Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2nd Quarter 2020 Results
August 2020
Safe Harbor
This presentation has been prepared by El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A.B. de C.V. (together with its subsidiaries, “Liverpool”), is strictly confidential, is not intended forgeneral distribution and may only be used for informational purposes. This presentation may contain proprietary, trade-secret, and commercially sensitiveinformation and neither this presentation nor the information contained herein may be copied, disclosed or provided, in whole or in part, to third parties for anypurpose. By receiving this presentation, you become bound by the above referred confidentiality obligation and agree that you will, and will cause yourrepresentatives and advisors to, use the information contained herein only to evaluate a credit rating for Liverpool and for no other purpose. Failure to comply withsuch confidentiality obligation may result in civil, administrative or criminal liabilities. The distribution of this presentation in other jurisdictions may also be restrictedby law and persons into whose possession this presentation comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions.
Although the information presented in this document has been obtained from sources that Liverpool believes to be reliable, Liverpool does not make anyrepresentation as to its accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness for any purpose. The information set forth herein does not purport to be complete and Liverpoolis not responsible for errors and/or omissions with respect to the information contained herein. Certain of the information contained in this presentation represents oris based upon forward-looking statements or information. These forward-looking statements may relate to Liverpool’s financial condition, results of operations,plans, objectives, future performance and business, including, but not limited to, statements with respect to outlooks and growth prospects, liquidity, capital resourcesand capital expenditure, growth in demand for our products, economic outlook and industry trends, development of our markets, competition in areas of ourbusiness; and plans to launch new products and services, and the effect of legal proceedings and new laws, rules and regulations and accounting standards onLiverpool’s financial condition and results of operations. All statements contained in this presentation that are not clearly historical in nature are forward-looking,and the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “continues,” “expect,” “estimate,” “intend,” “project” and similar expressions and future or conditional verbssuch as “will,” “would,” “should,” “could,” “might,” “can,” “may” or similar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements.The information in this presentation, including but not limited to forward-looking statements, applies only as of the date of this presentation and is not intended togive any assurance as to future results. Liverpool and its advisors expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update or revise the information, including anyfinancial data and forward-looking statements, and will not publicly release any revisions they may make to this presentation that may result from events orcircumstances arising after the date of this presentation.
Any projections included herein have been prepared based on Liverpool’s views as of the date of this presentation of future events and financial performance andvarious estimations and assumptions, including estimations and assumptions about future events, may prove to be incorrect or may change over time. The projectionshave been prepared and are set out for illustrative purposes only, and do not constitute a forecast. While the projections are based on assumptions that Liverpoolbelieves are reasonable under the circumstances, they are subject to uncertainties, changes (including changes in economic, operational, political, legal, and othercircumstances) and other risks, all of which are beyond Liverpool’s control and any of which may cause the relevant actual, financial and other results to be materiallydifferent from the results expressed or implied by such projections. No assurance, representation or warranty is made by any person that any of the projections will beachieved and no recipient should rely on the projections. None of Liverpool, its affiliates, Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & SmithIncorporated or any of their respective directors, officers, employees, partners, shareholders, advisers and agents makes any assurance, representation or warranty asto the accuracy of the projections. Nothing contained in this presentation may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise or forecast or a representation as to the future.Liverpool undertakes no obligation to update the projections or any of the information contained in this presentation. (1.0)
2
Omni-experience Entity
Omni-experience
*For Liverpool & Suburbia. 3
123 StoresNationwide presence
163 StoresNationwide presence
28 Shopping MallsPresence across 17 states
156 BoutiquesPresence in 65% of the country
+5.5M Card Holders• Private Label Cards*• VISA Cards*
• eCommerce• Click & Collect• Liverpool Pocket• Seller´s App• Extended Catalog• Marketplace
Digital
COVID-19 Action Plan
2
3
4
5
6
7
Preserve Group Liquidity▪ Cash on hand: $5,455 million pesos
▪ Quarter Cash Burn: $8,706.4
Maximize eComm/Digital▪ eCommerce
▪ Credit card payments
▪ Customer communication
Restrict OPEX to Minimum▪ 17.3% reduction vs. 2Q19
▪ Headcount unchanged
Reduction of Purchase Orders▪ 68% reduction in orders
▪ 12.4% increase in inventory vs. 2019
Tightening of Credit Origination ▪ Credit Portfolio 18% below last year (-$6 bn)
▪ Skip payment program
▪ Avoid higher delinquency ratios
▪ Digital solutions
1Welfare of Customers &
Associates
Dividend Payment Deferral▪ Payment Date TBD
Share Buyback Program On Hold
Short-Term Credit Lines▪ $3,500 million pesos
8
9
As of June 30th, 2020
10
Reduce CAPEX to Minimum▪ Halved to $5,100 million pesos
Digital performance during the lockdown (2Q20)
5
6.8x growth in new digital customers
5.1x growth in digital sales
2.3x growth in visits to our website
3.0x growth in Liverpool Pocket active
users participation
Conversion rate growth by almost 2.0x
As of June 30th, 2020
80% of total sales
3.0x increase in Marketplace sellers
Logistics performance during the lockdown (2Q20)
6
Increased capacity for order processing▪ New delivery methods
▪ Internal capacity complemented with external delivery
services.
▪ 87% of deliveries made by external delivery services.
Successful deliveries▪ 90% delivered on or before time
Increase in delivery days
Click & Collect▪ 25% participation rate since reopening
▪ “Curbside pickup” (Your order delivered to your car)
Staff Reduction due to COVID-19 pandemic
Purchase Orders▪ 400% increase
As of June 30th, 2020
Store and Shopping Mall Reopenings
7
As of September 21st, 2020
All units are now
operational
Locations operating
accordingly to local and
federal restrictions:
▪ Business hours
▪ Capacity of customers
▪ Sanitary measures and
filters
Strategic Priorities
Omni-experience
Customer Experience & Big Data
Profitability Improvement
Digital Transformation
Suburbia´s Growth
El Puerto de Liverpool´s Footprint
8
Strategic Priorities
Profitability ImprovementLiverpool Stores, Galerías Shopping Centers
and Credit Cards
9
Focus on profitability and efficiency
Stores remodeling – rather than growth
Existing shopping malls – invest on improved experience
Strategic Priorities
Suburbia´s Growth Based on Seven Pillars
10
Accelerated expansion
Continuity to Suburbia´s successful business model
Omnichannel model development
New credit card model
CRM capabilities
Update logistics model
Human resources’ talent management
Apply for Mexico Doesn´t apply for Mexico
Retail Evolution: USA & MEXICO
11
Department Stores
Growth
Category Killers Mass
Merchandisers
Price Clubs E-Commerce
OverexpansionOff- Price
Fast Fashion COVID-19
• USA Department Stores
have failed to adapt to new
customer needs.
• Omnichannel + credit
division + real state division
are making the difference
Omni-experience Right to Win
Highly Recognized Liverpool Brand
Liverpool CardsLogistics Infrastructure
Stores NetworkRetail Assortment,
Extended Catalog & Market Place
Customer Data
12
Store Collaboration Model
13
Customer Store✓ Physical
✓ Extended Catalog
✓ Marketplace
Other Stores
Free Home Delivery
DC
Store Collaboration
Serving our customers anytime,
anywhere, for life!
- 90% of orders delivered on or before time
- Stores fulfill 97% of orders
- Successful delivery rate is 95% (Customer at home)
Fulfillment
App
Salesperson
App
Returns and
Service
Logistics Master Plan
14
Logistics Platform
Arco Norte (PLAN)
Tultitlán
‒ Top selling skus’ allocated them next to the POS
‒ Increased service level for replenishment and
eCommerce
‒ OMS allocates inventory dynamically
‒ Optimization of store network and labor, to support pick/pack
‒ Product lifecycle management
‒ Shorten lead times for store replenishment
‒ Strengthen data analysis for merchandise
planning
Merchandise planning
Logistics, DC and Transportation
Order Management and Fulfillment
PLAN* project
‒ More than 1.6 MM sqmt of
available space, 400 acres
‒ Capex through 2022: $8.5 MMPs
‒ Operating principles: Sustainability,
Flexibility and Scalability
‒ Best in class technology and
processes
‒ Startup date: 1st Q 2022
* Plataforma Logística Arco Norte
Our most important digital channel
Liverpool Pocket
80% increase in downloads
15
✓ Credit Card Payments
✓ E-Wallet (+30K users)
✓ Account Balance
✓ Safe Transactions
✓ Account Monthly
Statement
5.1x sales growth
Credit Card Support
Retail Capabilities
Extended
Catalog
Click &
Collect
Order Tracking
& Follow UpReal Time Inventory
by Store
Marketplace+ +
+
New features!• Express Checkout
• Improved browse & shop
• +Marketplace assortment
As of June 30th, 2020
Digital Standings
16
GMV México - 2Q2020 $Mx
(Growth as %)
Calculations made with each of the companies reports.
BN - $MXN
9.9 MM
15.9 MM
6.4 MM
5
10
20
0
15
233%122% 217%
Digital Standings
17
GMV México – YTD 2020 $Mx
(Growth as %)
Calculations made with each of the companies reports.
BN - $MXN
11.7 MM
24.2 MM
8.8 MM10
15
25
5
20
163%66% 61%
Segmentation▪ Clients, channels, products payment methods, etc.
Business Intelligence▪ Customer identification
▪ Unique customer
Customer 360° View▪ Holistic customer view
Customer Service▪ Personalized communication (CRM)
▪ Increase R-F-M1
Advanced Analytics▪ Descriptive analytics
▪ Predictive models
▪ Prescriptive models
▪ Cognitive models (AI)
Customer Knowledge▪ Comprehensive knowledge of customer behavior
▪ Experiences design & value generation
Customer Experience & Big Data Priorities
1 R-F-M: Recency, Frecuency, Money 18
Digital main goal:
Hyper Personalization
Customer 360° View
19
20
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Data Analysis
Customer experience
Logistics optimization
Inventory Management
Reaching Hyperpersonalization
+
Improving
With
El Puerto de Liverpool´s Footprint
21
Company´s Footprint▪ Working environment
▪ Health and wellness projects
▪ Education programs
Responsible Purchases▪ Suppliers certification
Environment▪ Energy efficiency
▪ Waste management
▪ Sustainable shopping bags
Volunteering• Relationship within society
▪ Donations
▪ Education for communities
Cash Burn
$(8,706)
Liverpool at a Glance – 2Q2020
