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AFG Pic gazier 18 novembre 2006
Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts
Pierre-René BAUQUIS
Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School)Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés)
Ancien Directeur Gaz Electricité Charbon du Groupe Total
ASSOCIATION FRANCAISE DU GAZ
AFG Pic gazier 28 novembre 2006
PARTIE 1
RAPPEL : LA PROBLEMATIQUE DU PICDU PETROLE
AFG Pic gazier 38 novembre 2006
Brief summary of past findings and views
• The only "publically available data" on oil reserves are the so called "proven reserves".
• Unfortunately, they are totally useless to study and predict "Peak Oil".
• The only "usable" concepts for "peak oil estimation", at oil basins levels, countries levels or world level are : Ultimate reserves concept Evolution of past exploration performances and
production curves (creaming curves) King Hubbert methodology (world applicability).
AFG Pic gazier 48 novembre 2006
A few ‘peak oil’ websites
3w.peakoil.net3w.aspofrance.org3w.oilcrisis.com3w.peakoil.com
ASPO France members(June 2006):
Jean Laherrère (formerly Total)Pierre-René Bauquis (fy Total)Carlos Cramez (fy Total)Jean-Luc WingertXavier Chavannes (Paris VII) Jean-Marc Jancovici (fy Envt)Alain Perrodon (fy Elf)Paul Alba (fy Elf)Maurice Allègre (fy IFP)Jacques Varet (BRGM)Adolphe Nicolas (Montpellier Uni)Jean-Marie Bourdaire (ex Total)Bernard Rogeaux (EDF)
2000 – 2006 : a historical warning by ASPO2000 – 2006 : a historical warning by ASPO
Are we here ?
AFG Pic gazier 58 novembre 2006
Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves
and that there is no problemand that there is no problem
Oil world reservesOil world reserves
Gas world reservesGas world reserves
19731973
Years ofYears ofconsumptionconsumption
GTOEGTOEYears ofYears of
consumptionconsumptionGTOEGTOE
20002000
8686
5252
3030
4848
140140
140140
4040
6565
PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE
AFG Pic gazier 68 novembre 2006
What the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio meansWhat the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio means
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
World oil production (Mbep/d)
30 years
R/P = 40 years
!
? ??
this area = already usedthis area = reserves left
AFG Pic gazier 78 novembre 2006
But a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggestsBut a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggestsa different picturea different picture
Between 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimatesBetween 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimates
have practically remained flat.have practically remained flat.
G barrelsG barrels
19731973Ultimate reserves Ultimate reserves
(conventional crude, (conventional crude, worldwide)worldwide)
2000 - 30002000 - 3000 2000 - 30002000 - 3000
20002000
source: PR Bauquis 26-28 novembre 2000 - Global Foundation
AFG Pic gazier 88 novembre 2006Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000
* Cumulative production + proven reserves + possible reserves yet to be discoveredGb
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Pra
tt (
1942
)D
uce
(19
46)
Po
ug
e (1
946)
Wee
ks (
1948
)L
ever
son
(19
49)
Wee
ks (
1949
)M
acN
aug
hto
n (
1953
)H
ub
ber
t (1
956)
Wee
ks (
1958
)W
eeks
(19
59)
Hen
dri
cks
(196
5)R
yam
n (
1967
)S
hel
l (19
68)
Wee
ks (
1968
)H
ub
ber
t (1
969)
Mo
od
y (1
970)
Wee
ks (
1971
)W
arm
an (
1972
)B
auq
uis
(19
72)
Sch
wei
nfu
rth
(19
73)
Lin
den
(19
73)
Bo
nill
as (
1974
)H
ow
itt
(197
4)M
oo
dy
(197
5)W
EC
(19
77)
Nel
son
(19
77)
De
Bru
yne
(197
8)K
lem
me
(197
8)N
ehri
ng
(19
78)
Neh
rin
g (
1979
)H
alb
ou
ty (
1979
)M
eyer
ho
ff (
1979
)R
oo
rda
(197
9)H
alb
ou
ty (
1979
)W
EC
(19
80)
Str
ickl
and
(19
81)
Co
liti (
1981
)N
ehri
ng
(19
82)
Mas
ters
(19
83)
Kal
inin
(19
83)
Mar
tin
(19
84)
Ivan
ho
e (1
984)
Mas
ters
(19
87)
Cam
pb
ell (
1991
)M
aste
rs (
1991
)T
ow
nes
(19
93)
Pet
roco
nsu
lt. (
1993
)M
aste
rs (
1994
)U
SG
S (
2000
)
1940194019491949
1950195019591959
1960196019691969
1970197019791979
1980198019891989
1990199020002000
HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES
AFG Pic gazier 98 novembre 2006
THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONSIN THE USA
(*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is « forwarded » by 33 years
Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere
AFG Pic gazier 108 novembre 2006
34
39
29
7
110111
16
36
32
36
20
1412
1311
58
47
24 5
7
9
15
20 23 2123
2426 27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
01/0506/10 11/1516/2021/2526/30 31/3536/40 41/4546/50 51/5556/60 61/6566/70 71/7576/80 81/8586/90 91/9596/002001 -2004 (*)
Gboe/year (5-year average)
‘Classic’ exploration
Deep sea (>500m)
Kashagan / Shah Deniz
Liquid HC production
Sources:- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
