13
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

67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! "!

#$%&!'()!%*+!,-$!./*,(*0(*1!2(*%*3(%)!.4(5(5!

67!8%()!9:!;<$4=$41>!2.?@>!A???!

!"#$%&'$()

B$1%4+)$55!/C!D-%,!1/<$4*E$*,5!,$))!05>!,-$!C(*%*3(%)!34(5(5!(5!*/,!/<$4:!;-$!)$<$)(*1!/C!/()!F4/+03,(/*!-%5!=$$*!%!E%G/4!3/*,4(=0,/4!,/!,-$!4$3$*,!C(*%*3(%)!34(5(5:!8/(*1!C/4D%4+>!D$!3%*!$HF$3,!E/4$!+(540F,(/*>!5(*3$!/()!50FF)7>!*$,!/C!,-$!$*$417!05$+!(*!F4/+03,(/*>!(5!%)4$%+7!3/*,4%3,(*1:!!

'*$!/C!,-$!=(1!(550$5!(5!,-%,!,-$!5(I$!/C!,-$!$3/*/E7!D())!%)E/5,!3$4,%(*)7!3/*,4%3,>!%5!/()!%*+!/,-$4!4$5/043$5!3/*,4%3,:!;-(5!-%5!F4/C/0*+!(EF%3,5:!J$=,!=$3/E$5!E03-!E/4$!+(CC(30),!,/!4$F%7!(*!%!+$3)(*(*1!$3/*/E7:!;-(5!3%05$5!C(*%*3(%)!(*5,(,0,(/*5!(*3)0+(*1!=%*&5>!(*504%*3$!3/EF%*($5>!%*+!F$*5(/*!C0*+5!,/!-%<$!C(*%*3(%)!F4/=)$E5:!

8/<$4*E$*,!$*,(,)$E$*,!F4/14%E5>!%5!C/4!,-$!%1(*1>!%)5/!=$3/E$!E03-!E/4$!+(CC(30),!,/!C0*+:!8/<$4*E$*,5>!=$3%05$!/C!=/,-!+$=,!F4/=)$E5!%*+!F4/=)$E5!D(,-!$*,(,)$E$*,!F4/14%E5>!3%*!=$!$HF$3,$+!,/!-%<$!(*34$%5(*1!C(*%*3(%)!F4/=)$E5>!D(,-!5/E$!+$C%0),(*1:!

J$=,!-%5!4%EF$+!0F!14$%,)7!5(*3$!"KLM:!;-(5!14/D,-!(*!+$=,!-%5!-$)F$+!=//5,!5F$*+(*1!%*+!+$E%*+:!60,!D(,-!E/4$!+$=,!+$C%0),5>!D$!3%*!$HF$3,!,-$!4$<$45$!/C!,-(5N!%!-01$!+$3)(*$!(*!+$=,>!)$%+(*1!,/!4$+03$+!5F$*+(*1!%*+!4$+03$+!+$E%*+:!

8/(*1!C/4D%4+>!(,!(5!O0(,$!F/55(=)$!D$!D())!$*3/0*,$4!%!53$*%4(/!*/,!,//!+(CC$4$*,!C4/E!5/E$!/C!,-$!E/4$!%+<$45$!53$*%4(/5!/C!,-$!PQ(E(,5!,/!84/D,-R!%*%)75(5!/C!,-$!"KLM5:!8/<$4*E$*,%)!%*+!/,-$4!+$C%0),5!E%7!)$%+!,/!4$+03$+!(*,$4*%,(/*%)!,4%+$:!;-$!=$*$C(,5!/C!1)/=%)(I%,(/*!E%7!$<$*,0%))7!=$!)/5,>!(*3)0+(*1!,-$!%=()(,7!,/!E%&$!-(1-!,$3-!1//+5:!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

Page 2: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! S!

#$%&!'()!%*+!,-$!./*,(*0(*1!2(*%*3(%)!.4(5(5!

67!8%()!9:!;<$4=$41>!2.?@>!A???!

'3,/=$4!S">!SM"M!

;/+%7>!T!D/0)+!)(&$!,/!,%)&!,/!7/0!%=/0,!,-$!3/**$3,(/*!=$,D$$*!F$%&!/()!%*+!,-$!C(*%*3(%)!34(5(5U/4!4$%))7!,-$!3/*,(*0(*1!C(*%*3(%)!34(5(5:!

!"#$%&'(")*+,-.,,)*/&".')0*%)1*2,34')')0*53")"#6*

V$!%4$!-$%4(*1!C4/E!/04!1/<$4*E$*,5!,-%,!,-$!4$3$55(/*!(5!/<$4:!60,!T!,-(*&!D-%,!(5!-%FF$*(*1!(5!%!<$47!E%G/4!3-%*1$>!%5!D$!5-(C,!C4/E!%!14/D,-!$3/*/E7!,/!%!+$3)(*(*1!$3/*/E7:!!V$!3%*!$*<(5(/*!%!14/D,-!$3/*/E7!%5!%!5$4($5!/C!)%41$4!%*+!)%41$4!+(5&5>!D(,-!$%3-!+(5&!4$F4$5$*,(*1!,-$!%E/0*,!/C!1//+5!%*+!5$4<(3$5!,-%,!3%*!=$!E%+$!D(,-!,-$!4$5/043$5!%<%()%=)$!%,!%!1(<$*!F/(*,!%*+!,(E$:!

!

!"#$%&'(')'*&+%&,&-./."0-'01'/'2%03"-#'450-067'

?5!,-$!$3/*/E7!14/D5!(*!4$%)!,$4E5>!5/!+/$5!,-$!%E/0*,!/C!1//+5!%*+!5$4<(3$5!%<%()%=)$!C/4!$%3-!F$45/*:!V$!%))!-%<$!,/!5-%4$!(*!,-$!/0,F0,!%,!%!1(<$*!F/(*,!(*!,(E$>!=0,!%5!)/*1!%5!(,!(5!14/D(*1>!(,!(5!C%(4)7!$%57!,/!-%<$!$*/01-!C/4!$<$47/*$UD/4&$45>!4$,(4$$5>!5,/3&-/)+$45>!=/*+-/)+$45>!%*+!,-/5$!F)%**(*1!,/!(*<$5,!(*!*$D!$*$417!(*C4%5,403,04$>!,/!*%E$!%!C$D:!

