50th Omnibus Poll Results - Fall 2012

7/31/2019 50th Omnibus Poll Results - Fall 2012

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Pan Atlantic SMS Grou Re orted as

Most Accurate Pollster on Maines

2010 Gubernatorial Race

Maines Best Pollster 2008

THEBENCHMARKOFMAINEPUBLICOPINION

6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine 04101 207-871-8622

www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com


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Table of Contents

The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

2

I. Background..... 3

II. Methodology...... 4

III. Poll Results

National Election / Public Policy Questions...... 7

Maine Election / Public Policy Questions 35

. ..


2

Pan Atlantic SMS Group Reported as Most Accurate

Pollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race


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I. Back round


Pan Atlantic SMS Group is a Maine based, independent marketing research and consulting firm which isP

3

.

This Omnibus Poll is the 50th poll in a series conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on public policy,

business, economic, technology, and lifestyle issues. Because we have conducted this poll on a frequentGRO

basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking

on a range of important issues.

Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll must identify theIC

SM

source of information.

All questions reported on herein are non-proprietary and were not commissioned by any party other

than Pan Atlantic SMS Grou .ATLAN

For further information, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, at (207)

871-8622 or by email at [email protected].

PAN





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II. Methodolo


The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll was conducted between September 24th and September 28th,

4

P. .

A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 Maine residents (likely voters) was interviewed by

telephone. Each of Maines two Congressional Districts are represented by approximately half of the sample. ItGRO

s ou e no e a e samp e s ze s more m e or eac o e wo ongress ona s r c races. e survey

was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:

Are ages 18 and olderIC

SM

, , ,

Are registered to vote in Maine

Voted in the election for Maines Governor in 2010

Are likely, very likely, or certain that they will vote in the upcoming election on November 6 th,ATLAN

2012

This independent poll was conducted by telephone, at our in-house interviewing center, by Pan Atlantics team of

experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources were used.

PAN





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II. Methodolo


5

s ou e no e a gures may no a ways equa . percen ue o e roun ng o ec ma s.

The sample was stratified statewide based on the 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing data. The

sample size has statistical significance of 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means thatGROU

if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey

within the 4.9 percent margin of error.

The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, politicalCSMS

party affiliation, age, and gender. The margins of error for specific sub-samples are higher than the 4.9

percent margin of error for the entire sample.

TLANTI

, ,

time and do not seek to project final election results.

PAN





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III. PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP OMNIBUS POLL RESULTS6





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Nationa E ection Pu ic Po icy uestions7





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If the Presidential Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?

NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS


8

[Asked of those who answered that they were Undecided]


[Options were read and rotated; N=400]

3.5%

40%

50%

60%

36.8%

50.8%

47.3%

33.5%

3.3%

10%

20%

30%

0.5% 0.5% 1.0%.0.3% 0.3%

0%

BarackObama

[Democrat,

incumbent]

MittRomney

[Republican]

GaryJohnson

[Libertarian]

JillStein[GreenParty] Other Undecided/Refused





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9



.Election were held tomorrow, with a further 3.5% leaning towards voting for Obama(50.8% total). About a third of respondents (33.5%) would vote for Mitt Romney (R) if thePresidential Election were tomorrow, while another 3.3% are leaning towards voting forRomney (36.8% total).

Thus President Obama has a 14.0 percentage point margin over Mitt Romney.

Ten percent (10.0%) of respondents are undecided / did not provide a response.





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[By Political Party

10



a on

86.0% 9.6%0.7%

3.7%Democrat

,

49.6%

13.9%

33.6%

72.1%

2.9%

3.3%

13.9%

10.7%

Independent

Republican

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Barack Obama [Democrat, incumbent] Mitt Romney [Republican] Other Undecided / Refused





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[By Political Party

11



a on

.towards voting for Barack Obama (D) if the Presidential Election were held tomorrow. Incontrast, only 13.9% of Republicans surveyed reported that they would vote / lean towardsvoting for Obama if the election were held tomorrow. About seven in ten respondingRepublicans (72.1%) indicated that they would vote / lean towards voting for Mitt Romney

, . . .

