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Managing Exposures And Exchange Rate Fluctuations

7.international finance exposures

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Page 1: 7.international finance exposures

Managing Exposures

And Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Page 2: 7.international finance exposures

Our Road Map

Introduction & Overview

BOP

Fx Markets

Fx Quotes Parity Theories

Exchange Rate Determination &

Forecasting

Understanding Currency

Exposures & Risk

Managing currency risks

Raising Funds Abroad or in Fx Opportunities &

Risks

Managing the risks

Capital Budgeting

Summation

Page 3: 7.international finance exposures

Foreign Exchange Exposure

• A measure of the potential for a firm’s– Profitability– Net cash flow– Market value of assets and liabilitiesto change because of a change in exchange rates

• Objective to measure and manage these 3 parameters

Page 4: 7.international finance exposures

Cross Border Risks• Cross Border Activities are exposed to risks

– Political• Can affect short term as well as long term

– Sovereign• Government not honoring commitments , country credit risk

– Performance• Government not giving clearances or new unfavorable rules enforced

– Payment• Customer not paying , unable or unwilling or disputing

– Counter Party• One of the parties not honoring commitment

– Liquidity• Assets cannot be sold at market prices or in a timely manner

– Foreign Exchange or Currency Risk

Page 5: 7.international finance exposures

Foreign Exchange or Currency Risk Whom does it affect?

• Anyone with exposure to foreign currency– Exporters – Importers– Foreign Currency Borrowers /Lenders– Asset holders– Remittances to India– Remittances out of India– Others

Page 6: 7.international finance exposures

Why do exchange rates change ?• Demand and Supply• Interest Rates• Flows into and out of the country

• Trade Flows• Invisibles• Investments (inbound and outbound)• Borrowings/Lending

• Political & Other Factors– Stability– Policies– Outlook

• Speculation

Page 7: 7.international finance exposures

How do changing exchange rates affect

• A falling local currency– Increases cost of imports– Costlier servicing of

foreign debt– Exports become more

competitive– Investing outside India

becomes more expensive

• A rising local currency– Imports become cheaper– Cheaper servicing of

foreign debt– Exports become less

competitive– Investing outside India

becomes cheaper

Page 8: 7.international finance exposures

Objectives of Forex Risk Management

• Protect Realizations/Outflows

• Avoid or minimize negative surprises

• Bring in more predictability

• Capture opportunities

• Stay competitive

Page 9: 7.international finance exposures

Types of exposures

• Transaction Exposure– Measures changes in the value of the outstanding financial obligations

• Incurred or contracted before exchange rate change but not due to be settled till after the exchange rate change

– Sensitivity of domestic currency value of foreign currency denominated costs and revenues

• Economic Exposure – Also called operating, competitive or strategic exposure– Measures the change in PV of the firm resulting from changes in expected CF’s caused by

unexpected changes in exchange rates

• Translation Exposure– Also called accounting exposure– Potential for accounting derived changes in owner’s equity to occur because of the need to

“translate” foreign currency financial statements of foreign subsidiaries for consolidated financial statements

Currency Exposures do not always result in losses to the firm– Not due to firm’s true operations or core competence– But from timing associated with exchange rate changes and currency movements

Page 10: 7.international finance exposures

Comparison of the 3 exposuresMoment in time when exchange rate changes

Transaction Exposure Economic Exposure

Translation Exposure

Time

Page 11: 7.international finance exposures

Defining Hedging

• Value of the firm – NPV of all expected future cash flows

• One element of financial risk management – Exchange rate or Currency rate changes

• Currency Risk – Variance in expected cash flows arising from unexpected exchange rate changes

• Hedging – Taking of a position that will rise or fall to offset the fall or rise

of an existing position– Attempts to reduce risk , not add value or return– Hedging not “free”

Page 12: 7.international finance exposures

Arguments to hedge or not

• Shareholders are capable of diversifying currency risk better

• CRM does not increase the expected cash flow of the firm

• Hedging benefits managers rather than SH (agency problem)

