LIVE PROJECT

2020 West Bengal Election Forecasting

Spotle.ai

Submitted by: Jyoti Majumder

Assignment 1: Conduct Opinion Polls for West Bengal Assembly Elections 2020

Introduction

The project was based on forecasting results for West Bengal 2020 Assembly elections. Then a survey

was designed through a questionnaire and was floated to common mass over and around the region of

West Bengal mostly and the responses were gathered. It enables to develop and test powerful statistical

models for predicting elections. Based on the survey results, opinion poll was made.

The questionnaire was sent to 230 people. The sample selection was based on the below factors:

1. Location- I tried to cover all constituencies. It allowed me to get 3-4 observations from particular

area.

2. Demographics- I tried to cover people from all age groups, profession and all gender. Since

people from different profession and age group has different expectations from the

government, it gives a clear idea of their views.

Please find the attached excel sheet containing the responses.

Analysis

1. If Assembly elections are held in West Bengal tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

The responses clearly portray that TMC has definitely gained popularity over the years and has made a

mark in common mass’ life but the percentage is not such that tables cannot be turned down by the

time of election. But BJP is progressing very fast to give them a tough fight.

2. Which age group will vote for the party in upcoming election elections?

Irrespective of leading the opinion poll and popularity, it seems that BJP has gained popularity

among the youth more. This reveals that definitely BJP has a chance in the upcoming elections to

turn around tables.

Voting preference

3. If Assembly elections take place in West Bengal tomorrow, then who would you like to see

as the next Chief Minister of the State?

Since most of them preferred Mamata Banerjee, according to this, TMC will win get 43.6% of vote

share and with Mamata Banerjee as CM. This has however become less seeing the switch of voters

to BJP.

Awareness of initiatives

4. Do you support or oppose Citizenship Amendment Bill?

It seems most of the people are fully opposing this initiative and it has brought some changes to the

environment and also to the choice of people in the selection of the party for next elections.

5. Has the Hindu Muslim relationship improved or worsened?

It seems to be a major issue in the verdict of the upcoming elections. Improved or worsened- there is a

discrepancy in the minds of people regarding this.

Pre poll approaches of all parties

TMC, CPM and BJP took lot of initiatives to approach people and convince them for voting in last

few months. While BJP was repeatedly advertising through recorded messages, phone calls, radio,

metros. This can be seen as recall value of BJP was fairly high when asked which party approached

them or talked about voting for them.

6. Did a candidate/party worker of the following parties come to your house to ask for your

vote in the last one month?

7. Were you or any of your family members contacted by the following parties through a

phone call or recorded voice or SMS or WhatsApp in the last one month?

Assignment 2: Summarization of West Bengal Assembly Elections 2015 Results

The table below shows % of vote for different parties-TMC, CPM, BJP, INC and others(amalgamating

vote shares for all other parties plus NOTA) in 294 constituencies of BIHAR ASSEMBLY.