!

!"#$%&'8')'*&+%&,&-./."0-'01'/'9&5:"-"-#'450-067'

Page 3: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! W!

!60,!1/(*1!C/4D%4+>!D$!&*/D!,-%,!,-$!%E/0*,!/C!/()!(5!)(&$)7!,/!=$!+$3)(*(*1:!T*!C%3,>!(C!D$!,-(*&!/C!/()!/*!%!*$,!=%5(5U*$,!/C!,-$!/()!05$+!,/!F4/+03$!%*+!+(5,4(=0,$!,-$!/()>!,-$!O0%*,(,7!/C!/()!%<%()%=)$!(5!F4/=%=)7!%)4$%+7!+$3)(*(*1>!5(*3$!,-$!,/,%)!%E/0*,!/C!/()!F4/+03$+!$%3-!7$%4!-%5!=$$*!C)%,!5(*3$!SMMX>!%*+!,-$!%E/0*,!/C!/()!4$O0(4$+!C/4!$H,4%3,(/*!/C!/()!)(&$)7!-%5!=$$*!(*34$%5(*1>!%5!/()!C4/E!E/4$!+(CC(30),!)/3%,(/*5!(5!%33$55$+:!'

?5!,-$!*$,!%E/0*,!/C!/()!,-%,!(5!F4/+03$+!$%3-!7$%4!+$34$%5$5>!,-$!%E/0*,!/C!1//+5!%*+!5$4<(3$5!,-%,!D$!3%*!F4/+03$!D(,-!,-%,!/()!(5!)(&$)7!,/!+$3)(*$!%5!D$))>!%),-/01-!F$4-%F5!*/,!%,!$H%3,)7!,-$!5%E$!4%,$!%5!,-$!/()!+$3)(*$:!@/E$-/D>!%))!/C!,-/5$!*$$+(*1!1//+5!%*+!5$4<(3$5!D())!*$$+!,/!5-%4$!(*!D-%,$<$4!5(I$!3(43)$!(5!%<%()%=)$!%,!%!1(<$*!F/(*,!(*!,(E$:!!

78,&8',.*"9*:&,(,)-%-'")*

V-$4$!+/$5!%!+$3)(*(*1!/()!50FF)7!)$%+!05Y!T!5$$!5$<$4%)!(EF)(3%,(/*5N!

": '()!5-/4,%1$5!)$%+!,/!!"#$#%&"!+$3)(*$!Z!D-%,!D$!,-(*&!/C!%5!4$3$55(/*!

S: 93/*/E(3!+$3)(*$!)$%+5!,/!'#()!/C!+$=,!+$C%0),5!

W: *#()!/C!+$=,!+$C%0),5!)$%+5!,/!%!(+#,-'!.!C(*%*3(%)!575,$E!

[: 8/<$4*E$*,5!%4$!%)5/!)(&$)7!,/!1$,!(*,/!C(*%*3(%)!+(CC(30),7>!%*+!5/E$!E%7!+$C%0),!/*!,-$(4!+$=,5!

X: ?!E%G/4!P"+!.&(/,$0&$.R!(5!)(&$)7!(5!%-$%+:!J$=,!D())!=$3/E$!)$55!3/EE/*:!

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

TC!T!-%<$!,(E$!%,!,-$!$*+>!T!D())!5-/D!%!C$D!E/4$!5)(+$5!4$1%4+(*1!D-%,!-%FF$*$+!4$3$*,)7:!

;".*7'4*<="&-%0,(*>,%1*-"*53")"#'3*2,34'),*

2(45,>!)$,]5!,%)&!%=/0,!-/D!#&'!)3#+(14!)/'!1./(#/!"#$#%&"/.!"'&$!:!!TC!,-$4$!(5!%!5-/4,%1$!/C!/()>!,-$!F4(3$!/C!/()!E%7!(*34$%5$>!%5!(,!+(+!/<$4!,-$!F$4(/+!SMMW!,/!SMM^:!?*+!$<$*!*/D>!/()!(5!%,!%!-(1-!F4(3$>!3/EF%4$+!,/!D-%,!(,!D%5!F4(/4!,/!SMM^:!

;-$!F4/=)$E!D-$*!/()!F4(3$5!(*34$%5$!(5!,-%,!O0(,$!C$D!F4(3$5!,$*+!,/!(*34$%5$!%,!,-$!5%E$!,(E$:!2/4!$H%EF)$N!C//+>!1%5/)(*$!/4!+($5$)>!%*+!-/E$!-$%,(*1!/():!;-$!3/5,!/C!/,-$4!C0$)5!E%7!(*34$%5$>!,//>!%5!,-$7!+(+!(*!SMM^>!%*+!,-$!3/5,!/C!E$,%)5!E%7!(*34$%5$:!;-$!F4/=)$E!(5!,-%,!$<$*!,-/01-!%))!,-$5$!F4(3$5!%4$!4(5(*1>!F$/F)$]5!5%)%4($5!%4$!*/,!4(5(*1!*$%4)7!%5!E03-:!

Page 4: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! [!

2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!C/4!3/EE0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!F$/F)$!D())!30,!=%3&!/*!+(534$,(/*%47!5F$*+(*1U,-(*15!)(&$!1/(*1!/0,!,/!4$5,%04%*,5>!/4!,%&(*1!<%3%,(/*5>!5/!,-%,!,-$7!-%<$!$*/01-!C0*+5!,/!3/<$4!,-$(4!=%5(3!*$$+5:!;-$7!E%7!C/4$1/!=07(*1!%!*$D!3%4>!/4!%!*$D!=(11$4!C%*3($4!-/05$:!;-(5!)%3&!/C!5F$*+(*1!,$*+5!,/!3%05$!4$3$55(/*>!%*+!F$/F)$!1$,!)%(+!/CC!C4/E!D/4&>!=$3%05$!F$/F)$!%4$!*/,!=07(*1!%5!E%*7!+(534$,(/*%47!1//+5:!!T,!%)5/!,$*+5!,/!3%05$!%!.!"'&$!!(*!-/05(*1!F4(3$5:!

;-$!$H,$*,!,/!D-(3-!/()!F4(3$5!*$$+!,/!4(5$!,/!3%05$!4$3$55(/*!D())!<%47!+$F$*+(*1!-/D!E03-!/()!%!3/0*,47!05$5:!?!3/0*,47!)(&$!.-(*%!,-%,!05$5!)(,,)$!/()>!E%7!*/,!-%<$!+(CC(30),7!D(,-!4$3$55(/*!0*,()!,-$!F4(3$!(5!O0(,$!-(1-:!60,!(*!,-$!_@>!D-$4$!D$!05$!%!)/,!/C!/()>!%*%)75(5!=7!J%<$!A04F-7!/C!;-$!'()!J40E!5,%CC!5011$5,5!,-%,!%*!/()!F4(3$!/C!`^M!/4!`^X!=%44$)!(*!,/+%7]5!+/))%45!(5!%))!,-%,!(5!4$O0(4$+!,/!3%05$!4$3$55(/*:"!

@/E$!F$/F)$!=$)($<$!,-%,!$CC(3($*37!(EF4/<$E$*,5!E%7!=$!50CC(3($*,!,/!/CC5$,!%!+$3)(*$!(*!/()!50FF)7:!T!O0$5,(/*!D-$,-$4!,-(5!D())!-%FF$*:!V$!-%<$!%!-01$!*0E=$4!/C!3%45!%*+!,403&5!%*+!E03-!E%3-(*$47!,-%,!(5!%)4$%+7!(*!05$:!TC!D$!%4$!(*!%!4$3$55(/*>!D$!D())!4$F)%3$!4$)%,(<$)7!C$D!/C!,-$5$!$%3-!7$%4>!5/!(,!D())!=$!+(CC(30),!,/!E%&$!E03-!F4/14$55!(*!,$4E5!/C!$CC(3($*37:!

?=6*53")"#'3*2,34'),*!%@(,(*>"-(*"9*2,9%@4-(*

!

!"#$%&'=')'><7'%&+/7"-#':0/-,'",'&/,"&%'"-'/'#%03"-#'&50-067'

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"!J%<(+!A04F-7>!P204,-$4!9<(+$*3$!/C!,-$!T*C)0$*3$!/C!9*$417!/*!,-$!_:!@:!93/*/E7R>!?<&'@":'9%$6>!"\!?F4()!SMMK>!-,,FNaa*$,$*$417:,-$/()+40E:3/Ea*/+$aXWM[!

Page 5: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! X!

b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

.)$%4)7!(C!%*!$3/*/E7!(5!5-4(*&(*1>!,-(5!5%E$!F4(*3(F)$!-/)+5!D(,-!1/<$4*E$*,cC0*+$+!F$*5(/*5!C/4!,-$!$)+$4)7:!V-$*!,-$!5(I$!/C!,-$!F($!D%5!14/D(*1>!(,!E%7!-%<$!)//&$+!)(&$!,-$4$!D/0)+!=$!F)$*,7!/C!E/*$7!,/!C0*+!C0,04$!F4/E(5$5>!=0,!/*3$!,-$!F($!5,%4,$+!5-4(*&(*1>!,-$*!(,!=$3%E$!E03-!-%4+$4!,/!-%<$!$*/01-!C0*+5!,/!1/!%4/0*+:!

A=')B')0*CD"@-*-=,*53")"#6*')*/,),&%4*

?5!)/*1!%5!,-$4$!(5!%!4+#0&$4/!"#$#%6>!%!-01$!*0E=$4!/C!,-(*15!5$$E!,/!1/!D$))N!

• #4/F$4,7!<%)0$5!4(5$>!5(*3$!,-$4$!(5!+$E%*+!C/4!E/4$!-/E$5!%*+!=05(*$55$5!

• Q%7/CC5!%4$!4$)%,(<$)7!4%4$!

• 605(*$55!E%41(*5!%4$!1//+!

• 8/<$4*E$*,!4$<$*0$!(5!0F!

• 9%57!,/!(EF)$E$*,!$CC(3($*37!(EF4/<$E$*,5!Z!F%7!C/4!*$D!)%=/4c5%<(*1!E%3-(*$5>!/4!E/4$!$*$417!$CC(3($*,!3%45!

• 9%57!,/!=/44/D!E/*$7!C/4!3%F(,%)!

• @,/3&!E%4&$,!,$*+5!,/!4(5$!Z!$%57!,/!C0*+!4$,(4$E$*,!F)%*5!

• ;-$!C0*+5!F$/F)$!-%<$!%<%()%=)$!,/!5F$*+!%4$!&$"+!1)!./1-#7!!G05,!D-%,!,-$(4!5%)%4($5!(*+(3%,$!=$3%05$!/C!5$<$4%)!5/043$5!/C!C0*+5N!!

o T*34$%5$+!+$=,!dC/4!$H%EF)$>!%!F$45/*!3%*!=07!%!3%4!$<$*!D(,-/0,!5%<(*15e!!!

o B(5(*1!5,/3&!E%4&$,!d+/*],!*$$+!,/!5%<$!E03-!C/4!4$,(4$E$*,>!5/!3%*!5F$*+!E/*$7!$)5$D-$4$e!

o B(5(*1!-/E$!F4(3$5!d4$C(*%*3$!%*+!F0))!/0,!,-$!$O0(,7e!

;-$!3%,3-!(5!,-%,!D(,-!%!.!"'&$&$4/!"#$#%6>!F4$,,7!E03-!$<$47,-(*1!,-%,!D$*,!D$))!=$C/4$>!*/D!1/$5!=%+)7N!

• #4/F$4,7!<%)0$5!C%))>!5(*3$!,-$4$!(5!)$55!+$E%*+!C/4!-/E$5!%*+!=05(*$55$5!

• Q%7/CC5!%4$!3/EE/*!

Page 6: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! \!

• 605(*$55!E%41(*!%4$!)/D!

• A03-!E/4$!+(CC(30),!,/!(EF)$E$*,!$*$417!(EF4/<$E$*,5!Z!(C!,-$4$!(5!*/!*$$+!,/!%++!*$D!$O0(FE$*,>!D-7!5F$*+!%!)/,!/C!E/*$7!/*!*$D!&11"5"&-.!$O0(FE$*,Y!!

• f%4+!,/!=/44/D!E/*$7!C/4!3%F(,%)!

• @,/3&!E%4&$,!,$*+5!,/!+$3)(*$!

• ;-$!C0*+5!F$/F)$!-%<$!%<%()%=)$!,/!5F$*+!%4$!.!"+!1)!./-!'#0!D-%,!,-$(4!5%)%4($5!(*+(3%,$+!=$3%05$!/C!

o J$34$%5$+!+$=,!dC/4!$H%EF)$>!34$+(,!3%4+!3/EF%*7!D/*],!%))/D!%*7!*$D!34$+(,>!=0,!$HF$3,5!7/0!,/!F%7/CC!/)+!=%)%*3$e!

o J$3)(*(*1!5,/3&!E%4&$,!!

o J$3)(*(*1!-/E$!F4(3$5!

?=6*>"-(*"9*2,9%@4-(*>,%1*-"*C44*E')%)3'%4*F)(-'-@-'")(*+,')0*')*A&"@D4,*

;-$!F4/=)$E!(5!,-%,!C(*%*3(%)!(*5,(,0,(/*5cD-$,-$4!=%*&5!/4!(*504%*3$!3/EF%*($5>!/4!F$*5(/*!F)%*5U%4$!*/,!5$,!0F!C/4!)/,5!/C!+$C%0),5:!;-$(4!$O0(,7!(5!O0(3&)7!$4/+$+:!;-$!1/<$4*E$*,!3%*!,47!,/!3/<$4!0F!,-$!5(,0%,(/*!C/4!%!D-()$U%5!,-$7!-%<$!=$$*!+/(*1!4$3$*,)7U=0,!$<$*,0%))7!,-$!,40,-!D())!3/E$!/0,:!

V-()$!,-$4$!%4$!<%4(/05!,7F$5!/C!(*504%*3$!F4/14%E5!5$,!0F!,/!-%*+)$!=%*&40F,3($5!/C!C(*%*3(%)!(*5,(,0,(/*5>!,-$7!%4$!*/,!5$,!0F!,/!-%*+)$!%!5(,0%,(/*!D-$4$!F4/=)$E5!%4$!D(+$5F4$%+:!;-$!%550EF,(/*!,-%,!(5!%)D%75!E%+$!(*!C0*+(*1!,-$5$!F4/14%E5!,-%,!=%*&40F,37!(5!%!<$47!4%4$!(*+$F$*+$*,!$<$*,:!

A=,*2,D-*:&"D4,#*'(*5((,)-'%446*G)9'H%D4,*')*%*2,34')')0*53")"#6*

;-$!F4/=)$E!(5!,-%,!)/%*!+$C%0),5!D())!%)D%75!=$!<$47!-(1-!(*!%!+$3)(*(*1!$3/*/E7>!=$3%05$!E%*7!F$/F)$!D())!=$!0*$EF)/7$+>!%*+!*/,!=$!%=)$!,/!4$F%7!,-$(4!)/%*5>!%*+!=$3%05$!=05(*$55!4$<$*0$!D())!,$*+!,/!+$3)(*$:!;-$4$!(5!%!D%7!/C!=0()+(*1!,-$5$!3/5,5!(*,/!,-$!(*,$4$5,!4%,$5!,-4/01-!D-%,!%4$!3%))$+!P(*504%*3$!3-%41$5R>!=0,!,-$*!,-$!(*,$4$5,!4%,$5!D())!=$!<$47!-(1->!5/!C$D!3%*!%CC/4+!,-$E:!

Q/*1!,$4E>!T!$HF$3,!E%*7!C$D$4!)/%*5!D())!=$!E%+$:!;-$!E%G/4(,7!/C!,-$!)/%*5!,-%,!%4$!(550$+!D())!=$!C/4!<$47!5-/4,!,$4E5UC/4!$H%EF)$>!%!)/%*!,/!3/<$4!1//+5!,-%,!-%<$!=$$*!5-(FF$+>!=0,!C/4!D-(3-!F%7E$*,!(5!*/,!$HF$3,$+!C/4!WM!+%75:!9<$*!E/4,1%1$5!E%7!=$!-%4+!,/!1$,:!

/"8,&)#,)-(*%&,*+,3"#')0*E')%)3'%446*A&"@D4,1I*A""*

V$!%4$!5$$(*1!,-(5!(*!%!*0E=$4!/C!904/F$%*!3/0*,4($5!*/D>!(*3)0+(*1!@F%(*:!!V-()$!,-$!0*+$4)7(*1!4$%5/*!(5!/()!5-/4,%1$5!,-%,!C)/D!,-4/01-!,-$!$3/*/E7!(*!D%75!D$!+(53055$+!$%4)($4>!%*+!,-$5$!/()!5-/4,%1$5!3%05$!4$3$55(/*!%*+!+$=,!+$C%0),5>!,-$!D%7!

Page 7: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! L!

,-(5!5-/D5!(,5$)C!(*!1/<$4*E$*,!C(*%*3$5!(5!(*!=%*&5!,-%,!*$$+!=%()(*1!/0,>!%*+!(*!$*,(,)$E$*,!F4/14%E5!,-%,!%4$!=$3/E(*1!E/4$!%*+!E/4$!+(CC(30),!,/!C0*+>!%*+!(*!)/D!,%H!4$<$*0$:!!!

!

!"#$%&'A')'4B'50$-.%"&,'%/-C&D'E7'.<&"%'%/."0'01'F0":'&-&%#7G'.0'F.0./:'&-&%#7GH'I0.&'

.</.'.<&'1"J&'KLL2M'50$-.%"&,'$,&'/'<"#<&%'+&%5&-./#&'01'0":'.</-'.<&'0.<&%'50$-.%"&,'01'

.<&'4$%0+&/-'B-"0-H'N7';$",'D&'M0$,/H'<..+OPP&$%0+&H.<&0":D%$6H506P-0D&PQRR('

;-$4$!-%5!=$$*!F0=)(3(,7!%=/0,!,-$!#TT8@!d#/4,01%)>!T4$)%*+>!T,%)7>!@F%(*!%*+!84$$3$e!-%<(*1!+$=,!F4/=)$E5:!T,!,04*5!/0,!,-%,!,-$!3/0*,4($5!,-%,!%4$!(*!E/5,!5$4(/05!C(*%*3(%)!3/*+(,(/*!%4$!F4$3(5$)7!,-$!/*$5!,-%,!1$,!)%41$5,!F$43$*,%1$!/C!,-$(4!$*$417!C4/E!/()U,-%,!(5>!,-$!/*3$!C/4!D-(3-!,-$!4%,(/!/C!#&'/!$!+46!,/!(#(1'/!$!+46!(5!-(1-$5,:!;-$!3/0*,47!D(,-!,-$!-(1-$5,!4%,(/!(5!84$$3$:!;-$!5$3/*+!-(1-$5,!(5!T4$)%*+>!%*+!,-$!,-(4+!-(1-$5,!(5!#/4,01%):!!

