2138-07 Joint ICTP-IAEA Workshop on Vulnerability of ...indico.ictp.it/event/a09141/session/43/contribution/30/material/0/0.pdf · Barrages et Hydraulique Février 2010 2 Presentation

2138-07

Joint ICTP-IAEA Workshop on Vulnerability of Energy Systems to Climate Change and Extreme Events

Douglas Sparks

19 - 23 April 2010

Hydro-Québec Montreal Canada

Impacts of and Adaptation Options to Extreme Weather events in the Hydropower Sector

Doug SparksHydro-Québec

Major contributors :R. Roy, G. Desrochers, A. Frigon,

C. Demers, M. Minville, G. Pacher, L. Roy

Impacts of and Adaptation Options to Extreme Impacts of and Adaptation Options to Extreme Weather events in the Hydropower Sector Weather events in the Hydropower Sector

Impacts of and Adaptation Options to Extreme Impacts of and Adaptation Options to Extreme Weather events in the Hydropower Sector Weather events in the Hydropower Sector

VulnerabilityVulnerability of of EnergyEnergy Systems to Systems to ClimateClimateChange and Change and ExtremeExtreme EventsEvents; ICTP; ICTP--IAEAIAEAWorkshopWorkshopTrieste , April 2010 Trieste , April 2010

Planification 2010 – HydrauliqueBarrages et Hydraulique

Février 201022

Presentation planPresentation plan1.1. HydroHydro--Québec, Climate Change and Extreme Québec, Climate Change and Extreme

WeatherWeather

2.2. Hydropower Vulnerabilities and StrategiesHydropower Vulnerabilities and Strategies1.1. OperationsOperations2.2. PlanningPlanning

3.3. Current evaluations of CC on the Hydropower Current evaluations of CC on the Hydropower sector sector

1.1. Inflows (net gain or loss)Inflows (net gain or loss)2.2. ExtremesExtremes

4.4. Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options1.1. OperationsOperations2.2. PlanningPlanning

Planification 2010 – HydrauliqueBarrages et Hydraulique33

Planification 2010 – HydrauliqueBarrages et Hydraulique44


Février 201055


Février 201066

Extreme Climate EventsExtreme Climate Events


Février 201077

Extreme Climate Events: Saguenay Flood July 1996Extreme Climate Events: Saguenay Flood July 1996


Février 201088

Février 201088

Extreme Climate Events: Saguenay Flood July 1996Extreme Climate Events: Saguenay Flood July 1996


Février 201099

Climate variability is at the core of the Hydropower business caseClimate variability is at the core of the Hydropower business case

•• 97% of the electricity generated from hydro97% of the electricity generated from hydro•• 59 Hydropower Plants (Total Capacity : 59 Hydropower Plants (Total Capacity :

36,805 MW)36,805 MW)•• 26 Reservoirs (Total capacity of 175 26 Reservoirs (Total capacity of 175 TWhTWh))


Février 20101010

ClimateClimate variabilityvariability isis atat the the corecore of the of the HydropowerHydropower business casebusiness case

StSt--Laurent : 7 %Laurent : 7 %

Outaouais : 5 %Outaouais : 5 %StSt--Maurice : 5 %Maurice : 5 %

Manicouagan : 23 %Manicouagan : 23 %

La Grande : 41 %La Grande : 41 %(Churchill Falls : 19 %)(Churchill Falls : 19 %)


Février 20101111

Février 20101111

Climate variability is at the core of the Hydropower business caseClimate variability is at the core of the Hydropower business case


Février 20101212

Major Business risks for HydroMajor Business risks for Hydro--QuébecQuébecMajor Business risks for HydroMajor Business risks for Hydro--QuébecQuébec

Source : HydroSource : Hydro--Québec Strategic Plan 2006Québec Strategic Plan 2006--2010 (Expected Net Benefit for 2008 : 2,5 billions $)2010 (Expected Net Benefit for 2008 : 2,5 billions $)


Février 20101313

-- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :-- Annual runoff conditions (droughts)Annual runoff conditions (droughts)-- FloodsFloods-- Extreme weather (ice storm; wind storm)Extreme weather (ice storm; wind storm)-- Ice jams and debrisIce jams and debris

-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…):30 years…):-- Design uncertainty (insufficient knowledge of Design uncertainty (insufficient knowledge of

climatic conditions)climatic conditions)-- Risk associated to commissioningRisk associated to commissioning

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate and current adaptation strategiesand current adaptation strategies



-- Ongoing adaptation to Ongoing adaptation to seasonal runoff conditionsseasonal runoff conditions

-- Long term adaptation of Long term adaptation of commercial strategy commercial strategy ––exports and imports exports and imports –– can can require modification or be a require modification or be a tooltool

-- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :-- Annual runoff conditions (droughts and floods) Annual runoff conditions (droughts and floods) –– 10%10%

Février 20101414


Février 2010


RMS février 2001

x Réel RMS février 2001 RMS déc. 2000

Gouin

0

824

1649

2473

3297

4122

4946

5770

6594

7419

8243

11-1

2-00

08-0

1-01

05-0

2-01

05-0

3-01

02-0

4-01

30-0

4-01

28-0

5-01

25-0

6-01

23-0

7-01

20-0

8-01

17-0

9-01

15-1

0-01

12-1

1-01

10-1

2-01

07-0

1-02

04-0

2-02

04-0

3-02

01-0

4-02

29-0

4-02

27-0

5-02

24-0

6-02

22-0

7-02

19-0

8-02

16-0

9-02

14-1

0-02

11-1

1-02

hm³

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bi-monthly strategy review

Février 20101515

Commercial change expected for summer 2001

Annual volume: 3000 hm³


Routing Inflows at SM33 gates available

401,0

402,0

403,0

404,0

405,0

406,0

407,0

408,0

15-avr 25-avr 05-mai 15-mai 25-mai 04-juin

Res

ervo

ir Le

vel (

m)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Flow

s (m

³/s)

NivN40 Niv N35 Niv N100 T1 Niv30 Niv25 Niv 20 Niv 15QinN40 QoutN40 QinN35 Qout N35 Qin N100 T1 Qout N100 T1 Qin30Qout30 Qin 25 Qout 25 Qin20 Qout 20 Qin15 Qout 15

Based on fixed PMP (design flood)

with varying snowpack prior to

event

Based on fixed PMP (design flood)

with varying snowpack prior to

event


Minimum Drawdown Constraints adapting for snowpackMinimum Drawdown Constraints adapting for snowpack

1616


Minimum Drawdown ConstraintsMinimum Drawdown Constraints

Dynamic Level Constraints SM-3Maximum Reservoir Level Prior to Spring Freshet (April 15)

392

394

396

398

400

402

404

406

408

410

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Seasonal Maximum Snow Water Equivalent (cm)

Res

ervo

ir L

evel

(m))

Normal Max Operating LevelNormal Min Operating LevelExtreme Conditions (PMP) - 3 gatesExtreme Conditions (PMP) - 2 gatesNormal Operations - No SpillageNormal Operations - 15% Spillage

Levels calculated considering Outflow of 100 m³/s from April 15th to start of Spring Freshet


1717


Applying Minimum Drawdown Constraint at SM-3 in 2004Applying Minimum Drawdown Constraint at SM-3 in 2004


Water Management at SM-3

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

04-01-01 04-01-15 04-01-29 04-02-12 04-02-26 04-03-11 04-03-25 04-04-08 04-04-22 04-05-06 04-05-20 04-06-03 04-06-17

Date

Flow

(cm

s)

397

398

399

400

401

402

403

404

405

406

407

Res

ervo

ir Le

vel (

m)

Total Outflow (T+S)Calculated Inflow3-day Inflow MeanReservoir Level

Normal – 15% chance spillage

Extreme flood –2 gates

Extreme flood –3 gates

1818


Février 20101919

-- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :-- Ice jams Ice jams -- Example: Chute Hemmings 1989Example: Chute Hemmings 1989



Daily flows at Beauharnois

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360

Julien day of the year

1980198119821983198419851986198719881989

Février 20102020

-- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :-- Ice control Ice control –– forming iceforming ice--cover cover –– what we want to dowhat we want to do



Daily Flows at Beauharnois

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360

Julien day of the year

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Février 20102121

-- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :-- Ice control Ice control –– forming iceforming ice--cover cover –– doesn't work well for recent warm doesn't work well for recent warm

winterswinters



Février 20102222

-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…):30 years…):-- Design adjustments (insufficient knowledge Design adjustments (insufficient knowledge

of hydrologic, climatic conditions or of future of hydrologic, climatic conditions or of future role of production assets)role of production assets)

-- Risk associated to commissioningRisk associated to commissioning


Eastmain 1A: 768 MWWater transfer project


ImprovingImproving oldold turbine performanceturbine performance

Runner geometry measurement on site

Simulation of original turbine configuration

Design of a turbine

modification

On-site implementation

Performance gain evaluationStress analysis

2323


Février 2010Février 20102424

-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…):30 years…):-- Design adjustments (insufficient knowledge of Design adjustments (insufficient knowledge of

hydrologic, climatic conditions or of future role of hydrologic, climatic conditions or of future role of production assets)production assets)




Février 20102525

-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…):30 years…):-- Design adjustments (insufficient knowledge of Design adjustments (insufficient knowledge of

hydrologic, climatic conditions or of future role of hydrologic, climatic conditions or of future role of production assets)production assets)



Reservoir filling for commissionning

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

395

400

405

410

01-a

vr.-9

8

01-ju

in-9

8

01-a

oût-9

8

01-o

ct.-9

8

01-d

éc.-9

8

01-fé

vr.-9

9

01-a

vr.-9

9

01-ju

in-9

9

01-a

oût-9

9

01-o

ct.-9

9

01-d

éc.-9

9

01-fé

vr.-0

0

01-a

vr.-0

0

01-ju

in-0

0

01-a

oût-0

0

01-o

ct.-0

0

01-d

éc.-0

0

01-fé

vr.-0

1

01-a

vr.-0

1

01-ju

in-0

1

01-a

oût-0

1

01-o

ct.-0

1

01-d

éc.-0

1

NIVE

AU

DATE

SUIVI NIVEAU D'EAU - SM3

NIV. MAX.

NIV MINIM.

Median In flows

Low inflows

Original CD

Advanced CD

Reel Filling Curve

Commissionnign dates

407,0 Maximum Operating Level

393,0 Minimum Operating Level

Reservoir filling requires 4 yearsInterest on project: 14M$ per month in 2001



2626


Reservoir filling requires 4 yearsInterest on project: 14M$ per month in 2001

‐30%

‐20%

‐10%

0%

10%

20%

30%19

43

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Inflow serial differences from long‐term average

Differences

Reservoir filling for SM-3: April 1998



-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…):30 years…):-- RiskRisk--based evaluation of projects that figure in based evaluation of projects that figure in

climate information riskclimate information risk-- Example of Peribonka Example of Peribonka –– commissioned in 2008commissioned in 2008

-- 385 MW; 1.2 G$(Can)385 MW; 1.2 G$(Can)




2828


‐40%

‐20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1943

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Inflow serial differences from long‐term average

Differences

Cumulative diff.


Février 20102929

-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…) incorporating risk:30 years…) incorporating risk:-- Use probabilistic inputs for project cost, financial parameters, Use probabilistic inputs for project cost, financial parameters,

production (expected average; serial values)production (expected average; serial values)-- Perform Monte Carlo simulation Perform Monte Carlo simulation


Distribution of break-even cost

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

< - 1

8%

-17,

2%

-13,

8%

-10,

3%

-6,9

%

-3,4

%

0,0%

3,4%

6,9%

10,3

%

13,8

%

17,2

%

20,7

%

24,1

%

27,6

%

Difference from average break-even cost (%)

Prob

abili

ty (%

)

Feasibility study - option 2009


Février 20103030

-- Adaptation strategies Adaptation strategies -- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :-- Frequent revision of optimal dispatchFrequent revision of optimal dispatch-- Good weather and inflow forecasting toolsGood weather and inflow forecasting tools-- Sufficient climate monitoring data for forecasting and studiesSufficient climate monitoring data for forecasting and studies-- Optimization tools Optimization tools -- nestingnesting-- Expert knowledge for short term adaptation strategiesExpert knowledge for short term adaptation strategies

-- Adaptation strategies Adaptation strategies -- Planning:Planning:-- Annual revision of prioritiesAnnual revision of priorities-- Develop a set of development options (turbine runner change; Develop a set of development options (turbine runner change;

additional powerhouse; new site) additional powerhouse; new site) -- Use risk based asset planning tools integrating drought and Use risk based asset planning tools integrating drought and

information riskinformation risk



Février 20103131

-- Inflows (net loss or gain):Inflows (net loss or gain):

-- Extremes:Extremes:-- Climate Factors (P and T)Climate Factors (P and T)-- FloodsFloods-- DroughtsDroughts

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Current evaluations of Current evaluations of CC impacts on the hydropower sectorCC impacts on the hydropower sector


Février 20103232



-- Very volatileVery volatile

-- All models All models show show regions that regions that increase and increase and others that others that decreasedecrease

-- Where do Where do they agree?they agree?

(source IPCC, 2007).


Février 20103333



White areas:

<66% agree on the sign of change;

Hatched areas:

>90% agree on the sign

Change in runoff under the A1B scenario by the end of the 21th century, relative to 1980-1999, as projected by 12 IPCC models (source IPCC, 2007).


