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2015 Analyst Meeting Feb 18, 2016
Disclaimer
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.
The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
2
2015 Highlight
Achievement in 2015
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
CEO’s Agenda
1
2
3
4
5
Agenda
3
10.4 14.1 14.7 7.6
14.0
(16.0)
(3.1) (3.5) (5.0) (1.0)
(0.4)
(0.7) (1.3)
0.8
(0.5)
(6.0)
10.3 9.9 3.5 12.5
60,949 48,658 45,470
272,968 199,595
YoY 25%
QoQ 7%
Highlight: 2015 Performance Overview of Business
Net Sales (net excise)
Dubai Unit: USD/BBL
-5,779
888 447
-5,235
9,402 Net income
Unit: MB
Unit: MB
4 4Q/14 4Q/15 2015
YoY 108%
QoQ 50%
1. In 4Q/15, average Dubai price dropped to $40.7/bbl from $49.7/bbl in 3Q/15, driven by the global supply glut situation, the new supply from Iran and the China’s economic slow down.
2. Net sales were 45,470 MB in 4Q/15, decreasing by 7% from 48,658 MB in 3Q/15 due to a decrease of 9% in the product prices offset by an increase of 2% in the sales volume.
In 2015, net sales were 199,595 MB, 27% lower than net sales of 272,968 MB in 2014. This was caused by a 34% decrease of the average price, while the sale volume increased by 7%.
3. Market GIM in 4Q/15 was $14.7/bbl, rising by $0.6/bbl compared to $14.1/bbl in 3Q/15 because of a higher product spreads and benefit of Delta program. With the stock loss, Accounting GIM was $9.9/bbl, slightly dropped from $10.3/bbl in 3Q/15.
In 2015, the Market GIM rose to $14.0/bbl from $7.6/bbl in 2014 and the Accounting GIM increased to $12.5/bbl from $3.5/bbl in 2014.
4. Net profit was 447 MB in 4Q/15, compared to 888 MB in 3Q/15. In 2015, net profit was 9,402 MB, compared to net loss of 5,235 MB in 2014.
3Q/15 2014
YoY 27%
Market GIM
Accounting GIM
Oil hedging
Unit: $/bbl
YoY 280%
YoY 264%
QoQ 4%
Stock gain/(loss) & LCM
YoY 258%
49.7 40.7
96.6
50.9 74.4
35 30
71 57
20 26
26 66
10 14
21
12
65 70
118
135
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2014T 2014A 2015T 2015A
Highlight: Strategic Projects
5
1. DELTA 3. PPE+PPC 2. UHV
Becoming Excellence in all 3 pillars strengthening IRPC’s base line performance for further enhancement in Everest Project
Operational Excellence
Commercial Excellence
• VCM/LP Upgrade, Production Planning & Schedule Optimization
• Yield and Process Energy Optimization • Utility System Optimization • Overhead Cost Management • UHV Enhancement • Margin Improvement
• Petrochemical Marketing and Sales Excellence
• Petroleum Marketing and Sales Excellence
Procurement & HR Excellence • Internal Organization Merger • Leadership Development • Improvement of HR System • HR Operation Expenses Management
Unit: M USD
Highlight: Strategic Projects
UPSTREAM PROJECT FOR HYGIENE AND VALUE ADDED PRODUCTS: UHV PROJECT
Start up : 1Q/2016
• TRIR : 0.28 • LTSR : 0.00
As of December 2015
1. DELTA 3. PPE+PPC 2. UHV
6
1. DELTA 3. PPE+PPC 2. UHV
Highlight: Strategic Projects
July 15: Progress 96% October 15 : Progress 98%
January 16: Progress 99.31%
7
April 15 : Progress 93%
UHV Key Milestone Schedule
Highlight: Strategic Projects
PP Expansion and PP Compound Project Shifting of Product Portfolio toward Variety and Premium Product serving Mega Trend
PP Expansion (PPE)
160 KTA
PP Compound (PPC) 140 KTA
Random PP
• Pipe grade • Hygiene
Super Clear PP
• Container box • Medical Device
Block-CO PP
• Household Material
• Heavy-duty
HOMO PP
• Film application • Fiber grade
PP Specialty
• Frozen food packaging
• Lamination • Health care
Total PP 775 KTA in 2017
PP Existing 475 KTA
PP Compound
• Automotive: pumper, instrument panel, etc
Apr 20, 2015 BOD Approved CAPEX 236 MUSD.
