8 ECONOMY & PUBLIC AFFAIRS >
MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 15 JANUARY 2021
WPI inflation eases, but core spikesINDIVJAL DHASMANA New Delhi,
13 January
In tandem with its retail counterpart, the wholesale inflation
rate softened to a four-month low of 1.22 per cent in December as
food items entered deflationary zone. The inflation rate based on
wholesale price index (WPI) was 1.55 per cent in November.
However, the core inflation rate — which does not include food
and fuel items — rose to a two-year high of 4.2 per cent on metal
and commodity prices, sig-naling the Monetary Policy Committee of
the Reserve Bank of India may not go for a rate cut in February.
This was despite the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation
rate declining to a 15-month low of 4.6 per cent.
There are diversionary trends in the inflation rates of food and
manufactured items (sans processed food products).
Food prices fell 1.61 per cent in December against an inflation
rate of 2.72 per cent in the previous month.
Vegetables, which have recently seen a huge spike in the
inflation rate, wit-nessed deflation of 13.2 per cent in
December. Onions saw prices dropping 55 per cent.
The fuel and power category contin-ued to see a fall in prices
even as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) saw an inflation rate of 2.15
per cent against deflation of 4.38 per cent in November. The
deflation in fuel and power declined to 8.72 per cent against 9.87
per cent.
Krupesh Thakkar, head of the depart-ment of financial markets at
ITM B-School, said though the fuel inflation index is negative
owing to the higher base of last year, on a month-on-month basis,
it has gone up by 3.2 per cent, owing to a
steep rise in the prices of LPG, petrol and diesel. “This was
expected as India’s crude oil basket jumped 15 per cent (in volume
terms) in December,” he said.
Manufactured items saw the inflation rate jumping to 4.24 per
cent, from 2.97 per cent in the previous month. However, processed
food items in this category saw the inflation rate coming down to
4.89 per cent from 4.95 per cent.
Core inflation remained a matter of concern.
Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ICRA, said it injected
concern regarding the trajectory of the WPI. She attributed this to
higher commodity and metal prices as well as a rise in pricing
power in line with the revival in global demand with the covid-19
vaccines roll-out.
“The surge in the core-WPI inflation has completely doused any
lingering hope that the dip in the December CPI inflation would be
adequate for rate easing to recommence in the upcoming policy
review,” Nayar said.
Sameer Narang, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, said of the 22
commodi-ties in manufactured products, prices of 15 rose.
NIKUNJ OHRI New Delhi, 14 January
The economy will suffer a “lasting” damage from the Covid-19
crisis after a strong rebound in financial year end-ing March 2022,
with its growth slowing to around 6.5 per cent a year over FY23 to
FY26, according to Fitch Ratings.
This would be due to a combination of supply-side scarring and
demand-side constraints such as the weak state of the financial
sector that will keep the gross domes-tic product (GDP) well below
its pre-pandemic path, the rat-ings agency said.
The Covid-induced reces-sion in India has been among the most
severe in the world due to a stringent lockdown and limited direct
fiscal sup-port. “The economy is now in a recovery phase that will
be further supported by the roll-
out of vaccines in the next months and we expect GDP to expand
by 11 per cent in FY22 after falling by 9.4 per cent in FY21,” it
said.
India is projected to wit-ness its first GDP contraction of 7.7
per cent in decades, according to government’s
first Advance Estimates. The RBI has projected the econo-my to
shrink by 7.5 per cent in the current fiscal year.
Even as the growth will be supported by the rollout of effective
vaccines, the level of GDP will remain well below its pre-pandemic
path even after
the health crisis has passed, the agency said.
“The current recession will leave lasting scars,” it said. The
crisis will mean lower invest-ment growth for some years, and
slower capital accumula-tion will be the main source of weaker
supply-side growth, according to the agency.
The agency called lower investments as the “main potential
growth dampener”. The pandemic is set to weigh on capital
expenditure for some years, feeding directly into a slower pace of
capital deepening, it said.
Fitch Ratings projects a 14 per cent drop in investment in FY21,
which would increase by 18 per cent in FY22 due to favourable base
effects and easing of the heath crisis. However, investment growth
is expected to slow to around 6 per cent a year in the subse-quent
years, it said.
Investment demand will be dragged down by the need to repair
balance sheets and shut-ting of firms. “Constrained credit supply
amid a fragile financial system is another headwind to
investment.”
Economy to suffer lasting damage from coronavirus crisis, says
Fitch Growth to slow to 6.5% a year over FY23 to FY26
SUBRATA PANDA,SANJAY KUMAR SINGH & ANUP ROY Mumbai/New
Delhi, 14 January
The Centre and state govern-ments, Reserve Bank of India (RBI),
big-tech firms and regu-lated digital lenders are coming together
to crack down on fraud Chinese lending apps operating in the
country with near impunity and wreaking havoc in the lives of
borrowers.