Constituency BJP TMC CPM INC Others 1 Mekliganj 2.51 0 48.67 26.63 15.9

2 Mathabhanga 6.94 46.94 43.74 0 14.03 3 Cooch Behar

Uttar 6.94 43.71 45.11 0 2.52

4 Cooch Behar Dakshin

45.17 4.19 47.04 39.56 15.99

5 Sitalkuchi 30.47 50.47 18.07 0 2.46 6 Natabari 0 44.35 0 34.82 20.83 7 Tufanganj 0 39.04 0 38.74 22.22

8 Kumargram 43.26 45.69 0 0 11.05

9 Kalchini 0 41.71 0 43.48 14.81

10 Alipurduars 0 39.81 37.87 0 22.32

11 Falakata 0 40.12 35.13 0 24.75

12 Madarihat 0 0 45.96 0 54.04

13 Dhupguri 0 43.07 49.87 0 7.06

14 Maynaguri 34.15 0 0 0 65.85

15 Jalpaiguri 0 35.49 47.55 0 16.96

16 Rajganj 0 36.94 0 28.46 34.6

17 Dabgram-Phulbari

0 38.00 0 35.72 26.28

18 Mal 0 43.94 0 32.27 23.79

19 Nagrakata 0 47.45 36.46 0 16.09

20 Kalimpong 0 42.43 39.48 0 18.09

21 Darjeeling 0 36.66 46.97 0 16.37

22 Kurseong 0 0 0 29.71 70.29

23 Matigara-Naxalbari

48.97 34.84 0 0 16.19

24 Siliguri 35.86 49.11 0 0 15.03

25 Chopra 0 40.72 38.25 0 21.03

26 Islampur 0 0 33.73 0 66.27

27 Golpahar 0 0 0 43.30 56.7

28 Chakulia 0 40.66 49.62 0 9.72

29 Kalandughi 0 0 40.52 0 59.48

30 Hemtabad 0 0 0 27.59 72.41

31 Kaliaganj 25.25 0 0 0 74.75

32 Raiganj 41.52 38.01 0 0 20.47

33 Itahar 0 37.04 43.56 0 19.4

34 Kushmandi 0 0 0 37.67 62.33

35 Kumargunj 0 0 44.37 0 55.63

36 Balurghat 0 40.97 45.27 0 13.76

37 Tapan 0 46.23 42.20 0 11.57

38 Hariampur 0 40.20 40.73 0 19.07

39 Gangarampur 0 32.14 0 40.60 27.26

40 Habibpur 0 30.64 0 43.64 25.72

41 Gazole 0 33.24 0 47.54 19.22

42 Chanchal 0 31.15 54.01 0 14.84

43 Hashirpur 0 29.84 0 54.69 15.47

44 Malatipur 0 0 0 57.53 42.47

45 Ratua 0 43.71 38.35 0 17.94

46 Manikchak 0 36.57 51.32 0 12.11

47 Maldaha 0 38.90 0 48.15 12.95

48 English Bazar 0 46.21 32.64 0 21.15

49 Mothabari 52.77 0 0 0 47.23

50 Sujapur 0 0 0 58.60 41.4

51 Farakka 0 46.48 0 41.59 11.93

52 Bahadurganj 33.56 24.82 0 0 41.62

53 Thakurganj 0 0 0 41.23 58.77

54 Suti 38.83 33.80 0 0 27.37

55 Jangipur 0 24.59 0 39.42 35.99

56 Amour 59.16 28.44 0 0 12.4

57 Sagardighi 0 0 41.55 0 58.45

58 Lalgola 44.74 43.75 0 0 11.51

59 Banmankhi 0 35.82 35.39 0 28.79

60 Murshidabad 0 22.79 0 28.13 49.08

61 Nabagram 0 0 0 40.15 59.85

62 Burwan 31.70 49.26 0 0 19.04

63 Kundi 0 42.98 0 33.29 23.73

64 Beldanga 35.45 31.79 0 0 32.76

65 Balrampur 0 21.34 0 20.34 58.32

66 Baharampur 22.10 26.71 0 0 51.19

67 Khargram 38.69 0 0 0 61.31

68 Barari 0 34.45 43.14 0 22.41

69 Rejinagar 45.53 42.38 0 0 12.09

70 Alamnagar 0 0 0 45.74 54.26

71 Bihariganj 0 28.36 0 45.26 26.38

72 Singheshwar 0 0 0 49.45 50.55

