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May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 1www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17
ARC Junior E&P Inde x
S&P 500 E&P
S&P/TSX E& P Index
Indexed to 12 Months Ago
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17
Indexed to 12 Months Ago
Shanghai Composite
S&P/TSX Composite
Dow Jones
80
100
120
140
160
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17
Indexed to 12 Months Ago
Philadelphia Service I ndex
PSAC Cana dian In dex
Spot WTI Crude
$US/B
Edmonton Light
$US/B
Spot Henry Hub
$US/MMBtu
Spot AECO
$Cdn/GJ
Spot AECO Basis
$US/MMBtu
Currency
$US/$Cdn
Please see Advisories and Disclaimers at the end of the publication for important cautionary advisory and disclaimer language
46.88 3.09 2.83 0.88 0.7400
Performance of Oil and Gas Equities Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History
Oil & Gas Service Equities Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History
Broad Equity Markets Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History
Canadian Currency ExchangeDaily Close Values; Rolling 24-Month History
1 2
3 4
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17
$US/$Cdn
Chart Watch
50.33
Visit www.arcenergyinstitute.com for more
information on this publication and the Institute
ARC Energy Charts
1
5
25
37
40
á
Broad market indices are one the many vital signs measuring the health of the economy. Energy demand is a function of economic health.
Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.
Performance of Canadian and US oil & gas equities are compared against each other.
Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.
The performance of Canadian oil and gas service equities are plotted in tandem with the corresponding US index.
Source: Bloomberg, Petroleum Services Association of Canada
Much of Canada’s oil and gas production is sold in US dollars. As such, the exchange rate significantly impacts corporate revenues and profits.
Source: Bloomberg
á
Equities fell sharply mid-week
WTI finished the week up $2.57/B
Henry Hub net longs rose to a new record high
The gas storage glut contracted last week
The Canadian rig count rose by 5 last week
á
á á
á
The US dollar sold off along with equities last week in...
...the wake of increased US political uncertainty.
Halliburton expects to raise prices by at least 10% and...
...in some cases 20% (or more) this year.
US equities fell sharply on Wednesday following...
...reports of a memo from former FBI Director...
...James Comey suggesting Trump asked him to stop the...
...investigation of Michael Flynn.
The CAD was further boosted by rising oil prices.
July 3, 2006
ARC Energy Charts
May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 2www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MMB/dOffshore O il Production
Onshore O il Production
0
1
2
3
4
5
10
20
30
40
50
60
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17
WTI D iff
WTI
WTI ($US/B) WTI Dif f to Brent ($US/B)
WTI Crude Oil Price and Differential to BrentNear-Month WTI and Brent Differential; Rolling 12-Month History
Canadian Heavy Oil Price Differential to WTI Western Canadian Select (WCS) Differential; Rolling 12-Month History
6
7 8
9 10
5
0
5
10
15
20
10
20
30
40
50
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17
WCS Diff.
WCS
WCS ($US/B) WCS Dif f to WTI ($US/B)
46
48
50
52
54
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WTI $US/B 2017
2018
2019
US Crude Oil FuturesWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) 2017 to 2019
Canadian Light Crude Oil Price Differential to WTIWTI and Edmonton Light differential; Rolling 12-Month History
0
1
2
3
4
5
20
30
40
50
60
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17
Edm. Light Diff.
Edmonton L ight
Edm. Light ($US/B) Edm. Light Dif f to WTI ($US/B)
Ratio of Long to Short Contracts - WTIManaged Money - Futures and Options
Total US Oil ProductionMonthly; 2010 to Present
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17
Long:Short
The differential should reflect the transportation cost from Alberta to Cushing. Greater discounts can result from infrastructure or refinery outages.
Source: Bloomberg
North American crude oil prices can sometimes disconnect from global prices depending on regional supply and demand dynamics.
Source: Bloomberg
Forward prices for WTI are plotted against months in the calendar year. Years are distinguished by color and symbol coding.
Source: Bloomberg
Canadian heavy crude oil differentials are becoming less volatile with growing access to new markets via pipeline and rail.
Source: Bloomberg
This represents the relative bullishness of money managers on the price of oil in the United States.
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
The advancement of drilling and completion methods boosted US crude oil production, prior to the downturn in prices.
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Crude Oil
WTI finished the week up by $2.57/B, a gain of 5.4%.
The long:short ratio in WTI contracts among money...
The WCS discount to WTI remains narrow – under $10/B.
