9
May 23, 2017 ARC Energy Charts 1 www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved. 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 May-16 Jul-16 Sep -16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 May-16 Jul-16 Sep -16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Indexed to 12 Months Ago Shanghai Composite S&P/TSX Composite Dow Jones 80 100 120 140 160 May-16 Jul-16 Sep -16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Indexed to 12 Months Ago Philadelphia Service I ndex PSAC Cana dian In dex Spot WTI Crude $US/B Edmonton Light $US/B Spot Henry Hub $US/MMBtu Spot AECO $Cdn/GJ Spot AECO Basis $US/MMBtu Currency $US/$Cdn Please see Advisories and Disclaimers at the end of the publication for important cautionary advisory and disclaimer language 46.88 3.09 2.83 0.88 0.7400 Performance of Oil and Gas Equities Year-to-Date Daily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History Oil & Gas Service Equities Year-to-Date Daily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History Broad Equity Markets Year-to-Date Daily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History Canadian Currency Exchange Daily Close Values; Rolling 24-Month History 1 2 3 4 $0.65 $0.70 $0.75 $0.80 $0.85 $0.90 May-15 Sep -15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep -16 Jan-17 May-17 $US/$Cdn Chart Watch 50.33 Visit www.arcenergyinstitute.com for more information on this publication and the Institute ARC Energy Charts 1 5 25 37 40 á Broad market indices are one the many vital signs measuring the health of the economy. Energy demand is a function of economic health. Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp. Performance of Canadian and US oil & gas equities are compared against each other. Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp. The performance of Canadian oil and gas service equities are plotted in tandem with the corresponding US index. Source: Bloomberg, Petroleum Services Association of Canada Much of Canada’s oil and gas production is sold in US dollars. As such, the exchange rate significantly impacts corporate revenues and profits. Source: Bloomberg á Equities fell sharply mid-week WTI finished the week up $2.57/B Henry Hub net longs rose to a new record high The gas storage glut contracted last week The Canadian rig count rose by 5 last week á á á á The US dollar sold off along with equities last week in... ...the wake of increased US political uncertainty. Halliburton expects to raise prices by at least 10% and... ...in some cases 20% (or more) this year. US equities fell sharply on Wednesday following... ...reports of a memo from former FBI Director... ...James Comey suggesting Trump asked him to stop the... ...investigation of Michael Flynn. The CAD was further boosted by rising oil prices.

50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

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Page 1: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 1www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17

ARC Junior E&P Inde x

S&P 500 E&P

S&P/TSX E& P Index

Indexed to 12 Months Ago

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17

Indexed to 12 Months Ago

Shanghai Composite

S&P/TSX Composite

Dow Jones

80

100

120

140

160

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17

Indexed to 12 Months Ago

Philadelphia Service I ndex

PSAC Cana dian In dex

Spot WTI Crude

$US/B

Edmonton Light

$US/B

Spot Henry Hub

$US/MMBtu

Spot AECO

$Cdn/GJ

Spot AECO Basis

$US/MMBtu

Currency

$US/$Cdn

Please see Advisories and Disclaimers at the end of the publication for important cautionary advisory and disclaimer language

46.88 3.09 2.83 0.88 0.7400

Performance of Oil and Gas Equities Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History

Oil & Gas Service Equities Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History

Broad Equity Markets Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History

Canadian Currency ExchangeDaily Close Values; Rolling 24-Month History

1 2

3 4

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17

$US/$Cdn

Chart Watch

50.33

Visit www.arcenergyinstitute.com for more

information on this publication and the Institute

ARC Energy Charts

1

5

25

37

40

á

Broad market indices are one the many vital signs measuring the health of the economy. Energy demand is a function of economic health.

Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.

Performance of Canadian and US oil & gas equities are compared against each other.

Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.

The performance of Canadian oil and gas service equities are plotted in tandem with the corresponding US index.

Source: Bloomberg, Petroleum Services Association of Canada

Much of Canada’s oil and gas production is sold in US dollars. As such, the exchange rate significantly impacts corporate revenues and profits.

