WE haVE a FuTuRE!

Do we have a future?

Trends. ProsPeCTs. soLUTIons.

FOUR BRAINS FOR THE FUTURE

02: ROUND TABLE

In this magazine, we address Austria’s future prospects. How will we live and work in 40 years? How will we feed ourselves? Which radical changes are unavoidable? One of the biggest challenges facing all of us is the complete reorganisation of the

way we deal with energy. As the end of fossil fuels is fixed, we have to invest massively in renewable energy sources. And, as households and people used to mobility, we have to forge new paths. Four experts discuss this big issue for the future.

Moderation Ralf Strobl Fotos Daniel Gebhart de Koekkoek

ALEXANDER EGIT (GREENPEACE), DIETER DREXEL (FEDERATION OF AUSTRIAN INDUSTRIES), PETER LAYR (EVN) AND VIENNA UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY PROFESSOR AND ARTIST CHRISTOPH ÜBERHUBER (FROM LEFT TO RIGHT)

04: ROUND TABLE

e met four experts for an exciting discussion about Austria’s future prospects – primarily in the energy sector. But what role does each individual have to play? And what about politics and economics? And why is education a key factor in our success and the potential to make the necessary energy transition a reality? At the discussion were Dr Peter Layr, engineer and EVN spokesperson; Alexander Egit, managing director at Greenpeace in Central and Eastern Europe; Dieter Drexel, engineer and deputy head of Industrial Policy at the Federation of Austrian Industries (IV); and Christoph Überhuber, Vienna University of Technology professor and artist who addresses future and crisis scenarios in his work (www.ueberhuber.at).

Together with Greenpeace and the Austrian labour union vida, EVN has commis-sioned a study of energy change in Austria. What’s that about?

Layr: Our sector, but primarily EVN, has had a change of consciousness. It is difficult in today’s times to orientate oneself towards the medium- to long-term future. Energy providers invest long term and therefore require stable general conditions. This study shows us what is possible and which scenarios are basically excluded. Now we know: there are scenarios that were previously unthinkable for our sector. It’s about reliable general conditions that won’t be thrown out every few years. Now we’re incorporating Greenpeace’s expertise into our business. We need the NGOs – precisely because they are critical – as an aid to orientation. Egit: Energy issues require a wide consensus in society. If EVN, the union and Greenpeace are now thinking about the energy issues of the future together, then that is simply more powerful.

But is such a ‘coalition’ still something very new?Egit: It is new, courageous and surprising. Our understanding of our study is that it’s a signal to politicians that we all expect and demand a legal framework in favour of this energy transition. But to the results of the study: if we really want to achieve this by 2050, then we have to start it now and reduce energy use by 50% with better energy efficiency. That is an unbelievable paradigm shift in energy economics that has to make clear: how can I, as an energy provider, develop a business model where I will sell less energy but still make money? Our study has, however, shown that there are two sectors where there is a very high potential for savings: private households and transport. From a production point of view, it’s clear that we have to focus on renewable energy sources. The study shows that we have to reduce fossil fuel use by 90% by 2050. That’s why it’s now all about wind energy, photovoltaics – where we have surprisingly large usable spaces by the way – and, with some reservations, about water power, because nature limits us here some extent. The focus on a tax reform with green incentives is also important. Politicians have to set a clear, long-term general framework for the economy. The economy – it can do it. It’s already doing it. It doesn’t need any assistance. It doesn’t need any subsidies. It needs a long-term, clear general framework.

WMr Drexel, is that right? The economy can do it?

Drexel: The necessity of transforming our energy system is not contested by the economy or by industry. The general line of attack is clear: more energy efficiency and a focus on renewable energies. But there’s another element at play that is given too little attention: industry regards itself as an innovator. That’s why the focus has to be directed more forcefully at research and development to find solutions that enable the change in energy systems.

Mr Überhuber, research and development is your field of expertise ... Überhuber: These days, if the politicians decide that it’s necessary to make 300 people redundant from the Academy of Sciences – then things would really not look so rosy any more. And we are unfortunately seeing it again: savings are being made in places where the politicians believe it won’t have an impact on the next election. So we are holding back on the future, and on all those things concerning the next 40 years that the study talks about. And I want to throw in another, provocative thesis: new models that are based on the Club of Rome’s The Limits to Growth show that if we don’t take massive countermeasures in many areas, then there will be a global collapse in 2030. Therefore: we are clearly on the brink of a financial crisis, predicted by many, as well as a global ecological collapse. Egit: That’s right! We can’t hold back on the countermeasures any more. And that’s why I’m horrified by the political decision-making speed in Austria – it’s far too slow. I will say it clearly: if we want energy change, then we have to reset our course as early as possible. And then we’ll have the chance to implement it without serious loss of wealth. Drexel: Completely right, we have to become more energy-efficient. Energy prices in the next 40 years are only going to get higher. That’s why we have to offer people a lifestyle in which they can get by with relatively low energy use – and without critical restrictions with regard to comfort. This requires that energy providers focus more on the concept of energy service provision; that means less on energy provision and more on what people actually want from energy, for example, light and heating. And if we take a look at the two key issues of transport and households, then the answer can only be that we have to take courageous and decisive steps today. There’s no longer a necessity for new buildings to consume energy today. The technologies for passive-house standards, or at least low-energy house standards, are fully developed and should be comprehensively implemented. And with the issue of transport, we need a concept for the intelligent use of carriers – perhaps with the help of economic incentives. It therefore makes complete sense for the Federation of Austrian Industries to introduce a revenue-neutral vehicle toll that costs more for the frequent driver, but makes simply owning a vehicle cheaper. Such a toll could be varied according to emissions class, but also spatially or temporally. All this combined could have an incentivising effect on the population.

If the decision is now made to implement a vehicle toll, then 80% of the population would be against it …

Layr: All these intentions would be fundamentally communicable to the population. Our wind farms are regionally accepted, after all. There is a need for action in the appropriation of tax revenues and in the whole issue of energy efficiency. If one leaves too many responsibilities in the hands of the regulators, not much will happen. The regulatory authority is not supposed to make energy policy; that’s the task of the responsible minister.

in Russia or Azerbaijan. I still believe, however, that focusing primarily on the harmonisation of energy policy within Europe is the wrong decision. I endorse competition for the best brains, the best energy concepts and efficiency measures. I have nothing against holding a dialogue at a European level. But I don’t believe in waiting for Europe. We have to take things into our own hands. Layr: We are also committed to energy independence. But it must be possible for us to generate renewable energy in Albania, Bulgaria and Norway. Otherwise we restrict ourselves and waste wealth. Using wind power in the North Sea is more attractive than us putting up the latest wind turbine next to the latest house. It’s important in Austria to invest in whatever is most efficient, whether that’ wind, water, solar or biomass. It must be possible in these sectors for all market participants to cross international borders. And the question is: must Brussels take so many responsibilities out of our hands? In our sector, absolutely not. Deregulation has enormously damaged the ability to solve future problems in our sector. In summary, European concurrence is necessary, but we reject heavy-handed interventions into market forces. Private businesses know how to establish themselves best. Egit: Right. But allow me to point out another problem: if we demand an aggressive extension of renewable energies, we will also need pipelines for transport. At the moment, there is no consensus on this matter with the Austrian population. But it will be crucial that this consensus is met together, because this is the only way people can be convinced to participate in decision-making. Anything else would be grist to the mill of radicalisation with more than a hint of populism. And then it wouldn’t be about what is environmentally sound and economically justifiable any more. Less educated people and those who have the feeling that they are not involved fall into the trap of populism.

So is education also a key factor in the question of the energy transition?Überhuber: Without appropriately educated people, there will be no innovation, and Austria will have no future. It’s so banal that we shouldn’t waste another word on it. We deal too shabbily with our higher vocational schools, for instance. With small changes – for example, the addition of an extra year – graduates of this kind of school could matriculate with a bachelor’s degree, and the whole problem of the lack of academics in Austria would be solved in one fell swoop. I don’t even want to talk about the austerity measures at the universities; it’s scandalous what’s going on there. The Vienna University of Technology currently has a savings target of 10% and outgoing personnel will not be replaced. That’s really insane. Drexel: The issue of education is, for me, a very central one because it’s a requisite for innovation. Education is also important for the acceptance of energy structures and infrastructures so that connections can be recognised and a dialogue enabled.Layr: The issue of the education crisis hits us hard as a member of the Austrian economy. For example, we look for and find too few technicians. For EVN, it’s a competitive disadvantage if technical universities have to make savings. But back to the networks: as long as the world of capital keeps giving the network operators a wide berth, we cannot establish a good European network. It’s also clear that, if I have the opportunity to invest with double-figure returns, why would I then invest in areas with a lower interest rate, such as networks? If there was more money to be earned there, then more would also be invested. Regulatory interventions are not providing a good service for Austria in this matter. Lowering the costs here means meddling with the security of provision. Even with the green electricity act (Ökostromgesetz), we need a long-term and sustainable orientation. We have had a few years of unnecessary standstill. I hope that Austria doesn’t’ lose its nerve in the matter of renewable energies and will continue to focus on wind, water, solar and biomass. :

It seems as though politicians and their reluctance to make decisions might be something of a bottleneck …

Egit: Eventually, politicians have to ask themselves: ‘Do I put money into encouraging car commuters or do I invest in public transport or in property renovation?’ It is, for example, clear: if I can link green incentives to housing subsidies, then I will already have had a massive effect. Drexel: I see it the exact same way. If we take a long-term perspective – up to the year 2050 – then important decisions must be made today, for example, in the construction and infrastructure sectors, as these will still exist in 40 years. In truth, many energy issues are not so complicated, and many basics are already known. We have resources that are getting ever scarcer. There are scientifically ensured timelines that prove the existence of climate change. Also from the standpoint of industry, it is important to take measures – definitely much more important than always losing ourselves in discussions about targets and forgetting to implement them.

I see that our group has diagnosed a massive failure of politics …Egit: Yes, that’s right. Our politicians have completely failed us, because we basically live in a post-democratic situation. Political parties and governments – not just in Austria – are now only capable of acting in a very restricted way. There are reasons for this: for example, extremely powerful lobbying groups, particularly industry, which can assert its own interests against those of society. What Mr Drexel said sounds good. The other thing is what the Federation of Austrian Industries is doing. If we really do now start to implement a reform of our tax system to include green incentives, then big industrial businesses will immediately turn around and say: ‘We’ll take our production abroad.’ And they usually win against the politicians. Layr: We have to address this situation very differently. Because there are certain energy-intensive industry sectors that do indeed have difficulties in getting behind the implementation of green incentives in the tax system. And I am concerned that it should not come to a de-industrialisation of Austria. But we are a member of the Federation of Austrian Industries, too. And some statements of other members around the issue of CO2 are somewhat excessive. If, for example, one calculates how much site relocation would actually cost, a move elsewhere would really make no economic sense.

So, how should we approach energy change?Layr: There are two general conditions: avoiding de-industrialisation and ensuring citizens have no loss of comfort. In order to do this, we need a general framework from the politicians so that we can implement these measures step by step. There used to be real think tanks – take our sector, for instance. Smart people from our sector, from the ministry, from industry, from the Austrian chamber of labour (Arbeiterkammer), etc., used to think about the future together. But today, our society is too focused on the short term – this goes from the financial system, via shareholder values, up to the flow of funds. There’s no long-term prospect that enables planning security. I would, however, find it sensible and nice if we could all succeed in forming think tanks again. And industry always used to set the pace … Drexel: Industry does its part, but the situation can still be considered somewhat further and more intensively, and industry will be part of the solution in the future, too. Let me just state the group consensus: we believe that, with all the importance of renewable energies, we still need a mainstay of fossil-energy provision – at least as a transitional technology. We are committed to a healthy diversification of the energy system. One always speaks of self-sufficiency with regard to energy in this context. We think, and I say this carefully, that this is an unsuitable concept for a small, open economy. Self-sufficiency is a national concept from the 19th century. But today, we are part of the EU. That’s why we should strongly link our ideas of a sustainable future for energy with the idea of a European energy area. An area in which different states with different strengths all play a part. Our idea is a harmonised energy area. That’s why we need a little more Europe in the energy issue, and not a little less. Egit: I like the term ‘energy independence’ better. It’s very important in this context that we do not over estimate the electricity sector. In Austria, electricity accounts for 20% of end use, and the rest is fossil fuels. This is a massive drain on public money. Especially in regions where we don’t really want it – for example

THE FUTURE IS DOABLE. WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN

NOW: POLITICIANS MUST HAVE THE COURAGE

TO SET A CLEAR, LONG-TERM GENERAL

FRAMEWORK.

