2016 10 26 Stoknes fra NPF kongress - Fossilfritt Sverigefossilfritt-sverige.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/... · Source: Ottar Hellevik, 2014, Ipsos MMI’s Survey ‘Norsk Monitor’,

Per Espen Stoknes, BI

Klima-psykologiHva skaper endring,

motivasjon og innovasjon?

Per Espen StoknesDirector

Center for Green GrowthNorwegian Business School

Per Espen Stoknes, BIknes BI

on twitter: @estoknes


Klima-situasjonen nå

6.0

4.0

2.0

−2.0

0.0

(o C)

4232

39

historicalRCP2.6RCP8.5

Global average surface temperature change(a)

RC

P2.

6 R

CP

4.5

RC

P6.

0 RC

P8.

5

Mean over2081–2100

1950 2000 2050 2100

inspirasjon?

eller et stort gjesp?

Source: IPCC AR5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

SværtNoeLittIkke

Men hva med folk flest?

Norske svar:

Hvor bekymret er du for drivhuseffekt og klimaendringer?

Source: Ottar Hellevik, 2014, Ipsos MMI’s Survey ‘Norsk Monitor’,


Sweden responses 2008-2015

Source: www.wspgroup.se Allmänheten och klimatförändringen 2015

Är du klimatmedveten? ”Ser du dig själv som en person som är klimatmedveten?”

32 26 26

47 63 65

4 1 1 13 8 8

4 2 2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2009 2008

Nej, inte alls

Nej, knappast

Vet ej

Ja, kanske

Ja, absolut


International Responses 2014

“The climate change we’re currently seeing is largely the result of human activity.”

Source: Ipsos MORI Global Trends, 2014


Det psykologiske klimaparadokset

Source: Cook et al 2013, http://www.skepticalscience.com/Leiserowitz,, Maibach et al (2015). Climate change in the American mind: March, 2015.


Hvorfor? Sik

kerhe

t

Bekymring

5 Defenses5 Solutions


climate message


Distant in time …6.0

4.0

2.0

−2.0

0.0

(o C)

4232

39

historicalRCP2.6RCP8.5

Global average surface temperature change(a)

RC

P2.

6 R

CP

4.5

RC

P6.

0 RC

P8.

5

Mean over2081–2100

1950 2000 2050 2100


in space …CLIMATE CHANGE 2013The Physical Science Basis

Summary for Policymakers

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change


Distant socially…

Credit. http://inapcache.boston.com/


in responsibility …


Psychological distancing

reduces sense of urgency

reduces felt importance of issue; low personal risk

Sources: Leiserowitz, 2005, “American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?”. Risk Analysis, 25(6), 1433–1442. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00690.xSpence and Pidgeon, 2010, “Framing and communicating climate change: The effects of distance and outcome frame manipulations,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 656–667, Oct..Spence, Poortinga, and Pidgeon, 2012, “The Psychological Distance of Climate Change: Psychological Distance of Climate Change,” Risk Analysis, vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 957–972,.



For mye dommedag?

16

leder til habituering, unngåelse og stereotyperSource: O’Neill and S. Nicholson-Cole, “‘Fear Won’t Do It” Science Communication, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 355–379, Jan. 2009. Painter, J. (2013). Climate change in the media. I. B. Tauris.



Dissonance creates a demand for doubtTwo contradictory cognitions

1. “I have high emissions.”2. “CO2 leads to climate chaos.”

Dissonance

Modifyingone or bothcognitions

“My emissions are really quite

small”

Doubting one of them

“Climate is always changing”

Adding additi-onal cognitions

“I´ve installed solar, so my trip

to Thailand doesn’t matter”

Denying they arerelated

“There is noevidence linkingCO2 and climate

change”


attitudesdrivesbehavior


both to know and not-to-know

Denial a pejorative?

better: “resistance”?

Norgaard, 2011, Living in Denial



Cars - express identity


identity overrides knowledge

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6.7

.8.9

1

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6.7

.8.9

1

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5

D. M. Kahan, 2014“Climate Science Communication and the Measurement Problem,” Advances in Political Psychology, vol. in press,.

Per Espen Stoknes, BIPPPPeeePPPPPeePPPPePPePPeePPerr rr Espen Stoknes, BI


How to break through the barriers ?

or maybe by-pass them?

We’ve enough reports


Five new strategies

SocialSimple

Supportive

Story

Signals


Five new strategies

SocialSimple

Supportive

Story

Signals

Make it social and local!

