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ENGR 3360U Winter 2014

Unit 10

Risk and Uncertainty

Dr. J. Michael Bennett, P. Eng., PMP,

UOIT,

Version 2014-I-01

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Un t 10 – Pro ect R s Management

!ange Record

2014"#"01 #nitia$ reation

2014"#"0110"2 %&r' ('M' )ennett* P'Eng'* PMP ENGR 3360

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o+rse ,+t$ine

1' Engineering Economics

2' Genera$ Economics

1' Microeconomics

2' Macroeconomics

3' Money and t!e )ank o-

anada

3' Engineering Estimation

4' #nterest and E.+i/a$ence

' Present Wort! na$ysis

6' nn+a$ as! $o

' Rate o- Ret+rn na$ysis

5' Picking t!e )est !oice

' ,t!er !oosing 7ec!ni.+es

10' Uncertainty and Risk

11' #ncome and &e8reciation

12' -ter"ta9 as! $os

13' Re8$acement na$ysis

14' #n-$ation

1' MRR :e$ection

16' P+;$ic :ector #ss+es

1' W!at Engineering s!o+$d kno

a;o+t cco+nting15' Persona$ Economics -or t!e

Engineer

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Unit 10 Road Ma8

10'0 #ntrod+ction

10'1 Risk P$anning

10'2 Risk #denti-ication10'3

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2014"#"01 %&r' ('M' )ennett* P'Eng'* PMP ENGR 336010"

&i$;ert and Risk

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10'1 #ntrod+ction

Processes concerned it! cond+cting

Risk management planning

Risk identification Risk analysis

Risk responses

Monitoring and controlling risk

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10'1 Risk Man'

P$anning

10'2 Risk

identi-ication

10'3 ontro$

P>P* G+ide$ines

ommercia$ data;ases

Per-ormance Re8orts

Work Per-ormance #n-ormation

,P U8dates

?istory* a$endar

PMP

Risk Management P$an

88ro/ed !ange Re.+ests

Risk Register

PMP U8dates

Re.+ested !anges

88ro/ed !ange Re.s

Risk Register U8dates



Risk"re$ated contract+a$ agreements

PMP U8dates

4'3 &e/e$o8

PMP

ost Management P$an

:c!ed+$e Management P$an

@essons @earned

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,;jecti/es o- Risk Management

7o increase t!e 8ro;a;i$ity and im8act o-

8ositi/e e/ents

7o decrease t!e 8ro;a;i$ity and im8act o-negati/e e/ents

NoteA e norma$$y concentrate on t!e $atter

and t!ank-+$$y acce8t t!e -ormer

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:i9 Main Processes

1' Risk Management P$anning

2' Risk #denti-ication

3'

