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www.lead.org.pkOffice No.13 Plot 14, 2nd Floor Executive Complex G-8 Islamabad, PakistanTel: +92 (51) 2651511, Fax: +92 (51) 2340058, Email: [email protected]
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Inspiring leadership for a sustainable world
This policy brief will explore, the future
climatic changes in the Kabul River basin
located in the Hindu Kush Mountain ranges
of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The latest
datasets of statistically downscaled CMIP5
Global Climate Models (GCMs) and NASA
Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled
Projections (NEXGDDP) were used.
The dataset delivers valuable local scale,
high-resolution climate change information
for past and future periods (1950–2100) on
a daily basis, which is very suitable for
exploring future changes in mean and
extremes of both temperature and
precipitation. Future projections indicate a
consistent rise in mean temperature over
the entire Kabul River Basin, relative to the
baseline under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
emission scenarios - simply interpreted as
the difference between energy absorbed
by the Earth and energy radiated back into
the space. Although the increase in
temperature is not uniform across the
domain, upper reaches of the basin show
annua l and seasona l warming of
approximately 6.8°C by the end of the 21st
century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These
changes are significant at a 95% confidence
level. The rise in summer and winter
temperatures may negatively affect the
snow accumulation during winter and has
potential to accelerate glacier melting
during summers. Projections of future
precipitation under both scenarios show an
overall decrease in mean precipitation. The
br ief furn ishes a ser ies of pol icy
recommendations for informing decision
makers and water policy experts to devise
future interventions in light of climate
change projections.
IntroductionThe Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region has
the largest concentration of glaciers outside
the Poles and feeds seven of Asia's greatest
rivers. The region is termed as the most
tenuous ecological areas, vulnerable to
climate change especially its impact on
water resources which can be quite diverse
and uncertain. Different climate conditions
co-exist in these complex mountain ranges,
due to the influence of multiple circulation
systems and several climate feedbacks of
atmosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere,
thus making the region highly vulnerable to
climate change related impacts (Palazzi et
al. 2013). Therefore, future water resource
assessment under climate change lens is
the need of the hour for planning and
operation of necessary hydrological
installations. Seasonal flow forecasting
with respect to climate change could
provide significant benefits for the
management of national power strategies
by providing an early indication of surplus
or shortfall in hydropower, which would
require balancing with thermal power
sources.
The Kabul River basin is shared with
estimated nine million people living in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Kabul River
with its five tributaries makes around 26
percent of available water resources in
Afghanistan (King, & Sturtewagen, 2010)
and irrigates 72,000 km² of land (FAO,
2012). The presence of climate change-
related vulnerabilities pose a serious threat
to the socio-economic development of the
population that is dependent on the water
resources of Kabul River. Global Climate
Models (GCMs) are being widely used by
the scientific community in studies of past
climates, and to project future climate
Key Messages
æ9 million people in both Pakistan and
Afghanistan rely and benefit from the Kabul
River Basin, however research shows that
precipitation is likely to decrease by 50
percent in this region due to climate
change.
æ The rise in mean annual temperatures will
in turn accelerate snow and glacier melt
rates thereby increasing the probability of
intense and frequent flashfloods in the
Kabul River Basin.
æ Lack of climate data pertinent to the Kabul
River Basin impedes the development of a
sustainable management framework.
Therefore, the expansion of climatological
and hydrological networks in the region is
imperative to not only devise mitigation
and adaptation strategies in Pakistan but
also to share data and build a joint
watershed management system in
collaboration with Afghanistan.
æClimate change threatens food security in
both countries by altering water availability
patterns therefore climate smart irrigation
is vital in order to secure agricultural
productivity. Use of drip irrigation,
adjustments in cropping patterns and
introduction of water-efficient crops need
to be taken into account on a national scale.
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Climate Change Projections of Kabul River Basin using Multi-Model Ensemble
85 Policy Brief
Figure 1: Boundaries of Kabul River Basin and elevation in meters. Glaciers are marked in blue and white shade. Black dot shows the location of outlet river gauging station
under different socio-economic and Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
emission scenarios (Almazroui et al. 2012; Annamalai et al. 2007;
Taylor et al. 2012).