Use:• Social norms• Social media• Local issues• Flow & glow

- fra protest til fest

Per Espen Stoknes, BIPPePPePPePPePPPPPeerrrrrrr rrrrr EEEEEEsEsEEEEsssEEEsssEEEEsssEEssspeeeppeeepepppeeeepppeeeeppppeeeppp nnnnnnnnnnnnnnn StSStSttSSttSSSStttSSSttokokkkkkokokkkokokoookkookokokknnneeennneeennnneeennnneeennneeeesssssssss,ss,,ss,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBIIIIII

1. Use Power of Social Networks:

rooftop solar is contagious

Sources: Graziano, M., & Gillingham, K. (2014). Spatial patterns of solar photovoltaic system adoption: the influence of neighbors and the built environment. Journal of Economic Geography. http://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu036


1. Use Power of Social Networks:

Experimental studies to reduce domestic power consumption by comparing four groups:

1. for the sake of sustainability and the earth2. for future generations3. because it is profitable4. because your neighbours do it

Sources: Using Peer Pressure as a Tool to Promote Greener Choices by Richard Conniff: Yale Environment 360: Allcott, H., Social norms and energy conservation, J. Public Econ. (2011), doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.03.003

Per Espen Stoknes, BISources: Using Peer Pressure as a Tool to Promote Greener Choices by Richard Conniff: Yale Environment 360:

Allcott, H., Social norms and energy conservation, J. Public Econ. (2011), doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.03.003

“People don’t just want to conserve energy, they want to be acknowledged for conserving energy.” Robert Cialdini, Arizona S.U.

1. Use Power of Social Norms


ducky.no synligggjøre handlinger!


Five new strategies

SocialSimple

Supportive

Story

Signals


2. Simple to choose climate friendly

Default two-sided printing:

15% less paper

If applied to all US offices 800 ktCO2e/year

equvialent to 150.000 cars

Sources: Egebark and M. Ekström, “Can Indifference Make the World Greener?,” IFN Working Paper No. 975, 2013.Pichert and Katsikopoulos, “Green defaults: Information presentation and pro-environmental behaviour,” J. of

Environmental Psychology, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 63–73, Mar. 2008


Plate size reduced food waste by 19.5%Introducing signs reduced food waste by 20.5%

Kallbekken, S., & Sælen, H. (2013). “Nudging” hotel guests to reduce food waste as a win–win environmental measure. Economics Letters,

Per Espen Stoknes, BIPePeP rrr r EsEsEEE peepenn StStokokkokneen ss,ss, BBBBI

1.Original poster (control): ”Vegetarian”, ”Vegan”

4.”Mexican Style”as Wrap of the day

Vegetarian wrap sale under the different conditions

0 %

6 %

12 %

18 %

24 % 24 %

9 %

14 %15 %

”Vegetarian” as Dish of the Day

“Mexican Style”

“Mexican Style”as Dish of the Day

“Vegetarian” (control)

Sigrid Møyner Hohle, 2014, Nudging to curb meat consumption


en god sirkel?

Atferd

Holdninger

Politisk Støtte

PolitikkSources: Stoknes (2015) p. 129-131, andTreuer, Weber, et al (2014). Weathering the Storm: Status Quo Adjustments Explain Successful Policy Implementation. Political Behavior,

Grønn ‘dulting’ som klimakommunikasjon


Five new strategies

SocialSimple

Supportive

Story

Signals

Per Espen Stoknes, BIpeeeeeeeeeeeeeennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn StStSttStSStS okokokokokokoko nnneeeeeeneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeenenes,sss,s,s,s,ss,s,s,s,, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

“Too Costly!”

“Job-killing!!”


Health!photo credit: Parrchristie via Flickr

photo credit: deadlyvibe.com.au


“Helse”-innramming

1. Heat-related sickness

2. Respiratory health problems,

3. Infectious disease,

4. Waterborne disease,

5. Food insecurity

6. Mental health problems.

47

http://business.time.com/2012/10/31/hurricane-sandy-estimated-to-cost-60-billion/

Insurance !Henry Paulson,Michael R. Bloomberg Thomas F. Steyer:“it’s time to take out an insurance policy of our own.”

Sandy: ~60bn$

Per Espen Stoknes, BI 49

solarroadways?

Source: Solarroads

endless opporunities!


Five new strategies

SocialSimple

Supportive

Story

Signals

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

It's real? It's us? Worried? Solvable?

82

44

32

186

5252

63

Yes No

The ‘Big 4’ Climate Beliefsit’s real — it’s us — it’s bad — it’s solvable

Source: Leiserowitz & al, Yale PCCC, Mar 2015, N=1,263, p. 27, 29, 30 ,39


Grønn Vekst til 2030Grønnn VVeekst ttiil 2030

Det trengs enPPerPer EspeEspe Sn Stn Stoknekoknes Bs, BI

ny stor fortelling52


Why smart, green growth?

• Because it’s profitable

• Because it’s more expensive to continue as today

• The stone age didn't end because of lack of stones

• The petroleum age won’t end because of lack of oil, but…

$€

£

53

Fotavtrykk

Livskvalitet

Fortellinger om dype Forandringer


Five new strategies

SocialSimple

Supportive

Story

Signals

CO2 avtrykk i nettbanken?

