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Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

Executive Summary

The main aim of the investor is to minimize the risk involved in investment &

maximize the return. Today there are number of options available to investor like Post

Office investment, Bank Deposit, nsurance, !utual "und, #tock !arket etc...

Technical analysis is a financial markets techni$ue that claims the ability to forecast

the future direction of security prices throu%h the study of past market data, primarily

price and volume.

This proect is about a brief introduction to Technical 'nalysis, different price

patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit that patterns.etc( Thecontents in this proect are made simple so as to make a layman understands the terms

used in the Technical 'nalysis.

The core area of this proect focuses )hat a technical analysts may employ models

and tradin% rules based, for example, on price transformations, such as the *elative

#tren%th ndex, movin% avera%es, throu%h reco%nition of chart patterns. This proect

contains some elementary statistics )hich are used in calculation )hich help in

dra)in% inferences.

The obective of the study helps to predict or forecast the short, intermediate & lon%

term price movements. +hen to buy and sell stock by analyzin% technical indicators.

'nd helps to measure to the rate of chan%e bet)een the current price and price in

past and to identify overbou%ht& oversold re%ion. The art of technical analysis for it

is an art is to identify trend chan%es at an early sta%e and to maintain an investment an

investment posture until the )ei%ht of the evidence indicates that the trend has been

reversed.

Technical 'nalysis also provides a comprehensive study on stock historical price

charts and predicts the future trend in the market. But still there is much controversial

opinion on the validity of technical tradin% rule. t re$uires more study to prove the

usefulness of technical analysis in investors buy/sell/hold decision makin%.

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INTRODUCTION

ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Technical analysis is a financial markets techni$ue that claims the ability to forecast

the future direction of security prices throu%h the study of past market data, primarily

price and volume. n its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price

behavior of the market or instrument, on the assumption that price reflects all relevant

factors before an investor becomes a)are of them throu%h other channels.

Technical analysts may employ models and tradin% rules based, for example, on price

transformations, such as the *elative #tren%th ndex, movin% avera%es, re%ressions,

inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, throu%h

reco%nition of chart patterns.

Genera !e"cri#ti$n

Technical analysts or technicians/ seek to identify price patterns and trends in

financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. +hile technicians use various

methods and tools, the study of price charts is primary. Technicians especially search

for archetypal patterns, such as the )ell-kno)n head and shoulders reversal pattern,

and also study such indicators as price, volume, and movin% avera%es of the price.

!any technical analysts also follo) indicators of investor psycholo%y.

0ritics ar%ue that these 1patterns1 are simply random effects on )hich humans impose

causation. They state that human see patterns that aren1t there and then ascribe value

to them.

Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, )hich are typically mathematical

transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help determine

)hether an asset is trendin%, and if it is, its price direction. Technicians also look for

relationships bet)een price, volume, and in the case of futures, open interest.

2xamples include the relative stren%th index, and !'0D. Other avenues of study


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include correlations bet)een chan%es in options 3implied volatility4 and put5call ratios

)ith price.

Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that lar%e %ains from successful

trades exceed more numerous but smaller losin% trades, producin% positive returns in

the lon% run throu%h proper risk control and money mana%ement.

Technical analysis is fre$uently contrasted )ith fundamental analysis, the study of

economic factors that some analysts say can influence prices in financial markets.

Pure technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such influences before

investors are a)are of them, hence the study of price action alone. #ome traders usetechnical or fundamental analysis exclusively, )hile others use both types to make

tradin% decisions.

Lac% $& evi!ence

0ritics of technical analysis include )ell kno)n fundamental analysts. "or example,

Peter 6ynch once commented, 70harts are %reat for predictin% the past.7 +arren

Buffet has said, 7 realized technical analysis didn1t )ork )hen turned the charts

upside do)n and didn1t %et a different ans)er7 and 7f past history )as all there )as

to the %ame, the richest people )ould be librarians8.