73 Madhepura 0 29.03 49.52 0 21.45

74 Sonbarsha 0 0 0 59.66 40.34

75 Saharsa 0 32.82 53.03 0 14.15

76 Simri Bakhtiarpur 0 0 0 47.52 52.48

77 Mahishi 0 0 38.77 0 61.23

78 Naoda 0 0 0 43.07 56.93

79 Gaura Bauram 0 0 0 42.70 57.3

80 Domkal 0 29.04 0 46.88 24.08

81 Alinagar 0 36.66 48.29 0 15.05

82 Jalangi 0 0 51.38 0 48.62

83 Karimpur 0 47.66 43.09 0 9.25

84 Hayaghat 0 0 0 53.32 46.68

85 Bahadurpur 0 35.04 45.95 0 19.01

86 Keoti 0 41.76 47.14 0 11.1

87 Tehatta 0 41.69 0 38.59 19.72

88 Gaighat 0 38.68 40.80 0 20.52

89 Aurai 0 36.42 43.44 0 20.14

90 Minapur 0 34.90 49.60 0 15.5

91 Bochaha 0 0 0 26.18 73.82

92 Sakra 0 39.61 47.92 0 12.47

93 Kurhani 0 42.33 0 35.64 22.03

94 Muzaffarpur 0 55.13 0 37.98 6.89

95 Kanti 0 0 26.22 0 73.78

96 Krishnanagar Uttar

0 40.47 43.62 0 15.91

97 Paroo 0 48.21 40.10 0 11.69

98 Krishnanagar Dakshin

0 37.06 43.65 0 19.29

99 Baikunthpur 0 35.11 0 26.29 38.6

100 Barauli 0 40.12 40.45 0 19.43

101 Santipur 0 45.49 42.55 0 11.96

102 Ranaghat 0 0 0 43.28 56.72

103 Bhorey 44.32 35.46 0 0 20.22

104 Hathua 0 0 0 36.52 63.48

105 Siwan 0 35.02 0 32.78 32.2

106 Ziradei 0 25.51 0 29.99 44.5

107 Chakdah 0 27.07 25.27 0 47.66

108 Kalyani 0 34.67 41.96 0 23.37

109 Daraundha 0 34.95 0 43.67 21.38

110 Haringhata 0 0 0 41.96 58.07

111 HAbra 0 38.14 42.75 0 19.11

112 Maharajganj 0 32.02 0 45.51 22.47

113 Ashoknagar 0 29.53 0 35.32 35.15

114 Manjhi 20.57 0 0 0 79.43

115 Baniapur 0 35.40 45.87 0 18.73

116 Taraiya 0 33.70 47.88 0 18.42

117 Marhaura 0 35.68 47.51 0 16.81

118 Chapra 0 45.27 38.08 0 16.65

119 Garkha 0 31.30 56.59 0 12.11

120 Amnour 0 29.85 0 25.85 44.3

121 Parsa 0 0 0 55.91 44.09

122 Naihati 0 31.67 54.87 0 13.46

123 Hajipur 41.79 48.62 0 0 9.59

124 Barakkpore 0 0 0 34.39 65.61

125 Vaishali 0 0 0 47.62 52.38

126 Panihati 0 0 43.34 0 56.66

127 Dum dum 0 0 45.45 0 54.55

128 Raghopur 0 36.90 49.15 0 13.95

129 Mahnar 0 29.27 0 47.12 23.61

130 Howrah 0 37.57 46.07 0 16.36

131 Basanti 0 0 0 50.40 49.6

132 Sagar 0 0 0 54.65 45.35

133 Samastipur 0 34.01 54.56 0 11.43

134 Jaynagar 0 0 52.24 0 47.76

135 Morwa 0 29.16 0 42.74 28.1

136 Falta 0 30.87 0 53.23 15.9

137 Mohiuddinnagar 0 14.85 37.83 0 47.32

138 Bibhutipur 0 0 0 39.76 60.24

139 Rosera 52.59 31.46 0 0 15.95

140 Kasba 0 0 0 43 57

141 Jadavpur 0 0 0 50.37 49.63

142 Bachhwara 45.83 0 0 0 54.17

143 Tollygunj 0 33.39 43.16 0 23.45

144 Matihani 0 36.53 0 48.97 14.5

145 Sonarpur 0 0 57.12 0 42.88

146 Behala Uttar 49.21 39.47 0 0 11.32

147 Behala Dakshin 0 21.96 49.26 0 28.78

148 Alauli 0 0 51.57 0 48.43

