40x35: A Zero-Carbon Energy Target for the World’s Largest Economies

7/29/2019 40x35: A Zero-Carbon Energy Target for the Worlds Largest Economies

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1 Center or American Progress | 40x35: A Zero-Carbon Energy Target or the Worlds Largest Economies

40x35: A Zero-Carbon Energy Target

for the Worlds Largest EconomiesAndrew Light, Mari Hernandez, and Adam James March 7, 2013

In he pas several years, small groups o some o he worlds larges carbon pollu-

ers have joined orces o reduce heir greenhouse gas emissions as par o heir overall

eors o slow he pace o dangerous global warming. Tese eors include he G20

leaders 2009 pledge o phase ou ossil-uel subsidies;1 he launch o a number o eors

on clean energy cooperaion hrough he global Clean Energy Miniserial saring in

2010;2

and he creaion o he Climae and Clean Air Coaliion o Reduce Shor-LivedClimae Polluans a year ago, which sared wih six naions and has now grown o 27

counries plus he European Union.3

Following on hese eors, we propose ha he 17 paries in he Major Economies

Forum, he U.S.-led coaliion o he worlds larges carbon emiters,4 se a arge o gener-

aing 40 percen o heir elecriciy rom zero-carbon sources by 2035wha we call he

40x35 arge.

Our analysis shows ha meeing his arge is no only highly easible bu, i me, would

also reduce hese counries cumulaive CO2 emissions by approximaely 6.4 giga-ons6,398 million meric onsby 2035. While here are oher kinds o renewable

energy arges ha would resul in greaer emissions reducionsor example, arges

ha exclude hydroelecriciy or nuclear powerwe argue ha he 40 percen all-inclusive

zero-carbon arge is more poliically easible and also sucienly ambiious o be worh

pursuing. Achieving his arge would be a signican conribuion o meeing he global

goal o he inernaional climae negoiaions o sabilizing emperaure increases caused

by climae change a 2 degrees Celsius over preindusrial levels by he end o his cenury.5

As we will show, projecions or a zero-carbon elecriciy mix or many o he paries o

he Major Economies Forum by 2035 are already quie highsome naions are already

headed beyond he 40 percen arge on a business-as-usual pahway. So ar, however,

none o hese counries has made a documened commimen or achieving any energy

goals beyond 2030.

Te exisence o a se arge among he Major Economies Forum paries would help

proec projeced emissions reducions rom backsliding due o changes in uel coss,


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currenly unoreseen policy changes in hese counries as governmens change, and

oher unanicipaed consequences. A common arge by hese developed and developing

counries could galvanize he range o naional-level policies already in place, and increase

he ambiion o all paries o hi he arge. More imporanly, hese counries could make

a common commimen along wih an agreemen o share bes pracices o expand he

renewable elecriciy secor, cooperae on echnology developmen and deploymen, and

srenghen exising bilaeral agreemens beween paries ha suppor hese ends.

We will also demonsrae ha pairing such a zero-carbon elecriciy arge wih an

energy eciency goal would be incredibly benecial. Firs, incorporaing energy e-

ciency rom he beginning in counries ha are likely o see a surge in elecriciy demand

over he coming years will creae more susainable smar energy sysems in hose

counries. Second, reducing oal energy demand means ha each invesmen in new,

zero-carbon generaion couns or more in erms o oal emissions reducions. Demand

reducion will enable many counries o more easily hi his zero-carbon arge.

In his issue brie we presen he raionale or pursuing emissions reducions hroughhe Major Economies Forum, our analysis on a range o arge scenarios as applied o

he orum paries, and our recommendaion or acion.

An action agenda for the Major Economies Forum

While he Major Economies Forums roos go back o he Bush adminisraions Major

Economies Meeings,6 he Obama adminisraion launched he orum in 2009 as a place

or cooperaion among he worlds 17 larges greenhouse gas polluers: Ausralia, Brazil,

Canada, China, he European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ialy, Japan,Mexico, Russia, Souh Arica, Souh Korea, he Unied Kingdom, and he Unied Saes.7

Unlike he U.N. Framework Convenion on Climae Change, or UNFCCC, he Major

Economies Forum is no ormally consruced as a reay-making body bu is nonehe-

less a leadership-level convening process ha can pursue opporuniies or muual coop-

eraion among is members. While he larger U.N. climae process includes 194 paries,

he 17 members o he Major Economies Forum represen approximaely 80 percen

o all global greenhouse gas emissions.8 A is incepion, he hope was ha he Major

Economies Forum could provide an opporuniy or rank dialogue beween member

counries abou achieving emissions reducions.

While many o is meeings have served more as a place or advanced debae in a smaller

orum or each years U.N. climae negoiaions, he Major Economies Forum has made

some progress on is own. During is July 2009 meeing in LAquila, Ialy, Presiden

Barack Obama amously embraced he goal aken up by he G8 ha developed counries

should aim o reduce heir carbon emissions by 80 percen below 2005 levels by 2050 as

a air share o heir global miigaion obligaions.9


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Early on, various groups o counries in he orum also developed echnology Acion

Plans, which deailed proposals o accelerae progress in specic secors o clean energy

echnology.10 Developmen o hese plans in urn led o he creaion o he Clean Energy

Miniserial meeingshe ourh o which will ake place in New Delhi in Aprilbring-

ing ogeher he energy minisers rom Major Economies Forum paries or collabora-

ion in a number o key secors, including advanced vehicles, wind, solar, and carbon

capure and sorage.11

U.S. Special Envoy or Climae Change odd Sern announced in January ha he

Obama adminisraion is ready or a more direc acion agenda or he Major

Economies Forum.12 Te iming is ripe or movemen in his body, given where we are

in he larger inernaional climae negoiaions.

In 2011 he U.N. Framework Convenion on Climae Change began a process o creae

a new global climae agreemen under he auspices o he Durban Plaorma new

negoiaing rack specically designed o creae a new binding global climae reay o

cover miigaion and adapaion ha would be applicable o all parieso be nalizedin 2015 bu no o ake eec unil 2020 a he earlies.13 Te good news is ha his new

agreemen will presumably include some level o greenhouse gas cus or he bigges

developed and developing counriesunlike he Kyoo Proocol, which only required

reducions rom he developed counries ha raied he reay.14

Te bad news is ha since his new reay won go ino eec unil 2020, i will no

address wha is now recognized as he criical ambiion gaphe gap beween he level

ha mos counries in he world have already commited o cu heir emissions o by

2020 and he cus needed o say on a pahway in which we could sill easibly sabilize

human-caused global emperaure increase a 2 degrees Celsius by he end o he cen-ury. Overcoming his gap may require doubling curren unilaeral global commimens

rom all counries ha have publicly pledged wha hey are willing o do o lower heir

emissions by 2020.15 While he Durban Plaorm also includes a worksream addressing

he ambiion gap, he submissions o dae have no been very helpul, and we have low

expecaions ha i will acually achieve any meaningul oucome in ime o address his

gap, given he racious poliics o he U.N. process.16

While he U.N. climae alks are eecively locked up in a process o creaing a new

pos-2020 reay, he need or addiional inernaional cooperaion ouside o hese

negoiaions is essenial. Even i he paries in he U.N. Framework Convenion on

Climae Change agreed o a bold, highly ambiious, and legally sringen global reay

or emissions reducions by 2015, his new reay may arrive only in ime o govern a

world condemned o emperaure increases a 4 degrees Celsius or more by 2100and

he disasrous consequences which would resulunless more ambiious measures are

underaken o reduce emissions hrough his decade.17


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Te advanages o he Major Economies Forum, paricularly in he conex o climae

acion, are relaively sraighorward. Tis smaller, high-level working group is more

nimble and unhindered by he bureaucraic processes ha can someimes derail he

larger U.N. climae alks. Addiionally, since he orums member counries collecively

represen 80 percen o global carbon emissions, decisions made in he orum can be

incredibly ransormaive in a relaively shor period o ime. Jus as imporanly, using he

Major Economies Forum or achieving arges such as he ones we describe below doesno hreaen he inegriy or auhoriy o he U.N. process. While a comprehensive global

agreemen on emissions cus, adapaion, nance, and echnology sharing is essenial,

more discree arges among he major climae polluers ha do no place a limi on uure

ambiion can be essenial or progress while a new global agreemen is in process.

Acion by he Major Economies Forum also answers one o he common new responses

among hose previously opposed o climae acion. During he las elecion season,

Republican presidenial candidae and ormer Massachusets Gov. Mit Romney

remarked ha unilaeral acion by he Unied Saes o reduce is carbon emissions was

uile. Te realiy is ha he problem is called global warming, he said, no Americawarming.18 More recenly, in response o Presiden Obamas prominen exhoraion or

acion on climae change in his second Inaugural Address, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA)

remarked ha, given he global naure o he problem, We ough o be working on an

inernaional reay as opposed o individual legislaion or he Unied Saes.19 While

we srongly disagree ha here is no poin o acion a home on reducing our carbon

emissions, boh Gov. Romney and Sen. Grassley are correc in saying ha coordinaed

inernaional acion is neededor else he gains rom our domesic eors in erms o

creaing new jobs or promoing energy independence will be swamped by he impacs

o desrucive climae change.

Scenarios for renewable energy targets in the Major Economies Forum

Te Major Economies Forum oers a unique opporuniy o subsanially reduce car-

bon dioxide emissions hrough adoping a common zero-carbon arge among parici-

paing counries. In his analysis, we examine he oucome and easibiliy o eiher a 35

percen or 40 percen zero-carbon elecriciy sandard by 2035 or all o he orums par-

ies under our dieren scenarios. Tese include opions or including hydroelecriciy,

nuclear power, and renewables under he arge, or only subses o he hree. Tis covers

he specrum o zero-carbon generaionrom renewable sources such as solar, wind,

and hydropower, o no-carbon sources such as nuclear energy.

We analyzed our scenarios o deermine boh he resuling ambiion gaps or each pary

in he Major Economies Forum o mee a desired arge and he oal carbon dioxide

emissions reducions i all paries embraced and achieved he arge:20


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Scenario 1: 35 percen renewable elecriciy arge by 2035, excluding boh hydroelec-

riciy and nuclear power Scenario 2: 35 percen renewable elecriciy arge by 2035, including hydroelecriciy

bu no nuclear power Scenario 3: 35 percen zero-carbon arge by 2035, including boh hydroelecriciy

and nuclear power

Scenario 4: 40 percen zero-carbon arge by 2035, including boh hydroelecriciyand nuclear power

ables 58 in he appendix show he projeced 2035 business-as-usual zero-carbon

elecriciy generaion or each o he orums paries, which we were able o analyze wih

currenly available daa; he addiional zero-carbon generaionin erawat hours and

as a percenage o oal supplyneeded o mee each arge; and he emissions reduc-

ions resuling rom he arge under each scenario. I is imporan o noe ha while

Souh Arica and Indonesia oen appear o be he urhes away rom he arge in each

o hese scenarios, ha is in par a resul o he limiaions o our daa. Tese counries

were he only wo where we were unable o direcly use daa rom he InernaionalEnergy Agencys mos recen World Energy Oulook repor or o iner he oucome or

a pary based on a larger daase included in ha repor. (Our mehodology or genera-

ing gures or hese wo paries is explained in he appendix.)

Te oucomes o each scenario are urher discussed below.

Scenario 1

Because o limiaions on daa accessibiliy and availabiliyexplained in he appen-dixwe reduced he 17 paries o he Major Economies Forum o 11 or he purposes

o our analysis over all our scenarios. Te 35 percen renewable elecriciy arge by

2035, excluding boh hydroelecriciy and nuclear power, is he only scenario in which

all 11 paries mus go beyond heir business-as-usual projecions o mee he arge. As

a resul, Scenario 1 yields he highes cumulaive CO2 emissions reducions, including

business-as-usual reducions and reducions achieved because o he arge, o he our

scenarios, a approximaely 8.1 gigaons8,087 million meric onsby 2035. Te

CO2 emissions reducions ha resul solely rom he arge and no including business-

as-usual reducions would be abou 6 gigaons5,951 million meric onswhich

would represen 30 percen o projeced global CO2 emissions in 2035.


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TABLE 1

CO2 emissions reductions by 2035

Scenario 1

2035 additional CO2

emissions reductions (in

million metric tons) from

target

2035 total cumulative

emissions reductions from

target and BAU (in million

metric tons)

2035 additional emissions

reductions as a percent

of total global 2035 CO2

emissions

5,951 8,087 30%

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Business as usual

Gap between business

as usual and target

Asia

oceania

Brazil

Chin

a

Europe

anUnion

India

Indo

nesia

Japa

n

OEC

DAm

ericas

Russia

South

Afric

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Percentage nonhydro renewable energy generation

Major Economies Forum party

35/35 target

FigurE 1

Additional percentage of nonhydro renewable generation to meet 35 percent

target by 2035

Note: N-H = nonhydro; RE = renewable energy; Gen = generation; BAU = business as usual; MEF = Major Economies Forum

* The ollowing Major Economies Forum countries data are captured under the regions specifed: Australia (Asia Oceania), France (European Union),

Germany (European Union), Italy (European Union), South Korea (Asia Oceania), Mexico (OECD Americas) and the United K ingdom (European Union).Due to the lack o country-level data or certain Major Economies Forum countries rom the I nternational Energy Agency, we used 2030 projections

or Indonesia and South Arica, and we were unable to exclude three non-Major Economies Forum countries: Chile, Israel, and New Zealand. In this

analysis, Asia Oceania excludes Japan and OECD Americas excludes the United States.

Sources: International Energy Agency (World Energy Outlook 2012); The Institute o Energy Economics-Japan, The ASEAN Centre or Energy and The National

ESSPA Project Teams (The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook); and the South Arica Department o Energy (Integrated Resource Plan or Electricity 20102030).


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Scenario 2

Te 35 percen renewable elecriciy arge by 2035, including hydroelecriciy bu no

nuclear power, boh reduces he ambiion gap or each o he Major Economies Forum

paries and would allow hree paries o mee he arge based on heir projeced business-

as-usual generaion mix: Brazil, he European Union, and he Organisaion or Economic

Co-operaion and Developmen, or OECD, Americasexcluding he Unied Saes,which means Canada and Mexicohough given Canadas expansive hydroelecriciy

resources, i is more likely o hi he arge han Mexico. Wih 8 o he 11 paries increas-

ing heir zero-carbon generaion by 2035, he oal cumulaive CO2 emissions reducions

would equal approximaely 6.6 gigaons6,555 million meric ons. Te CO2 emissions

reducions resuling solely rom he arge would be 3.5 gigaons3,474 million meric

onsor 17 percen o projeced global CO2 emissions in 2035.

TABLE 2


Scenario 2

2035 additional CO2



target




metric tons)




emissions

3,474 6,555 17%

B

razil

Chi

na

Europe

anUnion

India

Indon

esia

Jap

an

OEC

DAme

ricas

Russia

SouthA

frica

Unite

dState

s

Percentage renewable energyincluding hydrogeneration

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Asiaoce

ania


as usual and target

Business as usual

Business as usual

percent above target


35/35 target

FigurE 2

Additional percentage of renewableincluding hydrogeneration to meet

35 percent target by 2035



Germany (European Union), Italy (European Union), South Korea (Asia Oceania), Mexico (OECD Americas) and the United K ingdom (European Union).

Due to the lack o country-level data or certain Major Economies Forum countries rom the I nternational Energy Agency, we used 2030 projections






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Scenario 3

Te 35 percen zero-carbon arge by 2035, including boh hydroelecriciy and nuclear

power, is he mos easily atainable arge since i would require he lowes amoun o

addiional zero-carbon generaion overall ou o he our scenarios. In his scenario, six

Major Economies Forum pariesOECD Asia Oceania, Brazil, he European Union,

Japan, OECD Americas (Canada and Mexico), and he Unied Saesare able o meeor exceed he arge. China and Russia would have o increase heir zero-carbon gen-

eraion arge by less han 10 percen. Jus hree pariesIndia, Indonesia, and Souh

Aricawould have o increase heir zero-carbon generaion more han 15 percen over

projeced business as usual. Te oal cumulaive CO2 emissions reducions resuling

rom Scenario 3 would be 5.5 gigaons5,487 million meric ons. Te CO2 emissions

reducions rom jus he arge would be approximaely 1.5 gigaons1,463 million

meric onsrepresening 7 percen o projeced global CO2 emissions in 2035.

TABLE 3


Scenario 3

2035 additional CO2



target




metric tons)




emissions

1,463 5,487 7%

Brazil

Ch

ina

Europe

anUn

ion

In

dia

Indon

esia

Japa

n

OEC

DAmer

icas

Russia

SouthAf

rica

Unite

dStates

Percentage zero-carbon generation

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Asia

oceania


as usual and target

Business as usual

percent zero-carbon

Business as usual



35/35 target

FigurE 3

Additional percentage of zero-carbon generationIncluding hydro and

nuclearto meet 35 percent target by 2035










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Scenario 4

Scenario 4 increases he arge o 40 percen zero-carbon elecriciy, including boh

hydroelecriciy and nuclear power, by 2035he 40x35 arge. Under his scenario, our

Major Economies Forum pariesOECD Asia Oceania, Brazil, he European Union, and

OECD Americas (Canada and Mexico)will mee or exceed he 40x35 arge. Te oher

seven counriesChina, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Souh Arica, and he UniedSaeswill need o increase heir zero-carbon elecriciy generaion o mee he arge.

Under Scenario 4, oal cumulaive CO2 emissions reducions would equal abou 6.4

gigaons6,398 million meric onsby 2035. Te CO2 emissions reducions resuling

rom he 40x35 arge would be 2.4 gigaons2,374 million meric onswhich would

represen abou 12 percen o projeced global CO2 emissions in 2035.

TABLE 4


Scenario 4

2035 additional CO2



target




metric tons)




emissions

2,374 6,398 12%

40/35 target

Brazil

Chin

a

Europ

eanUn

ion

India

Indo

nesia

Japa

n

OE

CDAmericas

Russia

South

Afric

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Percentage zero-carbon generation

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Asia

oceania


as usual and target

Business as usual

percent zero-carbon

Business as usual



FigurE 4

Additional percentage of zero-carbon generationincluding hydro and

nuclearto meet 40 percent target by 2035, by MEF party










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Comparing the scenarios

o ascerain he mos poliically viable and highes-impac scenario, we perormed a

comparaive analysis o he varying ambiion needed by dieren counries o hi dier-

en uel-mix arges by 2035. Figure 5shows he necessary percen increase in zero-

carbon elecriciy generaion by arge and counry, and he oal cumulaive emissions

reducions resuling rom each scenario.

Tis char il lusraes he varying ambiion gaps by each o he orums paries, as we have

broken hem ou, under each scenario. As he char shows, Scenario 1 would require

each pary o increase is nonhydroelecriciy non-nuclear zero-carbon elecriciy

generaion. Compare his wih Scenario 2 and Scenario 3, wherein adding rs hydro-

elecriciy and hen nuclear power as well o he arge would decrease he amoun o

zero-carbon generaion needed o mee each arge. In oher words, i is easier or all

counries o hi arges ha include nuclear power and hydroelecriciy, as opposed o

jus renewables. Finally, in Scenario 4, where he overall arge goes up o 40 percen, he

ambiion gaps or he ve paries included in Scenario 3 increase, and wo oher paries

mus add zero-carbon generaion o mee he new arge.

Asia oceania

Brazil

0

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000 China

European Union

India

Indonesia

Japan

OECD Americas

Russia

South Africa

United States

2035 emissions

reductions

Percentage gap between

business as usual and target by 2035

Total cumulative emissions

reductions by 2035 (MMT)

35 percent

non-hydro

renewable energy

35 percent

renewable energy

35 percent

renewable energy

and nuclear

40 percent

renewable energy

and nuclear

8,807

6,555

5,487

6,398

FigurE 5

Major Economies Forum party ambition gap and total cumulative emissions

reductions by scenario

Note: N-H = nonhydro; RE = renewable energy; BAU = business as usual; MEF = Major Economies Forum


Germany (European Union), Italy (European Union), South Korea (Asia Oceania), Mexico (OECD Americas), and the United K ingdom (European Union).







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o help inerpre hese daa, able 5 shows he easibiliy o a given counry s abiliy o

hi he range o arges using color coding:

Te green color represens a counry ha needs a 0 percen o 15 percen increase in

zero-carbon elecriciy generaion over business-as-usual projecions. Te yellow color represens a counry ha needs a 16 percen o 25 percen increase

over business-as-usual projecions. Te red color represens a counry ha needs a 26 percen o 35 percen increase over

business-as-usual projecions.

A glance a he our columns reveals ha Scenario 3 and Scenario 4 are he easies o

hi under curren business-as-usual projecions. Addiionally, here is litle dierence

beween he counries ha would have diculy hiting he Scenario 3 arge and he

Scenario 4 arge, hough he percen increase needed in each case o achieve his goal is

imporan or reasons we will discuss below.

TABLE 5

Feasibility of meeting scenario targets

Scenario 1: 35 percent

N-H RE by 2035


RE by 2035


RE plus nuclear by 2035


RE plus nuclear by 2035

MEF country

or region*

N-H RE Gen percent gap

between BAU and target by 2035

RE gen percent gap between

BAU and target by 2035

RE plus nuclear gen percent gap


RE plus nuclear gen percent gap


Asia Oceania 24% 20% 0% 0%

Brazil 24% 0% 0% 0%

China 27% 15% 7% 12%

European Union 9% 0% 0% 0%

India 28% 20% 16% 21%

Indonesia 30% 26% 26% 31%

Japan 23% 16% 0% 1%

OECD Americas 25% 0% 0% 0%

Russia 32% 19% 3% 8%

South Africa 35% 31% 28% 33%

United States 20% 15% 0% 3%


* The ollowing Major Economies Forum countries data are captured under the regions specifed: Australia (Asia Oceania), France (European Union), Germany (European Union), Italy (European Union), South Kore

(Asia Oceania), Mexico (OECD Americas), and the United Kingdom (European Union). Due to the lack o country-level data or certain Major Economies Forum and non-Major Economies Forum countries rom the

International Energy Agency, we used 2030 projections or Indonesia and South Arica, and we were unable to exclude three non-Major Economies Forum countries: Chile, Israel, and New Zealand. In this analysis,

Asia Oceania excludes Japan and OECD Americas excludes the United States.

Sources: International Energy Agency ( World Energy Outlook 2012); The Institute o Energy Economics-Japan, The ASEAN Centre or Energy and The National ESSPA Project Teams (The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook)

and the South Arica Department o Energy (Integrated Resource Plan or Electricity 20102030).


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40 percent zero-carbon electricity generation by 2035

We recommend ha he paries o he Major Economies Forum adop a arge o 40 per-

cen zero-carbon elecriciy generaion by 2035, which includes boh hydroelecriciy

and nuclear power. Te 40x35 arge would reduce global CO2 emissions an addiional

12 percen over projeced 2035 levels, bringing cumulaive CO2 emissions down by 6.4

gigaons by 2035.

