23 August 2010 Annual Report 1

Annual ReportAnnual ReportPMP on Mitigation PMP on Mitigation

of Terrorist Acts of Terrorist Acts (MTA)(MTA)23 August 201023 August 2010

Erice, SicilyErice, Sicily** Remove underscores. Too cluttered **** Remove underscores. Too cluttered **

23 August 2010 2Annual Report

BackgroundBackground

Established in 2004Established in 2004 Focus:Focus:

Understanding evolving CBRN threats.Understanding evolving CBRN threats. Identification of mitigation measures.Identification of mitigation measures. Recommending actions that can be Recommending actions that can be

taken by governments and individuals taken by governments and individuals to limit the effects of terrorist events.to limit the effects of terrorist events.

Expert participation has evolved.Expert participation has evolved.** remove underscores and excessive capitalization ** remove underscores and excessive capitalization

****

23 August 2010 3Annual Report

Threat/Risk Threat/Risk ** Remove ** Remove underscores **underscores **

Terrorist are watching, listening and Terrorist are watching, listening and observing our activities.observing our activities. Identify gaps. ** Parallel construction **Identify gaps. ** Parallel construction ** Exploit with high probability of success.Exploit with high probability of success.

Terrorists are capable of working Terrorists are capable of working within our decision cycle, which is a within our decision cycle, which is a significant concern.significant concern.

Threat of terrorist acts has resulted in Threat of terrorist acts has resulted in significant reallocation of economic significant reallocation of economic assets (negative to economic growth).assets (negative to economic growth).

23 August 2010 4Annual Report

Threat/Risk (cont)Threat/Risk (cont)

Note: It is easier to obtain the Note: It is easier to obtain the materiel,materiel, construct and employ a construct and employ a WMD device in lesser developed WMD device in lesser developed nations.nations. Weaker security measures.Weaker security measures. Weaker national command and control. Weaker national command and control. Greater threat of terrorist activity.Greater threat of terrorist activity. Weaker political stability.Weaker political stability. Reduced logistics. **means what?**Reduced logistics. **means what?**

23 August 2010 5Annual Report

PMP-MTA RoadmapPMP-MTA Roadmap Understand fundamental science associated with Understand fundamental science associated with

CBRN threats and associated mitigation measures.CBRN threats and associated mitigation measures. Identify future terrorist asymmetrical threats.Identify future terrorist asymmetrical threats.

Unconventional agents (synthetics, genetically Unconventional agents (synthetics, genetically modified).modified).

Unique innovative applications.Unique innovative applications. Multiple potential outcomes (Domino effects).Multiple potential outcomes (Domino effects). Lack of models, inadequate verification of existing modelsLack of models, inadequate verification of existing models and and

predictability of effects.predictability of effects.

Terrorists are generally Terrorists are generally well educatedwell educated and are and are employing tried and proven techniques in employing tried and proven techniques in innovative ways to achieve their desired results innovative ways to achieve their desired results (e.g., (e.g., 9/11, Madrid9/11, Madrid).).

23 August 2010 6Annual Report

Mitigation of GapsMitigation of Gaps

Requires inter-disciplinary approach to Requires inter-disciplinary approach to mitigate (C, B, R, N).mitigate (C, B, R, N).

Must work and think innovatively in lieu Must work and think innovatively in lieu of bureaucratically.of bureaucratically. Involve students, science fiction and thriller Involve students, science fiction and thriller

writers, other creative thinkers.writers, other creative thinkers. Mix of science and technology applications.Mix of science and technology applications. In general, include “non-expert” to get In general, include “non-expert” to get

different perspectives and fresh ideas.different perspectives and fresh ideas. 3-D computer modeling of scenarios/impacts.3-D computer modeling of scenarios/impacts.

23 August 2010 7Annual Report

Implementing Implementing TechnologiesTechnologies

Implementing technology exists today.Implementing technology exists today. Emergency response to major attacks has shown Emergency response to major attacks has shown

severe deficits in industrialized and developing severe deficits in industrialized and developing countries alike.countries alike.