May 2015 Awarded EPC Contractor
July 2015 Signed contract with Sinopec
July 2017 COD
Dec 2015 Progress 15% Construction
2017 2015
1. DELTA 3. PPE+PPC 2. UHV
8
2015 Highlight
Achievement in 2015
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
CEO’s Agenda
1
2
3
4
5
Agenda
9
Achievement in 2015 - Operation
Production improvement and machine efficiency enhancement:
94 projects such as Advance Process Control, Alarm management, etc.
Asset Integrity Management Committee - to maintain plant reliability and manage production risks
Efficient energy usage management: Energy Intensity Index (EII) down to 97.07% and energy saving of 245 MB
Safety improvement: process safety management, safety awareness program and Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) at 0.46
Synergy with PTT: best practice sharing and top quartile performance achievement at 80%
10
Revamp capacity - NHTU 115% from 18 to 21 KBD - ISOM 115% from 3.5 to 4.0 KBD - BTX 120% from 57 to 68 tph
Achievement in 2015 - Marketing
JV Agreement between IRPC, Nippon A&L Inc. and Sumi-Thai International Limited
To increase competitiveness in the Styrenic compound market
JV Agreement between IRPC Polyol and PCC Rokita SA – for the sale of Polyurethane
11
1 year Propylene Sale Agreement (product from UHV Project) with Marubeni Corporation
28.5 MUSD Sale and Purchase Agreement signed with Darby Trading Inc.
Slack Wax market expansion into USA and Europe
5 oil depots to provide excellent service to the whole country, including Rayong depot with 24 hr service
Oil transportation including trucks, boat and deep sea port to serve the customers all over the country
Skilled technicians to give information, solve problems and test the oil quality at gas stations and depots
Wharf expansion to provide additional loading/unloading space
Diesel storage tank service agreement signed with PTT
Achievement in 2015 – Innovation and R&D
Natural Color Compound Development of natural color compound with the pigment
extracted from natural raw material . Cooperation with Picnic Plast Industrial Co.,Ltd. to launch
products under “Clip Pac” brand
Green ABS Innovation of ABS resin by replace synthesis rubber (butadiene)
with natural rubber in ABS (Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene). Cooperation between IRPC and Blue Light Industrial, a launch of
the luggages made from Green ABS under the CAGGIONI brand
Wood Plastic Composite Cooperation with Wonderworld Products Co., Ltd , to
develop the product innovation, Wood Plastic Composite. Launched the first product “Trix Track” , the smart toy.
POLIMAXX BANBAX A special type of plastic that compounds the anti-bacteria
base into the plastic which can protect bacteria continuous and long lasting without any effect
12
Achievement in 2015 – CG & CSR
Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption
PTT Group CG Day Shade of Sharing
DJSI Emerging Market: Oil & Gas
13
VOCs management in the industrial zone by using mobile activated carbon and monitoring carefully
Protection strip up by 39 Rai or 35,000 trees which can absorb CO2 for 300 tons/year
Continual SO2 and dust reduction, plus NO2 reduction for 960 tons/year
Awarded Eco Factory Certification: ETP, CHP, Refinery and LBOP
Prostheses Project One for Nine
Achievement in 2015 – Awards
Board of the Year Awards 2015 Audit Committee of the Year
Asia Responsible Entrepreneurship Awards
ASEAN Corporate Governance Awards
Thailand Sustainability Investment Awards
Sustainability Report Awards (SET)
Golden Peacock Global Award for Excellence in CG
Corporate Governance Asia Recognition Awards 2015:
Best Investor Relations by Company Thailand Top Company Awards 2015
: Top Business Strategy Award
14
2015 Highlight
Achievement in 2015
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
CEO’s Agenda
1
2
3
4
5
Agenda
15
Petroleum Performance
16
Lube spread moved down from the weaker demand due to the replacement of Group II lube base, plus the product price was lower along with the decreasing crude oil price
Asphalt spread increased as the demand from Europe became stronger and the local demand was rising from the government’s economic stimulus package.
Global crude oil price moved down continually : the global supply glut, the supply from Iran after lifting of sanction, plus the pressure from China’s economic stagnation.
Naphtha spread jumped as the higher demand because of the usage of the product as feedstock for gasoline, plus the rising demand from Petrochemical.
ULG95 spread was lower because of the increasing supply from China and new refineries in the ME and Indonesia.
Gas Oil spread rose due to the increase in demand from West Africa and Vietnam.