Our analysis shows ha all developed counries in he Major Economies Forum should

be able o hi he 35 percen zero-carbon arge, including boh hydroelecriciy and

nuclear power, by 2035as indicaed by Scenario 3. Te downside o Scenario 3 is ha i

migh appear o pu oo much o he burden on developing counries o achieve he arge

because o heir lower saring poin. I he arge is raised o 40 percen, however, hen he

oal reducions go up, and he playing eld levels since he Unied Saes and Japan sill

have o increase heir ambiionhey are a 36.7 percen and 38.7 percen, respecively

along wih China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and Souh Aricaand poenially Mexico,

depending on how hey disaggregae rom Canada in a more specied analysis. All o heseacors would make he 40x35 arge more poliically viable as a orm o inernaional

cooperaion, even i i raises he bar o agreeing o he arge wihin each counry. I migh

be possible, hough, o allow more ime or some paries o hi he arge or adop slighly

variable arges based on curren business-as-usual projecions or oher crieria.

Addiionally, i is likely he case ha he Unied Kingdom and Ialy would also have o

increase heir ambiion once hey are disaggregaed rom he European Union, given

heir limied nuclear resources compared o France. More imporanly, increasing he

arge rom 35 percen o 40 percen zero-carbon elecriciy generaion adds nearly one

gigaon o CO2 emissions reducions o he cumulaive oal by 2035.

In addiion o Scenario 4 being more atracive when compared o he oher hree sce-

narios due o greaer ambiion sharing and overall carbon reducions, he 40x35 arge

would help lock in any business-as-usual emissions reducions ha are no currenly

backed by naional arges or goals. Te nal emissions reducions modeled in our sudy,

which help jusiy adopion o he arge, include boh business-as-usual emissions

reducions rom 2010 orward and he added reducions rom an increase in ambiion

or hose paries ha are no expeced o mee he sipulaed arge in each scenario.

Because business-as-usual projecions or uure deploymen o renewables and nuclear

power or each o he Major Economies Forums paries do no represen curren policy

commimenssince no pary has ye o adop his argea arge and commimen in

he orum would help ensure ha currenly projeced emissions reducions are realized

and would also hedge agains backsliding in he case o declining ossil-uel prices, prior-

iy changes a he naional level ollowing elecions, and oher unanicipaed acors.


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Addiionally, he wide range o policies already in place a he naional level is boh encour-

aging and problemaic. Te good news is ha 14 Major Economies Forum counries15,

i you coun sae renewable porolio sandards in he Unied Saesalready have some

orm o renewable energy or elecriciy arges in place.21 Tese arges may vary in scope

and ambiion by counry, bu our assessmen is ha hey would be crucial sepping sones

o reaching a more ambiious 40x35 arge. Te added value o a 40x35 arge in he Major

Economies Forum is ha i would aggregae and galvanize his pachwork o counry-leveland subnaional policies, much in he same way ha a naional clean energy sandard

in he Unied Saes would ie ogeher exising sae renewable porolio sandards and

would encourage saes wihou a sandard o increase heir ambiion and cooperae on

bes pracices wih saes ha are urher along.22

Tis poenial o creae an overarching arge among he major economies would likely

have signican economic implicaions. Bes pracices and poenial cooperaion on he

developmen and deploymen o clean energy echnologies could spur new bilaeral and

mulilaeral agreemens and, in places such as he European Union and Ausralia ha

have launched carbon markeswhich se a radable limi on greenhouse gas emissionsin dieren secorsmay encourage he creaion o a more resilien elecric grid ha

allows or he more ecien delivery o renewable elecriciy rom sources o end-users

or advance he eeciveness o carbon-rading mechanisms.

Alhough we did no analyze an eciency arge in his sudy, we recognize ha he inclu-

sion o an eciency arge in he 40x35 scenario could signicanly increase by several

orders o magniude he emissions reducions achieved by such a program or decreasing

power demand. Recen modeling by he U.S. Naional Renewable Energy Laboraory

shows a large poenial increase in cumulaive emissions reducions in he Unied Saes

i an eciency arge is added o a 25 percen by 2025 renewable elecriciy sandard.23

Because mos o he increase in elecriciy demand ou o 2035 is rom developing coun-

ries60 percen rom China, India, and he Middle Easincreasing energy eciency

in he building secor, which accouns or one-hird o global energy consumpion, could

drasically reduce demand by incorporaing energy savings o new consrucion projecs

and could hereore reduce he need o build new ossil-uel generaion.24 As such, he

paries o he Major Economies Forum should srongly consider pairing a zero-carbon

generaion arge wih an energy eciency arge i hey ake up a proposal o his ype.

Alernaively, individual counries should consider adoping a complemenary energy

eciency arge as a means o maximize he role ha zero-carbon generaion will play

in meeing he Major Economies Forum arge. o illusrae his, consider ha one

gigawat o new zero-carbon generaion couns or less when demand is higher, and

morein erms o oal percenagewhen demand is lower. Paricularly in he devel-

oping counries ha will be building new generaion o mee demand, his kind o arge

would increase he bang or he buck on each invesmen in zero-carbon resources.


14/19


Next steps for the United States

I he Major Economies Forum paries adop he 40x35 arge, hen he Unied Saes will

have o increase is zero-carbon elecriciy generaion by 3 percen, or abou 182 billion

kilowat hours, over business-as-usual projecions. Alhough a 40x35 ederal clean energy

sandard in he Unied Saes would ensure ha he new Major Economies Forum arge

would be me, he poliical easibiliy o his in he near erm is very low. Te adopiono a clean energy sandard ha designaes a arge or renewable energy developmen on

public lands could also increase clean energy generaion in he Unied Saes.25 In lieu o an

overarching naional policy, he Unied Saes could coninue o pursue greaer renewable

energy developmen hrough various deparmenal policies and programs. Te U.S. Army,

or example, plans o deploy one gigawat o renewable energy by 2025.26

A he sae level, policymakers could adop or srenghen renewable energy sandards

in order o increase zero-carbon elecriciy generaion and reach he 40x35 arge.