Oil sands maintenance is constraining supply at...
...Suncor Firebag and MEG Christina Lake.
According to the EIA, US produc-tion in Feb was 9.03 MMB/d.
The Edmonton Light differen-tial widened to $3.55/B.
Differentials are returning to normal as production...
The market is focused on the May 25th OPEC meeting.
...ramps back up at the Syncrude upgrader.
...managers fell again, to the lowest level since the…
This is a gain of 0.46 MMB/d from the Sept 2016 low.
...November OPEC meeting.
July 3, 2006
ARC Energy Charts
May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 3www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17
MMB/d Crude Oil
Refined Products
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MMB/d
Global Oil Supply-Demand Balance Quarterly; 2010 to Present
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
MMB/d
OPEC Oil Production Monthly; Rolling 60-Month History
Alberta Oil Production
Monthly; Conventional and Oil Sands
16
11 12
13 14
15 US Weekly Crude Oil Imports from CanadaPipeline, Tanker and Barge Crude Imports; Rolling 24-Month History
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17
MMB/d
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MMB/d
US Crude Oil ImportsHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels
2016
2017
US Exports of Crude Oil and Refined ProductsWeekly Data; 2013 to Present
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
MMB/d
Mil
lio
ns
Upgraded Oil Sands
Non-Upgraded Oil Sands
Conventional
Oversupply
Shortfall
Most of Canada’s oil production comes from Alberta; split between oil sands and conventional production.
Source: Alberta Energy Regulator
OPEC’s production levels relative to its sustainable and spare capacity influences global crude prices.
Source: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly
Negative numbers indicate a global crude shortfall, while positive numbers indicate an oversupply.
Source: International Energy Agency
Prior to the downturn, growing domestic supply was displacing crude oil imports. Crude oil imports for the current year are in blue.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Crude oil imports from Canada are taking market share from overseas imports.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
The US exports more refined products than crude oil. If/when tight oil growth resumes, most export growth should come from crude oil exports.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Crude Oil
OPEC will meet on May 25th to discuss the continuation of... ...their
production cuts.
The IEA’s May Oil Market report revised the Q1 balance.
They’re now sho-wing a Q1 over-supply of only 0.09 MMB/d.
This is essentially a balanced market.
YTD there has been a 359 MB/d increase in US oil imports.
More than half of this increase has come from Canada.
The IEA reported that Canadian oil production in...
...March was down 70 MB/d from Feb, largely as a...
… result of Syncrude outages.
July 3, 2006
ARC Energy Charts
May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 4www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17
# of Oil Rigs - Total# of Oil Rigs - Play Lev el
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MMB
US Crude Oil Stocks Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels
17 18
19 20
21 22
2016
2017
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
%
OECD Total Industry Oil StocksAmericas and Rest of OECD; 2012 to Present
20162017
US Motor Gasoline ConsumptionHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MMB/d
2017
2016
Daily NGL Prices as a % of Edmonton Light Propane & Butane Spot Prices at Edmonton, AB
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr -16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr -17
% of Edm. Light
Cond ensate
Butane (Spot)
Propa ne (Spot)
US Oil Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Horizontal Oil Rig Counts; 2014 to Present
Bakken
Total US (Right-Axis)
Permian
Eagle Ford
US Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (%)Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels
US crude oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices. Stock levels for the current year are represented by the blue line.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Global oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices*Includes U.S. (~90%), Canada, Mexico and Chile.
Source: International Energy Agency
Refinery utilization rates change the supply of refined products, impacting price. Utilization for the current year is blue.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Gasoline consumption accounts for almost half of all oil use in the US. Gasoline consumption for the current year is represented by the blue line.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Tracking US oil drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of US oil supply and growth trends.
Source: Baker Hughes
Natural gas liquids have become critical contributors to producer’s cash flow. Prices are influenced by the price of oil as well as local supply and demand.
Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.
Crude Oil
US stocks drew by 1.8 MMB last week.
The US oil rig count rose for a 18th straight week; up by 8. In that time 198
rigs have been added, with 94 in the Permian.
Cana
Woodford
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
MMB
OECD Americas*
Other OECD
The surplus to last year contracted to 11.0 MMB.
Storage is still at a surplus of over 110 MMB to the 5-yr avg.
The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook projects gasoline...
...consumption in the light duty fleet dropping by 10% from...
...2015 to 2025 as improved fuel economy outweighs the...
...trend towards larger vehicles.