149 Mahestala 0 0 0 46.43 53.57

150 Entally 0 0 0 37.81 62.19

151 Parbatta 0 27.97 0 45.06 26.97

152 Bihpur 0 39.46 48.39 0 12.15

153 Shyampukur 0 37.63 0 41.35 21.02

154 Pirpainti 0 42.29 45.20 0 12.51

155 Kahalgaon 36.68 0 0 0 63.32

156 Bhagalpur 46.24 39.25 0 0 14.51

157 Sankrail 0 0 0 40.94 59.06

158 Nathnagar 0 0 0 39.16 60.84

159 Panchla 0 40.24 0 47.89 11.87

160 Dhauraiya 0 0 0 44.41 55.59

161 Shibpur 0 38.36 35.63 0 26.28

162 Katoria 0 33.55 41.35 0 25.1

163 Belhar 0 34.32 0 44.59 21.09

164 Tarapur 0 0 0 43.62 56.38

165 Munger 0 43.05 45.63 0 11.32

166 Jamalpur 0 0 0 45.68 54.32

167 Suryagarha 0 31.92 50.20 0 17.88

168 Lakhisarai 0 40.79 0 37.27 21.94

169 Shyampur 0 0 0 32.86 67.14

170 Barbigha 41.67 0 0 0 58.33

171 Bagnan 0 0 0 44.29 55.71

172 Biharsharif 0 42.73 0 41.42 15.85

173 Rajgir 0 38.12 0 41.75 20.13

174 Islampur 0 30.65 0 46.40 22.95

175 Hilsa 0 0 48.39 0 51.61

176 Domjur 0 42.93 0 44.78 12.29

177 Harnaut 0 0 0 45.91 54.09

178 Uttarpara 0 0 0 24.66 75.34

179 Barh 0 44.44 0 38.64 16.92

180 Bakhtiarpur 0 40.11 34.95 0 24.94

181 Digha 0 50.74 0 37.17 12.09

182 Bankipur 32.60 60.19 0 0 7.21

183 Kumhrar 32.37 56.25 0 0 11.38

184 Patna Sahib 0 46.89 45.40 0 7.71

185 Fatuha 0 0 50.51 0 49.49

186 HAripal 0 43.23 40.11 0 16.66

187 Maner 0 37.33 50.05 0 12.62

188 Arambagh 0 0 0 49.77 50.23

189 Masaurhi 0 0 48.26 0 51.74

190 Paliganj 0 28.36 45.08 0 26.29

191 Bikram 54.44 28.80 0 0 16.65

192 Tarakeshwar 0 32.75 49.79 0 17.46

193 Barhara 0 35.26 44.34 0 20.4

194 Arrah 0 44.51 44.94 0 10.55

195 Agiaon 0 0 0

196 Tamluk 26.77 0 0 0 73.23

197 Jagdishpur 0 0 33.82 0 66.18

198 Shahpur 0 37.72 47.76 0 14.52

199 Brahampur 0 34.99 52 0 13.01

200 Buxar 41.43 35.09 0 0 23.48

201 Dumraon 0 0 0 47.90 52.1

202 Rajpur 0 29.28 0 47.96 22.76

203 Ramgarh 0 37.20 32.01 0 30.79

204 Mohania 37.93 43.32 0 0 18.75

205 Bhabua 0 34.59 0 29.32 36.09

206 Chainpur 0 33.16 0 17.05 49.79

207 Chenari 38.64 0 0 0 61.36

208 Sasaram 0 36.29 47.56 0 16.15

209 Moyna 0 0 0 32.08 67.92

210 Dinara 0 0

211 Nokha 0 35.31 51.62 0 13.07

212 Haldia 0 0 33.92 0 66.08

213 Karakat 0 31.08 38.99 0 29.93

214 Arwal 0 28.90 42.62 0 28.48

215 Nandigram 0 0 0 37.79 62.21

216 Jargram 0 0 50.87 0 49.13

217 Ghosi 0 0 0 47.58 52.42

218 Chandipur 0 0 51.16 0 48.84

219 Goh 0 35.05 0 30.03 34.92

220 Obra 0 0 34.86 0 65.14

221 Bardhaman 0 27.18 0 31.06 41.76

222 Kutumba 42.74 0 0 0 57.26

223 Balarampupr 41.70 29.64 0 0 28.66

224 Rafiganj 0 0 0 39.47 60.53

225 Gurua 0 39.34 0 34.80 25.86