!ost academic studies say technical analysis has little predictive po)er, but some

studies say it may produce excess returns. "or example, measurable forms of

technical analysis, such as non-linear prediction usin% neural net)orks, have been

sho)n to occasionally produce statistically si%nificant prediction results. ' "ederal

*eserve )orkin% paper re%ardin% support and resistance levels in short-term forei%n

exchan%e rates 7offers stron% evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend

interruptions,7 althou%h the 7predictive po)er7 of those levels )as 7found to vary

across the exchan%e rates and firms examined.7


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E&&icient mar%et 'y#$t'e"i"

The efficient market hypothesis 2!9/ contradicts the basic tenets of technical

analysis, by statin% that past prices cannot be used to profitably predict future prices.

Thus it holds that technical analysis cannot be effective. 2conomist 2u%ene "ame

published the seminal paper on the 2!9 in the :ournal of "inance in ;, and said

7n short, the evidence in support of the efficient markets model is extensive, and

contradictory evidence is sparse8. 2!9 advocates say that if prices $uickly reflect all

relevant information, no method includin% technical analysis/ can 7beat the market.7Developments )hich influence prices occur randomly and are unkno)able in

advance.

Technicians say that 2!9 i%nores the )ay markets )ork, in that many investors base

their expectations on past earnin%s or track record, for example. Because future stock

prices can be stron%ly influenced by investor expectations, technicians claim it only

follo)s that past prices influence future prices.

Ran!$m (a% 'y#$t'e"i"

The random )alk hypothesis may be derived from the )eak-form efficient markets

hypothesis, )hich is based on the assumption that market participants take full

account of any information contained in past price movements.7The problem is that

once such re%ularity is kno)n to market participants, people )ill act in such a )ay

that prevents it from happenin% in the future8.

Hi"t$ry

The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial markets

over hundreds of years. The oldest kno)n example of technical analysis )as a

method used by :apanese traders as early as the ;?th century, )hich evolved into the

use of candlestick techni$ues, and is today a main chartin% tool. !any more technical

tools and theories have been developed and enhanced in recent decades, )ith an

increasin% emphasis on computer-assisted techni$ues.


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)rinci#e" $& tec'nica anay"i"

Technicians say that a market1s price reflects all relevant information, so their analysis

looks more at 7internals7 than at 7externals7 such as ne)s events. Price action also

tends to repeat itself because investors collectively tend to)ard patterned behavior --

hence technicians1 focus on identifiable trends and conditions.

*ar%et acti$n !i"c$unt" everyt'in+

On most of the sizable return days the information that the press cites as the cause of

the market move is not particularly important. Press reports on adacent days also fail

to reveal any convincin% accounts of )hy future profits or discount rates mi%ht have

chan%ed. Our inability to identify the fundamental shocks that accounted for these

si%nificant market moves is difficult to reconcile )ith the vie) that such shocks

account for most of the variation in stock returns.

)rice" m$ve in tren!"

Technical analysts believe that prices trend. Technicians say that markets trend up,

do)n, or side)ays flat/. 'n example of a security that had an apparent trend is 'O6

from @ovember A>>; throu%h 'u%ust A>>A. ' technical analyst or trend follo)er

reco%nizin% this trend )ould look for opportunities to sell this security. 'O6

consistently moves do)n)ard in price. 2ach time the stock rose, sellers )ould enter

the market and sell the stock hence the 7zi%-za%7 movement in the price. n other

)ords, each time the stock ed%ed lo)er, it fell belo) its previous relative lo) price.

Hi"t$ry ten!" t$ re#eat it"e&

Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the

investors that preceded them. Technical analysis is not limited to chartin%, yet is

al)ays concerned )ith price trends. "or example, many technicians monitor surveys

of investor sentiment.. Technicians use these surveys to help determine )hether a

trend )ill continue or if a reversal could develop they are most likely to anticipate a

chan%e )hen the surveys report extreme investor sentiment.


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Rue,-a"e! tra!in+

*ule-based tradin% is an approach to make one1s tradin% plans by strict and clear-cut

rules. Cnlike some other technical methods or most fundamental analysis, it defines a

set of rules that determines all trades, leavin% minimal discretion. "or instance, a

trader mi%ht make a set of rules statin% that he )ill take a lon% position )henever the

price of a particular instrument closes above its >-day movin% avera%e, and shortin%

it )henever it drops belo).

