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2015 New Hampshire Energy Summit
5 October 2015
Robert Scott, Commissioner, New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission
Key Factors Impacting Winter Prices
• Electric Generating Unit Fuel Costs– Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity• Natural Gas Price
– LNG Imports and Price– Fuel Oil Availability and Price
• Import of Electricity Into Region• Weather and Demand for Natural Gas• Demand for Electricity
2015-2016 Winter Period Electric Utility Rate Filings are Lower Than Last Winter
o Energy Service (rate to cover electricity only) filings that cover the upcoming winter period • Liberty - 9.221 cents per kWh for residential customers
~40% less than last winter’s rate of 15.487 cents per kWh Effective November 2015 – July 2016
• PSNH - estimate is 9.65 cents per kWh (with temporary 0.98 cent scrubber recovery rate) 8.6% lower than last winter’s rate Annual rate effective January 1, 2016
• Unitil – 9.409 cents per kWh for residential customers ~40% lower than last winter’s rate of 15.544 cents per kWh Proposed rate effective December 2015 – May 2016
• NHEC - 9.5 cents per kWh 18% lower than last winter’s rate of 11.6 cents per kWh Effective November 1, 2015 – April 30, 2016
4
March 2003
July
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March 2012
July
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March 2013
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March 2014
July
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March 2015
$0
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$0
$5
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Wholesale Electricity at New England Hub (Real-Time LMP) Natural Gas
The Region has Experienced Volatile Gas and Electric Prices in the Past Few Winters
4
Hurricanes hit the Gulf
Before the Recession and
Marcellus Shale gas boom
Winter 2012/2013
Winter 2013/2014
Elec
tric
Ene
rgy
$/M
Wh
Fuel $/MM
Btu
Monthly Average Natural Gas and Wholesale Electricity Prices in New England
Record low natural gas and wholesale electricity prices
Winter 2014/2015
Slide courtesy ISO-NE
55Source: ISO New England, New York ISO, PJM Interconnection
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-2014 2014-20150
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Winter Season (Dec-Feb) Average Wholesale Electricity Prices2010 –March 2015
ISO-NENYISOPJM EastPJM West
Dolla
rs p
er M
egaw
att H
our (
$/M
Wh)
In Winter 2014-2015, ISO-NE prices were: 88% higher than NYISO, 37% higher than PJM East, and 65% higher than PJM West
6Source: ISO New England
------------------------
Dramatically reduced coal/oil operations
New England has Seen Dramatic Changes in Energy Mix
Source: ISO-NE
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
2011 - 2012 2012 - 2013 2013 - 2014 2014 - 2015
$1.9 B
$4.9 B
$2 B $1.6 Bbaseline year
$3.5 B
$6.5 B
$3.6 BBillions
New England Winter Wholesale Electricity Costs compared to baseline* December through March
Additional cost compared to Winter 2011/12 baseline Winter Wholesale Electricity Costs
Cost data sourced from ISO- NE's Wholesale Load Cost Reports.
Wholesale costs for 2014/2015 include estimate for March 2015.
*Winter 2011/12 was warmer than normal and natural gas- fired generators had relatively ready access to pipeline capacity without producing significant constraints.
New England’s Expected Retirements
9Source: ISO New England
Robert Scott Commissioner
New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission