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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 1
People & the Planetby John Sulston FRS
April 2012
A brief review by Richard Vernon21st September 2012
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 2
Report background
Sir John Sulston FRS was assisted by a working group of 22 experts in the same or related fields.
The report was reviewed by an independent panel of 8 experts before being published by the Royal Society in April 2012
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 3
Tips to access ‘People & Planet’
• Printed version available from Royal Society• has good Contents page but no index, so:
• Download electronic version from• http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Soci
ety_Content/policy/projects/people-planet/2012-04-25-PeoplePlanet.pdf
One can then ‘search’ in lieu of index
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 4
Some conventions
Least Developed Countries48 countries mostly in Africa & Asia, with low per capita income & human assets
Less Developed CountriesOthers in Africa & Asia + some in L. America, Caribbean, Pacific Islands.
More Developed CountriesEurope, N America, Australia, New Zealand & Japan
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 5
3 Key Challenges
• raise world’s 1.3 billion poorest out of extreme poverty
• reduce consumption of the most developed and emerging economies
• slow global population growth
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 6
1st Challenge: 1.3 billion poorest out of extreme poverty
• In 2000 World leaders commited to Millenium Development Goals
– 1st of which was to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Critical to reducing global inequalities• Needs increased per capita consumption for this
group– for improved nutrition & health care
• Needs reduced family size where currently highp.7, 13
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 7
2nd Challenge: reduce consumption by the rest of us
• Current levels unsustainable
• Requires radical change of society & current economic models
• Requires politicians to effect this
• Requires us to drive change at political level
p. 11, Chap 3.
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 8
3rd Challenge: slow global population growthPolicy interventions can impact through
investment in:• education, especially for females where
currently excluded• health care including family planning
services• trade policies to encourage local
entreprenurial activitiesSection 5.4 – p. 91...
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 9
Demographic basics
Sulston describes:Total fertility rate (TFR)Demographic transitionReplacement fertilityYouth dependency ratioOld age dependency ratio
Total dependency ratioDemogrpahic dividendDemographic deficitDemographic momentumDemographic inertia
See page 17 for a brief explanation of these terms
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 10
Key Demographic componentsthat affect population size & composition
Migration (international) Fertility Mortality
Demographic Transition shift from high mortality and high fertility
to low mortality and low fertility p15
increase in proportion of old peoplep. 21 et seq.
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 11
Migration
• most dynamic population change factor in destination countries
• increasing: 1990: 156m
2010: 214m (+38%)
• driven mostly by economic change
• refugees are only c. 8% (2010) (– was 12% in 1990)
p. 26, 103
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 12
Migration: pros & cons
Origin country Destination country
+
• remittances $125billion(cf $60b ODA) - 2004• return with new skills
• meet labour & skills shortages• enhance investment, trade, international relations
- • brain drain• social costs
• displace workers• demands on housing, services
p. 36
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 13
Fertility• Source of the greatest effect on future population size
• ‘More Developed Cntrs’: mostly < 2.1 Replacement level
• ‘Least Developed Cntrs’: high fertility rates, > 4.2, – population projected to x2 in next 40 years
• Fertility levels declining everywhere but:due to the Demographic Momentum - see next slide, p16
populations will go on rising for decades p45
due to large proportion of people of child-bearing age
eg Niger p38 Ghana – see next slide.
p. 30. Recommendation 3.
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 14
Fertility: Demographic Momentum
2010: Ghana population c. 20 million fertility rate of 4 births per woman.
If by 2020 fertility declines to replacement level
Then in 2060: population would stabilise at c. 40 million.
p. 21
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 15
Mortality
• declined faster than fertility in most Less and Least Developed Countries
• and especially in infant & child mortalitySo these are seeing :• increase in mothers of child bearing age
and• greatest population increases
p18, 28
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 16
Other issues raised: Age structure
• rate of ageing & the number of old people in the population are unprecedented in human history.
• Globally, over 65s:
– big variations between More, Less & Least DCsp.26
1950 5%
2010 9%
2050 20%
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 17
Other issues raised: Urbanisation• the increase in proportion of population
living in urban areas• a global phenomonen, but much faster in
the More Developed Countries
p28, 34
Least DCs
Less DCs
MoreDCs
Global
1950 29 %
2005 27 % 46 % 74 % 49 %
(2050) (69 %)
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 18
Urbanisation effects
+ can reduce material consumption + can reduce environmental impact
through efficiency delivery of services rapid urbanisation risk of slum conditions
– needs well planned provision of water supply, waste disposal, power and other services
See Recommendation 5
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 19
Other issues: Gross Domestic Product
• GDP most widely used indicator of a country’s prosperity but – a poor indicator of degree to which human needs
are met– ignores depletion of natural capital: agricultural
land, forests, watersheds, fisheries, fresh water etc– becomes a driver of consumption instead of saving
p. 13, 58, 87
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 20
3 challenges 9 recommendations
1. poverty2. consumption3. fertility4. planning5. urbanisation
6. education7. research8. wealth
management9. inter-
governmental collaboration
p. 9. Chapter 6
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 21
So what can I do?
1.2.3.
************