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4th Edition - 2011
Chapter 2Chapter 2
Natural and Technological Hazards Natural and Technological Hazards and Risk Assessmentand Risk Assessment
Key DefinitionsKey Definitions Hazard: Hazard: as a “source of danger that may or may as a “source of danger that may or may
not lead to an emergency or disaster and is named not lead to an emergency or disaster and is named after the emergency/disaster that could be so after the emergency/disaster that could be so precipitated.”precipitated.”
Risk: Risk: the interaction of a hazard likelihood and the interaction of a hazard likelihood and the consequences should it occur the consequences should it occur
Emergency Event: Emergency Event: one that requires the efforts of one that requires the efforts of one or more of the emergency services to manageone or more of the emergency services to manage
Disaster:Disaster: an emergency event that exceeds the an emergency event that exceeds the capacity of emergency services in one or more capacity of emergency services in one or more critical areascritical areas
Natural HazardsNatural Hazards
Exist in the natural environment and Exist in the natural environment and pose a threat to human populations pose a threat to human populations and communities.and communities.
Exacerbated by human developmentExacerbated by human development
FloodsFloods
Can be slow or fast risingCan be slow or fast rising Many causes, including large-scale weather Many causes, including large-scale weather
systems, thunderstorms, snowmelt, ice systems, thunderstorms, snowmelt, ice jams, and dam failuresjams, and dam failures
The most frequent and widespread disaster The most frequent and widespread disaster in many countries around the worldin many countries around the world
EarthquakesEarthquakes A sudden, rapid shaking of the earth caused by the A sudden, rapid shaking of the earth caused by the
breaking and shifting of rock beneath the earth’s breaking and shifting of rock beneath the earth’s surfacesurface
Active seismic zones have been identified around Active seismic zones have been identified around the globe – millions exposedthe globe – millions exposed
Difficult to predictDifficult to predict Often cause secondary disasters, such as fires, Often cause secondary disasters, such as fires,
landslides, avalanches, tsunamis, or dam failures, landslides, avalanches, tsunamis, or dam failures, among others.among others.
Measured by the Richter Scale or Modified Measured by the Richter Scale or Modified Mercalli Intensity ScaleMercalli Intensity Scale
HurricanesHurricanes Tropical wave Tropical wave →→ tropical depression tropical depression →→ tropical storm tropical storm
→ → hurricanehurricane Hurricane must have sustained winds greater than 74 Hurricane must have sustained winds greater than 74
mph.mph. Storm surge, rains, and high winds cause damageStorm surge, rains, and high winds cause damage US hurricane season – June 1 to November 30US hurricane season – June 1 to November 30 Described using the Saffir-Simpson ScaleDescribed using the Saffir-Simpson Scale Hurricane tracking has advanced rapidlyHurricane tracking has advanced rapidly Hurricane Katrina the most costly disaster in US Hurricane Katrina the most costly disaster in US
historyhistory
Storm SurgesStorm Surges Dramatic rises in sea level and large coastal waves Dramatic rises in sea level and large coastal waves
that cause flooding and erosionthat cause flooding and erosion Most common from late fall to early spring but can Most common from late fall to early spring but can
develop year-rounddevelop year-round Usually associated with extra-tropical cyclones Usually associated with extra-tropical cyclones
(nor’easters) in the North Atlantic Ocean and the (nor’easters) in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and severe winter low-pressure Gulf of Mexico, and severe winter low-pressure systems in the North Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of systems in the North Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of AlaskaAlaska
Katrina storm surge reached 28 feet, devastated the Katrina storm surge reached 28 feet, devastated the Gulf CoastGulf Coast
Modeled using SLOSHModeled using SLOSH
TornadoesTornadoes Rapidly rotating vortex or funnel of air extending Rapidly rotating vortex or funnel of air extending
groundward from a cumulonimbus cloudgroundward from a cumulonimbus cloud Approximately 1,200 tornadoes are spawned by Approximately 1,200 tornadoes are spawned by
thunderstorms each yearthunderstorms each year Can lift and move huge objects, destroy or move Can lift and move huge objects, destroy or move
buildings, and siphon waterbuildings, and siphon water People living in valleys have the greatest exposurePeople living in valleys have the greatest exposure Tornado Alley: TX, OK, AR, MO, and KS.Tornado Alley: TX, OK, AR, MO, and KS. Measured by the Enhanced Fujita-Pearson ScaleMeasured by the Enhanced Fujita-Pearson Scale Safe rooms are the greatest defenseSafe rooms are the greatest defense
