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2016 Transportation Construction
Market Forecast
& Surface Transportation
Reauthorization Update
Dave Bauer & Alison Premo Black, PhDDecember 2, 2015
SURFACE TRANSPORTATION
REAUTHORIZATION UPDATE
Highway/Transit Bill Status
• Programs extended to December 4, 2015
• The FAST Act
�Finalized by the House and Senate December 1
�Five years, $286 billion
�House expected to act December 3, then will
move to the Senate
FAST Act Highlights
• Highway Investment
�FY 2016: $42.4 B
�FY 2017: $43.3 B
�FY 2018: $44.2 B
�FY 2019: $45.3 B
�FY 2020: $46.4 B
Highway Investment Impact
$46.4
$41.3
$40.3
$42.0
$37.0
$38.0
$39.0
$40.0
$41.0
$42.0
$43.0
$44.0
$45.0
$46.0
$47.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
of
do
lla
rs
Nominal Obligations Adjusted for Project Costs Adjusted for Inflation
Source: ARTBA analysis of FAST Act. Inflation forecast from CBO's August 2015 report "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025."
FAST Act Highlights
• Public Transportation Investment
�FY 2016: $11.8 B
�FY 2017: $12.0 B
�FY 2018: $12.2 B
�FY 2019: $12.4 B
�FY 2020: $12.6 B
Transit Investment Impact
$12.6
$10.7
$11.4
$10.0
$10.5
$11.0
$11.5
$12.0
$12.5
$13.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
of
do
lla
rs
FAST Act Nominal Transit Obligations Adjusted for Inflation
Source: ARTBA analysis of FAST Act. Inflation forecast from CBO's August 2015 report "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025."
FAST ACT Highlights
• National Freight Program
�$1.1 B in FY 2016 to $1.5 B in FY 2020
�All states benefit
• Nationally Significant Freight & Highway
Projects Program
�$800 M in FY 2016 to $1 B in FY 2020
�Grants awarded by U.S. DOT
FAST ACT Highlights
• Other Provisions
�TIFIA
�Accelerated Project Delivery
�HTF Transparency
�Hours of Service
FAST Act & HTF
• $70 B in New HTF Revenue
�One-time resources
�Variety of Contributors
�Return of HTF crisis
�Unless….
2016 TRANSPORTATION
CONSTRUCTION FORECAST
ARTBA’s Transportation Construction Forecast Model
• Series of econometric models forecasting the
market as measured by the U.S. Census
Bureau’s Value of Construction Put in Place
• The models predicts an overall spending level
for each mode based on a variety of
independent variables
Forecast of U.S. Transportation Construction
$200.5 $208.3 $214.0 $219.2 $224.0 $228.0
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model. Includes spending on highways, private driveways and commercial parking lots, bridges and tunnels, mass transit, railroads, ports & waterways, airport runways & terminals, plus state and local government expenditures on highway and bridge planning and design, right of way purchases and maintenance.
ARTBA 2016 Transportation Construction Forecast
Major Market 2015 estimate 2016 Forecast % Change
Highway & street pavements $55.95 $58.10 +4
Private driveways & parking lots $12.91 $13.25 +6
Bridges & tunnels $33.30 $34.60 +4
Airport terminals & runways $12.88 $14.28 +11
Subway & light rail $7.82 $7.56 -3
Railroads $13.49 $13.57 +1
Ports & Waterways $2.26 $2.30 +2
The ARTBA Price Index is used to calculate the real value
of construction spending
4%
2%
1%
2%
5%6%
5%
4%
7%
-3%
3%
5%
2%1% 1%
3%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Annual Percent Change in the ARTBA Price Index
Source: The ARTBA Price Index takes into account changes in material costs, inflation and industry wages.
Outlook for U.S. Airport Terminal & Runway Construction
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
(e
)
20
16
(f)
20
17
(f)
20
18
(f)
20
19
(f)
20
20
(f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Real Value of Airport Terminal & Runway Construction Work
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Forecast for U.S. Airport Construction
$5.8 $6.0 $6.2 $6.4 $6.7 $6.9
$5.0 $5.9 $6.6 $7.1 $7.6 $8.0$2.1
$2.4$2.9
$3.4$3.8
$4.2
$12.9$14.3
$15.6$16.9
$18.1$19.2
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Runways Terminals OtherSource: ARTBA Forecast Model
MA
RI
Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government airport runway contract awards
Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Dodge data for state and local government contract awards. Rolling 12 month totals for November 2014 to October 2015 and November 2013 to October 2014. Nominal values have been adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs.
ND
SD
WYID
MO
IA
WI
NE
KSCO
OKAR
MS AL
SCNM
TN
KYNC
OH
PA
NY
ME
UTNV
AZ
OR
WA
MT
TX
FL
VT
NH
CTNJ
DE
DC
AK
HI
MI
IN
WV
LA
CA
IL
GA
Airport contract
awards are up in the last
12 months
Airport contract
awards are up or down
within 5%
Airport contract
awards are down
MN
VA
MD
Outlook for U.S. Subway & Light Rail Construction
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
(e
)
20
16
(f)
20
17
(f)
20
18
(f)
20
19
(f)
20
20
(f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Real Value of Subway & Light Rail Transit Construction Work
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Forecast of U.S. Subway & Light Rail Transit Construction
$7.8 $7.6 $8.0$8.6 $9.1 $9.3
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Outlook for U.S. Railroad Construction
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
(e
)
20
16
(f)
20
17
(f)
20
18
(f)
20
19
(f)
20
20
(f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Real Value of Railroad Construction Work
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Forecast of U.S. Railroad Construction
$13.5 $13.6 $13.8 $14.0 $14.3 $14.6
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
MI
MA
RI
Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government rail & transit contract awards
Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Dodge data for state and local government contract awards. Rolling 12 month totals for November 2014 to October 2015 and November 2013 to October 2014. Nominal values have been adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs.
ND
SD
WYID
MO
IA
WI
NE
KSCO
OKAR
MS AL
SCNM
TN
KYNC
OH
PA
NY
ME
UTNV
AZ
OR
WA
MT
TX
FL
VT
NH
CTNJ
DE
DC
AK
HI
IN
WV
LA
CA
IL
GA
Rail & transit contract
awards are up in the last
12 months
R Rail & transit contract
awards are up or down
within 5%
Rail & transit contract
awards are down
MN
VA
MD
Outlook for U.S. Port & Waterway Construction
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
(e
)
20
16
(f)
20
17
(f)
20
18
(f)
20
19
(f)
20
20
(f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Real Value of Port & Waterway Construction Work
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Forecast of U.S. Ports & Waterway Construction
$2.26 $2.30 $2.33 $2.37 $2.40 $2.44
$0
$1
$1
$2
$2
$3
$3
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
MI
MA
RI
Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government port & waterway contract awards
Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Dodge data for state and local government contract awards. Rolling 12 month totals for November 2014 to October 2015 and November 2013 to October 2014. Nominal values have been adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs.
ND
SD
WYID
MO
IA
WI
NE
KSCO
OKAR
MS AL
SCNM
TN
KYNC
OH
PA
NY
ME
UTNV
AZ
OR
WA
MT
TX
FL
VT
NH
CTNJ
DE
DC
AK
HI
IN
WV
LA
CA
IL
GA
Port & waterway
contract awards are up in
the last 12 months
Port & waterway
contract awards are up or
down within 5%
Port & waterway
contract awards are down
MN
VA
MD
Major Factors for Highway & Bridge Outlook
• Five-year federal funding levels
• Recovery in state and local spending
• Focus on bridge work
• State and local funding initiatives
• Improved state and local government revenues
• Recovery in housing market
• Modest uptick in transportation bonding activity
Outlook for U.S. Highway & Street Pavement Construction
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
(e
)
20
16
(f)
20
17
(f)
20
18
(f)
20
19
(f)
20
20
(f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Real Value of Pavement & Related Construction Work
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Forecast for U.S. Highway & Pavement Construction
$55.9 $58.1 $59.0 $59.8 $60.6 $61.3
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
MI
MA
RI
Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government highway contract awards
Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Dodge data for state and local government contract awards. Rolling 12 month totals for November 2014 to October 2015 and November 2013 to October 2014. Nominal values have been adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs.
