transportation.ky.gov · 2017-06-05 · Crittenden Livingston ... FORECAST OF EQUIVALENT SINGLE AXLE LOAD ACCUMULATIONS (20-year) Rule Shack Road Graves 053-005 053-005 9 - Rural

Criteria: Collision Date is greater than 1/1/2000 And County Name is one of: FULTON And Roadway Name contains 1909 And Milepoint is between 0.512 and 0.952

Collision w/Injury 1

Collision w/Fatality 0

Collision w/Prop Damage

1

Total Mapped 2

Total NOT Mapped 0

Scale: 1 inch = 434.8 Feet, 0.08 Miles

Page 1 of 1Print Map

9/28/2012https://kycrash.state.ky.us/KYCrash/Mapping/PrintMap.aspx?ToPrint=1

Jessica.Herring

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Jessica.Herring

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Item # 1-1144.00 KY 1909 (038B0074N)

0

Traffic Forecast Report

Fulton County Bridge Replacement on KY 1909 over Little Bayou

De Chien Creek Item No. 01-1144.00

Prepared for:

Prepared by: Jayalakshmi Balaji

Division of Planning Kentucky Transportation Cabinet

October 16, 2012

Executive Summary

Traffic Forecast Technical Report

Fulton County: Bridge Replacement on KY 1909 over Little Bayou De Chien Creek

Item No. 01-1144.00

KYTC Division of Planning Page 1

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ADT Average Daily Traffic Without any adjustment

DHV Design Hour Volume 30th highest hour of a year

ESAL Equivalent Single Axle Load A measure of traffic’s impact on roadway

%T Truck Percentage The percentage of trucks to total volume

FC Functional Class Refers to a road’s importance

GR Growth Rate A value normally compounded annually

PHF Peak Hour Factor Considers a 15 minute spike in an hourly count

K-Factor K-30th hour Factor DHV divided by ADT (DHV/ADT)

D-Factor Directional Factor Percentage of dominant flow to total

MP Mile Point Miles increase easterly and northerly

ATR Automatic Traffic Recorder A permanent & continuous recording station

KYSTM Kentucky Statewide Model A computerized representation of KY roads



Item No. 01-1144.00




Item No. 01-1144.00




Item No. 01-1144.00




Item No. 01-1144.00


Traffic Forecast Report

Livingston County Bridge Replacement KY 866 Over Gum Creek

Item No. 1-1145.00

Prepared for:

Prepared by: Jonathan Reynolds, PE

Division of Planning Kentucky Transportation Cabinet

January 10, 2013

Executive Summary

Traffic Forecast Technical Report Livingston County: Bridge Replacement KY 866 Over Gum Creek Item No. 1-1145.00


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Figure 1: Vicinity Map ................................................................................................................... Page #2

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ Page #3

Figure 2: Population Summary ...................................................................................................... Page #5

Figure 3: Summary Map ................................................................................................................. Page #6

20 Year ESAL Spreadsheets ......................................................................................................... Page #7

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ADT Average Daily Traffic Without any adjustment DHV Design Hour Volume 30th highest hour of a year ESAL Equivalent Single Axle Load A measure of traffic’s impact on roadway %T Truck Percentage The percentage of trucks to total volume FC Functional Class Refers to a road’s importance GR Growth Rate A value normally compounded annually PHF Peak Hour Factor Considers a 15 minute spike in an hourly count K-Factor K-30th hour Factor DHV divided by ADT (DHV/ADT) D-Factor Directional Factor Percentage of dominant flow to total MP Mile Point Miles increase easterly and northerly ATR Automatic Traffic Recorder A permanent & continuous recording station KYSTM Kentucky Statewide Model A computerized representation of KY roads



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Item #1-1145.00

Vicinity Map

Legend

Project Location

Bridge on KY 866over Gum CreekBN 070B00050N

Station 0702512010 ADT = 600Exp GR = 1.0%



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FORECAST SUMMARY The project calls for replacing the bridge over Gum Creek on KY 866 in Livingston County. The purpose of this report is to analyze current and future traffic utilizing the KY 866 bridge between MP 0.022 and MP 0.062. District 1 requested traffic forecasts for the project road segment.

FORECAST TYPE The following types of forecasts were developed:

2012 and 2037 ADT and DHV values 2012 and 2037 Average Daily and Design Hourly Truck Percent Forecasts 20-year ESALs

CURRENT-YEAR VOLUMES The 2012 ADT volume is based on the 2010 48-hour count data collected at traffic station 070251 (see page 2). The traffic count data for this station was collected at MP 1.9 on KY 866. All figures are subject to rounding.

