2014 Fire Season Considerations and Outlook

SWCC Predictive Services

Updated May 13, 2014

Seasonal Fire Potential Main Factors

1. Drought

2. Fine Fuels Condition

3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation

4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns

5. Monsoon

Quick Look Back:

2013 Outlook vs. Significant

Fires

Difficult to gauge without a better sense of what ‘Normal’ is, but at least seeing most of the big fires in the red and relatively few elsewhere.

ALWAYS A WORK IN PROGRESS!

Fire Season 2014: Drought

Severe+ long term drought still ongoing across much of the region

Drought outlook calls for drought to persist, develop or worsen through the summer most areas…except to potentially improve for western NM

Long term drought impacts now semi-permanent in our outlook methodology

Best we can hope for is temporary mitigation of drought impacts with any wetter periods

“Increased severity & volatility during fire season”

Fire Season 2014: Fine Fuels

Substantial periods of above normal precipitation existed across most of the area during monsoon season 2013 to drive warm-season fine fuels growth.

Fine fuel loading and continuity is normal to above normal in general area-wide, in contrast to recent years.

Areas & periods of spring green-up have complicated, and somewhat reduced, the contribution of fine herbaceous fuels towards fire potential.

If/when the fine fuels cure entirely, there will be generally continuous and abundant fine fuels to contribute to fire behavior and spread.

JUN JUL AUG SEP

Fire Season 2014: DEC-FEB 2014

Temperature & Precipitation

Dry, with warmth west and coolness east.

Snowpack below normal. Ongoing dryness a likely contributor

to the ongoing and expected drought conditions shown previously.

TEMP

PRECIP

Fire Season 2014: MAR-APR 2014

Temperature & Precipitation High variability! Temperatures near normal, with

warm tilt west and cooler tilt east Periods/areas of above normal

precipitation mainly impacting fine fuels green-up…but still overall drier than normal for the area.

MAR-APRTEMP

MARCHPRECIP

APRILPRECIP

Fire Season 2014: MAY – 1st Half

Temperature & Precipitation Highly variable temperatures, but

averaging generally near to below normal most areas

Dry, with some sparse precipitation.

Cooler/more stable/higher humidity conditions following windy/dry periods.

Localized fine fuels green-up (or re-green).

TEMP

PRECIP

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UPPER LEVEL PATTERN – END OF 1st WEEK OF MAY 2014

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Fire Season 2014: MAY – 2nd Half

Temperature & Precipitation Outlook Active trough pattern will maintain

changeable fire weather conditions Warmer/drier, followed by

windy/dry, followed by much cooler with elevated RH and areas of precipitation...REPEAT!

Not much sustained alignment of critical fire weather conditions

TEMP

PRECIP

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L

LH

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FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN – MAY 21-22, 2014

All Told: The month of MAY should come out with below normal rainfall most areas and near to below normal temps

H

Fire Season 2014: Late Spring & Early Summer

Large-scale Weather Pattern

Excessive heat likely limited, with trend for near to below normal temperatures

Some periodic rainfall impacts north and especially east of the divide as the season progresses, along with increased lightning chances. Driest southern AZ/southwest NM.

1L

L

H

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Weekly time series of potential upper level pattern for late MAY>late JUNE (#’s 1>4) shows upper trough over or near the Southwest much of the time.

This largely supports a continuance of May weather variability through much of June

Continued minimal sustained alignment of critical fire weather conditions

Fire Season 2014: Monsoon

Shift towards El Niño aiding a pattern featuring a weak eastern Pacific trough and weakened monsoon ridge over the Southwest. This would weaken the monsoon circulation and possibly allow weak systems to move in from the west.

Week 1/Week 2 examples (right) show evolution of monsoon ridge being broken down by trough approaching from the west. This could occur several times this summer.

JULY-SEPT 2014?

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Week 1 – Large Scale Pattern Example

Week 2 – Large Scale Pattern Example

Fire Season 2014: Monsoon Rainfall?

Outlook Impacts:

Rainfall: Closer to normal for much of the eastern half of the area, and potentially below normal rainfall for the west

Temperatures: Trending near to above normal, with warmer temperatures in the persistently drier areas.

Substantial uncertainty and month-to-month variability, and this perspective doesn’t include any significant rainfall which might occur in June.

JULY-SEPT 2014 – Possible Rainfall Relative to Average

DRY MOIST

2014 Fire Season Factors Summary

1. Drought – Severe+ long-term drought impacting most of the area through fire season, with some potential improvement western NM. Increased severity & volatility overall, especially in heavier dead & live woody fuels with multi-year cumulative impacts.

2. *Fine Fuels Condition – Normal/above normal loading & continuity overall. Mosaic of green-up/re-green will be an ongoing complicating factor.

3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation – Averaging out warmer & drier than normal most areas, but with significant variability through spring.

4. *Spring & early Summer Weather Pattern – Pattern supports highly variable temperature & moisture conditions with limited, sustained critical fire weather conditions & the increased potential for some rainfall east of the continental divide.

5. Monsoon – Trending potentially drier than normal west of the divide, especially in late July>August, but still huge uncertainty (and dependency on late spring conditions as well)

Fire Season 2014: Combined Fire Potential Factors

1. Drought

2. Fine Fuels Condition

3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation

4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns

5. Monsoon (not included)

Only factors which would support above normal fire potential are highlighted.

A more complex/dynamic alignment of factors than some recent years.

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Fire Season 2014: Number of Factors Aligning to Support Above Normal Seasonal

Fire Potential

1. Drought

2. Fine Fuels Condition

3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation

4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns

5. Monsoon

Monsoon factor excluded due to lack of any anomaly signal, so these numbers represent total out of first 4 factors.

Substantial uncertainty as to whether these factors will align at the same time, which is necessary for this perspective to be meaningful.

2-3

2

2-3

2-3

3-4

3-4

2

2

2

1-2

2

232

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2014 Fire Season Potential Summary

Through June: Above Normal fire potential focused central/southeast AZ into southwest NM west of the continental divide. (Drought impacts on heavy & live woody fuels, available fine fuels, max potential for warmth, wind & dryness initially…then an increasing lightning threat in June.)

July/August: Initial monsoon onset, then potential for fire potential to increase west of the divide from late July>August.

Overall Monsoon: Trending dry west & moist east, but with possible significant rainfall increase in SEP.

Deciding Factor(s): Ongoing variability in weather patterns and temperature/moisture impacts, including fine fuels condition. Will it get hot enough to expose long-term drought impacts and also trigger a decent monsoon?

2014 Fire Season Potential: Messages

Due to weather variability, fire activity is more likely to be especially episodic this fire season – with significant activity clustered around a relatively few amount of days when all the factors align.

The peak and lull nature of the season could be especially challenging with regard to maintaining situational awareness and avoiding complacency. When conditions align, we will see advanced fire behavior!

DUE TO LONG TERM DROUGHT: WATCH FOR RAPID DRYING AFTER ANY MOISTURE IMPACTS…OUTSIDE OUR TYPICAL HISTORIC FRAME OF REFERENCE!

ENDSWCC Predictive Services

Next Update: January 2015!

Contact: SWCC Predictive Services505-842-3473

Consult the Outlooks Page (Below) for Updated Information Through Fire Season:http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm