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4th DR. KRISHNA MOHAN SINGH MEMORIAL AWARD LECTURE
August 27, 2018
Development of Decision Support Tools for Effective Pest Management in Changing Climate
BySubhash Chander
Professor
Division of Entomology
DIVISION OF ENTOMOLOGYICAR-INDIAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
NEW DELHI&
ENTOMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF INDIA
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4th Dr. Krishna Mohan Singh Memorial Award Lecture
Development of Decision Support Tools for Effective Pest Management in Changing Climate
SUBHASH CHANDERProfessor
Division of Entomology ICAR - IARINew Delhi-110012
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Printed by: New United Process, New Delhi-110028, 9811426024
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Dr. Krishna Mohan Singh(1938-1996)
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Dr. Krishna Mohan Singh(1938-1996)
There had been very few entomologists who took the difficult job of organised publication outputs in the name of associations and societies, at the same time relentlessly pursued the cause of science of entomology in a silent manner. There had been very few who had undertaken the duty of motivating others towards the discipline of entomology by their leadership qualities, by way of encouraging the active workers irrespective of their level of expertise and excellence, solely with the objective of promoting entomology. There had been very few, for whom the entomology was closest to their heart, so there was extreme level of perseverance and endurance. There had been very few who nurtured entomology through their innate qualities of organising abilities on a common basis, with the exclusive idea of promoting entomology and spreading the message far and wide. Dr. Krishna Mohan Singh is one such entomologist whose contribution will remain for ever, and lessons drawn for the promotion of entomology.
Dr. Krishna Mohan Singh was born on 1st July, 1938 to late Shri S.N. Singh and late Smt. Champa Devi at Semarah Hardo in Padrauna District (formerly Deoria), Utter Pradesh in a freedom fighter’s family. After his early education, near his village he joined Government Agricultural College, Kanpur, from where he earned his B.Sc. (Ag.) and M.Sc. (Ag.). He had been a brilliant student throughout his educational career. He stood first in order of merit during his M.Sc. (Ag.), not only in his college but in the entire Agra University in 1959. After a brief period of teaching at his Alma Mater he came to the Division of Entomology, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, for his Doctoral degree. He worked under the able guidance of Dr. S. Pradhan and was awarded the Ph.D. in 1968. Dr. Singh joined the Indian Agricultural Research Institute in November 1968 as Assistant Professor in the Division on Entomology, served as Ecologist, in charge of Entomology unit in the Water Technology Centre, and became Head, Division of Entomology in April 1995 and continued till he breathed his last.
Dr. Singh made many contributions to the science of entomology and published around 150 scientific articles, and one can gauge the variety and depth of his interest in entomology from these publications. Some of his significant contributions are:
• Development of electrophysiology as a tool in entomological research, with innovative techniques for neurophysiological and neurotoxicological investigations. He demonstrated that aldrin, dieldrin, carbaryl and lindane did not affect the sensory component of the crural nerve, whereas, pyrethrum caused striking changes.
• The persistence, decay and distribution of P32 in the desert locust was studied by him using radio tracer techniques.
• His work on cell physiology led to the finding that epithelial lining of the midgut is highly sensitive to gamma radiation in Oriental fruit fly.
• He developed an artificial medium for the rearing of Cadra cautella.• As early as seventies, Dr. Singh recognized the importance of Cropping Systems, and was pioneer
in establishing the Cropping Systems Entomology.
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• Dr. Singh, along with his research scholars ascertained the succession and population buildup of insect pests of red gram, green gram, black gram, pea, bengal gram, cowpea, rice bean, faba bean, sorghum, pearl millet, and groundnut under the representative agroclimatic conditions.
• Demonstrated the impact of intercropping, irrigation and other agrotechniques on the population buildup of crop pests as influenced by the change in crop canopy and resultant change in the microclimate. Such ecological interventions have considerably delayed the appearances and lowered the pest incidence of the crop.
Dr. Singh compiled a "Bibliography on the Natural Enemies of Locusts and other Acridids", which was circulated during the International Study Conference on the Current and Future Problems of Acridology in 1970.
Besides his contribution to basic and applied entomology, Dr. K.M. Singh enjoyed every higher adoration and respect for the teaching capabilities. He was the first to initiate a course on Insect Pest Management, which he continued to teach till 1996. Hes guided research on diverse aspects of Entomology to a large number of Post-Graduate students and acted as Research Guide for 17 Ph.D. and 30 M.Sc. students.
Dr. Singh's service to scientific documentation is immense as his name remained inseparably with Entomological Society of India, during which he was the Joint Secretary (1971-1972) and, the General Secretary (1973-1996). He was also the Chief Editor for two decades. Dr. Singh was founder member of the Indian Society of Agricultural Science and Managing Editor of the Annals of Agricultural Research from 1980 to 1988.
He acted as a Technical Expert on Board of Studies/ Research Degree Committees of several Universities e.g., Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi; C.S. Azad University of Agriculture and Technology, Kanpur; Agra University, Agra; Meerut University, Meerut; Udaipur University, Udaipur and IARI, New Delhi. He was also a Member of the Board of Management of the Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute, Jhansi.
Dr. Singh inherited a pious and gentle nature from his mother and was drawn to the ideas of Swamy Vivekananda. He was open to noble ideas coming from any quarter and was always sympathetic to others, which made him a perfect team leader. His personal qualities of kind heartedness and affection will be remembered forever by all entomologists. All who have come across Dr. Singh during his long years at I.A.R.I., quote him as "Friend, Guide and Philosopher" with adoration.
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Dr. Subhash Chander, Professor of Entomology, IARI, passed B.Sc. (Agri.) in 1985 from College of Agriculture, Solan, a constituent college of CSKHPKV Palampur, winning University Gold Medal and ASPEE Medal. He did both M.Sc. and Ph.D. in Entomologyfrom ICAR-IARI, New Delhi in 1987 and 1991, respectively, specializing in ‘Insect Pest Management’ and was awarded IARI Gold Medal for his excellent performance in M.Sc. He qualified ‘Agricultural Research Service’ (ARS) in 1990 achieving 2nd rank and joined ICAR service in 1991.
