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2551 21 .. 2551

ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

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Page 1: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

����ก������ ����������������������� 2551

���� � � ����21 �.�. 2551

Page 2: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

2

�������������� 100 !�"#�

��$%ก &&� �'�(#)��*� ?

Page 3: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

3

,�-���.��ก &������� (Business Overview)

.��ก &����������ก(/0��#

* .��ก &1������ (Upstream)

- ก��2�0 &��������&

* .��ก &��#���� (Downstream)- .��ก &���ก�3�

- .��ก &ก��1�0

o 1�02�#�"ก (Retail)

o 1�0(�1��!ก��� (Industrial)

o 1�0�������!)(43� (Lubes)

Page 4: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

4

�5&&�#�"3�"61)(�����������

* �5&&�#-4��%�� (Fundamental)- (������ (Demand)- (����� (Supply)- ��$%ก & / ก������

* �5&&�#��� ��� � (Technical)- ก��2��)� (Transportation)- ก��ก�3� (Refinery)- ก��8)(�/����� (M&R)

o Turn around

- ก��ก��&�#� ���� (Distribution)o *9*!�� (���ก�3� / ����������)o �� / 0 (�)(�)����������3�)o �4(/����ก�������<�ก��

Page 5: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

5

�5&&�#�"3�"61)(����������� (1)()

* �5&&�#���& 1� �#� (Psychological)

- ,�� ��%���1�� (Geopolitics)

* ��"#�,�-���ก�� �4(�2(�6��6 1��#=!�)

8�(�0 (��� /"#

( ��ก / ( !�)��

��� 8"#

� �8� ()�

*�&" �"#

�>ก8 �ก

- ����*�)��/=�,�� ,�� / ก��ก)(ก�����#

1����((กก��

1��ก"ก�/ก�)�/)�#ก0 �0�<�� Kurd

Page 6: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

6

�5&&�#�"3�"61)(����������� (1)()

* ,�#.���<�1 / ,�#- /�1 1)�� ?

- -�#� / �����)�� / 6)�0 �*!�

- �,�-(�ก���"3 ����#

!���&�0 / ��(�&�0

* �5&&�#0���ก�� ก>�ก��*� (Speculative)

- ก��84�(2�#=�1�0)��!��� (Paper trade)

- ก���#ก#��#2(�ก(����1)��? (Hedge Funds / Non – commercial fund)

1�0 � � (Money Market)

1�0��� (Capital Market)

Page 7: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

7

�5&&�#�"3�"61)(����������� (1)()

1�0� �����,�,��@� (Commodities Market)

o � ���� ก$1� – 2���/2����-0/2�����"/��3� !4(�

o � ��)1)�� ? – !>ก/�(�0�/�(����2��/�(����/ � �

o -����� – �������0 //���������� �>&���/กA�8.���<�1

- �)� � ��(�1��0(ก /"�#=� USA

o ����6��6��2(��)� � � (()(��)�/2>��)�)

o (�1��0(ก /"�#2(� FED- - 3�2B��/0�

Page 8: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

8

1���� ��"#/ �"#/����1�(�ก���&�0!��������

(���/��� �1)(���)

�� Demand Supply Total Supply - Demand

OPEC Non - OPEC

2006 84.7 35.3 49.3 84.6 -0.1

2007 85.8 34.8 49.9 84.7 -1.1

2008 87.2 36.3 50.7 87.0 -0.2

Page 9: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

9

MBDMBD

Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity & Demand Growth

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Asic Pacific Capacity Additional Capacity Demand 1% Demand 2% Demand 3%

Source : Reuters, Platts, MS ,GS as of 07 Sep. 2007

Depends on Growth, the surplus might be in 2010 onwards.

Page 10: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

10

Thailand Supply/Demand Forecast

KBDKBD

Page 11: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

11

GRM & MKM = ?

• GRM = Spread between crude & products

• MKM = Spread between retail price &

ex. Refinery price

Page 12: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

12

$/BBL

Product Spread vs Dubai (BCP outlook)

Page 13: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

13

Product Spread vs Dubai (BCP outlook)

$/BBL

Page 14: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

14

GRM (PQI) Forecast$/BBL

� �������������� 1 � 2 ���������� �������ก��ก����������� ��!"#�#�����$�%����#���

Page 15: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

15

+6+1291686250DUBAI

+7+1196736655BRENT

+6+997726657WTI

- 3�2B��/0� 50/49

- 3�2B��/0� 49/48

C"3#�.�.51

C"3#�� 50 C"3#�� 49 C"3#�� 48�������0 /

�����������0 / - $/BBL

1���� ��"#/ �"#/�����������

Page 16: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

16

1���� ��"#/ �"#/�����������

+8+13110857764�������0" 8

+9

+59

+8

+52

78

507

58

376

49

317

41

265

������� 1� ($ /BBL)($/Mton)

+6+13111878168������� ��43(�/ �

+10+11105837362 /�8 � 95

- 3�2B��/0�50/49

- 3�2B��/0�49/48

C"3#�.�.51 C"3#�� 50 C"3#�� 49 C"3#�� 48���������� �>&���

�������������� �>&���- $/BBL

Page 17: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

17

2008 Oil Price Outlook:

• Split opinion: uptrend & downtrend

• Uptrend analyst

-100/120 US $/bbl.