Half (49.6%) of responding Independents would vote / lean towards voting for Barack Obama(D) if the Presidential Election were held tomorrow, while a third (33.6%) would vote / leantowards voting for Mitt Romney (R).

Fourteen percent (13.9%) of Independent respondents, eleven percent (10.7%) ofRepublican respondents, and four percent (3.7%) of Democratic respondents are undecided/ did not provide a response.





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[By Congressional

12

[Options were rotated; N=400]


s r c an en er

49.0%

52.5%

38.1%

35.4%

1.0%

4.0%

11.9%

8.1%

Con ressional District 2

Congressional District 1

,- By Congressional District and Gender

52.5% 33.8% 3.4% 10.3%Females

49.0% 39.8% 1.5% 9.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Males

Barack Obama [Democrat, incumbent] Mitt Romney [Republican] Other Undecided / Refused





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[By Congressional

13



s r c an en er

District or by gender:

The percentage of respondents in Congressional District 1 and Congressional District 2 whowould vote / lean towards voting for Barack Obama (D) is similar (52.5% vs. 49.0%). Thepercen ages vo ng ean ng owar s vo ng or omney are a so s m ar n e woCongressional Districts (35.4% for CD1 vs. 38.1% for CD2).

The percentages of female and male respondents voting / leaning towards voting forBarack Obama (D) are also similar (52.5% vs. 49.0%), as are the percentages of femalean ma e respon ents vot ng ean ng towar s vot ng or tt omney . vs.39.8%).





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Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is


NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS President Obamas Approval Rating

Benchmarked


Approval of the Way President Obama

14

handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?

Approval of the Way President Obama is

Strongly ,40%

50%

60%

Strongly ,19.5%

40%

50%

60%.

44.8%

53.3%

.

48.8%48.6%

Somewhat ,

Strongly,29.8%

.

20%

30%

Somewhat ,

Strongly,32.0%

20%

30%

Somewhat ,18.8%

.

0%

10%

Disapproveoverall Approveoverall Don'tknow/Not

familiar

Somewhat ,12.8%

.

0%

10%

Disapproveoverall Approveoverall Don'tknow/Refused

2.8%2.0%





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Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is



Benchmarked

[Options were rotated; N=400]15

handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?

More than half (53.3%) of respondents strongly (19.5%) or somewhat approve

(33.8%) of the way President Obama is handling his job, while a little less than half(44.8%) strongly (32.0%) or somewhat disapprove (12.8%) of how he is doing hisjob.

President Obama has a net positive rating of +8.5%.

Overall, these results are reasonably similar to those obtained in Pan Atlantic SMS Groups ,

percentage of respondents strongly or somewhat approving of Obamas jobperformance, from 48.8% to 53.3% (an increase of 4.5 percentage points).





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Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is [By Political Party

16

Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job - By Political Party


handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat? a on

62.3%

12.5%

18.9%

4.4%

15.6%

45.6%

1.6%

37.5%

1.6%Republican

Democrat

24.8% 15.3% 38.7% 17.5% 3.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Independent

Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove Somewhat approve Strongly approve Don't know / Refused

Over eight in ten responding Democrats (83.1%) indicated that they strongly orsomewhat approve of how President Obama is handling his job. In contrast, only 17.2%of Republicans surveyed reported that they strongly or somewhat approve of PresidentObamas erformance.


Over half of Independent respondents (56.2%) strongly or somewhat approve of the wayPresident Obama is handling his job.




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Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is [By Congressional

17

Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job - By Congressional District and


handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat? s r c an en er

32.7%

31.3%

10.4%

15.2%

36.1%

31.3%

18.8%

20.2%

2.0%

2.0%



31.6%

32.4%

16.3%

9.3%

33.7%

33.8%

16.3%

22.5%

2.0%

2.0%

Male

Female

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Approval levels for the way President Obama is handling his job are similar in each of the two


Congressional Districts (51.5 in CD1 and 55.0 in CD2). This is a change from November 2011,when 54.1% of respondents from Congressional District 1 and only 43.7% of respondents fromCongressional District 2 strongly or somewhat approved of Obamas job performance.