226 Sherghati 0 0 0 30.11 69.89

227 Imamganj 0 0 0 33.28 66.72

228 Barachatti 0 0 45.42 0 54.58

229 Purulia 0 0 0 0

230 Joypur 34.16 51.82 0 0 14.02

231 Tikari 0 0 0 51.52 48.48

232 Belaganj 0 0 49.38 0 50.62

233 Atri 0 0 38.96 0 61.04

234 Wazirganj 47.36 39.82 0 0 12.82

235 Rajauli 0 42.81 45.81 0 11.38

236 Hisua 0 44.78 0 38.13 17.09

237 Para 0 0 50.12 0 49.88

238 Gobindpur 30.58 27.45 0 0 41.97

239 Warsaliganj 0 51.19 0 39.56 9.25

240 Sikandra 42.66 0 0 0 57.34

241 Jamui 0 37.01 42.24 0 20.75

242 Jhajha 0 40.04 0 26.55 33.41

243 Chakai 0 0 31.31 0 68.69

244 Dinara 0 0

245 Nokha 0 35.31 51.62 0 13.07

246 Haldia 0 0 33.92 0 66.08

247 Karakat 0 31.08 38.99 0 29.93

248 Arwal 0 28.90 42.62 0 28.48

249 Nandigram 0 0 0 37.79 62.21

250 Jargram 0 0 50.87 0 49.13

251 Ghosi 0 0 0 47.58 52.42

252 Chandipur 0 0 51.16 0 48.84

253 Goh 0 35.05 0 30.03 34.92

254 Obra 0 0 34.86 0 65.14

255 Bardhaman 0 27.18 0 31.06 41.76

256 Kutumba 42.74 0 0 0 57.26

257 Balarampupr 41.70 29.64 0 0 28.66

258 Rafiganj 0 0 0 39.47 60.53

259 Gurua 0 39.34 0 34.80 25.86

260 Sherghati 0 0 0 30.11 69.89

261 Imamganj 0 0 0 33.28 66.72

262 Barachatti 0 0 45.42 0 54.58

263 Purulia 0 0 0 0

264 Joypur 34.16 51.82 0 0 14.02

265 Tikari 0 0 0 51.52 48.48

266 Belaganj 0 0 49.38 0 50.62

267 Atri 0 0 38.96 0 61.04

268 Katwa 47.36 39.82 0 0 12.82

269 Rajauli 0 42.81 45.81 0 11.38

270 Bardhaman 0 44.78 0 38.13 17.09

271 Para 0 0 50.12 0 49.88

272 Gobindpur 30.58 27.45 0 0 41.97

273 Warsaliganj 0 51.19 0 39.56 9.25

274 Bolppur 42.66 0 0 0 57.34

275 Kulti 0 37.01 42.24 0 20.75

276 Jhajha 0 40.04 0 26.55 33.41

277 Chakai 0 0 31.31 0 68.69

278 Buxar 41.43 35.09 0 0 23.48

279 Dumraon 0 0 0 47.90 52.1

280 Rajpur 0 29.28 0 47.96 22.76

281 Ramgarh 0 37.20 32.01 0 30.79

282 Mohania 37.93 43.32 0 0 18.75

283 Bhabua 0 34.59 0 29.32 36.09

284 Chainpur 0 33.16 0 17.05 49.79

285 Chenari 38.64 0 0 0 61.36

286 Sasaram 0 36.29 47.56 0 16.15

287 Moyna 0 0 0 32.08 67.92

288 Dinara 0 0

289 Nokha 0 35.31 51.62 0 13.07

290 Haldia 0 0 33.92 0 66.08

291 Gobindpur 30.58 27.45 0 0 41.97

292 Murarai 0 51.19 0 39.56 9.25

293 Rampurhat 42.66 0 0 0 57.34

294 Sainthia 0 37.01 42.24 0 20.75

Win Over Constituencies

226 201

176

151

126

101

76

51

26

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Others TMC CPM BJP INC

District wise result

District Total AITC LF UPA NDA Others

Cooch Behar 9 8 1 0 0 0

Jalpaiguri 7 6 0 1 0 0

Alipurduar 5 4 0 0 1 0

Darjeeling 6 0 1 2 3 0

North Dinajpur 9 4 2 3 0 0