• Managers cannot outguess market

• Improves planning capability of the firm

• Reduces risk of CF falling below a necessary minimum

• Management knows currency risk better

• Management is better aware of “disequilibrium” factors in market and can take advantage of the same through “selective hedging”

Page 13: 7.international finance exposures

Transaction Exposure

A more detailed look

Page 14: 7.international finance exposures

Transaction Exposure – How does it arise

• Purchasing or selling of goods where prices are stated in foreign currencies

• Borrowing or lending in foreign currencies• Being a party to an unperformed foreign

exchange forward contract• Acquiring assets or incurring liabilities

denominated in foreign currencies

Page 15: 7.international finance exposures

Basic question

• An Indian company has – payables of $ 10,000 for inputs due in one month, – receivables of € 10,000 due in two months. – The current exchange rate is Rs 43/ USD and Rs 55/ €. – The expected spot rate on the date of payment is Rs 44/ $, and Rs

56/ €

What is the cash outflow and inflow in rupees on the maturity date, if the actual spot rate on that day is identical to the expected spot rate. Is the transaction exposure favorable or unfavorable?

Page 16: 7.international finance exposures

A simple costing example

• I want to manufacture a product in India and sell to a customer in USA– I can produce 1 unit at Rs 1,50,000– I want a profit margin of Rs 15,000– I therefore need a selling price of Rs 1,65,000

• My customer is in USA and needs a price quoted in USD.– I therefore need to calculate my Rs 1,65,000 in USD and quote

to him.• What do I do: Divide Rs 1,65,000 by the $ exchange rate

of Rs 55 (on that date) and quote $3,000 to the customer• But, I want my money eventually converted back to INR

when I receive payment from him .

Page 17: 7.international finance exposures

What happens after that?• I now have an export order at $ 3,000 on hand , on

which I expect / target to get Rs 1,65,000• I need to Buy-Store-Process-Store-Ship-Collect• USD may not be Rs 55/ $ on the date of realization• If it goes to Rs 60/$, I gain

– Because I now get $3,000 *60 =Rs 1,80,000• If it goes to Rs 40/$,I lose

– Because I now get $3,000 *40 =Rs 1,20,000

Page 18: 7.international finance exposures

A typical transaction exposure

Seller quotes

Buyer orders

Seller ships

Buyer pays

Quotation Exposure Backlog Exposure Billing Exposure

Page 19: 7.international finance exposures

Borrowing and Lending - Example

• I borrow $ 1.0 Million from a US bank to buy some equipment in India with a repayment after 3 years

• On the day of receiving the $ , I give it to my bank and convert it into INR at 45.00/$ , I get Rs 45 Million

• I pay my supplier in India Rs 45 Million and get my equipment

• After 3 years ,USD/INR has moved to Rs 60.00• I now need Rs 60 Million to buy $ 1.000 Million and

repay my loan• Questions: Who runs a risk ?

Page 20: 7.international finance exposures

01/Jan/9

3

01/Jan/9

4

01/Jan/9

5

01/Jan/9

6

01/Jan/9

7

01/Jan/9

8

01/Jan/9

9

01/Jan/0

0

01/Jan/0

1

01/Jan/0

2

01/Jan/0

3

01/Jan/0

4

01/Jan/0

5

01/Jan/0

6

01/Jan/0

7

01/Jan/0

8

01/Jan/0

9

01/Jan/1

0

01/Jan/1

1

01/Jan/1

2

01/Jan/1

3 30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

65.00

70.00

USD/INR

Page 21: 7.international finance exposures

01/Jan/1

3

16/Jan/1

3

31/Jan/1

3

15/Feb/1

3

02/Mar/

13

17/Mar/

13

01/Apr/1

3

16/Apr/1

3

01/May

/13

16/May

/13

31/May

/13

15/Jun/1

3

30/Jun/1

3

15/Jul/1

3

30/Jul/1

3

14/Aug/1

3

29/Aug/1

3

13/Sep/1

3

28/Sep/1

3

13/Oct/

13 50.00

51.00

52.00

53.00

54.00

55.00

56.00

57.00

58.00

59.00

60.00

61.00

62.00

63.00

64.00

65.00

66.00

67.00

68.00

69.00

70.00

USD/INR

Page 22: 7.international finance exposures

What happens when

• RBI signals reduction in interest rates• US announces a likely curb on outsourcing• An EU country reports serious problems• China expected to grow faster• India announces reduced tax on equity gains• Key political ally withdraws support• Likely downgrade of US by Rating agencies

Page 23: 7.international finance exposures

Same Data , Different Analysis

CRISIL & BOA - Appreciation• Capital inflows will resume

because QE threat recedes and GOI promises reforms

• CAD softens and expected to fall to 4.5%

• However, there will be volatility in the path

• BOA ML feels GOI/RBI will try to defend Rs 60/$– Sees it peaking at 59-60– RBI will try for 54-58 if Euro

trades between 1.30 to 1.20

Std Chartered - Depreciation• Reform prospects are bleak and

investors likely to get jittery• NRI bonds likely to have only

short term impact• RBI unwilling to take on currency

risk on such bonds• Trade deficit direction looks +ve• Gold imports and improved

scenario in markets abroad• Need for much needed and

reforms in natural gas, FDI policy and insurance / pension reforms

Page 24: 7.international finance exposures

What do I do ?

56?61?

59

Page 25: 7.international finance exposures

Background

• In March 2007, the CFO of an Indian IT major stated that– ‘a 1% change in the rupee– dollar rate will have a fifty

basis point impact on the margins’– Impacts vary from company to company , directly or

indirectly • Companies cannot afford to

– sit on the sidelines and allow exchange rate volatility to ravage their bottom lines and balance sheets.

– they adopt a proactive approach and use a variety of methods.

• Hedge through contractual & non contractual methods– Requires the balancing of costs versus benefits

Page 26: 7.international finance exposures

Philosophy of Risk Management

Selective Hedging Speculate

All Risks Hedged

All Risks Open

Profi

t M

otive

Risk Appetite

Page 27: 7.international finance exposures

Managing Risk - Steps

Identify Risk

Quantify Risk

Set Risk Strategy

Hedging Strategy &

Alternatives

Review & Rebalance

ProbabilityImpactHedge or not ?Partial or fullyContractual or NCNatural hedgesCorporate philosophy

Page 28: 7.international finance exposures

Scenarios

• Sure of $/Rupee direction– Confident of upper/lower expected level– Not confident of upper/lower expected level

• Unsure of $/Rupee direction

• Known Exposure• Unknown Exposure

• The Dilemma : Should I cover or not?

Page 29: 7.international finance exposures

What should we do?

• Depends on individual business/contract characteristics

• Pricing models• Competitive pressures

– From within India– From outside India –where is your competition?

• Risk taking capacity/appetite• “Hindsight” factor !

Page 30: 7.international finance exposures

Techniques used

• Forwards or Futures• Money Market Hedge• Currency Option Hedge• Leading & Lagging• Cross Hedging• Choice of Currency• Currency Diversification• Nontraditional Hedging Techniques• Stay un-hedged

Page 31: 7.international finance exposures

Forward Covers

• A forward exchange contract is an agreement to exchange currencies at a future date at a pre-contracted exchange rate.

• We contract to buy or sell $ ( for example) at a particular rate at a particular time in future– Could be a fixed date or a period – Currency where we want to hedge

• Banks normally quote for up to 1 year forward• Forward rates may be higher or lower than the spot rate • Once booked , they are binding on us

Page 32: 7.international finance exposures

22 Oct 2013 Rs/USD @ 9.33.36 am

Bid (Exporter) Ask (Importer)

Spot 61.80 61.82

Oct 61.92 61.96

Nov 62.37 62.41

Dec 62.85 62.90

Jan 63.31 63.37

Feb 63.68 63.74

Mar 64.05 64.11

Apr 64.52 64.58

May 64.86 64.92

Jun 65.22 65.28

Jul 65.58 65.64

Aug 65.90 65.96

Sep 66.25 66.31

Page 33: 7.international finance exposures

Forward Covers– We lock in to a rate , for a future maturity date , for a

specified $ amount– Example

• Spot rate on 22 Oct 2013 = Rs 61.80/82• Forward premium till April 2014 = Rs 2.72/2.76• Assume Bank Charges = Rs0.03• Forward rate for April 2014 for an exporter

– 61.80+2.72-0.03 = 64.49• Forward rate for April 2014 for an importer

– 61.82+2.76+0.03 = 64.61– On April 30 2014 , whether spot is Rs 50.00 or Rs 70.00, an

exporter sells $ at Rs 64.49 and an importer buys $ at Rs 64.61– We can cover for a date

• (example :April 30th ) – We can cover for a period

• (example : April 1st to April 30th ) .