C$m-inin+ Tec'nica Anay"i" (it' $t'er *ar%et .$reca"t *et'$!"

:ohn !urphy in his book 7Technical 'nalysis of the "inancial !arkets7, says that the

principal sources of information available to technicians are price, volume and open

interest. Other data, such as indicators and sentiment analysis are considered

secondary. Technical analysis is also often combined )ith $uantitative analysis and

economics. "or example, neural net)orks may be used to help identify inter market

relationships. ' fe) market forecasters combine financial astrolo%y )ith technical

analysis.

C'artin+ term" an! in!icat$r"

+idely-kno)n technical analysis concepts includeE

Breakout - )hen a price passes throu%h and stays above an area of support or

resistance 0ommodity 0hannel ndex - identifies cyclical trends

!omentum - the rate of price chan%e

!ovin% avera%e - la%s behind the price action

*elative #tren%th ndex *#/ - oscillator sho)in% price stren%th

*esistance - an area that brin%s on increased sellin%

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AN OERIE0 O. STOC1 *AR1ET:

' stock market is a private or public market for the tradin% of company stock and

derivatives of company stock at an a%reed price both of these are securities listed on

a stock exchan%e as )ell as those only traded privately.

DefinitionE

The expression 1stock market1 refers to the market that enables the tradin% of company

stocks collective shares/, other securities, and derivatives. Bonds are still

traditionally traded in an informal, over-the-counter market kno)n as the bond

market. 0ommodities are traded in commodities markets, and derivatives are traded in

a variety of markets but, like bonds, mostly 1over-the-counter1/.

*ar%et #artici#ant":

!any years a%o, )orld)ide, buyers and sellers )ere individual investors, such as

)ealthy businessmen, )ith lon% family histories to particular corporations. Over time,

markets have become more 7institutionalized7 buyers and sellers are lar%ely

institutions e.%., pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, hed%e funds,

investor %roups, and banks/.

The rise of the institutional investor has brou%ht )ith it some improvements in marketoperations. Thus, the %overnment )as responsible for 7fixed7 fees bein% markedly

reduced for the 1small1 investor, but only after the lar%e institutions had mana%ed to

break the brokers1 solid front on fees they then )ent to 1ne%otiated1 fees, but only for

lar%e institutions/.

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Im#$rtance $& "t$c% mar%et:

.uncti$n an! #ur#$"e:

The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money.

This allo)s businesses to %o public, or raise additional capital for expansion. The

li$uidity that an exchan%e provides affords investors the ability to $uickly and easily

sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investin% in stocks, compared to other

less li$uid investments such as real estate.

Reati$n $& t'e "t$c% mar%et t$ t'e m$!ern &inancia "y"tem:

The financial system in most )estern countries has under%one a remarkable

transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. ' portion of the

funds involved in savin% and financin% flo)s directly to the financial markets instead

of bein% routed via banks1 traditional lendin% and deposit operations. The %eneral

public1s hei%htened interest in investin% in the stock market, either directly or throu%h

mutual funds, has been an important component of this process. #tatistics sho) that inrecent decades shares have made up an increasin%ly lar%e proportion of households1

financial assets in many countries.

;. The #tock !arket, individual investors & financial riskE

*iskier lon%-term savin% re$uires that an individual possess the ability to mana%e the

associated increased risks. #tock prices fluctuate )idely, in marked contrast to the

stability of bank deposits or bonds. This is somethin% that could affect not only the

individual investor or household, but also the economy on a lar%e scale. This is

certainly more important no) that so many ne)comers have entered the stock market,

or have ac$uired other 1risky1 investments.

Irrati$na -e'avi$r:

#ometimes the market tends to react irrationally to economic ne)s, even if that ne)s

has no real affect on the technical value of securities itself. Therefore, the stock

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market can be s)ayed tremendously in either direction by press releases, rumors,

euphoria and mass panic. Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can be

battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-chan%in% events, makin% the stock

market difficult to predict.

F. The 0rashesE

' stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of e$uities listed

on the stock exchan%es. n parallel )ith various economic factors, a reason for stock

market crashes is also due to panic. Often, stock market crashes end up )ith

speculative economic bubbles.

