2015 Individual Exchange information, last updated November 19, … · 2020-01-06 · 2015 Individual Exchange information, last updated November 19, 2014 +43% +28% +28% ... Publicly

The content that follows is based on approved 2015 individual exchange offering data from state and federal exchanges, and is current as of November 19, 2014.

We have approved data for all 50 states and D.C., covering 499 rating areas and 3,144 counties across the entire U.S.

Please note: This report does not include off-exchange rates. For additional methodological details about how each of the charts was calculated, please see the appendix.

Please contact us at [email protected] with any questions.

McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform

2015 Individual Exchange information, last updated November 19, 2014

+43%

+28%

+28%

Incumbents from2014 (of 282 total)

By the Numbers

70CARRIER EXCHANGE PARTICIPATION EXCHANGE PRODUCT OFFERINGS

PREMIUM CHANGES FROM 2014 IMPACT OF PREMIUM CHANGES

2015 filed carriers across 50 states and D.C.+ Average across 50 states and D.C.

Percentage of subsidy-eligible population across 50 states and D.C.*

Weighted average annual change*

Ranges across all rating areas in 50 states and D.C.

New entrants in 2015

1.4x

Lowest-pricebronze plans

Lowest-pricesilver plans

2nd lowest-price silver plans

Maximum increaseMaximum decrease

Will see net premium decrease in lowest- price silver plan

Will see net premium increase in lowest- price silver plan73%

$

26% +$169

-$118


More plans offered compared to 2014

*Based on a weighted average net premium across all subsidy-eligible individuals; accounts for age, family size, income, and geography. Totals may not add up to 100% in cases where some individuals see no change.

+Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state, i.e., carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times, and a carrier that offers plans under 2 different carrier names in one state is counted 2 times

2 56

SOURCE: Publicly available product data on federal and state exchanges as of November 18, 2019. Last updated November 19, 2019.

2015

2014

2015

2014

-30%

-29%

-33%

McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System ReformSOURCE: Publicly available product data on federal and state exchanges as of November 19, 2014.**Includes provider-based entrants offering coverage in other lines of business.

Provider**14%

Medicaid11%

CO-OP 6%

Regional / Local 9%

National59%

Blues1%

BY CARRIER TYPE BY EXPERIENCE

2014 exchange

presence in other states

13%

Off-exchange in state, 2014 exchange

presence in other state(s) 44%

New to individual insurance

20%Off-exchange

in state, no 2014

exchange presence

23%

70 New Entrants

70 new entrants* in 2015 across the U.S.

*Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state, i.e., carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times, and a carrier that offers plans under 2 different carrier names in one state is counted 2 times

Lowest-price silver net premium change

SOURCE: Mckinsey Center for US Health Reform; Mckinsey Advanced Healthcare Analytics; data from federal and state exchanges as of Novemver, 15 2014. Last updated November 26, 2014.

Net premium change in 2014 lowest-price silver to 2015 lowest-price silver


$ PMPY premium change for all QHP-eligible consumers

WA

MT

ID

UT

AZ

CO

SD

NDMN

MO

WI

VT ME

MI

IN

KY

TN

AL GA

SC

VAWV

LA

NE

KS

OK AR

HI

AK

OR

IA

FL

PA

OH

NY

TX

NV

CA

IL

NHMA

CTNJ

RI

DEMDDC

State by State


NM

NC

MS

WY

Click on a state for details about 2015 individual exchange filings



+9%

+9%

Alabama

02 01CARRIER EXCHANGE PARTICIPATION EXCHANGE PRODUCT OFFERINGS


2015 filed carriers across state+ Total across state

Subsidy-eligible population across state*

Weighted averageannual change*


2.5x



2nd lowest-pricesilver plans

-2%

-2% +9%

-3%


Will see net premium increase in lowest- price silver plan

91% 7%

+$92

-$22



Range across rating areas in stateMaximum increaseMaximum decrease $


2015

2014




Alaska







0.8x






100% 0%

+$99





+28%

+28%

+28%

2015

2014




Arizona







0.9x






7% 93%

+$70

-$238





2015

2014

+4%

+13%

-18%

-21% +10%

-10%


+Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state, i.e., carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times, and a carrier that offers plans under 2 different carrier names in one state is counted 2 times. Reduction in number of existing carriers due to 2 instances of a carrier with 2 filing names in 2014 now filing under 1 name in 2015