Page 34: 7.international finance exposures

Hedging of Forwards

• In most foreign exchange markets , the spot market is more liquid than forwards– Standard and non standard maturities

• Banks may face 2 risks till squaring off– A change in spot rate (bigger risk)– A change in forward margin (may be done later by

some banks sometimes)• Long term hedges• Non dollar quotes

Page 35: 7.international finance exposures

Advantages /Disadvantages of a cover

• We have a fixed rate for $ for the future date• Brings in predictability to the future earnings /

outflows• We lose potential gains above (exporter)/below

(importer) forward cover rates• You have to deliver on the date or cancel or

rollover– Risk of underlying transaction not happening /delayed

• Changes in RBI policies ? !

Page 36: 7.international finance exposures

Some other practical aspects

• Running account (past performance based) versus order based availment

• Branch or Treasury Desk• Level of automation at the bank/interface• Export Bill Discounting• Import Bill Acceptance• At sight and with credit• Discounting and collection basis• Through bank and documents in trust• Advance payments• EEFC account

Page 37: 7.international finance exposures

Forwards & Futures

Forwards• Flexible amount • Flexible maturity• OTC phone/fax/mail • Settlement or honoring

normally by delivery• Counter party risk may exist

Futures• Standard amount• Standard maturity• On exchanges ,same price• Settlement or honoring

normally by cash settlement• Counter party risk lower

due to MTM corrections

Page 38: 7.international finance exposures

Scenarios

• Sure of $/Rupee direction– Confident of upper/lower expected level– Not confident of upper/lower expected level

• Unsure of $/Rupee direction

• Known Exposure• Unknown Exposure

• The Dilemma : Should I cover or not?

Page 39: 7.international finance exposures

Money Market Hedge

• Transaction exposure can also be hedged by lending or borrowing in the domestic and foreign money markets– Lend to hedge ?– Borrow to hedge ?

• What have we achieved by doing so ?• What can be constraints to do so ?• What else do we need to consider ?• When will forwards be better than MMH ?

Page 40: 7.international finance exposures

Example of a money market hedge• I have a receivable of $1,000,000• Current spot rate : Rs 43• INR interest rate 9 % , US interest rate 3%• Step 1 : Borrow $ 970874 (1,000,000/1.03)• Step 2 : Convert $970874 into INR • Step 3: Receive Rs 41.748 Mio• Step 4: Invest 41.748 Mio @ 9 %• Step 5: Receive 45.505 Mio at maturity• Step 6 : Customer pays me $ 1.000 Mio receivable• Step 7 : Use that $1.000 Mio to repay Step 1 loan• Step 8: I now have 45.505 Mio rupees left with me

• WHAT FACTORS DO WE NEED TO CONSIDER TO CHOOSE THIS ?

Page 41: 7.international finance exposures

Indian Context

• Regular working capital borrowings• Export packing credit in INR• Pre shipment credit in Foreign Currency

(LIBOR based rates)• Export Bill Discounting

Page 42: 7.international finance exposures

Options – How is it different from a forward cover

• As the name suggests , it gives the buyer of the option , an option without an obligation

• On the future date, you can decide whether or not you want to use the option contract that you bought

• This is useful when you want to protect a rate but also feel that there is potential for further gain in the $/Rupee equation

Page 43: 7.international finance exposures

Parties to an option contract

• Writer or seller of the option : The party who has an obligation to buy/sell the asset underlying the contract ,at the agreed price and time , if the option is exercised by the buyer of the option

• Buyer of the option : The party who has the right but not the obligation to sell/buy the asset underlying the contract at the agreed price and time

Page 44: 7.international finance exposures

Types of options

• Call Option : The right , without the obligation, to buy an asset

• Put Option : The right , without the obligation, to sell an asset

• American Option : An option , which can be exercised at any time until the expiry date

• European Option : An option , which can be exercised only on expiry

• Bermudan Option : An option , which can be exercised only during a predefined portion of its life

Page 45: 7.international finance exposures

What do we do ?