During his service career spanning 27 years, Dr. Subhash Chander has contributed significantly in research, education and extension. He has made significant contribution in the area of crop-pest simulation, development of spectral signatures and decision support tools, and IPM technology dissemination. InfoCrop simulation model, based on pest damage mechanisms, has facilitated simulation of location-specific EILs for rice insect pests. Thermal constant based insect models, linked to InfoCrop, proved useful in assessing climate change impact both on pest dynamics and crop-pest interactions under diverse agro-environments. His work onthe development of spectral signatures of rice brown planthopper (BPH) and leaf folder through hyper-spectral remote sensing could facilitate their quick monitoring in wide areas. Predictive pest zoning through pestpopulation models andgeographic information system (GIS) assisted in identifying hot spots of rice BPH and stem borer that could promote timely action for their effective management. Further, predator–conditioned sequential sampling helped to avoid unwarranted pesticide application against rice BPH. In addition, he developed residue-free IPM packages for pests of tomato, chillies and cabbage, and disseminated them. He was involved in development and release of very important rice variety, Pusa Basmati 1509 and two wheatvarieties, HD3086 and HD3118 that have been widely adopted.He has beeninvolved in 13 externally-funded and 14 In-house research projects during his career.
With regard to teaching and research guidance, he has guided 10 Ph.D. and 5 M.Sc. students in new areas of crop-pest simulation modeling, remote sensing and climate change impacts on insects. His students have won IARI Merit medal and Guruprasad Pradhan Medal for their outstanding Ph.D. research. He has also been member in the advisory committee of more than 30 students.He has contributed towards development and revision of Insect Ecology and IPMcourses that further, have been strengthened with inclusion of techniques of simulation modeling, geo-spatial techniques and climate change impact assessment. Besides, he has prepared e-learning material and participated in Edusat programmes. He has been involved in conducting four training courses as Co-ordinator and delivered more than 20invited and 60 training lectures.As Professor of Entomology, he has seriously endeavoured to improve the academic environment in the discipline and encouraged younger faculty and students to be innovative. Besides, he has beenexaminer for several universities.
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In the area of agricultural technology dissemination, he has served as a member of the Institute Production Unit during 2009-2014 and contributed significantly in IARI outreach programme. During this period, he also acted as Nodal Officer under IARI National Extension Programme (NEP) to CSKHPKV, Palampur for disseminating improved Agricultural technology to farmers through various KVKs of the University. He was also nominated as an Expert to resolve Farmers Problems through Kisan Call Centres (KCC), IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL). Besides, he has been Co-convener of various committees constituted to organize Pusa Krishi Vigyan Mela.
He has undergone 3-months advanced NATP Training on Crop-pest modeling at Great Plains Systems Research (GPSR) Unit, USDA, Fort Collins, USA and 3-weeks training on modelling at ‘Centre de Cooperation Internationale en Recherché Agronomique pour le Development (CIRAD)’ France for modelling training. He also underwent 3-months Edusat-based training on “Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System and Global Positioning System” conducted by Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun.
He has published more than 100 research papers in peer-reviewed high rated journals and has 35book chapters, 46 symposia papers, 45 popular articles and many radio/TV talks and technical folders to his credit. Besides, he has co-authored 3 books.
He is also rendering professional service and has been a member of‘National Editorial Board of Indian Journal of Horticulture, Horticultural Society of India, New Delhi and ‘Editorial Board, SAARC Journal of Agriculture, SAARC Agriculture Centre, Dhaka, Bangladesh. At present, he is serving as Joint Secretary of ‘Entomological Society of India’ New Delhi for the third term. He has been a reviewer of reputed international journal: Journal of Economic Entomology, Bulletin of Entomological Research, Crop Protection, Phytoparasitica and Rice Science.
He has significantly contributed to institute building as a member of PG School committees, Library committees, and Regional station and KVK committees. Besides, he has been a member of departmental promotion committee (DPC) of many ICAR institutes, SAUs and other organizations.He has been nominated to several inter-institutional committees: Research advisory committee (RAC), ICAR-Indian Institute of Pulses Research (IIPR), Kanpur and Directorate of Cashew Research (DCR), Puttur; Institute Management Committee (IMC), IIHR-Bengaluru; External faculty, Faculty of Agriculture, BHU; Academic Committee, National Institute of Plant Health Management (NIPHM), Hyderabad; Doctoral Committee, School of Science, IGNOU, New Delhi; Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC), National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF), New Delhi; Global Technology Watch Group (GTWG)-sustainable agriculture, TIFAC, DST, New Delhi.
He is recipient of ICAR Dr. C. Subramaniam Award for Outstanding Teachers for Crop & Horticultrual Sciences- 2014; Sukumar Basu Memorial Award for the Biennium 2009-2010 by IARI, New Delhi; IARI Best Teacher Award- 2007; SPPS Meritorious Scientist Award-1997 by Society of Plant Protection Sciences, New Delhi-1997. He also received Appreciation letter from Joint Director (Res.), IARI, New Delhi, for participating in Pusa Vishishth Hindi Pravakta Puraskar Yojna-2013 IARI, New Delhi. He has also delivered 1st Dr. Niranjan Panda Memorial Lecture-2017, OUAT, Bhubaneswar. He is a Fellow of the Entomological Society of India, New Delhi and Society of Plant Protection Sciences (SPPS), New Delhi. Further, he has also chaired/co-chaired technical sessions in International/National seminars and workshops.
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Development of Decision Support Tools for Effective Pest Management in Changing Climate
SUBHASH CHANDERDivision of Entomology
ICAR- Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi-110012
First of all, I offer my sincere thanks to the Division of Entomology, IARI for giving me an opportunity to deliver such a prestigious lecture, the Dr. Krishna Mohan Singh Memorial Award Lecture. I will attempt to discuss the application of modelling and geo-spatial techniques for developing decision support tools for effective suppression of pests. I feel more privileged in receiving the award as Dr. K.M. Singh has been my teacher as well as advisory committee member and Head of the Division in initial stages of my career. His contribution to ecology has brought marked changes in the application of ecological principles to pest management and is still serving as the model. Dr. Singh contributed immensely to organize the Indian Journal of Entomology to a great height.