WildfiresWildfires
Surface fire: Surface fire: most common; burns along forest floor; most common; burns along forest floor; moves slowly and kills or damages trees;moves slowly and kills or damages trees;
Ground fire: Ground fire: usually started by lightning; burns on or usually started by lightning; burns on or below the forest floorbelow the forest floor
Crown fire: Crown fire: spreads rapidly by wind and moves spreads rapidly by wind and moves quickly by jumping along the tops of treesquickly by jumping along the tops of trees
Risk increases as people move into the wildland-urban Risk increases as people move into the wildland-urban interfaceinterface
Severe drought and fuel buildup have led to a Severe drought and fuel buildup have led to a significant increase in US wildfiressignificant increase in US wildfires
Mass Movement HazardsMass Movement Hazards
Horizontal or lateral movement of large quantities Horizontal or lateral movement of large quantities of physical matterof physical matter
Most prevalent in rugged/varied topographyMost prevalent in rugged/varied topography Can include:Can include:
– LandslidesLandslides– MudflowsMudflows– Lateral SpreadsLateral Spreads– Rock FallsRock Falls– AvalanchesAvalanches– Land SubsidenceLand Subsidence– Expansive SoilsExpansive Soils
TsunamisTsunamis
A series of waves generated by an undersea A series of waves generated by an undersea disturbance such as an earthquake, landslide, or disturbance such as an earthquake, landslide, or volcanic eruptionvolcanic eruption
Travel from area of disturbance at high speeds, across Travel from area of disturbance at high speeds, across long distanceslong distances
Waves slow down and rise when they approach the Waves slow down and rise when they approach the shoreline, reaching heights of up to 100 feetshoreline, reaching heights of up to 100 feet
Most deaths are caused by drowningMost deaths are caused by drowning The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed between The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed between
150,000 and 200,000 people in 11 countries150,000 and 200,000 people in 11 countries
VolcanoesVolcanoes A break in the earth’s crust from which molten A break in the earth’s crust from which molten
rock (magma) exits onto the surfacerock (magma) exits onto the surface When pressure from gases and magma increases, When pressure from gases and magma increases,
eruptions occureruptions occur Lava, gas, rock, may spread over large areasLava, gas, rock, may spread over large areas Volcanic ash may travel hundreds of miles, can Volcanic ash may travel hundreds of miles, can
contaminate water, cause electrical storms, and contaminate water, cause electrical storms, and collapse roofscollapse roofs
An erupting volcano can trigger tsunamis, flash An erupting volcano can trigger tsunamis, flash floods, earthquakes, rock falls, and mudflows, floods, earthquakes, rock falls, and mudflows, among other secondary hazardsamong other secondary hazards
Severe Winter StormsSevere Winter Storms Consist of extreme cold and heavy snow or iceConsist of extreme cold and heavy snow or ice A blizzard combines heavy snowfall, high winds, A blizzard combines heavy snowfall, high winds,
extreme cold, and iceextreme cold, and ice In the US, the weather patterns are from four In the US, the weather patterns are from four
sources:sources:1.1. The North Pacific Ocean or the Aleutian Islands The North Pacific Ocean or the Aleutian Islands 2.2. Canadian and Arctic cold frontsCanadian and Arctic cold fronts3.3. The Great LakesThe Great Lakes4.4. The Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of MexicoThe Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico
In 2006, the Federal Government began measuring In 2006, the Federal Government began measuring Severe Winter Storms using NESIS Severe Winter Storms using NESIS
DroughtDrought A prolonged shortage of available water caused by a deficiency A prolonged shortage of available water caused by a deficiency
of rainfall or because of exceptionally high temperatures and of rainfall or because of exceptionally high temperatures and low humiditylow humidity
Drought differs from other hazards in three ways:Drought differs from other hazards in three ways:– The onset and end are difficult to determine because the The onset and end are difficult to determine because the
effects accumulate slowly and may linger even after the effects accumulate slowly and may linger even after the apparent termination of an episodeapparent termination of an episode
– The absence of a precise and universally accepted definition The absence of a precise and universally accepted definition adds to the confusion about whether a drought exists, and if adds to the confusion about whether a drought exists, and if it does, the degree of severity; and it does, the degree of severity; and
– Drought effects are less obvious and spread over a larger Drought effects are less obvious and spread over a larger geographic area.geographic area.
