2019 - (ILSSC) · Hwawon Seo Rylan Simpson Rebecca Tublitz Seth Williams John R. Hipp Charis E. Kubrin . iii The Irvine Laboratory for the Study of Space and Crime (ILSSC) in the

Presented by the UCI Irvine Lab for the Study of Space and Crime

(ILSSC)

School of Social Ecology

University of California Irvine

January, 2019

Southern California Crime Report

2019

ii

Southern California Crime Report 2019 Authors:

Graduate Student Researchers:

Christopher J. Bates

Christopher Contreras

Benjamin Forthun

Navjyot Gill

Xiaoshuang “Iris” Luo

Michelle D. Mioduszewski

Hwawon Seo

Rylan Simpson

Rebecca Tublitz

Seth Williams

John R. Hipp Charis E. Kubrin

iii

The Irvine Laboratory for the Study of Space and Crime (ILSSC) in the Department of

Criminology, Law and Society at the University of California, Irvine is dedicated to researching

the social ecology of crime at all levels of analysis including street segments, blocks,

neighborhoods, cities, counties, and metropolitan areas. Together with our collaborators and

community partners, our team seeks to generate high quality scientific research on the space-

crime nexus, and to foster intellectual exchange among faculty, graduate students, and

undergraduate students at the University of California, Irvine, as well as members of the larger

community. The team studies: 1) Foundational issues, including the dynamics of urban crime,

the micro-environment of crime, and the role of local institutional resources for fighting crime;

2) Enduring challenges, including inequality, concentrated poverty and concentrated affluence,

urban processes such as economic redevelopment and gentrification, and trends in immigration

and other demographic population shifts; 3) Contemporary challenges, including the housing

crisis and foreclosures, the spatial clustering of multiple social problems, and the continuous

cycling of offenders in and out of prison and on and off of supervision. The ILSSC is a subsidiary

of the Metropolitan Futures Initiative (MFI).

ABOUT THE IRVINE LAB FOR THE STUDY OF SPACE AND CRIME (ILSSC)

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Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... v

Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 1

Chapter 2. Violent and property crime ......................................................................................................... 3

Top 10 cities with cities with highest violent or property crime rates in 2017 ........................................ 3

Top 10 cities with highest violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017 .......................... 5

Top 10 cities with lowest violent or property crime rates in 2017 ........................................................... 8

Top 10 cities with lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017 ........................... 9

Adjusted Crime rates based on city characteristics ................................................................................ 12

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2017 ......................................... 12

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017 ......... 14

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2017 .......................................... 15

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged over 2015-2017 .......... 16

Chapter 3. Change in Violent and Property Crime in last 10 years ............................................................ 18

Top 10 cities with biggest increases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years ...................................... 18

Top 10 cities with biggest increases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years................................... 22

Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years..................................... 26

Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years ................................. 28

Chapter 4. Violent and Property Crime long-term change and projections .............................................. 30

Changes since 1990 in violent and property crime for U.S. cities .......................................................... 30

Projections of violent and property crime for 2019 ............................................................................... 31

County-level changes in violent and property crime .......................................................................... 31

Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 33

Los Angeles County ................................................................................................................................. 34

Orange County ........................................................................................................................................ 48

Riverside County ..................................................................................................................................... 55

San Bernardino County ........................................................................................................................... 61

San Diego County .................................................................................................................................... 67

Ventura County ....................................................................................................................................... 73

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Executive Summary

In this Report, we use the most recent UCR crime data for cities released by the FBI, representing 2017.

Cities with the highest violent and property crime rates tend to be in the Counties of Los Angeles and San Bernardino. The highest violent crime rate is in the City of San Bernardino, which has a rate of violence 280% higher than the national average. And, the highest property crime rate is in Commerce, which has 280% more property crimes than a typical U.S. city.

Cities with the lowest violent and property crime rates tend to not be concentrated in a single county, but rather are located in all counties across the Southern California region. Indian Wells in Riverside County has the lowest violent crime rate, and the City of Imperial has the lowest property crime rate.

In the last year, a diverse mix of cities from counties across the Southern California region saw large decreases in violent and property crime rates. The city of Barstow in San Bernardino County witnessed the largest decrease in violent crime, while the city of Palm Springs in Riverside County saw the largest decrease in property crime rates.

In the last year, the beach city of Santa Monica experienced the largest increase in crimes against persons, and the affluent city of Beverly Hills experienced the largest increase in crimes against property. However, these seem to be minor blips in crime rates for these particular cities, given that neither is among the top 10 cities with the largest increases in violent and property crime rates over a longer time period, say the last 5 or 10 years. It does not follow that short-term increases in crime are indicative of more long-term trends in crime rates.

The largest increases in violent crime in the last 5 years and the last 10 years have overwhelmingly taken place in cities in Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire, although long-term decreases in violent crime rates are taking root across cities in virtually all counties within the Southern California region. Eight of the top 10 cities going through more long-term decreases in violence are in the County of Los Angeles. Indeed, the city going through the largest decrease in violence in the last 10 years is in Los Angeles County: Hawaiian Gardens.

vi

Among the cities with more long-term increases in property crime, eight cities (i.e., Compton, El Centro, Fontana, Huntington Beach, Lake Elsinore, Perris, Pomona, and San Bernardino) have witnessed the largest increases in property crime in the last 5 years and the last 10 years. It does not follow that sizeable, and more durable, increases in levels of property crime characterize crime trends for the Southern California region as a whole.

A range of cities in the Southern California region are undergoing more long-term decreases in property crime rates. Indeed, a few cities in Los Angeles County have seen the largest decreases in property crime over the last 10 years, with Cerritos topping the list, going from almost 70% to only 23% above the national average in property crime.

According to our forecast model, cities are projected to experience an average 12% decrease in violent crime in 2019, and 1% for property crime. Our forecast model also projects violence decreasing in 80% of cities in the region, and property crime decreasing in 53% of the cities in the region.

Chapter 1. Introduction

This is the fourth annual Southern California Crime Report (SCCR). In the SCCR, we use data from

the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program to describe the level of crime in cities located in the

Southern California region in 2017. It is well-known that these data underestimate the actual amount of

crime. This occurs because some crime events are not reported by citizens or detected by the police.

The crime data can also be inaccurate if the police classify some non-crime events as crimes, or if they

code some crime events as non-crimes. Despite these limitations, UCR data is generally recognized as

the best data source available for tracking crime trends in U.S. cities.

In our report, we examine the six most serious types of crime: homicide; aggravated assault;

robbery; burglary; motor vehicle theft; and larceny.1 For the analysis, we analyzed the level of crime for

all cities in the region with a population size of at least 4,000. We use this value given that cities with

very small populations can have excessive crime rates even with very few crime events. The Southern

California region is an area that includes 196 cities in the following counties: 1) Los Angeles; 2) Orange;

3) Riverside; 4) San Bernardino; 5) San Diego; 6) Ventura; 7) Imperial. The region contains 21.7 million

people.

We present results for cities with the top 10 levels of each crime type, cities with the bottom 10

levels of each crime type, and the top 10 increases and top 10 decreases in each crime type. The last

part of the report presents results for each county one at a time.

Methodology

Throughout the SCCR, we have standardized crime rates to compare crime rates for cities within

the Southern California region to the average level of crime for U.S. cities with a population size above

25,000.2 We refer to these as standardized crime rates. We first compute crime rates by dividing the

number of crimes by the most recent estimate of the population in the city. We standardize this value,

and therefore a city that has a crime rate at the average value for the nation will have a standardized

crime rate value of 100. Cities with standardized crime rates greater than 100 are cities with crime rates

greater than the national average; likewise, cities with standardized crime rates less than 100 are cities

with crime rates that are below the average for U.S. cities. For example, a city with a value of 150 for the

1 We do not include rape in the analyses. Definitional differences, as well as policy differences, can lead to

differences in the reported level of rapes across cities that do not represent true differences in the level of this type of crime. Other crimes are less dependent on such reporting decisions. 2 We do not include smaller cities in this computation, since some could have extreme crime rates given the small

population in the denominator.

2

standardized aggravated assault rate measure has 50% more aggravated assaults than the average U.S.

city in that year. And a city with a value of 60 has an aggravated assault rate that is only 60% as large as

that of the national average (or, we might say their aggravated assault rate is 40% less than the average

for cities in the U.S.). Violent crime combines aggravated assaults, robberies, and homicides. Property

crime combines burglaries, motor vehicle thefts, and larcenies.

In several analyses in the report, we computed the crime rate averaged over a 3-year period

(2015-17). This is done to smooth out possible random year-to-year fluctuations in crime that might

occur. While some year-to-year changes in crime reflect true change in the city, others can be due to

idiosyncratic events in a particular year. These 3-year moving averages adjust for these fluctuations.

For computing the change in overall violent or property crime rates, we compute the difference

in these standardized crime rates.

Like last year’s SSCR, we have a section (part of Chapter 2) that adjusts crime rates based on the

socio-demographic characteristics of the city. Thus, these rankings adjust the level of crime based on

certain demographic characteristics that criminologists know are associated with crime in cities. These

adjusted values show the level of crime beyond what might be expected given the socio-demographic

characteristics of the particular city.

And, like last year, we have a section that forecasts the expected violent and property crime rate

for cities in Southern California. We used a statistical model that allows us to forecast the level of violent

crime and property crime in the Southern California cities next year (2019). Our statistical models take

into account the level of crime in these cities over the last 15 years, and how it has been changing, to

forecast how much violent and property crime there will be in these cities. We assessed the quality of

our projection using crime data from 1970 to 2010, and found that the average correlation between our

projection of the property crime rate and the actual property crime rate was .89 over these prior years.

The average correlation of our violent crime projection with the actual level was .95 over these prior

years. Thus, our model appears to do a reasonable job projecting crime levels forward in time.

Nonetheless, we caution the reader that the forecasts for individual cities are simply predictions and

estimates.

3

Chapter 2. Violent and property crime

Top 10 cities with cities with highest violent or property crime rates in 2017

Violent crime

In 2017, the city of San Bernardino had the highest violent crime rate across all cities in Southern

California, with a standardized violent crime rate of 380. The typical U.S. city had a violent crime rate of

100, meaning that San Bernardino’s violent crime rate was 280% higher than the average level of

reported violent crimes in cities across the U.S. (380 – 100 = 280).

Barstow had the second highest violent crime rate, 270% higher than the average U.S. Notably,

the cities of Los Angeles, Lancaster, and Santa Monica were ranked among the top ten cities with the

highest violent crime rate in 2017, rising in their rankings from the previous year. Nine out of ten cities

with the highest rates of violent crime are in either Los Angeles or San Bernardino counties.

Property crime

The city of Commerce, in Los Angeles County, had the highest rate of property crime of all cities

in Southern California in 2017, about 280% higher the average U.S. city and 112% higher than the city

with the second highest property crime rate, Signal Hill. The cities of Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, and

Blythe ranked among the cities in Southern California with the highest rate of property crime,

representing an increase in rankings from the previous year. Eight of the ten cities with the highest rates

of property crime in 2017 were in Los Angeles county.