1. Introduction
Pest management is a complex system involving many interrelated components such as crop, pests, natural enemies, beneficial organisms and non-target organisms subjected to man’s production oriented interventions under variable weather (Teng and Savary, 1992). It is also known as systems approach to tackle pest problems in agro-ecosystem. Pest management -includes intensive decision making requiring effective decision support tools. Development of an IPM scheme for a sustainable farming system demands thorough analysis of the agro-ecosystem, which may be useful in identifying new control techniques by indicating intervention points (Rabbinge et al., 1989; Boote et al., 1983; Pinnschmidt et al., 1994). Further, models help to understand and analyze inter-relationships among various components of a system. A system is a limited part of the real world having inter-related components. It represents more than the mere addition of its components. The components of a system interact in such a way that a change in any component has repercussions for the whole system. A model is a simplified representation of a system. Basically models can be qualitative or quantitative. Quantitative models can be further classified as empirical or descriptive and mechanistic or explanatory models. The use of simulation models in pest management commenced with the development of single species population dynamics models in late 60s. Crop growth simulation models were coupled with the pest damage mechanisms in mid 80s (Rabbinge, 1983; Boote et al., 1983; Rouse, 1988). However, it was described as one–way approach of analyzing crop-pest interactions because these models accounted for pest effects on crop growth without reverse being true. Two-way approach for crop-pest interactions came in to being with interlinking of pest population dynamics models with crop growth simulation models in 1990s, which increased our understanding of the complex pest-crop systems.
Pest management can be seen as a decision making system. There are mainly two types of decision in pest management, tactical and strategic decisions. Pest management emphasizes need-based pesticide application in selective manner so as to minimize crop loss, conserve environment and ensure favourable economic returns. Judicious pesticide use also helps in prolonging useful life of pesticides
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avoiding development of pesticide resistance in pests. Decision support tools such as economic injury levels play an important role in need-based application of pesticides. Pest management research thus is required to derive such practical tools for developing tactics and strategies for pest management. Systems approach provides such tools in the form of simulation and decision models. The systems approach or systems analysis is equated to the development, testing and evaluation of a simulation model (Teng and Savary, 1992). Besides, geo-spatial techniques such as remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) can play an important role in pest surveillance and pest risk analysis.
Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the distribution, phenology and abundance of many insect species over the next few decades. Furthermore, the relative efficacy of pest management tactics such as, host-plant resistance, bio-pesticides, natural enemies and synthetic chemicals is liable to change as a result of global warming (Sharma, 2010). It, therefore, becomes important to assess climate change impact on insect populations and adopt suitable pest management adaptations for their effective management.
2. Simulation of crop losses due to pests Assessment and extrapolation of yield losses are mandatory at both the strategic and tactical decision levels. These are required at the strategic level for research prioritization and at tactical level for taking action or improving pest management. Crop loss models are often used to quantify the relationship between plant yield and pest incidence.
2.1 Empirical approach: Empirical approach has been used for establishing damage functions between pest damage and crop yield. Empirical models are the regression relationships among various variables e.g. simple regression between yield of the crop and pest incidence (y = a-bx). It is a two-step approach involving the pest incidence and crop yield without considering the pest effects on plant physiological processes. These models do not explain the mechanism of yield loss due to pests and are thus location and time specific and cannot be extrapolated without the risk of error. This is a weakness common to all empirical regression models (James and Teng, 1979). Empirical damage functions were established for the rice leaf folder as: Y = 91.82 – 1.043X (R2 = 0.58) and Y = 100.187 – 0.504X (R2 = 0.88) and EILs based on them were computed to be 4 and 8% leaf damage, respectively, that depicted temporal variability of this approach (Chander and Singh, 2001).
2.2 Mechanistic approach: Assessment of crop losses due to pests with mechanistic approach, that is, with simulation models is based on the concept of pest damage mechanisms. Damage mechanisms of the pest can be defined as plant physiological process affected by the pest injury. Crop simulation model coupled with pest effects is called crop-pest simulation model. The assessment of crop losses with mechanistic approach is a three-step approach taking in to consideration, the pest population/damage, damage mechanism of the pest and the crop yield (Fig. 1). Output of simulation models have been observed to be more reliable and can be extrapolated as it is based on physiological basis of pest damage. Simulation models are also capable of addressing injury to the crop due to multiple pests which is very difficult to achieve in field experiments. These models enhance efficiency of field experiments greatly and have great potential for applications in the field of pest management.
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A generic crop growth model, INFOCROP developed at ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi has been coupled with different pest damage mechanisms (Aggarwal et al., 2004; Aggrawal et al., 2005a; Aggarwal et al., 2005b). These coupled models further have been calibrated and validated through field experiments.
Fig. 1. Assessment of crop losses due to pests with a simulation model
2.3 Pest damage mechanisms: The plant physiological processes affected by pests are called damage mechanisms (Table. 1). Different categories of damage mechanisms encompass reduction in germination, plant killing, competition for resources (light, water and nutrients), reduction of assimilation rate, assimilate consumption, tissue consumption and turgor reduction by hampering water and nutrient uptake (Rabbinge et al., 1994). Accordingly, different pests can be broadly categorized as germination reducers, stand removers, light (resource stealers), assimilation rate reducers, assimilate sappers, tissue consumers and turgor reducers, respectively.
Germination reducers damage seeds in the soil before germination. Pests like mole cricket and seed maggots are included in this category. Their effect is simulated by reducing initial leaf weight. Stand reducers kill whole plant or part of it e.g. stem borer, cutworms, termites, damping off and wilts. The severity of loss due to these pests depends upon number and distribution of lost plants, compensation ability of remaining plants and development stage of the crop. Rice and wheat can compensate such effects during the tillering stage of the crop whereas, in crops such as maize the compensation is less effective. The effect of this damage mechanism on crop growth and yield is simulated by reducing growth rates of leaf area, leaf weight, stem weight, stem area, stem reserve weight and grain number. Light stealers comprise those pests that intercept photosynthetically active radiation before it can be utilized by plants for photosynthesis. Weeds, diseases such as rust, blights, mildew and sooty mould developing on honeydew excreted by sucking pests constitute this category of pests. Light interception by necrotic lesions on leaves of crop plant may also interfere with photosynthesis. Weeds besides light also compete for nutrients and water with crop plants and, therefore, are also sometimes termed as resource stealers. The effect of light stealers on crop growth is modeled by reducing the amount of photosynthetically active radiation intercepted (PARINT) by the crop.
