8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

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8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

2/18

ON TODAYS SHOW

AROUND THE GROUNDS OVERNIGHT, THIS WEEK

WRAP OF THE WEEK IN MARKETSWHO WON, WHO LOST

UKRAINE AND CHINABLACK SWANS

A TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE S&P 500, THE USD DOLLAR, THE NIKKEI, YEN AND THE AUSSI

KEY EVENTS IN THE WEEK AHEAD

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

3/18

AROUND THE GROUNDS - STOCKS

Stocks Weekly Change This Week Last WeekDow 1.04% 16,322 16,154

S&P 1.09% 1,859 1,839

FTSE 2.19% 6,810 6,664

Nikkei 3.69% 14,841 14,313

Shanghai -2.84% 2,056 2,116

ASX 200 -0.45% 5,357 5,381

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

4/18

AROUND THE GROUNDSGLOBAL F

Global FX Weekly Change This Week Last Week

EURUSD 0.64% 1.3784 1.3697

USDJPY -0.37% 101.37 101.75

GBPUSD -0.11% 1.6735 1.6754

AUDUSD -1.65% 0.8903 0.9052

USD Index 0.00% 80.15 80.15

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

5/18

AROUND THE GROUNDS - COMMODITIE

Commodities Weekly Change This Week Last WeeGold 1.03% 1,337.00$ 1,323$

Nymex Crude 3.85% 104.49$ 100$

Copper -2.71% 3.23$ 3$

10 year treasuries -3.64% 2.65% 2.75%

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

6/18

THIS WEEKUKRAINE!!!

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

7/18

THE WEEK THAT WAS

WINNERS

The Dow had its best month since Jan 2013.

Selloff? What selloff

Chicago PMI up to 59.8

Australian Economytension knocking

dollar

LOSERS

Ukrainian Citizens

Global Stability

US status as Global Super Power

Global Economy data flow worsen

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13

Citibank Eco Su

Source: Bloomberg, globalfx.com.au

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

8/18

RUSSIA, UKRAINE ANDTHE WESTLOVE CROSSED

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

9/18

YOU KNEW THIS

We are not alone in this confrontation with Russia.

In 1994 Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum with the U.S., UK and Russia guaranteein

security in exchange for giving up our nuclear arsenal. Russia today is flagrantly violating i

obligations and invading our territory.

But I'm confident that the United States and Great Britain will never violate this Memorandu

do everything they can to ensure peace in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin knows that by declaring war on us, he is declaring war on the guarantors of o

the U.S. and Great Britain. I don't think that Russia will cross this line, because if it does it wi

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

10/18

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

25/02/2014 18/02/2014

Change

High last 6

months

Low last 6

months

AUD -38991 -44398 5407 -22111 -71506

EUR 13,900 8,599 5301 72,434 -13,610

JPY -85090 -79784 -5306 -57097 -143822

GBP 28802 22323 6479 28802 -43046

NZD 10982 8906 2076 13114 -797CAD -58591 -65000 6409 -955 -70327

CHF 358 -2828 3186 11998 -2941

Net Long Position

CFTC Commitment of Traders - Speculators

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

11/18

S&P 500 WEEKLY

WHAT A MARKETMAYBE GRAVITY WILL WIN

AN OSCAR BUT THE S&P IS DEFYING IT

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

12/18

EUROGRAVITY?

GLAD I DONT LISTEN TO RHETORIC ON EURO

OTHERWISE I WOULD BE GETTING KILLED

IS IT TIME TO SHORT NOW THOUGH???

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

13/18

AUSSIE DOLLARTRYING

ROLLING OVER

A BREAK OF 0.8860 DECISIVE

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

14/18

NIKKEIFOUNDSUPPORT

MESSY AT RESISTANCE

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15/18

YENROLLING OVER

LAST WEEK

A BREAK WOULD BE HUGE

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

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YENROLLING OVER

100 NOW THE BIG LEVEL TO WATCH

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A BIG BREAK IF IT L ASTS

A DAY OR TWO

97 THE TARGET

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

17/18

GOLDDOH!

I GOT OUT TOO EARLY IT SEEMS

8/12/2019 20140303 - Btfd Asian Wrap

18/18

WEEK AHEADITS GOING TO BE HU

Crimean Standoff

MARKIT PMIs all over the place today.

The RBA tomorrow, then retail sales, trade data, Australian GDP and a speech from Gl

to wrap up the week in Oz.

Offshore we have non-farms at the end of the week, Euro GDP and Draghi talking mid w

with BoC, ECB and BoE meetings