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In general, do you favor or oppose the healthcare reform bill



18

signed by President Obama?

In general, do you favor or oppose the healthcare Respondents are fairly split with regard to

[Order of favor and oppose in question rotated; Options read and rotated; N=400]

Dont know /Refused,

reform bill signed by President Obama?w e er or no ey avor or oppose ehealthcare reform bill signed by President

Obama, with 46.5% favoring it and 41.3%opposing it.

Favor, 46.5%

12.3% .answered dont know or did notprovide a response.

Respondents ages 55 and older, respondents

Oppose,41.3%

,from Congressional District 1, andDemocratic respondents are more likely tofavor the healthcare reform bill signed byPresident Obama than their counterparts.

Male respondents, respondents 18 to 54years old, respondents with less than acollege degree, respondents with annualhousehold incomes under $75,000,respondents from Congressional DistrictMaines Best Pollster 20082, and Republican respondents are morelikely to oppose the bill than their

counterparts.Pan Atlantic SMS Group Reported as Most AccuratePollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race


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If Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?



19




4.8%

40%

50%

60%50.3%

45.5%

22.8%

10.8% 0.3% 13.8%

1.0%

1.3%10%

20%

30% .

12.1%

AngusKing[Independent] CharlieSummers

[Republican]

CynthiaDill[Democrat] Other Undecided/Refused

Would vote for Are leaning towards voting for





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20



About half of respondents (45.5%) say they would vote for Angus King (I) if Maines US

Senate Election were held tomorrow, with another 4.8% leaning towards voting for him(50.3% total). About a quarter of respondents (22.8%) would vote for Charlie Summers (R)if Maines US Senate Election were tomorrow, with another 1.0% leaning towards voting

towards voting for her (12.1% total).

Fourteen percent (13.8%) of respondents are undecided / did not provide a response as to

who they would vote for if Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow.





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NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONSIf Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?

[By Political Party

21 [Options were read and rotated; N=400]


21.3% 58.8% 5.9% 14.0%Democrat

If Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? By Political Party

9.5%

4.1%

56.9%

33.6%

20.4%

48.4% 0.8%

13.1%

13.1%

Independent

Republican

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Cynthia Dill [Democrat] Angus King [Independent] Charlie Summers [Republican] Other Undecided / Refused





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[By Political Party

22 [Options were read and rotated; N=400]


Both responding Democrats and Independents tend to favor Angus King (I) heavily in theMaine US Senate Election race: when asked who they would vote for if Maines US SenateElection were held tomorrow, almost six in ten responding Democrats (58.8%) andIndependents (56.9%) would vote for / lean towards voting for Angus King (I). A fifth ofresponding Democrats (21.3%) would vote / lean towards voting for Cynthia Dill (D), and a fifthof responding Independents (20.4%) would vote lean towards voting for Charlie Summers (R).

Republican respondents are more likely to support Charlie Summers (R), with roughly half

(48.4%) of Republican respondents indicating that they would vote / lean towards votingfor Summers. However, Angus King (I) has the support of one third (33.6%) of Republicans.

Thirteen percent (13.1%) of Independent respondents, thirteen percent (13.1%) of Republicanrespondents, and fourteen percent (14.0%) of Democratic respondents are undecided / did notprovide a response.





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[By Congressional

23




10.4%

13.6%

50.0%

50.5%

21.8%

25.8% 0.5%

17.8%

9.6%



- By Congressional District and Gender

12.7% 54.4% 18.6% 14.2%Females

11.2% 45.9% 29.1% 0.5% 13.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Males

Cynthia Dill [Democrat] Angus King [Independent] Charlie Summers [Republican] Other Undecided / Refused





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[By Congressional

24 [Options were rotated; N=400]


Overall, the percentage of respondents voting leaning towards voting for each of the USSenate candidates does not vary significantly between the two Congressional Districts;however, respondents in Congressional District 2 are more likely to be undecided / to nothave provided a response than respondents in Congressional District 1 (17.8% vs. 9.6%).