ND
SD
WYID
MO
IA
WI
NE
KSCO
OKAR
MS AL
SCNM
TN
KYNC
OH
PA
NY
ME
UTNV
AZ
OR
WA
MT
TX
FL
VT
NH
CTNJ
DE
DC
AK
HI
IN
WV
LA
CA
IL
GA
Pavement contract
awards are up in the last
12 months
Pavement contract
awards are up or down
within 5%
Pavement contract
awards are down
MN
VA
MD
Forecast for U.S. Private Driveways & Parking Lots
$12.5 $13.2$14.6 $15.2 $15.8 $16.3
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Outlook for U.S. Bridge & Tunnel Pavement Construction
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
(e
)
20
16
(f)
20
17
(f)
20
18
(f)
20
19
(f)
20
20
(f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Real Value of Bridge & Tunnel Construction Work
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Forecast for U.S. Bridge & Tunnel Construction
$33.3 $34.6 $35.1 $35.6 $36.1 $36.5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
MI
MA
RI
Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government bridge & tunnel contract awards
Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Dodge data for state and local government contract awards. Rolling 12 month totals for November 2014 to October 2015 and November 2013 to October 2014. Nominal values have been adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs.
ND
SD
WYID
MO
IA
WI
NE
KSCO
OKAR
MS AL
SCNM
TN
KYNC
OH
PA
NY
ME
UTNV
AZ
OR
WA
MT
TX
FL
VT
NH
CTNJ
DE
DC
AK
HI
IN
WV
LA
CA
IL
GA
Bridge & tunnel
contract awards are up in
the last 12 months
Bridge & tunnel
contract awards are up or
down within 5%
Bridge & tunnel
contract awards are down
MN
VA
MD
The bridge and tunnel market share has increased from 18% to 37% since TEA-21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(e)
Bridge and tunnel share of real highway & bridge
construction market
Source: ARTBA analysis of U.S. Census Bureau value of construction put in place for pavement, bridge and tunnel and other-highway related work
U.S. State & Local Government Highway & Bridge
Maintenance Forecast
$40.5$42.0 $42.6
$43.3 $43.9 $44.3
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
U.S. Highway & Bridge Planning & Design Forecast for
State & Local Governments
$14.3$14.8 $15.0
$15.2 $15.5 $15.6
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model. Includes work completed in-house by State DOTs and local governments, as well as work contracted to third parties.
U.S. Right of Way Forecast for State & Local Highway
& Bridge Programs
$7.5$7.8 $8.0
$8.1 $8.2 $8.3
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
5$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model. Includes work completed in-house by State DOTs and local governments, as well as work contracted to third parties.
Forecast for Private Highway & Bridge Construction
(largely related to residential developments)
$45.9 $47.7$52.5 $54.9 $56.9 $58.9
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Source: ARTBA Forecast Model
Public Private Partnerships (P3) are an important part of the market …
• Ten highway-related projects (over $9 billion) came to financial
close in 2015
• 36 active TIFIA projects approved as of Dec 1, 2015
– TIFIA loans totaling $14.6 billion for $52.3 billion in projects in 16 states
• P3s have averaged 2-5% of capital investment in highways and
11% of new capacity since 2008
• Between 1989 and 2011, 24 states and D.C. have used a P3
process to help finance and build:
– 96 transportation projects valued at $54.3 billion
– 65% of the projects occur in eight states
– 79 projects worth $31.5 billion were design-build
Sources: ARTBA’s “The Role of Private Investment in Meeting U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Needs”, Public Works Financing, U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration
Real state and local government contract awards – January to October
$37.4
$13.7
$33.6
$12.0
$36.9
$19.0
$36.1
$12.3
$40.2
$15.6
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Highways Bridges
Bil
lio
ns
20
14
$
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Data, adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
Bil
lio
ns
of
20
15
$
Average 2011-2013 2014 2015
The Real Value of State & Local Government Highway & Bridge
Contract Awards
Source: Dodge Data Analytics adjusted with ARTBA Price Index
Fleet Size Outlook for Earthmoving, Paving & Compaction
and Other Equipment
8% 13% 11%
87% 77% 82%
5% 10% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Earthmoving Paving & Compaction Other equipment
% o
f su
rve
y re
spo
nd
en
ts
Transportation Contractor Outlook for Fleet Equipment Size
Increase the size of their fleet Maintain current fleet Reduce fleet or undecided
Source: ARTBA Transportation Design and Construction Industry 2016 Market Conditions Survey
Source: ARTBA analysis of FHWA Highway Statistics data, total ten year average 2004-2013 from tables SF-1 and SF-2. The percent is the ratio of federal aid reimbursements to the state and total state capital outlays and is indicative of the importance of the federal aid program to state capital spending for highways and bridges. Does not include local capital spending. Federal highway reimbursements are primarily used for capital outlays, including construction, right of way and engineering, but are also used for debt service for GARVEE bonds.
