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����ก������ ����������������������� 2551
���� � � ����21 �.�. 2551
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�������������� 100 !�"#�
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,�-���.��ก &������� (Business Overview)
.��ก &����������ก(/0��#
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1���� ��"#/ �"#/����1�(�ก���&�0!��������
(���/��� �1)(���)
�� Demand Supply Total Supply - Demand
OPEC Non - OPEC
2006 84.7 35.3 49.3 84.6 -0.1
2007 85.8 34.8 49.9 84.7 -1.1
2008 87.2 36.3 50.7 87.0 -0.2
9
MBDMBD
Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity & Demand Growth
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Asic Pacific Capacity Additional Capacity Demand 1% Demand 2% Demand 3%
Source : Reuters, Platts, MS ,GS as of 07 Sep. 2007
Depends on Growth, the surplus might be in 2010 onwards.
10
Thailand Supply/Demand Forecast
KBDKBD
11
GRM & MKM = ?
• GRM = Spread between crude & products
• MKM = Spread between retail price &
ex. Refinery price
12
$/BBL
Product Spread vs Dubai (BCP outlook)
13
Product Spread vs Dubai (BCP outlook)
$/BBL
14
GRM (PQI) Forecast$/BBL
� �������������� 1 � 2 ���������� �������ก��ก����������� ��!"#�#�����$�%����#���
15
+6+1291686250DUBAI
+7+1196736655BRENT
+6+997726657WTI
- 3�2B��/0� 50/49
- 3�2B��/0� 49/48
C"3#�.�.51
C"3#�� 50 C"3#�� 49 C"3#�� 48�������0 /
�����������0 / - $/BBL
1���� ��"#/ �"#/�����������
16
1���� ��"#/ �"#/�����������
+8+13110857764�������0" 8
+9
+59
+8
+52
78
507
58
376
49
317
41
265
������� 1� ($ /BBL)($/Mton)
+6+13111878168������� ��43(�/ �
+10+11105837362 /�8 � 95
- 3�2B��/0�50/49
- 3�2B��/0�49/48
C"3#�.�.51 C"3#�� 50 C"3#�� 49 C"3#�� 48���������� �>&���
�������������� �>&���- $/BBL
17
2008 Oil Price Outlook:
• Split opinion: uptrend & downtrend
• Uptrend analyst
-100/120 US $/bbl.
• Downtrend analyst
- 80/85 US $/bbl.
18
Uptrend Analyst:
• Supply tight
-demand > supply
-87/88 mbpd v.s. 86.3 mbpd
-lower inventories - OECD countries
• Economic growth
-Asia & ME
-offset US economic slowdown
19
Uptrend (continued)
• OPEC attitudes
-raise up target rice
-from 50-60 $/bbl.
-to 80-90 $/bbl.
-production quota – maintain or trim down
• Weak US dollar
-promote commodities/speculation
-fundamentals = 2/3
-speculation/weak $ = 1/3
20
Low trend Analyst:
• US economy
-slowdown/recession
• Supply ease
-more production
-OPEC 0.5 mbpd (mostly SAUDIARABIA)
-N-OPEC 0.8 mbpd (mostly RUSSIA)
21
Low trend Analyst (continued)
• Geopolitical tension ease
-IRAN/IRAQ/ME
• More usage of bio-fuels
-ethanol/bio-diesel
-from 6-7billion gallons/yr. in 2007
-to 9 billion gallons/yr. in 2008
22
Low trend Analyst (continued)
• Refinery capacity
-limited in 2007
-debottled neck in 2008
-1.0 mbpd in SAUDIARABIA
-0.6 mbpd in INDIA
-arbitrage to US/EU
23
������������������� 2551* �����)�&���(#�)=���0�/��� - WTI 80 – 100 $/BBL
- Brent 70 – 90 $/BBL
- Dubai 60 - 80 $/BBL
- /�8 � 90-100 $/BBL (=���� �� 30-35 /��/ 1�)
- 0" 8 100-110 $/BBL (=���� �� 28-30 /��/ 1�)- ������� 1� 450 – 500 $/Ton
* �5&&�#�"3�"6ก���/1)(�����������=���!���
- ก�� &� � 1 /�1��� ��$%ก &2(���� ��6��=<����������#=!�)
US/&"�/�"3��H�/( � 0"#/Asian/EU
- ก��1�0� �=&2(�ก�)� OPEC =�ก��ก��!�0���1��ก��6 1
- ก����ก��6 1����(� (Excess Capacity) 2(�6��6 1�������
OPEC/Non – OPEC (Saudiarabia/Russia)
- ����*�)��/=�,�� ,�� (Geopolitic)
- �,�-(�ก��
24
Question & Answer
25
26
GRM (PQI by Crude) on BCP Priceset$/BBL
Domestic crude contributes higher margin.
27
#$#%&'(ก(*+,-.(/ก**0'12(0%'3+4567
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2435 (�.5) 2463 2491 2519 2549
KBD
2544/2549 � 3�&��!�)�#�������กA��8R(�/*/�(0" 8
� 3�����������กA�0 2����&��!�)�# 2435=���� ��*�#
ก��!���������ก�3��������S��2��0.ก 25021,000 BBL / ���
#ก กก��=<�2538���1�ก�3�=�������� /�8 �
Thail
and
Oil D
eman
dTh
ailan
d Oi
l Dem
and
�_00�� � �ก�� ���ก�3��������!)��ก�"3<)(�����" 2483�"ก����ก��6 1 1,000 BBL/���
2507 � 3� �_00�� � �ก�����ก�3�/��&�ก�*�#((#�
2534��%/�(#1����1��������
Source: ก��.��ก &-�����, �_�1� "#� �4(��#��
28
Thailand Demand & Supply Balance