46th AnnualMid-Pacific Region

2013 Water Users ConferenceWater Supply Outlook

Reno, NevadaJanuary 23-25, 2013

Central Valley Project OperationsSacramento, CA

Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2013

Sacramento Valley Unimpaired Runoff

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Perc

enta

ge o

f Ave

rage

Year type classification Sacramento Valley Water Year Index 40-30-30

Wet

Dry CriticalDry

Below Normal

Wet172%

55%55%

70%

135%

86%

63%

BelowNormal

Chart from California Data Exchange Center

8-Station Index Precipitation

Chart from California Data Exchange Center

5-Station Index Precipitation

Sierra Snow Pack

Sierra Snow Pack

Snow Depths

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310

10

20

30

40

50

60

Snow Depths Peterson Flat - Trinity

Elevation 7150

Jan 2012Jan 2013

Sno

w D

epth

(inc

hes)

Snow Depths

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Snow DepthsCaples Lake - American

Elevation 8000

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Snow

Dep

th (i

nche

s)

Snow Depths

Series1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Snow DepthsDeadman Creek - Stanislaus

Elevation 9250

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Snow

Dep

th (i

nche

s)

Snow Depths

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Snow DepthsGreen Mountain - San Joaquin

Elevation 9250

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Snow

Dep

th (i

nche

s)

Current Reservoir Storages

CVP Reservoir Storage

Total Capacity: 11,360 17 Jan 2013

Reservoir 15-yr Ave Oct 1, 2012 WY2013Trinity 1,654 1,796 1,906Shasta 2,989 2,589 3,417Folsom 439 450 555New Melones 1,635 1,509 1,619Fed San Luis 746 251 711

10/0

2/20

0811

/07/

2008

12/1

3/20

0801

/18/

2009

02/2

3/20

0903

/31/

2009

05/0

6/20

0906

/11/

2009

07/1

7/20

0908

/22/

2009

09/2

7/20

0911

/02/

2009

12/0

8/20

0901

/13/

2010

02/1

8/20

1003

/26/

2010

05/0

1/20

1006

/06/

2010

07/1

2/20

1008

/17/

2010

09/2

2/20

1010

/28/

2010

12/0

3/20

1001

/08/

2011

02/1

3/20

1103

/21/

2011

04/2

6/20

1106

/01/

2011

07/0

7/20

1108

/12/

2011

09/1

7/20

1110

/23/

2011

11/2

8/20

1101

/03/

2012

2/8/

2012

3/15

/201

24/

20/2

012

5/26

/201

27/

1/20

128/

6/20

129/

11/2

012

10/1

7/20

1211

/22/

2012

12/2

8/20

12

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Shasta Storage (AF) Oct 1, 2008 through Jan 17, 2013

10/0

2/20

0811

/07/

2008

12/1

3/20

0801

/18/

2009

02/2

3/20

0903

/31/

2009

05/0

6/20

0906

/11/

2009

07/1

7/20

0908

/22/

2009

09/2

7/20

0911

/02/

2009

12/0

8/20

0901

/13/

2010

02/1

8/20

1003

/26/

2010

05/0

1/20

1006

/06/

2010

07/1

2/20

1008

/17/

2010

09/2

2/20

1010

/28/

2010

12/0

3/20

1001

/08/

2011

02/1

3/20

1103

/21/

2011

04/2

6/20

1106

/01/

2011

07/0

7/20

1108

/12/

2011

09/1

7/20

1110

/23/

2011

11/2

8/20

1101

/03/

2012

2/8/

2012

3/15

/201

24/

20/2

012

5/26

/201

27/

1/20

128/

6/20

129/

11/2

012

10/1

7/20

1211

/22/

2012

12/2

8/20

12

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Folsom Storage (AF) Oct 1, 2008 through Jan 17, 2013