Source: Bloomberg

á

Equities fell sharply mid-week

WTI finished the week up $2.57/B

Henry Hub net longs rose to a new record high

The gas storage glut contracted last week

The Canadian rig count rose by 5 last week

á

á á

á

The US dollar sold off along with equities last week in...

...the wake of increased US political uncertainty.

Halliburton expects to raise prices by at least 10% and...

...in some cases 20% (or more) this year.

US equities fell sharply on Wednesday following...

...reports of a memo from former FBI Director...

...James Comey suggesting Trump asked him to stop the...

...investigation of Michael Flynn.

The CAD was further boosted by rising oil prices.

Page 2: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 2www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MMB/dOffshore O il Production

Onshore O il Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

10

20

30

40

50

60

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17

WTI D iff

WTI

WTI ($US/B) WTI Dif f to Brent ($US/B)

WTI Crude Oil Price and Differential to BrentNear-Month WTI and Brent Differential; Rolling 12-Month History

Canadian Heavy Oil Price Differential to WTI Western Canadian Select (WCS) Differential; Rolling 12-Month History

6

7 8

9 10

5

0

5

10

15

20

10

20

30

40

50

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17

WCS Diff.

WCS

WCS ($US/B) WCS Dif f to WTI ($US/B)

46

48

50

52

54

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

WTI $US/B 2017

2018

2019

US Crude Oil FuturesWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) 2017 to 2019

Canadian Light Crude Oil Price Differential to WTIWTI and Edmonton Light differential; Rolling 12-Month History

0

1

2

3

4

5

20

30

40

50

60

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17

Edm. Light Diff.

Edmonton L ight

Edm. Light ($US/B) Edm. Light Dif f to WTI ($US/B)

Ratio of Long to Short Contracts - WTIManaged Money - Futures and Options

Total US Oil ProductionMonthly; 2010 to Present

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17

Long:Short

The differential should reflect the transportation cost from Alberta to Cushing. Greater discounts can result from infrastructure or refinery outages.

Source: Bloomberg

North American crude oil prices can sometimes disconnect from global prices depending on regional supply and demand dynamics.

Source: Bloomberg

Forward prices for WTI are plotted against months in the calendar year. Years are distinguished by color and symbol coding.

Source: Bloomberg

Canadian heavy crude oil differentials are becoming less volatile with growing access to new markets via pipeline and rail.

Source: Bloomberg

This represents the relative bullishness of money managers on the price of oil in the United States.

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

The advancement of drilling and completion methods boosted US crude oil production, prior to the downturn in prices.

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Crude Oil

WTI finished the week up by $2.57/B, a gain of 5.4%.

The long:short ratio in WTI contracts among money...

The WCS discount to WTI remains narrow – under $10/B.

Oil sands maintenance is constraining supply at...

...Suncor Firebag and MEG Christina Lake.

According to the EIA, US produc-tion in Feb was 9.03 MMB/d.

The Edmonton Light differen-tial widened to $3.55/B.

Differentials are returning to normal as production...

The market is focused on the May 25th OPEC meeting.

...ramps back up at the Syncrude upgrader.

...managers fell again, to the lowest level since the…

This is a gain of 0.46 MMB/d from the Sept 2016 low.

...November OPEC meeting.

Page 3: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 3www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17

MMB/d Crude Oil

Refined Products

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MMB/d

Global Oil Supply-Demand Balance Quarterly; 2010 to Present

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17

MMB/d

OPEC Oil Production Monthly; Rolling 60-Month History

Alberta Oil Production

Monthly; Conventional and Oil Sands

16

11 12

13 14

15 US Weekly Crude Oil Imports from CanadaPipeline, Tanker and Barge Crude Imports; Rolling 24-Month History

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17

MMB/d

6

7

8

9

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MMB/d

US Crude Oil ImportsHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2016

2017

US Exports of Crude Oil and Refined ProductsWeekly Data; 2013 to Present

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

MMB/d

Mil

lio

ns

Upgraded Oil Sands

Non-Upgraded Oil Sands

Conventional

Oversupply

Shortfall

Most of Canada’s oil production comes from Alberta; split between oil sands and conventional production.