Three cities – Barstow, Commerce, and Santa Monica – appear in the top ten lists for both

violent and property crime. In the tables below, we present the top ten cities with the highest rates of

violent and property crime, respectively, along with city population.

Below we also present maps showing which cities have the highest or lowest standardized

violent or property crime rates (averaged from 2015-17). In these maps, the cities with the highest crime

rates are shown in red, the second highest are in orange, the third highest are in yellow, those with the

second lowest are shown in green, and those with the lowest are shown in blue.

4

Top 10 cities with highest violent crime rate, 2017

City County

Violent

crime Population

1 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 380.1 217259

2 BARSTOW San Bernardino 370.0 24028

3 COMPTON Los Angeles 350.6 97728

4 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside 299.3 28717

5 COMMERCE Los Angeles 240.1 12994

6 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles 224.1 4007147

7 LANCASTER Los Angeles 223.4 160653

8 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles 223.3 92935

9 NEEDLES San Bernardino 217.4 5011

10 HUNTINGTON PARK Los Angeles 213.0 59004

Top 10 cities with highest property crime rate, 2017

City County

Property

crime Population


2 SIGNAL HILL Los Angeles 268.2 11757

3 SANTE FE SPRINGS Los Angeles 240.6 18339

4 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles 220.2 34781

5 CULVER CITY Los Angeles 201.3 39440

6 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles 198.1 92935

7 WEST HOLLYWOOD Los Angeles 193.5 37093

8 CERRITOS Los Angeles 187.9 50809

9 BLYTHE Riverside 173.1 19572


5

Top 10 cities with highest violent and property crime rates averaged over

2015-2017

These lists show the cities with the highest crime rates, averaged over the last three years

(2015-17). This takes into account unusual yearly fluctuations. This list shows that Compton has the

highest violent crime rate, with 477% more violent crime events than the typical U.S. city over the last

three years. Compton also is in the top 10 for property crimes.

Commerce has the highest average property crime rate over the last three years (173% more

property crime than the average city in the nation), as well as one of the higher violent crime rates. San

Bernardino is in the top 5 for both violent and property crime, and Pomona is in the top 10 for each.

Top 10 cities with highest violent crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)

City County

Violent

crime Population


2 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles 409.1 110811



5 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles 345.1 4007147

6 POMONA Los Angeles 326.0 153066

7 HAWTHORNE Los Angeles 308.7 88664

8 LYNWOOD Los Angeles 286.2 71453

9 PALMDALE Los Angeles 285.9 158094

10 BELLFLOWER Los Angeles 274.9 77984

Top 10 cities with highest property crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)

City County

Property

crime Population


2 EL CENTRO Imperial 261.8 44458


4 PALM SPRINGS Riverside 242.7 48193




8 PERRIS Riverside 193.5 77626

9 NEEDLES San Bernardino 189.1 5011

10 SIGNAL HILL Los Angeles 185.2 11757

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Figure 1. Average adjusted violent crime rate (2015-17) for Southern California cities

7

8

Top 10 cities with lowest violent or property crime rates in 2017 The city of Indian Wells, in Riverside County, had the lowest rate of violent crime of all cities in

Southern California in 2017, nearly 95% lower than the average rate of violent crime across all U.S. cities

and moving 50 slots in the rankings from the previous year. Palos Verdes Estates held the second lowest

rate of violent crime in 2017. Four of the ten cities with the lowest rates of violent crime are in Orange

County.

Imperial, in Imperial County, had the lowest rate of property crime in 2017, about 85% lower

than the average rate of property crime in U.S. cities. Seven of the ten cities with the lowest rates of

property crime are in either Orange County or Ventura County. Notably, four cities – Palos Verdes

Estates, Ojai, Imperial, and Rancho Santa Margarita – are among the cities with the lowest property and

violent crime rates in 2017.

Irvine is the only city with more than 200,000 population on these lists.

Top 10 cities with lowest violent crime rate, 2017

City County

Violent

crime Population

1 INDIAN WELLS Riverside 5.4 5408

2 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles 6.5 13611

3 VILLA PARK Orange 9.9 5933

4 OJAI Ventura 15.5 7603

5 IRVINE Orange 18.0 276115

6 IMPERIAL Imperial 18.4 17629

7 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange 19.2 49144

8 YORBA LINDA Orange 19.2 68889

9 SOUTH PASADENA Los Angeles 20.4 25961

10 MURRIETA Riverside 20.8 113016

Top 10 cities with lowest property crime rate, 2017

City County

Property

crime Population


2 OJAI Ventura 24.9 7603


4 FILLMORE Ventura 31.9 15708

5 ALISO VIEJO Orange 31.9 51984

6 LAGUNA NIGUEL Orange 36.7 65700

7 CUDAHY Los Angeles 37.3 24146

8 LAKE FOREST Orange 37.8 84224

9 MOORPARK Ventura 38.0 36813


9

Top 10 cities with lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over

2015-2017

These lists show the cities with the lowest violent and property crime rates averaged over the

last three years. Palos Verdes Estates has the lowest violent crime rate, while the city of Rancho Santa

Margarita has the lowest property crime rate over the last three years.

Three cities are among the lowest in both violent and property crime: Aliso Viejo, Palos Verdes

Estates, and Rancho Santa Margarita. Irvine is the largest city on these lists and the only one with more

than 100,000 population.

Top 10 cities with lowest violent crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)

City County

Violent

crime Population


2 INDIAN WELLS Riverside 14.1 5408


4 LA HABRA HEIGHTS Los Angeles 20.2 5426

5 LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE Los Angeles 21.4 20480


7 IRVINE Orange 23.5 276115

8 YORBA LINDA Orange 24.1 68889

9 CHINO HILLS San Bernardino 24.2 79480

10 SOLANA BEACH San Diego 26.4 13542

Top 10 cities with lowest property crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)

City County

Property

crime Population



3 MOORPARK Ventura 24.9 36813


5 LAKE FOREST Orange 28.7 84224

6 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles 30.6 11080

7 LAGUNA NIGUEL Orange 31.0 65700

8 POWAY San Diego 32.4 50438

9 SAN MARCOS San Diego 33.1 97290

10 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange 38.0 36532

10

Figure 2. Average adjusted property crime rate (2015-17) for Southern California cities

11

12

Adjusted Crime rates based on city characteristics

In this section we adjust these crime rates for the characteristics of the city. Criminologists are well-aware that cities with certain characteristics typically have higher rates of crime. For example, cities with high levels of poverty tend to have higher rates of crime. Therefore, in this section we adjust the level of crime in the city based upon a number of these characteristics.

Specifically, we adjust for the following city-level characteristics: 1) percent aged 16 to 29 (the most crime-prone population); 2) racial/ethnic composition (percent Asian, percent black, percent Latino, and the level of racial/ethnic heterogeneity); 3) percent immigrants; 4) average household income; 5) level of income inequality; 6) unemployment rate; 7) percent aged 16 to 19 who are drop outs from school; 8) residential stability (the average length of residence for renters, and for owners); 9) percent vacant units; 10) ratio of adults to children (a measure of social control); 11) population density of the city; 12) population of the city; 13) average age of the housing stock.

Adjusting the level of crime for these factors is somewhat analogous to adjusting school performance scores based on the demographic composition of the school. Thus, a city that is particularly advantaged based on these demographic characteristics, and yet has an average level of crime, would actually have a relatively high adjusted level of crime, given that the level of crime is higher than would be expected based on the city’s demographic characteristics.

As such we might refer to this as the unexpected level of crime. That is, these are cities that have

either much higher levels of violent or property crime than we might have expected based on their

socio-demographic characteristics, or much lower levels of violent or property crime than expected.

Why cities might differ from what is expected could be due to many different reasons. We are not able

to determine why these cities differ from expectations.

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2017

There are notable differences between the lists in this section and the earlier ones that did not

adjust for the city characteristics. On the one hand, we earlier saw that San Bernardino has the highest

violent crime rate in the region. Yet, this list shows that when we adjust for the socio-demographic

characteristics of San Bernardino that make it more vulnerable to violence, it no longer remains among

the ten highest violent crime cities in the region. On the other hand, Barstow, which has the second

highest violent crime rate, remains among the highest violent crime cities even after taking into account

the city’s characteristics. The relatively affluent beach cities of Laguna Beach, Del Mar, Malibu, and

Manhattan Beach have relatively high adjusted violent crime rates compared to what we would expect

given the characteristics of these cities.

13

For property crime, we find similar patterns. Whereas Commerce has the highest unadjusted

property crime rate in the region, its level of property crime is not among the ten highest violent crime

cities in the region after adjusting for the city’s socio-demographic characteristics. The relatively

advantaged cities of Hermosa Beach and Del Mar have relatively high property crime rates after

adjusting for city characteristics.

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent crime rate in 2017

City County

Adjusted

violent

crime Population

1 LAGUNA BEACH Orange 93.5 23261

2 ARTESIA Los Angeles 84.8 16933

3 DEL MAR San Diego 80.0 4398

4 BEAUMONT Riverside 76.2 46856


6 MALIBU Los Angeles 70.1 12918

7 BREA Orange 68.1 43000

8 MANHATTAN BEACH Los Angeles 62.4 35843

9 HAWAIIAN GARDENS Los Angeles 60.6 14505

10 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside 58.9 28717

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted property crime rate in 2017

City County

Adjusted

property

crime Population

1 HERMOSA BEACH Los Angeles 82.7 19836


3 VENTURA Ventura 66.6 110006

4 CALEXICO Imperial 65.5 40499

5 OXNARD Ventura 63.3 209513


7 WESTLAKE VILLAGE Los Angeles 59.6 8476

8 COACHELLA Riverside 56.2 45646

9 DEL MAR San Diego 56.0 4398

10 BREA Orange 49.5 43000

14

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged

over 2015-2017

When assessing the cities with the highest average crime rates over the last 3 years, we see that

only two of the top ten cities from the unadjusted list remain on this list. Whereas Compton and

Inglewood are the top two cities for raw violent crime rate, after adjustments they no longer appear on

this top 10 list. After adjusting for the city composition, only Commerce remains among the highest

violent crime cities over the last three years.

Based on these adjusted rates, relatively advantaged cities such as Diamond Bar, Westlake

Village, and Rolling Hills Estates have the highest unexpected average violent crime rates over 2015-17.

Beach communities such as Manhattan Beach also appear on this list.

Pomona has the highest adjusted property crime rate, and beach cities such as Huntington

Beach, Hermosa Beach, and Manhattan Beach have high property crime rates after adjustment.

However, cities such as Commerce and El Centro, which ranked among the highest cities in the

unadjusted property crime 3-year list, do not appear on this list.