Female respondents are more likely to vote for Angus King (I) if Maines US Senate Electionwere held tomorrow than males (54.4% vs. 45.9%). Though a majority of male voters planto vote for King, they are more likely than their female counterparts to vote for Summers

(29.1% vs. 18.6%).





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Mainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District the district in

which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?



25

Which of the US House of Representatives candidates are you leaning towards voting for?[Asked of those who answered that they were Undecided]

If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you

[Options were read and rotated; N=198*]

4.0%

30%

40%

50%

60%

vote?*56.5%

24.2%

.

22.7%0.5% 18.7%

1.5%

0%

10%

20%

ChelliePingree

[Democrat,

incumbentJonathan

Courtney

[Republican] Other Undecided

/Refused


*Note: The mar in of error for this uestion is a roximatel 7.0%.





26/51

Mainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District the district in




26



Over half of respondents (52.5%) would vote for Chellie Pingree (D) if the election for

Maines 1st

Congressional Districts US Representative were held tomorrow, with another4.0% leaning towards voting for her (56.5% total).

.Maines 1st Congressional Districts US Representative were held tomorrow, with another 1.5%leaning towards voting for him (24.2% total).

One fifth (18.7%) of respondents are undecided / did not provide a response as to who they .





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NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONSMainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 1st

Congressional District the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? [By Political Party

27

st *



a on

1.5% 87.9% 1.5% 9.1%Democrat

,

By Political Party

23.3%

54.5%

52.1%

29.1%

24.7%

16.4%

Independent

Republican

Jonathan Courtney [Republican] Chellie Pingree [Democrat, incumbent] Other Undecided / Refused

*Note: The margin of error for this question is approximately 7.0%.





28/51


NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONSMainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 1st

Congressional District the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? [By Political Party

28 [Options were read and rotated; N=198*]


a on

Almost nine in ten (87.9 ) Democratic respondents would vote lean towards voting forChellie Pingree (D). Support for Pingree is also high amongst Independents: over half(52.1%) would vote / lean towards voting for her, while a quarter (23.3%) would vote /lean towards voting for Jonathan Courtney (R).

Over half (54.5%) of Republican respondents would vote for Jonathan Courtney (R).However, almost a third (29.1%) would vote for Chellie Pingree (D).

A quarter (24.7%) of Independent respondents, sixteen percent (16.4%) of Republicanres ondents and nine ercent 9.1 of Democratic res ondents are undecided did notprovide a response as to who they would vote for if the election for Maines 1st CongressionalDistrict were held tomorrow.





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NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONSMainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District

the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?[By

Gender

29

If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?*

[Options were rotated; N=198*]


24.6% 57.6% 17.8%Females

- By Gender

23.8% 55.0% 1.3% 20.0%Males

st

Jonathan Courtney [Republican] Chellie Pingree [Democrat, incumbent] Other Undecided / Refused


Congressional District were tomorrow.

In addition, similar percentages are undecided / did not provide a response.




h


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Mainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District the district in




30


If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom


1.5%

40%

50%

60%

wou you vote

32.2%

52.0%

50.5%

28.7%15.3%

.

0.5%

0%

10%

20%

MikeMichaud Democrat KevinRa e Re ublican Other Undecided Refused

incumbent]






Th 50th P A l i SMS G O ib P ll


31/51

Mainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District the district in




31



About a half of respondents (50.5 ) would vote for Mike Michaud (D) if the election forMaines 2nd Congressional Districts US Representative were held tomorrow, with another1.5% leaning towards voting for Michaud (52.0% total).

About three in ten respondents (28.7%) would vote for Kevin Raye (R) if the election forMaines 2nd Congressional Districts US Representative were held tomorrow, with another3.5% leaning towards voting for Raye (32.2% total).