FO spread increased, derived from the rising demand in winter, plus the lower fuel oil price.
Dubai Crude Price & Petroleum Product Spreads
$/MT 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Fuel Oil(FO) 591 437 318 367 265 217
150BS - FO 657 776 720 740 833 815 500SN - FO 499 493 369 399 514 471
Asphalt - FO -66 85 23 20 83 96
Fuel Oil
($/MT)
3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
$/bbl 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 Dubai (DB) 101.5 74.4 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7 NP - DB -1.6 -5.1 1.4 -0.5 -1.2 7.1 ULG95 - DB 13.2 13.4 15.3 19.8 19.3 18.7 Gas Oil - DB 14.4 16.0 16.3 13.7 10.8 13.8 FO - DB -8.4 -5.6 -1.8 -3.5 -8.1 -6.5
Dubai Price
($/bbl)
3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
FO Price & Lube Base Oil Product Spreads
106 102 96 87
76 60
46 55 55 59 64 62 56 48 45 46 42 35
601 594 578 502 456
353 279
346 328 348 390 362 310
246 238 244 229 178
1.6 1.5 1.4
7.0 7.4 7.3
1.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
11.2 11.5
7.6 6.2
25.5 29.2
4.8 5.7 3.5 3.9 0.8 0.8
67% 61% 53% 66% 58%
8% 30% 34% 9% 31% 8% 9% 10%
12% 9% 17%
3% 13%
2% Others
Domestic
Far East
Middle East
Petroleum Group : Production
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
84% 82% 84% 80% 85%
180 177 181 172 183
Crude Intake
4Q/15, the crude intake was 181 KBD (84% utilization), higher than the rate in 3Q/15 as the maintenance shutdown in ADU1 for 12 days during 3Q/15.
In 2015, the crude intake was 183 KBD (85% utilization), higher than the rate in 2014 because of the fire incident in the VGOHT Unit on June 9, 2014 which cause a lower production
Sweet Crude volume was 74 KBD in 2015, rising by 37 KBD from 2014 due to the lower premium between Brent and Dubai.
The utilization rate of Lube Base Oil plant in 2015 was 103%,
due to the domestic demand increased from the government’s stimulus package.
Crude Run (KBD)
%Utilization
Premium over Dubai($/ bbl)
2.97 2.69 2.71 3.82 2.41
Remark : Excluding internal use quantity 17
Asphalt
Lube Base
0.9 0.9 1.0
3.3 3.8 0.9 0.9 0.9
3.4 3.7
Lube Base oil
1.8 1.8 1.9
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
Unit : Mbbl 7.5
6.7
Refinery
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
11.5
Unit : Mbbl 45.8 42.2
LPG & Others Naphtha Gasoline
Diesel
Fuel oil
Local 62%
Export 38%
0
Petroleum Group : Sales & GRM
Local 59%
Export 41%
4Q/15
Local 62%
Export 38%
Sales Distribution
4Q/15 : Petroleum sales volume increased by 3% while the average product prices decreased by 9% compared to 3Q/15
2015 : Petroleum sales volume increased by 8% while the average product prices decreased by 38% compared to 2014
• The proportion of sales were 59% domestic and 41% export mainly to Singapore, Malaysia and Laos
• Market GRM was $7.1/bbl (4,253 MB), increased by $2.3/bbl (1,490 MB) from 3Q/15. In 2015, Market GRM was $6.2/bbl (14,246 MB), increased by $3.2/bbl (8,117 MB) from 2014 because of the higher spread both Refinery and Lube Base businesses.
2015 3Q/15
18
Sales Volume & Revenue
13.0 13.3 13.7
49.8 54.0
2.5 1.8 1.8
7.9 8.1
15.5 15.1 15.5
57.7 62.1
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
Lube Base
Refinery
Unit : Mbbl
38,323 29,159 27,579 177,550 122,279 Refinery
7,913 4,818 4,492 28,107 21,016 Lube Base
46,236 33,977 32,071 205,657 143,295 Petroleum
YoY 0.3% QoQ 3%
Unit : MB
YoY 8%
Remark : Sales include products swap transaction with PTTGC /Lube include VGOHT sales during fire incident
2.8 2.4
4.4
1.5
3.9
1.9 2.4
2.7
1.5
2.3 4.7 4.8
7.1
3.0
6.2
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
Lube Base
Refinery
Market GRM
16.6 16.3 16.7 62.8 66.6 Crude intake (Mbbl)
Unit : $/bbl
• Toluene spread increased from the tight supply because it’s feedstock -the reformate was used in the Gasoline production more than the Aromatic production.
• PS spread decreased because the market sentiment was deteriorated the demand continuously. Plus, the excess supply in the market made the product price lower.
• ABS spread sharply dropped due to the stagnant market and the decreasing demand from Europe and China.
• HDPE spread against Naphtha decreased from the lower crude oil price while the Naphtha price was stable due to the tight supply.
• PP spread against Naphtha moved down as the product price was downward along with the lower crude oil price, plus the China’s economic stagnation.
19
Petrochemical Performance
$/Ton 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Naphtha (NP) 913 647 494 563 461 445
Ethylene-NP 565 567 533 823 509 588
HDPE- Ethylene 135 334 266 68 441 268
HDPE- NP 700 901 799 891 950 856
Propylene-NP 388 385 339 377 275 142
PP-Propylene 325 419 316 416 390 416
PP-NP 713 804 655 793 665 558
Olefins Product Price & Spreads
Aromatics & Styrenics Price & Spreads
$/Ton 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Naphtha (NP) 913 647 494 563 461 445
BZ - NP 392 318 179 234 204 159
TOL - NP 234 183 127 203 174 179
MX - NP 225 162 169 222 225 226
SM - NP 688 602 524 793 628 494
PS - NP 821 816 674 931 806 653
ABS - NP 1033 1,119 1,068 1,095 972 757
Remark : revised Styrenics Prices calculated based on proportion of sales volume
Remark : Olefins Product Prices calculated based on proportion of sales volume
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
82% 97% 95% 90% 91% % Utilization
75% 97% 78% 84% 85% Polystyrenics
99% 106% 105% 101% 94% Styrenics
78% 92% 104% 88% 94% Aromatics
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
81% 90% 89% 88% 90% % Utilization
85% 78% 84% 83% 83% Polyolefins
78% 101% 94% 92% 97% Olefins
46 67 52
216 226 109 127
121
469 506
155 194 173
685 732
The utilization rate of Aromatics and Styrenics in 4Q/15
was 95%, moved down by 2% compared to 3Q/15. In
4Q/15, there were planned maintenance shutdown for
11 days in CCM and EPS units.
In 4Q/15, the utilization rate of Olefins was slightly
decrease from that in 3Q/15. There was 12 days of
planned shutdown in DCC unit for Steam and Boiler
System maintenance .
Petrochemical Group : Production
Remark : Utilization rate calculated based on the main products 20
58 78 83
278 311
13 9 12
46 34
60 73 60
266 251
164 160 155
591 596
Styrenics
Aromatics
Olefins
Polyolefins
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins
Polystyrenics Unit : KMT Unit : KMT
144 159 172
597 633 162 206 184
720 791
306 365 356
1,317 1,424
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
Olefins &Polyolefins
Aromatics &Styrenics
Local 55%
Export 45%
Petrochemical Group : Sales & PTF
Local 58%
Export 42%
Local 58%
Export 42%
Sales Distribution
4Q/15 2015 3Q/15
21
Sales Volume and Revenue
7,635 8,138 6,830 35,311 30,794 Olefins
6,236 5,780 5,737 28,542 22,317 Aro & Styrenics
13,871 13,918 12,567 63,853 53,111 Petrochemical
Unit : MB
Unit : KMT
YoY 16.3% QoQ 2.5%
YoY 8.1%
136 211 149
80 161
268
322 299
175
297
203
274 231
131
238
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
Unit : $/MT
Olefins &PolyolefinsAromatics &Styrenics1.5
2.7 1.9 1.0 2.0
3.1
5.5 4.7
2.5
4.7 4.6
8.2
6.6
3.5
6.7
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 2014 2015
Unit : $/bbl
Olefins &Polyolefins
Aromatics &Styrenics
Market PTF Market PTF
Crude intake (Mbbl)
Feed intake (KMT)
192 276 262 902 1,067 Olefins
185 211 216 789 818 Aromatics 16.6 16.3 16.7 62.8 66.6
• In 4Q/15, Market GIM was $14.7/bbl, rising by $0.6/bbl compared to $14.1 /bbl in 3Q/15.