6: SOCIETY

Interview Johannes Stühlinger

THE RADIUS OF TOLERANCE IS CONSTANTLY GROWING

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8: SOCIETY

atthias Horx (www.zukunftsinstitut.de) is one of the most renowned futurologists in Europe; in his new book Das Megatrend Prinzip: Wie die Welt von morgen entsteht (‘The mega-trend principle – how the world of tomorrow will develop’) (dva-verlag, 22.90 euros), he describes our society’s change processes. We conducted an interview with him, in which Horx takes a stance on the economic, social and societal future of Austria, Europe and the world.

When people paint a picture of the future, it’s quite often a black one. And now we see yet another article telling us that the world will end in 2012 …

Matthias Horx: People of all times and cultures have always been fascinated by apocalyptic myths and are always predicting new dates for Judgement Day. That’s a cultural constant. Particularly in our Christian cultural sphere, where it’s always about guilt and punishment. We are fundamentally ashamed of our wealth; in the expectation of doom lies a punishment fantasy. I will also add: you can make an awful lot of money with such prophecies! Around half of all Hollywood films today are dramas about the end of the world, and you can find all kinds of apocalypse experts lounging around on every talk show.

Concerns about our economic future seem to be a bit more realistic. Are these concerns well founded?

Horx: Wealth is not something that is eternally secured. One has to fight for it, constantly defend it and develop it by means of innovation, new laws and regulatory systems. But progressive societies are also more robust than we thought. They have all kinds of ways and means of changing themselves and learning. Crises occur at certain cyclical intervals when old systems become redundant. Let’s look at Europe: 20 years ago, we built Europe 1.0, a management system that has now crashed. The feedback loops weren’t solidly built. Countries could amass huge amounts of debt without consequences and delay reforms. The financial crisis caused by the banks in 2008 sped all this up, and its weaknesses have clearly come to light. And now we have to build Europe 2.0. New systems built on new insights. This kind of thing happens in all fields of humanity. If a person has marriage problems and just complains, then divorce is guaranteed. By contrast, if a person accepts the crisis and learns from it, then love will deepen. That’s how it is with Europe, too.

So what will Europe 2.0 look like?Horx: A confederation with greater integration and obligations and stricter rules. One could call this scenario ‘Eurobonds plus’ or ‘highly integrated Europe’. A strong rescue package will safeguard against the excesses of the financial markets, but one with tough conditions. The moment a European country has

accrued more debt than 60 to 70% of its GDP, it will lose autonomy over its budget and will be administered from Brussels. Perhaps we won’t achieve this on the first go. But those countries that want to participate in such a system could first build a new ‘core Europe’, which other countries will then join. Those that absolutely don’t want to – or can’t – will have to withdraw. I believe that the overwhelming majority will join ‘Eurobonds plus’.

But Europe today has other concerns right now – terrorism, neo-Nazis, burning cars. Will we also be afraid of ‘crazies’ in the future?

Horx: Extremism is an old constant. There are always sick or fanatic people on the fringes of society. But they cannot have a serious effect as long as the overall systems are more or less in order. In my youth in the 1970s, the streets were on fire in Europe time and again, there were all kinds of riots, occupied houses, social upheaval and strikes. There was terrorism as well – mostly from the left. Social movements were being formed at the same time, however – like the environmental movement– and these were incredibly important for the future. That’s how it’ll be today. We are experiencing the birth of a new ‘movement for societal integration’.

But in the past, this potential for destruction and violence had the most severe consequences ...

Horx: Our old Neanderthal brain is always telling us that the worst of the past will come back. But history doesn’t just repeat itself that simply. When terrorism was made a state principle in Germany at the time of the Nazis, it was a totally different situation. A divided Europe, torn apart by hundred-year wars and ‘traditional enmity’. Nation states that could delude themselves into believing they could rule the world. That is completely ruled out today. Those were different times, in which the world was not interconnected. But the world’s ‘connectivity’

mNobody needs a TV. Apart from the fact that the programme selection is getting steadily worse, you can stream every programme, every format, every film to every iPad, and every family member puts their own non-time-specific programme together any way. You don’t watch ZiB2 at a fixed time any more; you retrieve it specifically when you want to watch it. And there are, thank God, also ingenious appliances that in turn help us to control the excesses of technology. For example, the iPad has a tendency to really ‘eat’ appliances that would otherwise just hang around collecting dust and wasting batteries. The iPad is a weather station, a radio, a library, a news stand, a television channel, an atlas, an alarm clock and maybe sometime even a bread-cutting machine. It substitutes for other appliances. We should always consider technology in the context of social relationships, or ‘socio-technology’. The question of how people will cooperate and how families will organise themselves in future daily life is basically more exciting than the latest high-tech equipment.

To pose a naive question: will technology therefore by less important in 2050 than it is today?

Horx: It won’t dominate our lives as much as many utopians assert today. Technology is a part of our lives, but if it enslaves us, we will defend ourselves. There are many problems it can’t solve. Death, happiness, suffering, love – all that takes place outside of technology. Of course you can have 1,000 friends on Facebook, but that is more of a sign of social dysfunction than one of connectedness. On hundred years ago, people only had their relatives, the members of their own class and primarily of their immediate physical environment around them. The Internet now enables a huge amount of people to be potential friends and business or romantic partners. But we don’t yet have any psychological coping strategies for this; we haven’t learned any sociological techniques. That is much more decisive than a new 3-D TV that is more likely to just interfere with your social life. The Internet will experience a crisis in the next few years. A crisis of security, a crisis of collapse, a crisis of crime. But then it will reinvent itself as a sort of second guise of the person, in which we can connect with each other in a much more productive way. This will also mean that ways of working will change.

On the subject of work: what does tomorrow’s world of work look like?Horx: There will be a lot fewer people that stay with a stable, constant employer in 20 years’ time. We will all be a bit more like entrepreneurs. The question with this is always: do we see this as emancipation or a threat? As long as we see this development as a threat, we cannot progress as a society.

The foundation of employment is always education. The Austrian school system has long been the grounds for vigorous debate ...

Horx: Our school system is still constructed on the principles of industrial manufacturing. Sit still, absorb knowledge, take oral and written exams. And then you are ‘educated’ and ‘certified’. Those words say it all, really. This has nothing to do with the decisive abilities of the future – with creativity, for example – or the ability to learn from cooperation. In order to change this, we have to completely change the educational situation. So no more teaching from the front: instead it will be lively, experimental and self-controlled lessons. Learning curiosity. Children love to learn up to the age of around eight or nine. Then the school system usually squeezes that out of them. An individualisation of lessons, too, is decisive. And this is already possible in some parts of the Anglo-Saxon countries, in Scandinavia or even in famous Finland. Leaving no one behind. Not standardising learning. Realising that everyone has talent in different areas. That learning is a process of discovery and development.

Why is this so difficult to change?Horx: Because this is about deeply seated, old norms that originated centuries ago and that we carry over from generation to generation. Learning has to hurt, to be painful. We experienced it like that in our childhood, after all. Why should the kids have it better today? That’s why the discourse around education is always a debate about discipline, about punishment, about negativity. Even though progressive education has been around for 100 years – for example, the Montessori approach. But people who can’t learn independently and enjoyably will only have limited success in the job markets of the future. And the countries that achieve this change and that design their education systems creatively will stand a much better chance in the future.

You drive an electric car. Is this the future of mobility?Horx: The energy efficiency of an electric car over medium distances is unbeatable. This will become a kind of second car evolution, as ever more people live in cities. We know that 90% of all journeys are less than 100 kilometres. With a little more infrastructure and falling battery prices, the electric car will prevail. For longer journeys, we will hire bigger cars or go by aeroplane.

But cars are much more than just vehicles. They are status symbols ...Horx: That won’t play such a large role in the future. The fact that men love cars more than their wives –that they have even become their cars (‘I’m parked over there!’) – has been a completely bizarre cultural episode. The age of petrol was really a little perverse. As an electrically mobile person, your perspectives change. When my wife and I drive past a petrol station, we always marvel at the many sad people there, who stick strange metal tubes into huge vehicles and squirt tonnes of stinking swill into them. That’s disgusting!

have more time to practise. This also produces a new love competence, in which the old gender roles are broken down. Divorce rates are currently decreasing in some European countries. This also shows humanity’s ability to learn. There are fewer marriages, but those who do marry stay together more steadily. And those that remain on their own will experience their singledom as much less of a shortcoming, and more of a chosen lifestyle.

This pushes the issue of tolerance ever further into the spotlight, doesn’t it?Horx: What was once abnormal is normal today. For example, same-sex marriage – 15 years ago, people could hardly even say the word. Today, it is largely accepted in Western cultures. And it will continue this way. The radius of tolerance will continue to increase.

This poses the logical question: how and where will we live? You yourself already live in a ‘future house’ ...

Horx: One always lives in the present, even if one faces forward. My house is called the ‘Future Evolution House’ because it conforms to the lifestyles of an ever-changing family. We are getting older. The children are leaving the house. Or coming back. We experiment with future technologies and designs in a practical way. We sort the wheat from the chaff. Are intelligent refrigerators sensible? Not at all. This house is a constantly developing project, just like every house or apartment where living people live. We’re also trying to disprove a false image of the future with this house. The term ‘future house’ often means ‘fully automated’ to most people. The inhabitants don’t have to do anything any more ...

And that’s wrong?Horx: Those are images from the 1960s and 1970s in which future was equated with full automation. But deep inside our characters, we are physical creatures. And the biggest problem of the future will be: how do we stay fit if we are getting increasingly older? If technology takes everything away from us, we will degenerate. The idea of being able to do everything with a remote control and lie on a sunlounger all day is a doom fantasy. A good house of the future should really keep us in constant movement. We love cooking, as many people have rediscovered in recent years. And cooking is always a chaotic, sensual process. And apart from that, technology is not always beneficial, quite the contrary. Many technological appliances are complicated, ugly and impractical, crude and superfluous. We are working on a ‘smart tech’ vision –technology that can be intuitively controlled, looks damned good and is ecologically sound.

Whilst we’re on the subject – how will we keep ourselves fit?Horx: Again, that ‘we’ that won’t exist in the future ... I can tell you what I personally am doing about it. I regularly go jogging, grow vegetables and mow the lawn myself. I find mowing the lawn relaxing, even meditative. I don’t have a lawn-cutting robot, for example; I have a manual mower. In other words: with regard to our technology, we have to also consider the question of empowerment. Where is technology harming us because it weans us off our natural abilities and human nature, and becomes a kind of prosthesis without which we can no longer live? And where does it coach us into a better quality of life? Where does it create potential for humanity’s growth? And where is it just a burden? This means that we have to ‘eliminate’ ever more technology.

‘Eliminate’ to what extent? Don’t we always want to have more instead of less?Horx: In our family we got rid of the central TV in the living room, for example.

Progressive societies are also more robust than we thought. They have all kinds of ways and means of changing themselves and learning.

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has massively increased in recent years and is currently accelerating rapidly. Economic and cultural groups, as well as wealth groups, will re-form themselves. We are living in the biggest economic boom of all time – if we take a global perspective. Two billion people in emerging countries are currently overcoming poverty. These are huge markets and forces of economic recovery that will not be halted by a European structural crisis.

Extremists often act with apparent or actual religious motivation. But what will we believe in in the future?

Horx: We are experiencing an increasing trend towards belief systems based on individual or small-group spirituality. It’s a kind of patchwork religiousness that allows each individual to ‘design’ their own spirituality. Eastern religions will play a large role in this.

What do these have that Christianity doesn’t? Horx: They’re practical without being too abstract. You can use them as exercises for dealing with life’s challenges. That’s why we’re experiencing the biggest boom in yoga, meditation and Buddhism. All of these will grow massively!