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Table 1. Different pest damage mechanisms coupled to InfoCrop model
Damage mechanism Plant Processes affected Pests
Germination reducer Germination Mole cricket, diseasesStand reducer Leaf area, plant organ weights Stem borer, damping off
Light stealer Photosynthetic active radiation (PARINT)
Sucking insects, weeds
Assimilation rate reducer Radiation use efficiency Powdery mildew, sucking insects
Assimilate sapper Increase maintenance cost of plants
Sucking insects
Tissue consumer Leaf area, stem weight, panicle weight
Defoliators, blights
Turgor reducer Nutrient and water uptake Nematodes
Assimilation rate reducers are pathogens and insects that affect the photosynthetic capacity of green tissues of plants. They may affect the photosynthesis rate at light saturation or the radiation use efficiency of the crop. Photosynthesis rate may be affected by reducing number of chloroplasts per unit leaf area, altering the chloroplast structure and components of the electron transport chain or causing malfunctioning of stomatal guard cells. Diseases such as powdery mildew, blight, rust and virus diseases belong to this category. Some insects may also act as assimilation rate reducers as they accelerate leaf senescence. The effect of assimilation rate reducers is accounted for by reducing radiation use efficiency (RUE) of the crop.
Assimilate sappers such as aphids, plant hoppers, whiteflies, mites, thrips and bugs suck assimilates from plant, and as a result less carbohydrates remain available for plant growth. Their effect on plants is simulated by reducing the rate of available assimilates for plant growth. These pests may suck sap from all plant parts or any of the plant parts. The effect of assimilate sappers is simulated by decreasing green leaf weight, stem reserves weight and storage organ weight in accordance with pest sucking rate from leaves, stems and storage organs, respectively.
Tissue consumers are pests that feed on different plant parts like roots, leaves, stems and storage organs. However, most evident among them are leaf consumers that reduce the capacity of the crop to capture light for photosynthesis. Defoliating beetles, grasshoppers, leaf folders, leaf miners, node borers, grain feeders and foliar diseases like leaf blights, blast and sheath blight can be grouped in this category. Their effect can be simulated by reducing rates of leaf area, leaf weight, stem area, stem weight or storage organ weight depending upon their nature of damage. Turgor reducers comprise soil borne pests, diseases and nematodes that hamper water and nutrient uptake by plants.
These damage mechanisms categories have to be seen as a broad framework. Defining the category for a pest is difficult because some pests affect the crop in several ways like brown planthopper in rice acts as assimilate sapper as well as light stealer. Likewise, foliar diseases act as light stealer, assimilation
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rate reducer as well as tissue consumers. Ear cutting caterpillar functions as tissue consumer as well as assimilation reducer. For quantifying damage mechanisms, all the possible damage mechanisms of a pest are hypothesized and prioritized. Most important damage mechanisms are then coupled to crop growth model at appropriate plant growth processes level. These are then validated through field experiments. If these could not be validated then are modified and new damage mechanisms are validated. After quantification and validation of damage mechanisms, crop-pest simulation models can be used for various applications in pest management (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2. Quantification of pest damage mechanisms (DM) through a simulation model
3. Geo-spatial techniquesRemote sensing and GIS can play increasingly vital role in pest surveillance, pest risk analysis and predictive pest zoning.
3.1 Remote sensing
Remote sensing is the acquisition of knowledge or information about objects from a distance without coming into direct contact with them. In remote sensing, the information about objects is gathered based upon reflected radiation from their surface. Remote sensing of crop canopies involves measurement of electromagnetic radiation reflected or emitted from plant parts. Human eye along with a highly developed brain forms a natural remote sensing system, which can perceive only reflected radiation of visible band of the electro-magnetic (em) spectrum. Since visible light forms a very narrow portion of the extremely broad electromagnetic spectrum, the knowledge about objects obtained through our eyes
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is partial. Therefore, man tries to imitate already existing natural remote sensing system and improve upon it so that detailed information about objects can be gathered. From remote sensing point of view Infrared (IR) and visible bands of electo-magnetic spectrum are important.
Spectral signatures: Spectral signatures of any object comprise a set of values for its reflectance or emittance in different spectral bands of em spectrum. The amount and quality of light reflected from crop canopies are strongly dependent on both the crop species and condition of the crop. Plant pigments, leaf structure and total water content are three important factors affecting spectral reflectance of vegetation. External factors, which influence spectral reflectances of vegetation are: moisture stress, soil nutrients/salinity, pests, seasonal variation and climatic factors. The spectral reflectance of healthy vegetation/crop is characterized by:
Fig. 3. Spectral reflectance from rice crop infested with different densities of brown planthopper (BPH)
High absorption i.e. low reflectance in blue and red regions of em spectrum; ii) high reflectance in near IR due to internal cell structure and iii) water absorption bands i.e. low reflectance in the mid IR. Any deviation in reflectance from the above pattern indicates some sort of stress on the crop. High value of reflectance in visible blue and red regions, low reflectance in near IR and high reflectance in mid IR would show that there is some stress on the crop (Fig. 3).
Ground truth: Stress on vegetation or damage symptoms may be caused by any of the biotic and abiotic factors viz., moisture, nutrients, pests and diseases. Simply by observing the reflectance the cause of stress cannot be known. The cause of the stress has to be ascertained or confirmed from the field. This is called the ground truth. The damage symptoms due to various factors need to be thoroughly differentiated and standardized for future comparisons.
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Remote sensing in entomology was first used in the field of forestry, wherein slow moving ships were found useful for visually assessing the extent of damage by spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana in United States and Canada (Craighead, 1921).
Sensors for measuring spectral signatures: In field studies, spectroradiometer, infrared thermometer, scatterometer and photographic cameras are used, while in air and space, multispectral scanner, imaging spectometer, microwave radometer and synthetic aperture RADAR are utilized.