BUY CALL

SELL CALL

BUY PUT

SELL PUT

CALL

PUT

BUY SELL

Page 46: 7.international finance exposures

Expiry

• Expiry : The last date on which the option may be exercised

• Expiration time : Specified in the contract . Current practice generally specifies it as 10am New York time or 3pm Tokyo time

Page 47: 7.international finance exposures

Exercise or Strike Price

• Exercise or Strike Price : The specified price at which the buyer of the contract can exercise his right to buy or sell the asset

• At-The-Money (ATM) : An option with a strike price equal to the current price of the asset. In currency terms , this can refer to the current spot rate (ATM spot) or the forward rate for the expiry date (ATM forward)

• In-The-Money (ITM) : The strike price is more favorable to the buyer than the current market rate. Premium will be higher than in ATM

• Out-Of The-Money (OTM) : The strike price is less favorable to the buyer than the current market rate. Premium will be lower than in ATM

Page 48: 7.international finance exposures

Value/Price of an option

• Option Premium : Fee or price paid by the buyer of the option to the seller of the option

• Value of an option : The market price of the option• Intrinsic Value : The difference between the strike

price and the current market exchange rate , in the case of an American style option it is profit available on immediate exercise.

• Time Value : The difference between option premium and intrinsic value reflecting the value arising from time left until its expiry

Page 49: 7.international finance exposures

How do options in Fx Work?– When an exporter buys a USD put option , he has

the right ,but no obligation to sell USD at the “strike” price

• For example , if he bought an option at a strike price of Rs 60 for April 2014, he can sell USD at 60 if the USD is below Rs 60 on due date

• If it is above Rs 60,he can ignore his option and sell in the market at a higher price

• His only cost is the option premium he paid

– Some people buy and sell options to reduce cost • can work better than forwards if understood well• but that can be very risky if done without knowledge!

Page 50: 7.international finance exposures

Simple Option - example

• I want to protect an expected outflow of $ 1 Million using an option

• Data as on date– Spot price Rs 60.00– Forward Rate after 6 months 62.00– Strike rate requested for 62.00– Option premium (price) quoted by bank 1.00

• Let’s discuss these #’s first

Page 51: 7.international finance exposures

I now own an option

• I have spent Rs 1.00 *$ 1 Mio = Rs 1.000 Mio• I have the right to buy USD 1 Mio at Rs 62.00• What happens after 6 months

– If USD is > 62.00 , I will exercise my option– If USD is <62.00 , I will ignore my option (let it

lapse) (I will not exercise it)• How is this different from a forward cover ?

Page 52: 7.international finance exposures

Payoffs Call Option

56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Option Fwd Cover -

Page 53: 7.international finance exposures

Payoffs Put Option

56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Option Fwd Cover -

Page 54: 7.international finance exposures

Leading & Lagging

• Operational technique to reduce transaction exposure• Lead – pay or collect early• Lag – pay or collect late• Which will we lead and which will we lag ?• A word of caution

– why will counter party want to do so ?– will it affect business model or relations ?– Original invoice price already made assumptions

• Can be used effectively between “related” parties

Page 55: 7.international finance exposures

Cross Hedging

• Method used when the currency in question cannot be hedged directly or cost effectively

• Also called a proxy hedge because the currency chosen for hedging serves as a proxy for target currency

• What will the effectiveness of this depend on?• What are the risks ?

Page 56: 7.international finance exposures

Currency Diversification

• Can limit the impact of a single currency movement

• MNC’s may have this advantage being in different countries

• How could smaller companies manage this ?• What basic characteristic is required between

currencies for this strategy to be effective as a hedge ?

Page 57: 7.international finance exposures

Choice of currency

• Choosing which currency you would like your billing in ?