... And where will it peak?Horx: There are two ways: one in a new culture of magic that will become ever more shrill and twisted. Healing with stones, voodoo in everyday business and om-chanting to combat cancer. But in the long term, I can also see something like a secular, enlightened spirituality. There are ever more people for whom enlightenment and science are developing a spiritual sense. With the means of rational insight and the interconnection of the knowledge of various disciplines, a new, fascinating future sensibility could be developed. A belief in the evolution of human society in a complex cosmos.

The issue of love is being interpreted in a more scientific and less romanticised way. How will we love in 20 years?

Horx: There is an ever-decreasing amount of ‘we’ in love, too! The mega-trend of ‘individualisation’ is responsible for the fact that the variety of the kinds of love and relationships will get ever bigger. There will be all kinds of relationships. Young men marrying older women. Same-sex marriages will be normal. Maybe even temporary marriages. New forms of love, that are still rare today, will spread. We may also reach for tried-and-tested models. There may even be people who prefer an ‘arranged marriage’, because individuals then do not have to address the whole conflict between needs, eroticism and role issues.

And then?Horx: I believe that a new concept of love as the ‘co-evolution of autonomic individuals’ will become prevalent. We will learn to love in a new, adult way. We have ever more partners in the course of our lives before we settle on one life partner. Educated people in the cities today have perhaps eight or nine partners before settling on a long-term relationship with kids. And the average age of marriage in the European states is 31 years old. Just 30 years ago, it was 23. So we

10: LIVING

15 Intelligent refrigerator with integrated logistics and ordering system that automatically produces shopping lists, or places orders directly online. All information (e.g. shelf lives etc.) can be displayed on a screen. Using smart home solutions, it (but also especially the freezer) can be used as an energy store (energy surplus input and/or increased cooling power when energy is cheaper).

16 Modern information and entertainment centre. The TV becomes a universal interface with the outside world (TV on demand, Internet, video calling, etc.) Network development could make 3-D video con-ferencing possible.

17 A wood-burning stove provides auxiliary heating. Advantages: this uses renewable resources and cre-ates atmosphere. The latter will still be highly valued in 2050.

18 Intelligent washing machine that automatically switches on when the most electricity is available from the network.

19 Monitors are installed throughout the house as information, entertainment and control centres.

Conurbations are growing fast worldwide – as well as in Austria. This brings with it new problems, but also new opportunities.Experts explain what intelli-gent ‘smart cities’ could look like and what our ‘smart homes’ could become.

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01 With the help of controlled domestic ventilation systems, the thermal energy of the stale indoor air is transferred to the incoming fresh outside air.

02 A photovoltaic system generates electricity directly from solar energy. 03 The fluid that is circulated in the solar panels is

heated by sun rays and is transferred to domestic- and heated-water supplies in the heat exchanger (10).

04 Sun rays penetrate through a glass roof into the interior of the house in order to heat it. In order to avoid overheating in the summer, (adjustable) solar protection slats are installed on the roof.

05 The solid interior walls and ceilings are made from a heat-retaining material – bricks are most suitable here.

06 The house is primarily made out of wood: a renew-able, sustainable building material. 07 There are beds/raised beds at the front of the

house for partial self-supply of fruit and vegetables.

08 The smartphone becomes the central and mo-bile control unit of the house – from the heating and alarm system to the coffee machine. Everything can be controlled at the touch of a button. 09 Energy is extracted from the ground water (ther-

mal difference to the environment) with the help of a heat pump and used to heat water by the heat exchanger (10).

10 The ‘intelligent drain cover’ sends data electroni-cally – such as in the case of flooding, contamination, etc. – either to the home owner or directly to a central help desk.

11 The heat exchanger transfers energy generated by the solar panels and the heat pump to the house’s energy system.

12 The EVN ‘SmartHome Cube’ is a wireless central control system for the radiator thermostats. Its set-tings can be changed online using a PC or smartphone.

13 Batteries can store ‘excess’ energy.

14 Electric car with an energy supply to charge the batteries in the garage. A fully charged replacement battery (12) could perhaps also be used. In addition, the car battery can be used to store, for example, excess solar energy, but it could also serve as potential temporary storage for surplus mains electricity. Text Rainer Grünwald Illustration HOFMANN/hof-mann.at

12: LIVING

very day – traffic jams, smog and subway staff who squeeze people into the carriages during rush hour. If one considers everyday life in mega-cities like Tokyo-Yokohama (37.7 million inhabitants), Mexico City (23.6 million) or Mumbai (21.9 million), then the prospect of living in a super city in 2050 is moderately attractive. But in 2007, half the population lived in large cities; depending on various estimates, by 2050 it could be two-thirds to three-quarters. We are going to have to live closer together, as the world population is set to rise from seven billion to 9.6 billion by 2050. And Austria’s population is set to rise from 8.4 million to 9.4 million. And where will they live?

Alexander Hanika, head of analysis and projection at Statistik Austria: ‘In principle, the surrounding environs of big cities will be among the winners in terms of population increase. Cities will also be winners – however not to such a large extent. Vienna will grow from 1.7 million inhabitants to two million by 2050.’ The greater Vienna area will expand in the direction of Gänserndorf, Bratislava, Korneuburg, Tulln, Baden, Schwechat, Neusiedl and Eisenstadt. Hanika: ‘Taking the surrounding environs into account, the greater Vienna area could total three million inhabitants by 2050.’ This means that, in 2050, one third of Austria will live in a single mega-city.

Domestic statisticians are also predicting a large increase in the populations of the greater Graz area and Linz–Wels. The run on the large cities will, however, lead to other regions being more sparsely populated. Hanika: ‘The losers in this development will be the northern Waldviertel region, the southern Burgenland and the Mur–Mürz area.’

Smart city – a green cityThe usual solutions – such as even taller high-rises, wider urban mo-

torways, short-term pay-parking zones, parking permits, congestion charging and a little insulation – are not going to get to grips with the problems of future super cities. Even today, cities are massive energy eaters, consuming three-quarters of the world’s energy.

Masdar City. The solution for a green city of the future could be found in the desert sands of all places. Just 30 kilometres east of the capital city Abu Dhabi, ‘model eco-city’ Masdar City is being built in the United Arab Emirates. Masdar (in Arabic: ‘source’) has been designed to be largely carbon-neutral and waste-free, and to be an international centre for the research and testing of clean technologies. A ten-megawatt solar power plant outside the city will provide green energy; 120 kilometres south of Abu Dhabi, the energy provider Masdar Power is currently building one of the largest solar power plants (100 megawatts) in the world with Shams One. A 30-megawatt wind farm on Sir Bani Yas Island will provide auxiliary, carbon-free power. Inner city transport in Masdar City will be achieved by an underground ‘personal rapid transit’ system comprised of automated electric vehicles. The electric ‘podcars’ move along guideways; surface transport is reserved for pedestrians and cyclists. An overhead railway as well as a regional underground railway are planned to connect the individual districts. ‘Normal’ cars will not be allowed inside Masdar City.

The economic background to building the green experimental city Masdar City: Abu Dhabi wants to successfully change from being a classic oil producer to a renewable-energy technology developer.

Fujisawa SST – Panasonic’s smart city. Panasonic’s vision of a futuristic green city makes a very disciplined impression. The (nearly) carbon-neutral Fujisawa SST (or sustainable smart sown) is to be built on a 19-hectare former Panasonic factory site, and provide housing for 1,000 households and 3,000 residents. Due to solar power systems, fuel cells, storage batteries, heat pumps and a clever energy control system in every house, Fujisawa SST can have a completely self-sufficient power supply if necessary. Energy-saving domestic technology (home appliances, climate control, LED lighting) as well as a fleet of electric cars and bicycles are to reduce the carbon emissions of Panasonic’s eco-city to nearly zero.

Vincent Callebaut. Belgian architect Vincent Callebaut has adopted an interesting, if a little utopian, approach to green smart cities with his projects ‘Bionic Arch’ (Taichung City, Taiwan), ‘Dragonfly’ (New York) and ‘The Perfumed Jungle’ (Hong Kong, China). Callebaut’s towers covered in green vegetation are a little reminiscent of the ideas of Friedensreich Hundertwasser and, as ‘verti-cal urban forests’ or ‘vertical urban farms’, they have one primary purpose: to improve air quality. As well as functioning as ‘green lungs’, the Callebaut towers

are designed to generate energy via photovoltaic systems, or to bring the countryside to the consumer as a vertical farm (‘Dragonfly’).

Houses of the futureThe green future has already begun in the construction of houses and of-

fices. A few examples:Reusable skyscrapers – the LifeCycle tower. It looks rather conven-

tional, however the building materials used in CREE’s (a Vorarlberger Rhomberg subsidiary) LifeCycle tower are revolutionary. CREE has brought a building material back into the city that is ecologically sound and 100% reusable: wood. CEO of CREE, Hubert Rhomberg: ‘The construction industry is responsible for 40% of the total global resource consumption. If we want to keep building in the long term, and therefore sustain the industry, we have to offer intelligent and resource-saving products.’ An eight-storey prototype of the Rhomberg LifeCycle towers is to be built in Dornbirn in 2012. The hybrid high-rise, made from reinforced concrete and wood, can actually be built up to 100 metres or

30 stories high. Due to numerous pre-fabricated components and the use of wood as a building material, the LifeCycle tower can be built in half

the usual time, and can function as a passive energy, low energy or energy-plus building. Solar panels fixed to the frontage are

to provide a self-sufficient energy supply. Rhomberg: ‘If you want to re-introduce wood as a building material in the city,

you have to be prepared to build high as usable land is restricted.’

ENERGYbase – the self-sufficient of-fice building. Visitors to Vienna’s 21st district

can also get a glimpse of the future on the cor-ner of Siemensstrasse and Giefinggasse. The ENERGYbase office building, built by the Vienna Business Agency, uses 80% less energy than a typical office building thanks to its passive-house standard construction. But that’s not all: the energy for the building’s temperature control is generated from the ground water via a heat pump, and from solar panels on the roof. Water tubes are integrated into the concrete that supply the building with heat or cooling

depending on the time of year. All of the energy for heating and cooling comes from renewable

energy sources. The solar plant on the corru-gated south facade produces in addition 40% of

the electricity requirement. Liveable future – the ‘Future Evolution

House’. Also in Vienna, and in the 17th district with a view of the Schafberg, is German future scientist Matthias

Horx’s Future Evolution House (see also the interview on page 6). It‘s actually two container-like buildings: one with the

inscription :‘WORK’ (the office building) and one three-part wing with the inscription ‘:HOME’ (the actual family home). Horx is proud

of the fact that his house can produce two-thirds of its required energy itself, thanks to 40 square metres of solar cells and 20 square metres of solar

panels. In a further extension, Horx wants to use more areas for photovoltaics and thus produce more energy than he uses. Apart from the self-sufficient energy supply, the Future Evolution House has a number of features that could come as standard in a smart home of the future in 2050. This includes a futuristic home control system used with symbols projected onto the wall by lasers, and an electronically dimmable glass wall between the hall and living room that can switch between transparent and frosted on command.

Panasonic’s ‘eco ideas’ house. Panasonic’s model eco ideas house is not in Vienna, but at the Panasonic Center in Tokyo. The concept of this climate-friendly house with no significant carbon emissions is based on four factors:

– Self-sufficient energy generation via solar cells, fuel cells and heat pumps (and also for the electric car belonging to the house).

– Energy storage in lithium-ion household batteries.– A central energy control system that connects all electric appliances in

the house with each other and with the mains supply.– Conserving energy using clever climate controls, energy saving appliances,

LED lighting and heat recovery.

What does the interior of the 2050 smart home have to offer?The question remains: what will the smart home of 2050 look like inside?

Refrigerators that re-order milk by themselves? Smart TVs that can do things only PCs can today? 3-D films on the mobile or tablet? In principle, yes! Ap-pliances of all kinds (consumer electronics, computers, telecommunications, domestic, energy) are already able to be connected to each other via a network and be centrally controlled.