Février 20103434

Current evaluations of CC impacts on the hydropower Current evaluations of CC impacts on the hydropower sector sector –– methodology for basin scalemethodology for basin scale


Février 20103535

Current evaluations of CC impacts on the Current evaluations of CC impacts on the hydropower sector hydropower sector -- methodologymethodology

Which CM – GCM – RCM?Downscaling – Dynamic or Statistical?Sensitivity of HM to calibration?


Février 20103636

-- Mean Hydrograph: future (2050) Mean Hydrograph: future (2050) vsvs reference period reference period (%) (average result for 30 years)(%) (average result for 30 years)::


(source Ouranos, 2009).

Flo

w (m

3/s)

More fall and winter

runoff

Earlier Spring and drier summer


Février 20103737

-- Mean annual flow difference: future (2050) Mean annual flow difference: future (2050) vsvsreference period (%) (average result for 36 reference period (%) (average result for 36 scenarios)scenarios)::


(source Ouranos, 2009).


Février 20103838

-- Extremes:Extremes:-- Driving forces Driving forces –– more energy to generate extremes more energy to generate extremes

and more water in the atmosphereand more water in the atmosphere-- Very regional Very regional –– more than average valuesmore than average values-- Climate Factors (P and T)Climate Factors (P and T)-- FloodsFloods-- Droughts Droughts



Février 20103939

-- Extremes:Extremes:-- Climate Factors (P and T) using RCM for NAClimate Factors (P and T) using RCM for NA-- For For eacheach yearyear (1961(1961--2100) 2100) the annual extreme:the annual extreme:-- TminTmin = coldest night; = coldest night; TmaxTmax = warmest day= warmest day


Change in Tmin Change in Tmax

(source B. Casati Ouranos, unpublished).


Février 20104040

-- Extremes:Extremes:-- Climate Factors (P and T) using RCM for NAClimate Factors (P and T) using RCM for NA-- For For eacheach yearyear (19612100) (19612100) PmaxPmax –– the wettest daythe wettest day


Ratio: Future hor 2080/Present 1980PDF for Pmax in NE

(source B. Casati, Ouranos, unpublished).

Non-stationary in both mean and std. dev.



-- Extremes:Extremes:-- Floods Floods –– the delta methodthe delta method


(Ouranos-HQ, 2009)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

janv févr mars avr mai juin juil août sept oct nov déc

Déb

it (m

³/s)

Actuel moyen1962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998

Summer flood

Winter flood

Fall flood



-- Extremes:Extremes:-- Floods Floods –– the delta methodthe delta method


(Ouranos-HQ, 2009)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

janv févr mars avr mai juin juil août sept oct nov déc

Déb

it (m

³/s)

Actuel moyenMRCC ACUC2040204120422043204420452046204720482049205020512052205320542055205620572058205920602061206220632064206520662067206820692070207120722073207420752076



-- Extremes:Floods Extremes:Floods –– direct inputs from RCMdirect inputs from RCM


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92 105 118 131 144 157 170 183 196 209 222 235 248 261 274 287 300 313 326 339 352 365

Dai

ly in

flow

s (m

³/s)

Average hydrographs

1961 - 1990

2041 - 2070

(Ouranos-HQ, 2009)





0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109

121

133

145

157

169

181

193

205

217

229

241

253

265

277

289

301

313

325

337

349

361

Daily

Inflo

ws

(m³/s

)

Yearly hydrographs - Reference period 1961 - 1990 196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

(Ouranos-HQ, 2009)


Février 2010Février 2010Février 20104545



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109

121

133

145

157

169

181

193

205

217

229

241

253

265

277

289

301

313

325

337

349

361

Daily

inflo

ws

(m³/s

)

Yearly Hydrographs - Future - 2041-2070 204120422043204420452046204720482049205020512052205320542055205620572058205920602061206220632064206520662067206820692070

(Ouranos-HQ, 2009)


Février 20104646

-- Extremes: Droughts Extremes: Droughts


(source IPCC, 2007).


Février 20104747

-- Extremes: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods GLOFExtremes: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods GLOF-- Example of Hubbard Glacier Alaska Example of Hubbard Glacier Alaska



Février 20104848

-- Extremes: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods GLOFExtremes: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods GLOF-- Nepal Nepal –– major risk factor for hydropower planning major risk factor for hydropower planning


(source ICMOD and UNEP, 2002).


Février 20104949

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Future Adaptation optionsFuture Adaptation options-- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :

-- Annual runoff conditionsAnnual runoff conditions- Are existing hydro plants able to adapt?