St$c% mar%et in!ex:

The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in price

indices called stock market indices, of )hich there are many, e.%., the #&P, the "T#2

and the 2uro next indices. #uch indices are usually market capitalization the total

market value of floatin% capital of the company/ )ei%hted, )ith the )ei%hts reflectin%

the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are revie)ed

fre$uently to include5exclude stocks in order to reflect the chan%in% business

environment.

Derivative in"trument":

"inancial innovation has brou%ht many ne) financial instruments )hose pay-offs or

values depend on the prices of stocks. #ome examples are exchan%e-traded funds

2T"s/, stock index and stock options, e$uity s)aps, sin%le-stock futures, and stock

index futures. These last t)o may be traded on futures exchan%es )hich are distinct

from stock exchan%esGtheir history traces back to commodities futures exchan%es/,

or traded over-the-counter. 's all of these products are only derivedfrom stocks, they

are sometimes considered to be traded in a hypothetical/ derivatives market, rather

than the hypothetical/ stock market.

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Ne( i""uance:

Hlobal issuance of e$uity and e$uity-related instruments totaled I> billion in A>>F,

a A>K. nitial public offerin%s POs/

by C# issuers increased AA;J )ith AKK offerin%s that raised IF billion, and POs in

2urope, !iddle 2ast and 'frica 2!2'/ increased by KKKJ, from I < billion to IK, K>, >, ;>>, and A>>-day

avera%es. 2ach movin% avera%e provides a different interpretation on )hat the stock

price )ill do. !ovin% avera%es )ith different time spans each tell a different story.

The shorter the time span, the more sensitive the movin% avera%e )ill be to price

chan%es. The lon%er the time span, the less sensitive or the more smoothed the

movin% avera%e )ill be. !ovin% avera%es are used to emphasize the direction of a

trend and smooth out price and volume fluctuations or that can confuse interpretation.

The %eneral assumption behind all movin% avera%es is that once the stock price moves

above the avera%e it may have substantial momentum behind it and is )orth buyin%.

The opposite is true if the price of a security moves belo) the movin% avera%e.

Typically, )hen a stock price moves belo) its movin% avera%e it is a bad si%n

because the stock is movin% on a ne%ative trend. The opposite is true for stocksthat

exceed their movin% avera%e - in this case, hold on for the ride.

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4;Reative "tren+t' in!ex:

There are a fe) different tools that can be used to interpret the stren%th of a stock.

One of these is the *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, )hich is a comparison bet)een the

days that a stock finishes up and the days it finishes do)n. This indicator is a bi% tool

in momentum tradin%.

The *# is a reasonably simple model that anyone can use. t is calculated usin% the

follo)in% formula.

RSI < 2== , >2==/?2 @ RS;

*# Q 'v%. of n-day up closes//'v%. of n-day do)n closes/

The *# ran%es from > to ;>>. 't around the => levels, a stock is considered

overbou%htand you should consider sellin%. n abull marketsome believe that ?> is a

better level to indicate an overbou%ht stock since stocks often trade at hi%her

valuations durin% bull markets. 6ike)ise, if the *# approaches K>, a stock is

considered oversold and you should consider buyin%. '%ain, make the adustment to

A> in abear market.

The smaller the number of days used, the more volatile the *# is and the more often

it )ill hit extremes. ' lon%er term *# is more rollin%, fluctuatin% a lot less. Different

sectors and industries have varyin% threshold levels )hen it comes to the *#. #tocks

in some industries )ill %o as hi%h as =-?> before droppin% back, )hile others have a

tou%h time breakin% past =>. ' %ood rule is to )atch the *# over the lon% term one

year or more/ to determine at )hat level the historical *# has traded and ho) the

stock reacted )hen it reached those levels.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overbought.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversold.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overbought.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversold.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

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43 Overvie( $& Re#$rt

C'a#ter "c'eme:

C'a#ter 2: Intr$!ucti$n

This chapter includes ntroduction of Technical analysis and 0ement sector.

C'a#ter 4: Re"earc' !e"i+n

*esearch desi%n is the blue print of the study. t provides a frame)ork under )hich

the research has been conducted. t includes title of the study, problem statement,

obectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data collection and

interpretation and an overvie) of chapter scheme.