On Thursday, Google said in a blog post that working on
complaints by users and government agencies, it reviewed “hundreds
of personal loan apps in India”, and those that were found to
violate its user safety policies “were immediately removed from its
Play Store.”
“We have asked developers of the remaining identified apps to
demon-strate that they comply with local laws and regulations. Apps
that fail to do so will be removed without notice. We will continue
to assist the law enforcement agencies in their investigation of
this issue,” wrote Suzanne Frey, vice-presi-dent, product, Android
Security and Privacy. Google’s announcement came a day after the
RBI constituted a com-mittee to suggest ways to fight frauds and
unscrupulous digital lending prac-tices. Various states have also
started to clamp down on these lenders, common-ly kno wn as
“Chinese lending apps”. But it would be wrong to assume that only
Chinese nationals run these shady lend-ing practices. Scores of
Indians are involved, too.
A user just needs to download any app floated by such fraudsters
and apply for instant loans. These apps are mainly concentrated on
Google Play Store because of the reach and popu-larity of Android
systems. If an app is flagged, it simply vanishes from the Play
Store, only to be replaced by another one. But the underlying
com-panies remain intact, and these are not small setups.
The Hindu Business Line (HBL) reported on December 23 that the
Cyber Crime police of Hyderabad raided three
centres running such operations in Hyderabad, and two in
Gurugram. These firms employed more than 1,100 tele-callers taking
instructions, appar-ently from Chinese nationals operating from
Jakarta, Indonesia.
The police raided Liufang Technologies, Hotful Technologies,
Pinprint Technologies and Nabloom Technologies, all regis-tered in
Bengaluru. Their purpose was to “persuade, harass and intimi-date
loan defaulters at various stages”, Commissioner of Police Anjani
Kumar was quoted by the HBL in the story.
When the application is installed on the phone, it accesses
various aspects of the smartphone. The user has to give access to
the contact list, messages, and other vital information stored on
the phone. The loans are instantly given. The Chinese apps can
offer ~500 to ~50,000 at 100 per cent to 800 per cent interest
rates for tenures of sev-en days to six months.
If there is a delay in repay-ment, or default, the tele-callers
start harassing customers. There are persistent threats, not only
to the borrowers but to those on their contact lists as well,
especially family. If those tactics fail, recovery agents are sent.
The agents, usually goons masking as finance company employees,
rough up customers and snatch personal belong-ings.
According to a source in thick of fighting the menace, “apart
from very deep-pocketed foreign nationals, there are hundreds of
Indians involved. These companies don’t borrow from banks but use
their funds to lend. They are not registered with the RBI and don’t
main-tain accounts with a single bank. Most of the time, the
accounts where the money gets submitted is in the names of
relatives or shell companies.”
Besides, professional recovery agents' services have cropped up
all across the country. “They are goons on hire. They don’t work
for one company but go by the lists given to them. If they recover
the money, they earn fat com-
missions,” said the person. If foreign nationals are handling
the
operations, the money gets routed out of India through an
elaborate web of shell companies, including through companies
registered as infrastructure non-banking financial companies.
Hawala routes are also regularly used, informed the source.
Digital lenders have come together to form bodies such as
FinTech Association for Consumer Empowerment (FACE) and Digital
Lending Association of India (DLAI) to fight the Chinese lending
apps.
“During the pandemic, there was a flush of these lenders, having
their roots in Indonesia, or China. They came out with multiple
apps, which were being run by a group of 2-3 entities. Their
strat-egy was to not build a brand so that they remain unnoticed on
a larger scale. Since there was a demand for credit in the market,
which was largely unmet,
we saw such lending platforms mush-room,” said Madhusudan Ekam
baram, chief executive and co-founder of per-sonal loan platform
KreditBee.
According to Anil Pinapala, founder and chief executive of
Vivifi India Fin -ance, when a lender is operating from outside the
country, the enforcement actions have to be continuous. “There is a
sense of responsibility on Google also. They have their policies
and they have their mechanisms by which they try to regulate such
apps. But previously
they did not insist on making sure that lending apps have a
valid licence.
So, that was one of the deficien-cies that Google had,”
Pinapala said. Ranvir Singh, founder
and managing director of digital lending platform
Kissht, said there should be a framework on what per-
sonal information could be captured so that customer
information cannot be used unscrupulously.
“A lot of these com-panies have a track
record of doing similar things in Indonesia till the authorities
clamped down on them. And, now, they are doing a similar thing in
India. Most of them are operating out of China without being
physically present here,” Singh said.
It is difficult to close such operations altogether, experts
said. The best way to safeguard against these practices is more
education and self-awareness.
“At the time of taking the loan, ask yourself: Do I need this
loan? Can I afford to repay it? Understand the inter-est rate,
processing fee, and any other hidden charges that might be there.