• Scope may be limited especially where you do not call the shots in the relationship

Page 58: 7.international finance exposures

Scenarios & what would you prefer

• Basic Data – Spot 61.80/82– March Forwards 64.05/11

• Your views as of now about March likelihood– Confident it will go above 65.00– Confident it will stay steady at around 62.00– Confident it will go below 60.00– Confident Re will depreciate but not sure (63-70)– Not sure of direction (55-68)

Page 59: 7.international finance exposures

Payoffs Call Option

56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Option Fwd Cover -

Page 60: 7.international finance exposures

Variations of simple options

• Achieved through combining more than one option ,usually buying and selling options

• Motives could be to :– Reduce or eliminate option premium– Achieve a different target range

• Involve giving up “potential gains “ to achieve “savings in up front costs”

Page 61: 7.international finance exposures

Payoff of the range forward option

45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 5746.5

4747.5

4848.5

4949.5

5050.5

5151.5

Eff Rate

Eff Rate

Page 62: 7.international finance exposures

Range Forward

• Also called a tunnel option• Example:

– We want to hedge a $100 payable• Buy a call option @ 51.00 strike price : pay a premium of

Rs 0.70 p• Sell a put option @ 48.00 strike price : receive same

premium of Rs 0.70 p

– On expiry• If spot is 53.00 , we exercise at 51.00• If spot is less than 48.00 , buyer of option exercises at

48.00

Page 63: 7.international finance exposures

Ratio Range Forward

• If end user wants a better rate for the bought option – say 49.00 instead of 51.00 in earlier example

• He will have to give up something– Either pay a higher premium

• (1.55 vs 0.70 earlier example) OR

– He will need to sell more options • 3.1 puts at 47.00 vs 1 put at 48.00 earlier example

• Now , let’s look at payoffs

Page 64: 7.international finance exposures

What happens at expiry

• If spot rate is above 49.00 , call purchased will be exercised

• Between 47 & 49 , neither will be exercised• If spot is below 47.00 , (say 46) , put of 310$ will

be exercised by counter party• We need only $100 so we will have to sell $210

at spot rate (46.00) and receive 9660• Effective cost 49.10 (310*47 -9660)= 4910• 4910/100 =49.10

Page 65: 7.international finance exposures

Payoff of the ratio range forward

45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 44.00

45.00

46.00

47.00

48.00

49.00

50.00

51.00

52.00

Eff Rate

Eff Rate

Page 66: 7.international finance exposures

Payoff of the participating forward

45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 47.00

47.50

48.00

48.50

49.00

49.50

50.00

50.50

33% participation

Page 67: 7.international finance exposures

Participating Forward

• Combination of forward contract and option– Forward rate on that day 49.38– Price of 50 put 1.87– Gap of 62 p used to buy a put option for 1/3rd of the contract

• If spot on expiry is 46 , put option will be exercised with a profit of Rs 4– Gain 4*1/3 =1.33– Our effective cost of buying $ = 48.67

• Larger the participation required, greater will be the rate !

Page 68: 7.international finance exposures

Payoff of the seagull

46 47 48 49 50 51 52

(1.20)

(1.00)

(0.80)

(0.60)

(0.40)

(0.20)

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

Page 69: 7.international finance exposures

Seagull Option

• A zero cost structure but more complicated than simple range forward– Buy call @ 50.00 (1.40 outflow)– Sell put @ 47.00(0.50 inflow)– Sell call @ 50.70 (0.90 inflow)

• If spot 50-50.70 , call option we bought will be exercised but not the call sold

• If spot > 50.70, both calls will be exercised and payoff stabilizes at 0.70p – Actual cost = (spot-0.70)

• Gets its name from payoff graph

Page 70: 7.international finance exposures

Choices & Considerations

• Forward contracts versus Money Market• Forward contracts versus Options• Forward contracts versus not hedging• Options versus not hedging• Options versus money markets• What do we do when there are timing

mismatches• What do we do when there is uncertainty

regarding timing of inflows and outflows

Page 71: 7.international finance exposures

Economic Exposure

• Also called operating exposure, competitive exposure and sometimes strategic exposure