- Product spreads $0.3/bbl
- Delta project $0.3/bbl
• Stock loss & Oil Hedging + LCM was $-4.8/bbl (-2,858 MB), increasing by $1.0/bbl compared to $-3.8/bbl in 3Q/15
• Accounting GIM was $9.9/bbl (5,946 MB), lower by $0.4/bbl from $10.3/bbl ( 5,966 MB) in 3Q/15.
Gross Integrated Margin (GIM)
22
• In 2015, Market GIM was $14.0/bbl, rising by $6.4/bbl compared to $7.6/bbl in 2014.
- Product spreads $5.3/bbl
- Delta project $1.1/bbl
• Stock loss & Oil Hedging + LCM was $-1.5/bbl (-3,415 MB), decreasing by $2.7/bbl compared to $-4.2/bbl in 2014
• Accounting GIM was $12.5/bbl (28,741 MB) higher by $9.0/bbl from $3.5/bbl ( 7,238 MB) in 2014.
2015 vs 2014 4Q/15 vs 3Q/15
Accounting GIM Market GIM
6.7 10.4 13.1 14.0 14.1 14.7
7.6 14.0
(4.5)
(16.0)
(0.5)
3.3
(3.1)
(3.5) (5.0)
(1.0)
0.8
(0.4)
(0.0)
0.0
(0.7)
(1.3)
0.8
(0.5)
3.0
(6.0)
12.5
17.3
10.3 9.9
3.5
12.5
3/14 4/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 2014 2015
Hedging Stk G/(L) & LCM Market GIM
2.2 4.7
7.0 6.0 4.8 7.1
3.0 6.2 3.3
4.6
5.0 6.9 8.2 6.6
3.5
6.7
1.2
1.1
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
1.2
1.1
6.7
10.4 13.1 14.0 14.1 14.7
7.6
14.0
3/14 4/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 2014 2015
Power & Utility Petrochem Petroleum$/bbl $/bbl
Financial Highlight
4Q/15 4Q/14 3Q/15 YoY QoQ 2015 2014
Net sales 45,470 60,949 48,658 (25)% (7)% 199,595 272,968 (27)%
Market GIM 8,804 5,688 8,161 55% 8% 32,156 15,788 104%
Stock Gain/(Loss) (1,985) (5,839) (1,597) 66% (24)% (5,208) (7,008) 26%
LCM (99) (2,946) (191) 97% 48% 2,969 (3,267) 191%
Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) (774) (206) (407) (276)% (90)% (1,176) 1,725 (168)%
Accounting GIM 5,946 (3,303) 5,966 280% (0)% 28,741 7,238 297%
OPEX + Selling Exp. (4,207) (3,264) (3,375) (29)% (25)% (14,351) (11,998) (20)%
Other Income 327 1,532 1,190 (79)% (73)% 2,643 3,358 (21)%
EBITDA 2,066 (5,035) 3,781 141% (45)% 17,033 (1,402) 1314%
Cost of Finance (221) (309) (202) 28% (9)% (1,162) (1,342) 13%
FX Gain/(Loss) 117 (254) (1,064) 146% 111% (1,288) (70) (1739)%
Impairment Gain/(Loss) (9) (185) 2 95% (550)% 18 299 (94)%
Investment Gain/(Loss) (30) (55) (29) 45% (3)% (157) 117 (234)%
Other Expense (48) - - - - 2,782 (4) N/A
Income Tax (31) 1,393 (209) (102)% 85% (2,346) 2,398 (198)%
Net Profit 447 (5,779) 888 108% (50)% 9,402 (5,235) 280%
Unit : MBQuarter % Change Year %
Change
23
51,944 54,608 53,500
8,847 281 204
60,791 54,889 53,704
2,009 2,496 3,576 -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15
L/T Debt S/T Debt Cash
Debt Structure Debt Profile
Debt Portfolio
As of Dec 31, 2015
24
ST Debt 1%
LT Debt 41%
Bond (USD) 16%
Bond (THB) 42%
ST Loan 204
LT Loan 22,255
Bond (USD) 8,622
Bond (THB) 22,623
Total 53,704
Debt (MB)
Float 41 THB 58
Fixed 59 USD 42
Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)
Net Debt = 50,128 MB Ex. Rate = 36.25 Baht/$
58,782 52,393 50,128
Financial Ratios
0.94 1.08 0.99
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15
0.87 0.70 0.66
4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15
< 1.0x
Net D/E CA/CL
Unit : MB Net Debt
Maturity of Financing Debt
2,370 2,740 3,040 2,540 3,740
10,270
363 725 725 3,444 725
363
5,000 -
7,386 5,000
3,364
6,890 8,628
-
7,733
3,465
19,779
10,984
7,829
17,523
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-24
Unit : MB
USD Bond THB Bond USD Loan THB Loan
4/14 3/15 4/15 Y14 Y15
Cost of Debt 3.94% 4.18% 4.15% 3.98% 4.07%
2015 Highlight
Achievement in 2015
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
CEO’s Agenda
1
2
3
4
5
Agenda
25
Challenging Crude Oil Market: Volatile Crude Oil Price
26
Main events last year were rather bearish on fundamentals
Iranian Crude Oil - Iran sanction was lifted on Jan 16,2016 - Potential 1-m b/d incremental supply
China Contagion - Stock market woe
triggered a concerned about hard landing economy
- Chinese economy is the key driver of oil market sentiment.
