Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance Report Subject: Weekly Epidemiological Report Date: 24 Feb 2021

Introduction

This report provides a summary of indicators which are used to help understand the spread of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Jersey. It shows the volumes of positive cases over the last 12 months (Figure 1). Data on symptomatic callers to the COVID helpline is also shown. The 7-day case rate per 100,000 population is shown, split by age group (Figure 2).

The report also includes information on weekly testing rates per 100,000 population (Figure 3) and weekly positivity rate (Figure 4) which is the number of tests which were found to be positive as a proportion of all tests conducted in that week. Both metrics are shown alongside European countries.

Weekly testing numbers by test reason are shown in Figure 5. Reason for testing is broken down into inbound travel, on-Island surveillance (including workforce screening, admissions screening, cohort screening and contact tracing) and seeking healthcare (symptomatic).

Probable reinfections as a proportion of overall monthly cases are shown in Figure 6. Reinfections are assessed on a case by case basis where individuals have previously tested positive in Jersey (or elsewhere if contact tracing are notified). The time period between two positive tests that informs what is considered a reinfection has been adjusted over time in response to the latest understanding of COVID-19 and the dominant variants on-Island. 1

Key Points

The number of daily positive test cases is currently around 220 (Figure 1), and the number of symptomatic calls to the COVID helpline was around 60 per day (Figure 1). The 14-day number of cases per 100,000 population for Jersey is now 2,724, and the 7-day rate per 100,000 population is 1,275.

The 7-day case rate (per 100,000 population) is highest amongst under 18 year olds at 1,481 per 100,000 population, and lowest amongst over 60 year olds at 1,222 per 100,000 population (Figure 2).

Comparisons to data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) shows how the Jersey rate of testing (per 100,000 population) compares to other European countries (Figure 3). Note that the UK and some other countries include LFD tests (Lateral Flow Device) in their test count, whilst Jersey currently reports PCR and DiaSorin antigen tests only.

Test positivity rate in Jersey is around 31% (Figure 4) whilst test positivity in the UK is 5%.

In the most recent week, around 2,580 on-Island surveillance tests (Figure 5). Tests for individuals seeking healthcare were around 1,730 in the most recent week. Tests for inbound travellers were discontinued from 7th February 2022

A higher percentage of positive cases were probable reinfections (6.7%) in January 2022 than in any previous month

1 Prior to September 2021 cases were generally assumed to be probable reinfections if more than 28 days had passed since their previous positive test. From September 2021 the period was lengthened to 90 days, and on 12th January 2022 the period was reduced back to 28 days, in response to evidence of Omicron's increased dominance in Jersey and of the propensity of the Omicron variant to reinfect individuals who had previously contracted another variant of COVID-19. Back series data may be amended following data quality improvements.

Figure 1: Volumes of positive cases and calls to the COVID helpline with symptoms over the past 12 months, 7-day moving average

Indicator definitions □ Seven-day moving average trend in daily new positive cases: each result is recorded against the day that the swab was taken. Please note that the split between asymptomatic and symptomatic cases is no longer provided. The historic time series of asymptomatic / symptomatic is available on opendata.gov.je

Changes to the way helpline calls are processed occurred in July 2021. For data up to 8th July 2021: _ _ _ Seven-day moving average trend of daily number of individuals calling the COVID helpline and reporting two or more symptoms.

For data after 8th July 2021: ___ Seven-day moving average of daily symptomatic calls received by the COVID helpline

Figure 2: 7-day case rate per 100,000 population, by Age Group*, over the past 12 months

*Population size for each age group is taken from the published 2019 Statistics Jersey population estimate

Figure 3: Weekly testing rate per 100,000 population

Source: ECDC, UK Government, and Government of Jersey

Note that some countries, including the UK, count Lateral Flow Device tests in their total testing figures. Jersey currently counts PCR and DiaSorin antigen tests only.