C'a#ter 6: In!u"try #r$&ie

This chapter covers the industry profile.

C'a#ter 7: Anay"i" an! Inter#retati$n $& !ataThis chapter includes the data collected for the purpose of research and the

interpretation of the data, tables and %raphs are used )herever necessary.

C'a#ter 8: Summary $& .in!in+" C$ncu"i$n" Rec$mmen!ati$n"

This chapter provides maor findin%s and conclusions of the study for it also includes

the recommendation made by the researcher.

Bi-i$+ra#'y

Annexure

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63 INDUSTRY )RO.ILE

INTRODUCTION TO CE*ENT SECTOR

ndia is today the second lar%est producer of cement in )orld )ith an installed

capacity of close to ; million tonnes per year. J per annum. !ore than

J of production comes from lar%e cement plants. There are a total of ;K> lar%e and

more than K> small cement manufacturin% units in the country. !ore than ?>J of

the cement-manufacturin% units use modern environment friendly Rdry8 process.

The forms of cement producedE

Ordinary Portland 0ement

Portland Pozzolana 0ement

Portland #la% 0ement

Blended 0ement

!aor players in ndian cement sectorE

9eidelber%

6afar%e

talcementi

9olcim

Hurat 'mbua 0ement

'00

Cltratech 0ement

ndia 0ements

0entury 0ements

:aypee Hroup

!adras 0ements

Dalima cements

ndias per capita cement productionE ;K> k% per annum. +orld avera%e of per capita

cement productionE !ore than A?> k% per annum.

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have been many a)ards and felicitations for achievements in *ural and community

development, #afety, 9ealth, Tree plantation, afforestation, clean minin%,

2nvironment a)areness and protection.

A. ULTRATECHE

Cltratech 0ement 6imited, a Hrasim subsidiary has an annual capacity of ;= million

tonnes. t manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland 0ement, Portland Blast

"urnace #la% 0ement and Portland Pozzolana 0ement.

CltraTech has five inte%rated plants, five %rindin% units and three terminals G t)o in

ndia and one in #ri 6anka. These include an inte%rated plant and t)o %rindin% units

of the erst)hile @armada 0ement 0ompany 6imited, a subsidiary, )hich has been

amal%amated )ith the company in !ay A>>N.CltraTech is the country1s lar%est

exporter of cement clinker. The company exports over A. million tonnes per annum,

)hich is about K> per cent of the country1s total exports. The export markets span

countries around the ndian Ocean, 'frica, 2urope and the !iddle 2ast.

The cement division of 6&T )as demer%ed in A>>F after Hrasim made the K> per

cent open offer for e$uity shares, %ainin% control over the ne) company, christened

CltraTech. *eady !ix 0oncrete is likely to see substantial %ro)th in the comin%

years. *eco%nizin% the opportunities that this business )ill offer, CltraTech has

commenced settin% up of *eady !ix 0oncrete plants at various places in the country.

CltraTech1s subsidiaries areE Dakshin 0ements 6imited and CltraTech 0eylinco

Private/ 6imited.

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K. GRASI*:

Hrasim ndustries 6imited, a fla%ship company of the 'ditya Birla Hroup, ranks

amon% ndia1s lar%est private sector companies, )ith consolidated net revenues of

*s.;F; billion and a consolidated net profit of *s.A> billion"A>>=/.

#tartin% as a textiles manufacturer in ;

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A. BIRLA SU))ER

t is a unit of Hrasim Birla #uper 0ement is a %rindin% unit of ;. !illion Tons

capacity )ith a modern technolo%y manufacturin% process involves a level ofsophistication & ne) to the 0ement industry.

The technolo%y )as supplied by 1rupp Polysis7 of Hermany such as *oller Press,Hrindin% !ill. 2lectronic Packer enables for automatic packin% & )ei%hin% of0ement Ba%s. Cnloadin% of ra) material 0linker/, )hich is bein% received fromrail)ay, +a%ons are unloaded by atomised 1+a%on Tippler1. 'll the process ofmanufacturin% and packin% are atomized & is controlled throu%h electronic devices &P60 at 0entral 0ontrol *ooms Plant, Packin% Plant & +a%on Tippler.Three %rades of Products i.e. OP0 FK Hrade, OP0 K & PP0 are manufactured. The

brand names of these $ualities are 1*aashree1, 1Birla #uper1 & 1Birla Plus1 respectively.