Maximum increaseMaximum decrease $Range across rating areas in state

Arkansas








1.5x





98% 2%



+$119

-$552nd lowest-price silverplans


+8%-8%

-7%

-9%

2015

2014



Incumbents++ from2014 (of 11 total)

+12%

+6%

California







1.0x




-2%

-3% +10%

-2%



85% 14%

+$143

-$52




2015

2014

*Based on a weighted average net premium across all subsidy-eligible individuals; accounts for age, family size, income, and geography. Totals may not add up to 100% in cases where some individuals see no change.++Reflects withdrawal of one 2014 carrier in November, 2013



+2%-28%

-29%

-30% -$248

Maximum increaseMaximum decrease $

Colorado






Weighted average annual change*


1.1x






42% +$50


Range across rating areas in state


NOTE: Due to changes in Colorado rating areas, only plans from the most populated combined 2014 regions used in comparison with new 2015 regions *Based on a weighted average net premium across all subsidy-eligible individuals; accounts for age, family size,

income, and geography. Totals may not add up to 100% in cases where some individuals see no change.

2015

2014



-19%

-2%

-8%

-$21

Connecticut









2.2x



2nd lowest-pricesilver plans +1%

+3%




4%

$


2015

2014More plans offered compared to 2014

+$207

*Based on a weighted average net premium across all subsidy-eligible individuals; accounts for age, family size, income, and geography. Totals may not add up to 100% in cases where some individuals see no change.SOURCE: Publicly available product data on federal and state exchanges as of November 18, 2019.

Last updated November 19, 2019.


+9%


District of Columbia








0.9x




+1%

+5%



60% McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform


2015

2014

Plans offered compared to 2014

+$30


-$73




Delaware







1.2x




-3%

+4%

+4%



100% 0%

+$35





2015

2014




+40%

+24%

Florida







0.6x




-29%

-22% +24%

-18%



80% 17%

+$246

-$90





2015

2014




Georgia








1.9x



+24%

+10%

-21%

-23%

-30%



93% 6%



+$292

-$992nd lowest-price silverplans


+23%

2015

2014




Hawaii







0.7x






100% 0%

+$122





+9%

+14%

+10%

2015

2014




+13%

+9%

Idaho







1.4x




-10%

-12% +10%

-12%



77% 23%

+$173

-$76




+Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state; i.e.,a carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times


2015

2014

2015

2014



+19%

+13%

Illinois







1.2x




-3%

-3% +12%

-7%

Will see net premium decrease in lowest-price silver plan

Will see net premium increase in lowest-price silver plan

72% 28%

+$108

-$89




+Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state; i.e.,a carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times. Reduction in number of existing carriers due to 2 instances of a carrier with 2 filing names in 2014 now filing under 1 name in 2015


2015

2014


-$79


Indiana









2.0x




+10%-23%

-25%

-27%




+8%


+10%

+Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state; i.e.,a carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times.


2015

2014


+$100


+13%

+13%

+13%

Iowa







1.0x




-18%

-18%

-14%



81% 19%

+$373

-$119





2015

2014




Kansas







0.8x




-11%

-13% +2%

+11%

+19%

-1%



7% 93%

+$34

-$254






2015

2014



Kentucky








1.3x



+9%

+18%

+14%-17%

-9%

-19%



43% 56% McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform



2015

2014

2015

2014

+$783

-$160

2nd lowest-price silverplans




+9%

+6%

Louisiana







1.3x




-3%

+8%

-2%

-6%Will see net premium decrease in lowest- price silver plan


41% 55%

+$207

-$119






2015

2014

2015

2014


-$44

+$65

Maine








1.4x




-3%

-4%

-7%








2015

2014

2015

2014


-$54

Maryland









1.4x




+14%

+7%

+7%

-22%

-1%

-2%





+$81


+Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state; i.e.,a carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times. Reduction in number of existing carriers due to an instance of a carrier with multiple filing names in 2014 now filing under 1 name in 2015.

