3 Steps to Zero Emissions- Intelligent Grid, Electric Cars and Solar Energy

3 Steps to Zero Emissions- Intelligent Grid, Electric Cars and Solar Energy

Chris DunstanResearch Principal- Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS

Presentation to ANZSES NSW23 June 2009

Summary

Intelligent Grid Research Program Network Investment: Bigger or smarter? Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap Electric Cars Solar Energy

e.g. permanent Arctic ice may disappear by 2030

Reduced ice albedo(reflectivity)= positive feedback

... the melting of Greenland ice cap may become unstoppable and raise global sea level by 7 metres

International Climate Science Congress (Copenhagen March 2009)

Key Messages:

“1. Climatic trends: Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived.

These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport

Elements of Intelligent Grid

Power Stations

Transmission

Distribution

Customer

Sensors, data collection and Automation:

Predictive and “Self Healing”

Distributed Energy: • Peak Demand Management - DSR• Energy Efficiency• Distributed Generation• Energy Storage• Smart Meters, • Time of Use pricing• Real time displays• Advanced Communications

• Electric Cars

Transmission Data Collection and Automation

Figure Source: Southern California Edison & CPUC

Using information, communications and control technologies to integrate the electricity network with “distributed energy” resources.

Intelligent Grid Research Program

1: Control Methodology

of DG

2: Market & Economic

Modelling

3: Optimal Siting & Dispatch

of DG

4: Instit Barriers, Stakeholder

Engagement & EconomicModelling

5: I Grid Social Impacts

6: I Grid in New

Housing Development

7: OperationalControl &

Energy Management

Economic regulatory barriers & solutions

DANCE Model:

Avoidable Network

Costs

D-CODE Model:

Costs of Distributed

Energy

CSIRO

InstitutionalBarriers

QUT UTS Curtin Uni UniSAUni of Qld Uni of Qld QUT

Engagement:Australian

Distributed Energy

Roadmap

3-Year Collaborative Research (July 2008- June 2011) Engagement with industry, regulators, policy makers, etc.

Aim: Aim: to facilitate major greenhouse gas emission reductions by integrating distributed energy technology with a more intelligent electricity network.

Networks and Climate Change

More Climate Change

More Greenhouse gas

emissions

More (fossil fuel) power generation

More Network Capacity

Electricity Supply Interruptions

More Storms, Heatwaves, etc

Networks and Climate Change

“$50 billion of further investment in national and local energy grids is necessary to meet Australia’s carbon reduction goals. If this doesn’t occur, we all face an increased risk of being left to sweat out decades of long hot summers.

We know it is going to get warmer and we have to prepare for that – this last week has been a warning to us all – we need to act today to climate change proof our networks and to be climate change ready.”

-Andrew Blyth, CEO Energy Networks Association,

2 February 2009, Canberra

http://www.ena.asn.au/udocs/ena_020309_100854.pdf

Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities - USA“United States could reduce emissions by 31% to 46% by 2030”

Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities - Australia

D-CODE: Details and Cost of Distributed Energy

NSW Case Study:

Meeting NSW Electricity Needs to 2020 with lower costs and lower emissions

Scenarios for meeting the NSW power needs to 2020

Scenario 1 – COAL (approximates Owen Inquiry outcome) 1000 MW coal power station 2017 two 500 MW open cycle gas turbines in 2018 & 2019

Scenario 2 – GAS (~NEMMCO projections) combination of open cycle and combined cycle gas

Scenario 3 - Cogeneration and Demand Side Response

Scenario 4 - Energy efficiency and Demand Side Response

Scenario 5 - Combined distributed energy energy efficiency, cogeneration, and demand side response, and Allows 1000 MW coal fired capacity retirement in 2014/15.

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

200

8/0

9

200

9/1

0

201

0/1

1

201

1/1

2

201

2/1

3

201

3/1

4

201

4/1

5

201

5/1

6

201

6/1

7

201

7/1

8

201

8/1

9

201

9/2

0

CA

PA

CIT

Y (

MW

)

Exisiting or planned capacity Demand side responseCogeneration

Capacity needed for reliability

Energy efficiency

NSW capacity projections to 2020 with DE

$15

$17

$19

$21

$23

$25

$27

$29

$31

$33

$35

Coal Gas Cogen and DSR Energyefficiency and

DSR

Combineddistributed

energy

Bil

lio

n $

200

9 –

202

0

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Existing supply - variable cost Network capital - amortized costNew supply - amortized capital cost New supply - variable cost

87.686.4 85.4 84.7

79.2

75

80

85

90

Mt

CO

2-e

per

yea

r

Million Tonnes CO2-e in 2020

Scenario cumulative costs & 2020 emissions

Energy efficiency, cogeneration, and Demand Side Response can meet capacity shortfall

Not acting on DE will mean higher: – energy consumption, greenhouse emissions, network

costs, generation costs, carbon abatement cost and consumer power bills

So, are we investing in Distributed Energy?

Australian Energy Regulator’s Network Pricing Decision (2009-14)

$16.9 billion in Network Capital Expenditure (2009-14)– 80% increase on the previous five years– $2,400 per person in NSW– $9.3 million per day

For Energy Australia customers– Average network prices increase by 99% (nominal)– up to 172% for domestic customers– Average retail price to rise by ~40% (excl. CPRS cost)

Little direct support for Distributed Energy

Distribution Network Capital Expenditure

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

$m p

.a.

Financial Year

NSW

Qld

Vic

SA

Can we afford a much bigger grid and much smarter grid at the same time?