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping - Current production at 35 years high of
10.6 MMBD - Saudi plan to increase maximum capacity
of 12 MMBD
OPEC - Decision to keep its
production ceiling stable at 30 Mbd (June-5)
- Rising tensions in Middle-East, especially between KSA and Iran
U.S. Oil Production - Maintain high output level - Stable US production with unexpected
resilience of the US shale industry - Lifting of the 40 years old oil export ban
in US (Dec-15) - Active oil rigs increasing.
27
Iraq - Crude oil export continue to increase - Plan to export for Feb ’ 16 = 3.63 MMBD
28
World Oil Supply / Demand IEA Demand-Supply Balance 2016 Oil Price Forecast
• Massive oil surplus will drown the market at least until 4Q-16
Reuters oil poll
as of 4 Jan 16 as of 29 Jan 16
• Reuters oil poll adjusted it’s consensus down by $ 10/bbl
Source : IEA, PRISM as of Jan 16
Source : Reuters as of Jan 16
IEA Demand Change Non-OPEC Supply Change
2014 92.8 0.8 57.0 2.4
2015 94.6 1.8 58.3 1.3
2016 95.8 1.2 57.7 -0.6
Crude oil prices remain highly volatile and are lacking any clear direction
Source : Reuters , ICE, Platts, GDF SUEZ Trading
Crude Production (MBD)
29
Refinery Product Demand Overview
AP Gasoil Demand Growth (%)
1.4% Growth 2015-2020
AP Gasoline Demand Growth (%)
2.7% Growth 2015-2020
AP Fuel Oil Demand Growth (%)
-0.8% Growth 2015-2020
Source: FGE May 2015
A reduction of global sulfur limits is key to the decline bunger fuel demand
Pushing for a quicker resumption of nuclear reactors in Japan
Vehicle ownership rates started to taper
Improving vehicle efficiency reduces consumption
Fuel efficient hybrid cars in Japan and South Korea
Hybrid
EV
MGO
Falling demand growth but overall volumes remain huge
Gasoil crack still supportive from economic growth
Rising gasoil use in marine bunkers
29
30
Polyolefins Outlook
PP : Oversupply in Asia in 2015-2016 resulting to balance operating rate at lower 85%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Add. Capacity Add. Demand %Operating Rate
Million Metric Tons
Source : IHS 2015
Demand Growth
2016-2020 at 4.7% Demand Growth
2016-2020 at 5.0%
Polyolefins Global Capacity Addition Cycle
Million Metric Tons
HDPE : Capacity growth exceeds demand growth in the 2015–2018
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Add. Capacity Add. Demand %Operating Rate
Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Outlook
Driving Determinants
31
Key Products
Price (4Q/15)
Spread (4Q/15)
1Q/16
vs.
4Q/15
2Q/16 vs.
1Q/16
Refinery ($/bbl) ($/bbl) Outlook Outlook
Dubai 40.7 -
ULG95 59.4 18.7
GAS OIL 0.05% 54.5 13.8
FO 34.2 -6.5
Lube Base Oil ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook
500 SN 688 471
150 BS 1,032 815
• Gasoline cracks continued on an upward trajectory but expected to ease slightly over the rest of 1Q, but will move up in March and April when planned maintenance tightens up the market.
• Gas oil cracks still pressure from growing inventories. Spring maintenance will help to draw down inventories, but new refineries coming on stream will keep the Asian market oversupplied.
• Fuel oil cracks remain stable tracking an equally sharp decline in crude benchmarks. This has spurred bunker demand further. Delays in Western arrivals will make the Asian fuel oil market remains tight.