National and political will to implement solution sets National and political will to implement solution sets are generally limited, take time and are expensive.are generally limited, take time and are expensive.

No national or regional communications architecture No national or regional communications architecture exists today, much less inter-connectivity and exists today, much less inter-connectivity and interoperability to inform a worried public.interoperability to inform a worried public. Critical to retaining political control/mitigation.Critical to retaining political control/mitigation. Cyber security must be taken into account. Cyber security must be taken into account.

23 August 2010 8Annual Report

Organizing for SuccessOrganizing for Success

Build a wider multi-disciplinary Build a wider multi-disciplinary team.team.

Consider multiple meetings a year at Consider multiple meetings a year at politically neutral locations.politically neutral locations.

Investigate outreach to existing Investigate outreach to existing regional organizations (e.g. NATO).regional organizations (e.g. NATO). Potential opportunity to act as scientific Potential opportunity to act as scientific

advisor/knowledge base.advisor/knowledge base. Involve more nations than NATO at 28.Involve more nations than NATO at 28.

23 August 2010 9Annual Report

Organizing for Success Organizing for Success (cont)(cont)

““Science in Diplomacy: Science can Science in Diplomacy: Science can provide advice to inform and support provide advice to inform and support foreign policy objectives.foreign policy objectives.

Diplomacy for Science: Diplomacy can Diplomacy for Science: Diplomacy can facilitate international scientific facilitate international scientific cooperation.cooperation.

Science for Diplomacy: Scientific Science for Diplomacy: Scientific cooperation can improve international cooperation can improve international relations.”relations.”

Ref: The Royal Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Ref: The Royal Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, New Frontiers in Science DiplomacyNew Frontiers in Science Diplomacy, January 2010., January 2010.

23 August 2010 10Annual Report

The Way AheadThe Way Ahead Build stronger and broader multi-disciplinary Build stronger and broader multi-disciplinary

(physicists, biologists, political scientists, (physicists, biologists, political scientists, psychologist, socialists, etc.) scientific team psychologist, socialists, etc.) scientific team focused on mitigating the primary focused on mitigating the primary consequences of terrorists acts.consequences of terrorists acts. Within the WFS.Within the WFS. Out-reach to and working with non-WFS agencies.Out-reach to and working with non-WFS agencies.

Communications.Communications. Architecture/cyber security development.Architecture/cyber security development. Establish PMP-MTA data repository.Establish PMP-MTA data repository.

Scientific: limited, controlled access (Center of Scientific: limited, controlled access (Center of Excellence).Excellence).

Public: open access (Wikipedia).Public: open access (Wikipedia).

23 August 2010 11Annual Report

The Way Ahead (cont)The Way Ahead (cont)

Leverage existing national expenditures Leverage existing national expenditures across CBRN mitigation efforts.across CBRN mitigation efforts. Enhance return on investment.Enhance return on investment.

Define government and first-responder Define government and first-responder training requirements.training requirements. Validate scenarios and agreed training Validate scenarios and agreed training

standards.standards. Identify periodic updating of training Identify periodic updating of training

program of instruction.program of instruction.

23 August 2010 12Annual Report

Near Term ExecutionNear Term Execution Focus on and develop meaningful measurable Focus on and develop meaningful measurable

results.results. Identify new and evolving threats.Identify new and evolving threats. Define mitigation actions and opportunities.Define mitigation actions and opportunities. Define mitigation communication and training needs.Define mitigation communication and training needs.

Expand scientific multi-disciplinary team/network Expand scientific multi-disciplinary team/network and outreach to existing regional organizations.and outreach to existing regional organizations. Establish web-based center of excellence.Establish web-based center of excellence.

Face-to-face meetings, approximately two per Face-to-face meetings, approximately two per year.year.

Develop supplemental funding sources.Develop supplemental funding sources.

23 August 2010 Annual Report 13

Thank YouThank You

Comments and/or questions?Comments and/or questions?

23 August 2010 Annual Report 14

Back-Up ChartsBack-Up Charts