Source: Alberta Energy Regulator

OPEC’s production levels relative to its sustainable and spare capacity influences global crude prices.

Source: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly

Negative numbers indicate a global crude shortfall, while positive numbers indicate an oversupply.

Source: International Energy Agency

Prior to the downturn, growing domestic supply was displacing crude oil imports. Crude oil imports for the current year are in blue.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Crude oil imports from Canada are taking market share from overseas imports.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

The US exports more refined products than crude oil. If/when tight oil growth resumes, most export growth should come from crude oil exports.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Crude Oil

OPEC will meet on May 25th to discuss the continuation of... ...their

production cuts.

The IEA’s May Oil Market report revised the Q1 balance.

They’re now sho-wing a Q1 over-supply of only 0.09 MMB/d.

This is essentially a balanced market.

YTD there has been a 359 MB/d increase in US oil imports.

More than half of this increase has come from Canada.

The IEA reported that Canadian oil production in...

...March was down 70 MB/d from Feb, largely as a...

… result of Syncrude outages.

Page 4: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 4www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17

# of Oil Rigs - Total# of Oil Rigs - Play Lev el

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MMB

US Crude Oil Stocks Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

17 18

19 20

21 22

2016

2017

75

80

85

90

95

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

%

OECD Total Industry Oil StocksAmericas and Rest of OECD; 2012 to Present

20162017

US Motor Gasoline ConsumptionHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MMB/d

2017

2016

Daily NGL Prices as a % of Edmonton Light Propane & Butane Spot Prices at Edmonton, AB

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr -16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr -17

% of Edm. Light

Cond ensate

Butane (Spot)

Propa ne (Spot)

US Oil Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Horizontal Oil Rig Counts; 2014 to Present

Bakken

Total US (Right-Axis)

Permian

Eagle Ford

US Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (%)Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

US crude oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices. Stock levels for the current year are represented by the blue line.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Global oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices*Includes U.S. (~90%), Canada, Mexico and Chile.

Source: International Energy Agency

Refinery utilization rates change the supply of refined products, impacting price. Utilization for the current year is blue.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Gasoline consumption accounts for almost half of all oil use in the US. Gasoline consumption for the current year is represented by the blue line.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Tracking US oil drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of US oil supply and growth trends.

Source: Baker Hughes

Natural gas liquids have become critical contributors to producer’s cash flow. Prices are influenced by the price of oil as well as local supply and demand.

Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.

Crude Oil

US stocks drew by 1.8 MMB last week.

The US oil rig count rose for a 18th straight week; up by 8. In that time 198

rigs have been added, with 94 in the Permian.

Cana

Woodford

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

MMB

OECD Americas*

Other OECD

The surplus to last year contracted to 11.0 MMB.

Storage is still at a surplus of over 110 MMB to the 5-yr avg.

The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook projects gasoline...

...consumption in the light duty fleet dropping by 10% from...

...2015 to 2025 as improved fuel economy outweighs the...

...trend towards larger vehicles.

The IEA’s May Oil Market Report showed a reduction in...

...OECD stocks in March of 32.9 MMB.

Most of this (21.8 MMB) was outside of the Americas.

US refinery utilization last week was 93.4% versus the...

...5-year average of 89.6%. This is helping to drive down storage.

Page 5: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 5www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

May 21 Aug 19 Nov 17 Feb 15 May 16

25

27 28

26

2423 Near-Month North American Natural Gas Prices Daily Prices; Rolling 12-Month History

Henry Hub

$US/MMBtu

AECO

$C/GJ

US Natural Gas FuturesNymex (Henry Hub) 2017 to 2019

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$US/MMBtu 2017

2018

2019

Canadian Natural Gas FuturesAECO Hub (Bloomberg Estimate) 2017 to 2019

US Coal and Natural Gas Power Generation Cost

Converted to a $/MWh Equivalent

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$US/MWh

Appalachian

Coal

Henry

Hub

Global Natural Gas Prices

Japanese LNG, UK NBP, Henry Hub; Average Monthly Prices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16

$US/MMBtu

Japanese

LNG

Henry

Hub

UK NBP

Ratio of Long to Short Contracts – Henry HubManaged Money – Futures and Options

Differential

$US/MMBtu

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$C/GJ 2017

2018

2019

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17

Long:Short

Near-month prices at AECO track Henry Hub prices, the exchange rate and the cost of transportation. Local factors can also affect price.