1 Liverpool + Suburbia + Digital *Figures in Million MXN2 Liverpool + Suburbia
22
Store Openings
Suspended due to
COVID-19
CAPEX
$1,094
Revenues
$14,746
(58.7)% vs. YA
Retail Sales 2
$11,767
(62.5)% vs. YA
EBITDA
$(1,839)
vs. YA
EBITDA Margin
(12.5)%
vs. YA
SSS 1
(63.5)%
vs. YA
Ending cash position:
$5,455 MMPs
Cash Burn
$(13,180)
Liverpool at a Glance – YTD
1 Liverpool + Suburbia + Digital *Figures in Million MXN2 Liverpool + Suburbia
23
Store Openings
3 Suburbia Stores
CAPEX
$1,977
Revenues
$41,471
(34.4)% vs. YA
Retail Sales 2
$34,440
(37.2)% vs. YA
EBITDA
$730
vs. YA
EBITDA Margin
1.8%
vs. YA
SSS 1
(38.6)%
vs. YA
Ending cash position:
$5,455 MMPs
Liverpool at a Glance – Same Store Sales
(1) As of 1Q
(2) Only Liverpool24
Liverpool´s Annual Growth Suburbia´s Annual Growth
Suburbia
Liverpool
ANTADDepartamentStores12%
0%
6%
18%
-100%
(4.0)% (11.3)%
1Q20
5.9%7.4% 6.4%6.3%
4.9%7.1%
17.1%
11.4%
6.6%
11.5%
(0.5)%
5.0%0.4%
(5.9)%
4.4%
(6.6)%
4Q183Q182Q181Q18 2Q191Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Quarterly Growth
Total Retail Annual Growth
6.6%
(36.0)%
4.3%
2020 120192018
5%
0%
10%
10.6%
(55.4)%(2.7)%
2020 120192018
6%
0%
12%
(38.6)%
3.3%
2020 12019
5%
0%
10%
7.1%
2018
2Q20 Av. Ticket (2)
2Q20 Traffic
92.2%
(78.8)%
(59.3)% (91.2)%
2Q20
Liverpool at a Glance - Credit 2Q2020
25
Liverpool
2Q2020 NPL
3.8%
Suburbia
2Q2020 NPL
5.8%
Credit Card 1
48%
Of Total Retail Sales
Credit Card Holders
+5.5M
Consolidated NPL´s
5.1% 5.7%4.5%
5.8%5.1% 5.6%
4%
2%
0%
6%
6.0%
4.5%5.1%
4Q3Q2Q1Q
2018
4Q3Q2Q1Q
2019
4Q3Q2Q1Q
2020
Portfolio coverage index for the 2Q2020: 14.2%
We expect NPL´s to spike by September due to Skip Payment program
1 Liverpool only
3.9%
$8,731
$4,970
$7,958
2017201620152014
4K
3K
1K
2K
5K
0
$4,873
$8,418
20192018
6K
8K
7K
9K
10K
$8,592
10%
5%
0%
15%
20%
% Revenue
Liverpool at a Glance - CAPEX
26
$1,977
2Q2020
(Ps $ in millions)
CAPEX
$5.1Billion Pesos
CAPEX 2020 target
Expansion,
42%
Remodeling,
28%Maintenance,
2%
Logistics,
17%
IT, 11%
Total Debt
3,948 1
Debt Structure & Maturity Profile
14,546 2
(1) LIVEPOL24 144A Reg S US$300 million, fixed exchange rate 13.15 MxPs/USD (2) LIVEPOL26 144A Reg S US$750 million, fixed exchange rate 19.39 MxPs/USD(3) Fully hedge in Pesos: principal + interest
27
3,500 3,400 3,500
5,000
Net Debt/EBITDA
Debt/EBITDA
1.5
1.0
0
0.5
2.0
201820172016 2019
1.6x1.4x
1.8x1.5x
0.7x0.9x 0.7x
Leverage
Pre-IFRS 9 & 16
0.06x
By Interest Type By Currency
Average
Interest Rate
7.88%
Average Life
6.1 years
Total Debt
$38,894.1
Not including IFRS16
Includes derivative
instruments acquired for
hedging purposes
Million Pesos
144A Reg S
Local Bonds & Bank Credits
6,000
4,000
0
2,000
16,000
202420222020 2026 2027 2029
As of August 18st, 2020
Million Pesos
2.5
5,000
2030
52.5%
47.5%
Pesos
Synthetic Pesos (3)
91.0%
9.0%
Fixed Variable
Net
Gross
1.5
1.0
0
0.5
2.0
2019
1.9x
1.1x1.8x2.1x
Leverage
After IFRS 9 & 16
2Q2020
2.5
Income Statement | 2020
28
Million Pesos 2Q2020 2Q2019 % VAR. 2020 2019 % VAR.