This policy brief is based on a study conducted by Pakistan
Meteorological Department (PMD) to provide a robust assessment
of the present-day climate and its future changes under two
emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using statistically
downscaled and bias corrected projections of GCMs of the CMIP5.
This study is based on 21 downscaled GCMs and two scenarios
(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of CMIP5 family. This policy brief will help
form a basis for the estimation of changes in the hydrological cycle
of the basin, and inform decision makers and water policy experts
to devise future interventions in light of these climate change
projections.
Study Area, Data & MethodologyThe Kabul River Basin (KRB) is an upland enveloped by mountains
stretching through the north-western part of Pakistan to the
eastern central part of Afghanistan (Fig 1). The Kabul River
originates from the Hindu Kush Mountains and is one of the major
rivers in Afghanistan with a high population density (Fakhri et al. 22007). The Basin covers an area of about 92,000 km and splits into
five sub-basins:
1. The Paghman river - merges into the Basin from the west where
it evolves into a tributary of the KRB and eventually enters into the
Indus catchment over the Pakistan side of the Basin;
2. The Logar river - merges into the Basin from the south and
discharges therein;
3. The Kunar river - originates from the Chitral Valley in Pakistan,
enters Afghanistan through Kunar and reroutes towards Pakistan
after flowing up to Jalalabad province in Afghanistan;
4. The Salang, Ghorband, and Panjshir rivers - form the
Ghorband–Panjshir watershed;
5. The Alishang and Alinigar rivers - converge at Surobi (Hassanyar
et al. 2017; Lashkaripour and Hussaini 2007).
According to Bajracharya et al. (2011), there are around 1,600
glaciers located in the Kabul basin, with the highest and largest
concentration in the Kunar and Swat sub-basins. There is a high
variation of received precipitation throughout the year due to the
complex terrain. Approximately all of the precipitation in the basin
falls during the winter season and is mostly “snow precipitation”
which is reserved over the mountains to recharge the rivers in the
melt season. Rivers dehydrate when the snow has completely
melted. Hence, there is no continuous water supply available in
the rivers flowing within the KRB. Water supply from snow or ice
melt represents a major contribution to discharge during the
summer months.
Results and ConclusionGenerally, a warmer climate is expected towards the end of
century, which could result in accelerated snow and glacier melt
processes. During the mid-century, the mean temperature is
expected to rise between 3.2-3.7°C in the western parts of the
domain. The range of temperature changes by the end of the
century is estimated at 5.8°C – 6.8 °C.
There is evidence that in the 21st century, precipitation may
decrease up to 50 percent across KRB. The decrease in
precipitation could be more pronounced on the western parts of
KRB in Afghanistan. Summer precipitation is seen to decrease less
compared (0 to 15 percent). Strong negative change signal, along
with an increase in warming, may induce frequent occurrences of
flash floods and affect streamflow dynamics.
Policy Recommendations
Hydrological responses to climate change
æAn assessment should be carried out on water related hazards
which frequently transform into disasters due to climate
change. Without such an assessment, management of climate
change impacts would take on a reactive approach which is
deemed unsustainable. Risk assessment exercises should be
conducted by involving all stakeholders, such as policy makers
and climate experts.
æAll inactive hydro-meteorological stations should be
operationalized, maintained and upgraded. In order to do so,
focus should be on capacity building of the local staff dealing
with these stations.
æPolicies pertinent to disaster elusion and community resilience
should be drafted in order to make communities well-equipped
in times of disasters. This will not only considerably lower the
damages inflicted by natural disasters but will also reduce the
need of post disaster relief operations.
æ Expansion of hydro meteorological networks in the entire basin
will help contribute towards the attainment of accurate and
reliable database for future planning, research and
development.