The IEA’s May Oil Market Report showed a reduction in...
...OECD stocks in March of 32.9 MMB.
Most of this (21.8 MMB) was outside of the Americas.
US refinery utilization last week was 93.4% versus the...
...5-year average of 89.6%. This is helping to drive down storage.
July 3, 2006
ARC Energy Charts
May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 5www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
May 21 Aug 19 Nov 17 Feb 15 May 16
25
27 28
26
2423 Near-Month North American Natural Gas Prices Daily Prices; Rolling 12-Month History
Henry Hub
$US/MMBtu
AECO
$C/GJ
US Natural Gas FuturesNymex (Henry Hub) 2017 to 2019
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$US/MMBtu 2017
2018
2019
Canadian Natural Gas FuturesAECO Hub (Bloomberg Estimate) 2017 to 2019
US Coal and Natural Gas Power Generation Cost
Converted to a $/MWh Equivalent
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$US/MWh
Appalachian
Coal
Henry
Hub
Global Natural Gas Prices
Japanese LNG, UK NBP, Henry Hub; Average Monthly Prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16
$US/MMBtu
Japanese
LNG
Henry
Hub
UK NBP
Ratio of Long to Short Contracts – Henry HubManaged Money – Futures and Options
Differential
$US/MMBtu
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$C/GJ 2017
2018
2019
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17
Long:Short
Near-month prices at AECO track Henry Hub prices, the exchange rate and the cost of transportation. Local factors can also affect price.
Source: Bloomberg
Forward contract prices are plotted against months in the calendar year. Years are distinguished by color and symbol coding.
Source: Bloomberg
This represents the relative bullishness of money managers on the price of natural gas in the United States.
Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
AECO forward prices mimic Henry Hub futures plus a differential
Source: Bloomberg
International natural gas prices strongly impact the economics of proposed LNG projects.
Source: Bloomberg, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
This graph illustrates when it may be economic to begin coal-gas switching in power generation. Average power plant efficiencies are assumed.
Source: Bloomberg
Natural Gas
Henry Hub futures for the remainder of the year are...
...averaging $3.39/MMBtu, this is up $0.12 from last Friday.
Speculators con-tinue to increase bets on higher gas prices. Net Henry Hub
longs rose by over 28,000 contracts to...
Futures for the same period in 2018 are avg’ing $2.96/MMbtu.
The arbitrage between Japanese LNG and Henry Hub... ...rose to $4.92/
MMBtu. This is the widest since December 2015.
...the highest level since the start of CFTC’s record in 2006.
AECO broke through $3/GJ on May 12 for the first time...
...this year, bef-ore falling down to $2.87/GJ to close the wk.
July 3, 2006
ARC Energy Charts
May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 6www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf /d
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf /d
Closing Spot Prices at North American Natural Gas HubsSuperimposed on Relative Pipeline Flows
\
30 31
All prices in $US/MMBtu
Closing Spot Prices at North American Natural Gas HubsSuperimposed on Relative Physical Volumes Traded
AECO
Henry Hub
Kingsgate
Stanfield
Malin Opal
Socal
San Juan
Permian
Ventura ChicagoBoston
29
Dawn
Waddington
TGP Zone 4 -
Marcellus
US Natural Gas Exports – Excluding CanadaDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels
2017
2016
Pipeline Flows Out of Western CanadaDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels
2016
2017
The ability of gas producers to move gas out of the WCSB to eastern markets and the US is a major factor in local natural gas prices.
Source: Various Pipeline Companies
Between exports to Mexico and LNG shipments, the US is growing as a natural gas exporter. Robust US supply growth has driven this trend.
Source: Bentek
North America has an integrated natural gas market. Prices are determined by regional supply and demand, and pipeline flows.
Source: Bloomberg
Natural Gas
US$3.09
US$2.21
US$2.79
US$2.51
US$2.66
US$3.05
US$2.69
US$2.69
US$2.82
US$3.35
US$2.88
US$5.00
US$3.19
US$3.16
US$2.54
According to a new report from Platts, the landed costs...
...into Dawn for Western Canad-ian gas are about $0.40/MMBtu...
Overall US exp-orts have avera-ged 2.2 Bcf/d over last year.
...lower than for gas from the U.S.
CDN exports have been steady to start the year, but...
...we expect some declines in the summer due to maintenance.
Most of this gain (1.6 Bcf/d) has come from LNG exports.
July 3, 2006
ARC Energy Charts
May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 7www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
2017
2017
2016
32 33
34 35
36 37
Total US Dry Natural Gas ProductionHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels
2016
50
53
56
59
62
65
68
71
74
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf /d
20172013
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf /d
US Total Natural Gas DemandDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels
2017
US Weekly Cooling Degree DaysSource: NOAA
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tcf
Total Working Natural Gas in US StorageHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels
2016
2017
(350)
(300)
(250)
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf
Weekly US Natural Gas Storage Net ChangeWeekly Injection or (Withdrawals); 2009 to Current
2016
12
13
14
15
16
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf /d
Daily Western Canadian ProductionEstimated Using Major Pipeline Receipts
2016
Weekly natural gas demand is directly tied to the weather. The current year is in dark blue.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Total US demand fluctuates between 60 Bcf/d in the summer and over 100 Bcf/d in the winter. Weather is the most important driver of consumption.
Source: Bentek
US production started ramping up in late 2007 and continues to grow year over year.
Source: Bentek
This includes receipts on the TCPL, Alliance, WestCoast and TransGas pipelines.
Source: Various Pipeline Companies
Weekly gas storage reports provide a snapshot of supply and demand. Current year changes are represented by the blue line.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
The EIA reports changes in US natural gas inventories held in underground storage facilities on a weekly basis.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Natural Gas
US natural gas storage grew by only 68 Bcf last week.
US natural gas production has remained very flat so far… ...this year
averaging 70.8 Bcf/d; 2.0 Bcf/d below last year.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
CDDs
Week
2016
2017
Warmer than normal temperatures have boosted...
Gas stocks are 256 Bcf over the 5-year average.
This was well below the typical build for this time of yr.
...natural gas demand.
This is down from 358 Bcf just four weeks ago.
July 3, 2006
ARC Energy Charts
May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 8www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
2015
2016
2010
2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Week
Well Completions (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17
# of Gas Rigs - Total# of Gas Rigs - Play Lev el
38 39
40 41
42 43
Weekly Canadian Oil and Gas Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Average Rig Counts; Rolling 24-Month History
0
50
100
150
200
250
May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17
# of Rigs
Gas
Rigs
Oil
Rigs
US Gas Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Horizontal Gas Rig Counts; 2014 to Present
Marcellus
Total US (Right Axis)
Western Canadian Natural Gas Storage LevelsWeekly; Current Year and Historic Tracks
2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf
2017
Alberta Natural Gas DemandTransCanada Intra-AB Deliveries; Current Year and Historical Tracks
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Bcf /d
2017 2016
2012
Canadian Cumulative Well CompletionsCurrent Year vs Years Prior
2016
2014
Alberta Crown Land Sales – Excluding Oil SandsYear-over-Year; Cumulative
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$ Billions
2017
2013
2012
2010
2011
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
Alberta natural gas demand has grown steadily in recent years, largely driven by new oil sands projects coming on line.
Source: TransCanada Pipelines
Canada’s natural gas storage level provides a good metric if the country is well stocked. Abnormally high or low storage can affect the basis.
Source: Bloomberg
Unlike US drilling activity, Canadian rigs are dispatched seasonally. Capital allocation by operators is driven by views of future oil and gas prices.
Source: Baker Hughes
Tracking US gas drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of US gas supply and growth trends.
Source: Baker Hughes
Land prices are an important component of F&D costs. In Alberta, sales of petroleum and natural gas rights are held every two weeks.
Source: Alberta Department of Energy
Relative year-over-year drilling activity is highlighted in this chart. Cumulative well completions for the current year are shown in blue.
Source: Daily Oil Bulletin/JWN
Natural Gas and Other Indicators
2015
2017
The US gas rig count rose by 8 last week, hitting the...
The Canadian rig count rose after 11 straight weeks of drops.
Gas rigs fell by 2 while oil rigs rose by 7.
Well completions so far this year have been tracking... ...49% above last
year; an increase of 793 wells so far.
Just under 13% of the Canadian fleet was active last week.
According to Canadian Ener-data, Western Canadian...
...storage is 69.2% full versus 84.7% a week ago.
...highest level since December 2015.
Industry paid $3.41 M in bonus bids at B.C’s last land sale.
Industry bought 3,143 hectares at an average of $1085.42/Ha.
July 3, 2006
ARC Energy Charts
May 23, 2017
ARC Energy Charts 9www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.