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted violent crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)

City County

Adjusted

violent

crime Population


2 DIAMOND BAR Los Angeles 96.0 56996

3 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 80.9 66136


5 WESTLAKE VILLAGE Los Angeles 76.8 8476

6 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES Los Angeles 74.1 8259




10 AGOURA HILLS Los Angeles 66.2 20814

15

Top 10 cities with highest adjusted property crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)

City County

Adjusted

property

crime Population



3 DIAMOND BAR Los Angeles 74.4 56996


5 FONTANA San Bernardino 73.2 211782

6 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 72.5 66136

7 HUNTINGTON BEACH Orange 72.3 202244

8 HERMOSA BEACH Los Angeles 65.6 19836



Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent or property crime rates in 2017

While the cities of Ojai and Villa Park were among the top 5 in low unadjusted violent crime

rates in 2017, they are also near the top in low adjusted rates. However, cities such as Indian Wells and

Irvine do not appear on this list of lowest violent crime rates after adjusting for city characteristics. The

cities of South Pasadena and Twentynine Palms have the 2nd and 4th lowest violent crime rates,

respectively, after adjusting for their city characteristics.

It is particularly notable that whereas Inglewood has the second highest raw violent crime rate,

it appears on this list with one of the lowest adjusted violent crime rates.

The cities of Imperial and Ojai were the top two cities with lowest raw property crime and also

are the top two here after adjusting for city characteristics. However, the cities of Laguna Niguel and

Aliso Viejo had among the lowest unadjusted property crime rates, but do not appear on this list after

adjusting for city characteristics. The cities of Twentynine Palms, Sierra Madre, Holtville, Coronado, San

Juan Capistrano, and Irvine all appear on this list after not appearing on the list of lowest unadjusted

property crime rates.

16

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent crime rate in 2017

City County

Adjusted

violent

crime Population

1 OJAI Ventura -146.8 7603

2 SOUTH PASADENA Los Angeles -124.9 25961

3 VILLA PARK Orange -93.6 5933

4 TWENTYNINE PALMS San Bernardino -87.0 26210

5 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles -86.5 13611

6 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles -80.8 11080

7 CALIMESA Riverside -76.8 8737

8 CORONADO San Diego -75.7 26294

9 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles -70.3 110811

10 IMPERIAL Imperial -68.3 17629

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted property crime rate in 2017

City County

Adjusted

property

crime Population

1 IMPERIAL Imperial -119.8 17629

2 OJAI Ventura -112.4 7603

3 TWENTYNINE PALMS San Bernardino -83.0 26210


5 CUDAHY Los Angeles -73.6 24146

6 HOLTVILLE Imperial -63.3 6519

7 CORONADO San Diego -59.6 26294

8 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange -59.9 36532

9 IRVINE Orange -56.5 276115

10 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange -54.7 49144

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent and property crime rates averaged

over 2015-2017

There are sharp differences between this list of lowest adjusted violent crime rates over the last

three years and the earlier unadjusted rates. Only one of the top 10 cities (Irvine) from the unadjusted

list appears here. South Pasadena has the lowest adjusted violent crime rate over the last three years,

after taking into account the city’s characteristics. The inland cities of Blythe, Holtville, Calexico, Yucaipa,

Palm Beset, and Calimesa have particularly low adjusted violent crime rates over the last three years,

whereas the big city (over 200,000 population) of Irvine in Orange County ranks fourth in lowest

adjusted violent crime rates.

17

Turning to property crime, we see slightly different patterns. On the one hand, the relatively

advantaged cities of Rancho Santa Margarita, Lake Forest, and Sierra Madre are among the top 5 in both

adjusted and unadjusted crime rates. On the other hand, relatively disadvantaged cities such as

Adelanto, Cudahy, and Bell suddenly appear among the top 5 cities with the lowest average property

crime rate over the last three years, after adjusting for city characteristics.

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted violent crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)

City County

Adjusted

violent

crime Population

1 SOUTH PASADENA Los Angeles -109.5 25961

2 BLYTHE Riverside -103.1 19572

3 HOLTVILLE Imperial -85.6 6519

4 IRVINE Orange -81.6 276115

5 CALEXICO Imperial -80.7 40499

6 YUCAIPA San Bernardino -79.9 53614

7 PALM DESERT Riverside -78.1 52845

8 SAN FERNANDO Los Angeles -78.8 24899

9 CALIMESA Riverside -77.6 8737

10 PORT HUENEME Ventura -74.1 22374

Top 10 cities with lowest adjusted property crime rate (based on average over 2015-2017)

City County

Adjusted

property

crime Population

1 ADELANTO San Bernardino -111.2 33693

2 CUDAHY Los Angeles -81.5 24146

3 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange -79.7 36532


5 BELL Los Angeles -75.7 35925

6 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA Orange -73.6 49144

7 LAKE FOREST Orange -70.5 84224

8 SAN MARCOS San Diego -69.8 97290

9 LAGUNA HILLS Orange -63.1 31715

10 NATIONAL CITY San Diego -60.9 61574

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Chapter 3. Change in Violent and Property Crime in last 10 years

Top 10 cities with biggest increases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years

The tables below focus on the cities showing the largest increases in violent crime in recent years. We display three tables: 1) Top 10 with the largest increase in the last year (2016-2017); 2) Top 10 with the largest increase in the last five years (2012-2017); 3) Top 10 with the largest increase in the last ten years (2007-2017).

We also present maps throughout this section, and the following section, showing which cities

have experienced the largest changes in standardized crime rates over the last five years. In these maps,

the cities with the largest increases are shown in red, the second largest are in orange, the third largest

are in yellow, those with the second largest decrease are shown in green, and those with the largest

decreases are shown in blue.

In the last year, Santa Monica experienced the largest increase in violence. The city’s rate of

violence went from about 60% above the national average to about 120% above the national average

from 2016 to 2017. But, this is a recent jump, as the city does not appear on the top ten lists for the last

5 years or the last 10 years, and may therefore represent an anomaly. Alternatively, Compton has

experienced the largest increase in violent crime over the last 5 years and the second largest increase

over the last 10 years, but does not appear on the list for the most recent year. None of the top 10

cities with the largest increases in violent crime from 2016-2017 are among the top 10 for increases in

rates of violence in the last 5 years.

Cities that are in the top 10 for largest increases in violence in the last 10 years but not in the list

for more recent periods indicate that the rate of increase in violence has slowed. This includes cities

such as Inglewood, Commerce, and Pasadena. The largest increases in violent crime over the last 5 years

and last 10 years have overwhelmingly taken place in cities in Los Angeles and Riverside Counties.

Indeed, six cities from Los Angeles County and three from Riverside County appear on the top 10 list for

the last 10 years.

19

Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate from 2015-2017

City County Change First year This year Population

1 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles 64.6 158.7 223.3 92935

2 IMPERIAL BEACH San Diego 62.5 79.4 141.9 27593

3 LA VERNE Los Angeles 51.9 31.1 83.0 32613

4 HOLTVILLE Imperial 49.6 63.3 112.9 6519

5 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside 46.2 253.1 299.3 28717

6 BRAWLEY Imperial 37.6 159.0 196.7 26342

7 GLENDORA Los Angeles 29.7 43.2 72.8 52133

8 GRAND TERRACE San Bernardino 25.7 49.2 74.9 12584

9 DEL MAR San Diego 25.6 54.7 80.3 4398

10 VENTURA Ventura 25.1 97.9 123.1 110006

Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 COMPTON Los Angeles 275.9 301.6 577.5 97728

2 LOS ANGELES Los Angeles 228.1 117.0 345.1 4007147

3 BEAUMONT Riverside 198.3 28.2 226.5 46856

4 LAKE ELSINORE Riverside 144.6 91.0 235.6 66136

5 PALM SPRINGS Riverside 143.5 108.7 252.2 48193

6 PERRIS Riverside 138.1 103.6 241.7 77626

7 BELLFLOWER Los Angeles 137.0 137.9 274.9 77984

8 PALMDALE Los Angeles 134.9 151.1 285.9 158094

9 POMONA Los Angeles 127.8 198.2 326.0 153066

10 VICTORVILLE San Bernardino 126.3 133.6 259.9 123284

Top 10 cities with largest increase in violent crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles 297.3 111.8 409.1 110811


3 COMMERCE Los Angeles 233.5 154.3 387.8 12994

4 BEAUMONT Riverside 190.2 36.3 226.5 46856

5 BELLFLOWER Los Angeles 155.6 119.2 274.9 77984

6 VICTORVILLE San Bernardino 154.8 105.1 259.9 123284


8 PASADENA Los Angeles 146.0 115.5 261.5 142891



20

Figure 3. Change in average adjusted violent crime rate (2015-17) for Southern California cities

21

22

Top 10 cities with biggest increases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years

These next tables and paragraphs highlight cities which experienced the biggest increases in

property crime rates. First, Beverly Hills in the County of Los Angeles experienced the largest increase in

property crime from 2015-2017. Although this dramatic increase in the crime rate may be alarming, it is

important to note that this city does not rank among the top 10 cities with the largest increases in

property crime rates in the last 5 and 10 years, suggesting that such change may be the result of a short-

term fluctuation. The pattern for other cities with the largest increases in property crime rates from

2015-2017 appears to be similar to Beverly Hills: none of the top 10 cities which experienced the largest

short-term increases in property crime rates also experienced the largest long-term increases.

In terms of geography, we find a split distribution of cities experiencing short-term property

crime rate increases across Southern California: 4 cities are located in the County of Los Angeles, 2 cities

are located in the Counties of Riverside and San Bernardino, respectively, 1 city is located in the County

of Orange, and 1 city is located in the County of San Diego. Although a similar pattern emerges for the

geography of cities ranking highest in the longer-term trends, it is worthwhile to note that more cities

(3) with the largest increases in property crime rates in the last 5 years are located in the County of

Riverside. Most cities (4) with the largest increases in the last 10 years are located in the County of Los

Angeles.

Finally, we find that several cities in the Southern California region experienced large increases

in property crime rates in both the last 5 and 10 years. At the same time, not all cities rank equally in

both long-term trends: whereas El Centro, Pomona, and Lake Elsinore share the same ranking in the last

5 and 10 years, San Bernardino, Fontana, Perris, and Huntington Beach do not. For example, San

Bernardino ranked 1st for the largest increase in property crime in the last 5 years, but 10th for the

largest increase in the last 10 years. Huntington Beach ranked 10th for the largest increase in property

crime in the last 5 years, but 5th for the largest increase in the last 10 years. Although there is some

fluctuation in these cities’ rankings across temporal trends, the results nonetheless suggest that longer

term dynamics may be driving the property crime rate upward in these cities. All cities which ranked in

the top 10 for largest increases in property crime rates in the last 5 and 10 years have above average

property crime rates this year.

