13
ARTICLE Influence of elevation and site productivity on conifer distributions across Alaskan temperate rainforests J.P. Caouette, E.A. Steel, P.E. Hennon, P.G. Cunningham, C.A. Pohl, and B.A. Schrader Abstract: We investigated the influence of landscape factors on the distribution and life stage stability of coastal tree species near the northern limit of their ranges. Using data from 1465 forest inventory plots, we estimated probability of occurrence and basal area of six common conifer species across three broad latitudinal regions of coastal Alaska. By also comparing models across life stages of each species (seedlings, saplings, mature trees, and dead trees), we explored trends in population stability at this leading edge of climate change. Elevation had a stronger influence on the probability of tree species occurrence than on basal area; site productivity impacted both estimated odds of presence and estimated basal area for most species in at least some regions. Interestingly, there were fairly dramatic differences across species in the degree to which the modeled probability of occurrence differed across the four life stages. Western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don), for example, showed relatively stable distributions but other species appear to be in flux, e.g., yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis (D. Don) D.P. Little), which has experienced widespread mortality at low elevations. Differential effects of elevation on live versus dead basal area suggest that mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière) and yellow-cedar are shifting upslope in some regions and that Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carrière) is shifting downslope in the Northwest region. Key words: landscape, elevation, species distribution models, climate, biogeography. Résumé : Nous avons étudié l'influence des caractéristiques du paysage sur la distribution et la stabilité des étapes de vie des espèces côtières arborescentes a ` proximité de la limite septentrionale de leur aire de répartition. À l'aide de données provenant de 1465 placettes d'inventaire forestier, nous avons estimé la probabilité d'occurrence et la surface terrière de six espèces communes de conifère a ` travers trois vastes régions latitudinales de la zone côtière de l'Alaska. En comparant aussi des modèles des étapes de vie de chaque espèce (semis, gaule, arbre mature et arbre mort), nous avons exploré les tendances de la stabilité des populations la ` où le changement climatique est le plus prononcé. L'altitude avait une plus forte influence que la surface terrière sur la probabilité d'occurrence d'une espèce; la productivité de la station avait un impact a ` la fois sur les chances estimées de présence et sur la surface terrière estimée de la plupart des espèces au moins dans certaines régions. Il est intéressant de noter qu'il y avait des différences assez marquées parmi les espèces dans l'ampleur avec laquelle la probabilité modélisée d'occurrence différait pour l'ensemble des quatre étapes de vie. À titre d'exemple, la distribution du thuya géant (Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don) était relativement stable mais d'autres espèces semblaient être en pleine évolution : le cyprès de Nootka (Callitropsis nootkatensis (D. Don) D.P. Little) par exemple qui a connu une mortalité généralisée a ` faible altitude. Les différents effets de l'altitude sur la surface terrière vivante versus morte indiquent que la pruche subalpine (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière) et le cyprès de Nootka migrent vers le haut des pentes dans certaines régions et que l'épicéa de Sitka (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carrière) migre vers le bas des pentes dans la région du nord–ouest. [Traduit par la Rédaction] Mots-clés : paysage, altitude, modèles de distribution des espèces, climat, biogéographie. Introduction Conifer forests in coastal Alaska at the current northern extent of temperate rainforests in North America are experiencing a variety of landscape-scale pressures related to global climate change, expanding human development, and increasing recre- ation demands (Haufler et al. 2010). Understanding resiliency of these forests in the face of these pressures is critical; yet, our knowledge of landscape dynamics within these forests is limited. Emerging issues in this region include maintaining ecosystem integrity, protecting cultural resources and values, and providing functioning wildlife habitats, as well as identifying potential com- modity uses of forestlands (Oakes et al. 2015). An understanding of macroscale physical and climatic predictors of species distribu- tion and productivity is essential for managing these unique and important forests. Comparisons of realized species niches across life stages provide a first indication of whether and in what ways species distributions may already be shifting. Such macroscale Received 15 July 2015. Accepted 25 October 2015. J.P. Caouette.* The Nature Conservancy, 416 Harris Street #301, Juneau, AK, USA. E.A. Steel. Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 400 N 34th Street, Seattle, WA 98103, USA. P.E. Hennon. Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 11175 Auke Lake Way, Juneau, AK 99801, USA. P.G. Cunningham. Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA. C.A. Pohl. Catherine Pohl Biological Consulting, P.O. Box 21168, Juneau, AK 99802, USA. B.A. Schrader. Alaska Region, USDA Forest Service, 709 W 9th Street, Juneau, AK 99801, USA. Corresponding author: Paul Hennon (email: [email protected]). *In memorium. This study was initiated by the late John Caouette (1964–2010) of The Nature Conservancy. John's tireless efforts to synthesize and gather support for the idea, to find, organize, and clean the data, and to provide early reports has been an inspiration to the co-workers and collaborators he left behind. John's enthusiasm and drive for this project provided the co-authors of this report with the motivation to carry his work forward in the wake of his untimely death in October 2010. 249 Can. J. For. Res. 46: 249–261 (2016) dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2015-0283 Published at www.nrcresearchpress.com/cjfr on 30 November 2015. Can. J. For. Res. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by USDANALBF on 02/17/16 For personal use only.

23rd June 2019 - Glengormley · We will resume on Sunday 1st September. Wishing everyone a great summer! Organisation Notices ... taking place in Spires onference entre in elfast

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Page 1: 23rd June 2019 - Glengormley · We will resume on Sunday 1st September. Wishing everyone a great summer! Organisation Notices ... taking place in Spires onference entre in elfast

23rd June 2019

Sunday 23rd June 11:00am Morning Worship Sermon: 'Take Courage it is I' Scripture: Mark 6 v 45-56, Rev George Moore 7:00pm Evening Worship Sermon: ‘Jonah’s call and disobedience’ Scripture: Jonah 1 v 1-3, Rev George Moore

Sunday 30th June 11:00am Morning Worship including Kids Praise, Mr Trevor Long 7:00pm Evening Worship COMMUNION Rev Stephen Lowry

267 Antrim Road, Glengormley, BT36 7QN

Tel: 028 9084 8774

Website: www.glengormley.org

Email: [email protected]

Registered with The Charity Commission for Northern Ireland NIC104317

Services

GOLFING SOCIETY outing on 24th June to Greenacres Golf Club from 1:30pm. Sign up sheet in Mosaic.

Mosaic Garden Hub will meet on Friday 28th June at 10am. Come for a cup of coffee and chat and hopefully the summer will have arrived!

Have a fun event planned? Need somewhere to host it? Mosaic Cafe could be the right venue for you! Speak to Nathaniel McQueen for availability.

SUMMER MISSION: If you are planning to do any summer mission work this year and would like to be included in our prayer diary please let the church office know by email by Wednesday 26th June.

ANTRIM BAPTIST CHURCH: Sunday 23rd June at 6:30pm. Antrim and Newtownabbey Street Pastors invite anyone interested in finding out more about

what we do or our plans for the next few months to come along to the evening service in Antrim Baptist Church.

VACANCY CONVENOR Rev. Colin Morrison. Tel: 028 90770301

Email: [email protected]

Sunday 30th June, 7pm - Communion

Joint meeting of the Kirk Session and Congregational Committee: Thursday 27th June at 7:30pm in the Burney Room with Rev. Colin Morrison (Vacancy Convenor) and the Vacancy Commission.

SUNDAY CLUB will be stopping for our summer break on Sunday 23rd June. We will resume on Sunday 1st September. Wishing everyone a great summer!

Organisation Notices

Forthcoming Events

Leadership Notices

Church Notices

If you are visiting here this morning:

There is a crèche in the Minor Hall (ask for directions).

Primary school aged children can join our Sunday Club; watch for children leaving during the service.

If your child is staying during the sermon there are kids packs available at the library corner (back left of church). Please feel free to get them before or during the service.

If your child needs a break during the service feel free to leave and go to the entrance area.