-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…):30 years…):

-- Changes in demandChanges in demand-- Changes in availabilityChanges in availability-- More severe extremesMore severe extremes

Should we design new hydro with CC data?


Février 20105050

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Future Adaptation optionsFuture Adaptation options-- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :

-- Evaluate using existing stochastic dynamic programming WM toolEvaluate using existing stochastic dynamic programming WM tool

Aux Outardes3 plants1000 MW

(Raymond et al.-HQ, Ceati-WMIG 2008)


Février 20105151

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Can Hydro Adapt?Can Hydro Adapt?

(Raymond et al.-HQ, Ceati-WMIG 2008)


Février 20105252

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options-- Operations (short term 1day Operations (short term 1day –– 5 years) :5 years) :

-- Annual runoff conditionsAnnual runoff conditions- Are existing hydro plants able to adapt?-- Where changes are limited to 10 to 20 % Where changes are limited to 10 to 20 % --

yesyes-- Where storage is available Where storage is available -- RunRun--of of ––River remains vulnerableRiver remains vulnerable

-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…):30 years…):

-- Changes in demandChanges in demand-- Changes in availabilityChanges in availability-- More severe extremesMore severe extremes

Should we design new hydro with CC data?


Février 20105353

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options-- Planning (5 Planning (5 –– 30 years…):30 years…):

-- Change in climate:Change in climate:-- Change in demandChange in demand

-- Very gradual Very gradual –– several percent in 50 yearsseveral percent in 50 years-- Change in productivityChange in productivity

-- Also very gradual Also very gradual –– several percent in 50 yearsseveral percent in 50 years

-- Economic and demand factors change Economic and demand factors change much quicker than projected changes in much quicker than projected changes in climateclimate--affected planning variables for affected planning variables for hydropowerhydropower

-- Discount rates for project cost analysis Discount rates for project cost analysis make slightly uncertain or biased future make slightly uncertain or biased future less of a worry than most other planning less of a worry than most other planning factorsfactors


Février 20105454

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options-- Adapting to extremes :Adapting to extremes :

-- Are existing hydro plants able to Are existing hydro plants able to adapt?adapt?

-- Very early to answer this questionVery early to answer this question-- Most CC studies done with delta method Most CC studies done with delta method ––

doesn’t capture variabilitydoesn’t capture variability-- Most tools used to manage extremes can be Most tools used to manage extremes can be

improved and adapted, but it is a big job improved and adapted, but it is a big job –– (non(non--stationnaritystationnarity))

-- Need more studies oriented to extremesNeed more studies oriented to extremes


Février 20105555

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Adaptation OptionsAdaptation OptionsAdaptation options:Adaptation options:

-- NonNon--structural:structural:-- Improving water resource management (data, Improving water resource management (data,

tools, communications between multiple users, tools, communications between multiple users, etc.)etc.)

-- Adapting tools for nonAdapting tools for non--stationary inflows, stationary inflows, extremesextremes

-- Work on flexibility (legal framework for water Work on flexibility (legal framework for water licensing; managing water for multiple basins)licensing; managing water for multiple basins)

-- Prepare for more public discussions on water Prepare for more public discussions on water issuesissues


Février 20105656

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Adaptation OptionsAdaptation OptionsAdaptation options:Adaptation options:

-- Structural:Structural:-- When refurbishing, consider a refit that When refurbishing, consider a refit that

increases flexibilityincreases flexibility-- Consider preConsider pre--investment options for future investment options for future

needs needs –– larger tunnels and options for larger tunnels and options for additional spillway capacityadditional spillway capacity

-- Work on flexibility (design with nonWork on flexibility (design with non--stationaritystationarity))


-- Activities with best return on investment:Activities with best return on investment:-- Study tools Study tools –– for planning and operationsfor planning and operations-- Sharing climate change data and analysis Sharing climate change data and analysis

results results –– building consensusbuilding consensus-- Biggest unknownsBiggest unknowns

-- Statistical properties of future extremesStatistical properties of future extremes-- GCM and RCM model uncertaintiesGCM and RCM model uncertainties

-- Lots of workLots of work

Février 20105757

Hydropower Sector Hydropower Sector –– Vulnerabilities to climate Vulnerabilities to climate change change –– Looking aheadLooking ahead


Février 20105858

Hydropower SectorHydropower Sector

DiscussionDiscussion

Documents

2138-07 Joint ICTP-IAEA Workshop on Vulnerability of ...indico.ictp.it/event/a09141/session/43/contribution/30/material/0/0.pdf · Barrages et Hydraulique Février 2010 2 Presentation