23

Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate from 2015-2017


1 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles 51.5 168.6 220.2 34781

2 INDIAN WELLS Riverside 38.0 85.7 123.8 5408

3 LA VERNE Los Angeles 28.0 70.9 98.9 32613

4 BLYTHE Riverside 22.7 150.5 173.1 19572

5 SOUTH EL MONTE Los Angeles 22.0 115.0 137.0 21012

6 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles 18.8 179.4 198.1 92935

7 CHINO HILLS San Bernardino 18.7 53.5 72.1 79480

8 SEAL BEACH Orange 18.4 92.1 110.5 24495

9 LEMON GROVE San Diego 17.3 78.7 96.0 27113

10 NEEDLES San Bernardino 15.5 134.0 149.5 5011

Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 150.4 107.8 258.2 217259

2 EL CENTRO Imperial 141.4 120.4 261.8 44458



5 FONTANA San Bernardino 110.5 51.9 162.4 211782

6 PALM SPRINGS Riverside 105.7 137.0 242.7 48193


8 PALMDALE Los Angeles 94.8 58.7 153.5 158094


10 HUNTINGTON BEACH Orange 70.7 91.2 161.9 202244

Top 10 cities with largest increase in property crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving

averages)



2 EL CENTRO Imperial 162.2 99.6 261.8 44458


4 COMMERCE Los Angeles 130.3 142.6 272.9 12994

5 HUNTINGTON BEACH Orange 122.9 38.9 161.9 202244



8 FONTANA San Bernardino 111.7 50.7 162.4 211782

9 INGLEWOOD Los Angeles 92.9 60.1 153.1 110811

10 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino 89.9 168.4 258.2 217259

24

Figure 4. Change in average adjusted property crime rate (2015-17) for Southern California cities

25

26

Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in violent crime in last 1, 5, and 10 years

These next tables review the cities experiencing the largest relative decrease in violent crime.

The crime levels that are shown are standardized to the national average for a particular year.

Therefore, some of the cities on this list could appear to have “higher” crime even though they are

among those with the biggest decreases in violent crime. They actually have experienced decreases, and

these standardized measures simply obscure this fact.

Turning to the table showing the top 10 cities with the largest decrease in violent crime from

2015 to 2017, we see a diverse mix of cities from counties across the Southern California region. Four of

the cities are in San Bernardino County, including the largest decreases in Barstow and Needles, which

have fallen somewhat from very high levels. Eastvale and Twentynine Palms have gone from just above

the national average to a level well below the average.

Moving on to the table showing the top 10 cities with the largest decrease in violent crime in the

last 5 years, we see cities from counties across the Southern California region sustaining more long-term

decreases in rates of violence. The small city of Cudahy in the County of Los Angeles has experienced the

largest drop in violent crime over the last 5 years, going from about 165% above the national average to

near the average level of violence for the nation. Calexico, Duarte, and Anaheim have all gone from

violence levels 40-50% above the national average to levels below the average.

The largest long-term decrease in violent crime in the last 10 years has occurred in Hawaiian

Gardens, San Fernando, and the Westside cities of Culver City and Santa Monica. Notably, eight of the

top 10 cities experiencing these more long-term decreases in violence are in the County of Los Angeles.

Also worth highlighting is that the city of Duarte has enjoyed sizeable decreases in violent crime

rates in the last 5 years and in the last 10 years. Duarte therefore maintains a steady position among

cities in the Southern California region with regard to more long-term drops in violent crime rates.

27

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate from 2015-2017


1 BARSTOW San Bernardino -114.6 483.4 370.0 24028

2 NEEDLES San Bernardino -84.3 301.0 217.4 5011

3 EASTVALE Riverside -83.0 108.9 25.9 62422

4 COMMERCE Los Angeles -81.0 321.1 240.1 12994

5 HEMET Riverside -74.5 231.5 158.0 85166

6 CALEXICO Imperial -73.9 136.8 64.7 40499

7 TWENTYNINE PALMS San Bernardino -65.1 109.8 44.9 26210

8 SAN BERNARDINO San Bernardino -55.5 434.5 380.1 217259

9 BELL GARDENS Los Angeles -49.5 117.1 68.6 42930

10 SIERRA MADRE Los Angeles -46.0 67.3 21.3 11080

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 CUDAHY Los Angeles -155.4 266.5 111.9 24146

2 DESERT HOT SPRINGS Riverside -112.4 354.2 242.7 28717

3 CALEXICO Imperial -106.3 153.1 47.4 40499

4 STANTON Orange -89.2 179.3 90.4 38767

5 OCEANSIDE San Diego -80.9 219.3 140.2 176815

6 DUARTE Los Angeles -75.0 150.1 75.1 21877

7 ANAHEIM Orange -59.3 139.0 80.3 353400

8 ARTESIA Los Angeles -56.6 251.1 195.7 16933

9 ONTARIO San Bernardino -55.9 212.3 158.3 174724

10 CARLSBAD San Diego -53.5 98.9 46.4 115344

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in violent crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 HAWAIIAN GARDENS Los Angeles -110.6 287.5 178.1 14505

2 SAN FERNANDO Los Angeles -51.5 164.9 114.4 24899

3 CULVER CITY Los Angeles -46.4 173.3 127.8 39440

4 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles -33.7 169.8 137.5 92935

5 BEVERLY HILLS Los Angeles -31.9 127.5 97.5 34781

6 SAN JACINTO Riverside -30.0 149.0 119.0 47932

7 NATIONAL CITY San Diego -26.6 184.7 159.3 61574

8 SANTA CLARITA Los Angeles -26.8 69.9 44.7 216350


10 ALHAMBRA Los Angeles -25.7 99.9 75.6 85865

28

Top 10 cities with biggest decreases in property crime in last 1, 5, and 10

years

These next tables and paragraphs highlight cities which experienced the biggest decreases in

property crime rates. First, Palm Springs in the County of Riverside experienced the largest decrease in

property crime from 2015-2017. At the same time, Palm Springs did not rank in the list of cities with the

largest decreases in property crime rates in the last 5 and 10 years, suggesting that such change may be

the result of a short-term fluctuation. Indeed, no cities which experienced the largest decreases in

property crime rates during this short-term period ranked in the lists of cities which experienced the

largest decreases in the last 5 and 10 years.

In terms of geography, we find a split distribution of cities experiencing short-term property

crime rate decreases across Southern California: 3 cities are located in the County of Los Angeles, 3 cities

are located in the County of Riverside, and the remaining 4 cities are each located in the Counties of

Orange, Imperial, San Bernardino, and San Diego. At the same time, proportionally more cities in the

counties of Orange (2) and San Diego (2) experienced the largest decreases in property crime rates in

both the last 5 and 10 years.

Finally, we find that several cities in the Southern California region experienced large decreases

in property crime rates in both the last 5 and 10 years. For example, Cerritos ranked 1st for the largest

decrease in property crime rates in both the last 5 and 10 years. The remaining cities which ranked in

both lists, however, did not share the same ranking across trends. For example, Desert Hot Springs

ranked 3rd for the largest decrease in property crime in the last 5 years, but 9th for the largest decrease

in the last 10 years. Carlsbad ranked 4th for the largest decrease in property crime in the last 5 years,

but 5th for the largest decrease in the last 10 years. Although there is some fluctuation in these cities’

rankings across temporal trends, the results nonetheless suggest that longer term dynamics may be

driving property crime downward in these cities. Cerritos and Desert Hot Springs both have above

average property crime rates this year.

29

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate from 2015-2017


1 PALM SPRINGS Riverside -69.7 239.7 171.5 48193

2 EL CENTRO Imperial -46.0 218.3 172.3 44458

3 ORANGE Orange -43.6 119.5 77.1 141130

4 ARTESIA Los Angeles -38.2 152.2 114.4 16933

5 EASTVALE Riverside -38.2 126.7 88.9 62422

6 SIGNAL HILL Los Angeles -38.4 305.7 268.2 11757

7 LA MESA San Diego -32.4 114.7 83.1 60425

8 RANCHO MIRAGE Riverside -29.0 160.3 131.2 18347

9 SANTE FE SPRINGS Los Angeles -28.2 268.4 240.6 18339

10 BARSTOW San Bernardino -26.8 198.3 173.1 24028

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate in last 5 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 CERRITOS Los Angeles -119.2 241.5 122.7 50809

2 SANTA ANA Orange -76.4 147.7 72.1 335699



5 RIALTO San Bernardino -51.7 129.3 79.0 103980

6 SANTA MONICA Los Angeles -45.1 158.6 113.6 92935

7 LOS ALAMITOS Orange -39.3 100.7 61.9 11671


9 ADELANTO San Bernardino -32.1 80.6 48.7 33693

10 OCEANSIDE San Diego -31.7 111.3 81.1 176815

Top 10 cities with largest decrease in property crime rate in last 10 years (based on three-year moving

averages)


1 CERRITOS Los Angeles -46.0 168.7 122.7 50809

2 NATIONAL CITY San Diego -42.4 121.4 79.8 61574

3 INDIAN WELLS Riverside -32.8 118.9 87.7 5408

4 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO Orange -24.5 61.5 38.0 36532


6 CUDAHY Los Angeles -22.9 59.2 38.1 24146

7 ANAHEIM Orange -21.6 111.3 90.9 353400

8 LA PUENTE Los Angeles -18.0 63.5 45.5 40467


10 PALOS VERDES ESTATES Los Angeles -15.5 42.6 28.1 13611

30

Chapter 4. Violent and Property Crime long-term change and projections

Changes over last 20 years in violent and property crime for U.S. cities

Given the discussion in the media about long-term trends in crime rates across U.S. cities, we

show how violent and property crime have changed in U.S. cities over the last 20 years. The following

chart shows how violent and property crime rates have changed since then in U.S. and Southern

California cities with at least 10,000 population. The chart highlights that whereas the property and

violent crime rates were higher in Southern California cities compared to U.S. cities 20 years ago, they

have exhibited an even sharper downward trajectory compared to the U.S. and are now comparatively

lower.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1998 2003 2008 2013 2010 2015

Long-term trend in crime for U.S. cities and Southern California cities

National v iolent crime rate (right axis) So Cal violent crime rate (right axis) National property crime rate (left axis) So Cal property crime rate (left axis)

31

Projections of violent and property crime for 2019

We next present forecasted violent and property crime rates in Southern California cities for 2019 based on our statistical model.

We first present the expected change in all cities in the region from 2017 to 2019. We then describe how the model projects changes in the cities in each county. We remind the reader that the forecasts for individual cities have a confidence interval around the predicted value, and therefore reflect our “best guess” of the level of crime for 2019.

County-level changes in violent and property crime

In general, our projection model forecasts an overall relative drop in both violent and property

crime in the region from 2017 to 2019. Compared to the violent crime rate in 2017, our model projects

an average decrease across cities of 11.7% in 2019. Our model also projects a 1% decrease in property

crime events from 2017 to 2019.

Our projection model forecasts decreasing violent and property crime rates in 80% and 53% of

Southern California cities, respectively.

Turning to the individual counties, our model forecasts that cities in Los Angeles County will

generally fare similarly to the region overall, although with slightly larger crime drops. The model

forecasts a 17% decrease in violent crime and a 1.4% decrease in property crime in 2019, on average, for

cities in Los Angeles County. 88% of cities are projected to experience a decrease in violent crime,

whereas 57% are projected to experience a decrease in property crime.

The model forecasts that Orange County cities will experience decreases in crime. Cities in

Orange County are projected to have, on average, 14% less violent crime and 2.6% less property crime.

82% of cities are projected to experience decreasing violent crime and 61% are projected to experience

decreasing property crime.

Riverside County cities are forecasted to experience slight upticks for crime. They are

forecasted for a 4% increase in violence compared to 2017, and a 5% increase in property crime

compared to 2017. Whereas 67% of cities in the County of Riverside are projected to experience fewer

crimes against persons, 41% of cities are expected to have fewer crimes against property.