Source: Bloomberg

Forward contract prices are plotted against months in the calendar year. Years are distinguished by color and symbol coding.

Source: Bloomberg

This represents the relative bullishness of money managers on the price of natural gas in the United States.

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

AECO forward prices mimic Henry Hub futures plus a differential

Source: Bloomberg

International natural gas prices strongly impact the economics of proposed LNG projects.

Source: Bloomberg, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

This graph illustrates when it may be economic to begin coal-gas switching in power generation. Average power plant efficiencies are assumed.

Source: Bloomberg

Natural Gas

Henry Hub futures for the remainder of the year are...

...averaging $3.39/MMBtu, this is up $0.12 from last Friday.

Speculators con-tinue to increase bets on higher gas prices. Net Henry Hub

longs rose by over 28,000 contracts to...

Futures for the same period in 2018 are avg’ing $2.96/MMbtu.

The arbitrage between Japanese LNG and Henry Hub... ...rose to $4.92/

MMBtu. This is the widest since December 2015.

...the highest level since the start of CFTC’s record in 2006.

AECO broke through $3/GJ on May 12 for the first time...

...this year, bef-ore falling down to $2.87/GJ to close the wk.

Page 6: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 6www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf /d

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf /d

Closing Spot Prices at North American Natural Gas HubsSuperimposed on Relative Pipeline Flows

\

30 31

All prices in $US/MMBtu

Closing Spot Prices at North American Natural Gas HubsSuperimposed on Relative Physical Volumes Traded

AECO

Henry Hub

Kingsgate

Stanfield

Malin Opal

Socal

San Juan

Permian

Ventura ChicagoBoston

29

Dawn

Waddington

TGP Zone 4 -

Marcellus

US Natural Gas Exports – Excluding CanadaDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2017

2016

Pipeline Flows Out of Western CanadaDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2016

2017

The ability of gas producers to move gas out of the WCSB to eastern markets and the US is a major factor in local natural gas prices.

Source: Various Pipeline Companies

Between exports to Mexico and LNG shipments, the US is growing as a natural gas exporter. Robust US supply growth has driven this trend.

Source: Bentek

North America has an integrated natural gas market. Prices are determined by regional supply and demand, and pipeline flows.

Source: Bloomberg

Natural Gas

US$3.09

US$2.21

US$2.79

US$2.51

US$2.66

US$3.05

US$2.69

US$2.69

US$2.82

US$3.35

US$2.88

US$5.00

US$3.19

US$3.16

US$2.54

According to a new report from Platts, the landed costs...

...into Dawn for Western Canad-ian gas are about $0.40/MMBtu...

Overall US exp-orts have avera-ged 2.2 Bcf/d over last year.

...lower than for gas from the U.S.

CDN exports have been steady to start the year, but...

...we expect some declines in the summer due to maintenance.

Most of this gain (1.6 Bcf/d) has come from LNG exports.

Page 7: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 7www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

2017

2017

2016

32 33

34 35

36 37

Total US Dry Natural Gas ProductionHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2016

50

53

56

59

62

65

68

71

74

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf /d

20172013

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf /d

US Total Natural Gas DemandDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2017

US Weekly Cooling Degree DaysSource: NOAA

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tcf

Total Working Natural Gas in US StorageHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2016

2017

(350)

(300)

(250)

(200)

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf

Weekly US Natural Gas Storage Net ChangeWeekly Injection or (Withdrawals); 2009 to Current

2016

12

13

14

15

16

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf /d

Daily Western Canadian ProductionEstimated Using Major Pipeline Receipts

2016

Weekly natural gas demand is directly tied to the weather. The current year is in dark blue.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Total US demand fluctuates between 60 Bcf/d in the summer and over 100 Bcf/d in the winter. Weather is the most important driver of consumption.

Source: Bentek

US production started ramping up in late 2007 and continues to grow year over year.

Source: Bentek

This includes receipts on the TCPL, Alliance, WestCoast and TransGas pipelines.

Source: Various Pipeline Companies

Weekly gas storage reports provide a snapshot of supply and demand. Current year changes are represented by the blue line.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

The EIA reports changes in US natural gas inventories held in underground storage facilities on a weekly basis.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Natural Gas

US natural gas storage grew by only 68 Bcf last week.

US natural gas production has remained very flat so far… ...this year

averaging 70.8 Bcf/d; 2.0 Bcf/d below last year.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

CDDs

Week

2016

2017

Warmer than normal temperatures have boosted...

Gas stocks are 256 Bcf over the 5-year average.

This was well below the typical build for this time of yr.

...natural gas demand.

This is down from 358 Bcf just four weeks ago.

Page 8: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 8www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

2015

2016

2010

2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51

Week

Well Completions (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17

# of Gas Rigs - Total# of Gas Rigs - Play Lev el

38 39

40 41

42 43

Weekly Canadian Oil and Gas Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Average Rig Counts; Rolling 24-Month History

0

50

100

150

200

250

May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17

# of Rigs

Gas

Rigs

Oil

Rigs

US Gas Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Horizontal Gas Rig Counts; 2014 to Present

Marcellus

Total US (Right Axis)

Western Canadian Natural Gas Storage LevelsWeekly; Current Year and Historic Tracks

2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf

2017

Alberta Natural Gas DemandTransCanada Intra-AB Deliveries; Current Year and Historical Tracks

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf /d

2017 2016

2012

Canadian Cumulative Well CompletionsCurrent Year vs Years Prior

2016

2014

Alberta Crown Land Sales – Excluding Oil SandsYear-over-Year; Cumulative

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$ Billions

2017

2013

2012

2010

2011

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

Alberta natural gas demand has grown steadily in recent years, largely driven by new oil sands projects coming on line.

Source: TransCanada Pipelines

Canada’s natural gas storage level provides a good metric if the country is well stocked. Abnormally high or low storage can affect the basis.

Source: Bloomberg

Unlike US drilling activity, Canadian rigs are dispatched seasonally. Capital allocation by operators is driven by views of future oil and gas prices.

Source: Baker Hughes

Tracking US gas drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of US gas supply and growth trends.

Source: Baker Hughes

Land prices are an important component of F&D costs. In Alberta, sales of petroleum and natural gas rights are held every two weeks.

Source: Alberta Department of Energy

Relative year-over-year drilling activity is highlighted in this chart. Cumulative well completions for the current year are shown in blue.

Source: Daily Oil Bulletin/JWN

Natural Gas and Other Indicators

2015

2017

The US gas rig count rose by 8 last week, hitting the...

The Canadian rig count rose after 11 straight weeks of drops.

Gas rigs fell by 2 while oil rigs rose by 7.

Well completions so far this year have been tracking... ...49% above last

year; an increase of 793 wells so far.

Just under 13% of the Canadian fleet was active last week.

According to Canadian Ener-data, Western Canadian...

...storage is 69.2% full versus 84.7% a week ago.

...highest level since December 2015.

Industry paid $3.41 M in bonus bids at B.C’s last land sale.

Industry bought 3,143 hectares at an average of $1085.42/Ha.

Page 9: 50.33 46.883.092.830.880...May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 ARC Junior E&P Index S&P 500 E&P S&P/TSX E& P Index Indexed to 12 Months Ago 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

May 23, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 9www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

Estimated Capital Flow in the Canadian Oil and Gas Economy for 2017Industry Revenue, Cash Flow, Reinvestment, Drilling Activity and Production