Advantages of remote sensingi) With remote sensing, pest infestation can be detected in large areas within a short time facilitating
early warning to the farmers.
ii) The assessment of pest injury may vary from person to person due to differences in visual perception. This variation is reduced to minimum when damage is assessed through remote sensing.
iii) Remote sensing is useful in assembling regional, national and global information regarding crop losses.
iv) Pest attack in inaccessible area can also be detected.
3.2 Geographic information systems: It can be used for pest risk analysis and predictive pest zoning. Pest population dynamic model can be run with requisite weather data and probability of pest outbreak for a site can be determined. Site predictions can then be extrapolated through GIS to carve out the zones of equal epidemic potential for a pest. Yadav et al. (2010) undertook agro-ecological zoning of rice BPH, Nilaparvata lugens, where in Andhra Pradesh was divided into zones of differential pest epidemic potential. Knowledge of pest epidemic potential in different zones allows strategic decisions with respect to selection of crop cultivars and appropriate management options.
4. Climate change impact on pests and pest management tacticsClimate change is likely to impact insect pest populations as well as pest management tactics.
4.1 Impact on insects: The global climate change may affect the crop yields, incidence of pests and economic costs of agricultural production. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on pest distribution and abundance. The rising CO2 concentration may not only have a variety of direct effects on plants, but may also have indirect effects on herbivores and their natural enemies (Stiling et al., 2002). The climate has profound effects on populations of invertebrate pests like insects, mites and others affecting their development, reproduction and dispersal (Sutherst, 1991).
Climate change will have both direct and indirect effects on insect population. Indirect effects will be through their host plants. Impacts of climate change on insects may include shifts in species distribution with shift in geographic ranges to higher latitudes and elevations; changes in phenology with life cycles beginning earlier in spring and continuing later in autumn; increase in population growth rates and number of generations; change in migratory behavior; alteration in crop-pest synchrony and natural enemy-pest interaction and changes in interspecific interactions (Sutherst, 1991; Root et al., 2003). Plant-herbivore interactions are of particular significance because of their agricultural importance as well as their potential
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to affect ecosystem nutrient and carbon fluxes (Frost and Hunter, 2004). Extreme weather events such as intense rainstorms, wind or high temperatures also affect survival of insect populations. For species, to survive changing climates, they must either adapt in situ to new conditions or shift their distributions in pursuit of more favourable ones. Many insects have large population sizes and short generation times, and their phenology, fecundity, survival, selection and habitat use can respond rapidly to climate change. These changes to insect life history may in turn produce rapid changes in abundance and distribution. Changes in rainfall pattern also have implications for insect survival. More intense rainfall as projected under climate change may thus reduce incidence of small pests on crops. Aphid population on barley was found to have negative relation with January mean minimum temperature and February total rainfall (Chander, 1998; Chander et al., 2003).
Direct effects of climate change on insectsExpansion of habitat range: Any increase in temperature is bound to influence the distribution of insect populations. Climatic warming will allow the majority of temperate insect species to extend their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes. It is predicted that 1°C temperature increase would extend distribution of species 200 km northwards or 140 m upwards in altitude (Parry and Carter, 1989). Four butterfly species became extinct at the southern margins of their distribution ranges at low elevation and inhabited high altitudes with a mean increase in elevation of 41 m between pre-1970 and 1999 in Great Britain (Hill et al., 2002). Likewise, average elevation for 15 butterfly species increased significantly between 1950 and 2001 in the Czech Republic with a mean upward shift of 60 m (Konvicka et al., 2003). There is a need to regularly observe activity of pests in different regions in terms of timing, population size and habitat ranges for drawing any meaningful conclusions.
Change in migrating behaviour: Minimum temperature plays important role in determining the global distribution of insect species rather than maximum temperature (Hill, 1987). Hence, any increase in temperature will result in greater ability of insects to over-winter at higher latitudes. The global warming may affect thus migration and extend distribution of the pest further north.
Changes in over wintering success: With rise in temperature, onset of hibernation may be delayed while, it may be suspended earlier than usual in spring thereby increasing period of activity of pests. Non-diapausing aphid species such as Myzus persicae, which were able to over winter in their active stages showed increased survival in warm winters (Bale et al., 1988). These can therefore colonize crops more quickly during spring and earlier flights are known to occur after milder winters.
Changes in interspecific interactions: The effect of climate change on species distribution and abundance could involve not only direct effect on each species individually in an ecosystem but it may also influence interspecific interactions. Rapeseed-mustard is infested by two aphid species, Lipaphis erysimi and Myzus persicae, the former being dominant during severe winters while, the latter during mild winters (Chander and Phadke, 1994). With rise in temperature, higher incidence of M. persicae may be witnessed. Such faunal shifts may also take place in other crops.
Changes in population growth rates: Warming would affect temperate annual and multivoltine species in different ways and to different degrees. In case of multivoltine species such as aphids and some
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lepidopterans, higher temperatures would allow faster development rate probably allowing for additional generations within a year (Pollard and Yates, 1993). Long-term data from several insect-recording schemes in Europe and North America have provided evidence for species becoming active, migrating or reproducing earlier in the year due to increase in temperature that led directly to increased growth rates or earlier emergence from winter inactivity (Menzel and Fabian, 1999; Roy and Sparks, 2000; Fitter and Fitter, 2002; Sparks and Menzel, 2002). Increasing temperatures have also allowed a number of species to remain active for a longer period during the year or to increase their annual number of generations.
Indirect effect through host plantsEffect of increased CO2: The elevated CO2 induces increased plant size and canopy density with high nutritional quality foliage and microclimate more conducive to pests (Gregory et al., 2009). Under higher CO2, there is an increase in C:N ratio that increases feeding of herbivores in order to derive more amino acids. Elevated CO2 had a positive effect on BPH multiplication that resulted in more than doubling of its population compared to ambient CO2. Besides, honey dew excretion was also more under elevated CO2 (Prasannakumar et al., 2012). At elevated CO2, there is an increased partitioning of assimilates to roots in crops such as carrot, radish and sugarbeet. Due to more carbon storage in roots, losses from soil borne pests may be diminished under climate change (Coakley et al., 1999).