(*) 4-year average
2.2 4.7
4.21.5
0.9
Excl. non-conventional oils
such as Athabasca and
Orenoco
Oil and condensate discoveries and worldwide production of liquid hydrocarbons
AFG Pic gazier 118 novembre 2006
Schistes bitumineux
Pays de l’OCDE 2005
Pays de l’OPEC 2005
Pays non OCDE – non OPEC
18 15 10 5
20052005 20202020 20502050 21002100
8361
6441
3511
13
0.5 0.5
Production par pays ou Zones géographiques(hydrocarbures liquides naturelsProduction par pays ou Zones géographiques(hydrocarbures liquides naturels
USACanadaMer du NordAutres
Sous total
9 12 7 4Arabie 3.5 5 3 2Iran 2.5 5 4 2Irak
1 1 1 0.5Autres
2 3 2 1Koweit2 4 5 4Venezuela2 3 1 0.5Algérie + Libye2 3 1 0.5Nigéria3 4 1 0.5Emirats + Qatar
27 40 25 15 Sous total
Russie et autres : Kazakstan, Azerbaïdjan,Angola, Mexique, Argentine, Colombie, Brésil, Congo, etc…
4 / 81 5 / 98 3.5 / 69 2.6 / 50 Total Monde GTep / mb/d
36 43 30 20
4 10
Prospective de la production pétrolière mondiale(first draft : final draft objective end 2006)
AFG Pic gazier 128 novembre 2006
Conclusions about "peak oil"
Since June 2006 it can be considered that views about Peak Oil in France have become reasonably similar :
TOTAL : Thierry Desmarest – around 2020 / around 100 Mb/d ASPO France : J. Laherrère – around 2015 / less than 100 Mb/d
IFP : Y. Mathieu –ondulated plateau 20150/2030 – less than 100 Mb/d
This point of view is widely different from those among the "optimists" who believe that Peak Oil is not "reserves related" but a political problem : insufficient investments and restrictive policies about investments by OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico :
Exxon-Mobil – ongoing at ad. Campaign "no signs of peak oil" Aramco – July 2006 – "no reserves problems" BP : John Browne – May 2006 - "There is no reserves problem" Mike Lynch (ex MIT) – "similar and above 120 Mb/d" USGS, DOE, EIA, IEA…
AFG Pic gazier 138 novembre 2006
AFG Pic gazier 148 novembre 2006
PARTIE 2
LA PROBLEMATIQUE DU PICDU GAZ
AFG Pic gazier 158 novembre 2006
Applicabilité au gaz des méthodologiesutilisables pour le pic pétrolier
Réserves ultimes et
courbes d'écrémage
. oui, mais incertitudes très différentes de celles du pétrole (taux de récupération facteur majeur pour le pétrole, secondaire pour le gaz).
. Moindre maturité de l'exploration gaz pour le Courbes d'écrémage.
. Plus d'incertitudes pour les ressources en place non conventionnelles de gaz que de pétrole ?
Etudes "bottom-up" : . Méthodologie la plus prometteuse.
Courbes de Hubbert : . L'échec aux USA. L'applicabilité probable au plan mondial.
AFG Pic gazier 168 novembre 2006
18
26
8
16
23
1514
23
65
52
3
0 0 0 0 0 1 2
6
11
6
151413
119
87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
01/0506/10 11/1516/2021/2526/30 31/3536/40 41/4546/50 51/5556/60 61/6566/70 71/7576/80 81/8586/90 91/9596/002001 -2004 (*)
(*) 4-year average
Gboe/uear (5-year average)
1.4
2.2
3.9
‘Classic’ exploration
Deep sea (>500m)
Kashagan / Shah Deniz
Liquid HC production
Sources:- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
Gas-hydrocarbon discoveries and production worldwide
(Hubbert methodology for world gas)
AFG Pic gazier 178 novembre 2006
Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (1)
AFG Pic gazier 188 novembre 2006
Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (2)
AFG Pic gazier 198 novembre 2006
Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (3)
AFG Pic gazier 208 novembre 2006
Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (4)
AFG Pic gazier 218 novembre 2006
Source : Cedigaz 2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1950
1970
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Gm
3
AutresAustralie
AlgérieIndonésie
VenezuelaQatar
NorvègeNigeria
Arabie SaouditeIran
CEIRussie
Etats-Unis
Evolution historique de la production nette de gaz dans le monde(1950-2004 – gaz commercialisé)
AFG Pic gazier 228 novembre 2006
(Vision du LEPII) : sources ?
AFG Pic gazier 238 novembre 2006
Vision PR. Bauquis du profil gazier mondial
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
pic/plateau : 2030-20504000 Gm3/an
Réserves ultimes >400 Gtep
pic plateau : 2020-20304000 Gm3/an
Réerves ultimes > 300 GTep
Vision LEPIIpic/plateau : 2030-2050
Réserves ultimes > 500 GTep
Plateau à6000 Gm3/an
AFG Pic gazier 248 novembre 2006
Conclusions
Il reste beaucoup de travail à faire pour mieux déterminer les deux paramètres essentiels du "pic gaz" au plan mondial :
Date ou fourchette de dates Niveau de production mondiale.
L'IFP; l'AFGTP, l'AFG… et l'ASPO doivent y consacrer des efforts importants car les enjeux sont majeurs : ce devrait être un pôle privilégié de coopération entre l'AFG et l'AFTP.
Il faut que ces travaux soient consacrés tant aux études globales ("Top Down") que détaillées ("Bottom Up").
(objectif PRB 2007 : un profil gaz mondial long terme "Bottom Up")