Fifteen percent (15.3%) of respondents are undecided / did not provide a response as towho the would vote for if the election for Maines 2nd Con ressional District were heldtomorrow.




Th 50th P Atl ti SMS G O ib P ll


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NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONSMainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional

District the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?[By Political Party

Affiliation

32

If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?*



28.4%

77.1%

61.2%

7.1%

10.4%

15.7%

Re ublican

Democrat

50.0% 29.7% 1.6% 18.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Independent

Mike Michaud [Democrat, incumbent] Kevin Raye [Republican] Other Undecided / Refused







33/51


NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONSMainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional

District the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?[By Political Party

Affiliation

33



.Mike Michaud (D). Support for Michaud is also high amongst Independents: half (50.0%)

would vote / lean towards voting for Mike Michaud (D), while three in ten (29.7%) wouldvote / lean towards voting for Kevin Raye (R).

x n en . epu can respon en s wou vo e or ev n aye . owever, a mosthree in ten (28.4%) would vote for Mike Michaud (D).

Nineteen percent (18.8%) of Independent respondents, sixteen percent (15.7%) of Democratic

respondents, and ten percent (10.4%) of Republican respondents are undecided / did notprovi e a response as to w o t ey wou vote or i t e e ection or aine s n ongressionaDistrict were held tomorrow.






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NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONSMainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District

the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?[By

Gender

34

If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?*

[Options were rotated; N=202*]


54.7% 23.3% 1.2% 20.9%Females

- By Gender

50.0% 38.8% 11.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Males

Mike Michaud [Democrat, incumbent] Kevin Raye [Republican] Other Undecided / Refused

A fairly similar percentage of female respondents would vote / lean towards voting for MikeMichaud (D) as male respondents (54.7% vs. 50.0%).


However, male respondents would be more likely to vote for Kevin Raye (R) than femalerespondents (38.8% vs. 23.3%), and female respondents are more likely to be undecided / tohave not provided a response than their male counterparts (20.9% vs. 11.2%).






35/51

The 50 Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

a ne u c o cy uest ons35






36/51

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party


MAINE ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS

36

for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? in the Maine Senate?

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another


32.3% 28.3%26.0%

30.0% 29.8%25.0%

25%

30%35%

party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? / in the Maine Senate?

10.8%

2.8%

12.5%

2.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

DemocraticCandidate RepublicanCandidate Independent

Candidate

BestCandidate Not

basedonparty

Undecided Refused

Maine House of Representatives Maine Senate






37/51

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party



37

for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? in the Maine Senate?


The percentage of respondents proposing to vote for a Democratic candidate for theirrepresentative in the Maine House of Representatives is fairly similar to the percentage of

respondents voting for a Republican candidate (32.3% vs. 28.3%). Likewise, the percentageof respondents who plan to vote for a Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race isvery similar to the percentage of respondents voting for a Republican candidate (30.0% vs.29.8%).

Roughly one in ten respondents will vote for an Independent candidate for theirrepresentative in the Maine House of Representatives (10.8%) and the Maine Senate(12.5%), while a quarter of the sample is undecided / did not provide a response (26.0% forthe Maine House of Representatives and 25.0% for the Maine Senate).

These results indicate a very tight match up for control of each of Maines two legislativebranches.






38/51

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of

p

MAINE ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS[By Congressional

38

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for


another party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? , ,and Age]

30.2%34.3%

30.2%26.3%

12.4%9.1%

2.5%3.0%

24.8%27.3%

Congressional District 2Congressional District 1

your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? By Congressional District, Gender, &Age

27.8%

25.0%

31.1%

33.3%

31.9%

30.8%

32.7%

24.0%

11.1%

13.5%

11.2%

10.3%

2.8%

3.8%

2.0%

3.4%

26.4%

26.9%

23.0%

28.9%

35 to 54 year olds

18 to 34 year olds

Males

Females

42.4% 21.2% 9.1% 2.3% 25.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

55 or older

Democratic Republican Independent Best candidate / Not based on party Undecided / Refused






39/51

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of

p



another party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives?, ,

and Age]

Respondents from the two Congressional Districts responded similarly to this question.