Policy Brief
Climate Change Projections of Kabul River using multi-model ensemble
Figure 1: Boundaries of Kabul River Basin and elevation in meters. Glaciers are marked in blue and white shade. Black dot shows the location of outlet river gauging station
æGlacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) early warning systems
should be installed in the disaster prone valleys on the
eastern side of the basin, where most glaciers are located, in
order to reduce the risk of communities exposed to the
hazard, since mountain systems are particularly sensitive to
climate change.
æResearch study on coping mechanisms for local communities
in disaster prone areas can help curb health, livelihood,
economic and environmental hazards caused from natural
calamities and develop improved adaptation measures.
æA technical study should be conducted on robust early
warning systems in the context of climate change and the
changing ecology.
Irrigation and storage capacity
æ Identification of most suitable sites for expanding/
intensifying irrigation schemes and spotting locations that are
appropriate for raising storage capacity of basins/sub-basins
(reservoirs, aquifers) to balance detrimental impacts of
climate and land use as projected for the coming future.
æPolicy reforms are needed for water management, water
quality and water allocations within and among different
consumers as well as across sub-basins.
æRehabilitation and development of irrigation infrastructure
can significantly minimize conveyance water losses, improve
water use efficiency and meet production demands.
æ Climate Smart Irrigation should be adopted in order to benefit
from the seasonal shift of flows as a result of increased river
flows during spring season. Adjusting the cropping calendar
and introduction of new innovative technological practices in
order to best use the water that is wasted due to seasonal
shifts can result in increased land and crop productivity.
Water Demand Management through improved capacity
æ Capacity building is required at the local level to be able to
respond technically and on time to the growing food and
water demand with the rapid urbanization in this agrarian
country.
æAwareness of the local communities about future climate
change, its impacts on future rivers flows and adaptation
strategies to minimize human and material loss is missing
and must be addressed on immediate basis.
æAdaptation and mitigation policy adopted from the IWRM
framework can contribute towards reduced risk of water
stress and water shortage.
æGaps in water resource management such as discharge of
excess water due to lack of reservoirs and dams needs to be
addressed. Small hydropower installations can help conserve
snowmelt water caused by increased temperatures.
æ It is relevant for policy makers to be aware of current as well
as the anticipated water availability situation in order to
develop the most appropriate adaptation strategies and
analyze the cost to overcome the possible projected water
shortages in future.
Policy Brief
Climate Change Projections of Kabul River using multi-model ensemble
Referencesæ Almazroui M, Abid M, Athar H, Islam M, Ehsan M (2012) Interannual variability of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula using the IPCC AR4
Global Climate Models. Int. J. Climatol 33(10):2328-2340.æ Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber K (2007) The South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations. J.
Climate 20(6):1071-1092.æ Bachner S, Kapala A, Simmer C (2008) Evaluation of daily precipitation characteristics in the CLM and their sensitivity to parameterizations.
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17(4):407-419.æ Bajracharya SR, Shrestha B (eds) (2011) The status of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. Kathmandu: ICIMODæ Chen YJ, Shui K, Shi H, Zheng (2016) Analysis of historical climate datasets for hydrological modellingæ across south Asia. CSIRO Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio project. Technical report.æ CSIRO Land and Water, Australia.æ Ekström M, Grose MR, Whetton PH (2015) An appraisal of downscaling methods used in climate change research. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim
Change 6(3):301-319.æ Fakhri RA, (2007) Socio economic and demographic profile – Afghan Agriculture.æ FAO (2012) "Land cover atlas of The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (2010)." Strengthening Agricultural Economics, Market Information and
Statistics Services in Afghanistan (GCP/AFG/063/EC).æ Ficklin DL, Abatzoglou JT, Robeson SM, Dufficy A (2016) The influence of climate model biases on projections of aridity and drought. J. Climate
29(4):1269-1285.æ Hassanyar MH, Hassani S, Dozier J (2017) Multi-model Ensemble Climate Change Projection for Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan under
Representative Concentration Pathways. Glob Res Dev Journ Eng, 02(05):69-78.æ Hutchinson MF, Xu T (2013) Anusplin Version 4.4 User Guide.æ King M, Sturtewagen B (2010), Making the most of Afghanistan's river basins: Opportunities for regional cooperation. EastWest Institute,
New York.æ Knutti R (2008) Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A:
Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 366(1885):4647-4664.Lashkaripour G, Hussaini S (2007) Water resource management in Kabul river basin, eastern Afghanistan. The Environmentalist, 28(3):253-260.
æ Lutz AF, ter-Maat HW, Biemans H, Shrestha AB, Wester P, Immerzeel WW (2016) Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope� based selection approach. Int. J. Climatol 36(12):3988-4005.
æ Leung LR, Mearns LO, Giorgi F, Wilby RL (2003) Regional climate research: needs and opportunities. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84(1):89-95.æ Madadgar S, Moradkhani H (2014) Improved Bayesian multi-modelling: Integration of copulas and Bayesian model averaging. Water
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About LEAD PakistanLeadership for Environment and Development (LEAD) Pakistan is a reputable national institution, and has emerged as a thought leader in building consensus and shaping the development discourse in Pakistan. Particularly focusing on climate change, water governance and SDG implementation, LEAD strives to ensure that the federal and provincial governments' development agendas are equitable, inclusive and in line with international commitments and global best practices.
We remain committed to the design, development and delivery of innovative policy solutions to promote economically sustainable, socially equitable, and environmentally responsible growth. With successful delivery of over 200 development initiatives to date and being the largest network based organization in Pakistan, we are endeavouring to enhance our impact on development in Pakistan, the South Asian region and beyond.
DisclaimerThe information contained in this policy brief is mostly obtained from secondary resources and views of the faculty, which may not necessarily be aligned with LEAD Pakistan's official position on specific issues.
CopyrightsYou may quote or reproduce materials from this publication with due acknowledgement to LEAD Pakistan, unless indicated otherwise.
For more policy briefs visit our websitehttp://www.lead.org.pk
SuggestionsLEAD Pakistan welcomes corrections and comments on its publications. Please feel free to send comments on content, including typography, formatting, or other errors. Simply copy the page, mark the error, and send it to Focal Person Publications on the postal address given below or email at [email protected]
Contact usLEAD PakistanOffice No.13 Plot 14, 2nd Floor Executive ComplexG-8 Islamabad - 44000PakistanT: +92 (051) 2651511F: +92 (051) 2340058E: [email protected]: www.lead.org.pk
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AcknowledgementThe Water Programme of LEAD Pakistan developed this Policy Brief under the USAID's Partnership for Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER) program Cycle 4 project titled “Understanding our Joint Water-Climate Change Challenge and Exploring Policy Options for Cooperation on the Afghan-Pak Transboundary Kabul River Basin”. This policy paper is largely adapted from the research study 'Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin using a multi-model ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data', carried out by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The paper suggests policy recommendations for the future planning, research and development of Kabul River Basin, in terms of addressing the gaps and introduction of policy reforms needed for water resource management. PMD acknowledges CSIRO Land and Water, Australia, for providing observed gridded Air Temperature and Precipitation data. LEAD wants to thank Mr. Khalid Mohtadullah, Senior Advisor Water Programme, LEAD Pakistan for providing valuable insight and expertise that assisted in improving the manuscript.
About the Policy BriefThis policy paper is based on the research paper 'Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin using a multimodel ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data', authored by Mr. Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari, Mr. Ahmed Burhan, Mr. Shakeel Ahmad, Mr. Jahangir Ali, Mr. Haris Mushtaq and Dr. Ghulam Rasool from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The contents of this brief have been gleaned solely from the research study.
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Writer:
Editor:
Designer:
Produced by:
Rabel Haider, Focal Person, Programme Department
Meera Omar, YPO, Learning and Knowledge Management
Tania Imran, YPO, Programme Department
Abbas Mushtaq, Focal Person Knowledge Management
Learning and Knowledge Management