-1%51%


2015

2014

2015

2014



Massachusetts







1.1x






72% 28%

+$255




*Based on a weighted average net premium across all subsidy-eligible individuals; accounts for age, family size, income, and geography. Totals may not add up to 100% in cases where some individuals see no change.SOURCE: Individual market exchange information available through state and federal exchanges

with active window shopping as of November 13, 2014. Last updated November 14, 2014

+7%

+10%-$213

2015

2014

-3%

-14%

-6%


+13%

+7%

Michigan








2.0x




-2%

-3%

-6%



99% 1%

+$283





-$65


2015

2014


+15%


Minnesota







1.6x






85% 15%

+$195




*Based on a weighted average net premium across all subsidy-eligible individuals; accounts for age, family size, income, and geography. Totals may not add up to 100% in cases where some individuals see no change.SOURCE: Individual market exchange information available through state and federal exchanges

with active window shopping as of November 13, 2014. Last updated November 14, 2014

+26%

+43%

+25%

-$205

2015

2014

-8%

-2%

-8%


Mississippi








1.8x




-33%

-24%

-26%



78% 21%

+$325




-$105


+6%

2015

2014




Missouri







1.3x






52% 45% McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform




+18%

+18%

+23%

-6%

-10%

-12%

2015

2014

2015

2014

+$70

-$96




+3%

Montana







1.5x




-3%

-8%

-8%



78% 22%

+$61

-$73





2015

2014

2015

2014




+13%

+17%

Nebraska







1.0x



2nd lowest-pricesilver plans -3%

+17%Will see net premium decrease in lowest- price silver plan


100% 0%

+$96








Nevada








1.3x


Lowest-pricesilver plans +1%

+10%

-5%

-7%

-18%

Will see net premium decreasein lowest-price silver plan




+$39


-$33



2015

2014

2015

2014




New Hampshire







3.8x




-17%

-18%

-15%



0% 100% -$147





2015

2014




New Jersey







1.9x




+2%

-1%



100% 0%

+$153





2015

2014




New Mexico







1.2x




-11%

-14%



77% 23%

+$64

-$170





2015

2014




New York








1.1x




+11%

+6%

+13%

-2%

-11%Will see net premium decrease in lowest- price silver plan




-$324


2015

2014



+$106


+16%

North Carolina







1.5x




-14%

-16%

+21%

+21%

-14%



39% 60%

+$69

-$78





2015

2014




+7%

+8%

North Dakota







1.2x




-1%

+7%Will see net premium decrease in lowest-price silver plan


34% 66%

+$66

-$55





2015

2014



+13%

+12%

Ohio








1.8x




-22%

-4%

-8%



63% 37%

+$148




+17%-$53


2015

2014


+Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state, i.e., carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times, and a carrier that offers plans under 2 different carrier names in one state is counted 2 times. Reduction in number of existing carriers due to 2013 acquisition.


+22%

+15%

Oklahoma







0.8x




+11%-7%Will see net premium decrease in lowest-price silver plan


9% 90%

+$71

-$103





2015

2014





Oregon








1.1x





Will see net premium increase in lowest- pricesilver plan

99% 1%



+10%

+10%

+9%

$


2015

2014

-$1



+$139


+16%

+16%

+16%

Pennsylvania







1.2x




-8%

-1%

-11%



83% 17%

+$272

-$80





2015

2014



-5%

-11%

-12%


Rhode Island









2.0x








2015

2014

-$249




+$102


+3%

+8%

South Carolina







2.2x




-17%

-6% +5%

-6%



35% 65%

+$110

-$67





2015

2014




South Dakota







1.2x




-9%

-15%

-15%



93% 6%

+$103

-$214





2015

2014



+1%

-7%

-6%

+16%

+15%

+10%


Tennessee








1.5x








Plans offered compared to 2014

2015

2014

-$18

+$60




-7%


+26%

+17%

Texas







1.5x




-6% +16%

-4%



88% 12%

+$162

-$40





2015

2014




+10%

Utah







1.2x




-3%

+3%

+14%Will see net premium decrease in lowest-price silver plan


92% 6%

+$148

-$67





2015

2014




-$16

Virginia








1.1x




+12%

+8%

+6%

-3%



1% +$73





2015

2014




Vermont








0.9x




+8%

+7%



100% 0%



+$153



2015

2014



+4%-9%

-19%

-10%


-$189

Washington








1.6x






64% +$181





2015

2014




+9%

+9%

+9%

West Virginia







1.2x






100% 0%

+$60





2015

2014


+Based on the number of carriers that offer plans in each state, i.e., carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times, and a carrier that offers plans under 2 different carrier names in one state is counted 2 times. Reduction in number of existing carriers due to an instance of a carrier with multiple filing names in 2014 now filing under 1 name in 2015..