Commercial Income 11,767.0 31,410.4 (62.5) 34,440.0 54,848.6 (37.2)
Leasing Income 357.3 864.2 (58.7) 1,263.6 1,739.9 (27.4)
Interest Income 2,622.0 3,441.1 (23.8) 5,767.7 6,596.5 (12.6)
Total Income 14,746.2 35,715.7 (58.7) 41,471.3 63,185.0 (34.4)
COGS (9,451.0) (21,347.0) (55.7) (25,368.0) (37,756.5) (32.8)
Commercial Gross Profit 2,316.0 10,063.4 (77.0) 9,072.0 17,092.1 (46.9)
Commercial Margin 19.7% 32.0% (12.4 p.p) 26.3% 31.2% (4.8 p.p)
Net Gross Profit 5,295.2 14,368.7 (63.1) 16,103.3 25,428.4 (36.7)
Gross Margin 35.9% 40.2% (4.3 p.p) 38.8% 40.2% (1.4 p.p)
Operating expenses without depreciation,
overdue accounts and one time provisions(5,965.3) (7,211.9) (17.3) (13,487.4) (14,513.1) (7.1)
Provisions for overdue accounts (1,168.4) (1,430.9) (18.3) (1,886.0) (2,236.4) (15.7)
EBITDA Expenses (7,133.7) (8,642.8) (17.5) (15,373.4) (16,749.5) (8.2)
Depreciation & Amortization (1,233.9) (1,157.6) 6.6 (2,488.8) (2,317.1) 7.4
Net Operating Expenses (8,367.6) (9,800.4) (14.6) (17,862.2) (19,066.6) (6.3)
Consolidated Operating Income (3,072.4) 4,568.2 (167.3) (1,758.9) 6,361.8 (127.6)
Consolidated EBITDA (1,838.5) 5,725.8 (132.1) 729.9 8,678.9 (91.6)
Consolidated EBITDA Margin (12.5)% 16.0% (28.5 p.p) 1.8% 13.7% (12.0 p.p)
Financing expense (558.3) (698.4) (20.1) (1,271.5) (1,366.0) (6.9)
Foreign exchange gain (134.8) (14.0) 861.2 94.7 (21.8) 534.1
Profit before income tax (3,765.5) 3,855.8 (197.7) (2,935.7) 4,974.0 (159.0)
Income Tax 1,183.9 (1,078.1) 209.8 990.2 (1,357.3) 173.0
Effective Rate 31.4% 28.0% 0.0% 33.7% 27.3% 0.0%
Net Income before Investment in Associates (2,581.6) 2,777.7 (192.9) (1,945.5) 3,616.8 (153.8)
Investment in Associates (297.3) 261.6 (213.6) (113.5) 384.5 (129.5)
Net Income (2,878.8) 3,039.3 (194.7) (2,059.0) 4,001.2 (151.5)
Non-controlling Net Income (0.0) (1.0) (99.7) (1.1) (2.1) (47.7)
Controlling Net Income (2,878.9) 3,038.3 (194.8) (2,060.0) 3,999.2 (151.5)
Balance Sheet | 2Q2020
29
As of June 30th, 2020 2020 2019 Dif
Cash / cash equivalent 5,454.6 10,953.1 (5,498.5)
Loan portfolio 27,615.8 33,603.8 (5,987.9)
Inventories 25,809.7 22,967.1 2,842.6
Investmen in associates 8,974.1 8,417.3 556.8
Fixed assets 50,157.6 48,379.8 1,777.8
Right of use assets 11,402.8 11,329.1 73.8
Investment properties 22,530.8 21,332.5 1,198.3
Other 35,532.3 28,690.8 6,841.5
Total Assets 187,477.8 185,673.4 1,804.4
Suppliers 8,487.0 21,534.3 (13,047.4)
Short term loans 3,500.0 3,000.0 500.0
Long termn loans 36,143.8 27,069.1 9,074.6
Lease liabilities 12,112.3 11,527.2 585.1
Other liabilities 22,177.0 20,624.3 1,552.7
Total Liabilities 82,420.0 83,755.0 (1,335.0)
Stockholders' equity 105,057.8 101,918.4 3,139.4
Million Pesos
Cash Flow | 2020
30
YTD
Initial Balance of Reserve 4,468.7 4,013.8 6.4% 4,422 3,982.3 11.1%
(+) New Reserves 1,168.4 1,430.9 (18.3)% 1,886.0 2,236.4 (15.7)%
(-) Write Off (883.0) (809.1) 9.1% (1,754.2) (1,583.0) 10.8%
Ending Balance of Reserve 4,554.1 4,635.7 (1.8)% 4,554.1 4,635.7 (1.8)%
Jun 2020 Dec 2019 Var% Jun 2020 Jun 2019 Var%
Coverage Ratio 14.2% 10.4% 3.8 p.p. 14.2% 12.1% 2.0 p.p.
Liverpool Reserve
31
Total Reserve
Liverpool at a Glance – Credit Reserves 2Q2020
Initial Balance of Reserve 176.0 50.2 250.7% 179.4 4.1 4,274.2%
(+) New Reserves 93.3 121.6 (23.3)% 148.1 167.7 (11.7)%
(-) Write Off (62.0) (4.7) 1,223.8% (120.3) (4.7) 2,466.4%
Ending Balance of Reserve 207.3.0 167.1 24.0% 207.3 167.1 24.0%
Suburbia Reserve
MxPs Millions 2Q2020 2Q2019 Var. % 2020 2019 Var. %
Initial Balance of Reserve 4,092.7 3,963.6 3.3% 4,242.9 3,978.2 6.7%
(+) New Reserves 1,075.1 1,309.4 (17.9)% 1,737.9 2,068.7 (16.0)%
(-) Write Off (821.0) (804.4) 2.1% (1,634.0) (1,578.3) 3.5%
Ending Balance of Reserve 4,346.8 4,468.6 (2.7)% 4,346.8 4,468.6 (2.7)%
91,293
100,442
122,168
135,535
144,234
63,185
41,471
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019
Σ2Q
2020
Σ2QRevenues
Consolidated SSS
14,870
16,051
18,350
20,237
23,877
8,679
730
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019
Σ2Q
2020
Σ2Q EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Liverpool at a Glance – Financial Performance Trends
(Ps $ in millions)
1 2019 & 2020 includes IFRS 9 & 16 32
Revenues
CAGR: 9.6%
(Ps $ in millions)
EBITDA & EBITDA Margin 1
CAGR: 8.3%
15.0%
14.9%
16.0%
16.6%
1.8%
13.7%
16.3%
5.8%
7.1%
8.0%
3.3%
(38.6)%
5.6%
10.0%
8,652
11,691
11,650
12,453
12,192
2,831
(10,816)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019 Σ2Q
2020 Σ2Q OCF
% Revenue
11.1%
9.6%
8.9%
9.4%
10.2%
9.8%
-6.4%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019 Σ2Q
2020 Σ2Q
Liverpool at a Glance – Financial Performance Trends
(Ps $ in millions)
33
Operating Cash Flow 1 Return on Invested Capitals (ROIC) 1
9.5%
9.2%
11.6%
8.5%
(26.1)%
4.5%
9.5%
1 2019 & 2020 includes IFRS 9 & 16
Analyst Coverage
34
Firm
Target Price
2020 2021 Opinion
54.00 Neutral
58.00 Underweight
60.00 Equalweight
61.00 Hold
65.00 Neutral
66.00 Market Perform
68.00 Neutral/High Risk
70.00 Underperform
85.00 Outperform
85.00 Neutral
92.00 Market Outperform
* 117.00 Neutral
* Pre-Covid
35
Contact Information:
IR: www.elpuertodeliverpool.mx
www.liverpool.com.mx
Bolsa Mexicana de
Valores (BMV): LIVEPOL