SMHI in the Arctic

Lars Axell

Oceanographic Research Unit

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Outline of this talk

•Present activities:

• Climate Monotoring SAF

• DAMOCLES

• Climate research at the Rossby Centre

• Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting

• Sensitivity studies using 1-D Arctic models

•Future activities

Cloud products of the EUMETSAT

Climate Monitoring SAF

•Atmospheric research unit at

SMHI

•Improvement of cloud

schemes in desert and in the

arctic (ongoing)

•Validation: SHEBA data (Oct.

1997 – Oct. 1998), etc

Product example: NOAA AVHRR CFC climatologies:total cloud cover - July, 2005

V1

V2

V3Area Extension

EPS - MSG

Merging (?)

MSG

HCP

NOAA

Climate Monitoring SAF:

Versions, operational introduction and areas

Version 1Jan 2005

Version 2Sep 2005

Version 3March 2007

GMT May 4 14:49:21 2001 OMC - kk+w 0 10002000

km

Inner Arctic Circle

MSG Area

Initial Baseline Area

Initialbaselinearea

CFC Cloud Fractional CoverCTY Cloud Type

CTH Cloud Top Height

CTT Cloud Top Temperature

CPH Cloud Phase

COT Cloud Optical Thickness

CWP Cloud Water Path

Time resolution

(hourly), daily, monthly, monthly mean diurnal cycle

Spatial resolution

(Pixel), 15 km x 15 km

Climate Monitoring SAF:

Cloud parameters

CM-SAF cloud products – main strengths

•Homogeneous product coverage over large areas – not available from any other

observation source

- Entire Europe, North Atlantic area and later the African and North Pole area

•“Objective” (or at least consistent) cloud observations

- not affected by subjective interpretation of ground observers

•High-resolution (15 km) cloud observations with Synop-comparable quality (< 1 octa)

and made both during daytime and night-time

•Improved information about vertical distribution of clouds

•Additional information on cloud physical properties

- essential parameters for more advanced radiative impact studies

•Available from a central facility reachable from all EUMETSAT member states

Climate research at the Rossby Centre:

Regional coupled model RCAO

• Rossby Centre research unit at SMHI

• Regional coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model of the Arctic

• Also used in DAMOCLES

• Coupled processes:• Ice-albedo-feedbacks• Surface temperature-

atmosphere dynamics feedbacks

• Regional Climate scenarios

The model’s LW downward radiation includes a contribution for the effect of auxiliary gases. A corresponding constant is varied between 5 and 15 W/m2

• 5 W/m2• 10 W/m2• 12,5 W/m2• 15 W/m2

The strong effect on sea ice includes a positive feedback via sea ice

Climate research at the Rossby Centre:

Dependence of Sea Ice on Long Wave Radiation

Climate research at the Rossby Centre:

Validation of clouds (Wyser et al., 2006)

Reference: Wyser et al. 2006

Total cloud cover atNy Ålesund/Spitsbergen

• To describe coupled processes

• Ice albedo formulation

• To describe changing coupled processes under changing large scale

conditions

• Does the model follow year-to-year variability?

• Does the model follow interdecadal variability?

• To prevent artificial drifts

• Salinity

• Are flux corrections necessary ?

Climate research at the Rossby Centre:

Challenges for the future

DAMOCLES:

Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting

•NWP and oceanographic research units at SMHI

•Atmosphere: High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM)

• Operational today: 22 km, 11 km, 5.5 km

•Ocean: High-Resolution Operational Model for the Baltic (HIROMB) set

up for the Arctic (HIROMA?)

• Operational today: 12 nm, 3 nm, 1 nm, (2” = 60 m in test, Brofjorden, Sweden)

•Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean experiments

•Resolution 0.1 degrees (11 km)

•Coupling time step 6 hours?

DAMOCLES:

Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting (cont.)

•Purposes:

• Improve prediction capabilities of NWP tools

• Improve monitoring (analysis) of the Arctic and Europe

•Focuses:

• Improve data assimilation procedures for sea ice, temperature,

humidity, etc

• Improve parameterizations

•No results yet…

DAMOCLES:

Sensitivity studies using 1-D Arctic models

•Coupled 1-D atmosphere-ice-ocean model

•Complement to 3-D model studies

•Sensitivity studies:

• Explore parameter spaces over wide ranges

• Meltponds

Future activities

•Continuation of Climate Moniroring SAF

•Continuation of DAMOCLES

•Expression of Intent #113: ”High resolution data assimilation,

modelling and reanalysis for the Arctic (A reanalysis of the IPY)”

•Expression of Intent #154: ”The Study of Short-Term Arctic Sea

Ice Predictability: Sea ice forecast research in support of

International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG) requirements

(IICWG – Sea Ice Forecast Research)”

•No funding yet…