Renewable energy sandards are regulaory mandaes ha se specic arges requir-

ing uiliies o generae a cerain percenage o elecriciy rom clean energy sources.Currenly, 29 saes plus he Disric o Columbia have hese sandards.27 Sae policy-

makers should ocus on srenghening curren renewable energy sandards and adoping

new arges in saes wihou a clean energy policy.

Conclusion

While he U.N. climae process works hrough he dicul ask o creaing a new

comprehensive climae reay by 2015and hen works ve more years o raiy i by

2020he people o he world are growing more and more impaien. Ye here is litleha can be done, i anyhing, o speed his process along. Developmen o any new

reay is a long and cumbersome process raugh wih derailmensespecially when

close o 200 paries are involved.

In he meanime, we need more acion. We need o ake on he ambiion gap beween wha

he paries who have been willing o ariculae heir 2020 arges have said hey will do and

wha is needed o make i possible o achieve some modicum o climae saey in he uure.

Our duies here are clear. As Presiden Obama pu i in his mos recen Sae o he

Union address, For he sake o our children and our uure, we mus do more o comba

climae change.28 More aggressive seps orward on an acion agenda or he Major

Economies Forum is movemen in he righ direcion. I is cerainly no he only hing

we need o do, nor is i sucien o close he ambiion gap we currenly ace, bu i is

achievable and, a his poin, necessary.

Andrew Light is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. Mari Hernandez is a

Research Associate at the Center. Adam James is a Research Assistant at the Center.


15/19


Appendix

Methodology

Alhough all 17 paries o he Major Economies Forum are represened in some orm

in our analysis, our model includes counry- or region-specic daa or jus 11 par-ieseigh counries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Souh Arica, and

he Unied Saes), he European Union, and wo regional groups (OECD Asia Oceania

and OECD Americas)due o he organizaion o currenly available daases rom

he Inernaional Energy Agency, or IEA.29 Te European Union, OECD Asia Oceania,

and OECD Americas capure daa or he eigh counriesAusralia, Canada, France,

Germany, Ialy, Mexico, Souh Korea, and he Unied Kingdomha are no broken

ou individually in our model. Furher individual assessmens will be needed in some

cases, hough, especially or individual European Union member counries ha ake

par in he Major Economies Forum and are included here in a much larger se o paries

such as he Unied Kingdom and Ialy. Addiionally, due o he lack o counry-leveldaa or cerain orum and nonorum counries available rom he Inernaional Energy

Agency, we used 2030 projecions or Indonesia and Souh Arica, and we were unable

o exclude hree nonorum counries: Chile (included in OECD Americas), Israel, and

New Zealand (boh included in OECD Asia Oceania).

o develop his proposal, he Cener or American Progress calculaed he emissions

reducions using he ollowing seps:

1. Calculae emissions per erawat hour, or Wh, by aking projeced 2035 emissions

rom power generaion and dividing by projeced 2035 ossil-uel elecriciy generaion.2. Calculae addiional zero-carbon generaion needed o reach arge and muliply ha

addiional generaion or each counry or region by he emissions acor calculaed in

he rs sep.

3. Calculae business-as-usual emissions reducions by subracing 2010 zero-carbon

generaion rom 2035 zero carbon generaion and hen muliplying ha by each

emissions acor.

4. Add business-as-usual emissions reducions o reducions rom arge o ge oal

cumulaive emissions reducions in 2035.

Oher han daa or Indonesia and Souh Arica, all counry and regional elecriciy

generaion and CO2 emissions daa are rom he Inernaional Energy Agencys World

Energy Oulook 2012 repor.30 Te 2035 numbers are included under IEAs ables in he

annexes under each counrysor regionsable under Curren Policies Scenario, so

hey refec business-as-usual projecions and accoun or growh in elecriciy demand.

Noe ha he IEAs World Energy Oulook 2012 repor does no provide counry-level

elecriciy or emissions daa or every Major Economies Forum counry, so he ollow-


16/19


ing counries daa are capured under he regions specied: Ausralia (Asia Oceania),

France (European Union), Germany (European Union), Ialy (European Union), Mexico

(OECD Americas), Souh Korea (Asia Oceania), and he Unied Kingdom (European

Union). Addiionally, we used 2030 projecions or Indonesia and Souh Arica due o

he lack o counry-specic daa or hese counries ou o 2035, and we were unable

o exclude hree nonorum counries daa rom regional Inernaional Energy Agency

daases ha we used in our model: Chile, Israel, and New Zealand. In his analysis, AsiaOceania excludes Japan, and OECD Americas excludes he Unied Saes.

Indonesias generaion and emissions daa are projeced or 2030 and ound in Te 3rd

ASEAN Energy Oulook repor released by Te Insiue o Energy EconomicsJapan,

Te ASEAN Cenre or Energy, and Te Naional ESSPA Projec eams in February

2011.31 Indonesias emissions oal or 2030406 million meric ons, or MMwas

provided or oal energy consumpion raher han jus elecriciy generaion. o ge he

2030 emissions oal or jus power generaion, we calculaed power generaion inpu as

a percenage o oal energy consumpion rom ossil uels166.7 million onnes o oil

equivalen (MOE)/489.2 MOE = 34 percen. We hen muliplied 34 percen by oalemissions rom energy consumpion406 MM * 0.34 = 138.04 MMo ge an esi-

mae o 2030 oal emissions rom Indonesias power-generaion secor.

Souh Aricas generaion and emissions daa are projeced or 2030 and ound in he

Inegraed Resource Plan or Elecriciy 20102030 repor published by Souh Aricas

Deparmen o Energy in May 2011.32 oal projeced elecriciy generaion and emissions

or 2030 were included in he repor, bu in order o ge he projeced oal power genera-

ion rom zero-carbon generaion sources in 2030, we used a percenage breakdown in

he repor (ound on page 27) ha liss projeced 2030 hydroelecriciy4 percenand

nuclear power3 percengeneraion under he business-as-usual base case.