Effect of increased temperature: Climate change may alter the interactions between the insect pests and their host plants (Bale et al., 2002; Sharma et al., 2010). Elevated temperature may cause breakdown of temperature sensitive resistance to certain insect pests (Sharma et al., 1999). Under stress conditions, the plant defensive system is lowered and they become more susceptible to pest attack. Conversely, in some forage species, there is increased lignification at higher temperatures that can enhance the level of host resistance to pathogens.
Effect of changes in host plant distribution: Climate change will affect the geographical distribution of plant species and their growth patterns. Spatial changes of crops and cropping systems for sustained productivity are imminent under climate change scenario, which would affect insect pest distribution. New pests may arise, while some pests may become less important if global warming results in northward shift of agro climatic zones and host plants migrate in to new regions.
4.2 Assessment of impact of climate change on insectsImpact of global climate change on crop productivity and pest population can be assessed through experiments as well as through crop growth and insect population models.
4.2.1 Experimental approach Direct impact of temperature: Probable impact of temperature rise on insect populations can be known by comparing current and projected temperature conditions at a location with a species’ favourable temperature range. Data on temperature dependent development period and survival can be used to determine favorable temperature range and computing thermal constant and development thresholds for the species. The BPH development was studied at six constant temperatures, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31 and 33 ±1 °C on rice plants and through regression of development rate on temperature, thermal constant of 1st-2nd instar, 3rd–5th instar and adult were determined to be 126.6, 140.8 and 161.3 degree days (DD),
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respectively with corresponding development threshold being 8.8, 9.5 and 9.6 °C (Sujithra and Chander, 2013). Similarly, based on temperature-dependent development of pink stem borer, Sesamia inferens at six constant temperatures viz., 18, 21, 24, 27, 30, 33 and 35±1 °C, thermal constants for eggs, larvae and pupae were determined as 47.6, 700 and 166.7° days, respectively through a linear model with corresponding lower development thresholds being 13.8, 10.6 and 12.7 °C. Besides, optimum temperature and upper developmental threshold, respectively were found to be 34.6 and 36.2 °C for eggs, 34.5 and 36.4 °C for larvae, and 31.7 and 37.0 °C for pupae of the pink stem borer through a non-linear model (Selvaraj and Chander, 2015). These data were then used to develop population simulation models of these pests.
Indirect impact of CO2: Impact of CO2 on insect population via host plants can be studied through open top chambers (OTCs) and free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) facilities. Effect of higher carbon dioxide on insect multiplication and damage can be studied by releasing a known number of insects on plants in these structures. The OTCs are essentially plastic enclosures, consisting simply of an aluminum frame covered by panels of polyvinyl chloride plastic film. These are thus relatively inexpensive to be built. Prasannakumar et al. (2012) studied effect of elevated CO2 on BPH population in OTCs. Elevated CO2 exhibited positive effect on BPH multiplication and resulted in more than a doubling of its population at peak incidence compared to ambient CO2 during both the years. Despite the nutritive effect, crop under elevated CO2 suffered higher yield loss due to higher BPH population as well as sucking rate compared to ambient CO2. Likewise, climate change impact on wheat aphids has also been assessed through (OTCs) (unpublished; Fig.4.). However, OTCs have long been known to modify the environment by altering light intensity, relative humidity, wind speed and direction and other environmental factors. On the other
Fig. 4. Assessment of impact of elevated CO2 on wheat aphids through Open top chamber (OTC)
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hand, in FACE plants grow in open without any enclosure. The FACE technology facilitates modification of the environment around growing plants to future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 under natural conditions of temperature, precipitation, pollination, wind, humidity and sunlight. Therefore, FACE field data represent plant responses to concentrations of atmospheric CO2 in a natural setting. Ainsworth and Long (2005) reviewed and summarized the research in various FACE facilities world over.
4.2.2. Modeling approach
Simulation models can be used to simulate climate change impact on pest dynamics as well as crop-pest interactions. This aspect has been elaborated further under the Section 5.6 (simulation of climate change impact).
4.3 Climate change impact on pest management tacticsHost-plant resistance, biological control, cultural control and chemical control are the major pillars of IPM. These components are likely to be affected by climatic change and thus would need appropriate modifications for sustaining their effectiveness. Breakdown of temperature-sensitive resistance under increased temperature regimes may lead to more rapid evolution of pest biotypes. Sorghum varieties that were resistant to sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola in India became susceptible to the pest under high humidity and moderate temperatures in Africa (Sharma et al., 1999). This calls for exploration of new sources of plant resistance against insects for their efficient management. It is also important to understand the effect of climate change on the efficacy of transgenic plants, which are also important resource in pest management. Environmental factors such as soil moisture, soil fertility and temperature have strong influence on the expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxin proteins deployed in transgenic plants (Sachs et al., 1998).
Cultural practices are expected to play greater role in pest management in changing climate. Global climate change would cause alteration in sowing dates of crops, which may alter host-pest synchrony. Among three transplanting dates, July I week, July III week and August I week, the BPH population was found to be highest in III transplanting followed by II and I transplanting. The late transplanted crop thus had higher BPH infestation over the others. The BPH incidence on Pusa Basmati 1401 under elevated CO2 (570±25 ppm) in free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) was highest in II transplanting followed by III transplanting, compared to ambient CO2, where it was maximum in III transplanting followed by II trnasplanting (Fig. 5). The July I week transplanting can thus be safely practiced to avoid BPH damage even under climate change (unpublished data). Furthermore, late sown wheat crop was reported to have higher aphid population during vegetative stage than timely sown crop, while during reproductive stage, timely sown crop harboured more aphids on ear heads. The effect of sowing time on aphid population needs to be heeded while formulating such strategy for effective crop management (Chander et al., 2014). Similarly, there is a need to explore changes in pest-host plant interaction due to sowing date in other crops.
Degradation of soil and water resources under intensive agriculture has led to the widespread adoption of reduced tillage and the use of mulches for water retention in a wide variety of crops. Mulching helps to enhance populations of predator and parasitoid in the field (Thomson and Hoffmann, 2007). Aphids were suppressed in mulched cereal fields due to increase in predation (Schmidt et al., 2004), whereas spider
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abundance increased due to greater habitat complexity as result of mulching in the field (Rypstra et al., 1999). Reduced tillage also encouraged natural enemies including beetles (Sharley et al., 2008).