An example: the SmartHome system from the Lower Austrian energy provider EVN enables every central heating system to be remotely controlled via the Internet, PC or smartphone app. All you need is a broadband connection, adjustable radiators and an EVN SmartHome start-up kit (from 99.90 euros). A wireless central-control unit called an EVN SmartHome Cube controls the provided radiator thermostats. Its settings can be changed via the Internet by PC or smartphone. The system can also register when a window is opened for ventilation, or the owner signals they are leaving the house by pushing the eco-button. Up to 20% of heating costs can be saved, without loss of comfort, by the targeted reduction of room temperature in the absence of the residents or during ventilation. Soon, electricity use will be optimised via the Cube and it will even be able to control the alarm system.

The future of home entertainment. But what will the entertainment programme look like within your own four walls? Even now, the entertainment provided by the Internet overshadows that of the classic TV. In addition, many TV programmes and films are viewable on-demand on the Internet via media libraries and online video libraries. According to Swiss market and media re-searcher Andreas Weiß (MediaLogics), TV and Internet will rapidly merge with each other over the next few years. The new smart TV option with video on demand will mark the end of the classic video rental shop, in his opinion. Weiß predicts the same fate will befall the traditional AV data media of CDs, DVDs and Blu-ray discs: ‘It is so much easier to archive something in the Internet cloud than to have cupboards full of discs at home.’

What will be possible in the smart home of the future is not least a question of the (Internet) network capacity of the future. Josef Lorenz, head of technol-ogy at Nokia Siemens Networks: ‘Landline connections will become exclusively fibre optic over the medium term. By the end of the decade, we will have both upload and download speeds of one gigabyte a second, and you will then be able to connect your big 3-D TV to this terminal and conduct high-resolution 3-D video conferences.’

Not only people will communicate via these futuristic networks, however. Lorenz: ‘If we say today that we have billions of Internet users, then in the future it will be trillions of appliances that we connect via the Internet. Every street light, every manhole cover will have its own IP address and be controllable via the Internet. The manhole cover could be locked remotely or it could report via a sensor that it is flooding in a thunderstorm.’

Machine-to-machine communication or the ‘Internet of Things’ will of course work in the smart home too. It’s less of a technical question of whether the intelligent refrigerator will be able to re-order milk in the year 2050, and more a question of whether we will let it. Lorenz, head of technology at Nokia Siemens: ‘It’s not a technical problem. You can stick radio frequency identifi-cation (RFID) tags on any product; they’re cheap. You can swipe RFID-tagged items at the supermarket checkout and they will be automatically paid for and re-ordered. At home, the refrigerator will register via RFID what is there and also what is taken out and not returned. The refrigerator can then re-order. That’s not a technological challenge. The question is only: will people really want it? It’s much more likely that a person would allow the intelligent fire alarm to send a message to their mobile phone in the case of an emergency. Content: “Excuse me – your house is on fire!”’

Telecommunications experts Christian Haspl and Andreas Martin at Hutchison 3G Austria (‘Drei’) naturally believe in a close connection between the smart home and mobile communications. Haspl: ‘By 2050, the broadband issue will have been solved, just like electricity has been today. We no longer debate which plug socket can supply enough energy for our appliances: there’s just always enough energy there. Mobiles, TVs and all other appliances will be wirelessly connected to each other. It will also no longer be the case that data needs to be saved locally. I won’t have to remember whether the song or video I want is on the mobile, the tablet or the notebook, because everything will be available in the Internet cloud. A person will only have to say what they want to hear, read or watch and they will get it from the cloud thanks to language-recognition software.’

Entertainment is therefore guaranteed.

Today, billions of people communicate via the Internet. In the future, it will be trillions of appliances that use digital networks to exchange information.e

MUM, WHAT ARE WE GOING TO HAVE TO EAT TOMORROW?

ndy Warhol couldn’t swallow it in an interview: ‘Progress is very important and exciting in everything except food!’ This could be because Warhol’s stated favourite food was chocolate. And who would ever want chocolate to change too much?

Right. No one. And the same goes for most other foods. It’s a fact that we can all imagine ourselves in a space station on Mars. Science fiction authors even describe how it would work in such detail that many of us want to move in just after reading about it. But, look, even in films like The Fifth Element, the leading actors drink coffee and polish off burgers. So why are fiction professionals so especially uncreative with futuristic food? It’s almost as if nutrition were a constant in our lives: we often like best what our mothers and grandmothers put on the table.

Eating is feeling‘Food always has an emotional component: it’s like the need for closeness and physical

contact. And no one will forgo it in 100 years either.’ Beloved TV chef Tim Mälzer is sure this. His reasoning: ‘Everyone who has ever baked a cake themselves, taken it out of the oven and eaten it knows that it’s a feeling – a memory – that you immediately breathe in. I think we will always want to have this feeling of food.’

Do we really believe that food is hurtling towards the future at the same speed as the development of computers, for example? Or is that just naive? Because we only need go to the supermarket with our eyes open to see what is available today – and what wasn’t yesterday. Convenience products, of course. But much more meaningful:

NUTRITION: 14

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Our diet will change rapidly over the next decades. Simply because meat production will become (too) expensive, the seas are already overfished and the laboratories are doing research worth billions. This is how food is supposed to make us happier and better looking. What else have we got coming? We take a look at the food and drink of the future.

Text Johannes Stühlinger Images Miriam Höhne

NUTRITION: 16

But let’s get back to sweeter things. Preferably to Andy Warhol’s chocolate. This is set to change soon, too. Not necessarily the taste, but instead in the way it works. Attempts are currently being made to give the sweet a heart-attack-reducing effect, or even potency-increasing side effects to chocolate bars. Fiction or approaching reality? We shall see.

Insects and genetic engineering to combat hungerThere are much more serious issues, however. Because our world will have one massive problem if we don’t progress in the field of nutrition. How is the growing population going to feed itself? You only need to peek over the rim of your plate to see the current famine in the world. If we don’t manage to produce more food very quickly, humanity will very soon have a real existential problem.

A small calculation example: today there are seven billion people on the planet. In 2050, it will be more than nine billion. Today, roughly one billion are starving, and one person dies from starvation every three seconds.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been officially saying it for years: ‘Eat more insects!” No joke. Even if we find this disgusting, the facts speak for themselves: grasshoppers and their friends are abundant and nutritious. In parts of Asia, Africa and South America, the consumption of insects is completely normal; they used to be eaten in Europe, too, as proven by ancient drawings by Aristotle or Pliny, for example.

Genetic engineering in the field of nutrition is also currently very controversial in Austria, even if bigger yields could be produced with its help. With new varieties of resist-ant rice, for example. This is already happening in some areas: new strains of maize with improved protein content have been a big success in feeding Africa and South America. New varieties of grain that are immune to pests – similar to resistant weeds – are to be implemented soon. But these genetically manipulated varieties are extremely controver-sial: what (unknown and uncontrollable) side effects do they have? And: the patents are in the hands of major corporations that want to turn a big profit from the poorest countries in the world. For many people, genetic engineering is therefore – for ethical reasons as well – an unappetising thought.

Just 90 years ago, yogurt was sold in chemists as a beneficial medication to combat stomach and bowel problems! Today, big firms advertise their yogurt – which has been on the shelves of every petrol station for years, by the way – as being particularly healthy for gut flora. So positively everything tastes of change. And in truth, this started long ago, behind the scenes.

Eating illnesses for breakfastThe first key word in our journey into the future of nutrition: nano-recipes.

It sounds technically abstract, but according to the research departments at corporations such as Unilever or chemical companies such as BASF, it’s a future market worth billions. It involves using substances no longer than bil-lionth of a meter in length to give foodstuffs special properties: for example, lycopene – a natural substance that gives fruit and vegetables their colour and helps prevent cancer and heart disease – could be used as artificial additives in nearly all pre-prepared foodstuffs. A further aspect already being intensively researched: the creation of very special fat molecules that can reduce calorie content but retain the taste.

Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, the former chairman of Nestlé from Austria, says: ‘In the coming 20 years, a large amount of value creation will come from products with added health benefits.’ This will of course revive the field of re-search into artificial health boosters in our food. Having said that, today about 10% of Nestlé’s turnover comes from pharmaceuticals, and they are therefore naturally trying to interlink all kinds of fields. The aim of the research: certain additives called ‘nano-containers’ could be implanted into specific areas of the body and only released when in place. No, it’s not a joke if one asks: ‘Could a strawberry-flavoured ice cream reduce forehead wrinkles in the future?’ Or: ‘Are crisps good for treating the flu?’ Maybe, yes!

But science has a long way to go, and has a taste for genetics. This new branch of research, which examines the interplay between food and DNA, is called nutrigenomics. All of the large organisations in this field are taking significant steps, and there are already businesses in the USA that will genetically analyse saliva samples and calculate diet plans for a few hundred dollars.

Much more money is being pumped into a different, perhaps more realistic direction: Nestlé, Unilever and Danone annually invest about a billion euros into the development of chemicals that simulate the taste of sugar and salt, claims Greenpeace Germany. With these, the sugar content of concentrated juices or the salt in ready meals could be reduced by at least a third.

The all-rounder And with these developments, the big food companies are keeping step

with the futurologists. ‘Health and well-being will be the market of the future’ is what they have been trumpeting for years. In detail, it looks like this: ‘Consumers don’t want to just fill their bellies as simply as possible: they want added value. They want to eat healthy, and for it to taste good, too!’

In plain language, this means that food should be easy to prepare but also be top quality and tasty at the same time. Hello, all-rounder of the future! Another pinch of ‘information salt’ with that, perhaps? According to a German Iglo study, not even 15% of adults are confident enough to fry an egg any more. A very piquant fact!

A look at the laboratoriesBut, because the production of meat eats up massive amounts of resources

(it is responsible for 20% of greenhouse gas emissions, uses 80% of total ag-riculture space and 10% of fresh-water resources), it won’t be possible in the future without the support of ingenious scientists. That’s for sure. Here are some of the most spectacular projects.– Meat from stem cells. Scientists in the Netherlands are attempting to propa-gate muscle cells in a Petri dish. They use animal stem cells in nutrient solutions and have already achieved initial success.– Domestication of fish. We currently fish 80 million tonnes out of the world’s oceans annually. Much too much to be sustainable. That’s why scientists are working on breeding increasing amounts of fish in aquacultures – this system is currently working for 480 different species. A US study concludes that 62% of the world’s protein needs could be met with fish bred in aquacultures by 2050. They are even considering breeding fish in giant aquariums in the mid-dle of cities. German researchers are in the lead here, whose ‘Fish in the City’ project is a closed circuit that manages to completely dispense with antibiotics, phosphorus and nitrogen secretions, which have become a massive problem in aquacultures in Vietnam and South America.– Farming in the city. In South Korea – where there is hardly any unused space to farm on – greens and vegetables are being grown in style in high-rises right in the middle of the city. It’s ecological and saves resources, as the nutrient solutions used are highly efficient. This reduces water use by an unbelievable 90%. Dickson Despommier, a microbiologist at Columbia University (New York), has made the following calculation: a 30-storey high-rise building, converted into a farm with numerous raised beds could feed 50,000 people. – But there are already successful projects in developing and emerging coun-tries, too. The Philippines and Cuba – particularly the latter – are showing us how it’s done: wasteland in public spaces is being consistently used for the production of fruit and vegetables. Whether it’s on the strip of green next to a road or on the roofs of houses, they’re sowing and harvesting everywhere. It is an approach that experts are recommending for cities like Vienna, too. And almost anyone can try it: a small ‘window-sill’ farm is a first step that imparts a wonderful sense of the value of food.

WATER SHORTAGES BY REGION: 1.1 billion people worldwide live without clean drinking water.

HOW WE USE WATER: What could you sensibly cut back?

303

East Asia

Source: UNICEF, figures are in millions of people.

Source: Stadtwerke Karlsruhe, data for Central Europe

288

Sub-Saharan Africa

234

South Asia

115

South East Asia

60

Latin America and the

Caribbean

23

West Asia

20

Eurasia

15

North Africa

15

Developed countries

3

Oceania

Water wars?Particularly in the poor, starvation-ravaged regions of the world there is

another, much more serious problem: acute water shortages. Experts have been saying for years that the wars of the future will not be over oil, but water.

Researchers agree that the problem of providing clean water will become one of humanity’s biggest problems in the near future. Many examples illustrate the fact that it is inappropriate to blindly trust the markets to efficiently regulate this issue. One example: after water distribution was privatised in province of Tucumán in Argentina, the price per litre suddenly went up by 104%.