32

San Bernardino County cities, on average, are projected to experience a 2.5% decrease in violent

crime but a 1.6% increase in property crime from 2017 to 2019. 68% of the cities are projected to

experience a decrease in violent crime, and 41% for property crime.

San Diego County cities are forecasted to experience drops in crime levels. Our model forecasts

a 24% decrease in violent crime, on average, across San Diego cities, with 94% of cities projected to see

decreasing levels of violence. Our model forecasts a 3% decrease in property crime, on average, across

cities in San Diego County, with 67% of cities expected to see decreasing levels of non-violent acquisitive

crimes.

Finally, whereas Ventura County cities are projected to experience an increase in violent crime

of 2.2% more than 2017, property crime is projected to decrease nearly 9% on average across these 10

cities.

Projected change for cities in the counties of the region from 2017 to 2019

County

Average

projected

change in

violent crime

Average

projected

change in

property crime

Percent cities

projected

decreasing

violent crime

Percent cities

projected

decreasing

property crime

Region -11.7% -1.0% 80.3% 53.2%

Los Angeles -17.0% -1.4% 87.7% 56.8%

Orange -13.8% -2.6% 81.8% 60.6%

Riverside 4.2% 4.9% 66.7% 29.2%

San Bernardino -2.5% 1.6% 68.2% 40.9%

San Diego -24.2% -3.1% 94.4% 66.7%

Ventura 2.2% -9.1% 50.0% 60.0%

33

Appendix

In this Appendix, we display the adjusted crime rates for all cities in each of the six major counties in the region. We present the results for each county separately, beginning with Los Angeles County. The first table for each county shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2017) for all cities in the county. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2015-17) for all cities in the county. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county. Each Figure presents the trajectories for a geographic cluster of cities. A map in each section shows the geographic clustering of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the bottom value

is a city with no violent crime, whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent crime rate 300% higher than the regional average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain cities had particularly high violent crime rates.

To understand how to interpret the

tables, note that in the first table for Los Angeles County, the city of Artesia has a standardized aggravated assault rate of 152, indicating that in 2017 their aggravated assault rate was 52% higher than the average city in the region. The burglary rate in Artesia was 159.5% higher than the average city in the nation (259.5 – 100 = 159.5). Artesia’s homicide in 2017 was 177.6% higher than the national average. However, its larceny rate was just 10.67% higher than the national average.

34

Los Angeles County Standardized crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County, 2017

City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 AGOURA HILLS 22.5 22.2 0.0 86.8 43.8 50.8 20814

2 ALHAMBRA 33.8 119.7 107.9 107.5 143.3 82.0 85865

3 ARCADIA 37.4 109.8 0.0 209.5 71.2 92.0 58883

4 ARTESIA 188.0 211.4 273.7 229.8 191.1 78.9 16933

5 BALDWIN PARK 140.5 134.1 90.7 96.2 194.5 58.2 76636

6 BELL 173.4 250.7 0.0 108.3 191.6 54.8 35925

7 BELL GARDENS 50.2 126.4 107.9 51.5 339.7 45.1 42930

8 BELLFLOWER 110.5 233.9 148.5 136.3 295.1 77.3 77984

9 BEVERLY HILLS 78.1 166.0 0.0 293.9 129.7 214.5 34781

10 BURBANK 65.8 94.9 0.0 86.3 106.7 126.8 104622

11 CALABASAS 13.5 42.8 0.0 65.9 35.6 57.8 24295

12 CARSON 141.5 206.1 199.3 131.0 249.9 76.7 92992

13 CERRITOS 46.1 161.3 91.2 280.8 175.8 168.3 50809

14 CLAREMONT 45.2 95.6 0.0 195.8 85.5 92.6 36246

15 COMMERCE 212.6 355.4 178.3 256.4 1210.0 304.0 12994

16 COMPTON 320.5 521.0 497.9 107.0 359.1 81.2 97728

17 COVINA 93.3 121.0 95.2 147.9 173.2 82.8 48674

18 CUDAHY 81.4 138.7 0.0 43.2 151.0 21.8 24146

19 CULVER CITY 60.5 383.5 0.0 134.1 124.8 225.3 39440

20 DIAMOND BAR 22.2 50.6 0.0 170.0 56.0 58.8 56996

21 DOWNEY 71.8 185.1 61.2 132.4 307.1 93.0 113511

22 DUARTE 89.9 95.0 211.8 83.7 114.6 58.2 21877

23 EL MONTE 88.7 181.9 99.7 150.4 273.8 69.7 116168

24 EL SEGUNDO 38.7 143.2 136.8 274.9 218.0 141.4 16932

25 GARDENA 120.5 417.7 153.8 149.0 273.8 63.7 60249

26 GLENDALE 25.9 72.4 34.3 62.6 71.4 64.4 202381

27 GLENDORA 72.8 73.1 0.0 121.0 91.8 128.1 52133

28 HAWAIIAN GARDENS 177.6 238.8 0.0 136.8 267.1 62.8 14505

29 HAWTHORNE 148.9 358.1 130.7 117.0 264.7 86.2 88664

30 HERMOSA BEACH 40.1 40.7 0.0 148.7 110.3 121.5 19836

31 HUNTINGTON PARK 146.0 385.5 157.1 90.5 543.8 86.6 59004

32 INGLEWOOD 142.4 405.3 271.8 112.9 329.8 74.9 110811

33 LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 20.6 33.8 0.0 130.4 44.5 44.8 20480

34 LA HABRA HEIGHTS 17.3 21.3 0.0 135.9 50.4 62.6 5426

35 LA MIRADA 57.9 79.6 93.9 73.7 127.5 71.7 49328

36 LA PUENTE 105.3 122.7 0.0 57.8 182.4 26.6 40467

37 LA VERNE 77.5 95.6 0.0 106.8 92.2 97.7 32613

38 LAKEWOOD 87.0 214.4 85.5 137.0 145.2 120.1 81317

39 LANCASTER 229.4 242.2 216.3 148.0 184.4 61.0 160653

40 LAWNDALE 150.9 229.5 139.5 57.4 197.6 36.5 33205

35

41 LONG BEACH 162.8 303.0 108.1 149.2 263.8 85.3 471397

42 LOS ANGELES 198.1 311.6 162.5 105.8 218.3 92.9 4007147

43 LYNWOOD 140.2 355.5 259.4 104.3 446.5 54.5 71453

44 MALIBU 87.0 53.6 0.0 153.6 116.4 111.7 12918

45 MANHATTAN BEACH 31.4 116.0 0.0 127.0 90.3 98.7 35843

46 MAYWOOD 111.7 162.7 167.5 62.5 228.9 32.1 27671

47 MONROVIA 32.7 80.7 124.5 82.0 101.6 98.1 37214

48 MONTEBELLO 81.1 149.2 73.0 266.4 330.3 46.3 63473

49 MONTEREY PARK 35.2 103.7 37.9 182.4 163.1 88.3 61210

50 NORWALK 124.2 144.5 109.0 100.0 178.0 59.8 106278

51 PALMDALE 125.0 159.2 58.6 98.6 125.4 57.7 158094

52 PALOS VERDES ESTATES 0.0 17.0 0.0 80.3 16.7 32.0 13611

53 PARAMOUNT 157.4 262.2 252.6 130.8 362.7 91.7 55041

54 PASADENA 102.6 163.2 129.7 132.6 114.5 73.0 142891

55 PICO RIVERA 103.6 135.8 36.3 99.7 235.2 75.7 63746

56 POMONA 123.3 259.5 272.5 119.3 372.2 93.0 153066

57 RANCHO PALOS VERDES 23.1 19.0 0.0 90.8 37.5 34.4 42563

58 REDONDO BEACH 66.1 105.2 0.0 133.8 113.8 86.7 68051

59 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES 51.0 14.0 0.0 129.3 44.1 70.6 8259

60 ROSEMEAD 86.6 124.7 42.4 153.7 232.0 74.5 54615

61 SAN DIMAS 51.6 80.3 0.0 116.5 101.7 82.0 34499

62 SAN FERNANDO 139.2 157.7 279.2 86.8 166.6 41.8 24899

63 SAN GABRIEL 80.9 113.9 57.2 124.9 67.5 56.8 40531

64 SAN MARINO 28.0 51.7 0.0 241.0 6.8 53.2 13402

65 SANTA CLARITA 40.3 65.1 42.8 79.2 86.4 52.2 216350

66 SANTA MONICA 205.1 299.4 74.8 177.3 129.5 210.8 92935

67 SANTE FE SPRINGS 137.9 302.2 0.0 253.8 439.9 212.3 18339

68 SIERRA MADRE 25.4 10.4 0.0 98.7 16.5 31.2 11080

69 SIGNAL HILL 91.6 333.9 197.1 201.2 523.3 250.8 11757

70 SOUTH EL MONTE 178.3 192.3 220.5 204.5 436.0 84.6 21012

71 SOUTH GATE 197.6 269.0 145.2 134.7 444.2 100.0 95717

72 SOUTH PASADENA 10.8 40.0 89.2 127.3 103.6 68.7 25961

73 TEMPLE CITY 37.2 63.3 127.0 179.8 46.2 39.8 36500

74 TORRANCE 36.5 90.8 0.0 96.0 134.7 84.9 147482

75 WALNUT 35.7 30.6 0.0 195.4 48.3 41.4 30189

76 WEST COVINA 43.3 153.8 0.0 118.1 172.8 95.3 108128

77 WEST HOLLYWOOD 128.8 379.7 62.5 160.4 127.8 208.6 37093

78 WESTLAKE VILLAGE 49.7 54.5 0.0 144.0 26.9 103.5 8476

79 WHITTIER 76.8 181.5 132.9 122.6 163.7 115.2 87141


81 WHITTIER 72.7 118.8 53.9 118.8 192.7 118.6 87860

36

Standardized crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 AGOURA HILLS 88.3 35.8 0.0 72.4 72.2 44.1 20814

