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Seizing Global Markets by Predicting and Profiting from Disruptive Innovation
Dr David Ellison Association for Strategic Planning 2015 National Conference
2015/05/08
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 1
How do you predict the future?
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 2
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
Alan Kay
(inventor of Object Oriented Programming)
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 3
“To hell with circumstances;I create opportunities.
Bruce Lee
(Hong Kong action film actor, philosopher)
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 4
How do you invent the future?
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“How do you invent the future?Like everything else.
Dr David Ellison
(international trade consultant, self-quoter)
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 6
How to invent in science
Fundamental Research
Understand
Translational Research
Apply
vs
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 7
If only I knew...
magic“one hit wonder”
breakthrough“you just got lucky”
hobby“waste of time”
thought-provoking“speculative”T
ran
sla
tio
na
l Re
sea
rch
Lo
w
Hig
h
Low HighFundamental Research
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How to invent anything
Principles
GeneralLong-term
Techniques
SpecificShort-term
vs
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 9
“The point of poweris always in thepresent momentLouise L Hay
American motivational author
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 10
How to lead
Character
GeneralLong-term
Techniques
SpecificShort-term
vs
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 11
Character leadership
Which characteristics are necessary in a leader?
Is it situational?
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 12
Leadership Techniques
How important are techniques to leaders?
What techniques are most necessary for leaders today?
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How to invent in business
Long-term
Management paradigms
Competitive Advantage
Market shifts
Short-term
Management practices
Competitive Edge
Market trends
vs
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 14
“Trends foretell the future.
Dr David Ellison
(business coach, self quoter x2)
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“Ideas shape the course of history.
John Maynard Keynes
(British economist)
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How can trends change the business world?
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High-profile examples
Western Union - No to telephoneAT&T - No to cell phones (till 1990’s)
Digital - No to PCsSony - No to MP3/iPod
American Auto Industry - No to small carsKodak - No to digital cameras
(from Using Theories of Innovation to See What’s Next)
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“I intend to live forever.So far, so good.Steven Wright
(American Comedian)
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How do you see trends?
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“You can’t wait for inspiration; you have to go after it with a club.
Jack London
(American author, Call of the Wild)
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 21
Trend principles
Explorer
Seed
Be an:
Look for:
Simplifier
Growth
Curator
Impact
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What is groundswell?
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How do you see international trends?
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THINK: Prioritize Risk
3
4
21
BrandCyber
Supply Chain
Regulatory
PLACE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY IN THE CONTEXT OF KNOWN HISTORICAL AND CURRENT RISKS
?
?
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PLAN: Anticipate Change
China
20%
25%Germany
40%United States
15%Brasil
BASELINE RISKS TO ANTICIPATE CHANGE
Geo
grap
hy
Time
RISK
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ACT: Intelligence-Driven Mitigation Strategies
CONTINUOUS MONITORING OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
RISKS
STRATEGY
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What trends will change your business?
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 28
Rules of the Game
You have to know the industry so I can ask good questions
You have to be willing and able to take actionYou have to accept me making stupid
suggestionsEveryone is here to help, this in not the
“Dr David” show© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 29
Thank you
Dr David Ellison703-644-4557
[email protected]://gov-relations.com
© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 30