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Risky

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&e-inition o- Risk

#n/o$/es at $east t!ese 2 c!aracteristics

+ncertainty

$oss

Risk is t!e 8ossi;i$ity o- s+--ering $oss B:E#C

Risk is t!e meas+re o- 8ro;a;i$ity and se/erity o-

ad/erse e--ects B@oranceC

Risk is t!e 8otentia$ -or rea$i=ation o- +nanted

negati/e conse.+ences o- an e/ent BRoeC

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Risk :tatement

or a risk to ;e +nderstanda;$e* it m+st ;e

e98ressed c$ear$y

M+st inc$+deAdescri8tion o- c+rrent conditions t!at mig!t

$ead to a $oss

descri8tion o- $oss or conse.+ence

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Princi8$es o- ontin+o+s RM

ore

&e-ining

:+staining

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ore Princi8$e

,8en comm+nication

enco+rage -ree"-$o o- in-ormation

ena;$e comm+nicationB-orma$* in-orma$*im8rom8t+C

acce8t a$$ /ies

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&e-ining Princi8$es

orard"$ooking /ie

:!ared 8rod+ct /ision

G$o;a$ 8ers8ecti/e

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:+staining Princi8$es

#ntegrated Management

7eamork

ontin+o+s Process

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,+r Risk Paradigm

ontro$

#denti-y

< na$ysisP$an

7rack

10

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#denti-y

:earc! -or and $ocate risks ;e-ore t!ey

;ecome a 8ro;$em

Risk #& is a contin+o+s 8rocessRisk is e/eryoneDs ;+siness

U 10 P R M

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na$y=e B

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P$an

)+i$d a Risk P$an

7rans-orm risk in-ormation into decisions

and actionsP$anning is contin+o+s

P$anning is -orard"$ooking

P$anning need s!ared 8rod+ct* g$o;a$ /ision

U t 10 P t R M t

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7rack

Monitor risk indicators

7rigger mitigation action 8$ans

7racking is contin+o+som;ine risk it! 8roject tracking

U t 10 P t R M t

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ontro$

orrect -or de/iations -rom risk mitigation

8$ans

om;ine it! 8roject contro$ee8 comm+nications o8en

U t 10 P t R M t

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;o/e a$$* ,MMUN#7E

Pro/ide interna$ -eed;ack on risks in-o

and e9terna$

U t 10 P t R M t

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:PMP Risk actors

Rea$"or$d risks

7ec!no$ogica$ risks

Risks d+e to si=ePeo8$e risks

+stomer risks

)+siness risks Bco/ered a;o/e tooC

Un t 10 Pro ect R s Management

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Rea$"Wor$d Risks

ontract risks

Management risks

E9terna$ risks Be'g'''' Eastern E+ro8eCcts"o-"God

)$ack :ans BNassim 7a$e;C

Grey :ans


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ontract Risks

Wi$$ e98$ore in ne9t +nit ad nase+m

Make s+re yo+ can de$i/er

NEFER 8romise too m+c!A"C


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Management Risks

inancia$ !ea$t! o- organi=ation

7akeo/era;i$ity o- organi=ation

Management attit+deGo/ernment inertia

ost o- ca8ita$

ost o- ra materia$s


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E9terna$ Risks

Eastern E+ro8e syndrome Bi'e'''' market

/o$ati$ity e9am8$e o- a H riskC

Go/ernment inter/ention Be.+a$"o88ort+nity Iinitiati/esJC

G77K7 8ro;$ems


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cts"o-"God Risks

?+rricanes* tornadoes* tida$ a/es etc''

Pesti$ence* 8$ag+es etc''

P$ane cras!es etc'' Earthquakes


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7ec!no$ogica$ Risks

:o-tare

?ardare

Ne tec!no$ogies7ec!no$ogy -ai$+res

7ec!no$ogy scoo8s

Write"o--s o- $egacy e.+i8ment


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Risks d+e to :i=e

:tar"7rek syndrome Bto -ai$ ;o$d$y !ere'''C

:i=e !as its on 8ro;$ems

88$ication may o/erstretc! tec! 8$at-ormMU@7#s e9am8$e

7!e non"$inearity o- e9tra8o$ation


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Peo8$e Risks

Peo8$e /o$ati$ity

Peo8$e ;+rn"o+t

:!rinkage o- $a;o+r s+88$y#na88ro8riate ski$$ing o- 8eo8$e

)oring ork

IUnionJ 8ro;$ems


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+stomer Risks

+stomer -inancia$ sta;i$ity

Re.+irement c!anges

En/ironmenta$ c!anges Bon$y ;+y Mongo$ianLa$$ doc+mentation m+st ;e in MayanC

E9terna$ inter-aces c!anged Bno e +se

@in+9C


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)+siness Risks

)+i$ding a 8rod+ct t!at no one ants

)+i$ding a 8rod+ct t!at no $onger -its into

t!e edGo/ strategy)+i$ding a 8rod+ct t!at t!e sa$es -orce does

not +nderstand

@osing senior management s+88ort@osing ;+dget

Documents

3360 Unit 10.0 2014-I-01