2 ALHAMBRA 48.2 141.3 63.5 88.7 155.5 70.3 85865

3 ARCADIA 69.0 122.8 13.8 128.4 90.3 99.8 58883

4 ARTESIA 186.5 240.4 164.2 110.4 150.3 52.1 16933

5 BALDWIN PARK 84.5 86.5 71.0 91.4 123.0 59.0 76636

6 BELL 137.6 280.4 153.5 61.3 171.9 34.6 35925

7 BELL GARDENS 194.4 324.7 252.0 135.6 308.6 47.1 42930

8 BELLFLOWER 267.4 328.5 145.2 161.4 323.2 89.5 77984

9 BEVERLY HILLS 72.6 160.6 19.3 126.5 65.5 108.6 34781

10 BURBANK 82.4 138.5 64.5 91.7 219.6 95.3 104622

11 CALABASAS 19.5 39.0 0.0 43.9 32.7 43.5 24295

12 CARSON 143.5 152.8 152.3 158.0 224.0 71.5 92992

13 CERRITOS 62.0 140.7 59.3 120.9 191.5 114.4 50809

14 CLAREMONT 42.4 67.6 0.0 97.1 61.5 68.4 36246

15 COMMERCE 363.3 480.6 396.1 251.4 772.3 215.1 12994

16 COMPTON 435.4 941.5 1022.6 404.3 660.6 111.9 97728

17 COVINA 78.6 110.0 28.0 95.6 117.3 76.6 48674

18 CUDAHY 103.7 137.3 161.0 32.2 190.0 20.2 24146

19 CULVER CITY 59.9 297.9 75.4 111.4 158.1 165.3 39440

20 DIAMOND BAR 167.7 124.5 0.0 130.9 254.3 77.0 56996

21 DOWNEY 56.1 189.5 57.2 164.2 218.4 92.7 113511

22 DUARTE 78.4 73.2 93.3 54.8 79.3 46.0 21877

23 EL MONTE 171.1 291.5 253.2 242.2 272.0 112.0 116168

24 EL SEGUNDO 33.0 108.6 120.6 125.2 122.8 102.4 16932

25 GARDENA 120.4 374.8 139.6 126.3 216.2 80.8 60249

26 GLENDALE 41.4 89.9 51.2 70.3 127.0 79.0 202381

27 GLENDORA 51.1 68.8 26.7 58.4 66.6 81.2 52133

28 HAWAIIAN GARDENS 168.9 228.0 0.0 75.2 218.4 63.1 14505

29 HAWTHORNE 220.0 544.9 189.3 125.2 316.4 88.9 88664

30 HERMOSA BEACH 94.5 91.2 34.9 165.2 122.4 81.2 19836

31 HUNTINGTON PARK 129.9 464.3 292.2 158.3 373.7 83.2 59004

32 INGLEWOOD 208.9 885.7 660.8 231.7 440.6 91.3 110811

33 LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 18.5 27.4 0.0 67.0 30.9 32.4 20480

34 LA HABRA HEIGHTS 15.5 17.2 0.0 69.9 34.9 45.3 5426

35 LA MIRADA 75.6 79.9 43.7 81.8 101.3 53.2 49328

36 LA PUENTE 170.7 186.2 206.6 51.9 153.4 29.5 40467

37 LA VERNE 73.9 77.5 0.0 129.2 56.9 86.3 32613

38 LAKEWOOD 120.6 190.2 85.6 81.5 185.5 85.2 81317

39 LANCASTER 270.9 227.4 148.7 129.4 152.6 65.5 160653

40 LAWNDALE 185.0 405.0 147.1 183.7 177.2 56.1 33205

37

41 LONG BEACH 143.9 372.8 186.7 156.3 242.9 94.9 471397

42 LOS ANGELES 286.4 506.0 294.7 104.0 293.0 90.8 4007147

43 LYNWOOD 226.3 443.4 463.3 217.0 279.1 92.4 71453

44 MALIBU 78.1 43.4 0.0 78.9 80.7 80.8 12918

45 MANHATTAN BEACH 44.7 113.8 40.3 139.4 122.3 107.7 35843

46 MAYWOOD 144.5 184.4 275.1 131.5 187.4 48.1 27671

47 MONROVIA ... ... ... ... ... ... 37214

48 MONTEBELLO 65.6 114.8 63.7 128.7 251.0 71.6 63473

49 MONTEREY PARK 51.2 174.1 56.3 82.1 183.8 57.2 61210

50 NORWALK 194.7 280.4 166.9 108.8 249.7 60.0 106278

51 PALMDALE 324.0 241.1 107.4 256.1 182.8 117.6 158094

52 PALOS VERDES ESTATES 13.0 6.8 0.0 40.0 18.2 25.7 13611

53 PARAMOUNT 213.5 300.4 338.3 150.2 279.2 78.4 55041

54 PASADENA 202.3 419.2 229.9 197.1 223.1 129.6 142891

55 PICO RIVERA 258.5 197.5 132.4 76.5 210.0 55.3 63746

56 POMONA 243.0 532.5 428.9 406.0 288.2 143.3 153066

57 RANCHO PALOS VERDES 40.3 30.5 66.9 83.8 46.5 31.9 42563

58 REDONDO BEACH 71.8 107.7 29.0 120.7 138.5 89.4 68051

59 ROLLING HILLS ESTATES 63.0 35.4 0.0 118.9 37.4 55.5 8259

60 ROSEMEAD 212.4 222.8 87.7 173.5 207.3 74.0 54615

61 SAN DIMAS 84.3 64.9 0.0 60.4 61.2 52.4 34499

62 SAN FERNANDO 81.8 183.5 283.3 145.1 280.4 59.4 24899

63 SAN GABRIEL 159.8 186.4 34.5 127.4 105.6 65.1 40531

64 SAN MARINO 26.9 43.9 0.0 131.0 27.1 44.4 13402

65 SANTA CLARITA 36.1 52.7 37.7 40.7 59.9 37.8 216350

66 SANTA MONICA 120.2 179.3 81.0 77.4 68.2 130.9 92935

67 SANTE FE SPRINGS 215.6 312.7 324.4 253.9 505.1 191.9 18339

68 SIERRA MADRE 41.5 14.0 0.0 50.2 15.1 26.4 11080

69 SIGNAL HILL 128.8 246.3 117.5 195.0 350.3 160.8 11757

70 SOUTH EL MONTE 286.6 247.5 305.1 183.9 294.6 93.2 21012

71 SOUTH GATE 148.7 311.8 199.0 96.3 402.8 68.0 95717

72 SOUTH PASADENA 13.7 59.0 26.2 75.9 71.9 57.6 25961

73 TEMPLE CITY 94.1 94.2 58.6 110.2 84.9 44.4 36500

74 TORRANCE 49.4 139.2 24.2 80.8 160.6 77.7 147482

75 WALNUT 59.3 39.5 31.9 99.9 80.9 37.7 30189

76 WEST COVINA 65.7 137.1 25.5 71.7 194.6 86.9 108128

77 WEST HOLLYWOOD 115.6 307.6 55.0 82.5 88.6 150.9 37093


79 WHITTIER 121.0 172.8 149.7 97.6 179.1 93.2 87141


81 WHITTIER 47.7 118.7 70.9 150.9 120.7 96.2 87860

38

39

40

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Los Angeles County - last 10 years

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North Los Angeles County

LAWNDALE

PARAMOUNT

SAN MARINO

SANTE FE SPRINGS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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crim

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te

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Northwest San Gabriel Valley

CALABASAS

GLENDORA

LA HABRA HEIGHTS

POMONA

SANTA MONICA

TORRANCE

SOUTH EL MONTE

41

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

sted

vio

lent

crim

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teAdjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North central San

Gabriel Valley

ALHAMBRA

ARCADIA

MONTEREY PARK

PALMDALE

SAN FERNANDO

SANTA CLARITA

WALNUT

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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vio

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crim

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te

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central San Gabriel Valley

BALDWIN PARK

BELL

EL MONTE

EL SEGUNDO

HAWAIIAN GARDENS

42

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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vio

lent

crim

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teAdjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East Los Angeles

County

CUDAHY

COMMERCE

LAKEWOOD

REDONDO BEACH

SAN GABRIEL

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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crim

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te

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South San Gabriel Valley

DOWNEY

LA MIRADA

LA VERNE

WEST HOLLYWOOD

WESTLAKE VILLAGE

43

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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vio

lent

cri

me

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Los Angeles County

BELL GARDENS

BELLFLOWER

CULVER CITY

INGLEWOOD

MONTEBELLO

TEMPLE CITY

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Los Angeles County

COMPTON

DUARTE

MANHATTAN BEACH

NORWALK

PICO RIVERA

44

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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d vi

olen

t cr

ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central east Los Angeles County

LA PUENTE

PALOS VERDES ESTATES

RANCHO PALOS VERDES

SIERRA MADRE

SOUTH PASADENA

WHITTIER

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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d vi

olen

t cr

ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South central Los Angeles County

CERRITOS

COVINA

LYNWOOD

MALIBU

SOUTH GATE

45

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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olen

t cr

ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East central Los Angeles County

ARTESIA

BEVERLY HILLS

CLAREMONT

HAWTHORNE

LANCASTER

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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d vi

olen

t cr

ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Palos Verdes

PASADENA

ROLLING HILLS ESTATES

SAN DIMAS

46

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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t cr

ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Bay

GARDENA

HUNTINGTON PARK

LOS ANGELES

MONROVIA

ROSEMEAD

WEST COVINA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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olen

t cr

ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Los Angeles

GLENDALE

HERMOSA BEACH

LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE

LONG BEACH

47

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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d vi

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t cr

ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Westside Los Angeles

BURBANK

DIAMOND BAR

SIGNAL HILL

WHITTIER

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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me

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Western Los Angeles County

AGOURA HILLS

CARSON

MAYWOOD

WESTLAKE VILLAGE

48

Orange County This section shows the crime rate trends for Orange County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2017) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2015-17) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.

These cities are clustered geographically into city clusters, and the map shows the clustering of cities for these figures. For each Figure, the scale is typically from 0 to 400. Thus, the bottom value is a city with no violent crime, whereas 400 indicates a city with a violent crime rate 300% higher than the regional average (400 -100 = 300). For a few of the Figures, we had to extend the scale if certain cities had particularly high violent crime rates.

49

Standardized crime rates for cities in Orange County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 ALISO VIEJO 28.8 17.8 0.0 30.3 28.9 32.6 51984

2 ANAHEIM 85.9 156.8 65.6 97.2 200.1 102.4 353400

3 BREA 70.8 104.7 107.8 106.5 106.0 152.7 43000

4 BUENA PARK 104.2 132.7 27.7 91.0 218.2 143.3 83552

5 COSTA MESA 70.7 130.5 20.5 139.2 209.2 157.8 113267

6 CYPRESS 41.0 49.4 0.0 73.6 82.7 57.1 49064

7 DANA POINT 49.4 74.4 0.0 63.3 41.4 66.2 34123

8 FOUNTAIN VALLEY 30.6 57.0 0.0 106.7 115.7 119.7 56704

9 FULLERTON 43.3 79.9 16.4 52.6 124.2 130.8 141637

10 GARDEN GROVE 94.7 144.8 66.0 121.7 170.6 92.0 175466

11 HUNTINGTON BEACH 66.9 54.2 22.9 77.6 86.8 91.9 202244

12 IRVINE 11.2 23.0 16.8 57.7 32.0 57.7 276115

13 LA HABRA 61.3 85.8 37.4 81.0 136.3 79.5 61878

14 LA PALMA 35.5 51.1 0.0 225.2 95.1 68.0 15811

15 LAGUNA BEACH 153.0 69.5 0.0 135.6 129.3 89.8 23261

16 LAGUNA HILLS 29.5 65.5 73.1 93.8 70.4 53.7 31715

17 LAGUNA NIGUEL 24.9 19.3 35.3 36.8 34.7 36.9 65700

18 LAKE FOREST 50.0 32.9 0.0 50.1 47.1 33.9 84224

19 LOS ALAMITOS 4.0 98.9 0.0 159.1 93.7 50.9 11671

20 MISSION VIEJO 29.5 31.0 23.9 41.5 36.7 42.8 96928

21 NEWPORT BEACH 38.8 27.9 0.0 105.6 69.2 106.1 86910

22 ORANGE 45.8 52.4 65.7 88.1 110.1 70.3 141130

23 PLACENTIA 55.4 55.0 44.2 90.7 99.1 60.8 52437

24 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA 21.0 14.1 0.0 23.3 16.7 30.5 49144