• Downtrend analyst

- 80/85 US $/bbl.

Page 18: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

18

Uptrend Analyst:

• Supply tight

-demand > supply

-87/88 mbpd v.s. 86.3 mbpd

-lower inventories - OECD countries

• Economic growth

-Asia & ME

-offset US economic slowdown

Page 19: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

19

Uptrend (continued)

• OPEC attitudes

-raise up target rice

-from 50-60 $/bbl.

-to 80-90 $/bbl.

-production quota – maintain or trim down

• Weak US dollar

-promote commodities/speculation

-fundamentals = 2/3

-speculation/weak $ = 1/3

Page 20: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

20

Low trend Analyst:

• US economy

-slowdown/recession

• Supply ease

-more production

-OPEC 0.5 mbpd (mostly SAUDIARABIA)

-N-OPEC 0.8 mbpd (mostly RUSSIA)

Page 21: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

21

Low trend Analyst (continued)

• Geopolitical tension ease

-IRAN/IRAQ/ME

• More usage of bio-fuels

-ethanol/bio-diesel

-from 6-7billion gallons/yr. in 2007

-to 9 billion gallons/yr. in 2008

Page 22: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

22

Low trend Analyst (continued)

• Refinery capacity

-limited in 2007

-debottled neck in 2008

-1.0 mbpd in SAUDIARABIA

-0.6 mbpd in INDIA

-arbitrage to US/EU

Page 23: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

23

������������������� 2551* �����)�&���(#�)=���0�/��� - WTI 80 – 100 $/BBL

- Brent 70 – 90 $/BBL

- Dubai 60 - 80 $/BBL

- /�8 � 90-100 $/BBL (=���� �� 30-35 /��/ 1�)

- 0" 8 100-110 $/BBL (=���� �� 28-30 /��/ 1�)- ������� 1� 450 – 500 $/Ton

* �5&&�#�"3�"6ก���/1)(�����������=���!���

- ก�� &� � 1 /�1��� ��$%ก &2(���� ��6��=<����������#=!�)

US/&"�/�"3��H�/( � 0"#/Asian/EU

- ก��1�0� �=&2(�ก�)� OPEC =�ก��ก��!�0���1��ก��6 1

- ก����ก��6 1����(� (Excess Capacity) 2(�6��6 1�������

OPEC/Non – OPEC (Saudiarabia/Russia)

- ����*�)��/=�,�� ,�� (Geopolitic)

- �,�-(�ก��

Page 24: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

24

Question & Answer

Page 25: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

25

Page 26: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

26

GRM (PQI by Crude) on BCP Priceset$/BBL

Domestic crude contributes higher margin.

Page 27: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

27

#$#%&'(ก(*+,-.(/ก**0'12(0%'3+4567

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2435 (�.5) 2463 2491 2519 2549

KBD

2544/2549 � 3�&��!�)�#�������กA��8R(�/*/�(0" 8

� 3�����������กA�0 2����&��!�)�# 2435=���� ��*�#

ก��!���������ก�3��������S��2��0.ก 25021,000 BBL / ���

#ก กก��=<�2538���1�ก�3�=�������� /�8 �

Thail

and

Oil D

eman

dTh

ailan

d Oi

l Dem

and

�_00�� � �ก�� ���ก�3��������!)��ก�"3<)(�����" 2483�"ก����ก��6 1 1,000 BBL/���

2507 � 3� �_00�� � �ก�����ก�3�/��&�ก�*�#((#�

2534��%/�(#1����1��������

Source: ก��.��ก &-�����, �_�1� "#� �4(��#��

Page 28: ก ˘ ˇ 2551 · 4 ˘5&& # "3 "6 1)( * ˘5&& #-4 % (Fundamental) - (˛˘ (Demand)-(˛˘ (Supply)- $ %ก & / ก ˛ * ˘5&& # (Technical) - ก2) (Transportation) - กก 3 (Refinery

28

Thailand Demand & Supply Balance