Are those charges acceptable to you,” said Gaurav Chopra, founder
and chief exec-utive, IndiaLends, and executive mem-ber at
DLAI.
“Think before giving any permis-sions to these applications or
websites. Ask yourself: Why does the lender need these pieces of
information at all for lending to me,” Chopra said.
Govt teams up with RBI, e-lenders to crack down on fraud loan
appsGoogle says it has removed hundreds of personal-loan apps as
they violated user safety policies
ILLUSTRATION BY BINAY SINHA
20.0
10.0
0
-10.0
-20.04.20
6.60
FY20 FY26
INDIA REAL GDP PATHINDIA'S GDP PROJECTIONSAnnual change (%)
Source: Fitch Ratings’ estimates, Haver Analytics Source: Fitch
Ratings
230
180
130
80
302000 2025F
Pre-coronavirus crisisPost-coronavirus crisis
(~ trn in 2005 prices)
10.0
5.0
0
-5.0
CPI WPI
Jan Dec2020
4.597.59
3.52 1.22
IN SYNC (% YoY)
Source: Commerce & industry ministry, Mospi
Centre to track casual links to determine Covid vaccine
liabilitySOHINI DAS & VINAY UMARJI Mumbai/Ahmedabad, 14
January
As the inoculation drive begins around the country, the drug
regulator's office is likely to conduct rolling reviews of any
adverse event that may occur after a person has been vaccinated.
While the vaccine makers are unlikely to have any indem-nity from
the government in case of an adverse event, the Central Drugs
Standards Control Organisation (CDSCO) will investigate if there
are any causal links between the adverse event and the vaccine.
“If a causal link is estab-lished, then the liability is of the
manufacturer. The approval for the vaccines is according to the
provisions of the New Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules, 2019, which
comes under the Drugs and Cosmetics Act of 1940. In this act, there
is a provision of compensation to the subject in case there is any
serious adverse event in a trial sub-ject which is linked to the
investigational product," said a source close to the
develop-ment.
Covaxin, the vaccine can-didate from Bharat Biotech has been
approved in 'clinical trial mode'. This means that the New Drugs
and Clinical Trials Rules apply to the vac-cine. During a recent
press briefing, Krishna Ella, chair-man and managing director of
Bharat Biotech, had said the firm would take full responsibility of
trial partici-pants.
Balram Bhargava, direc-tor-general of the Indian Council of
Medical Research (ICMR), has also said that restricted use of
Covaxin in
clinical trial mode meant that beneficiaries will have to give
consent and there will be reg-ular follow up. Such persons will not
receive the placebo.
As for Serum Institute of India's Covishield approval, the drug
regulator has men-tioned in conditions to be met that the firm has
to sub-mit an India-specific risk management plan, and also submit
safety data on adverse events with due analysis every 15-days for
the first two months. Thereafter, the monthly submission of data on
adverse events is allowed.
A source, thus, clarified that serious adverse events will be
closely monitored as none of the vaccines has a full marketing
authorisation. "First, the vaccine maker has to submit data with
due analysis, and then the CDSCO expert group investigates and
analyses the data to see if there is any causal link," the
person said.
Meanwhile, state govern-ments, too, have been asked by the
Centre to oversee the vaccination drive and report the outcome to
the health ministry. Gujarat's state immunisation officer Dr. Nayan
Jani said they have been asked to monitor the vaccine recipients
for 28-days before administering the sec-ond booster dose. "Hence,
all reports will be sent to the ministry," he said.
The India situation is dif-ferent from countries like the US
where the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act was
invoked to give legal protec-tion to companies making or
distributing the vaccines unless there is 'willful mis-conduct' by
the company. Therefore, vaccine makers will not have to engage in
legal battles for compensa-tion unless 'willful miscon-duct' is
proven.
"India is unlikely to indemnify the vaccine mak-ers. It will
monitor the adverse events and according to the New Rules of 2019,
the vaccine maker has to submit periodic data. Only if a causal
link is established for any adverse event, the vaccine maker may be
held responsi-ble," said a senior medico-legal expert. He also said
that by making the act of vaccina-tion 'voluntary' the govern-ment
has also ensured that there is what we call 'implied consent' of
the person who is taking the vaccine.
Vaccine makers will have to also distribute literature along
with their vaccines educating everyone about known side
effects.
‘Covaxin safety established in phases 1 and 2’In a package
insert with Covaxin, Bharat Biotech has noted that the safety of
the vaccine was estab-lished in phase 1 and phase 2 studies. It
said that phase 1 clinical trials were conducted in India on 375
adults, and the most com-mon local adverse event noted was pain at
the site of injection. The other less common adverse events were
dizziness, giddiness, tremor, sweating, cold, cough, and injection
site swelling. It said that so far no vaccine-related adverse
events have been noted in the ongoing phase 3 study.
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