DESIGN-YEAR/GROWTH FACTORS While the Kentucky State Data Center predicts a population decline in Livingston County between now and 2035 (see page 5), exponential growth analyses performed on historical data from station 070251 reveal traffic volumes on this section of KY 866 have been growing 1.0% annually. Therefore, a 1.0% growth rate was used for the purposes of this forecast.

DESIGN HOUR FACTORS DHVs were estimated by analyzing the most recent hourly volume data collected at station 070251. The peak AM and PM volumes were derived by dividing the highest hourly volumes from these counts by their daily totals. Functional class design hour factors based on the day and month of these counts were then applied. Finally, the calculated K-factors were used in combination with the ADT forecast to produce DHVs for 2011 and 2037.



TRUCK PERCENTAGE The truck percentage for this project is based on the functional class average for rural minor collector roads. A 10.4% truck percentage was used for the purpose of this forecast. Statewide research indicates a 2.0% annual growth rate for %T may be applied as a component of the overall traffic growth on rural minor collector roads.

ESALs Functional class averages from ATR data, traffic counts, and the 2037 ADT projections were used to estimate 20-year ESALs on the project road segment. The 2007 aggregated ESAL report, generated by the Kentucky Transportation Center in collaboration with the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, were used to grow the important ESAL calculation variables. For more information, please see the attached ESAL calculation sheets.

TURN MOVEMENTS Turn movements were not requested and therefore not included.





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qBridge Replacement onKY 866 over Gum Creek

Item #1-1145.00

Summary Map

Legend

Project Location

KY 8662012 ADT = 600 2037 ADT = 8002012 DHV = 70 2037 DHV = 100

2012 %T(ADT) = 10.4% 2037 ADT %T(ADT) = 13%2012 %T(DHV) = 6.9% 2037 %T(DHV) = 8.9%

20 Year ESALs = 400,000





ROUTE ID:

County Date 08/29/12

Forecaster Daniel Hulker

Road Name

MARS No. N/A

Functional Class Item No. 01-1147.00

Route No. CR 1384

Project Description Beg. MP 0.412

End MP 0.434

Scenario T.F. No. TF 12-077

Segment Description No. of Lanes 2

1 or 2 way 2

REFERENCES:

Previous Forecasts K- Factor Value 11.4%

K-Factor Source 0

Traffic Volume PHF 0.9

Milepoint

Truck Percent

Milepoint

ESAL Information

Growth Rate

TRAFFIC PARAMETERS:

Present Growth Construction Median Design

Year Rate Year Year Year

2012 2017 2027 2037

Volume (AADT) 200 2.50% 230 290 370

Percent Trucks (%T) 10.4% 1.0% 11% 12% 13%

Number of Trucks 20 3.5% 30 30 50

Percent Trucks Hauling Coal (%CT) 0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0%

Non-Coal Trucks:Axles/Truck (A/T) 3.100 0.70% 3.210 3.442 3.691

ESALs/Axle (ESAL/A) 0.254 1.60% 0.275 0.322 0.378

Coal Trucks:Axles/Truck (A/CT) 0 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000

ESALs/Axle (ESAL/CA) 0 0.00% 0.000 0.000 0.000

ESAL CALCULATIONS: SEE ATTACHED ESAL CALCULATION SHEET

Design ESALs in Critical Lane

160,000

General Comments:

Full Route Unique Identifier

024-CR-1384 -0001.0 (KY 1686)

None

1.0 (KY 1686)

FORECAST OF EQUIVALENT SINGLE AXLE LOAD ACCUMULATIONS (20-year)

Rule Shack Road

Graves

053-005

053-005

9 - Rural Local

Build

Same

Bridge Replacement on CR 1384 over IC

Railroad

2007 Aggregated ESALS

2.50%

Year

AD

TC

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%T

ruck %

Cars

Tru

cks

CT

%A

X/T

ES

AL/A

XA

X/C

TE

SA

L/C

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FE

SA

Ls

2017

226

89.1

%10.9

%202

25

0.0

0%

3.2

10.2

70

00.5

00

4,1

68

2018

232

89.0

%11.0

%206

26

0.0

0%

3.2

30.2

80

00.5

00

4,4

08

2019

238

88.8

%11.2

%211

27

0.0

0%

3.2

60.2

80

00.5

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4,6

63

2020

244

88.7

%11.3

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27

0.0

0%

3.2

80.2

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00.5

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4,9

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250

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269

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276

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2026

283

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2027

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2029

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2030

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2031

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2035

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Documents

transportation.ky.gov · 2017-06-05 · Crittenden Livingston ... FORECAST OF EQUIVALENT SINGLE AXLE LOAD ACCUMULATIONS (20-year) Rule Shack Road Graves 053-005 053-005 9 - Rural