Estimated Capital Flow in the Canadian Oil and Gas Economy for 2017Industry Revenue, Cash Flow, Reinvestment, Drilling Activity and Production
Oil & Gas
Prices
Production
Volume
Debt,
Equity
E&P
Revenue
Service Sector
Revenue
Land,
Acquisitions
Operating
Expenditures
Reserve
Additions
Capital Flow
in the
Canadian
Oil and Gas
Economy
Royalties
& Taxes
G&A
Exploration &
Development
Cash
Flow
CAPEX
Dividends and
Distributions
Foreign Investment
and Capital Outflow
Drilling
Activity
$C 41.35 per BOE
7.1 Million
BOE/day
$C 43.8
Billion
$C 106.7
Billion
$C 42.4
Billion
5,625
Wells
Canadian Industry Statistics: Historical Data and Forecast44
Canadian Industry Metrics
Advisories and Disclaimers: This document is provided for informational purposes only and none of the information contained herein is intended to provide, nor should be
construed as, investment, financial, legal or other advice and should not be relied upon as such. Certain of the information and data contained herein has been obtained or
prepared from publicly available documents and other sources prepared by third parties, and ARC has relied upon such information and data. ARC does not audit or
independently verify such information and data and ARC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and data nor the
conclusions derived therefrom. This document has been published on the basis that ARC shall not be responsible for, and ARC hereby expressly disclaims any responsibility
or liability for, any financial or other losses or damages of any nature whatsoever arising from or otherwise relating to any use of this document.
Certain information contained herein may constitute forward-looking information and forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under the
meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements include estimates, plans, expectations, intentions, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or
other statements that are not statements of fact, including but not limited to global and industry economic conditions and policies, production, demand and commodity prices.
Although ARC believes that the assumptions underlying and expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no (and does not give any)
assurance that such assumptions and expectations will prove to have been correct. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and
other factors outside of ARC's control that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed herein. Neither ARC nor any of its affiliates undertakes any
obligation to publicly revise such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law.
Average
Price
Edmonton
Par AECO
Conv.
Liquids
Bitumen +
Synthet ic
Natural
Gas
Total
Volume
Total
Revenue
After-tax
Cash Flow
Conv. Oil
and Gas Oilsands
Reinvest
Rat io
Wells
Compl.
Avg Rig
Utiliz.
Oil
Wells
Gas
Wells
$/BOE $C/B $C/GJ
Average
M BOE/d
Average
M BOE/d
M BOE/d
(@ 6:1)
M BOE/d
(@ 6:1)
$C
millions
$C
millions
$C
millions
$C
millions x:1
# /
Year % % %
2008 68.22 102.66 7.75 1,994 1,207 2,700 5,864 145,425 83,255 36,293 18,113 0.65 16,877 41% 36% 56%
2009 42.26 66.42 3.79 1,840 1,331 2,514 5,683 89,057 36,680 22,335 11,227 0.91 8,368 25% 41% 51%
2010 48.41 77.55 3.79 1,830 1,403 2,434 5,668 101,056 43,569 35,666 17,195 1.16 12,119 40% 56% 40%
2011 55.32 95.24 3.44 1,873 1,482 2,386 5,740 115,890 53,448 40,139 22,491 1.10 12,827 52% 69% 31%
2012 50.60 86.38 2.27 1,905 1,743 2,327 5,975 111,389 48,908 39,733 27,199 1.37 11,067 44% 83% 17%
2013 55.95 93.47 3.02 2,023 1,940 2,343 6,306 128,787 54,711 43,165 30,809 1.35 11,071 42% 84% 16%
2014 61.20 95.07 4.23 2,086 2,163 2,445 6,694 149,530 71,846 46,872 33,868 1.12 11,222 45% 78% 22%
2015 35.34 57.63 2.56 1,983 2,373 2,479 6,835 88,170 24,109 30,551 22,948 2.22 5,382 24% 69% 31%
2016e 31.55 52.93 2.06 1,921 2,393 2,495 6,809 78,407 20,868 20,532 16,209 1.76 4,060 17% 70% 30%
2017e 41.35 67.33 2.67 1,868 2,655 2,548 7,070 106,723 43,789 29,131 13,242 0.97 5,625 24% 70% 30%
R einvestment D rilling Well Split
Canadian Industry Metrics
P rice P ro duct io n Vo lume C apital Inf lo w
Rachel Notley announced that the Alberta Government...
...will provide a $235 million loan to the industry...
...Orphan Well Association for the remediation of orphan wells.