The plant po)er is connected to ;KA S Po)er supply of !#2B %rid & havin%connected load of ;AN> +. 'll 2lectrical & nstruments e$uipment is of latestdesi%n & hi%h efficiency.The unit has )on the @ational ')ard for the 72xcellence in 2ner%y conservation7from the 0 forthe A>>>-1>> & A>>;-1>A consecutively for the outstandin% savin% in ener%y.

The unit has ba%%ed Nati$na A(ar! for 12ner%y 0onservation & 2ner%y!ana%ement1 or%anised by 0 for t)ice i.e., A>>>-1>> & A>>;-1>A.

!ana%ement of 1Birla #uper 0ement1 takes keen interest in reduction of 1ener%y cost1by implementin% ener%y conservation activities and mana%in% plant operatin% timesto avail the maximum benefits from the #tate 2lectricity Board in 1Po)er factor1,1@i%ht 0onsumption rebate& 1Bulk discount1.

"ollo)in% are the maor 2nvironmental & #afety 'ctivities done at our plant. nclusion of PP0 %rade 0ement to utilize )aste fly ash from po)er plant. 'tomized handlin% of fly ash throu%h air ti%ht tankers to avoid fu%itive natural

escape of fly ash to environment.

Pneumatic unloadin% systems for dust free unloadin% of fly ash from tankers. nstallation of additional t)o dust collectors at +5T to avoid dust emission. nstallation of %ypsum shed of AU>>> !T to avoid land contamination. Development of rain )ater harvestin% reservoir. 0overin% of belt conveyors to avoid dust emission durin% transportation


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A*BUFA CE*ENT

Am-u5a Cement")as set up in ;

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ANALYSIS INTER)RETATIONS :

2; ACC: *$vin+ Avera+e

S'$rt Term *$vin+ Avera+e:


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n the above chart blue color sho)s the closin% price and red colorsho)s the !ovin% avera%ei.e. Kmonths/

!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip.

n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicatesthe possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is %enerated durin% :,"ebruary , :uly& October.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility ofthe further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% 'pril, !ay &December

The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% from October to :anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from 'u%ust to @ovember.

L$n+ Term *$vin+ Avera+e:


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This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!color indicates lon%

term movin% avera%e i.e., ;Amonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the

possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin%

December & October.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the

further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% #eptember & :anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from October to :anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% from October to 'u%ust .


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4; GRASI*:


n the above chart, V axis indicates month and the axis indicates theprice of scrip.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e., K months !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is

%enerated durin% December, October & :une.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% :uly,may ,& 'u%ust

"rom :anuary to October there is a risin% trend and from !arch toDecember there is a fallin% trend.



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This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin%avera%e.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!color

indicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e., ;A months !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% 'u%ust, October and :une.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% !arch &:anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from !ay to October.

The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% in the month of !arch to:anuary..


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6; Utratec': *OEING AERAGE



n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e.,Kmonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is

%enerated durin% :anuary, October & December.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% :uly &

@ovember.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :une to :anuary.

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. $

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This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin%avera%e.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e., ;Amonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% December,& :anuary.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% :uly, !ay

& :anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to :anuary.

.

BIRLA SUPER


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MOVING AVERAGE

Short term moving average

n the above chart WV axis sho)s the months and W axis sho)s the pricescrip

n the above chart Blue colour indicates the closin% Price and red sho)s theavera%e

n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates thepossibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is %enerated in "ebruary and

December

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated 'u%ust and'pril.

The movin% avera%e continuously fallin% in :uly and December

The !ovin% avera%e continuously risin% in 'pril and December

Long term


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This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!color indicates lon%term movin% avera%e i.e., ;>months !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% 'pril,& December.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% 'u%ust,&,'pril

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from 'pril to December

AMBUJA CEMENT

MOVING AVERAGE


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Short term


n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e.,Kmonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% :une,:uly, 'u%ust

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% !ay eptember.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to #eptember.