Figure 4: Weekly test positivity rate

Source: ECDC, UK Government, and Government of Jersey

UK, 8,464

Jersey, 4,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,00020

/02/

2021

06/0

3/20

21

20/0

3/20

21

03/0

4/20

21

17/0

4/20

21

01/0

5/20

21

15/0

5/20

21

29/0

5/20

21

12/0

6/20

21

26/0

6/20

21

10/0

7/20

21

24/0

7/20

21

07/0

8/20

21

21/0

8/20

21

04/0

9/20

21

18/0

9/20

21

02/1

0/20

21

16/1

0/20

21

30/1

0/20

21

13/1

1/20

21

27/1

1/20

21

11/1

2/20

21

25/1

2/20

21

08/0

1/20

22

22/0

1/20

22

05/0

2/20

22

19/0

2/20

22

Wee

kly

test

ing

rate

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

UK France Portugal Spain Germany Ireland Poland Jersey

UK, 5%

Jersey, 31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

20/0

2/20

21

06/0

3/20

21

20/0

3/20

21

03/0

4/20

21

17/0

4/20

21

01/0

5/20

21

15/0

5/20

21

29/0

5/20

21

12/0

6/20

21

26/0

6/20

21

10/0

7/20

21

24/0

7/20

21

07/0

8/20

21

21/0

8/20

21

04/0

9/20

21

18/0

9/20

21

02/1

0/20

21

16/1

0/20

21

30/1

0/20

21

13/1

1/20

21

27/1

1/20

21

11/1

2/20

21

25/1

2/20

21

08/0

1/20

22

22/0

1/20

22

05/0

2/20

22

19/0

2/20

22

Test

pos

itivi

ty ra

te

UK France Portugal Spain Germany Ireland Poland Jersey

Figure 5: Number of Weekly PCR Tests (based on date of swab) by Testing Reason over the past 12 months.

Source: Government of Jersey

*The “On-Island Surveillance Screening” category includes workforce screening, admissions screening, cohort screening, and contact tracing.

Figure 6: Probable reinfections in Jersey over the past 12 months. Number of monthly positive cases, with the percent which are probable reinfections

Source: Government of Jersey

1,17

01,

170

1,23

01,

380

1,57

01,

990

2,20

02,

110

2,01

01,

610

3,28

04,

380

4,68

05,

750 9,

920

11,3

809,

880

9,58

011

,040

9,70

09,

820

10,9

1011

,330

12,5

5013

,230

15,2

5016

,100

16,0

5018

,070

15,0

5015

,670

15,0

9010

,590 13

,100

12,0

7012

,320

13,9

60

2,77

0

7,16

05,

630

4,69

05,

220

5,20

05,

060

3,95

04,

420

5,14

05,

210 4,39

03,

700

4,32

04,

480

4,76

03,

870

5,17

05,

830 5,88

08,

180 11

,670 13

,990

11,4

907,

440

5,67

0 4,97

04,

820

4,00

0 4,62

04,

260

4,73

04,

710

3,48

04,

550

4,85

05,

740

4,71

05,

680

7,74

09,

310

8,61

06,

270

6,48

06,

610

6,69

05,

900

5,24

04,

070

4,46

03,

260

3,36

02,

580

2,58

0

300

260

240 27

026

023

018

016

0 220

130 14

090

9010

011

0 90 170

340 71

0 1,23

01,

370

2,08

01,

870

1,20

060

0 490 44

036

055

059

0 880

990

810

860

690 73

0 670

810

1,31

0 1,35

01,

900

2,00

0 1,75

01,

860

1,64

0 3,44

0 4,53

02,

930

2,73

03,

050

2,65

02,

210

1,73

0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

21/0

2/20

2128

/02/

2021

07/0

3/20

2114

/03/

2021

21/0

3/20

2128

/03/

2021

04/0

4/20

2111

/04/

2021

18/0

4/20

2125

/04/

2021

02/0

5/20

2109

/05/

2021

16/0

5/20

2123

/05/

2021

30/0

5/20

2106

/06/

2021

13/0

6/20

2120

/06/

2021

27/0

6/20

2104

/07/

2021

11/0

7/20

2118

/07/

2021

25/0

7/20

2101

/08/

2021

08/0

8/20

2115

/08/

2021

22/0

8/20

2129

/08/

2021

05/0

9/20

2112

/09/

2021

19/0

9/20

2126

/09/

2021

03/1

0/20

2110

/10/

2021

17/1

0/20

2124

/10/

2021

31/1

0/20

2107

/11/

2021

14/1

1/20

2121

/11/

2021

28/1

1/20

2105

/12/

2021

12/1

2/20

2119

/12/

2021

26/1

2/20

2102

/01/

2022

09/0

1/20

2216

/01/

2022

23/0

1/20

2230

/01/

2022

06/0

2/20

2213

/02/

2022

20/0

2/20

22

Inbound Travel On-island Surveillance Screening Seeking Healthcare (Symptomatic)

0.8%

6.7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Prob

able

Rei

nfec

tions

as

a %

of t

otal

cas

es

Posi

tive

Case

s

Probable Reinfections

New Primary Infections

% of Monthly Cases that are Probably Reinfections

Dec 2021Omicron confirmed

on-Island