2010 generaion daa or Indonesia and Souh Arica come rom he U.S. Energy

Inormaion Adminisraions Inernaional Energy Saisics.33

Assumptions

Each scenario calculaes emissions reducions based on he displacemen o ossil-uel

sources only and does no accoun or he displacemen o nuclear power, hydroelecric-

iy, or nonhydroelecriciy renewable energy sources. Addiionally, he emissions acor

or each Major Economies Forum pary is based on he average emissions per erawat

hour rom all ossil-uel sources, including coal, oil, and naural gas sources.


17/19


TABLE 7

Scenario 2: 35 percent renewable energy (Including hydro), non-nuclear electricity generation by 2035 target

MEF country

or region*

2035 BAU RE Gen

(TWh)

35/35 RE target

(TWh)

Addl RE Gen

needed to meet

target (TWh)

RE Gen %

increase share

of overall Gen to

reach target

2035 additional

emissions

reductions (MMT)

from target

Total cumulative

emissions

reductions

(target and BAU

in MMT

Asia Oceania 174 404.6 230.6 20% 151.77 226.13

Brazil 739 369.6 0 0% 0 134.79

China 2280 4033.05 1753.05 15% 1550.90 2878.81

European Union 1447 1437.1 0 0% 0 451.81

India 526 1247.75 721.75 20% 642.64 989.90

Indonesia 71 274.015 203.015 26% 39.35 47.88

Japan 252 457.1 205.1 16% 113.69 189.07

OECD Americas 644 522.2 0 0% 0 104.54

Russia 268 592.55 324.55 19% 309.38 402.79

South Africa 18 158.9 140.9 31% 127.21 141.66

United States 1112 1902.25 790.25 15% 539.15 988.07

Total 7531 11399.115 4369.215 12% 3474.09 6555.46

TABLE 6

Scenario 1: 35 percent non-hydro, non-nuclear renewable energy electricity generation by 2035 target

MEF country

or region*

2035 BAU N-H RE

Gen (TWh)

35/35 N-H RE

target (TWh)

Additional N-H

RE Gen needed

to meet target

(TWh)

N-H RE Gen %

increase share

of overall Gen to

reach target

2035 additional

emissions

reductions (MMT)

from target

Total cumulative

emissions

reductions

(target and BAU

in MMT

Asia Oceania 126 404.6 278.6 24% 183.36 253.12

Brazil 118 369.6 251.6 24% 111.92 149.73

China 960 4033.05 3073.05 27% 2718.68 3517.55

European Union 1053 1437.1 384.1 9% 228.34 663.51

India 254 1247.75 993.75 28% 884.83 1091.40

Indonesia 40 274.015 234.015 30% 45.36 51.37

Japan 157 457.1 300.1 23% 166.35 234.53

OECD Americas 151 522.2 371.2 25% 192.11 254.21

Russia 46 592.55 546.55 32% 521.00 561.03

South Africa 0 158.9 158.9 35% 143.46 143.46United States 795 1902.25 1107.25 20% 755.43 1166.82

Total 3700 11399.115 7699.115 24% 5950.83 8086.74


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TABLE 9

Scenario 4: 40 percent renewable energy (including hydro) and nuclear electricity generation by 2035 target

MEF country

or region*

2035 BAU RE

plus nuclear Gen

(TWh)

40/35 RE plus

nuclear target

(TWh)

Additional RE

plus nuclear Gen

needed to meet

target (TWh)

RE plus nuclear

Gen percent

increase share

of overall Gen to

reach target

2035 additional

emissions

reductions (MMT)

from target

total cumulative

emissions

reductions

(target and BAU

in MMT

Asia Oceania 492 462.4 0 0% 0 185.59

Brazil 775 422.4 0 0% 0 144.13

China 3172 4609.2 1437.2 12% 1271.47 3323.05

European Union 2111 1642.4 0 0% 0 301.40

India 691 1426 735 21% 654.44 1125.46

Indonesia 71 313.16 242.16 31% 46.94 55.47

Japan 505 522.4 17.4 1% 9.64 65.63

OECD Americas 779 596.8 0 0% 0 124.73

Russia 538 677.2 139.2 8% 132.69 321.43

South Africa 32 181.6 149.6 33% 135.07 150.41United States 1992 2174 182 3% 124.17 601.07

Total 11158 13027.56 2902.56 6% 2374.42 6398.38


* The ollowing Major Economies Forum countries data are captured under the regions specifed: Australia (Asia Oceania), France (European Union), Germany (European Union), Italy (European Union), South Kore

(Asia Oceania), Mexico (OECD Americas), and the United Kingdom (European Union). Due to the lack o country-level data or certain Major Economies Forum and non-Major Economies Forum countries rom the

International Energy Agency, we used 2030 projections or Indonesia and South Arica, and we were unable to exclude three non-Major Economies Forum countries: Chile, Israel, and New Zealand. In this analysis,

Asia Oceania excludes Japan and OECD Americas excludes the United States.

Sources: International Energy Agency ( World Energy Outlook 2012); The Institute o Energy Economics-Japan, The ASEAN Centre or Energy and The National ESSPA Project Teams (The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook)

the South Arica Department o Energy (Integrated Resource Plan or Electricity 2010-2030); and the U.S. Energy Inormation Administration (International Energy Statistics or 2010).

