A Bird’s Eye View: Socio-Economic, Demographic, and Agricultural Trends Facing Kentucky

A Bird’s Eye View:A Bird’s Eye View:

Socio-Economic, Demographic, and Agricultural Trends Facing

Kentucky

Julie N. ZimmermanDepartment of Community and Leadership Development

Community and Economic Development Extension Program

Presentation to the Regional Issues and Program Committee Orientation. Sept. 30, 2003

Cooperative Extension RegionsCooperative Extension Regions

WesternWestern

CentralCentralEasternEastern

GoalsGoals

Look at some issues and trends facing KY

Look at the distribution across the state with an eye towards issues and trends in regions and that extend beyond one region’s boundaries

Not all issues and trends and not enough time to go into depth on any single issue (“Bird’s Eye View”)

Drprt100

Drop 0ut Rates Grades 7-12 per 100 Students Enrolled (2000-01 school year)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 3.2

Data Source: Kentucky Kids Count

4.0 to 9.3

3.0 to 4.0

2.1 to 3.0

0.3 to 2.1

Legend

Drprt100

Drop 0ut Rates Grades 7-12 per 100 Students Enrolled (2000-2001 school year)

Equal Range

Kentucky = 3.2


7.0 to 9.3

4.8 to 7.02.5 to 4.80.3 to 2.5

Legend

2. FAMILYSingle parentsTeen birth ratesGrandparents Raising Grandkids

2. FAMILYSingle parentsTeen birth ratesGrandparents Raising Grandkids

3. COMMUNITYUnemployment JobsMedian Household IncomePoverty RatesWorking Poor

3. COMMUNITYUnemployment JobsMedian Household IncomePoverty RatesWorking Poor

Some IssuesSome IssuesFacing KYFacing KY

Some IssuesSome IssuesFacing KYFacing KY

1. PEOPLEPopulationHouseholdsAgingRace & EthnicityEducation

1. PEOPLEPopulationHouseholdsAgingRace & EthnicityEducation

4. AGRICULTUREFarmsLand/Size of FarmsOff Farm WorkAging Farmers

4. AGRICULTUREFarmsLand/Size of FarmsOff Farm WorkAging Farmers

Pcpop9000

Percent Change in the Total Percent Change in the Total Population, 1990-2000. Population, 1990-2000.

Quartiles

= Population decline

Data Source: 2000 Census

Kentucky = 9.7%

15.3% to 73.0%

8.9% to 15.3%

4.2% to 8.9%

-9.2% to 4.2%

High growth area

Legend

Pcpop9000

Change in the Total Change in the Total Population, 1990-2000Population, 1990-2000


Kentucky = 9.7%

Yellow = Population Stable or Increase

Red = Population Decline

Legend

Pchh9000

Percent Change in the Percent Change in the Number of Households Number of Households (1990-2000)(1990-2000)

Quartiles

High growth area


Kentucky = 15.3%

20.9% to 73.4%

15.0% to 20.9%

9.1% to 15.0%

-4.2% to 9.1%

= Population decline

Legend

Netmig

Net Migration, 1990-1999Net Migration, 1990-1999

Kentucky had net in-migration

Data Source: 2000 Census & 1999 Estimate

Yellow = More in migration than out migrationRed = More out migration than in migration

Legend

Percent of the Population Ages 65 and Over in Kentucky

12.6% 12.6% 12.5% 12.3% 12.6%13.8%

15.4%17.0%

18.3%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%C

ensu

s19

90

Est

imat

e19

95

Cen

sus

2000

Pro

ject

ion

2005

Pro

ject

ion

2010

Pro

ject

ion

2015

Pro

ject

ion

2020

Pro

ject

ion

2025

Pro

ject

ion

2030

Per

cen

t of

Tot

al P

opu

lati

on

(Middle Series Projections)

Data Source: Census Bureau Projections

Pc65pl00

Percent of Total Population Percent of Total Population that is 65 years or Older that is 65 years or Older (2000)(2000)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 12.5%

High concentrations


15.0% to 18.5%

13.4% to 15.0%

11.5% to 13.4%

7.0% to 11.5%

Legend

Pop65

Projected Share of the Population Projected Share of the Population that is 65 years and over in 2030 that is 65 years and over in 2030 (Middle Series)(Middle Series)

Quartiles

Data Source: Census Bureau Projections

Kentucky = 18.3%

23.3% to 30.0%20.3% to 23.3%18.1% to 20.3%10.4% to 18.1%

Legend

High concentration in part due to out migration

Pcafram00

Percent of People Reporting One Percent of People Reporting One Race Only who are Race Only who are African American African American (2000)(2000)

