2018 RESIDENTIAL SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK

Stefan Linder

Sunrun

1/18/2018

San Diego, CA

TOP 3 TRENDS IN RESIDENTIAL SOLAR

1) 2018 is poised to be a ‘rebound’ year after Y/Y growth declines in 2017

2) Battery storage takes off outside of Hawaii

3) Emerging markets take off

AGENDA

• Sizing the market

• Market shares

• Pricing trends

RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PENETRATION IN KEY MARKETS

Source: GTM Research, US Census

NATIONAL FORECAST (MW)

= ~6GW, 1M systems

Source: GTM Research

NATIONAL FORECAST (MW)

= ~6GW, 1M systems

Source: GTM Research

NATIONAL FORECAST (MW)

= ~6GW, 1M systems

Source: GTM Research

Much of forecasted growth is coming from emerging markets

= ~6GW, 1M systems

Source: GTM Research

KEY STATE RESIDENTIAL FORECAST (MW)

Source: GTM Research

AGENDA

• Sizing the market

• Market shares

• Pricing trends

MARKET SHARE BY INSTALLER% OF MW INSTALLED

Source: GTM Research, public disclosureNote: Sunrun excluded prior to Q1 ‘15

THIRD-PARTY OWNED (TPO) MARKET SHARE, Q3 ‘15 – Q3 ‘17

Source: GTM Research

AGENDA

• Sizing the market

• Market shares

• Pricing trends

REPORTED CAPACITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE SYSTEM PRICES ($/W)

Source: EnergySage

AVERAGE SYSTEM COST, Q3 2015-Q3 2017 ($/W)

Source: GTM Research

THANK YOU!

QUESTIONS?