;-$4$!(5!*/!$%57!D%7!/0,>!$(,-$4>!=$3%05$!4%(5(*1!,%H$5!,$*+5!,/!3%05$!E/4$!4$3$55(/*>!%*+!E/4$!+$=,!+$C%0),5:!

C*J%K"&*2,D-*G).')1*'(*<-'44*C=,%1*

V-()$!,-$4$!-%5!=$$*!5/E$!4$+03,(/*!(*!-/05$-/)+!%*+!=05(*$55!+$=,>!(,!-%5*],!1/*$!<$47!C%4!7$,>!%*+!,-$4$!-%5!=$$*!%!=(1!(*34$%5$!(*!1/<$4*E$*,%)!+$=,!,/!/CC5$,!,-$!4$+03,(/*5:!

Page 8: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! ^!

!

!"#$%&'S')'@-&'+0,,"E:&',5&-/%"0'3".<'%&,+&5.'.0'BM'D&E.'

9<$*,0%))7>!,-/01->!,-$4$!D())!-%<$!,/!=$!%!E%G/4!4$+03,(/*!(*!+$=,:!T!%E!+/0=,C0)!,-%,!,-(5!D())!=$!+/*$!,-4/01-!%!5(*1)$!+$=,!G0=()$$>!-/D$<$4:!A/4$!)(&$)7>!5/E$!+$=,!D())!=$!3-%41$+!/CC>!%!=(,!%,!%!,(E$>!/4!*$D!+$)%7$+!F%7E$*,!F)%*5!D())!=$!F4/<(+$+:!@/E$!3/0*,4($5!E%7!4$C05$!,/!5$))!%*7!E/4$!1//+5!d(*3)0+(*1!/()e!,/!3/0*,($5!D(,-!/=<(/05!F4/=)$E5!F%7(*1!,-$(4!=())5:!!

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

'*$!,-(*1!T!C(*+!(*,$4$5,(*1!(5!,-%,!_@!3/*50E$4!+$=,!-(,!%!F$%&!(*!g0)7!SMM^>!%*+!5,%4,$+!+$3)(*(*1!,-$!5%E$!E/*,-!,-%,!/()!F4(3$5!+(+:!A/4,1%1$!+$=,!(5!/*)7!F0=)(5-$+!/*!%!O0%4,$4)7!=%5(5>!=0,!(,!-(,!%!F$%&!%=/0,!,-$!5%E$!,(E$:!6/,-!3/*,(*0$!,/!+$3)(*$>!D(,-!*$%4)7!$<$47!*$D!4$F/4,:!!!

!

Page 9: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! K!

!

!"#$%&'T'U0-,$6&%'U%&D".'@$.,./-D"-#'1%06'BM'!&D&%/:'*&,&%J&'VH('*&+0%.'

<@D(-'-@-,(*#%6*2,34'),*%-*-=,*<%#,*A'#,*%(*7'4*L*+,3%@(,*"9*-=,*2,D-*

G).')1*

T,!5$$E5!,/!E$!,-%,!%!4$+03,(/*!(*!+$=,!(5!)(&$)7!,/!4$+03$!+$E%*+!(*!1$*$4%)>!%*+!,-(5!D())!-%<$!%*!0*$HF$3,$+!$CC$3,U4$+03(*1!,-$!+$E%*+!d%*+!-$*3$!50FF)7e!/C!,-$!$*$417!F4/+03,5!,-%,!E(1-,!%3,!%5!50=5,(,0,$5!C/4!/()!Z!*%,04%)!1%5>!3/%)>!%*+!$<$*!*03)$%4>!D(*+!%*+!5/)%4:!

@(*3$!,-(5!(5*],!<$47!/=<(/05>!)$,]5!,%)&!%=/0,!(,!%!=(,:!6$3%05$!/C!)$55!+$=,!%<%()%=()(,7>!C$D$4!F$/F)$!D())!=$!%=)$!,/!%CC/4+!*$D!3%45>!/4!*$D!-/05$5>!/4!/,-$4!=(1!F043-%5$5:!!;-$!4$50),!(5!)(&$)7!,/!=$!%!30,=%3&!(*!+$E%*+!C/4!,-$!C0$)5!05$+!(*!,-$!E%*0C%3,04(*1!%*+!,4%*5F/4,!/C!,-$5$!=(1!F043-%5$!(,$E5cc%*+!,-$4$C/4$!)/D$4!F4(3$5!C/4!,-$5$!C0$)5:!;-(5!D/0)+!(*3)0+$!/()!%*+!*%,04%)!1%5>!=0,!(,!D/0)+!%)5/!(*3)0+$!C0$)5!C/4!$)$3,4(3(,7>!(*3)0+(*1!3/%)!%*+!D(*+!%*+!04%*(0E:!

?)5/>!D(,-!,-$!)/D$4!F4(3$5>!,-$!=05(*$55$5!F4/+03(*1!,-$5$!C/55()!C0$)5!D())!-%<$!)$55!3%5-!C)/D!d%*+!)$55!F4/C(,5e!,/!4$(*<$5,!(*!,-$(4!=05(*$55$5:!V(,-!,-$!)/D$4!E%4&$,!F4(3$5>!(,!D/*],!E%&$!5$*5$!,/!$H,4%3,!/()>!/4!*%,04%)!1%5>!/4!04%*(0E!C4/E!,-$!E/5,!$HF$*5(<$!)/3%,(/*5:!!TC!)/3%,(/*5!D-$4$!)/D!F4(3$+!C0$)!3%*!=$!/=,%(*$+!%4$!E/5,)7!,%FF$+!/0,!d%5!,-$7!%4$!C/4!/()!%*+!*%,04%)!1%5>!%*+!$<$*!04%*(0Ee>!,-(5!E$%*5!,-%,!,-$4$!D())!=$!C$D$4!50(,%=)$!5/043$5!C/4!$H,4%3,(/*!%,!F4(3$5!305,/E$45!3%*!%CC/4+:!!!9<$*!3/%)!E%7!=$!%CC$3,$+>!(C!,-$4$!(5!)$55!$)$3,4(3(,7!05$+:!

