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Julia Clark, Senior Vice President

The Inside Track

2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

12/12/2019

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Julia Clark, Senior Vice President & Head of Communications

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Chris Jackson is on holiday…

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SUMMARY1. Vital Statistics - Key Public Opinion Indicators

2. Perceptions of President Donald Trump

3. Democratic Primary

4. Looking Ahead

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Vital Statistics

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American Consumer Confidence Index

Reuters/Ipsos Data

National Average Index Expectations Index

61.164.4

71.8

50

55

60

65

70

75

80 Jobs Index

2015 2017 20192016 2018

Ipsos Global Economic Indicators – U.S. National Indices

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Direction of the Country

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Right DirectionWrong TrackDon’t know

30%

56%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Main Problem Facing the Country

Reuters/Ipsos Data

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Economy generally

Unemployment/jobs

Healthcare

Terrorism

Immigration

Environment

17%15%13%

7%5%

8%

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Main Problem Facing the Country

Reuters/Ipsos Data November 2019

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

All Adults All Registered Voters

Democratic Registered Voters

Republican Registered Voters

Independent Registered Voters

Economy generally 13% 14% 13% 15% 15%Unemployment / lack of jobs 5% 4% 6% 2% 2%

War / foreign conflicts 3% 3% 3% 1% 6%Immigration 15% 15% 5% 28% 10%

Terrorism / terrorist attacks 8% 9% 8% 11% 7%Healthcare 17% 18% 24% 10% 24%

Energy issues 1% 2% 2% 2% 0%Morality 8% 8% 7% 8% 8%

Education 4% 3% 3% 4% 0%Crime 5% 4% 4% 3% 5%

Environment 7% 9% 13% 4% 7%Other 10% 10% 10% 10% 11%

Don’t know 5% 3% 2% 3% 3%

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Perceptions of President Trump

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Donald Trump’s Approval Rating

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

Total ApprovalTotal Disapproval

Jan

20-2

4, 2

017

Feb

10-1

4, 2

017

Mar

ch 3

-7, 2

017

Mar

ch 2

4-28

, 201

7

April

21-

25, 2

017

May

12-

16, 2

017

June

2-6

, 201

7

June

21-

27, 2

017

July

14-

18, 2

017

Aug

4-8,

201

7

Aug

25-2

9, 2

017

Sept

15-

19, 2

017

Oct

6-1

0, 2

017

Oct

27-

31, 2

017

Nov

17-

21, 2

017

Dec

8-12

, 201

7

Dec

29, 2

017

- Jan

2, 2

018

Jan

19-2

3, 2

018

Feb

9-13

, 201

8

Mar

ch 2

-6, 2

018

Mar

ch 2

3-27

, 201

8

April

13-

17, 2

018

May

4-8

, 201

8

May

25-

29, 2

018

June

15-

19, 2

018

July

6- 1

0, 2

018

July

27-

31, 2

018

Augu

st 1

5-21

Sept

5-1

1, 2

018

Sept

26-

Oct

2, 2

018

Oct

ober

17-

23, 2

018

Nov

embe

r 14-

20, 2

018

Dece

mbe

r 5-1

1, 2

018

Dece

mbe

r 26,

201

8-…

Janu

ary

16-2

2, 2

019

Febr

uary

6-1

3, 2

019

Mar

ch 6

- 12

, 201

9

Mar

ch 2

6 - A

pril

1, 2

019

April

17-

23, 2

019

May

10-

14, 2

019

May

29-

June

5, 2

019

June

24-

25, 2

019

July

15-

16, 2

019

Augu

st 1

-5, 2

019

Augu

st 2

6-27

, 201

9

Sept

16-

17, 2

019

Oct

7-8

, 201

9

Oct

28-

29, 2

019

Nov

18-

19, 2

019

Dec

9-10

, 201

9

54%

40%

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Donald Trump’s Approval Rating by Party Identification

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

DemocratsRepublicans

10%

81%

31%40%

Independents

2017 2018 2019

All Americans

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Perceptions on Impeachment

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Which of the following comes closest to your opinion?

President Trump should NOT be impeachedPresident Trump should be impeached

45%41%

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Perceptions on Impeachment

Reuters/Ipsos Poll December 2019

47%

22%18%

13%

The president should beimpeached and removed from

office

The president should becensured, but that's it

The president did nothing wrongand therefore no action shouldbe taken against the president

Don't know

Imagine that a U.S. President uses the power of the office and the threat of withholding aid or support to pressure another government for an outcome that would benefit the U.S. President, but would not benefit the interests of the American people. Which of the following comes closest to your opinion about this situation?