• Measures any change in the PV of the firm resulting from changes in future operating CF caused by any unexpected changes in exchange rates

• Goal is to identify strategies or techniques that will enhance value in the face of unexpected exchange rate changes

Page 72: 7.international finance exposures

Economic / Operating Exposure

• Depends on– Change in nominal exchange rate– Change in the selling price (output price)– Change in the quantity of output sold– Change in operating costs (quantities & input price)

• Impact of real exchange rates• Combination of 2 effects

– Conversion Effect– Competitive Effect

Page 73: 7.international finance exposures

Factors that influence

• Geographical extent of market• Who are the dominant players• Market power & demand elasticity• Impact on input prices• Currency composition of operating costs

Page 74: 7.international finance exposures

Attributes of Economic Exposure

• Requires forecasting and analyzing firm’s – future individual transaction exposures – future exposures of competitors ,present and

likely• Analysis of longer term than transaction

exposure– Transaction exposures– Anticipated transaction exposures– Longer term exposures

Page 75: 7.international finance exposures

Operating & Financial Cash Flows

• Operating cash flows arise from – Intercompany & Intra-company receivables &

payables , rent , royalties, license fees , management fees

• Financial cash flows arise from– Payments for loans

• Principal & Interest

– Equity related• Equity investments & Dividends

Page 76: 7.international finance exposures

Expected versus Unexpected changes in Cash Flow

• Economic Exposure is far more important for long term health of the business

• Subjective - estimation over long time horizon• Not from accounting process –total

management responsibility – all functions• Only unexpected changes should cause

changes --- why ?• Macroeconomic uncertainty

Page 77: 7.international finance exposures

Strategic management of Economic exposure

• Objective of transaction & economic exposure management– Anticipate and influence the effect of unexpected

changes in exchange rates on a firm’s future cash flows

• To meet this objective, firms can – Diversify the firm’s operating base– Diversify the firm’s financing base– Change the firm’s operating and financial policies

Page 78: 7.international finance exposures

Proactive management of economic exposure

• Matching currency cash flows• Risk sharing agreements• Back to back or parallel loans• Currency Swaps• Leads & Lags• Reinvoicing Centres• Contractual approaches

Page 79: 7.international finance exposures

How is it different from transaction exposure

• Transaction exposure – exchange rate risk on converting inflows or outflows

• Economic exposure– any impact of exchange rate fluctuations on a

firm’s cash flow– More far reaching and encompassing than

transaction exposure– May need strategic moves and changes

Page 80: 7.international finance exposures

STEPS IN MANAGING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE

• 1. Estimation of planning horizon • 2. Determination of expected future spot rate. • 3. Estimation of expected revenue and cost streams, given the

expected spot rate. • 4. Estimation of effect on revenue and expense streams for unexpected

exchange rate changes. • 5. Choice of appropriate currency for debt denomination. • 6. Estimation of necessary amount of foreign currency debt. • 7. Determination of average interest period of debt. • 8. Selection debt denomination. • 9. Decision on trade-off from exposure in markets where rates are

distorted by controls. • 10. Decision about "residual" risk: business strategy.

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Possible strategies to hedge economic exposure

• Pricing • Import or Export strategy• Relocation or Multi Location• Financing • Closure or Hiving Off• Long Term Hedging

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Translation Exposure

Some aspects and methods

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Translation Exposure

• Also called accounting exposure• Arises because financial statements of foreign

subsidiaries must be restated to parent’s reporting currency

• Potential for an increase/decrease in parent’s net worth due to exchange rate changes

• Also used to evaluate subsidiary performance

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Overview of translation

• Foreign currency financial statements restated• Different exchange rates for different line items

– Historic & Current• Methods differ based on

– Level of independence• Integrated foreign entity• Self sustaining foreign entity

– Which currency is most important for subsidiary• Dominant currency day to day

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Corporate Risk Management System

• Issues to be addressed– Strategic business posture– Attitude towards risk– Risk tolerance– Organizational design– Monitoring & Control mechanisms– Performance evaluation– Conflicts of interest and resolution mechanisms