V(,-!)$55!+$E%*+!C/4!$)$3,4(3(,7>!0,()(,($5!3%*!=$!$HF$3,$+!,/!-%<$!)$55!*$$+!C/4!*$D!1$*$4%,(/*!/C!%*7!&(*+>!5/!*03)$%4>!D(*+>!%*+!5/)%4!F043-%5$5!/C!,-$!5(I$!0,()(,($5!3%*!=$!$HF$3,$+!,/!E%&$!E%7!=$!53%)$+!=%3&:!;-$4$!E%7!%)5/!=$!+(CC(30),7!C(*%*3(*1!,-$5$!*$D!5/043$5!/C!$)$3,4(3(,7>!(C!+$=,!(5!-%4+!,/!/=,%(*:!!

@/)%4!F%*$)5!%4$!/C,$*!%++$+!,/!*$D!-/E$5>!=0,!(C!,-$4$!%4$!C$D!*$D!-/E$5!=$(*1!=0(),>!,-$4$!D())!=$!C$D$4!5/)%4!F%*$)5!%5!D$)):!!f/E$/D*$45!3/*5(+$4(*1!%++(*1!5/)%4!F%*$)5!E%7!C(*+!(,!+(CC(30),!,/!/=,%(*!C(*%*3(*1!C/4!5/)%4!F%*$)5>!,//:!

Page 10: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! "M!

T!E(1-,!E$*,(/*!,-%,!,-$!$H,$*,!/C!,-$!4$3$55(/*!%*+!+$=,!0*D(*+!E%7!<%47!%4/0*+!,-$!D/4)+:!./0*,4($5!,-%,!05$!)(,,)$!/()!d)(&$!.-(*%!%*+!T*+(%e!E%7!-%<$!)$55!/C!,-(5!(EF%3,:!@/!,-$7!E%7!3/*,(*0$!,/!(*34$%5$!,-$(4!+$E%*+!C/4!3/%)>!$<$*!%5!+$<$)/F$+!3/0*,4($5!%4$!30,,(*1!=%3&>!=$3%05$!/C!4$3$55(/*:!@/!3/%)!05$!E%7!*/,!C%))!D/4)+D(+$>!$<$*!,-/01-!'9.J!3/0*,4($5!%4$!)(&$)7!,/!5$$!%!30,=%3&!(*!(,5!05$:!!

J%K"&*2".)-@&)*>'B,46*)"-*E%&*C.%6*

6$3%05$!/C!,-$!E%*7!(550$5!,-%,!T!-%<$!/0,)(*$+>!(,!5$$E5!,/!E$!,-%,!%!E%G/4!+/D*,04*!(5!*/,!C%4!%D%7:!T!,-(*&!D$!D())!=$!5$$(*1!E/4$!%*+!E/4$!+$=,!+$C%0),5>!%*+!,-%,!$<$*!5/E$!3/0*,4($5!E%7!+$C%0),:!

'*$!/C!E7!3/*3$4*5!*/D!(5!,-%,!1/<$4*E$*,5!4$%))7!*$$+!,/!4%(5$!,%H$5>!(C!,-$7!%4$!,/!F%7!C/4!%))!/C!,-$!F4/E(5$+!$*,(,)$E$*,5>!%*+!%)5/!*/,!+$C%0),!/*!,-$(4!+$=,:!!;-$!F4/=)$E!(5!,-%,!(C!,-$7!+/!4%(5$!,%H$5>!,-$*!3(,(I$*5!%*+!=05(*$55$5!D())!*$$+!,/!30,!=%3&!/*!,-$(4!5F$*+(*1:!;-(5!(5!)(&$)7!,/!)$%+!,/!E/4$!4$3$55(/*!%*+!E/4$!+$=,!+$C%0),5:!!!!

T!%E!%C4%(+!%))!/C!,-(5!D())!=$!<$47!+$,4(E$*,%)!,/!'&*+$&,)&-&+,&"+,+$.)C/4!%))!&(*+5!/C!(*<$5,E$*,5U/()>!/4!*%,04%)!1%5>!/4!D(*+>!/4!*$D!C%3,/4($5/!'*$!/C!,-$!E%G/4!4$%5/*5!(5!,-%,!+$=,!(5!)(&$)7!,/!=$!<$47!-(1-!F4(3$+!/4!*/,!%<%()%=)$!%,!%)):!V$!%4$!5/!05$+!,/!+$=,!C(*%*3(*1!*/D>!,-%,!%!30,=%3&!(*!+$=,!(5!)(&$)7!,/!=$!%!-01$!F4/=)$E:!!

T,!5$$E5!,/!E$!,-%,!(C!,-$4$!%4$!%!)/,!/C!+$=,!+$C%0),5>!,-$!(*,$4*%,(/*%)!C(*%*3(%)!575,$E!E%7!3$%5$!,/!C0*3,(/*!(*!,-$!D%7!D$!%4$!%3305,/E$+:!!@$))$45!/C!F4/+03,5>!503-!%5!/()>!E%7!+$3(+$!,-%,!,-$7!+/!*/,!D%*,!,/!,4%+$!D(,-!=07$45!D-/!-%<$*],!-%+!$*/01-!E/*$7!(*!,-$!4$3$*,!F%5,>!%*+!E%7!*/,!-%<$!$*/01-!(*!,-$!C0,04$:!;-(5!E(1-,!E$%*!,-%,!%!3/0*,47!)(&$!84$$3$>!/4!%!E03-!=(11$4!3/0*,47!D(,-!C(*%*3(%)!F4/=)$E5>!E(1-,!5,%4,!$*3/0*,$4(*1!F4/=)$E5!(*!=07(*1!1//+5!,-%,!,-$7!D$4$!%3305,/E$+!,/!=07(*1!(*!,-$!F%5,:!