* States that have issued GARVEE bonds before 2013.
89%*
35%
53%
60%*
68%*
87%*
72%
52%
56%*
72%*
83%*
69%*
71%
46%
50%
61%*
41%
65%
59%
69%
52%
39%
41%
60%
43%*
65%
66%* 67%*
60%*
55%
45%
66%
47%*
66%*
36%
53%
*
61%*
64%*
40%
HI
77%
83%
VT
80%
CT
70%
RI
97%*
DE
42%*
NJ
31%*
MD
45%*
DC
52%*
NH
58%*
50 to 69% of state highway &
bridge capital outlays
MA
41%
49%
Over 70% of state highway &
bridge capital outlays30 to 49% of state highway &
bridge capital outlays
Federal funds, on average, provide 52% of annual state DOT capital
outlays for highway & bridge projects
Federal, State and Local Construction Investment in Highway & Bridge Projects
Net Plus/Minus Compared to 2008 Investment Levels
-$10
-$8
-$6
-$4
-$2
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(e) 2016(f) 2017(f) 2018(f) 2019(f) 2020(f)
An
nu
al i
nve
stm
en
t d
iffe
ren
ce, i
n b
illio
ns,
fro
m 2
00
8
leve
ls
The decline in state and local spending since 2008 is showing signs of recovery.
Federal reimbursements/investments Total highway & bridge construction investment State & local investment
Sources: Total highway & bridge construction investment is the annual US Census Bureau value of construction put in place. Federal investment is calculated as 66% of federal outlays in a given fiscal year, the historical average for construction work supported by the federal program based on data from FHWA. Total federal outlays are from the CBO August 2015 Highway Trust Fund projections. State and local investment estimate is the difference between the total market and federal investment. All data adjusted for project costs. For more details, contact ARTBA chief economist, Dr. Alison Premo Black at [email protected] or 202-289-4434. © 2015 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.
Real state and local tax revenues have surpassed pre-recession levels
$1.37$1.42 $1.46 $1.45
$1.40 $1.40 $1.40 $1.41$1.47 $1.48
$1.54
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(e)
In t
rilli
on
s 2
01
5 $
Inflation-Adjusted State & Local Total Revenues
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly State & Local Tax Revenues, adjusted with Consumer Price Index
State and local governments transportation bond issues
were down 31% in 2014
$30.7$36.6
$11.6 $13.9$18.3
$12.4 $10.1
$3.9
$12.0
$5.1$6.0
$4.9
$3.6
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In b
illi
on
s$
Nominal State & Local Bond Issues for Transportation
YTD Jan - Oct Nov-Dec
Source: Federal Reserve
2015 State Transportation Funding Initiatives
Gas tax increases in 16 states since 2013
5
1
4
1
0
2
4
0
3
0 0
1
4
1
0 0
6
2
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Number of States Approving Legislation to Raise
Gas Taxes or Related Fees
Source: ARTBA analysis of state legislative information
AK
WA
OR
CA
ID
MT
WY
NV
AZ
CO
NM
ND
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
MN
IA
MO
WI
IL
MI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
OH
NY
PA
VA
NC
GA
FL
ME
WV
AR
UT
HIHI
SC
VT
CT
RI
DE
NJ
MD
DC
NH
MA
LA
Twenty-three states approved 36 transportation measures to support
transportation investment in 2015
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report, November 2015
Gas Tax Increase Approved Other Funding Measure
AK
WA
OR
CA
ID
MT
WY
NV
AZ
CO
NM
ND
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
MN
IA
MO
WI
IL
MI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
OH
NY
PA
VA
NC
GA
FL
ME
WV
AR
UT
HIHI
SC
VT
CT
RI
DE
NJ
MD
DC
NH
MA
LA
Proposed Gas Tax Increase
Twenty-two states introduced legislation to raise or index
their state gas tax or related fees in 2015
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report, November 2015
Proposed Variable Rate
AK
WA
OR
CA
ID
MT
WY
NV
AZ
CO
NM
ND
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
MN
IA
MO
WI
IL
MI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
OH
NY
PA
VA
NC
GA
FL
ME
WV
AR
UT
HIHI
SC
VT
CT
RI
DE
NJ
MD
DC
NH
MA
LA
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report, November 2015
Proposed Gas Tax Increase Gas Tax Increase 2013-14
Twenty-two states introduced legislation to raise or index
their state gas tax or related fees in 2015
Proposed Variable Rate
Voters Approved $22 Billion in Transportation Investment in 2015
Bonds: 6
measures, 10% of
total ballots
General Sales Tax: 25 measures,
41% of total
ballots
Property or Income Tax: 21
measures, 34% of
total ballots
“Fuel Tax”: 4
measures, 7% of
total ballots
“Other”: 5, 8%
61 Transportation Measures
On the Ballot69% of Measures
Approved
• Bond Measures: 83%
approved.