Distribution Network Capital Expenditure

1

[1] Energy Australia, Revised Regulatory Proposal and Interim Submission, January 2009, p. 190

Energy Australia Indicative Network Charges

Network Prices to Rise (by up to 172%)(Real Retail Prices up: 51% for small consumers; 34% for large consumers)

Energy Consumption Forecast to fall

(AER Determination, Fig. 6.2, p. 114)

Peak Demand Forecast to rise (2.7% per annum)

Forecast Peak Demand Growth

5600

5800

6000

6200

6400

6600

6800

7000

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

Year

MW

Original forecast(June 2008)

Revised forecast(January 2009)

AER Determination, Table 6.4

How to stimulate Distributed Energy investment?

DE Technology Assessment:

Costs, Scale, Limitations

Institutional Barriers

What obstructs cost-effective DE?Status

(current and progress)

Defining Distributed EnergyEnergy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation

Demand ForecastingEnergy and Peak Load

(NEMMCO)

Policy Instruments

Can institutional barriers be effectively overcome?

Avoidable Network Costs(time and place)

Potential(current and

future)

Policy Drivers

Why do stakeholders care about DE?

Research and Development

Proposed Network Investment(time and place)

(NSPs)

Assumptions &Scenario Analysis

Centralised Generation Costs, Scale, Limitations

(NEM)

Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap

Roadmap Elements

External Data

External Process

Avoidable network costs

Network Capacity Required Sydney by 2012

>15MVA

< -10MVA

Avail. Capacity

Proposed Network Investment Sydney to 2012

Indicative Network Investment Deferral Value ($/MVA/yr) -Sydney to 2012

DE Technology Assessment:

Costs, Scale, Limitations

Institutional Barriers

What obstructs cost-effective DE?Status

(current and progress)

Defining Distributed EnergyEnergy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation

Demand ForecastingEnergy and Peak Load

(NEMMCO)

Policy Instruments

Can institutional barriers be effectively overcome?

Avoidable Network Costs(time and place)

Potential(current and

future)

Policy Drivers

Why do stakeholders care about DE?

Research and Development

Proposed Network Investment(time and place)

(NSPs)

Assumptions &Scenario Analysis

Social Decision Making:Political process;

Policy and Market Design

Optimisation & Outputs: Costs, Prices, Emissions

Recommendations

Centralised Generation Costs, Scale, Limitations

(NEM)

Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap

Consumer Acceptance

Will consumers accept DE?

Roadmap Elements

External Data

External Process

Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Australia’s first PHEV (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)

1. Plug In

> Bigger Battery > Socket & Charger to charge off

electricity grid > Reduce greenhouse emissions

– (if renewable powered)> Reduces urban pollution> Much lower running costs

– (but high battery costs)

What’s a Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)? > Has both petrol engine and electric motor and battery> Still runs on petrol only, but up to 50% more efficient

– Engine does not idle, recovers braking energy, smaller capacity engine, runs engine at more optimal speed

– Reduces reliance on oil (and imports)

What’s a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)?

c

More oil use

Pea

k O

il

Global Warming

Conventional vehicle

petrol fuel

~20% efficient

Biofuel vehiclerenewable fuel

Competing land use, biodiversity, food security

Electric vehicle (EV) electric fuel, ~80% efficient

Limited range, Slow recharge

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

~40% efficient Long range, quick refuel

petrol fuel

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)Electric & petrol fuel

~60% efficient

Long range, quick refuel

More greenhouse emissions

Why PHEVs?

PHEV Greenhouse Gas EmissionsComparison of PHEV emissions charged from various power stations types

(Year 2010, 19,300 km per year, 30km electric range)

Source: EPRI http://www.epri-reports.org/PHEV-ExecSum-vol1.pdf

Coal fired electricity

Renewable electricity

Conventional car

Fuel Cost Comparison (Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

Conventional(Camry)

Off Peak Standard(Continuous)

Green Power Off PeakGreen Power

$/da

y Electricity

Petrol ($1.40/l)

Petrol ($1.40/l)

Actual one-off battery cost


Petrol ($1.40/l)

Estimated battery cost at production line volumes


Air Cond.O/Peak Water heating

~8 kWh per day = ~60 km in PHEV

Impact of PHEVs on Average Residential Power Demand

(Summer Peak- NSW)

Air Cond.Water heating

~8 kWh per day = >60 km in PHEV

PHEV charge -uncontrolled


(Summer Peak- NSW)

Air Cond.Water heating

~8 kWh per day = ~60 km in PHEV

PHEV charge -controlled


(Summer Peak- NSW)


(Summer Peak- NSW)

Air Cond.

~8 kWh per day of load removed

Average Residential Power Demand (Summer Peak- NSW)

Air Cond.

Vehicle to Grid load management (peak load reduced)

Australia’s first V2G (Vehicle to Grid) electric car

Solar? What does a Solar Feed in tariff look at from

a Intelligent Grid perspective?

1. A Gross Tariff of at least 30cents/kWh fixed for the term of the tariff.

2. The term of the tariff should be at least 10 years from the date of installation.

3. If necessary, the term of the FiT should be reviewed, rather than the rate.

4. Eligibility should be open to all electricity consumers

5. Consumers receiving the FiT should be required to purchase power through a time of use tariff.

6. This time of use tariff should be based on “net metering”

What’s next

Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap Forum 1: Brisbane April 09: Introduction Forum 2: Melbourne 14 July: Costs of Distributed Energy Forum 3: Sydney August 09: Avoidable Network Costs

NSW Case Study Report release soon

Conclusions

• Smart Grids, Electric Cars and Solar PV are strongly complementary

• We are unlikely to be able to afford a much bigger grid and a much smarter grid at the same time

• We need to make investment in distributed energy as easy as investment in networks.

www.igrid.net.au

www.igrid.net.au

Documents

3 Steps to Zero Emissions- Intelligent Grid, Electric Cars and Solar Energy