10/0

2/20

0811

/07/

2008

12/1

3/20

0801

/18/

2009

02/2

3/20

0903

/31/

2009

05/0

6/20

0906

/11/

2009

07/1

7/20

0908

/22/

2009

09/2

7/20

0911

/02/

2009

12/0

8/20

0901

/13/

2010

02/1

8/20

1003

/26/

2010

05/0

1/20

1006

/06/

2010

07/1

2/20

1008

/17/

2010

09/2

2/20

1010

/28/

2010

12/0

3/20

1001

/08/

2011

02/1

3/20

1103

/21/

2011

04/2

6/20

1106

/01/

2011

07/0

7/20

1108

/12/

2011

09/1

7/20

1110

/23/

2011

11/2

8/20

1101

/03/

2012

2/8/

2012

3/15

/201

24/

20/2

012

5/26

/201

27/

1/20

128/

6/20

129/

11/2

012

10/1

7/20

1211

/22/

2012

12/2

8/20

12

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

New Melones Storage (AF) Oct 1, 2008 through Jan 17, 2013

10/0

2/20

0811

/07/

2008

12/1

3/20

0801

/18/

2009

02/2

3/20

0903

/31/

2009

05/0

6/20

0906

/11/

2009

07/1

7/20

0908

/22/

2009

09/2

7/20

0911

/02/

2009

12/0

8/20

0901

/13/

2010

02/1

8/20

1003

/26/

2010

05/0

1/20

1006

/06/

2010

07/1

2/20

1008

/17/

2010

09/2

2/20

1010

/28/

2010

12/0

3/20

1001

/08/

2011

02/1

3/20

1103

/21/

2011

04/2

6/20

1106

/01/

2011

07/0

7/20

1108

/12/

2011

09/1

7/20

1110

/23/

2011

11/2

8/20

1101

/03/

2012

2/8/

2012

3/15

/201

24/

20/2

012

5/26

/201

27/

1/20

128/

6/20

129/

11/2

012

10/1

7/20

1211

/22/

2012

12/2

8/20

12

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Millerton Storage (AF) Oct 1, 2008 through Jan 17, 2013

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2.7

15.7

32.8 33.4

Tracking 8SI and Probability Funnel DiagramDate of Estimated Projection 1/17/2013

Shasta ReservoirAnnual Inflow Projections

• Inflow to date: 1697 TAF• 15 Year Average Inflow to date: 1,528 TAF

• 90% Exceedence Projection: 5,150 TAF• 50% Exceedence Projection: 6,650 TAF

• Historical WY Average: 5,979 TAF

Shasta ReservoirAnnual Inflow Projections

New Melones Reservoir Annual Inflow Projections

• Inflow to date: 184 TAF• 15 Year Average Inflow to date: 197 TAF

• 90% Exceedence Projection: 760 TAF• 50% Exceedence Projection: 1192 TAF

New Melones Reservoir Annual Inflow Projections

90-day Precipitation Forecast

Chart from NOAA - CNRFC

17 JAN 2013

Monthly Precipitation Forecast

Chart from NOAA - CNRFC

Thank You

South-Central California Area OfficeFresno, CA

Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2013

2013 Friant Division Outlook

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-Jan2013-to-

Date 1.17 5.54 7.22 1.24 15.17

2012 3.05 1.92 0.00 5.90 1.50 6.76 5.04 0.36 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.87

Average77-12 2.51 4.33 6.62 8.16 7.94 7.03 3.75 2.09 0.70 0.44 0.17 0.84 21.62

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

2013 Huntington Lake Precipitation Outlook

2012 2013-To-Date

Perc

ent o

f Ave

rage

(%)

Crane Valley 24,397 AF45,500 AF

Mammoth Pool 37,665 AF122,000 AF

Edison Lake 8,410 AF125,000 AF

Huntington Lake35,838 AF89,000 AF

Florence Lake 5,644 AF64,000 AF

Shaver Lake 85,202 AF136,000 AF

Kerckhoff Reservoir3,691 AF4,188 AF

Redinger Lake22,549 AF26,000 AF

Millerton Lake302,518 AF520,500 AF

San Joaquin Basin Upstream Storages

  January 22, 2013

Total Capacity

2013 % Capacity

2012 % Capacity

Total Upstream Storage 223,396 611,688 37% 45%

Millerton Lake Storage 302,518 520,500 58% 61%

Total Storage 520,240 1,132,188 46% 52%

-

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

520,000

760,000

333,800

455,700

2013 Water Supply Outlook Millerton LakeClass 1 Water Supply Available (AF) Interim Restoration Flows (AF)

Exce

edan

ce J

anua

ry 1

For

ecas

t

90% Exceedance

65% Class 1Normal Dry

WY: 1,020,000 AFA-J: 665,000 AF

50% Exceedance

95% Class 1Normal Wet

WY: 1,690,000 AFA-J: 1,137,000 AF

Note:January 22, 2013: 302,518 AFJanuary 22, 2012: 316,045 AF

Maximum Lake Storage (EOM)June 9, 2012: 438,351 AF50% 2013 Forecast: 376,800 AF (June)90% 2013 Forecast: 295,600 AF (June)