Experts forecast that roughly seven billion people in 60 countries will be confronted with water shortages by 2050. At this point, a small concluding example: a bath requires 140 litres of water, producing a car requires 200,000 litres and growing a tonne of wheat takes around one million litres. :

A small ‘window-sill’ farm is a first step that imparts a wonderful sense of the value of food.

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You’ll be hearing the words ‘smart textiles’ much more often in the future. Fashion is going to strike out in new directions. New and different functions will be developed in the field of microelectronics, and it will be increasingly incorporated into textiles. The reduction of fashion to just the way it looks and protects the body from environmental influences will be a thing of the past in 2050. Textiles will probably have ‘nice features’, such as being dirt-resistant. This aspect is going to have a positive impact on the environment as it will mean using less water, less detergent and less energy.But that’s definitely not all: for a long time now, the automobile industry has been experimenting with weaves and textile structures that absorb impact and non-woven fabrics that can optimise the acoustics in vehicle interiors.

Susanne Spiel is an internationally recognised commercial and fashion photographer. She works, amongst others, for magazines such as Vogue, Harper’s Bazaar, Tatler and Elle, and for advertising agencies such as Saatchi, JvM and FCB. She lives in Vienna and Hamburg.

Production: Susanne SpielModel: Martina R. / Focus Hair/make-up: Sophie Chudzikowski

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A new study by the Institute for Advanced Studies carried out on behalf of EVN, Greenpeace and the Austrian labour union vida has shown that we

urgently need an energy transition in Austria. To secure our prosperity.

And to serve as our contribution towards preventing a climate disaster. Here we take a look at how this can be achieved – with no decline in prosperity – and what we all have to do.

veryone’s talking about the need for change, new challenges and the search for new solutions. Including – and especially – in matters concerning energy. So let’s take a sober look at the situation. The global thirst for energy is getting bigger every year. That’s a fact. Global energy consumption has almost doubled over the past 30 years, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting an annual increase of 1.4% for the next 20 years – unless there is a fundamental change in our energy policy, and soon. And ‘fundamental’ isn’t just a trendy buzzword here. Experts use the word ‘fundamental’ to describe a far-reaching transformation that is comparable in size only to the Industrial Revolution. It is naive to think that we will be able to solve all our energy problems over the coming decades just by replacing our old light bulbs with low-energy ones. Naive, or maybe ignorant.

Global battle for a limited resource: energyAnother fact is that the global battle for the limited resource of energy conceals a

tremendous potential for conflict. At the moment, every single man, woman and child on the planet consumes the equivalent of 1.8 metric tonnes of oil a year, although the worldwide differences are vast. Whereas a US citizen consumes more than seven metric tonnes, the comparable figure in China is 1.7 tonnes, and 0.7 tonnes in Africa. At 3.8 tonnes, consumption in Austria is lower than the OECD states’ average of 4.3 tonnes. This gives rise to a number of serious questions. For instance, is it right for industrialised countries to

slow down the economic catching-up process of emerging nations by imposing restrictions relating to environmental issues and energy consumption on them? Do we want to allow the free market to govern access to energy resources and thereby assert the right of the strong? Is it right to use fertile agricultural land for biogenic energy production while every seventh person on the planet has to fight every day just to survive and to have enough to eat? Not to mention the sword of Damocles over everyone’s head: the rapid acceleration of climate change.

How can we prevent a climate disaster?Fossil fuels are not only limited, but they cause climate effects whose consequences

we can only guess at today. Even the aim of bringing global warming down two degrees Celsius to pre-industrial levels is more than ambitious. Even if national governments’ current plans and programmes are carried out, the International Energy Agency is expecting long-term global warming of around 3.5 degrees.

In order to achieve the two-degree goal, greenhouse emissions must be halved by 2050. By 2100, the annual global CO2 equivalent per capita – which is already 4.3 metric tonnes today – must be brought down to two tonnes. Quite a drop for some countries. The average American currently sends 17 metric tonnes, the average German 9 metric tonnes, and the average Austrian 7.6 metric tonnes of CO2 into the air every year. According to the Greenpeace CO2 calculator, the average European creates 2.4 metric tonnes of

CO2 equivalent just to satisfy their mobility needs, which means that heating, electricity, food and consumption would have to be cut back to zero before climate change could even be curbed. Or humankind has to change its habits completely, thoroughly and radically.

Austria – land of opportunitiesAs important as international agreements and treaties on overcoming global climate

and energy issues are, the active involvement of every single consumer and exploitation of every country’s maximum contribution are no less essential. Every country’s specific possibilities have to be taken into account – as do their differences in economic development.

In this respect, Austria is rich – rich in hydropower, and rich in sustainable raw materials such as timber. A wide range of concepts and analyses have been doing the rounds for years, purporting to promise us the possibility of total independence from imported energy. But what has been done? Far too little.

There is no other way of explaining that, despite the benefits that nature has bestowed upon our land, we have not been able to reduce our dependence on imported energy over the past ten years. Then as now, between 60 and 70% of the total gross domestic consumption is imported. So can Austria be awoken from its energy lethargy and achieve a true, long-term and sustainable energy transition?

Off to the energy [r]evolution of 2050!Yes. Austria can. It is certainly possible for the country to halve its energy consumption,

increase its proportion of renewable fuels to 85% and cut CO2 emissions by more than 90% by 2050. The path to achieving this has been sketched by the energy [r]evolution 2050 study carried out by the Institute of Advanced Studies on behalf of EVN, Greenpeace and the Austrian labour union vida.

The most important things first: this energy transition is possible and achievable; it will not affect our quality of life in any way, and will help to revitalise the labour market.

The current structure of Austria’s energy supplies is marked by a high percentage of fossil energy sources; oil amounts to just under 40% of the gross domestic consumption, natural gas to 22% and coal to 9%. In terms of gross domestic consumption, 30% comes from renewable energy sources (including hydropower, wind and solar).

Only about three-quarters of the total consumption go into the final energy consumption; the remainder is used elsewhere or is lost in energy transformation. The biggest consumer of final energy is the traffic sector at just under 35%; space heating and air conditioning make up 28% and the manufacturing industries (e.g. industrial furnaces, stationary engines, steam production, etc.) about 35%.

The supply and consumption structures show quite clearly where the energy transformation can best commence. Just by making savings in traffic and heating energy, Austria will be able to halve its final energy consumption by 2050. There is also sufficient

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Text by Wolfgang Schreiner

HOW WE WILL MANAGE THE ENERGY TRANSITION

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potential for increasing the proportion of renewable fuels to 85% of the final consumption calculated for 2050.

Intelligent livingBased on various future scenarios published by the Austrian Energy Agency in 2010,

the energy [r]evolution 2050 study is looking at potential savings in energy consumption for space heating, hot water and cooling of 70%. Solar systems and heat pumps give the biggest amount of design freedom, and by 2050 could provide around 40% of space heating. District cooling networks and new technologies, such as solar cooling, will provide more of the air conditioning for buildings. And it is already possible to dramatically reduce the energy requirement for hot water preparation by using intelligent fittings: infrared-controlled fittings cut hot water consumption by up to 65%.

The refurbishment of old buildings is a key area in the private sector, and is to be supported by government measures to dramatically increase the rate of refurbishments by 2050. Here, the question arises whether it would not make more sense to use existing residential building funds for refurbishments. The passive or net-zero energy house has to become the standard for new buildings. The necessary technology already exists, and has long been marketable.

Above all, energy-saving measures in the private sector will not lead to a reduction in living comfort.

Priority for public and alternative transport conceptsWe Austrians love our cars – more than six million of them are registered here, and

that number is rising. At 72.7%, Austria’s level of motorisation is much higher than the European average of just under 50%. So it is hardly surprising that over 87% of the total energy consumed by the traffic sector is used by Austria’s road traffic, and only 2.4% by the railways. However, investigations by Austria’s road traffic organisation have shown quite clearly that in areas with attractive alternatives, there is a consistent decline in the level of motorisation. Whereas only every third resident has his or her own car in Vienna’s inner-city areas with excellent infrastructure, that figure is twice as high in the less developed areas of Lower Austria or Styria. So the development of public transport routes is as important in reducing energy consumption as the development of non-fossil fuels.

THE POTENTIAL fOR RENEWAbLE fuELS uNTIL 2050 IN AuSTRIA

fINAL ENERGY cONSuMPTION IN AuSTRIA bY SEcTOR

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Tremendous potential for photovoltaics Photovoltaics are said to have the biggest potential in Austria. Installation costs have

dropped dramatically in recent years, and well-founded studies assume that marketable manufacturing costs will be possible without subsidies from 2020. There are sufficient suitable south-facing areas; various surveys have confirmed that by 2050, it will be possible to cover around 20% of the total electricity requirement of 100 terawatt-hours with 140 square kilometres of roof areas and 50 square kilometres of facades.

Outlook good for wind power – especially in eastern AustriaSome 570,000 Austrian households are already being supplied with electricity gen-

erated from wind power today. Despite the developments of recent years – the EVN alone creates electricity for 100,000 households in nine wind parks – there is still further potential in Austria, especially in the east. The Energy Economics Group of the Technical University of Vienna believes that the annual amount of electricity produced with wind power in Austria can be quadrupled to 8,000 gigawatt-hours.

Solar thermal energy systems for low-temperature heating requirements Solar thermal energy systems are particularly suitable for meeting low-temperature

heating requirements, and cover an impressive 4.3 million square metres in our country, putting Austria in third place in the world after Cyprus and Israel. This pleasing status is due to numerous funding initiatives by the federal states in recent years. However, the

The Austrian Energy Agency calculates possible energy savings by 2050 of around half the comparable figure for 2010, a calculation that is based on a significant increase in alternative transport concepts. A study by the Environment Agency Austria forecasts a fleet of over 200,000 electric vehicles for 2020, and of over five million for 2050, or 74% of all vehicles. This brings with it fundamental challenges with regard to the infrastructure for energy supply. The demand for electricity in the traffic sector will more than quadruple by then.

The future belongs to renewable energiesEven though renewable isn’t the same as unlimited, there is sufficient development

potential in Austria to cover most of its final energy consumption as calculated in the quoted study for 2050.

Development of hydropower slowed due to protected areasThe residual potential for hydropower is limited by natural protected areas.

Environmental requirements resulting, for instance, from the EU Water Framework Directive, reduce the energy-producing potential of existing power plants. And yet the master plan of the association of Austrian energy companies (VEÖ – Verband der Elektrizitätsunternehmen Österreichs) has identified a development potential of seven terawatt-hours by 2020.

Hydropower Wind power Photovoltaics

Solar thermal energy

Heat pumps Geothermal energy

Timber Biogenic combustibles and fuels

Combustible waste

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Traffic Manufacturing sector Services

Source: energy [r]evolution 2050

Source: energy [r]evolution 2050

Households Agriculture

options have by no means been exhausted. Based on various scenarios and calculations, it is assumed that the collector surface can be extended to 66 million square metres by 2050, which will cover approximately 40% of the low-temperature heating requirements predicted for that point in time.

Biomass – wood is the bestAt 16%, biomass – especially in the form of wood – plays a key role in Austria’s end

consumption of energy. As a native, and particularly as a regenerative raw material, wood is used in around one-third of all newly installed heating systems in the form of chips or pellets. There has been a dramatic increase in the amount of eco-electric products from biomass and biogases, thanks in no small part to the support of subsidies for eco-electricity, and further potential remains. However, the issue of using arable land for the production of energetically utilisable field crops also needs to be investigated in depth, not least since cultivation itself is energy-intensive and could have an impact on food prices. However, according to a study by the Austrian ministry of life (Lebensministerium), if only the amount of wood that regrows every year were to be used, then by 2020 the energy thus acquired would increase by up to ten terawatt-hours to 43 terawatt-hours.

After the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, a number of countries (such as Germany) removed nuclear electricity from their networks, but new plants are still being built elsewhere in the world. Although Austria has no nuclear power stations, most people are unaware that many of us use nuclear electricity, albeit via detours.

At the end of September 2011, there were exactly 434 nuclear power stations in operation in 31 countries in the world – nine fewer than at the end of 2010. Their installed electric output totals approximately 387,000 megawatts, which equates to roughly 18 times the capacity of all power plants in operation in Austria.