Gjøre signaler personlige



Green GrowthWhat’s really needed

59

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

>1,000 ppm CO2eq

(172 scenarios, RCP8.5)

720–1,000 ppm (148 scenarios, RCP6)

580–720 ppm (144 scenarios, RCP4.5)

480–580 ppm (509 scenarios, no equivalent RCP)

430–480 ppm (116 scenarios, RCP2.6)

2014 estimate

Historical

emissions

100

80

60

40

20

0

–20

Ne

t C

O2 e

mis

sio

ns

(Gt

CO

2 y

r–1)

RCP8.5

3.2–5.4 °C

Relative to

1850 – 1900

RCP6

2.0–3.7 °C

RCP4.5

1.7–3.2 °C

RCP2.6

0.9–2.3 °CNet-negative global emissions

“Global Burning”

“A world we recognize”

-2% / yr


Green Growth

while global GDP grows X 3

60

COO2

- 2%

0 % år

GDP+ 3%}-5 % år

average change 2015-2050Randers, “Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of value added (‘GEVA’) — A corporate guide to voluntary climate action,” Energy Policy, vol. 48, pp. 46–55, Sep. 2012.

Genuine Green Growth (GGG) in Nordics

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GGG=5%paSwedenFinlandDenmarkNorwayOECD-total

Source: Stoknes (2016, in press), building on OECD Stats, Green Growth Indicators for 2000-2013, Production-based CO2 productivity, GDP per unit of energy-related CO2 emissions, US 2010 dollars per kilogram. SSB Preliminary figures for Norway 2014-2015


TON

NES

CO

2/

VA

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

25

20

15

10

5

0

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Operationsper unit of value added*

TARGET

Companies doing their fair share

62 Source: Tomra Corporate Responsibility report, 2012

-5%/yr


60

80

100

120

140

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Ind

exed

gro

wth

GVA per capita

GHG emissions per capita

Smart City Green Growth

63

5% per year 1994-2010

Source: The New Clmate Economy Report, 2015

CopenhagenDenmark

Per Espen Stoknes, BIPerPerr EspeeEspeEspen Stn StStn oknkokneoknes, Bs, II

Konklusjoner:Er mennesker uunngåelig kortsiktige?

64

1....Den rasjonelle klimakommunikasjon virker ikke

2.2...Mennesker vil handle langsiktig når betingelser er på plass: g g gg psosiale normer, støttende rammer, enkle handlinger, samlende fortellinger og signaler

3.3...Individuelle handlinger løser ikke klimaproblement, men g pde bygger nedenfor-og-opp støtte for strukturelle løsninger


Learn more about climate psychology?

on twitter: @estoknes

65


Exercise: Climate Conversations1. Let’s make pairs - two & two

2. Choose who is “A” and who is “B”

3. Think of a conversation you had or speech you gave to someone you hoped to engage in climate. But the conversation / reaction went very different from expected:

• Who was this? Where? When?

• What did you say - what did ‘they’ say?

• How did you feel? How did it end?

4. B starts to share for 10 mins, with A mainly listening deeply

5. Then it is A’s turn to share for 10 mins, while B mainly listens

6. Plenary discussion: What barriers / challenges / solutions were active?


Den Vanskelige Klima-samtalen1. Gå sammen to og to

2. Velge hvem er “A” og hvem “B”

3. Tenk på en samtale du hadde eller presentasjon du ga til noen du håpte å engasjere i klima. Men samtalen ble forskjellig / noe annet enn du forventet

• Hvem var dette? Hvor? Når?

• Hva sa du? Hva var svaret du fikk?

• Hvordan følte du deg da? Hvordan endte det?

4. B begynner fortelle til A for 5 min, med A som mest lytter

5. Så A’s tur til å fortelle i 5 mins, mens B hovedsaklig lytter

6. Plenum; hvilke barrierer opplevde dere?


Gruppe-arbeid

• 5 min : individuelt arbeid; hvilke nye kommunikasjonstrategier kan ditt företag ta i bruk?

• Runde rundt bordet: presenterer ditt forslag, 2 min per person

• Avstemning: 2 stemmer hver -hva inspirerte meg?

1.Social: using social norms to engage employees

2.Supportive: frame climate change as an opportunity for better lives

3.Simple: use nudging for make it simple to choose climate friendly

4.Story: green growth is smart, quality of life, stewardship, rewilding

5.Signal: reporting signals of green growth progress

Documents

2016 10 26 Stoknes fra NPF kongress - Fossilfritt Sverigefossilfritt-sverige.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/... · Source: Ottar Hellevik, 2014, Ipsos MMI’s Survey ‘Norsk Monitor’,