Male respondents are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate for their representativein the Maine House of Representatives than female respondents (32.7% vs. 24.0%), whilefemale respondents are more likely to be undecided / have not provided a response (28.9%vs. 23.0%).

Respondents 55 and older are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for theirrepresentative in the Maine House of Representatives than their counterparts

(42.4% vs.27.8 of 35 to 54 ear olds and 25.0 of 18 to 34 ear olds while res ondents 18 to 34and 35 to 54 are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate (30.8% and 31.9% vs. 21.2%of respondents 55 and older).


Pan Atlantic SMS Group Reported as Most AccuratePollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race



40/51

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or


40

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for


member of another party for your representative in the Maine Senate?, ,

Age]

28.7%31.3%

29.7%29.8%

12.9%12.1%

2.5%3.0%

26.2%23.7%

Congressional District 2Congressional District 1

your representative in the Maine Senate? By Congressional District, Gender, & Age

24.5%

28.8%

28.1%

31.9%

35.2%

23.1%

34.2%

25.5%

13.4%

15.4%

12.8%

12.3%

2.8%

3.8%

2.0%

3.4%

24.1%

28.8%

23.0%

27.0%

35 to 54 ear olds

18 to 34 year olds

Males

Females

39.4% 23.5% 9.8% 2.3% 25.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

55 or older

Democratic Republican Independent Best candidate / Not based on party Undecided / Refused





41/51

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or



member of another party for your representative in the Maine Senate?, ,

Age]

Respondents from the two Congressional Districts responded similarly to this question.

As with the Maine House of Representatives, male respondents are more likely to vote for aRepublican candidate for their representative in the Maine Senate than female respondents34.2% vs. 25.5%).

Respondents 55 and older are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for theirrepresentative in the Maine Senate than their counterparts (39.4% vs. 24.5% of 35 to 54 yearolds and 28.8% of 18 to 34 year olds). Respondents 35 to 54 are more likely to vote for aRe ublican candidate than their counter arts 35.2 vs. 23.1 of 18 to 34 ear olds and 23.5of respondents 55 and older).





42/51

Governor Paul LePage has been in office for nearly two years. Do you approve



Approval of Job Performance of

42

or isapprove of is jo performance Is t at strong y, or somew at

Approval of Job Performance of Governor

40%

50%

60%

Stron l

40%

50%

60% .

51.8%

43.8%

.

43.3%

50.3%

Somewhat ,24.8%

Strongly,34.8%

,18.5%

10%

20%

30%

Somewhat ,26.5%

rong y,36.8%

17.3%

20%

30%

,15.5%

0%Disapproveoverall Approveoverall Don'tknow/Not

familiar

,15.0%

0%Disapproveoverall Approveoverall Don'tknow/Refused

Fort -four ercent 43.8 stron l 17.3 or somewhat a rove 26.5 of Governor LePa es

6.5%4.5%

performance, while about half (51.8%) of respondents strongly (36.8%) or somewhat disapprove (15.0%)of his performance.

These results are very similar to those obtained in Pan Atlantic SMS Groups Omnibus Poll of November 2011.





43/51

Governor Paul LePage has been in office for nearly two years.


[By Political Party

43

Approval of Governor LePages Job Performance - By Political Party

Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly, or somewhat?


Affiliation]

15.6%

61.0%

13.1%

14.7%

37.7%

15.4%

31.1%

5.9%

2.5%

2.9%

Republican

Democrat

32.1% 17.5% 27.0% 16.1% 7.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Independent


One fifth of responding Democrats (21.3%) indicated that they somewhat or stronglyapprove of Governor LePages performance to date. In contrast, 68.9% of Republicans surveyed

Forty three percent of Independent respondents (43.1%) somewhat or strongly approve ofGovernor LePages job performance.