/4"D%4'M%-'")*N,,1,1*9"&*;'0=*A,3=*:&"1@3-(*

T!%E!3/*3$4*$+!,-%,!$<$*,0%))7>!,-$!1)/=%)(I%,(/*!,-%,!D$!*$$+!C/4!-(1-c,$3-!F4/+03,5!E%7!=$3/E$!)$55!%<%()%=)$>!/<$4!%!C%(4)7!5-/4,!,(E$cF$4(/+:!V$!+/*],!,-(*&!%=/0,!(,>!=0,!-(1-!,$3-!1//+5>!503-!%5!3/EF0,$45!%*+!F/4,%=)$!,$)$F-/*$5>!4$O0(4$!(EF/4,5!C4/E!%4/0*+!,-$!D/4)+U/()>!5$<$4%)!&(*+5!/C!E$,%)5>!%*+!5/E$,(E$5!$<$*!4%4$!$%4,-!E(*$4%)5:!!?*+!,/!1$,!,-$5$!*$3$55%47!E%,$4(%)5!4$O0(4$5!$HF$4,(5$!C4/E!%4/0*+!,-$!D/4)+UC/4!$H%EF)$>!%!5F$3(%)(5,!(*!-%*+)(*1!%!F%4,(30)%4!,7F$!/C!F4/=)$E!(*!+4())(*1!/()!D$))5:!

;-$/4$,(3%))7>!(C!(*,$4*%,(/*%)!,4%+$!D$4$!4$+03$+>!D$!3/0)+!1$,!%)/*1!=7!05(*1!4$373)$+!E%,$4(%)5UF$4-%F5!E$,%)!C4/E!/)+!3%45>!/4!C4/E!F(F$5!(*!5-/FF(*1!3$*,$45:!60,!,-$5$!E$,%)5!D/0)+!*/,!=$!%5!F04$:!;-$7!D/0)+!D/4&!C/4!5/E$!1//+5>!=0,!*/,!C/4!/,-$45:!

Page 11: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! ""!

?"&41*J%6*!=%)0,*/&,%-46*

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

T,!D/0)+!5$$E!,/!E$!,-%,!(*!503-!%!5(,0%,(/*>!D/4)+!F/F0)%,(/*!D/0)+!=$!)(&$)7!,/!+$3)(*$!=$3%05$!C0$)5!%4$!*/,!%<%()%=)$!,/!F4/+03$!%+$O0%,$!C//+!%*+!D%,$4:!;-$4$!D/0)+!)(&$)7!=$!5,())!5/E$!<$5,(1$5!/C!1)/=%)(I%,(/*!C/4!E%*7!7$%45>!=0,!(,!D/0)+!=$!53%)$+!=%3&!14$%,)7:!!

T*!E%*7!D%75>!D-%,!D$!$HF$4($*3$!E(1-,!=$!5(E()%4!,/!D-%,!,-$!Q(E(,5!,/!84/D,-!E/+$)5!C4/E!,-$!$%4)7!"KLM5!5011$5,$+!E(1-,!-%FF$*>!0*+$4!5/E$!/C!,-$!E/4$!%+<$45$!53$*%4(/5:!;-$!F4/=)$E!D/0)+!=$!,//!E%*7!F$/F)$!,/!50FF/4,!D(,-!,-$!4$5/043$5!%<%()%=)$:!V$!3/0)+!*/,!&$$F!0F!/04!$H(5,(*1!)$<$)!/C!3/EF)$H(,7!D(,-!/04!4$+03$+!/()!50FF)7:!!

A=,*:%(-*E')%)3'%4*!&'('(*

TC!D$!-%<$!%!3/0F)$!/C!E(*0,$5!E/4$>!T!D/0)+!)(&$!,/!+/!%!C)%5-=%3&>!%*+!,%)&!%=/0,!D-%,!-%FF$*$+!(*!,-$!F%5,!C$D!7$%45>!D(,-!4$5F$3,!,/!,-$!C(*%*3(%)!34(5(5:!A%*7!F$/F)$!,-(*&!,-%,!/()!-%+!*/,-(*1!,/!+/!D(,-!D-%,!D$!$HF$4($*3$+>!=0,!T!,-(*&!,-$7!%4$!(*3/44$3,:!

TC!D$!,-(*&!=%3&!,/!D-%,!-%FF$*$+!(*!,-$!_@!(*!,-$!$%4)7!SMMM5>!,-$!F4(3$!/C!/()!=$1%*!4(5(*1!(*!O0(,$!$%4)7!(*!,-(5!F$4(/+:!@/E$!/C!,-$!$%4)7!4$5F/*5$!D%5!,/!,47!,/!E%&$!+$=,!E/4$!%<%()%=)$>!5/!%5!,/!$*3/04%1$!14/D,->!$<$*!(C!(,!D%5*],!P4$%)R!14/D,-:!!

!

!"#$%&'Q')'@4U9'@":'U0-,$6+."0-'WE:$&X'506+/%&D'.0'K%"5&'W%&DX''W2%/+<'E7'*$-&'

;"CJ&%-'01'333H.<&0":D%$6H506'X'

Page 12: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! "S!

67!SMM[>!-(1-!/()!F4(3$5!D$4$!<($D$+!%5!%!F4/=)$E:!;-$!2$+$4%)!B$5$4<$!5,%4,$+!4%(5(*1!(*,$4$5,!4%,$5>!%*+!&$F,!4%(5(*1!,-$E!$%3-!E/*,->!(*!%*!%,,$EF,!,/!3-/&$!=%3&!,-$!4(5$!(*!,-$!F4(3$!/C!F$,4/)$0E!F4/+03,5!%*+!C//+:!;-(5!D%5!(*!,-$!E(*0,$5!/C!,-$(4!E$$,(*15:!

!

