MSB Housing Needs Assessment Overview

By: Joshua Allen, MPAMSB Planner II

March 24, 2015Joint MSB Assembly & Planning Commission Meeting

MSB Population

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 & Over

4200 2100 0 2100 4200

3,594

3,225

4,153

3,621

2,701

3,053

2,908

3,238

2,999

3,645

3,768

3,362

2,316

1,447

1,016

660

314

152

3,213

3,244

3,647

3,383

2,461

2,784

2,866

2,928

3,015

3,395

3,496

2,991

2,132

1,224

1,012

601

447

308

2012 Population: 89,319

Male Female

Baby Boomers

1943-196220,736

(23.2%)

Gen X1963-1982

24,994 (37.9%)

Millennial1983-2002

25,803 (28.8%)

Gen Z2003-Present

13,276 (14.8%)

Silent Generati

on1925-19424,510 (5%)

And Still Growing!Current = 98,0632020 = 125,0002030 = 165,000

1996

Memory Lake

Seldon Rd

Wasilla

-Fishhoo

k Rd

Schrock Rd

Chu

rch

Rd

Pittman Rd

Spruce Rd

2012

Household Change

1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 20300%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

316 917 2,539 4,183 7,106 10,500 14,500

476 1,5733,888

6,48610,659

15,50021,000

2601,115

2,3653,479

5,2387,000 8,000

240

1,1042,515

3,463 4,444 5,500 6,500237

574 1,287 1,710 2,396 3,000 3,800162

258 514 715 1,112 1,500 2,000138170 286 520 869 1,250 1,800

7 or more persons 6 Persons 5 Persons 4 Persons 3 Persons 2 Persons 1 Person

Average Size3.4 3.06 2.9 2.84 2.75 2.65 2.55

Household Change

1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 20300%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

372 1,204 3,200 5,499 9,245 13,500 19,000

1,469 4,495 10,301 15,057 22,579 30,500 40,000

Family Households Nonfamily Households

Senior (65+) Households ?

1970 Census

1980 Census

1990 Census

2000 Census

2010 Census

2020 20300%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

189

552 1,16

0

2,58

7

5,28

7

8,50

0

12,5

00

1,65

1

5,15

9

12,3

41

17,9

65

26,5

37

35,5

00

49,5

00

Moderate Growth

Senior Households Households

1970 Census

1980 Census

1990 Census

2000 Census

2010 Census

2020 20300%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

189

552 1,16

0

2,58

7

5,28

7 13,0

00 30,0

00

1,65

1

5,15

9

12,3

41

17,9

65

26,5

37 35,5

00 49,5

00

Fast Growth

Senior Households Households

Affordable Housing Income Spectrum Extremely Very Low Low Median Low Income Income Income Income

Young Skilled

Workers

Homeless Singles & Couples

Single Parents & Children

Seniors & Disabled

Working Poor Young

Professionals

Essential or

Service Workers

Work Force Housing

30% 50% 60% 80% 100% 120% Household Median Income

1 Person: $55,0002 Person: $62,8003 Person: $70,7004 Person: $78,500

Less than $10,000

$10,000 to $14,999

$15,000 to $24,999

$25,000 to $34,999

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

$75,000 to $99,999

$100,000 to $149,999

$150,000 to $199,999

$200,000 or more

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

MSB Household Income Distribution

Hou

seho

lds

Source: US Census 2013 ACS 5-yr Estimate

Median Incomes

Extr.

Low 17%

Very

Low 16%

Low 19%

Above

Low 48%

Nonfamily Households

Extr.

Low 5%

Very

Low 5%

Low 12%

Above

Low 78%

Family Households

77% of the Housing Supply!

Total Units: 35,021Total Parcels: 29,924Total Acres: 81,092

Average Acreage: 2.71Unit Density Per Acre: 0.43

Average Units Per Parcel: 1.17Average Acreage Per Unit: 2.32

Single Family 81.81%

Mobile Home3.82%

Duplex 3.49%

Multifamily 9.55%

Group Quar-ters

0.32%Mobile

Home Park 1.01%

Housing Supply

1990 2000 2010 2020 20300%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

9,82116,218 24,181 34,000 45,000

3,573

4,338 7,64313,500 22,0004,479

5,244 6,8239,200 12,400

7,5596,773 9,505 9,500 14,500

Owner Occuppied Renter Occupied Seasonal & Recreational Vacant

Projected housing shortage if development remains unchanged! Population Needs Meet Average Vacancy Projected Built Shortage 2020: 47,170 units 57,768 units 53,000 units 4,500+ units 2030: 64,706 units 79,244 units 70,000 units 9,000+ units

Cost Trends

$$$Household Income

2009Family: $65,600

Nonfamily: $51,000

2014 Family: $65,070**

Nonfamily: $49,843**

Flat-lined & Declining

**Adjusted for inflation in 2009 Dollars w/US Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator

2009Average Sales Price

$212,594

2014Average Sales Price

$212,454**

Keeping up with Inflation

Home Sales

2009Average Rent

$806

2014Average Rent

$922**

Exceeding Inflation!

Rentals

Average Rental vs. Buying900’/sq 2 bedroom 1 bath

Knik-Goosebay Rd.

Rent

Source: Zillow

Buy

Rental Cost$975/mo + $200 Utilities

Total: $1,175/mo

Income Considered Affordable$23/hr or $48,000/yr

900’/sq 2 bedroom 1 bathNeil Circle

20yr Mortgage Cost @ 4%Payment: $667/mo Utilities: $200/moInsurance: $67/mo

Taxes: $110/moPMI: $90

Total: $1,134/moIncome Considered Affordable

$21/hr or $44,000/yr

Rental AffordabilityRental costs greater than 30% = Housing Affordability Problem

$975/mo + $200 Utilities $1,500/mo + $300 Utilities

Median Income

Low Income(80% Median)

Very Low Income(50% Median)

Extremely Low Income - Poverty(30% Median)

Average Rentals

Nonfamily HouseholdsFamily Households

Unmet Housing Needs29% of Population!

Unmet Needs4,659 Households

(34%)Needs Met

9,245 Households(66%)

Needs Met22,579 Households

(83%)

Unmet Needs4,604 Households

(17%)

Needs Met67,975 Peo-

ple(76%)

Family15,194 Peo-

ple(17%)

Nonfamily6,150 People

(7%)

511Units = 1% Targeted @ Low Income

Importance of Affordable Housing

&

$$$$$$

High Housin

g

Costs

Local Economic Growth$$$$$ $$$$$

Jobs!

The Current Situation

Future Considerations

Conclusion

Nonfamily Family

$$$RentalsOwnership

Questions?

Thank You!

For More Info Contact: Joshua Allen, MSB Planner II

350 E. Dahlia Ave. Palmer, AK 99645

(907)861-8514joshua.allen@matsugov.us