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep120,000

145,000

170,000

195,000

220,000

245,000

270,000

295,000

320,000

345,000

370,000

395,000

420,000

445,000

470,000

495,000

520,000

2013 Millerton Lake Storage OutlookWY 2013-to-date 50% Exceedence 90% Exceedence Average 70-12

Stor

age

(AF)

2013 Cachuma Project Outlook

  Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-Jan

2013-to-date 0.12 1.34 2.95 0.65 5.06

2012 0.47 2.82 0.35 1.58 0.43 3.63 3.21 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 5.22

Average77-12 0.91 1.60 2.91 5.37 5.06 4.63 1.35 0.42 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.12 10.78

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

2013 Bradbury Dam Precipitation OutlookWY 2012 WY 2013-to-date

Perc

ent o

f Ave

rage

(%)

2013 Cachuma Project Water Supply Outlook

• January 23, 2013:• Storage Capacity: 195,578 AF• Current Storage: 133,265 AF (68% capacity)

• January 23, 2012: 171,367 AF (88% capacity)• Water Supply: 25,714 AF/100%

Thank You

Klamath Basin Area OfficeKlamath Falls, OR

Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2013

Klamath Basin Outlook

Klamath Basin Watershed

Klamath Basin Precipitation and SWE

Upper Klamath Lake Elevation

Clear Lake Elevation

Gerber Reservoir Elevation

NRCS Upper Klamath Lake January 22nd Inflow Forecasts

% Exceedance Inflow Forecast

Forecasted Inflow Volume (AF)

% of Average Inflow

Est Klamath Project UKL Supply (AF)

% of Maximum UKL Irrigation Supply

50% 600,000 92% 381,000 98%70% 524,000 80% 357,000 92%95% 347,150 53% 295,000 76%

Upper Klamath Lake NRCS March through September Inflow Forecasts

NRCS Clear Lake January 22nd Inflow Forecasts

% Exceedance Inflow Forecast

Forecasted Inflow Volume (AF)

% of Average Inflow

Est Klamath Project Clear Lake Supply

(AF)

% of Estimated Clear Lake

Irrigation Demand50% 88,000 95% 36,621 100%70% 63,240 68% 16,690 49%90% 26,040 28% 13,000 38%

Clear Lake NRCS February through July Inflow Forecasts

NRCS Gerber Reservoir January 22nd Inflow Forecasts

% Exceedance Inflow Forecast

Forecasted Inflow Volume (AF)

% of Average Inflow

Est Klamath Project Gerber Supply (AF)

% of Estimated Gerber Irrigation

Demand50% 36,000 88% 53,529 100%70% 25,010 61% 41,645 100%90% 8,200 20% 30,400 87%

Gerber Reservoir NRCS February through July Inflow Forecasts

Thank You

Lahontan Basin Area OfficeCarson City, NV

Water Supply OutlookJanuary 2013

Water Year Precipitation % of Normal10/1/2012 – 1/22/2013

LBAO Water Year Precipitation To Date

Tahoe Truckee Carson Humboldt Walker0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140% 129%121%

111%

93%

118%

River Basin

% o

f Ave

rage

to D

ate

Current LBAO Snowpack Conditions(Snow Water Equivalent)

Tahoe Truckee Carson Humboldt Walker0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

107%

126% 120%

85%

126%

River Basin

% o

f the

Med

ian

to D

ate

LBAO Reservoir Storage

Tahoe Prosser Stampede Boca Lahontan Rye Patch0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

50%

31%

76%

39%

23%

9%

122%

103% 105%114%

48%

26%

% of Capacity % of Average

Reservoir

%

LBAO April-July Runoff

Tahoe Truckee Carson Humboldt Walker0%

50%

100%

150%

200%211% 215% 217%

114%

180%

47% 53%

26%7%

42%

84% 92%82%

45%

108%

Actual 2011 Volume Actual 2012 Volume Forecasted 2013 Volume

River Basin

% o

f Ave

rage

Historical Truckee River Runoff April-July

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Year

Apr

il-Ju

ly V

olum

e (1

000

AF) Average

42-yr Volume260 KAF

2013 Forecast240 KAF92% Avg.

Thank You

The 46th Annual WUC Presentation at:http://www.usbr.gov/mp/pa/water

Q and A