Extreme TemperaturesExtreme Temperatures
Major diversions from average seasonal Major diversions from average seasonal temperaturestemperatures
Can cause injuries, fatalities, and major economic Can cause injuries, fatalities, and major economic impacts when prolonged or coincide with other impacts when prolonged or coincide with other disaster eventsdisaster events
Extreme Heat - 10 degrees or more above regional Extreme Heat - 10 degrees or more above regional averages lasting for several days or weeksaverages lasting for several days or weeks
Extreme Cold – no accepted ‘standard’, but occur Extreme Cold – no accepted ‘standard’, but occur when temperatures fall far below averages for an when temperatures fall far below averages for an extended timeextended time
Coastal ErosionCoastal Erosion
Measured as the rate of change in the position or Measured as the rate of change in the position or horizontal displacement of a shoreline over a horizontal displacement of a shoreline over a period of timeperiod of time
Generally is associated with storm surges, Generally is associated with storm surges, hurricanes, windstorms, and flooding hazardshurricanes, windstorms, and flooding hazards
May be exacerbated by human activities such as May be exacerbated by human activities such as boat wakes, shoreline hardening, and dredgingboat wakes, shoreline hardening, and dredging
ThunderstormsThunderstorms
Heavy rainstorms that may be accompanied by Heavy rainstorms that may be accompanied by strong winds, hail, lightning, tornadoes.strong winds, hail, lightning, tornadoes.
Generated when the following exist:Generated when the following exist:– Unstable warm air rising rapidly into the atmosphere; Unstable warm air rising rapidly into the atmosphere;
– Sufficient moisture to form clouds and rain; Sufficient moisture to form clouds and rain;
– Upward lift of air currents caused by colliding weather Upward lift of air currents caused by colliding weather fronts (cold and warm), sea breezes, or mountainsfronts (cold and warm), sea breezes, or mountains
May occur singly, or in clustersMay occur singly, or in clusters
HailstormsHailstorms
An outgrowth of a severe thunderstorm An outgrowth of a severe thunderstorm Balls or lumps of ice greater than 0.75 inchBalls or lumps of ice greater than 0.75 inch Occur more frequently during late spring Occur more frequently during late spring
and early summerand early summer Cause nearly $1 billion in property and crop Cause nearly $1 billion in property and crop
damage annually.damage annually.
Technological HazardsTechnological Hazards
Exist because of human innovation and Exist because of human innovation and activityactivity
Newer and less understood than natural Newer and less understood than natural hazardshazards
Include hazards that are non-intentional, Include hazards that are non-intentional, such as transportation accidents, and such as transportation accidents, and intentional, such as terrorism.intentional, such as terrorism.
Structural FiresStructural Fires
Can be triggered or exacerbated by Can be triggered or exacerbated by lightning, high winds, earthquakes, lightning, high winds, earthquakes, volcanoes,and floodsvolcanoes,and floods
Lightning is the most significant natural Lightning is the most significant natural contributor to fires affecting the built contributor to fires affecting the built environmentenvironment
Buildings with rooftop storage tanks for Buildings with rooftop storage tanks for flammable liquids are particularly flammable liquids are particularly susceptiblesusceptible
Dam FailureDam Failure
Potentially the worst flood eventPotentially the worst flood event Usually the result of neglect, poor design, Usually the result of neglect, poor design,
or structural damage caused by a major or structural damage caused by a major event such as an earthquakeevent such as an earthquake
When a dam fails, a gigantic quantity of When a dam fails, a gigantic quantity of water is suddenly let loose downstream, water is suddenly let loose downstream, destroying anything in its pathdestroying anything in its path
Hazardous Materials IncidentsHazardous Materials Incidents Chemical substances, if released or misused, can Chemical substances, if released or misused, can
pose a threat to the environment or healthpose a threat to the environment or health HazMats may be explosive, corrosive, flammable, HazMats may be explosive, corrosive, flammable,
poisonous, and/or radioactivepoisonous, and/or radioactive Most often released because of transportation, Most often released because of transportation,