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Perceptions on Impeachment

Ipsos/538 Poll November-December 2019

57%

41%

Trump HAS committed an impeachable offense Trump HAS NOT committed an impeachable offense

Based on what you know, do you think President Trump HAS or HAS NOT committed an impeachable offense?

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Perceptions on Impeachment

46%

60% 57%50%

36% 39%

Trump asking the government of Ukraine to investigateJoe and Hunter Biden

Trump withholding military aid from Ukraine unless theUkrainians opened an investigation into the Bidens

Trump and his administration attempting to cover upinformation about his actions regarding Ukraine

Impeachable Not impeachable

Based on what you know, if the following happened, would they be impeachable offenses or not impeachable offenses?

Ipsos/538 Poll November-December 2019

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Real Clear Politics National Market Average October-December 2019

National General Election Market Averages

48%44%

Buttigieg Trump

51%

43%

Warren Trump

51%

43%

Sanders Trump

52%

42%

Biden Trump

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Trump remains marginal favorite for 2020 but is probably underperforming where he could be with a strong economy

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Total ApprovalTotal Disapproval

65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%Current President’s Approval Rating

Odd

s of

Win

ning

Incumbent

Successor

Modeled Chance of Government VictoryPresident Trump’s Current Approval Rating

40%

54%

5%

Don’t know

Trump’s odds of winning re-election:

55%

Ipsos Model: Odds of Chief Executive Victory

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Democratic Primary

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2020 Democratic Primary Candidates – It’s still a crowded field

Michael Bennet Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg

Cory Booker Pete Buttigieg Julian Castro John Delaney Tulsi Gabbard

Amy Klobuchar Deval Patrick Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer Elizabeth Warren Marianne Williamson

Andrew Yang

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2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – National Numbers

If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list of candidates below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of Democratic registered voters)

36% 36%

28% 28% 30% 29%

24%27%

9%11%

13% 12%14%

21%

17%14%15% 16%

18%

23%

19%17%

19% 16%

5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6%6% 9%

4%6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019

Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg Michael Bloomberg

Reuters/Ipsos Data

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42%

11% 10% 10% 7% 7%4% 3%

Can beat PresidentTrump

Strong onhealthcare

Can unify theDemocratic Party

Strong on theeconomy and jobs

Strong on theenvironment

Strong progressive Someone new anddifferent

Strong onimmigration

Reuters/Ipsos Poll October 17-18, 2019

Ideal Candidate Trait: Ability to Beat Trump

If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, which of the following candidate traits would be the MOST important factor for you in deciding who to vote for? (Asked of Democratic registered voters)

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Candidate Most Likely to Beat President Trump

For each of the following, select the candidate from the list below you think is best on the particular issue... “Most likely to beat President Trump in the general election” (Asked of Democratic registered voters)

49%

36%41%

38% 38%41%

38%

7% 9% 8%

15%18%

14% 13%13% 14%17% 16% 14%

16%17%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019

Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg

Reuters/Ipsos Data

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1%1%

2%2%2%3%3%

3%7%

16%18%

19%23%

Castro

Bullock

Bloomberg

Gabbard

Booker

Steyer

Yang

Harris

Klobuchar

Warren

Biden

Sanders

Buttigieg

Real Clear Politics Market Average - Iowa: 11/06/2019-12/10/2019; New Hampshire: 11/21/2019-12/08/2019

2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – Iowa & New Hampshire

1%

2%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

13%

14%

18%

19%

Williamson

Booker

Klobuchar

Steyer

Harris

Yang

Gabbard

Warren

Biden

Buttigieg

Sanders

Iowa Democratic Vote Share New Hampshire Democratic Vote Share

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Primary/Caucus Schedule through Super Tuesday

February 3, 2020 February 11, 2020

February 22, 2020

February 29, 2020

March 3, 2020 –SUPER

TUESDAY

Iowa New Hampshire

Nevada South Carolina

Alabama

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Maine

Massachusetts

Minnesota

North Carolina

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

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Looking ahead

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What to Watch For…

Democratic Primary

Fundraising numbers

Media coverage

Donald Trump

State of the economy

Volume of sympathetic media coverage

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Coming soon…Ipsos Political Atlas

• National & local level polling data for 2020

• Social media analytics

• Other key data points – fundraising numbers, internet searches, etc.

• Expert Insight and Analysis

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Ipsos ResourcesThe Point Being – an Ipsos Original Podcast

Cliff’s Take – A Weekly Ipsos Original Thought-leadership Piece

Reuters/Ipsos Public Opinion Partnership

Ipsos Global Economic Indicators

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