44/51

Governor Paul LePage has been in office for nearly two years. Do you approve


[By Congressional

44

or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly, or somewhat?

Approval of Governor LePages Job Performance - By Congressional District and Gender


District and Gender]

34.7%

38.9%

13.9%

16.2%

27.7%

25.3%

19.3%

15.2%

4.5%

4.5%

CongressionalDistrict 2

Congressional

District 1

31.6%

41.7%

15.3%

14.7%

27.6%

25.5%

19.4%

15.2%

6.1%

2.9%

Male

Female

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


ema es . an respon en s res ng n ongress ona s r c . are more e y

than their male and Congressional District 2 counterparts to strongly or somewhatdisapprove of Governor LePages job performance (males: 46.9%, Congressional District 2:48.5%).





45/51

Which of the following best describes your personal position on the issue of same sex


45

marriage? [Question was asked prior to the question on referendum voting intentions]

Which of the following best describes your personal position on the issue of same sex


24.3%

47.3%

OPPOSEsamesexmarriagebutFAVORcivilunions

SUPPORTBOTHsamesexmarriageandcivilunions

40.8%

5.0%

7.0%

16.5%

Undecided/Refused

OPPOSEsamesexmarriageformychurchbutnotforothers

OPPOSEBOTHsamesexmarriageandcivilunions

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

About half (47.3%) of respondents say that they support both same-sex marriage and civilunions. Another uarter (24.3%) o ose same-sex marria e but favor civil unions, whileseventeen percent (16.5%) oppose both same-sex marriage and civil unions, and seven percent(7.0%) oppose same-sex marriage for their church but not for others (total of 47.8%). Five percent(5.0%) are undecided / did not provide a response.






46/51

One of the questions on Maines 2012 ballot refers to the issue of same-sex marriage. Please tell me how you plan to


46

.

the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?

Do you want to allow the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?


55.3%38.5%

1.3%

0.5%

20%

40%

60%.

39.0%

4.5%0%

Yes No Undecided/Refused

Would vote Are leaning towards voting

A little over half 56.6 of res ondents indicated that the would vote 55.3 or lean towardsvoting (1.3%) in favor of allowing the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sexcouples. Four in ten (39.0%) respondents would vote against (38.5%) or lean towards voting against(0.5%) this measure, and five percent (4.5%) are undecided / did not provide a response.

, ,

respondents from Congressional District 1 are more likely to be in favor of legalizing same-sexmarriage than their counterparts (CD1: 63.6% voting in favor and 32.0% voting against vs. CD2:48.3% voting in favor and 45.3% voting against).






47/51

One of the questions on Maines 2012 ballot refers to the issue of same-sex marriage. Please tell me how you plan to


47

.

the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?[Options were read and rotated; N=400]

- -

It should be noted that some of those who indicated in the first question on this issue thatthey oppose same-sex marriage subsequently said that they would vote for the proposedreferendum. These account for 4% of the sample.

Secondly, a further group of those who said that they oppose same-sex marriage for theirchurch but not for others also said that they would vote for the referendum proposal. These

account for a further 4.25% of the total sample.

This indicates that the percentage of those who say they plan to vote for same-sex marriagemay well be inflated and in all likelihood is not at the level recorded in the straight up pollingquestion. This suggests a much closer race on this issue than straight up polling by several

ollin firms indicates.





48/51

IV. POLL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA48





49/51

IV. Poll Demo ra hic Data

49

INCOME LEVELS %Under $35,000 19%

$35,000 to $50,000 13%

$50,000 to $75,000 21%

GENDER %

Females 51%

Males 49% , ,

$100,000 + 22%

Dont know/ Refused 12%





50/51

IV. Poll Demo ra hic Data

50

POLITICAL AFFILIATION %

emocrats

Republicans 31%

Independents / Unenrolled 34%

AGE

18-34 13%

35-54 54%Other 1%

Dont know/ Refused 1%

55+ 33%




51/51

6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine

www.pana an csmsgroup.com

207.871.8622



Documents

50th Omnibus Poll Results - Fall 2012