manufacturing, or storage accidentsmanufacturing, or storage accidents May cause death, serious injury, long-lasting May cause death, serious injury, long-lasting
health effects, and damage to buildings, homes, health effects, and damage to buildings, homes, and other propertyand other property
Nuclear AccidentsNuclear Accidents Exposure to radiation is the main hazardExposure to radiation is the main hazard Exposure could come from plant material Exposure could come from plant material
releaserelease Area affected determined by amount Area affected determined by amount
released, wind direction and speed, and released, wind direction and speed, and weatherweather
On-site ERPs approved by the NRC - Off-On-site ERPs approved by the NRC - Off-site plans evaluated by FEMAsite plans evaluated by FEMA
TerrorismTerrorism The use of force or violence against persons or The use of force or violence against persons or
property in violation of the criminal laws of the property in violation of the criminal laws of the United States for purposes of intimidation, United States for purposes of intimidation, coercion, or ransomcoercion, or ransom
Before 9/11, most US terrorism involved bombsBefore 9/11, most US terrorism involved bombs Effects vary death/injury to property damage and Effects vary death/injury to property damage and
service disruptionservice disruption Governments reduce vulnerability by increasing Governments reduce vulnerability by increasing
security security Terrorism may be domestic or internationalTerrorism may be domestic or international
CBRN IncidentsCBRN Incidents
Family of weapons characterized by their Family of weapons characterized by their broad-sweeping intended effects, such as broad-sweeping intended effects, such as inflicting mass casualties and/or physical inflicting mass casualties and/or physical destructiondestruction
Include:Include:– ChemicalChemical– BiologicalBiological– NuclearNuclear– RadiologicalRadiological
Chemical WeaponsChemical Weapons Naturally-occurring or manmade liquids, gases, or solids Naturally-occurring or manmade liquids, gases, or solids
(typically in the form of dust) (typically in the form of dust) Toxic effects on humans, animals, plants, or propertyToxic effects on humans, animals, plants, or property Must be delivered onto or around intended victims to be Must be delivered onto or around intended victims to be
effectiveeffective– AerosolizedAerosolized– DroppedDropped– SplashedSplashed– Poured Poured – Released by bombsReleased by bombs– Sprayed from containers or vehiclesSprayed from containers or vehicles
Detection a challengeDetection a challenge
Biological WeaponsBiological Weapons
Organisms or toxins either naturally Organisms or toxins either naturally occurring or genetically engineered, that occurring or genetically engineered, that can kill or incapacitate people, livestock, can kill or incapacitate people, livestock, and cropsand crops
There are 3 basic groups:There are 3 basic groups:– BacteriaBacteria– VirusesViruses– ToxinsToxins
Most are difficult to grow and maintainMost are difficult to grow and maintain
Radiological WeaponsRadiological Weapons
Commonly referred to as a “dirty bomb” or Commonly referred to as a “dirty bomb” or “radiological dispersion device (RDD)”“radiological dispersion device (RDD)”
Use common explosives to spread radioactive Use common explosives to spread radioactive materials over a targeted areamaterials over a targeted area
Distinct from nuclear blasts (much more Distinct from nuclear blasts (much more localized) localized)
Presence of radiation may not be recognized, Presence of radiation may not be recognized, will be harmful to those exposed, and may be will be harmful to those exposed, and may be very difficult to remove or containvery difficult to remove or contain
Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons Cause great harm through the activation of a fission or Cause great harm through the activation of a fission or
fusion chain reaction fusion chain reaction Possible only through the advanced technology and using Possible only through the advanced technology and using
only the most refined nuclear materials only the most refined nuclear materials Explosion emits intense light and heat, damaging pressure, Explosion emits intense light and heat, damaging pressure,
and disperses radioactive debris over a widespread area and disperses radioactive debris over a widespread area leading to the contamination of air, water, and ground leading to the contamination of air, water, and ground surfaces for miles around. surfaces for miles around.
The likelihood of a terrorist organization developing an The likelihood of a terrorist organization developing an operational nuclear weapon is almost niloperational nuclear weapon is almost nil
A successful use of a nuclear weapon would cause A successful use of a nuclear weapon would cause thousands of deaths and destroy billions in propertythousands of deaths and destroy billions in property
Hazards Risk ManagementHazards Risk Management
Process by which individuals, communities, and Process by which individuals, communities, and countries deal with the hazard risks they face countries deal with the hazard risks they face
A primary function of governmentA primary function of government Many different methodologies existMany different methodologies exist A four-step process that includes: A four-step process that includes:
– Identifying the hazardsIdentifying the hazards
– Assessing risk for each hazard identifiedAssessing risk for each hazard identified
– Analyzing hazard risks in relation to each otherAnalyzing hazard risks in relation to each other
– Treating hazard risk according to prioritizationTreating hazard risk according to prioritization
Hazard IdentificationHazard Identification All hazards that have or could affect an area of All hazards that have or could affect an area of
focus are identified and describedfocus are identified and described Done through:Done through:
– Historical studyHistorical study– BrainstormingBrainstorming– Scientific analysisScientific analysis– Subject matter expertiseSubject matter expertise
For more common hazards the presence of the For more common hazards the presence of the hazard will be obvioushazard will be obvious
For new or changing hazards the knowledge or For new or changing hazards the knowledge or opinion of experts is requiredopinion of experts is required
Hazard profiling a key componentHazard profiling a key component
Hazard Risk AssessmentHazard Risk Assessment
The threat posed by each hazard is investigatedThe threat posed by each hazard is investigated Risk calculated according to two equal factors: Risk calculated according to two equal factors:
– Hazard likelihood Hazard likelihood – Hazard consequenceHazard consequence
These factors inform us of how concerned we These factors inform us of how concerned we should be about the existence of a hazard, and should be about the existence of a hazard, and what we can do to prevent or treat the hazardwhat we can do to prevent or treat the hazard
Generally, high likelihood / high consequence Generally, high likelihood / high consequence hazards are of greatest concernhazards are of greatest concern
Can be qualitative or quantitativeCan be qualitative or quantitative
Hazard Risk AnalysisHazard Risk Analysis Determines the relative seriousness of hazard risks that Determines the relative seriousness of hazard risks that
have been identified and assessedhave been identified and assessed Most communities have a range of competing Most communities have a range of competing
budgetary pressures and are therefore unable to fully budgetary pressures and are therefore unable to fully mitigate all hazard riskmitigate all hazard risk
Commonly conducted through a risk matrixCommonly conducted through a risk matrix– A graph that represents risk likelihood and consequence on A graph that represents risk likelihood and consequence on
the X and Y axesthe X and Y axes Vulnerability analysis can help to determine what is Vulnerability analysis can help to determine what is
causing risks, why certain risks rank above others, and causing risks, why certain risks rank above others, and what can be done to increase resilience or decrease what can be done to increase resilience or decrease vulnerability through the various risk treatmentsvulnerability through the various risk treatments
Hazard Risk TreatmentHazard Risk Treatment Reduction in either the likelihood or impacts of a Reduction in either the likelihood or impacts of a
hazard hazard Hazard risks are treated through hazard mitigation Hazard risks are treated through hazard mitigation
and disaster preparednessand disaster preparedness Risk treatment option selection takes the risk Risk treatment option selection takes the risk
assessment methodology beyond process to assessment methodology beyond process to decision-making and actiondecision-making and action
Analysis of cost effectiveness, acceptability by Analysis of cost effectiveness, acceptability by society, and long term positive and negative society, and long term positive and negative impactsimpacts
Process technical / politicalProcess technical / political
Risk Management TechnologyRisk Management Technology
In the last 15 years, technological advances have In the last 15 years, technological advances have refined the ability to identify and understand the refined the ability to identify and understand the nature of hazards and develop better risk nature of hazards and develop better risk assessment methodsassessment methods
Recent technological advances include:Recent technological advances include:– satellite and aerial imagery and radar to map satellite and aerial imagery and radar to map
floodplains and coastal erosionsfloodplains and coastal erosions
– loss estimation from various earthquake scenariosloss estimation from various earthquake scenarios
– safe rooms for homes in tornado-prone areassafe rooms for homes in tornado-prone areas
Social and Economic Risk FactorsSocial and Economic Risk Factors Strong correlation between disasters and povertyStrong correlation between disasters and poverty Risk assessments consider populations homogeneous Risk assessments consider populations homogeneous Social advocacy work to raise vulnerability awareness Social advocacy work to raise vulnerability awareness
of ‘special populations’ of ‘special populations’ Katrina revealed the socioeconomic vulnerability Katrina revealed the socioeconomic vulnerability
divide divide The social makeup of a population is based upon a The social makeup of a population is based upon a
diverse set of factors that includes education, culture, diverse set of factors that includes education, culture, local government, social interaction, values, laws, local government, social interaction, values, laws, beliefs, and other aspects of societybeliefs, and other aspects of society