25 SAN CLEMENTE 32.1 65.1 0.0 67.1 45.2 49.5 65596

26 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 69.2 50.6 0.0 71.7 39.9 48.5 36532

27 SANTA ANA 115.2 208.1 144.9 70.4 268.8 69.3 335699

28 SEAL BEACH 45.9 89.6 0.0 95.5 89.3 116.2 24495

29 STANTON 105.1 110.2 59.8 85.3 158.7 56.1 38767

30 TUSTIN 40.9 66.8 85.6 90.1 99.3 103.4 81246

31 VILLA PARK 15.8 0.0 0.0 150.0 30.7 33.4 5933

32 WESTMINSTER 62.2 165.9 100.9 122.6 196.0 122.4 91863

33 YORBA LINDA 21.1 8.4 0.0 68.3 31.1 39.6 68889

50

Standardized crime rates for cities in Orange County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 ALISO VIEJO 25.9 14.4 0.0 15.6 20.1 23.5 51984

2 ANAHEIM 73.0 98.6 51.1 94.9 130.3 84.5 353400

3 BREA 97.6 72.5 72.8 96.4 99.1 118.7 43000

4 BUENA PARK 97.5 174.8 63.8 96.9 272.9 98.9 83552

5 COSTA MESA 37.9 65.9 44.8 185.4 107.0 126.5 113267

6 CYPRESS 38.2 49.0 0.0 54.3 64.9 52.4 49064

7 DANA POINT 91.3 77.5 31.3 77.3 64.8 75.7 34123

8 FOUNTAIN VALLEY 43.0 96.2 61.0 74.0 141.4 106.4 56704

9 FULLERTON 50.5 90.4 85.6 74.1 161.9 117.4 141637

10 GARDEN GROVE 103.0 167.7 93.2 116.4 173.1 91.8 175466

11 HUNTINGTON BEACH 63.0 68.2 34.6 228.0 122.1 146.4 202244

12 IRVINE 19.7 27.6 21.1 113.9 41.3 77.9 276115

13 LA HABRA 48.1 85.8 26.2 80.5 98.0 78.6 61878

14 LA PALMA 58.9 67.4 0.0 152.8 81.8 80.2 15811

15 LAGUNA BEACH 108.4 35.9 29.2 74.2 51.3 68.4 23261

16 LAGUNA HILLS 26.5 53.1 64.4 48.2 48.8 38.9 31715

17 LAGUNA NIGUEL 29.9 16.9 32.0 33.4 26.1 30.8 65700

18 LAKE FOREST 40.9 26.6 0.0 23.7 33.9 29.6 84224

19 LOS ALAMITOS 27.8 80.5 58.3 76.3 70.0 56.4 11671

20 MISSION VIEJO 40.0 35.9 13.9 43.7 40.2 45.7 96928

21 NEWPORT BEACH 69.9 39.9 10.8 164.7 99.5 134.5 86910

22 ORANGE 66.9 88.0 43.5 93.0 149.0 96.7 141130

23 PLACENTIA 78.9 40.2 57.0 67.9 64.8 59.9 52437

24 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA 18.8 11.4 0.0 12.0 11.6 22.1 49144

25 SAN CLEMENTE 41.9 72.5 24.9 95.1 84.4 54.9 65596

26 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 45.0 40.8 0.0 40.3 31.7 38.1 36532

27 SANTA ANA 114.3 196.4 110.3 43.2 235.5 60.0 335699

28 SEAL BEACH 30.9 65.3 26.1 65.5 78.8 73.8 24495

29 STANTON 70.5 136.9 17.5 94.5 134.3 106.6 38767

30 TUSTIN ... ... ... ... ... ... 81246

31 VILLA PARK ... ... ... ... ... ... 5933

32 WESTMINSTER 70.7 173.0 76.0 163.3 224.7 124.7 91863

33 YORBA LINDA 27.7 15.8 10.9 37.3 36.2 38.5 68889

51

52

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Orange County - last 10 years

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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te

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North Orange County

FULLERTON

BREA

LA HABRA

YORBA LINDA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Central Orange County

ANAHEIM

LA PALMA

BUENA PARK

ORANGE

CYPRESS

VILLA PARK

53

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Orange County

SANTA ANA

GARDEN GROVE

WESTMINSTER

TUSTIN

LOS ALAMITOS

STANTON

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adju

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te

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North beaches Orange County

SEAL BEACH

HUNTINGTON BEACH

FOUNTAIN VALLEY

NEWPORT BEACH

COSTA MESA

54

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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ime

rate

Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Orange County

IRVINE

LAGUNA HILLS

LAKE FOREST

MISSION VIEJO

RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA

ALISO VIEJO

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Adj

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South Orange County beaches

SAN CLEMENTE

SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO

DANA POINT

LAGUNA BEACH

LAGUNA NIGUEL

55

Riverside County This section shows the crime rate trends for Riverside County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2017) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2015-17) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.


56

Standardized crime rates for cities in Riverside County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 BANNING 175.3 62.8 222.4 206.7 230.4 46.2 31247

2 BEAUMONT 143.9 46.8 49.4 105.8 112.8 67.8 46856

3 BLYTHE 79.0 94.4 0.0 343.0 114.1 142.3 19572

4 CALIMESA 26.8 79.3 265.2 122.3 161.7 113.4 8737

5 CANYON LAKE 66.7 0.0 0.0 49.8 113.7 32.8 11227

6 CATHEDRAL CITY 61.9 103.8 85.0 82.1 211.5 35.3 54506

7 COACHELLA 86.2 103.7 0.0 101.4 183.7 96.1 45646

8 CORONA 21.9 73.0 13.7 84.3 150.6 72.8 169164

9 DESERT HOT SPRINGS 344.0 225.1 564.8 302.0 403.1 37.2 28717

10 EASTVALE 22.5 44.4 0.0 86.0 124.1 85.0 62422

11 HEMET 162.2 180.3 108.8 209.9 284.7 124.1 85166

12 INDIAN WELLS 8.7 0.0 0.0 239.8 42.1 107.8 5408

13 LA QUINTA 30.4 89.0 0.0 102.9 72.4 131.2 41528

14 LAKE ELSINORE 75.8 99.5 35.0 115.0 233.6 129.0 66136

15 MENIFEE 35.7 54.9 76.9 91.7 137.6 86.0 90403

16 MORENO VALLEY 92.8 195.9 100.5 140.8 254.4 110.5 207418

17 MURRIETA 13.3 33.7 20.5 57.2 74.6 57.2 113016

18 NORCO 80.8 73.6 86.9 118.3 157.3 100.2 26654

19 PALM DESERT 51.4 65.5 0.0 204.0 100.0 164.5 52845

20 PALM SPRINGS 146.7 225.2 240.4 230.1 236.4 150.0 48193

21 PERRIS 72.4 98.2 59.7 88.5 295.3 80.5 77626

22 RANCHO MIRAGE 38.3 81.8 0.0 167.7 99.4 126.8 18347

23 RIVERSIDE 135.2 191.5 84.8 129.7 240.4 114.4 328023

24 SAN JACINTO 52.8 132.5 145.0 182.0 244.4 118.7 47932

25 TEMECULA 29.7 38.1 20.1 77.9 98.9 98.8 115220

57

Standardized crime rates for cities in Riverside County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 BANNING ... ... ... ... ... ... 31247

2 BEAUMONT 290.7 109.3 76.0 169.9 136.6 120.3 46856

3 BLYTHE 82.7 48.9 31.9 152.0 62.7 115.4 19572

4 CALIMESA 24.1 64.2 233.6 62.8 112.1 82.0 8737

5 CANYON LAKE 76.4 9.4 0.0 42.4 74.3 37.4 11227

6 CATHEDRAL CITY 189.0 115.5 127.4 166.2 264.1 77.9 54506

7 COACHELLA 151.3 75.2 0.0 151.8 97.8 140.6 45646

8 CORONA 114.9 118.4 72.4 115.7 227.8 92.4 169164

9 DESERT HOT SPRINGS 292.7 142.3 299.3 202.8 153.9 66.2 28717

10 EASTVALE 45.9 47.1 61.0 141.9 71.0 74.9 62422

11 HEMET 137.7 156.3 93.6 147.9 185.2 102.7 85166

12 INDIAN WELLS 16.1 12.1 0.0 122.3 30.2 84.3 5408

13 LA QUINTA 70.9 67.2 27.2 104.4 52.1 89.9 41528

14 LAKE ELSINORE 261.1 202.3 302.0 217.6 353.0 144.8 66136

15 MENIFEE 32.1 44.5 67.7 47.1 95.4 62.2 90403

16 MORENO VALLEY ... ... ... ... ... ... 207418

17 MURRIETA 27.2 36.1 22.6 57.3 82.3 49.6 113016

18 NORCO 56.5 47.1 113.7 72.4 98.3 68.0 26654

19 PALM DESERT 46.1 53.1 0.0 104.9 69.4 119.0 52845

20 PALM SPRINGS 257.0 251.2 226.1 369.4 316.5 193.5 48193

21 PERRIS 221.6 267.0 1351.2 279.8 209.2 164.5 77626

22 RANCHO MIRAGE 57.5 57.4 0.0 181.2 125.9 135.2 18347

23 RIVERSIDE 248.1 256.8 129.6 168.2 252.9 121.1 328023

24 SAN JACINTO 131.3 96.5 341.6 194.0 121.8 94.4 47932

25 TEMECULA 26.6 30.8 17.7 40.0 68.6 71.5 115220

58

59

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Riverside County - last 10 years

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North-western Riverside County

CATHEDRAL CITY

DESERT HOT SPRINGS

MORENO VALLEY

NORCO

PERRIS

RIVERSIDE

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-western Riverside County

BANNING

BEAUMONT

CANYON LAKE

INDIAN WELLS

MURRIETA

SAN JACINTO

TEMECULA

60

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West-central Riverside County

COACHELLA

EASTVALE

PALM DESERT

PALM SPRINGS

RANCHO MIRAGE

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East-central Riverside County

BLYTHE

CORONA

LA QUINTA

LAKE ELSINORE

MENIFEE

61

San Bernardino County This section shows the crime rate trends for San Bernardino County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2017) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2015-17) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.