Oil & Gas

Prices

Production

Volume

Debt,

Equity

E&P

Revenue

Service Sector

Revenue

Land,

Acquisitions

Operating

Expenditures

Reserve

Additions

Capital Flow

in the

Canadian

Oil and Gas

Economy

Royalties

& Taxes

G&A

Exploration &

Development

Cash

Flow

CAPEX

Dividends and

Distributions

Foreign Investment

and Capital Outflow

Drilling

Activity

$C 41.35 per BOE

7.1 Million

BOE/day

$C 43.8

Billion

$C 106.7

Billion

$C 42.4

Billion

5,625

Wells

Canadian Industry Statistics: Historical Data and Forecast44

Canadian Industry Metrics

Advisories and Disclaimers: This document is provided for informational purposes only and none of the information contained herein is intended to provide, nor should be

construed as, investment, financial, legal or other advice and should not be relied upon as such. Certain of the information and data contained herein has been obtained or

prepared from publicly available documents and other sources prepared by third parties, and ARC has relied upon such information and data. ARC does not audit or

independently verify such information and data and ARC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and data nor the

conclusions derived therefrom. This document has been published on the basis that ARC shall not be responsible for, and ARC hereby expressly disclaims any responsibility

or liability for, any financial or other losses or damages of any nature whatsoever arising from or otherwise relating to any use of this document.

Certain information contained herein may constitute forward-looking information and forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under the

meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements include estimates, plans, expectations, intentions, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or

other statements that are not statements of fact, including but not limited to global and industry economic conditions and policies, production, demand and commodity prices.

Although ARC believes that the assumptions underlying and expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no (and does not give any)

assurance that such assumptions and expectations will prove to have been correct. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and

other factors outside of ARC's control that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed herein. Neither ARC nor any of its affiliates undertakes any

obligation to publicly revise such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law.

Average

Price

Edmonton

Par AECO

Conv.

Liquids

Bitumen +

Synthet ic

Natural

Gas

Total

Volume

Total

Revenue

After-tax

Cash Flow

Conv. Oil

and Gas Oilsands

Reinvest

Rat io

Wells

Compl.

Avg Rig

Utiliz.

Oil

Wells

Gas

Wells

$/BOE $C/B $C/GJ

Average

M BOE/d

Average

M BOE/d

M BOE/d

(@ 6:1)

M BOE/d

(@ 6:1)

$C

millions

$C

millions

$C

millions

$C

millions x:1

# /

Year % % %

2008 68.22 102.66 7.75 1,994 1,207 2,700 5,864 145,425 83,255 36,293 18,113 0.65 16,877 41% 36% 56%

2009 42.26 66.42 3.79 1,840 1,331 2,514 5,683 89,057 36,680 22,335 11,227 0.91 8,368 25% 41% 51%

2010 48.41 77.55 3.79 1,830 1,403 2,434 5,668 101,056 43,569 35,666 17,195 1.16 12,119 40% 56% 40%

2011 55.32 95.24 3.44 1,873 1,482 2,386 5,740 115,890 53,448 40,139 22,491 1.10 12,827 52% 69% 31%

2012 50.60 86.38 2.27 1,905 1,743 2,327 5,975 111,389 48,908 39,733 27,199 1.37 11,067 44% 83% 17%

2013 55.95 93.47 3.02 2,023 1,940 2,343 6,306 128,787 54,711 43,165 30,809 1.35 11,071 42% 84% 16%

2014 61.20 95.07 4.23 2,086 2,163 2,445 6,694 149,530 71,846 46,872 33,868 1.12 11,222 45% 78% 22%

2015 35.34 57.63 2.56 1,983 2,373 2,479 6,835 88,170 24,109 30,551 22,948 2.22 5,382 24% 69% 31%

2016e 31.55 52.93 2.06 1,921 2,393 2,495 6,809 78,407 20,868 20,532 16,209 1.76 4,060 17% 70% 30%

2017e 41.35 67.33 2.67 1,868 2,655 2,548 7,070 106,723 43,789 29,131 13,242 0.97 5,625 24% 70% 30%

R einvestment D rilling Well Split

Canadian Industry Metrics

P rice P ro duct io n Vo lume C apital Inf lo w

Rachel Notley announced that the Alberta Government...

...will provide a $235 million loan to the industry...

...Orphan Well Association for the remediation of orphan wells.