• Crude price are expected to remain at current lows from global supply glut; as major producers defend market share while Iran prepares to raise exports., as well as slowing Chinese economic growth and strong U.S. dollar against other currencies pressure price.
• 1Q/16 Price trend down continue from 4Q/15 because of crude price drop and pressured from base oil GII price. Market demand weak due to buyer worry about inventory lost .
• Region demand peak up in 2Q Buyer start to replenish their inventory after they clear about crude price direction.
Short-Term Petrochemical Products Outlook
32
Key Products
Price (4Q/15)
Spread (4Q/15)
1Q/16
vs.
4Q/15
2Q/16 vs.
1Q/16
Olefins ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook
Ethylene 1,033 588
HDPE 1,301 856
Propylene 587 142
PP 1,003 558
Styrenics ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook
PS 1,098 653
ABS 1,202 757
Driving Determinants
• Additional supply by spot cargo from Brazil and Maxico.
• Limited supply due to upcoming turnaround schedule and crackers shutdown in Asia and Middle East.
• Volatile crude oil prices still weight down on market’s confidence.
• Weak Chinese Economy: stock crash, Yuan Devaluation and USD appreciation result in SEA local currencies depreciation.
• In spite of the Lunar New Year holidays, traders were cautious to replenish their inventory and purchase on hand-to-mouth basis.
2015 Highlight
Achievement in 2015
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
CEO’s Agenda
1
2
3
4
5
Agenda
33
34
Getting to the top and staying there
2020
2016
2017
2018
2019
Height 29,029 ft. E verest
Basecamp (17,500’)
▪ Functional skills: Consultant Academy ▪ Systems: WAVE + TO cadence
– RTS – Problem solving – Communications – Team management
▪ Performance management: KPI cascading, performance review and evaluation, coaching
▪ OHI, iSpirit
▪ Young Leader program: ongoing, second batch to onboard for implementation
Operations area ▪ 272 initiatives
Commercial area ▪ 185 initiatives
Procurement area ▪ 325 initiatives
Corporate area ▪ 61 initiatives
THB 5.8 bn THB 1.6 bn
Model plant
OEMS IMM Cell
8+4 M&S Budget review system
Performance
Health
EVEREST Performance: $300m+
Health: top quartile
35 SOURCE: EVEREST data cut as at 17th Feb, 17:00
Contents
THB 0.5 bn THB 1.9 bn
36
From iceberg to EVEREST
ICEBERG
EVEREST
IL 4+
IL3-
$300m
37
EVEREST pipeline is at 9.8b or 93% of the target
-11,000
-10,000
-9,000
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
9,803 9,679 9,044
7,832 7,127
6,401 5,805
6,182
8,171
6,600
7,653
5,430
6,870
THB m
SOURCE: EVEREST data pull as at 18 Feb, 8.30am
EVEREST Target = THB 10,500m ($300m)
IL2 IL0 IL1 IL4 IL3
Recurring impact is banked at 100%, while one-time value – at 10% rate
EVEREST total impact pipeline (recurring + one-time impact)
38
EVEREST impact delivery by area
THB m
SOURCE: EVEREST data pull as at 18 Feb, 8.30am Recurring impact is banked at 100%, while one-time value – at 10% rate
5,834
Corporate Procurement
513 1,884
Commercial Operations Total impact
9,803
1,580
IL2 IL1 IL4 IL3 IL0
▪ Functional skills: Consultant Academy ▪ Systems: WAVE + TO cadence
– RTS – Problem solving – Communications – Team management
▪ Performance management: KPI cascading, performance review and evaluation, coaching
▪ OHI, iSpirit
▪ Young Leader program: ongoing, second batch to onboard for implementation
Operations area ▪ 272 initiatives
Commercial area ▪ 185 initiatives
Procurement area ▪ 325 initiatives
Corporate area ▪ 61 initiatives
THB 5.8 bn THB 1.6 bn
Model plant
OEMS IMM Cell
8+4 M&S Budget review system
Performance
Health
EVEREST Performance: $300m+
Health: top quartile
39 SOURCE: EVEREST data cut as at 17th Feb, 17:00
Contents
THB 0.5 bn THB 1.9 bn
The fully integrated team
IRPC Sponsors A
Work stream Leaders B
Initiative Owners C
Experts
Consultants
Up to 25 IRPC young high potential leaders seconded to Consultant
D
E
F
Supports a work stream and related initiatives
Support key area and related work streams / initiatives
OpEx
ProcEx ComEx
HREx Finance
IRPC
Expert
130 Full-time people driving EVEREST
And More than 2,000 people jointly develop. 40
Time
Focus of model plant
Business as usual Initial condition
Technical improvement
Behavioral effect
Step change
“All those tools make life harder but don’t help me to do my job”
“We are sup-posed to use these new tools”
“Our new tools help me to react fast and make me understand where to focus”
To sustain the mindset and behavioral benefit – Create awareness about continuous improvement with your staff – Train your staff on continuous improvement behavior – Become a role model on continuous improvement
“Improvement is not important – I just need to reach my quota”
Focus of BUP / implementation
Impact
Additional value
Technical levers drive quick improvement, while model plant improves mindset and capabilities to ensures sustained performance
Making transformation sustainable
41
The model plant will demonstrate best practices and serve as a learning platform for IRPC
Mindsets, behaviors
and capabilities
Management infrastructure
Technical system
Area
Specific equipment maintenance strategy
OEE analysis
Sensors to optimize preventative maintenance
Defined KPI’s
KPI’s prioritization
Cross functional career paths
State of performance dialogues
Role specific training programs
Knowledge sharing
Practices 1 2 3 4 5 Score
Clas-sroom setup
Formal training curriculum, visitors able to learn about best practices
Example, daily and weekly meetings facilitate performance dialogues discussing KPIs
Obser-vation of best practices
Example, learning station visualizing the evolution of KPIs over time and improvement actions
Learning stations
Implemented best practices Learning platform for others Before After
P&L ownership assets
Learning the best practices
42
Model plant to setup monitoring process to measure and track performance improvement
Pilot model plant Continuous operations
Project started Future state reached
Start of roll-out Go into continuous operations: Wave 1: Sep 15th Wave 2: Dec 15th
Implementation readiness
Activities Duration
End product
▪ Define key design criteria
▪ Develop learning plan
▪ Define operating and faculty model
▪ Align concept with key stakeholders
1.5 months ▪ Develop learning
modules and future state
▪ Finalize roll-out and ramp-up plan
▪ Commit resources ▪ Define communi-
cation ▪ Start to train first
trainers
3 months ▪ Further develop and
update learning content and curricula
▪ Potentially add new learning modules
▪ Continue to train new trainers
▪ Performance dashboard across plants to track impact
Ongoing ▪ Build-up learning
environment
▪ Codify learnings & best practices
▪ Enlarge trainer and expert group
▪ Assure job-rotation opportunities
2 months
….
Mar 31st Jun 30th
▪ Pilot different learning curricula
▪ Set-up operations and ramp-up learning capacity
▪ Continuously
evaluate Learning Center service and improve
2 x 3 months
Develop concept Roll-out
Build up Learning Platform
43
44
Getting to the top and staying there
44
Height 29,029 ft.
Basecamp (17,500’)
Camp l (19,500’)
Camp ll (21,000’)
Camp lll (23,500’)
Camp lV (26,300’)
2020
2016
2017
2018
2019
ROIC 14% 1st Quartile ROIC in
Petroleum & Petrochemical Industry
Performance
Health
+
IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020
• DELTA Initiative Implementation • Assets Management (Bankai/EIZ)
Para-Xylene (PX)
Acrylic Acid (AA)
• Specialty focus and Moving away from heavy-asset company
• CHP I: Electricity +220MW, Steam +420T/hr • PRP +100KTA of Propylene • EURO IV: Gasoline 15KBD, Diesel 10KBD, Jet 15KBD • TDAE +28KTA, 150BS +25KTA • Lube Blending +60m.Ltrs./year • EBSM +60KTA, ABS/SAN +60KTA
Completed Project during 2011-13
2013 Crude Run 181 KBD Nelson Complexity Index Portfolio of Revenue: Petroleum/Petrochemical & Others
2
2016: UHV Completion Crude Run 215 KBD Nelson Complexity Index More stable portfolio of Revenue: Petroleum/Petrochemical & Others
76% / 24% 59% / 41% 6.6
8.6 84% 100%
1
Super Absorbent Polymer (SAP)
Quick Win Initiatives
New investments through JV
2013
2014
2016
2017
PP Derivatives • PP Expansion 160 KTA • PP Compounding 140 KTA
PHOENIX
DELTA
EVEREST
3
45
The future begins now creating shared value
Q & A Environment Social Education & Sports Labor & Human Rights Religion Public Health
Thank You
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