6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Cost reduction offshore windATO/We@Sea conference

Ernst van Zuijlen / Chris Westra6 december 2012

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Target of the TKI

• Cost reduction by 2020

Kosten/kWh

Jaarlijkse kosten

Brutooutput

Afschrijving

Financierings-kosten / Risico

Verliezen

O&Mkosten

KOSTPRIJS

1/ Jaarlijks# kWh

OUTPUT

KOSTEN

-25%

+21%

-25%

WACC

Gemiddeld uitstaand kapitaal

-10%

-33%(0.9x0.75)

*Gebaseerd op de volgende kostenverdeling: 25-35% O&M, 40-50% CAPEX, 20-30% financieringskosten

∆ OUTPUT: +21%

∆ KOSTEN*: -27%

∆ KOSTPRIJS -40%

-25%

40%

Yearly Costs

O&M Costs

Depreciation

Finance / risk

WACC

Capital

1/ Yearly Output

Gross Output

Losses

Levelised costs / kWh

COSTS

OUTPUT

COSTPRICE

COSTS

COSTPRICE

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Target

• Levelised costs offshore wind at € 100 / MWh2010:

166 €/MWh

2020:99 €/MWh

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Actual average Capex (per MW)

adapted from Greenacre et al. (2010).

dssdsdsd

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Further cost increases

• Planning and consent procedure • Building and operational Risk

– Experiences (grout, gear boxes......)– Perception of risk

• Lack of standardisation• Further at sea, deeper water

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Bigger, deeper, further

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

UK findings (cost reduction; 1)

• Larger turbines with higher reliability and energy capture and lower operating costs.

• Increased competition in key supply markets

Kosten/kWh

Jaarlijkse kosten

Brutooutput

Afschrijving

Financierings-kosten / Risico

Verliezen

O&Mkosten

KOSTPRIJS

1/ Jaarlijks# kWh

OUTPUT

KOSTEN

-25%

+21%

-25%

WACC

Gemiddeld uitstaand kapitaal

-10%

-33%(0.9x0.75)

*Gebaseerd op de volgende kostenverdeling: 25-35% O&M, 40-50% CAPEX, 20-30% financieringskosten

∆ OUTPUT: +21%

∆ KOSTEN*: -27%

∆ KOSTPRIJS -40%

-25%

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Innovative turbines

Norwegian Sway 10MW offshore wind turbine, the ST10. The company claimed an estimated 15-20% reduction in turbine cost, and a considerable reduction in cost per kWh produced.

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

UK findings (cost reduction; 2)

• Economies of scale and standardisation (mass produced deeper water foundations.

• Optimisation of installation methods.• Wind farm design en supplier involvement• Reduced WACC!!

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

The Dutch approach

• R&D: TKI / FLOW / we@sea programme

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Project Leeghwater

• A demonstration / pilot plant

About 8 consortia x 2 installations @ 6 MW

PILOT PLANT ~100 MW

DEMONSTRATION FARM ~200 MW

Various consortiafor test projects within the pilot plant

(BOOT)

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Dutch cost reduction policy options

Measures to be taken by the government:• Socialisation of the offshore grid • Long term stable policy• Optimised regulatory framework• Risk sharing (finance)• More space available close to the shore

(Hollandse kust)

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Spatial planning Hollandse Kust

• Option with minimal space • Option with maximal space

(2 Nautical miles (NM) and 5 NM from platforms)2 oktober 2012

Aanwijzing HK en TNW

conceptconcept

( 500 meter from shipning lanes

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

NL Translation UK findings (Ecofys)

• All efforts needed:– R&D– Demonstration– Market development– Socialisation of grid costs– Policy optimisation– Reduction of finance costs

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

A leading role for the Dutch?

• Support structures • Transport, Installation & Logistics • O&M • Project development• Port facilities

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Dutch contributions

Of de DOT: “Delft Offshore Turbine”?

2B-Energy

XEMC-DarwinD

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Dutch contributions

• Smart scour protection

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Dutch contributions

• Transfer systems for personnel and “small” components

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Dutch contributions

• Slip joint– (no grout, no transition piece)

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Dutch contributions

• Integrated design of foundation and tower

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

www.tki-windopzee.nl

6 december 2012 ATO/we@sea

Next goal: implementation

*** ********

Amalia enEgmond

Gemini 1

Start of implementation

Pilot plant +Demofarm

Q10Gemini 2

Total MW (right)MW per year (left)