Climate change can have diverse effects on natural enemies of pest. Natural enemy and host insect populations may respond differently to climate change. Activity of entomopathogenic fungi might be favoured by prolonged humidity conditions, but reduced by drier conditions (Newton et al., 2011). Hosts might pass through vulnerable life stages faster at higher temperatures, reducing the time available for parasitism, thereby giving a setback to the survival and multiplication of parasitoids (Gutierrez et al., 2008; Petzoldt and Seaman, 2010). There is thus a need to breed temperature-tolerant natural enemies of pests. Fungi such as Metarhizium anisopliae, Beauveria bassiana, Baculovirus, nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV), cytoplasmic virus and bacteria like Bt have great potential for development as microbial control agents. Because of their selectivity and minimal environmental impact, microbial control agents will be ideal components of integrated pest management programmes under climate change.
Climate change could affect efficacy of crop protection chemicals through changes in temperature and rainfall pattern and morphological and physiological changes in crop plants (Coakley et al., 1999). An increase in probability of intense rainfall could result in increased pesticide wash-off and reduced pest control. In contrast, increased metabolic rate at higher temperature could result in faster uptake by plants and higher toxicity to pests. Likewise, increased thickness of epicuticular wax layer under high CO2 could result in slower or reduced uptake by host plant, while increased canopy size may hinder proper spray coverage and lead to a dilution of the active ingredient in the host tissue. Among different spray volumes viz., 400, 500, 600 and 700 l/ha evaluated for efficacy of Imidacloprid (0.006%)
Fig. 5. Effect of crop phenology on BPH incidence as influenced by elevated CO2
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against BPH under elevated CO2 (570±25ppm), the pesticide was found to be most effective @ 700 l/ha. Higher spray volume may thus be required for effective pest suppression under climate change (unpublished data) and pesticide application thus have to be modified according to new situations.
5. Development of decision support tools for pest managementPest management research is required to derive practical tools for developing tactics and strategies for pest management. Simulation models help to derive such tools and decision models. In fact development, testing and evaluation of a simulation model are synonymous with application of systems approach in pest management. Crop-pest models are being used for various applications like rationalizing pesticide use, pest risk analysis, predictive pest zonation and assessing impact of climate change and for pest forewarning.
5.1 Pest surveillanceSurveillance is backbone of IPM. Geo-spatial techniques can be utilized for pest monitoring in large areas. Besides, natural enemy based monitoring plans will help to reduce dependence on pesticides. Sequential sampling plans formulated for rice planthoppers with incorporation of predator effect (Fig.6) suggested need for management measures at higher planthopper population, thereby avoiding unwarranted pesticide application and ensuring natural enemy conservation and favourable benefit- cost to farmers (Rajna and Chander, 2013). Hyperspectral remote sensing used to detect BPH stress on potted rice plants revealed that the pest damage influenced reflectance of rice plants compared to uninfested plants in the visible and near-infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Correlations between plant reflectance and BPH damage, when plotted against wavelengths, enabled identification of four sensitive wavelengths at 1986, 665, 1792 and 500 nm in relation to BPH stress on rice plants. Based on plant reflectance corresponding to the sensitive wavelengths, a multiple-linear regression model was developed and validated, which would facilitate assessment of BPH damage based on rice plant reflectance, thereby ensuring prompt forewarning to stakeholders (Prasannakumar et al., 2013). The most important aspect of monitoring that needs to be fully exploited keeping in view the climate change scenario is detection of invasive species (Ziska et al., 2011).
Fig. 6. Sequential sampling plan against BPH inclusive of natural enemy effect
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5.2. Determination of location-specific economic injury levels (EILs): EIL is a highly dynamic entity which may differ among geographic locations, plant growth stages, control expenditures and market prices. Traditionally, the EILs for pests are based on empirical yield-infestation relationships, which are site specific and have little scope for extrapolation. It would however be very expensive and time consuming to use field experiments to establish such yield-infestation relationships for different pest species, crops and locations. Crop-pest simulation models can be used to establish location and weather-specific EILs thereby helping to increase the efficiency of field experiments substantially. Coupled models have been used for simulating EILs for bean leaf beetle infesting soybean (Nordh et al., 1988), Russian wheat aphid damage in winter wheat (Chander et al., 2005) and leaf folder damage in rice (Satish et al., 2007). Single species EILs do not prove effective under multi-pest situations because pests though below their individual EILs may jointly cause economic damage. The multi-pest EILs thus seem to be more practical. Yield loss to damage functions was established to determine multiple-pest economic injury levels (EILs) on Pusa Basmati 1 rice. Iso-loss equations, based on yield loss to damage functions, depicted various two-pest incidence combinations that resulted in economic damage (Fig.7). These joint incidence combinations showed that, although each pest was below its EIL, the combination of both pests inflicted economic damage (Selvaraj et al., 2012). The multi-pest EILs can be useful to monitor simultaneous occurrence of two-pest species thereby helping to prevent yield losses. Furthermore, simulation models can be used for establishing EILs for multiple pests associated with crop.
5.3 Pest risk analysis: Simulation models can also be utilized for analyzing the risk associated with the introduction of exotic pests into new ecosystem. The foreign pests under quarantine cannot be brought deliberately into new countries to test their damage potential. Therefore, models are very useful to evaluate
Fig. 7. Iso-loss curve depicting various injury levels of rice leaf folder and stem borer that resulted in economic damage
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situations where actual fieldwork on the pest is not possible (Teng, 1991). Yang et al. (1991) showed the possibility of the approach with a soybean rust model, SOYRUST, which when run with continental USA weather data predicted potential areas for epidemics. When model disease estimates were further linked to soybean crop model, the potential losses attributable to rust epidemics were determined.
5.4 Predictive pest zoning: Pest zonation is a concept that is particularly applicable for large area pest management, in which both tactics and strategies can be merged to achieve optimal management. Pest population dynamic model can be run with requisite weather data and probability of various levels of pest infestation for a site is determined (Yuen and Teng, 1990). Site predictions can then be extrapolated through GIS to carve out the zones of equal epidemic potential for a pest. Predictive pest zoning has been carried out for rice BPH, leaf folder and stem borer (Fig.8), wherein the states could be divided into zones of different epidemic potential for the pests (Reji et al., 2003; Chander et al., 2004; Yadav and Chander, 2010). Attempts have been made to integrate disease predictive systems with online weather and weather-interpolation system to provide information on pest management. Knowledge of pest epidemic potential in different zones would allow strategic decisions with respect to selection of crop cultivars and appropriate management options.
5.5 Pest forewarning: Conventionally, pest forewarning is done following empirical approach. Peaks of BPH light trap catches were observed to have significant correlation with Tmax (maximum temperature), RH1 (morning relative humidity) and RH2 (evening relative humidity) of October 2nd week, rainfall (RF) of July 2nd week, sunshine hours (SSH) of October 1st week and Tmin (minimum temperature) of August 2nd week at Mandya, Karnataka. Weather-based prediction model for the pest was developed using 5-year (2002-2006) data and validated with independent data (R2=0.845; RMSE=7.64%) (Prasannakumar and Chander, 2014). Likewise, pest-weather model was developed for rice leaf folder at Ludhiana, Punjab.
Fig. 8. Predictive pest zoning of BPH and stem borer using pest-weather models and geographic information stystem (GIS)
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Likely causes of the leaf folder outbreak that occurred in Punjab during 2012 were also explored. Weather analysis suggested that besides other factors, hotter and drier conditions during June and July in 2012 as compared to the other years might have played a role in the leaf folder outbreak (Singh et al., 2015). However, such models are location-specific and cannot be extrapolated and also does not account for the processes behind the pest population change. Insect population simulation models, based on various bio-ecological processes viz., fecundity, sex ratio, migration, abiotic and biotic mortality factors, development thresholds and thermal constants can also be used for pest forewarning (Reji and Chander, 2008; Sujithra and Chander, 2013; Selvaraj and Chander, 2015) . These models are mechanistic model and thus explain the causes underlying population change. These can be easily adapted for different agro-ecological situations thereby addressing location-specificity. Such models thus prove better than the empirical models that need to be developed for each situation. These models improved the understanding of the pest as an element of crop ecosystem and further detect the crucial knowledge gaps in view of a holistic assessment of pest status (Graf et al., 1992).
Fig. 9. Coupled Info Crop Rice - BPH population simulation model
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5.6 Simulation of climate change impact: Pest population simulation model can be coupled to crop growth model at relevant plant processes depending on pest damage mechanisms. Crop-pest model can then be used to analyze impact of climate change on insect dynamics as well as crop-pest interactions (Kaukoranta, 1996). A thermal constant-based mechanistic hemimetabolous-population model was adapted for BPH and linked with InfoCrop (Fig.9), crop simulation model and used to simulate climate change impact on BPH population and crop yield under New Delhi and Aduthurai conditions (Sujithra and Chander, 2013). Likewise, a mechanistic holometabolous population simulation model for S. inferens was developed and coupled to InfoCrop-rice model and used to simulate climatic change impact on S. inferens population and rice crop in accordance with four ‘standard special report on emissions scenarios’ (Selvaraj and Chander, 2015).
The coupled crop-pest model can be easily adapted to diverse agro-environments and applied to simulate the pest dynamics and crop losses under location-specific situations. The population dynamics models linked to crop growth model could predict pest population peaks and thereby spray schedules based on economic thresholds can be developed (Benigno et al., 1988).
ConclusionsSimulation models have been used for several applications in the area of pest management, which helped to increase the efficiency of field research greatly. These will be of even greater relevance in emerging research areas, such as climate change impacts on pest dynamics and crop-pest interactions and pest forewarning. In view of fast changing pest scenario and invasive species, the application of geo-spatial techniques holds promise for efficient pest surveillance and risk analysis on ‘Wide-Area’ basis. The situation also demands a holistic crop loss assessment and estimation of multi-pest EILs for appropriate pest management decisions. The natural enemy populations need to be considered in decision making to prevent unwarranted pesticide applications, thereby ensuring better income to growers and avoiding adverse environmental effects. Besides, climate change will also impinge upon effectiveness of various pest management components. It thus becomes very important to assess climate change impact on insects and pest management components and adopt appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to sustain agricultural productivity.
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PREVIOUS DR. K.M. SINGH MEMORIAL AWARD LECTURES
Dr. A.K. Bhattacharya Recent innovations in Entomological Research in India
Dr. V.M. Pawar Role of Biocontrol agents in Pest Management
Dr. L.K. Hazarika Insect Immunology and Pest Management
4th DR. KRISHNA MOHAN SINGH MEMORIAL AWARD LECTURE
August 27, 2018
Development of Decision Support Tools for Effective Pest Management in Changing Climate
BySubhash Chander
Professor
Division of Entomology
DIVISION OF ENTOMOLOGYICAR-INDIAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
NEW DELHI&
ENTOMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF INDIA
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Dr. Krishna Mohan Singh Memorial AwardSponsored By :Dr. Daulat Singh
Dr. Krishna Mohan Singh Memorial TrustFoundation Contributions: Dr. Prakash C. Nigam, Canada
Dr. Radhey S. Pandeya, Canada
Dr. Daulat Singh, USA
Dr. Prasant Singh, USA
Dr. Rama S. Singh, Canada
Dr. Rudra P. Singh, Canada
Dr. Daulat Singh graduated in 1957 from the then Government Agriculture College. Kanpur and then completed his post graduation in Chemistry from
the same college in 1959. After that he served in National Sugar Institute, Kanpur for sometime and later he moved abroad.
He is a very close friend of Dr. K.M. Singh, he used to spend time with Dr. K.M. Singh whenever he visited India. His attachment, with Dr. K.M. Singh is revealed by his generous contribution to establish a National level award in the field of Entomology in the memory of late Dr. K.M. Singh. He is a brilliant Soil Scientist, who excelled in his discipline and also in human behavior component. It is because of his persuasion and generous contribution that the award could become functional.
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