Page 2: 23rd June 2019 - Glengormley · We will resume on Sunday 1st September. Wishing everyone a great summer! Organisation Notices ... taking place in Spires onference entre in elfast

DATE CRECHE CRECHE

23rd June Lesley Bell May Horner

30th June Hannah McKinstry Ann Hardy/Susan Law

7th July Ali Cooke Lorraine Metson

DATE OPENING/CLOSING

23rd June Sam Black

30th June Philip McKenna

7th July Robin McBride

Safe Families for Children is a Christian organisation which uses volunteers to come alongside families whose children are on a trajectory towards care, in order to support the family to safely stay together and thrive. If you are interested in hearing more about this work and what volunteering entails - please speak to Lesley Bell

BIBLICA: THE INTERNATIONAL BIBLE SOCIETY: Celebrating 40 years of the NIV. You are warmly invited to join for a lunch-time reception with the translation team behind the NIV Bible, taking place in Spires Conference Centre in Belfast on Tuesday 25th June from 12.15 - 2pm. Contact [email protected] for further details.

Keswickatportstewart.org Saturday 6th to Friday 12th July. Speakers Jonty Allcock, Jonty Rhodes

and Malcolm Duncan. Youth and children’s programme in partnership with CSSM www.suni.co.uk

3rd to 9th August 2019; Radical Hospitality - Belonging to Christ. If you have never been to New Horizon why not come along this year - the 30th anniversary. The evening celebration speakers this

year are Rosaria Butterfield and Tim Chester. Gilbert Lennox will take the morning bible teaching with New Irish Arts leading the praise. More detail is available online at www.newhorizn.org.uk/promo

Continue to pray for our church over the summer months during this time of vacancy. Pray for Colin Morrison and our Kirk Session as they oversee the running of church.

Take time to pray for those people from our congregation who are involved in mission teams over the summer months.

Christine McLaughlin, Matthew McLaughlin and Anthony Gibson will be leaders at the Kilbroney Adventure Camp from 27th July – 14th August.

Jonny Mullan will be taking part in Greenisland community week 29th July – 2nd August and Spark outreach in Monkstown 12th - 20th August.

Rebecca McKinstry and the Holiday Bible Club team from our own church 22nd – 26th July.

Continue to pray for Sandra and Edgar McKinney as they work at the Garden Tomb in Jerusalem. For good health and fellowship in the later weeks of their volunteering.

Prayer Diary

Glengormley Presbyterian Church is currently in vacancy. In the

event of a pastoral emergency where a minister is required,

please contact the vacancy convenor, Rev. Colin Morrison on 028

90770301. For all other enquiries please contact the Clerk of

Session, Mr Derek Kyle, on 028 9335 2536.

PRAYER MEETING: Sundays at 6:30pm in the Minor Hall.

PRAYER BOX: Please leave any prayer requests in the box in the

entrance area—beside the sign up desk.

OFFICE HOURS: The Church Office normal opening hours are

Thursdays 12:30-3:30pm & Sundays 9:45-10:45am. Any

announcements for next week to be with the office by 12noon on

Thursday.

ANNOUNCEMENT SHEETS: There will be an announcement sheet

printed on 4th July for the month of July and another one printed

on 1st August for the month of August. Any announcements need

to be with the office by 12 noon on Thursdays. Invoices will be

processed on these dates.

SUMMER OFFICE HOURS:

Thursday 4th July 12:30-3:30pm: Announcement sheet for July

and processing of invoices

Sunday 7th July 9:45-10:45am

Thursday 1st August 12:30-3:30pm: Announcement sheet for

August and processing of invoices

Thursday 22nd August 12.30-3.30pm: Restart weekly

announcement sheets.

CHURCH CALENDAR: We maintain a church calendar of events

on the Church’s website. If you have a date for a Glengormley

Presbyterian Church event that you want on the church calendar,

please contact the church office.

YOUR CONTACT DETAILS: If these should change, please notify

the office so that we can keep our records up to date.

RECORDINGS OF SUNDAY SERVICES are available from the sound

team in the balcony.

If you don’t wish to take your announcement sheet

home please return them to the holder in the entrance.