!"#$%&'Y')'BM'!&D&%/:'!$-D,'%/.&'WE:$&X'/-D'/J&%/#&'=R'7&/%'1"Z&D'60%.#/#&'%/.&['

E/,&D'0-'D/./'01'%&,&/%5<H,.:0$",1&DH0%#H'

Q//&(*1!=%3&!%,!2(104$!L>!=7!SMM\>!/()!3/*50EF,(/*!/C!'9.J!-%+!5,%4,$+!+$3)(*(*1:!T!D/0)+!%410$!,-%,!F%4,!/C!,-(5!F%4,)7!(*!4$5F/*5$!,/!,-$!-(1-$4!/()!F4(3$5!(*!,-(5!F$4(/+>!%*+!F%4,)7!(*!4$5F/*5$!,/!,-$!2$+$4%)!B$5$4<$]5!-(1-$4!,%41$,!(*,$4$5,!4%,$5>!D-(3-!D$4$!(*+(4$3,)7!,-$!4$50),!/C!-(1-$4!/()!%*+!C//+!F4(3$5:!@/!F$/F)$!C/0*+!,-$E5$)<$5!D(,-!-(1-$4!3/5,5!/*!-/E$!(EF4/<$E$*,!)/%*5>!%*+!/*!=05(*$55!)/%*5>!%,!,-$!5%E$!,(E$!,-%,!/()!%*+!C//+!F4(3$5!D$4$!4(5(*1:!!

;-$!2$+UD-/!-%+!4%(5$+!,%41$,!(*,$4$5,!4%,$5U1/,!%!1//+!+$%)!E/4$!,-%*!(,!D%5!)//&(*1!C/4>!=$3%05$!=7!%=/0,!,-$!,(E$!/()!3/*50EF,(/*!5,%4,$+!+$3)(*(*1U,-%,!(5!SMM\U5/!+(+!-/E$!F4(3$5:!d'()!F4(3$5!4$%))7!+(+*],!3/E$!+/D*:e!!

!

!"#$%&'\')'B-".&D'M./.&,']0$,"-#'K%"5&,'1%06'<0$,"-#E$EE:&H^+/%,0-,H-&.'

;-$!5,/4($5!(*!_@!*$D5F%F$45!,%)&$+!%=/0,!-/D!-/E$!F4(3$5!(*!,-$!+(5,%*,!50=04=5!D$4$!F%4,(30)%4)7!%CC$3,$+:!@0=F4(E$!=/44/D$45!D$4$!F%4,(30)%4)7!%CC$3,$+>!=0,!/*$!

Page 13: 67!8%()!9:!;!2.?@>!A???!theoildrum.com/files/Tverberg_Peak Oil and the... · 2//+!(5!$55$*,(%)>!%*+!1%5/)(*$!c/4!3/ee0,(*1!(5!$55$*,(%)>!5/!f$/f)$!d())!30,!=%3&!/*!

! ! ! ! ! !

! "W!

D/0)+!$HF$3,!50=F4(E$!=/44/D$45!,/!=$!F%4,(30)%4)7!%CC$3,$+>!5(*3$!%*7!3-%*1$!(*!,-$!%E/0*,!/C!E/*$7!,-%,!,-$7!-%+!%<%()%=)$!,/!5F$*+!D/0)+!O0(3&)7!=$!,4%*5)%,$+!(*,/!%!30,=%3&!5/E$D-$4$!$)5$U%*+!C/4!E%*7>!,-%,!E$%*,!E(55(*1!E/4,1%1$!F%7E$*,5:!

T*!SMM^!%*+!SMMK>!D$!&*/D!O0(,$!%!=(,!/C!,-$!5,/47:!'()!F4(3$5!(*34$%5$+!,/!%!-(1-!/C!`"[L!%!=%44$)!(*!g0)7!SMM^>!=0,>!*$$+)$55!,/!5%7>!5%)%4($5!+(+*],!4(5$!%33/4+(*1)7:!f(1-!/()!F4(3$5!)$+!,/!%!30,=%3&!(*!+(534$,(/*%47!5F$*+(*1>!%*+!3%05$+!F$/F)$!,/!+$C%0),!/*!,-$(4!+$=,5:!67!g0)7!SMM^>!,-$!,$*5(/*!=$,D$$*!,-$!*$$+!C/4!-(1-$4!/()!F4(3$5!%*+!F$/F)$!*/,!=$(*1!%=)$!,/!%CC/4+!,-$!-(1-!F4(3$5!D%5!=4/&$*>!%*+!/()!F4(3$5!=$1%*!C%))(*1:!!?5!D$!5%D!$%4)($4>!34$+(,!%<%()%=()(,7!F$%&$+!%,!,-$!5%E$!,(E$!%5!/()!F4(3$5!F$%&$+:!!

T,!5$$E5!,/!E$!,-%,!/()!F4(3$5!+/*],!G05,!&$$F!4(5(*1:!T*5,$%+>!,-$7!,$*+!,/!-(,!%*!%CC/4+%=()(,7!,-4$5-/)+>!%*+!,-$*!3/E$!=%3&!+/D*!%1%(*:!!;-$!%CC/4+%=()(,7!,-4$5-/)+!5$$E5!,/!=$!4$)%,$+!,/!9*$417!B$,04*!/*!9*$417!T*<$5,$+!d9B'Te:!6%5$+!/*!D/4&!/C!J%<$!A04F-7!dE$*,(/*$+!$%4)($4e>!,-(5!,-4$5-/)+!5$$E5!,/!=$!(*!,-$!`^M!,/!`^X!=%44$)!4%*1$!C/4!,-$!_*(,$+!@,%,$5U5,())!,//!)/D!%!)$<$)!,/!E%&$!E/5,!%),$4*%,(<$5!F4/C(,%=)$:!!

T*!)%,$!SMM^>!/()!F4(3$5!+4/FF$+!C%4!=$)/D!,-$!`^M!c`^X!=%44$)!4%*1$>!=0,!*/D!(,!%FF$%45!,-%,!/()!F4(3$5!%4$!%1%(*!=%3&!0F!,/!,-$!F4/=)$E!4%*1$:!@/!D$!3%*!$HF$3,!E/4$!+$C%0),5>!=/,-!(*!,-$!_@!%*+!(*!/,-$4!3/0*,4($5:!?*+>!%5!T!5%(+!$%4)($4>!(,!)//&5!,/!E$!%5!,-/01-!D$!%4$!)(&$)7!-$%+$+!C/4!%!E%G/4!+/D*,04*!(*!*/,!,//!E%*7!7$%45>!5(E()%4!,/!D-%,!Q(E(,5!,/!84/D,-!E/+$)5!C4/E!,-$!"KLM5!5011$5,$+:!