Equal Range


Kentucky = 7.4%

18.2% to 24.3%12.2% to 18.2%

6.1% to 12.2%0.0% to 6.1%

Legend

Pchisp00

Percent of Total Population Percent of Total Population that is Hispanic or Latino that is Hispanic or Latino of Any Race (2000)of Any Race (2000)

Equal Range


Kentucky = 1.5%

3.9% to 4.8%

3.0% to 3.9%

2.2% to 3.0%

1.3% to 2.2%

0.4% to 1.3%

Legend

allnotwel

Of Those Who Speak Spanish Of Those Who Speak Spanish (Native or Foreign Born), (Native or Foreign Born), Percent Who Do Not Speak Percent Who Do Not Speak English Well or at All (2000)English Well or at All (2000)

Equal Range


Kentucky = 25.8%

48.1% to 64.1%

32.1% to 48.1%

16.0% to 32.1%

0.0 %to 16.0%

Legend

Teenbirth

Teen Birth Rates (Births per 1,000 Teen Birth Rates (Births per 1,000 Females Ages 15-17) (1996-2000)Females Ages 15-17) (1996-2000)

Equal Range

Kentucky = 33 Births per 1,000 Females ages 15-17


50.7 to 64.0

37.5 to 50.7

24.2 to 37.5

11.0 to 24.2

Legend

Pcteenb

Change in Teen Birth Rate (Births per Change in Teen Birth Rate (Births per 1,000 Females Ages 15-17), (1986-90 to 1,000 Females Ages 15-17), (1986-90 to 1996-2000)1996-2000)

Kentucky = -21.4


Red = No Change or Increase

Yellow = Decrease

Legend

Pcsingfam

Percent of all Families with Percent of all Families with Children who are Single Parent Children who are Single Parent Families (2000)Families (2000)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 28.2%

Data Source: 2000 Census/Kentucky Kids Count

28.2% to 42.5%

25.5% to 28.2%

23.5% to 25.5%

15.6% to 23.5%

Legend

Pcgsingfam

Percent Change in the Number Percent Change in the Number of Families with Children who of Families with Children who are Single Parent Families are Single Parent Families (1990-2000)(1990-2000)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 33.8%

59.3% to 124.2%

40.6% to 59.3%

21.8% to 40.6%

-17.5% to 21.8%

Data Source: 2000 Census/Kentucky Kids Count

Legend

Grandp

Percent of Grandparents Living with Percent of Grandparents Living with Own Grandchildren under age 18 Own Grandchildren under age 18 andand Who are Responsible for their Who are Responsible for their Grandchildren (2000)Grandchildren (2000)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 51.5%


60.3% to 87.5%

53.5% to 60.3%

48.7% to 53.5%

32.4% to 48.7%

Legend


Eduational Attainment of Population Ages 18-64 Years Old in Kentucky (2000)

High School Graduate (includes

equivalency)34.7%

Some College or Associate Degree

27.5%

Bachelor's, Professional

Degree or more16.7%

Less than HS Graduate

21.1%

Pchsless

Percent of Population Ages 18-Percent of Population Ages 18-64 who have less than High 64 who have less than High School Graduate (2002)School Graduate (2002)

Equal Range

Kentucky = 21.1%


36.7% to 45.0%

28.5% to 36.7%

20.2% to 28.5%

12.0% to 20.2%

Net Out-Migration Counties

Legend

Pchs

Percent of Population Ages 18-Percent of Population Ages 18-64 who are a High School 64 who are a High School Graduate (incl. equivalency) Graduate (incl. equivalency) (2002)(2002)

Equal Range

Kentucky = 34.7%


42.3% to 49.4%

35.1% to 42.3%

28.0% to 35.1%

20.9% to 28.0%

Legend

Pcsmcol

Percent of Population Ages 18-64 Percent of Population Ages 18-64 who have some College (2002)who have some College (2002)

Equal Range

Kentucky = 27.5%


31.9% to 38.5%

25.3% to 31.9%

18.7% to 25.3%

12.1% to 18.7%

Legend

Pcbachm

Percent of Population Ages 18-Percent of Population Ages 18-64 who have Professional, 64 who have Professional, Bachelors Degree or more (2002)Bachelors Degree or more (2002)

Equal Range

Kentucky = 16.7%


25.7% to 32.8%

18.7% to 25.7%

11.6% to 18.7%

4.6% to 11.6 %

Legend

Unemplo02

Annual Average Unemployment Annual Average Unemployment Rate (2002)Rate (2002)

Equal Range

Kentucky = 5.6%

10.5% to 13.0%

7.9% to 10.5%

5.4% to 7.9%

2.9% to 5.4%

Legend

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Estimates

Average Annual Unemployment Rates for Kentucky and the United States (1998-2002)