Long term


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n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!color

indicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e.,;Amonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% ,:uly &, 'u%ust

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% !ay eptember.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to #eptember.


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83 Summary $& .in!in+" Su++e"ti$n" C$ncu"i$n:

.INDINGS

ACC:

n the chart, movin% avera%e short term & lon% term/ )as fluctuatin% month

by month. t )as risin% from :uly to October & fallin% from november to

:anuary.

Durin% the month of 'pril the shares )ere overbou%ht, so it is the ri%ht time to

sell the share.

Durin% the month of :anuary the shares )ere oversold, so it is ri%ht time to

buy the share

GRASI*:

The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months, sho)s t sho)s risin% trend

from December to October. t sho)s fallin% trend from @ovember to :anuary.

The :anuary month )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.

The !arch month )as over sold re%ion, the investor can buy the scri.


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ULTRATECH:

The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months )as risin% from 'pril to

December. t )as fallin% from October to :anuary.

The 'pril !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.

The :anuary month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.

BIRLA SU)ER:


December. t )as fallin% from !ay to December.

The December !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.

The #eptember month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.

A*BUFA:


December. t )as fallin% from !ay to December.

The 'u%ust !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.

The :une month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. !

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SUGGESTIONS

t is very difficult for an investor to select any scrip for investment in stock

market. Before investin%, the investor should %o for a detailed study of the

scrip, )hich includesE "undamental analysis of the company & its return for

past K years.

ACC:

o

'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% fromOctober to :anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in :une #o, in

future the investor is been advised to sell the share.

o 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, the *# lies bet)een ?> &

re%ion & is been in decreasin% trend. There fore in future the prices

may come do)n very drastically, so investor is been advised to sell the

share.

GRASI*:o 'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from

October to :anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in :une so, in


o 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, the *# lies bet)een NK &

?; re%ion & is been in increasin% trend. There fore in future the prices

may come up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the

share.

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. "

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ULTRATECH:

o 'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from

October to :anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in une #o, in


o 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, the *# lies bet)een NF &

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CONCLUSION

n ndian scenario the investments are spread over Bank Deposits, #avin%s 0ertificate,

Post Office, 2$uity !arkets and the latest !utual "und. #ince !utual "unds are

subect to market risk the investor take help of advisory services for financial

plannin% )hich helps the investor to take calculated risk. Technical analysis is a %ood

indicator that sho)s the trend movement as )ell as the varyin% de%ree of movin%

avera%e movement, *ate of chan%e and *elative stren%th indicates. Technical analysis

may be used for more than supplement of fundamental analysis.

The recent correction in the stock market has left many investors unsettled. t is $uite

common to see many investors movin% to side lines every time the market turns

volatile or corrects itself. t is sure as the market starts rallyin% a%ain, some of them

)ill move back $uickly but )ould be )illin% to move out even more $uickly at the

next si%n of do)nside volatility.

Technical analysis can offer %reat insi%ht, but if used improperly, they can alsoproduce false si%nals. +hile trend lines have become a very popular aspect of

technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishin%, analyzin%, and

confirmin% a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve

merely as a )arnin% that a chan%e in trend may be very useful.

n this proect, the market is fallin% tremendously in the month of :une & :uly. #o, the

tools )hich )ere used also sho)in% the do)n)ard trend. +e can predict that the

investor can sell the share.

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. !$

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BIBLIOGRA)HY:

Re&erence B$$%"3

#ecurity 'nalysis & Portfolio !ana%ement

--By. Punithavathy Pandian.

nvestment 'nalysis and Portfolio !ana%ement

--By. Prasanna 0handra

#ecurity 'nalysis & Portfolio !ana%ement

--By. "ischer and :ordan

"inancial !ana%ement--By. !. . han & P. . :ain

0e-"ite"3

))).nseindia.com

))).stockcharts.com

))).)ikipedia.com

))).acclimited.com

))).%rasim.com

))).ultratechcement.com

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. !1
http://www.wikipedia.com/http://www.acclimited.com/http://www.grasim.com/http://www.wikipedia.com/http://www.acclimited.com/http://www.grasim.com/

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