Fourteen nuclear power stations, eight of them alone in Germany, were shut down in the first nine months of 2011, not least because of the disaster in Fukushima in March 2011, and the resulting pressure on operators and politicians. However, nine new nuclear power stations were completed and commissioned in the same period in other countries, including China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia. According to calculations by the International Energy Agency, nuclear energy covers only 6% of the global primary energy

requirements. Then there is the incalculable risk and the unresolved question of safe ultimate storage of nuclear waste.

Despite that, 62 further nuclear power plants are currently under construction throughout the world, including 27 in China, ten in Russia, six in India and five in South Korea.

In a referendum in November 1978, Austria voted against the commissioning of a completed nuclear power plant in Zwentendorf in Lower Austria. The ‘Atomsperrgesetz’, Austria’s law banning the use of nuclear energy, was passed in December of the same year, and received constitutional status in 1999. However, this does not mean that no energy from nuclear power plants is being used at all; it is in fact being brought into our country in the form of electricity that we import from neighbouring countries.

According to E-Control, the energy regulating authority, the origin of some 14.7% of our domestic electricity is unknown, and in the light of the European electricity mix, 26.6% of that could be nuclear. This equates to approximately 4% of Austria’s total.

Greenpeace and Global 2000 ran nuclear energy checks on the Austrian energy supply companies. ‘Despite the nuclear disaster in Japan and the Austrian nation’s general rejection of imported nuclear power, a number of energy companies are importing electricity generated by nuclear power,’ was their conclusion. The proportion of nuclear-generated electricity among the affected companies in 2011 ranged between 10 and 23% of the respective electricity mix. The associated electricity import amounts to the annual electricity production of the Mochovce nuclear power plant in Slovakia, the four reactors of which provide a total installed electrical output of 1,820 megawatts.

Luckily, this does not apply to every energy supplier. Quality suppliers such as BEWAG, EVN and Wienstrom only provide electricity of proven origin, and are entirely free of electricity from nuclear power plants. Customers also have the option to purchase pure green electricity that is obtained exclusively from renewable energy sources. In the 2010/11 business year, 35% of the EVN’s total electricity production, for instance, came from such sources; this figure is due to increase to 50% by 2020.

GLObAL cRITIcISM Of NucLEAR ENERGY

24: ENERGY

DEVELOPMENT Of VARIOuS fuELS IN AuSTRIA

Geothermal energy – as yet (almost) unusedGeothermal energy is of particular interest for use in producing hot water, but also in

district and local heating – although its existence in Austria is shadowy as of now. There is tremendous potential in Upper and Lower Austria in particular because of the geological conditions. According to reliable calculations, in the Braunau region alone geothermal energy could heat more than 28,000 households.

Heat pumps on the advanceThe use of heat pumps is far more widespread; there are over 170,000 of them in use

all over Austria as waste-water treatment plants or for heating and ventilation purposes. Their role is expected to increase in low-energy and passive houses in particular over the coming years.

The courage to actThe described scenarios and Austria’s development possibilities on the way to a clean

energy future give us hope. However, they will not be worth the paper you are holding in your hands if the necessary measures are not implemented or pushed for immediately.

1,000 PJ

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Photovoltaics Biogenic fuels Ambient heat

In addition to the dramatic reduction in energy consumption and the development of renewable energies, incentives and planning safety need to be established for companies and investors to encourage investment in CO2-neutral technologies.

So there is tremendous pressure on the politicians to finally introduce green incentives into tax system and pass a sound climate change bill defining long-term targets and implementation measures. The Austrian economy needs clear, stable, long-term framework conditions. Once they are in place, the winners will be the ones who recognised the associated opportunities early on and integrated them in their business models. This applies in particular to the energy suppliers who develop from pure energy suppliers into energy service providers, and who follow innovative paths with vehemence and far-sightedness both in the production and in network infrastructure. :

The European Union wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by between 80 and 95% from levels in 1990 by the year 2050. Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) is of considerable importance; experts believe it is responsible for two-thirds of climate change. CO2 is the climate killer and needs to be avoided – that is undisputed.

The energy industry is working hard on increasing energy efficiency and developing renewable fuels – not least for financial reasons; from 2013, electricity producers will have to bid at auctions for the CO2 emission certificates required for their plants. Despite these endeavours, it is not going to be possible to dispense with thermal energy production in the foreseeable future, nor will it be possible to avoid CO2 emissions for that time; the best that we can hope for is to reduce them.

Researchers and experts the world over are working on processes to avoid producing or sensibly recycle CO2. They include Gerald Kinger, chemist at the EVN. Kinger literally blossoms when discussing the CO2 separating plant at the EVN power plant in Dürnrohr, which was opened in September 2011. This trial plant was designed in cooperation with Andritz and the Technical University of Vienna, and can theoretically separate up to 100 metric tonnes of CO2 a year. The CO2 present in flue gas is bound in an absorber by detergent, and then expelled again by heat before being collected in containers.

Nearly pure CO2 is already used today as a raw material for lots of products in the chemical and cosmetics industries. CO2 puts the bubbles in soft drinks and mineral water, and is also essential in the production of fertilisers and fire extinguishers. ‘Of course, the technical and chemical use of CO2 cannot be seen as a global solution in reducing emissions,’ says Kinger. ‘However, it is an attractive option in the overall strategy of CO2 management.’

Research is being carried out all over the world on new processes for increasing the recycling potential of CO2. One leading question is whether and to what extent CO2 can be used as an alternative to oil. These trials promisingly call themselves the ‘dream reaction’, and their aim is to use catalysts and CO2 to manufacture bioplastics that could replace petrochemically produced plastics (e.g. polypropylene). ‘The manufacturing costs are still too high for much marketing success to be achieved,’ explains Kinger. However, the progress that is being made in this sector, especially in the USA and Germany, is impressive – as is the general potential of these bioplastics. The possible uses range from lightweight plastic bottles to heat insulation or interior linings on vehicles. In Kinger’s opinion, one central role could be occupied by the bioplastic polyhydroxybutyric acid (PHB for short), which was discovered in France around 90 years ago and which many organisms can produce from sugar, starch or oils. According to current estimates, microbes can produce around one kilogram of bioplastic from three kilograms of sugar. ‘I don’t think that using precious

foodstuffs to make bioplastics is sustainable; all it does is shift the problem of limited resources,’ says Kinger.

He is currently involved in a research project with the University of Agricultural Sciences on an alternative means of producing PHB that requires no precious substrates. It calls for the cultivation of algae in a bioreactor that use CO2 as the only source of carbon and natural light as the energy source. PHB is produced by natural photosynthesis, and it can be processed after isolation of bacterial cells. The advantages of cultivating microalgae over growing conventional agricultural crops would be higher yields and low water consumption. But the known processes are still very expensive, and no large-scale processes exist yet.

However, he also addresses these questions of the future with passion, and a little humility, when he says, ‘Even though our contribution to the use of CO2 compared to current emissions can only be a small one, as a responsible energy supplier, it is our duty to utilise every possibility. This includes unconventional paths for using CO2 as the precious raw material that it is.’

cO2 – A VALuAbLE RAW MATERIAL WITH A fuTuRE

A VISIT TO ZWENTENDORf – THE SAfEST NucLEAR POWER STATION IN THE WORLDThere are just under 3,800 people in the community of Zwentendorf, which is situated in the Tullnerfeld region in Lower Austria, 50 kilometres from Vienna. As idyllic as this location appears to visitors, its role in Austria’s more recent history is no less spectacular. The reactor of the Zwentendorf nuclear power plant soars to a height of more than 60 metres a short distance from the neat centre of the town. Work on it commenced in 1972, and the plant should have been commissioned in 1978. However, it was not to be. With a majority of just 30,000, the Austrian people voted against its commissioning in a referendum in November 1978. Today, almost everyone in Austria is proud of this decision – in fact, it’s quite difficult to find anyone in favour of nuclear energy … We’re lucky. During our visit to Zwentendorf power station, we meet EVN technician Johann Fleischer. He cannot hide his fascination for this power plant as he gives the many visitors deep insights into the reactor’s innermost core. He is familiar with its every corner, every corridor and every one of its 1,050 rooms. He has been the caretaker of this historically portentous site since 2002, and even today his eyes still shine when he talks about ‘his’ power plant. How the building almost ended up as a ‘scrap heap’ because no one took care of it. How he and his team gave it a new lease of life. He talks of its 1.2-metre-thick reinforced concrete walls and of the vast pumps that would have forced 30,000 litres of cooling water from the Danube through the plant – every second. Of the 484 uranium rods that would have produced 4,000-degree heat and powered four turbines. And, of course, of the 700 megawatts that Zwentendorf would have fed into the electricity network.

Indeed, the trained confectioner uses the subjunctive a lot. And one more: ‘Over there, where the beavers play, is where the second reactor should now be in operation.’ Fleischer seems a little sad, so it is natural to ask whether he regrets that ‘his’ power plant was never commissioned. He instantly becomes formal; outing yourself as a devotee of nuclear power in Austria doesn’t usually win you any friends. So he opts for diplomacy instead. ‘It’s a decision that was made a long time ago. I was only 21 at the time. But it’s not right to generally demonise nuclear energy. There are some very safe plants, and some that aren’t, or are no longer.’ There is no doubt in his mind that Zwentendorf would have belonged to the former. ‘Nothing could have happened here – relatively speaking.’ Relatively comforting words.

He takes us on into the control room. Here, too, time seems to have stood still. The whole place looks like a film set for a sci-fi movie with the original 1970s atmosphere. ‘Yes, several films have been made here,’ Fleischer notes. We both look up at the clock in the centre; its hands stand at five minutes to twelve. Another symbolic ‘relic’ of a film shoot. But Fleischer has far more important things to do than shepherd journalists and visitors around the premises. Over the past few years, he has also been involved in work to transform the empty reactor, which has also served as a storage facility for spares for identical power plants in Germany, into a training and safety centre. Technicians come from everywhere (including Germany) to practice dry runs that would not be possible in an active nuclear power plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency also uses Zwentendorf for safety training. We are fascinated – as probably every other visitor here is, too. We almost forget the fact that the EVN has been operating one of Austria’s biggest photovoltaic plants here since 2009, producing solar power for its customers. No matter how much you reject the technology, we are infected by Johann Fleischer’s knowledge and enthusiasm as he guides us around the plant. Perhaps a little disturbing, but undeniably fascinating …

The EVN is giving away 50 exclusive special tours of Zwentendorf power plant. Send an email no later than 29 February 2012 to manfred.boeck@evn.at.

JOHANN FLEISCHER SHOWS US AROUND HIS DOMAIN IN THE NEVER-COMMISSIONED NUCLEAR POWER PLANT AT ZWENTENDORF.

TODAY, ZWENTENDORF IS A

TRAINING CENTRE FOR COLLEAGUES

FROM GERMAN NUCLEAR POWER

PLANTS.

Source: energy [r]evolution 2050

Mir

iam

Höh

ne

26:

Native Tyrolean Daniel Gebhart de Koekkoek completed an internship at Magnum Photos in New York that opened his eyes to documentary portrait photography. His images have since then appeared in international magazines such as Vanity Fair, VICE, Monocle, Red Bulletin and Rolling Stone and are hung on the walls of various galleries in Europe, Asia and America.

Insig

ht

On a flight from Scandinavia to Vienna, I had an unbe-lievable ‘visual’ experience concerning the future of our energy provision. Suddenly, a small opening appeared in the cloud cover and gave me a view of the largest wind farm in Sweden. At Lillgrund, there are 48 wind turbines in the Baltic Sea. Average wind speeds of ten metres a second provide energy for 60,000 households. From above, it all looks like a toy. The reality: every wind turbine measures 93 metres in diameter and 115 metres high.

Daniel Gebhart deKoekkoek

BRAVE NEW WORKING WORLD

28: WORK

The concept of a lifelong permanent job with one single employer is be-ing made redundant. The future world of work will be characterised by flex-ibility and new opportunities. We will work from home, only go into the office for meetings with colleagues, score points with knowledge – and find more meaning and fulfilment in our activity. We put five theses to the test.