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Un

emp

loym

ent

Kentucky

United States

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Estimates

pcunempl

Percent Change in the Annual Percent Change in the Annual Average Unemployment Rate Average Unemployment Rate (2000-2002)(2000-2002)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 36.6%


56.3% to 145.2%

30.1% to 56.3%

7.3% to 30.1%

-38.5% to 7.3%

Legend

pcunempl

Change in the Annual Average Change in the Annual Average Unemployment Rate (2000-Unemployment Rate (2000-2002)2002)

Kentucky = 36.6%


Red = Increase

Yellow = Decrease

Legend

Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS

Total Full and Part-Time Employment in Kentucky (1998-2001)

2,254,494

2,298,340

2,341,319

2,318,889

2,200,000

2,220,000

2,240,000

2,260,000

2,280,000

2,300,000

2,320,000

2,340,000

2,360,000

1998 1999 2000 2001

Num

ber

of J

obs

Employch

Change in Total Full and Part-Time Change in Total Full and Part-Time Employment (2000-2001)Employment (2000-2001)

Kentucky = -22,430


Yellow = Increase or No Change

Red = Decrease

Legend

Manuf

Percent of Total Employment Percent of Total Employment in Manufacturing (2001)in Manufacturing (2001)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 12.9%


19.8% to 54.2%

11.7% to 19.8%

6.4% to 11.7%

0.0% to 6.4%

Data not disclosed

Legend

Retail

Percent of Total Employment in Percent of Total Employment in Retail (2001)Retail (2001)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 11.6%


13.1% to 19.8%

11.0% to 13.1%

8.9% to 11.0%

0.0% to 8.9%

Data not disclosed

Legend

Hhinc99

Median Household Income Median Household Income (1999)(1999)

Quintiles (5)

Kentucky = $33,672


$36,432 to $63,229

$31,776 to $36,432

$28,089 to $31,776

$22,064 to $28,089

$15,805 to $22,064

Legend

Pchhinc

Percent Change in Median Percent Change in Median Household Income 1989-1999 Household Income 1989-1999 (Adjusted to 1999 dollars)(Adjusted to 1999 dollars)

Quintiles (5)

Kentucky = 14.5%

Data Source: 2000 Census/Kentucky State Data Center

26.8% to 59.0%

20.2% to 26.8%

16.2% to 20.2%

11.1% to 16.2%

-7.5% to 11.1%

Legend

Pov2000

Total Poverty Rate (2000)Total Poverty Rate (2000)

Quintiles (5)

Kentucky = 15.8%


26.4 to 45.4

18.6 to 26.4

15.4 to 18.6

12.3 to 15.4

4.1 to 12.3

Legend

Pcpvwork

Percent of all Families Below Poverty Percent of all Families Below Poverty with at least One Adult Working at with at least One Adult Working at Least Part-Time or More (2000)Least Part-Time or More (2000)

Quartiles

Kentucky = 52.1%


58.7% to 70.7%

54.2% to 58.7%

46.5% to 54.2%

27.3% to 46.5%

Legend

27.3% - 46.5%

Chgallf

Change in the Number Change in the Number of Farms of Farms

(1992-1997)(1992-1997)

Yellow = Increase

Red = Decrease

Data Source: 1992 & 1997 Agriculture Censuses

Kentucky = -8.9%

Legend

chgsizef

Change in the Average Change in the Average Size of FarmSize of Farm

(1992-1997)(1992-1997)


Kentucky = 7.3%

Yellow = Increase

Red = Decrease

Legend

Offfarm

Percent of Operators Working 200 Percent of Operators Working 200 Days or more Off the Farm Days or more Off the Farm (1997)(1997)

Quartiles

Data Source: 1997 Agriculture Census

Kentucky = 40.4%

46.3% to 66.7%

43.2% to 46.3%

39.4% to 43.2%

31.4% to 39.4%

Legend

Agefarm8797

Change in the Average Age of Change in the Average Age of Farmer Operators Farmer Operators (1987-1997)(1987-1997)

Kentucky = 3.8%

Red = Increase

Yellow = Decrease or No Change

Legend


chglandf

Change in Acres of Land in Change in Acres of Land in Farms Farms

(1992-1997)(1992-1997)

Yellow = Increase

Red = Decrease


Kentucky = -2.4%

Legend

Julie N. ZimmermanDept. of Community

and Leadership Development500 Garrigus

University of KentuckyLexington, KY 40546-0215

859-257-7583 ph.859-257-4354 fax

[email protected]

http://www.uky.edu/Ag/CLDhttp://www.ca.uky.edu/SNARL

Documents

A Bird’s Eye View: Socio-Economic, Demographic, and Agricultural Trends Facing Kentucky