South Dinajpur 6 2 3 1 0 0

Malda 12 1 1 8 1 1(Supported by INC+LF)

Murshidabad 22 4 4 14 0 0

Nadia 17 13 1 3 0 0

North 24 Parganas 33 27 3 3 0 0

South 24 Parganas 31 29 2 0 0 0

Kolkata 11 11 0 0 0 0

Howrah 16 15 0 1 0 0

Hooghly 18 16 1 1 0 0

East Midnapore 16 13 3 0 0 0

West Midnapore 19 17 0 1 1 0

Purulia 9 7 0 2 0 0

Bankura 12 7 3 2 0 0

Burdwan 25 19 5 1 0 0

Birbhum 11 9 1 1 0 0

Count of Constituency

3% 2%

1%

District Total AITC LF UPA NDA Others

Total 294 211 32 44 6 1

2% 3% 2% 1% 2% Coch Beher

3% 3% Jalpaiguri

10%% 3% Alipur Duar 4% 3%

2% Darjeeling

4% 4%

Dinajpur

2% Howrah

3% 4% Malda

Murshidabad

5% 2% Nadia

2%

1% Kolkata 3% 2%

Parganas 3%

6% 2% Hoogly

4%

2%

3%

5%

1%

4%

2% 2%

Midnapore

Purulia

The chart shows the district-wise breakdown of constituencies. West Bengal has 294 Vidhan Sabha

Constituencies distributed evenly almost in 20 districts.

Category Count of Constituency

GEN 240

SC 54

Out of the 294 constituencies, 240 are General while rest are reserved for SC to contest. Male Female

No. of contestants 3177 273

Elected 215 28

Gender-wise representation gives a clear picture that gender quality has not been maintained in

these elections as out of the total contesting candidates only 7.91% are female candidates. On the

other hand, out of the 294 MLAs, only 11% are female. The ratio is much less compared to male

candidates.

Count of Constituency by Category

250

200

150

100

50

0

GEN SC

Gender wise candidates

3500 3177

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500 215 273 28

0

Male Female

No. of contestants Elected

Caste & Community of West Bengal's MLA

70 50.00%

60 45.00% 40.00%

50 35.00%

40 30.00% 25.00%

30 20.00%

20 15.00%

10 10.00% 5.00%

0 0.00%

No. % Share

Out of 294 MLAs, only 20% belongs to the upper caste. While almost half of them belong to Backward

classes.

Party 2010 Vidhan Sabha

2014 Lok Sabha Election

2015 Vidhan Sabha

2019 Lok Sabha Election

BJP 37.45% 29.40% 21.81% 23.58%

INC 1.65% 8.40% 11.11% 7.70%

TMC 47.33% 15.80% 29.22% 21.81%

CPM 9.05% 20.10% 32.92% 15.36%

The above graph shows the performance of the mentioned political parties over a span of 10 years in

the past Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections by their overall vote share.

Partywise Performance over Past 10 years

50.00%

45.00%

40.00%

35.00%

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%

2010 Vidhan Sabha 2014 Lok Sabha 2015 Vidhan Sabha 2019 Lok Sabha Election Election

BJP INC TMC CPMMM