Text Karl M. Pruckner Images Susanne Spiel

01Work as a search for meaning

How we work, where we work, what we work on – all of this is going through a radical change. The reasons for this are many: globalised markets, digital networking, a weakening of the dogma of constant growth, the trend towards more sustainability and changing demographics. Any of these points alone would be enough to unsettle our lives, raise questions and require new solutions. But let’s restrict ourselves to the field of work. And there, most experts agree: the times in which we faithfully worked 40 hours (on an unlimited contract, of course) and had fixed holidays – yes, these times are coming to an end. And so, for instance, for British sociologist Anthony Giddens, the following is also clear: the social definition of work is currently changing with breathtaking speed. We have to come to terms with the fact that the classic terms of ‘em-ployee’ and ‘employers’ are being further eroded. We are steadily becoming knowledge workers, who work on a project- and task-oriented basis. This is what we understand today with the term ‘Me Ltd’: the elements of temporal flexibility, independent resource appropriation and individual salaries are becoming more important depending on a person’s phase of life.This trend is, of course, worrisome for many people and a cause of uncer-tainty. But let’s formulate it positively: we will enjoy more freedom to adjust our work life to suit our individual needs. And incidentally, unsalaried activi-ties that society has previously deemed to be voluntary will be financially compensated in future. It’s not only this that will give personal fulfilment at work and the meaningfulness of our activities greater priority. Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahnemann found that this is much more important than filthy lucre, by the way: according to him, life satisfaction does not correlate with income where people have an annual household income greater than 60,000 euros. Quality of life only increases up to this point. More money therefore does not make you happier.

30: WORK

02Knowledge as the key to success

04Work life will merge with home life

03

05

The globalisation of work

We will become digital nomads

The key to economic success has nine letters: knowledge. Education will therefore become the pivotal point of our economy. Or, in other words: the focus will be on services based on creative work or product innovation. Pure research, but also applied research and development, will become increas-ingly important for positive economic advance-ment. Spin-offs from universities in particular are experiencing a boom. The EU has therefore set a clear goal for 2020, that the investment volume for research and development shall total at least 3% of a country’s GDP. It’s currently estimated that bio- and nanotechnology will become the most important economic sectors of the future. This rise of natural sciences is already in full swing, but the humanities, cultural studies and social sciences will also take on new importance. Simply because they deliver new theoretical models for a rapidly changing world. And so they offer us discourse, orientation and security.

The ‘8-8-8’ concept promoted by the unions – we work for eight hours, play for eight hours and sleep for eight hours – will no longer fulfil new require-ments. We will be confronted with daily work hours of differing intensity and length in the future. How we divide up our work and where we work from will, for a large part, be left up to the individual. What counts is the result. In the best case scenario, this will ensure the compatibility of family and career. Because: we could work at home in our home offices in the mornings, then have lunch with our families and play with the kids. The afternoons and evenings will be for work again. Every individual can decide what their optimal daily routine will look like. James Katz, professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, defines this development as a ‘historic reintegra-tion’ of our working and private lives.

The classic career path of remaining with a single firm until pension age used to be customary and desirable for many people until recently; in the future, we will only spend a few years in one and the same job with a defined job description. Another job will follow that one, one that will demand similar skills but which could be in a totally different field and/or in a different part of the world. In brief: the globalisation of work will follow the globalisation of capital flow. Homo globalis will therefore have two options: either to relocate to a different country or – a massive future trend – to work from their modern and networked home office for an employer who is located in a different country or even on another continent. The first option – relocation to a different country, at least inside the EU – has been possible for many years thanks to the freedom of movement inside EU borders. Even if we Austrians only make limited use of it. According to a recent Eurobarometer survey, out of all EU citizens it’s the Austrians that show the least ambition to move abroad (primarily due to a strong sense of home, which is important to 41%). According to this study, only 8% could imagine working in another EU country. In comparison: the Danes are at the top of this ranking – 51% of them would be prepared to take a job abroad. Only a minority of Austrians (44%) thinks that this form of mobility is generally ‘a good thing’. And another comparison here: in Sweden, it’s 78 %. Or perhaps it will be the second option offered by the globalisation of work that is the most future-oriented? Why should you relocate if working for an employer in Asia, America or Africa using modern information and communication technologies is no problem? And doing it from a modern, digitally networked home office. Manual Castells, a sociologist at the University of Southern California, predicts this will clearly be the biggest trend of the future when he says: ‘Permanent connection is the deciding factor for success, not physical movement.’This globalisation of work demands of us all – as well as content specialisation – a higher level of hard and soft skills (e.g. speaking several languages) than we have today. This also includes being able to quickly adjust to new life situations and new work content. Knowledge workers therefore have to have generalist skills, but also a broad portfolio of skills. But this development won’t just produce winners, in the opinion of Catherine Hakim at the London School of Economics: ‘There will be an increasing divide between knowledge workers and unqualified people.’ What sounds academically harmless here actually contains several dangers. Jobs that are less driven by knowledge – for example, in industrial production, but also classic secretarial or administrative roles – are being threatened with automatic redundancy due to improved information technologies. Or being offshored to economies with lower wealth levels, and therefore lower cost levels. A new McKinsey study predicts that the offshoring business will boom in the next few years with double-figure growth rates, and will turn over 500 billion US dollars worldwide by 2020.

New technologies make it possible for us to work from any part of the world. But we will still need the occasional personal contact with our colleagues. ‘The isolated home workplace doesn’t make sense because only a fraction of creative work takes place in solitary con-centration,’ says futurologist Matthias Horx in his book How We Will Live.The office of the future will therefore perform a significantly different function. Up to now, it has been the central place for the completion of job-related tasks; in future, the office will be reduced to a meeting-based infrastructure. Permanent offices will only exist for the highest representatives; flexible rentable meeting rooms will be available for every-one else, which can be pre-booked online and have technical equipment, coffee or food depending on the occasion.The classic one-person office with a permanent desk has served its purpose; the offices of the future will be paperless and open plan, with desks available for working in between meetings. Working from home with contributions from the employer for electricity, gas and so on will be the norm.There will be a drastic change to IT equipment, too. Individual employees will be able to freely choose their own notebooks and mobile telephones, and will receive a flat-rate sum for IT maintenance. This is all done in the name of more intensive collaboration – although no longer permanently in direct contact, but via many different communication channels.Everyone will be connected with everyone else, can work together online on projects, discuss matters via video chat and so – regardless of location – integrate themselves perfectly into a virtual team.Sounds like science fiction? Absolutely not! Deutsche Bank, for example, has long been running a project called ‘New Work Space’. Employees are supplied with notebooks and smartphones. A total of 40% continue to be in the office every day as ‘resident people’, but almost 40% are often on the move as ‘mobile people’, and another 20% are classed as ‘super-mobile people’ and can work completely independently from any site at any time. Or just give the administration in the BMW plant in Leipzig a call. You will always be put through to your selected contact’s mobile phone. They could be in the office. Or at home. Or out walking. This freedom – studies have proven – requires a certain ‘adjustment’

period, but employees soon see this modern way of working as a positive one. They work like self-employed people – not chained to the desk, no compulsory attendance or even clocking-in systems. The only thing that counts is the result.The trend towards mobile working is unstoppable. Or perhaps you yourself don’t read business emails on your phone? Or log yourself into your work intranet from home? The likelihood is that you do. German research initiative D21, an affiliation of IT specialists from the economics and politics sectors, calculates that the proportion of mobile activities will increase to 80% in this decade. And what is true for Germany is (with a small time lag) usually true for Austria, too.But, in conclusion, let us leave the grey realms of theory and take a look at the practice. German online journalist Martin Weigert (www.netzwertig.com) spent six months in Thailand. And kept on working as a ‘digital nomad’ – despite being thousands of kilometres away from Europe. He very much enjoyed the time difference, for instance: ‘When the alarm went off in our apartment on Koh Samui, it was around midnight in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. I therefore had about eight hours to appraise the news situation in peace, and to decide which issues would be of particular interest to the readers of netzwertig.com.’ After that, he could lie comfortably on the beach with no time pressures and compose his articles. Sounds like a dream, doesn’t it? Mostly, yes. But there were, of course, also downsides: for example, the search for the fastest possible Internet connection, which can be difficult in many parts of the world. Or ‘the lack of opportunities to meet colleagues in the field face-to-face,’ as Weigert says. His conclusion is still a positive one: ‘Digital nomadism is not for everyone. But to those who can provide the necessary flexibility, I can only recommend such a project.’

Homo globalis has two options: either to relocate to a different country, or to work from their modern home office for an employer who is located in a different country or even continent.

MOBILITY: 33

The era of fossil fuels is definitively coming to an end. But how are we going to keep

moving in the future? We discussed this with experts from all over the world. Their an-

swers are clear: road transport is heading towards e-mobility and hydrogen-powered

vehicles; aeroplane and ship builders also have new solutions ready. And good old rail

is experiencing a comeback. We are taking a look at our mobility in 2050. Text Rainer Grünwald

THE RAIL NETWORK WILL BE MASSIVELY EXTENDED BY 2050

EUROPE HAS BIG MOBILITY TARGETS FOR 2050

The EU wants to make 32 billion euros available for the development of the European rail network alone by 2020. The main aim: the connection of all major airports and seaports – if feasible – to high-speed rail systems.

E-SHIP 1 USES WIND POWER FOR PROPULSION, AS WELL AS CONVENTIONAL DIESEL ENGINES.

MANY CAR MANUFACTURERS – SUCH AS OPEL HERE – ARE FOCUSING ON E-MOBILITY. AND SOON, ON HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS.

THE EXTENSION OF THE RAIL

NETWORK IS THE HIGHEST

PRIORITY FOR THE EU.

The EU definitely has extremely detailed ideas about mobility for the year 2050. The European Commission’s plan ‘Transport 2050’ will drastically cut Europe’s dependence on oil imports and reduce traffic-related carbon emissions by 60% by 2050.Specifically, the EU wants to implement the following by 2050:• No more conventionally fuelled cars in cities. Only electric, hydrogen-fuelled or hybrid cars, public transport vehicles and, of course, pedestrians and cyclists will be allowed.• ‘Carbon-free’ logistics in major urban centres by 2030.• 40% use of sustainable low-carbon fuels in aviation.• At least 40% cut in shipping emissions. • A 50% shift of medium-distance intercity passenger and freight journeys from road to rail and waterborne transport.• Connection of all core network airports to the rail network, preferably the high-speed network; sufficient connection of all core seaports to the rail freight system. • A 60% reduction in transport-related emissions by the middle of the century.• What motorists won’t be happy about: the EU wants to release ‘Guidelines for the imposition of infrastructure costs on passenger vehicles’ which could well lead to Europe-wide ‘road pricing’. • Central to the EU’s transport plan is, however, the change to the rail sector necessary to achieve a significantly higher share of the market for medium-distance (over 300 kilometres) passenger and freight journeys by 2050. Concurrently, the aim is to triple the length of the existing high-speed rail network by 2030. The EU wants to spend 31.7 billion euros on modernising the European transport network and the development of a core network by 2020. The EU commissioner for transport, Siim Kallas, gets to the heart of the issue: ‘European railways have to work with seven different track gauges, and only 20 of our major airports and 35 of our most important seaports are directly connected to the rail system. Europe will not grow and thrive without good connections.’

et’s start with the basic problem: motorised private transport, but also aeroplanes and ships, nearly exclusively use petroleum products for fuel. Whether it’s petrol, diesel, kerosene or bunker oil, they all have one thing in common: the supplies are running out. The world’s reserves of ‘black gold’ are at 188.8 billion tonnes, or 1.3832 trillion barrels (2,199 trillion litres) according to BP‘s latest ‘Statistical Review of World Energy 2011’, statistically seen, that’s enough for the next 46.2 years – up to the year 2057. However, the unknown quantity in this assessment is the growing energy consumption of emerging markets such as China and India. Setting aside carbon emissions and climate change for a moment: even if several further deposits are found or oil can also be refined from oil shale – this resource will progressively become simply too expensive to burn it for fuel.