62

Standardized crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 ADELANTO 222.4 164.5 137.5 143.4 132.6 48.7 33693

2 APPLE VALLEY 92.9 99.5 126.8 104.0 174.6 76.3 73105

3 BARSTOW 362.5 466.1 192.8 336.6 352.8 114.0 24028

4 BIG BEAR LAKE ... ... ... ... ... ... .

5 CHINO 66.5 112.3 77.7 126.0 149.8 88.9 89420

6 CHINO HILLS 23.0 27.6 0.0 103.4 59.1 66.6 79480

7 COLTON 101.9 240.8 168.1 121.8 286.9 85.0 55127

8 FONTANA 96.6 112.3 98.5 67.6 189.6 61.2 211782

9 GRAND TERRACE 55.8 82.6 0.0 167.7 112.3 76.0 12584

10 HESPERIA 120.7 118.8 49.1 121.9 210.2 73.8 94292

11 HIGHLAND 80.5 154.7 167.8 115.1 184.0 62.4 55229

12 LOMA LINDA 40.5 57.1 0.0 117.4 182.2 93.5 24265

13 MONTCLAIR 141.7 249.6 58.9 183.7 440.5 125.2 39318

14 NEEDLES 271.0 92.2 0.0 289.3 154.6 117.5 5011

15 ONTARIO 85.5 145.4 106.1 104.8 237.6 92.1 174724

16 RANCHO CUCAMONGA 43.1 76.4 13.0 116.1 94.1 95.2 178308

17 REDLANDS 71.8 111.1 32.3 151.1 186.2 150.7 71707

18 RIALTO 98.6 166.5 44.6 116.2 268.7 32.4 103980

19 SAN BERNARDINO 374.2 466.0 362.6 250.0 477.6 103.9 217259

20 TWENTYNINE PALMS 53.6 26.4 176.8 137.8 78.2 30.0 26210

21 UPLAND 60.1 151.1 210.2 193.2 171.9 87.6 77154

22 VICTORVILLE 200.2 250.0 263.1 171.2 239.9 84.4 123284

23 YUCAIPA 34.1 49.5 0.0 95.8 114.8 62.3 53614

24 YUCCA VALLEY 81.6 95.3 0.0 172.6 108.7 63.3 21806

63

Standardized crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 ADELANTO 199.6 133.2 121.1 73.7 91.9 35.2 33693

2 APPLE VALLEY 103.7 72.2 120.6 89.2 159.2 67.4 73105

3 BARSTOW 230.7 238.7 172.6 151.5 240.6 71.6 24028

4 BIG BEAR LAKE ... ... ... ... ... ... .

5 CHINO 127.7 109.9 163.3 134.4 136.3 88.9 89420

6 CHINO HILLS 20.6 22.4 0.0 53.1 40.9 48.2 79480

7 COLTON 77.4 167.9 217.1 171.2 146.7 98.3 55127

8 FONTANA 86.1 162.3 89.4 228.9 180.1 139.3 211782

9 GRAND TERRACE 59.3 74.1 0.0 143.5 106.3 63.7 12584

10 HESPERIA 98.4 110.3 78.2 154.6 252.8 90.2 94292

11 HIGHLAND 135.6 204.8 220.1 135.7 228.2 64.2 55229

12 LOMA LINDA 113.7 112.2 74.7 171.4 227.5 81.7 24265

13 MONTCLAIR 129.0 242.8 291.4 173.8 318.2 157.5 39318

14 NEEDLES 332.2 53.2 0.0 246.5 160.1 175.0 5011

15 ONTARIO 149.7 174.7 154.6 91.9 259.4 100.4 174724

16 RANCHO CUCAMONGA 93.0 77.4 68.3 109.4 126.8 78.9 178308

17 REDLANDS 110.7 110.6 56.8 136.6 162.6 112.1 71707

18 RIALTO 192.2 213.4 142.2 128.1 247.0 41.9 103980

19 SAN BERNARDINO 292.9 488.1 463.5 364.3 322.1 216.9 217259

20 TWENTYNINE PALMS 181.8 94.6 161.1 192.1 119.9 67.8 26210

21 UPLAND 72.1 130.3 126.9 88.8 176.4 96.9 77154

22 VICTORVILLE 288.2 221.5 200.1 188.3 199.4 120.0 123284

23 YUCAIPA 30.6 40.1 0.0 49.2 79.6 45.1 53614

24 YUCCA VALLEY 97.5 67.3 56.9 99.0 87.0 64.2 21806

64

65

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in San Bernardino County - last 10 years

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-west San Bernardino County

CHINO

CHINO HILLS

MONTCLAIR

ONTARIO

RANCHO CUCAMONGA

UPLAND

0

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450

500

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-central San Bernardino County

COLTON

FONTANA

HIGHLAND

RIALTO

SAN BERNARDINO

66

0

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400

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North San Bernardino County

ADELANTO

APPLE VALLEY

BARSTOW

HESPERIA

NEEDLES

VICTORVILLE

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Eastern San Bernardino County

BIG BEAR LAKE

GRAND T ERRACE

LOMA LINDA

REDLANDS

TWENTYNINE PALMS

YUCAIPA

YUCCA VALLEY

67

San Diego County This section shows the crime rate trends for San Diego County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2017) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2015-17) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.


68

Standardized crime rates for cities in San Diego County in 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 CARLSBAD 69.4 46.0 0.0 95.2 54.9 80.4 115344

2 CHULA VISTA 76.0 129.5 17.1 60.0 127.9 51.8 271109

3 CORONADO 35.6 22.0 0.0 26.1 48.5 66.9 26294

4 DEL MAR 117.1 0.0 0.0 219.7 134.7 122.2 4398

5 EL CAJON 97.3 180.2 22.2 100.8 180.6 81.4 104447

6 ENCINITAS 51.4 41.7 0.0 83.0 47.2 57.8 63722

7 ESCONDIDO 106.6 131.4 45.5 71.0 118.7 65.9 152845

8 IMPERIAL BEACH 157.8 142.3 84.0 63.6 138.7 43.3 27593

9 LA MESA 74.4 95.5 115.0 74.5 145.6 77.1 60425

10 LEMON GROVE 191.7 234.2 85.5 87.2 173.1 88.1 27113

11 NATIONAL CITY 122.4 204.4 112.9 54.5 265.0 61.3 61574

12 OCEANSIDE 119.4 107.7 117.9 85.1 127.8 96.0 176815

13 POWAY 34.3 29.8 0.0 68.6 46.1 43.6 50438

14 SAN DIEGO 105.8 114.3 56.9 68.2 164.3 68.7 1424116

15 SAN MARCOS 55.8 64.1 0.0 52.8 70.3 45.6 97290

16 SANTEE 80.8 84.8 0.0 47.3 71.6 64.3 58563

17 SOLANA BEACH 20.7 34.1 0.0 127.7 63.9 59.3 13542

69

Standardized crime rates for cities in San Diego County, average from 2015-2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 CARLSBAD 50.1 37.8 17.1 64.0 48.4 52.3 115344

2 CHULA VISTA 103.4 169.6 96.0 162.9 258.9 112.8 271109

3 CORONADO 52.6 36.2 25.1 55.3 129.4 74.9 26294

4 DEL MAR 81.3 10.7 0.0 141.4 89.9 89.9 4398

5 EL CAJON 108.8 131.5 75.8 205.8 149.4 127.2 104447

6 ENCINITAS 56.8 37.5 11.4 44.0 39.8 44.8 63722

7 ESCONDIDO 104.7 112.5 108.0 90.2 167.4 87.3 152845

8 IMPERIAL BEACH 197.6 143.3 120.2 137.6 159.1 73.7 27593

9 LA MESA 59.5 86.3 76.6 79.0 133.7 87.6 60425

10 LEMON GROVE 162.6 206.6 79.0 77.5 225.0 60.0 27113

11 NATIONAL CITY 138.6 217.8 110.5 58.0 305.5 57.4 61574

12 OCEANSIDE 149.2 130.5 67.3 65.5 128.2 79.9 176815

13 POWAY 30.8 24.1 0.0 35.2 31.9 31.6 50438

14 SAN DIEGO 103.7 235.4 139.9 215.0 215.2 135.9 1424116

15 SAN MARCOS 50.1 51.9 0.0 27.1 48.7 33.0 97290

16 SANTEE 72.5 68.7 0.0 24.3 49.6 46.5 58563

17 SOLANA BEACH 18.6 27.6 0.0 65.6 44.3 42.9 13542

70

71

Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in San Diego County - last 10 years

0

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: South-west San Diego County

CHULA VISTA

CORONADO

IMPERIAL BEACH

NATIONAL CITY

POWAY

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: Eastern San Diego County

EL CAJON

LA MESA

LEMON GROVE

OCEANSIDE

SAN MARCOS

72

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: North-west San Diego County

CARLSBAD

DEL MAR

ENCINITAS

ESCONDIDO

SAN DIEGO

SANTEE

SOLANA BEACH

73

Ventura County This section shows the crime rate trends for Ventura County cities. The first table shows the adjusted crime rate in the most recent year (2017) for all cities. The second table shows the average adjusted crime rate over the three most recent years (2015-17) for all cities. After the two tables, we then display Figures showing the 10 year trajectory of the violent crime rate for the cities in the county.


74

Standardized crime rates for cities in Ventura County, 2017 City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 CAMARILLO 38.7 71.6 34.2 68.4 52.5 69.0 67714

2 FILLMORE 56.6 36.7 0.0 38.9 34.8 29.9 15708

3 MOORPARK 39.4 28.2 0.0 38.0 24.8 39.5 36813

4 OJAI 12.3 0.0 0.0 36.8 6.0 24.6 7603

5 OXNARD 89.0 236.9 165.9 95.5 150.7 103.9 209513

6 PORT HUENEME 39.8 72.2 207.1 73.9 89.6 72.6 22374

7 SANTA PAULA 116.7 68.1 151.9 70.0 62.8 57.2 30496

8 SIMI VALLEY 41.8 35.6 0.0 66.5 49.7 60.6 126635

9 THOUSAND OAKS 33.0 31.3 35.9 52.9 39.8 57.1 129240

10 VENTURA 120.9 116.5 42.1 135.2 139.2 139.8 110006

Standardized crime rates for cities in Ventura County, average from 2015-2017

City Assault Robbery Homicide Burglary Auto Theft Larceny Pop

1 CAMARILLO 33.5 42.0 10.0 41.1 32.5 54.4 67714

2 FILLMORE 100.7 39.1 62.9 96.4 45.4 51.1 15708

3 MOORPARK 34.1 20.2 31.9 20.4 21.4 26.8 36813

4 OJAI 61.0 31.9 0.0 76.0 30.9 65.1 7603

5 OXNARD 80.6 140.6 84.3 172.9 154.2 114.4 209513

6 PORT HUENEME 46.1 55.2 166.0 58.3 68.3 56.3 22374

7 SANTA PAULA 162.6 90.6 147.5 124.6 54.5 69.0 30496

8 SIMI VALLEY 54.0 39.9 6.8 66.4 71.2 54.4 126635

9 THOUSAND OAKS 37.7 56.8 10.5 110.4 69.3 68.8 129240

10 VENTURA 76.6 86.3 81.1 103.6 87.7 103.8 110006

75

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Adjusted violent crime rates for cities in Ventura County - last 10 years

0

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: West Ventura County

OXNARD

PORT HUENEME

OJAI

SANTA PAULA

VENTURA

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Adjusted violent crime rates over the last 10 years: East Ventura County

CAMARILLO

FILLMORE

MOORPARK

SIMI VALLEY

THOUSAND OAKS

77

NOTES

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Documents

2019 - (ILSSC) · Hwawon Seo Rylan Simpson Rebecca Tublitz Seth Williams John R. Hipp Charis E. Kubrin . iii The Irvine Laboratory for the Study of Space and Crime (ILSSC) in the