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Long term (3 to 6 Months)
“
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● South Korea reports 169 new coronavirus cases, including first U.S. soldier
From CEO's Desk
Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday
Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various
techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back
testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to
fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other
peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's
speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of
moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -
80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)
News On The Street
70% 69% 73%
Mr. Abhishek Goenka
Comments by a CDC (Centre for Disease Control) official that the US should prepare
for the Coronavirus outbreak becoming a pandemic has further dampened global risk
sentiment. The Dow saw a massive fall for the second straight session. The US 10y
yield hit a new record low. There is also a likelihood of the summer Olympics being
cancelled altogether. Asian currencies are trading weak against the US Dollar. Likely
range 71.65-72.05 with sideways price action. The Rupee may continue to outperform
on account of relatively weaker trade linkage with China compared to other Asian
economies, lower crude prices and month end exporter selling. The RBI yesterday
announced two more tranches of 3 year LTROs of Rs 25000cr each to be conducted
on 1st and 5th March. With this the RBI would have injected Rs 100000 lakh cr of low
cost durable liquidity into the banking system as it had announced in the monetary
policy. We could see further receiving in LTFX and further compression in corporate
bond spreads today.
Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover exposure on upticks towards 72.00 levels.
Importers are advised to cover near term exposure on dips towards 71.50. The 3M
range for USDINR is 70.00 - 72.50 and the 6M range is 69.50 - 73.50.
IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index
● Junk bond spreads surge as investors consider virus risks
● UK could lose $32 billion annually in EU exports if trade deal fails: UN
CDC officials' comments on
coronavirus outbreak spook
markets
● 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits record low
● RBI announces two long-term repo operations in March
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com
“USDINR
$ INDEX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
GOLD
”
1.0800-1.1200 ↓
$1450- $1800 ↑ $1450- $1800 ↑
97.50- 99.50 ↑
0.7100- 0.7500
$1500- $1700 ↑
GDP data and
headlines on Covid-
19 are likely to
influence the price
action this week
70.00-72.50 ↑
106.00-111.00 ↓
1.1200-1.1800 ↑1.1000-1.1500
1.2800-1.3800
Q4 FY 2019-20
102.00-108.00 105.00-110.00
69.50 - 73.50 ↑69.50-72.50 ↑
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2950 -1.3030)
IFA Outlook
Q3 FY 2020-21
February 26, 2020
Q1 FY 2020-21
FX Outlook for the day
69.50-74.50 ↑
1.2800-1.3400 ↓
0.6600-0.7000 ↓ 0.7100- 0.7500
95.00- 100.00 ↓
1.1000-1.1650 ↑
$1500- $1750 ↑
● USDINR (RANGE- 71.65 - 72.05)
The USDJPY pair fell back sharply after finding weekly trendline
resistance near 112.00 levels. Also contributing to the pair’s selloff is
the greenback weakness against the majority of its counterparts.
Japanese PM Abe today morning stated that Japan is taking the
utmost measures to stop the coronavirus spread. Global risk sentiment
will continue to dominate the price action.
The USDINR pair opened lower by 13 paise at 71.75 amid easing of
crude prices and on expectation that RBI would intervene in order to
halt steep rupee depreciation. RBI yesterday announced two LTROs for
3-yr tenors worth Rs 25,000 cr each to be conducted on Mar 2 & Mar 9.
Meanwhile, India and the US have signed defence, energy and
telecoms deals but failed to reach a much-talked about trade accord.
The EURUSD pair jumped 100 pips from the yearly lows in the last
three trading sessions, currently hovering around 1.0870 levels. The
coronavirus extended its claws through Europe, with more cases
reported in France, mainland Spain, and Germany. On the data front,
German economy stagnates in Q4 as both private consumption and
state spending lost momentum, renewing fears of a recession.
● USDJPY (RANGE- 110.10 - 111.00)
Q2 FY 2020-21
● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.0830 - 1.0910)
107.00-111.50 ↑
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com
97.00- 100.00
1.2600-1.3600 ↓ 1.2800-1.3800
0.6800- 0.7400
95.00- 100.00 ↓
The GBPUSD pair is hovering around 1.30 psychological mark from the
last couple of sessions. EU released a document, set to be the base of
the upcoming trade relationship with the UK. The kingdom will release
its declaration next Thursday, although Downing Street responded to
the EU, claiming that the UK deserves the same respect to autonomy as
other major economies such as Canada and Japan.
“
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“
”
“
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DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
After finding resistance at the upper edge of long term
symmetrical consolidation range of 70.60 - 72.00,
USDINR pair retraced back and is seen hovering around
71.80 levels from last couple of sessions. In order to
continue further upside, the pair needs to break and
close above 72.00 levels. On the flipside, 71.40 - 71.50
range will act as an immediate support zone
FIIs have so far
infused $13.93
billion in the
Financial year 2019-
20
Highest OI for Call
stands at 72.00 & Put
at 71.00 strike price
for Feb month
currency derivative
expiring today.
Chart of the Day USDINR Spot 71.78
Activity Kurtosis
● USDINR Open Interest (February Expiry )
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com
● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty
February 26, 2020
LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y
USD 1.57 1.61 1.63 1.65 USDINR 0.19 0.65 2.77 6.48
EUR -0.57 -0.52 -0.41 -0.34 EURINR 0.35 1.13 4.64 10.24
JPY 0.04 -0.10 -0.03 0.06 GBPINR 0.32 1.07 4.37 9.78
JPYINR 0.28 0.91 3.75 8.35
REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
ASIA 26708.27 -0.69 1639.20 -0.80 -0.05
3022.21 0.30 18.07 0.03 0.14
22357.39 -1.10 50.25 0.35 0.7
INDIA 39898.33 -0.95 99.12 0.15 0.15
11738.55 -0.50 103.21 0.06 0.06
EUROPE 5679.68 -1.94
12790.49 -1.88 FY 2019-20 CY 2020 25-Feb-20
7017.88 -1.94 76,161 21,978 -1,736
US 27081.36 -3.15 18,145 -3,072 -3,187
8965.61 -2.77 5,801 454 484
100,107 19,360 -4,439
“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2
USDINR 71.56 71.68 71.80 71.92 72.04
EURINR 77.31 77.63 77.95 78.27 78.59
GBPINR 91.11 91.81 92.51 93.25 93.95
JPYINR 64.65 64.82 64.99 65.16 65.33
”
Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
25-Feb EUR 12:30 PM 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% BEARISH
USD 8:30 PM 130.7 132.0 131.6 BEARISH
26-Feb USD 8:30 PM 710K 694K
USD 9:00 PM 2.005M 0.414M
New Home Sales (Jan)
Pivot Points
GLOBAL INDICES
DAX
FTSE
DOW
NASDAQ HYBRID
February 26, 2020
JPYINR pair is likely to find resistance at R1
levels (65.16)
Quick Glance
CAC
FPI INFLOWS
DEBT
SHANGHAI
COMMODITIES/DI
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
Major Global Rates
SILVER ($/ounce)
Bloomberg ADXY
GOLD ($/ounce)HANG SENG
NIFTY
WTI CRUDE ($/brl)
Dollar INDEX
LIBOR Rates
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com
Figures are in INR Crores
Major Global Events
Macro Monitor
TOTAL
EQUITY
Crude Oil Inventories
German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
SENSEX
NIKKEI
Rolling Forward Premiums
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does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not
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