The automobile industry’s strategyThis scenario hasn’t escaped the notice of the automobile industry – as well

as the current climate debate. Up to now, the popular plan has been to reduce consumption. And here they have been particularly devious while retaining conventional petrol- and diesel-engine technology. According to Mazda’s head of development, Seita Kanai, it will stay this way for a while yet. Kanai: ‘For the foreseeable future, until at least 2020, conventional propulsion methods with internal combustion engines will dominate the market. However, electric components will be included in petrol and diesel engines.’

One further option is the use of alternative fuels such as natural gas. The main benefit of natural gas – aside from fewer carbon and pollutant emissions – is primarily the price. A full tank costs around 15 euros. Maximilian Urban, product manager for electro-mobility and energy efficiency at EVN, energy supplier to Lower Austria: ‘Natural gas is a stepping stone in the path towards alternative mobility. We expect natural gas to be an alternative for motor vehicles for the next 10, 15 or 20 years.’ Currently, EVN provides a number of petrol stations with natural gas pumps. Natural gas is, however, not the solution for all energy-related and environmental problems. E-mobility promoter Urban: ‘This is why we’re now also involved with e-mobility. We are delivering the infrastructure for natural gas mobility first, and then for electro-mobility, too.’

French car manufacturer Renault will also be starting work on an electric car from next year. Thierry Koskas, director of Renault’s ‘Electric Vehicle Strategic Project’: ‘Electric vehicles could make up 15 to 35% of annual car sales in Europe in ten years’ time.’ Mazda’s head of development Seita Kanai, however, predicts a different future for cars: ‘In the long-term, beyond the year 2020, Mazda will be concentrating on hydrogen as a source of propulsion.’

Automobile technologies of the futurePetrol or diesel? This won’t be the only choice in the future. The following

vehicle technologies are definitely on their way: Hybrid cars. The internal combustion engine will be used primarily as a range extender in modern plug-in hybrids. In the city or over short distances, one travels completely emission-free and purely electrically; the batteries can be recharged overnight from a power socket. Paul Philpott, COO of KIA Motors Europe: ‘Hybrid models are paving the way for future affordable electric vehicles. But we foresee a longer-term future in hydrogen technology. Fuel cell vehicles have achieved distances of over 800 kilometres in tests.’

Electric vehicles. The new darling of politicians and the automobile in-dustry is called electro-mobility or e-mobility. The vision is fascinating: a ve-hicle with zero emissions and silent to boot. And now it’s really getting started: Renault will begin its e-mobility offensive with five models at the start of 2012. The old killer argument of distances being too short is only partly true accord-ing to, Koskas, head of the Renault electric vehicle programme: ‘87% of all car journeys in Europe are less than 60 kilometres.’ Apart from the Twizy, however, all Renault’s electric cars are equipped with a reach of at least 160 kilometres. The standard charge time of Renault electric cars is still between 3.5 and 8 hours, and a ‘full tank’ costs a whole two euros. Fast-charge stations are to be able to transfer enough energy for a 60-kilometre journey in ten minutes in the future, and Koskas is also hoping – as are other e-mobility promoters – for the implementation of a network of ‘quick drop’ battery swapping stations: ‘In three minutes, you’ll have a fully charged battery again.’ Ford, Nissan, Audi and BMW also have e-speedsters up their sleeves. Andreas Schamel, head of research for Ford Europe: ‘We expect the proportion of electric vehicles in global Ford sales to be 25% by 2020.’

Hydrogen and fuel cells. The fiercest competitor in the battle for the car’s future is hydrogen propulsion, or the hydrogen-filled fuel cell. Here, the product of combustion is harmless steam. Technologically advanced: Japanese car manufacturer Mazda has been making the Mazda RX8 Hydrogen RE for

34: MOBILITY

SLOWING DOWN: MODERN ZEPPELINS

NEED LITTLE ENERGY AND PROVIDE NEW LEVELS OF TRAVEL

COMFORT.

LJapanese and Norwegian business fleets. Another conception of hydrogen propulsion is the fuel cell. In this mini-power station, electricity is generated by the chemical reaction of hydrogen with oxygen which electrically powers the vehicle. Fuel cells are in use today, for example, in submarines. Opel is currently testing a fuel cell vehicle, the HydroGen4, in the IKEA Germany and ENERTRAG fleets. The main benefit of hydrogen propulsion: hydrogen can be obtained from water by electrolysis in an environmentally sound way. If the future of automobiles lies in hydrogen by 2050, then ‘that’s fine’ with domestic energy providers such as EVN. Urban: ‘Regardless of the type of power, we will supply the infrastructure for it.’

2050 – on land, by sea and in the airRail. In this country, rail is likely to continue in a conventional way. The head

of ÖBB Holding, Christian Kern, is not taking magnetic suspension railways into consideration for the time being; instead, the focus is on speeding up rail traffic on the main routes. The Westbahn is to be extended in sections to cope with maximum speeds of 250 kilometres per hour; the newly commissioned Railjet locomotives can already achieve 230 kilometres per hour. ÖBB have even thought of something for the ‘last mile’ between train station and destination. The quintessence: ‘Our eMORAIL project is concerned with the combination of public means of transport and electric vehicles.’ In brief: ÖBB clients will be loaned an electric vehicle for the journey from or to the train station.

The EU is completely focused on rail in any case (see box).Shipping. If one considers the ratio of freight to energy consumption,

then water is an economically unbeatable mode of transport. Ships consume – compared to road transport – per tonne and mile only a tenth of the otherwise necessary fuel. But even heavy fuel oil (bunker oil) used in this way will eventually run out. One of the solutions is – as with cars – hybrid technology. Japanese shipping company MOL Mitsui O.S.K. Ltd. wants to launch a car freighter with hybrid technology in Kobe in June 2012. ENERCON, the German wind turbine manufacturer, is also treading unconventional paths with its cargo ship E-Ship 1. The ship has four 27-metre high Flettner rotors to provide auxiliary power for the six Mitsubishi marine diesel engines. Using wind power is to create a fuel savings of 30 to 40%.

Aeroplanes. In 2050, 9.2 billion people will populate the world (there are seven billion today). This will have an impact on air transport. EADS subsidiary Airbus has a plan for combating the collapse of air transport: aeroplanes need to be even lighter, produce less air resistance and save kerosene. Real alterna-tives to the jet are not on the cards, according to Airbus, but because they are also aware of the ‘expiration date’ for the age of petroleum, they are focusing on the use of agricultural biofuels, which is admittedly ethically controversial.

NASA and Lockheed Martin, however, believe that the supersonic airliner will return: their ‘Supersonic Green Machine’ could go into production in 2030.

The ‘Aircruise’ strategy developed by the Seymourpowell design consultancy focuses on a new kind of slowing down. The 265-metre-high airship filled with hydrogen is to be powered by solar energy and fuel cells, and its speed of 100 to 150 kilometres per hour is enough to cross the Atlantic in 37 hours. Nick Talbot, design director at Seymourpowell: ‘The Aircruise concept stands for a more relaxed travel experience, and will appeal most to those in search of a more contemplative journey.’ Is slowing down the key to the future?

We’re not moving. The world around us is moving. Perhaps part of the mobility problem will be solved very differently by

2050. Many things that have been ‘stationary’ can now be picked up and taken with you. The telephone has become mobile, the Internet, entertainment and the office; the motto is: ‘anyplace, anywhere, anytime’. In 2050 we won’t have to drive to a meeting any more – a 3-D video conference on the roll-out tablet will do just as well ...

36:

In my opinion, the future of mobility lies – especially in large conurbations – in pub-lic transport, which is being extended and optimised in many cities. Some things are going to be slowed down: we will walk a lot more, use bicycles and so on.In all the motion that will always surround us, we will hopefully have (more) time for ourselves and our relationships. My hope: we will take more time to stop more often. And devote ourselves to the people who are important to us. Even in the hustle and bustle of a train station.

Michael Kammeter lives and works in Munich and Vienna. His clients include organisations such as ADAC, Allianz, Munich Airport, Deloitte and media such as Business Vogue, GQ, Elle and Flair.

Michael Kammeter

Insig

ht

Those who lived through the 1980s will re-member this: many experts prophesied the death of entire forests due to acid rain. This is what precipitation is called when its pH value is lower than the pH value that is naturally produced in pure water by the natural car-bon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. This can happen primarily with the sulphur ox-ides produced from the use of sulphurous fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, which form sulphuric acid when mixed with water (and sometimes oxygen). When burnt, nitrogen oxides are released that become nitric acid when combined with water and oxygen. Sul-phuric acid is responsible for around 65% (nitric acid accounts for about 35%) of the acidification of precipitation. But, today we know that our forests are con-sistently healthy and acid rain is no longer an issue. But it would be too easy to describe these past warnings as completely excessive. Be-cause we took them seriously and took ac-tion. We very quickly began to desulphurise flue gases. Transport fuel – whether for cars or aeroplanes – has been desulphurised for more than 30 years. In addition, incorpo-rating catalytic converters into cars has re-moved the majority of nitrogen oxides. So it would be more correct to say: the doom scenarios presented in those days made the warnings into a ‘self-destructing prophecy’ – we reacted and our forests have been able to recover.

This study, published in 1972, was commis-sioned by the Club of Rome and is one of the most successful books of all time with over 30 million sales. The central conclusion of the report was: ‘If present growth trends in world population, industrialisation, pollu-tion, food production and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next hundred years.’ These predictions of collapse were primarily based on the dy-namics of exponential growth. The Limits to Growth exploded like a bomb – and was also severely criticised. Henry C. Wallich, a professor at Yale, described the report in a Newsweek editorial as ‘irrespon-sible nonsense’. In 2004, a 30-year update was published. Its conclusion: further ‘business as usual’ will lead to a worldwide collapse in 2030. Only a simulation of an ambitious mix of reducing consumption, controlling population growth, reducing emissions of pollutants and so on can produce a sustainable society. Why are we examining The Limits to Growth now, despite all of this? Many of their prog-noses proved to be (nearly) correct in a 1992 evaluation. We have mentioned this book because many journalists painted a picture of an inevitable apocalypse following the publication of the report – something that, on close examination, the book does not contain, or only to a much lesser extent. Therefore, The Limits to Growth has also (and primarily) revealed the limits of journalism …

38: FINAL WORDS

‘Acid rain will destroy our forests.’

Limits to growth

‘It’s best to converse with prophets three

years later.’This quote from Sir Peter Ustinov pointedly

describes how fast future scenarios and prognoses can turn out to be wrong. In this magazine, we have tried – with the help of numerous

national and international experts – to take a scientifically grounded look at the future of

our country, Europe and the world. But of course, we also know: especially in times of radical change and reorientation – and we live in such times – even the finest brains can be

mistaken. Here are a few examples of mistakes, prediction errors, miscalculations and

self-destructing prophecies ...

‘I believe in the horse. The automobile is only a temporary phenomenon.’

‘There is no reason for individuals to have computers in their homes.’

Kaiser Wilhelm II (1859–1941)The German emperor was very much mistaken. In 2010 alone, nearly 78 million cars were produced.

Ken Olson, president and founder of the computer manu facturer Digital Equipment Corporation (born 1926)According to Statistics Austria, 78.1% of Austrian households currently have a computer.

‘Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.’Darryl F. Zanuck, head of 20th Century Fox (1902–1979)Zanuck was right about one thing: TV casings aren’t made of plywood any more …

‘Radio has no future.’Lord Kelvin, mathematician and physicist (1824–1907)Also a mistake. On www.mycyberradio.com alone you can receive 4,000 radio stations.

Ex-Beatle John Lennon was probably the most successful song writer of the 1960s and 1970s. He grew up with his aunt. After he had become famous, successful and rich, he gave her a golden plaque. On it were engraved the words that he had heard all throughout his youth: ‘The guitar’s all right John, but you’ll never make a living with it.’W

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ImprintPublished by: EVN AG, EVN Platz, A-2344 Maria Enzersdorf

Service telephone: 0800 800 100 (in Austria)Service telephone for investors: 0800 800 200 (in Austria)

www.evn.at

Concept, Editorship, Art Director: Ralf Strobl, Eva Urthaler Concept, Project management, Consulting: Mensalia

Cover image: Daniel Gebhart de Koekkoek

This magazine is part of the EVN Full Report 2010/11. The entire Full Report can be found at www.evn.at.

“Zwentendorf will now be brought on line this year.”

Austrian Trade Union Federation President Anton Benya on 12 May 1978.