TABLE 8

Scenario 3: 35 percent renewable energy (including hydro) and nuclear electricity generation by 2035 target

MEF country

or region*

2035 BAU RE

plus nuclear Gen

(TWh)

35/35 RE plus

nuclear target

(TWh)

Additional RE

plus nuclear Gen

needed to meet

target (TWh)

RE plus nuclear

Gen percent

increase share

of overall Gen to

reach target

2035 additional

emissions

reductions (MMT)

from target

Total cumulative

emissions

reductions

(target and BAU

in MMT

Asia Oceania 492 404.6 0 0% 0 185.59

Brazil 775 369.6 0 0% 0 144.13

China 3172 4033.05 861.05 7% 761.76 2813.34

European Union 2111 1437.1 0 0% 0 301.40

India 691 1247.75 556.75 16% 495.73 966.75

Indonesia 71 274.015 203.015 26% 39.35 47.88

Japan 505 457.1 0 0% 0 55.99

OECD Americas 779 522.2 0 0% 0 124.73

Russia 538 592.55 54.55 3% 52.00 240.74

South Africa 32 158.9 126.9 28% 114.57 129.92

United States 1992 1902.25 0 0% 0 476.90

Total 11158 11399.115 1802.265 1% 1463.41 5487.37


19/19

Endnotes

1 The Group o 20, The G20 Pittsburgh Summit Leaders State-ment, Press release, September 25, 2009, available at http://www.g20.org/Declaration/20090925/780980538.html.

2 The Clean Energy Ministerial, available at http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org (last accessed March 2013).

3 Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Cli-

mate Pollutants, Country Partners, available at http://www.unep.org/ccac/Partners/CountryPartners/tabid/101711/Deault.aspx (last accessed March 2013).

4 The Major Economies Forum, available at http://www.majoreconomiesorum.org (last accessed March 2013).

5 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ClimateChange 2007: Synthesis Report (2007), available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pd/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pd;The World Bank, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4C WarmerWorld Must Be Avoided (2012), available at http://climat-echange.worldbank.org/sites/deault/les/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pd.

6 The White House, Fact Sheet: Major Economies Meeting onEnergy Security and Climate Change, Press release, Septem-ber 27, 2007, available at http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/09/20070927.html.

7 The Major Economies Forum.

8 G8 Summits, available at http://www.bmu.de/en/topics/europe-international/international-environmental-policy/g8-and-g20/g8-summit/ (last accessed March 2013).

9 The White House, President to Attend Copenhagen Talks,Press release, November 25, 2009, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-oce/president-attend-copen-hagen-climate-talks.

10 The Clean Energy Ministerial, available at http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/about/index.html (last accessedMarch 2013)

11 See a list o initiatives at Clean Energy Ministerial, Initia-tives, available at http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/OurWork/Initiatives.aspx (last accessed March 2013).

12 Todd Stern, Remarks at Secretary Clintons Foreign A-airs Policy Board Meeting, Washington, D.C., January3, 2103, available at http://www.state.gov/e/oes/rls/re-marks/2013/202501.htm.

13 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, Estab-lishment o an Ad Hoc Working Group on the DurbanPlatorm or Enhanced Action: Decision 1/CP.17, availableat http://unccc.int/resource/docs/2011/cop17/eng/09a01.pd#page=2 (last accessed March 2013).

14 Andrew Light, Why Durban Matters, Center or AmericanProgress, December 19, 2011, available at http://www.amer-icanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2011/12/19/10777/why-durban-matters/.

15 Rebecca Leton and others, Theres More than One Way toReduce Global Emissions, Center or American Progress, De-cember 9, 2011, available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2011/12/09/10828/theres-more-than-one-way-to-reduce-global-emissions/.

16 Andrew Light and others, Doha Climae Summit Ends withLong March to 2015 (Washington: Center or AmericanProgress, 2012), available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2012/12/11/47728/doha-climate-summit-ends-with-the-long-march-to-2015/.

17 The World Bank and Potsdam Institute, Turn Down theHeath: Why a 4C Warmer World Must be Avoided (2012).

18 Mitt Romney on the Top American Science Questions:2012, available at http://www.sciencedebate.org/debate12/(last accessed March 2013).

19 David Welna, Republicans, Democratic LawmakersWeigh in on Obamas Speech, National Public Radi o,January 22, 2013, available at http://m.npr.org/news/Poli-tics/169950208.

20 The term ambition gap in our analysis reers to the degreeto which a country needs to increase the share o zero-carbon uel in its domestic mix to hit a given target.

21 Union o Concerned Scientists, Renewable Electricity Stan-dards Toolkit, available at http://go.ucsusa.org/cgi-bin/RES/state_standards_search.pl?template=main (last accessedMarch 2013).

22 Richard W. Caperton and others, Helping America Winthe Clean Energy Race (Washington: Center or AmericanProgress, 2011), available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2011/02/07/9016/helping-america-win-the-clean-energy-race/.

23 National Renewable Energy Laboratory, ComparativeAnalysis o Three Proposed Federal Renewable ElectricityStandards (2009), available at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/y09osti/45877.pd.

24 International Energy Agency, FAQs: Energy eciency, avail-able at http://www.iea.org/aboutus/aqs/energyeciency/(last accessed March 2013).

25 Jessica Goad, Daniel J. Weiss, and Richard W. Caperton, TheVast Potential or Renewable Energy in the American West(Washington: Center or American Progress, 2011), availableat http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/re-port/2012/08/06/12002/the-vast-potential-or-renewable-energy-in-the-american-west/.

26 U.S. Army Energy Initiatives Task Force, Home page, avail-able at http://www.armyeit.com/ (last accessed March2013).

27 Richard W. Caperton, Renewable Energy Standards DeliverAfordable, Clean Power (Washington: Center or AmericanProgress, 2012), available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2012/04/11/11397/renewable-

energy-standards-deliver-afordable-clean-power/.

28 The White House, Remarks by the President in the Stateo the Union Address, February 12, 2013, available athttp://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-oce/2013/02/12/remarks-president-state-union-address.

29 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012,available at http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publica-tions/weo-2012/ (last accessed March 2013).

30 Ibid.

31 The Institute o Energy EconomicsJapan, The ASEANCentre or Energy and The National ESSPA Project Teams,The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (2011), available at http://www.energycommunity.org/documents/ThirdASEANEner-gyOutlook.pd.

32 South Arica Department o Energy, Integrated ResourcePlan or Electricity 20102030 (2011), available at http://

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