+9%

+8%

+7%

Wisconsin







1.3x




-15%

-8%

-10%



51% 47%

+$125

-$112





2015

2014




+8%

Wyoming







2.4x




+10%

+10%



100% 0%

+$222





2015

2014




Appendix

To understand how carrier participation is changing exchange competitive dynamics, we compared the carriers competing on the exchanges in 2014 and 2015.

The carrier count represents the number of unique carriers offering products in at least one county within a state. (Not all carriers offer products in every county within a state.) Carrier count is as it appears to consumers shopping on exchanges. Specifically, the count is the number of carriers that offer plans in each state, i.e., carrier that offers plans in 3 states is counted 3 times, and a carrier that offers plans under 2 different carrier names in one state is counted 2 times.

“Incumbents from 2014” represents the number of carriers that filed exchange plans in a given state in both 2014 and 2015.

“Of XX total” represents the number of 2014 exchange carriers in a given state. (If that number is greater than the number of incumbents filing in 2015, one or more incumbents left that state’s exchange market in 2015.)

“New entrants in 2015” represents the number of carriers filing 2015 exchange plans that did not participate in 2014.

How to read the charts

00 00CARRIER EXCHANGE PARTICIPATION

To understand how consumers’ choice of products is changing, we compared the number of exchange products offered in 2014 and 2015.

“Total across state” was calculated by determining the total number of plans (in all metals levels) in each rating area and then adding those numbers together.

“Plans offered compared to 2014” represents the difference between the total number of 2015 exchange plans offered in a given state and all 2014 exchange plans offered in that same state; plans were counted uniquely at a rating area level (i.e., each plan in each rating area counts as 1).

On the summary slide (“By the Numbers”), this difference represents an average of each state's 2014 vs. 2015 total exchange product offerings.

How to read the charts2015

2014

EXCHANGE PRODUCT OFFERINGS

PREMIUM CHANGES FROM 2014

+14%-19%

-17%

-21% +15%

+13%


IMPACT OF PREMIUM CHANGES


To understand how consumers’ choice of products is changing, we compared the number of exchange products offered in 2014 and 2015.

“Total across state” was calculated by determining the total number of plans (in all metals levels) in each rating area and then adding those numbers together.

“Plans offered compared to 2014” represents the difference between the total number of 2015 exchange plans offered in a given state and all 2014 exchange plans offered in that same state; plans were counted uniquely at a rating area level (i.e., each plan in each rating area counts as 1).

On the summary slide (“By the Numbers”), this difference represents an average of each state's 2014 vs. 2015 total exchange product offerings.

To understand how premium price changes impact affordability, we calculated the premium price change in the lowest-price bronze, lowest-price silver, and second-lowest-price silver plans available in every rating area within a given state between 2014 and 2015. In both years, we used the gross per member per month (PMPM) premium price (before any subsidies) for a 40-year-old non-smoker.“Maximum decrease / increase” represents the maximum percentage change in premiums across all rating areas in a given state, for each specified price point (i.e., lowest-price bronze, lowest-price silver, and second-lowest-price silver plans). (On the summary slide, it represents the maximum change across all rating areas in all states analyzed.)Each percentage represents a premium price change in one specific rating area (whichever rating area has the maximum decrease or maximum increase across the entire state). It does not represent premium changes seen across the entire state.

+$19

-$22


PREMIUM CHANGES FROM 2014

38% 62%

Appendix

To understand the net premium changes that subsidy-eligible individuals will face, we calculated the weighted average change in net premiums between 2014 and 2015 for the lowest-price silver plan in each rating area. We assumed that all individuals will redetermine their subsidy eligibility in 2015.First, we established a distribution of subsidy-eligible individuals (at a household level) in each rating area, using public sources (Census Bureau, ACS, SAHIE).Next, we combined this population distribution with data about 2014 and 2015 lowest-price silver plan net premiums, calculating per member per month net premiums at a household level. To estimate net premiums, we used income level and household size to determine the relative premium cap for each household unit. Then, we calculated the second-lowest-price silver premium based on the median age for each age bucket combined with household size to determine relative subsidy, and applied that to the lowest-price silver to calculate net premium of the lowest-price silver plan. Finally, we used the 2014 and 2015 net premiums to calculate weighted average rate changes for the 51 states individually and collectively.

Documents

2015 Individual Exchange information, last updated November 19, … · 2020-01-06 · 2015 Individual Exchange information, last updated November 19, 2014 +43% +28% +28% ... Publicly