• General Sales Tax: 60%
approved.
• Fuel Tax: 50% approved.
• Property or Income Tax:
76% approved.
Transportation Funding Ballot Measures
Approved 2005-2015
74%69%
63%73%
80%
61%68%
77%85%
79%69% 73%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average
However, a growing percentage of contractors expect
normal or above normal growth in the next 12 months…
13%
6% 7%11%12%
8%4%
15%
22%
13%10%
13%
21%25%
28%29%
38%
31%35%
56%
44%46% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1Q
20
10
2Q
20
10
3Q
20
10
4Q
20
10
1Q
20
11
2Q
20
11
3Q
20
11
4Q
20
11
1Q
20
12
2Q
20
12
3Q
20
12
4Q
20
12
1Q
20
13
2Q
20
13
3Q
20
13
4Q
20
13
1Q
20
14
2Q
20
14
3Q
20
14
4Q
20
14
1Q
20
15
2Q
20
15
3Q
20
15
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
spo
nd
en
ts
ARTBA Quarterly Survey: Normal/Above Normal Growth Outlook
Source: ARTBA Quarterly Market Conditions Survey
Fewer contractors expect a recession in the next
12 months…
52%54%
57%
49%
38%
50%
56%
36%30%
37%33%
24%27%
16%
21%
14%
7% 7%6%
10% 10%
4%7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1Q
20
10
2Q
20
10
3Q
20
10
4Q
20
10
1Q
20
11
2Q
20
11
3Q
20
11
4Q
20
11
1Q
20
12
2Q
20
12
3Q
20
12
4Q
20
12
1Q
20
13
2Q
20
13
3Q
20
13
4Q
20
13
1Q
20
14
2Q
20
14
3Q
20
14
4Q
20
14
1Q
20
15
2Q
20
15
3Q
20
15
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
spo
nd
en
ts
ARTBA Quarterly Survey: Recession Outlook
Source: ARTBA Quarterly Market Conditions Survey
Almost half of contractors expect sluggish growth in
the next 12 months…
35%
40%
36%
39%
50%
42%40%
48% 48%50%
57%
63%
52%
60%
51%57%55%
63%59%
35%
46%49%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1Q
20
10
2Q
20
10
3Q
20
10
4Q
20
10
1Q
20
11
2Q
20
11
3Q
20
11
4Q
20
11
1Q
20
12
2Q
20
12
3Q
20
12
4Q
20
12
1Q
20
13
2Q
20
13
3Q
20
13
4Q
20
13
1Q
20
14
2Q
20
14
3Q
20
14
4Q
20
14
1Q
20
15
2Q
20
15
3Q
20
15
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
spo
nd
en
ts
ARTBA Quarterly Survey: Sluggish Growth Outlook
Source: ARTBA Quarterly Market Conditions Survey
ARTBA Economic Resources
• ARTBA Member Reports, Economic Profile
• Subscription Reports
– Contract Awards
– Value of Construction Put in Place
– Federal Obligations by State
– Contractor Survey
• Custom Reports & State Economic Impact
Studies
QUESTIONS?