2013 update to phasing of development and infrastructure requirements in the Nine Elms Vauxhall Area

Prepared for

Nine Elms Vauxhall Strategy Board

March 2014

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Contents 1 Executive summary 3 2 Introduction 5 3 Building a profile of delivery 15 4 Phasing of development 20 5 Income analysis 30 6 Timing of infrastructure requirements and funding 45 7 Summary and conclusions 60

Appendices Appendix 1 Indicative estimate of health care requirements Appendix 2 Landowner questionnaire Appendix 3 Commercial and residential floorspace by scheme Appendix 4 NEV maps analysing population growth in Scenario 2 Appendix 5 Assumptions applied to individual sites for each scenario Appendix 6 Tables and graphs showing analysis of income

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1 Executive summary The London Plan identifies the Nine Elms Vauxhall (NEV) area as an Opportunity Area (OA) capable of delivering 16,000 new homes and 500,000 sq m of employment space. A ‘Development Infrastructure Funding Study’ produced in 2010 identifies the infrastructure that will be required to support this quantum of development; the funding required; and how the funding could be secured through a tariff on new developments.

This study builds on the Phasing and Investment work undertaken by BNP Paribas Real Estate in 2011-2012 and in the DIFS study by providing an update on the likely phasing of NEV OA developments and the related issues of the timing of infrastructure and the income that has been secured from the NEV tariff and the two councils’ adopted and emerging Community Infrastructure Levy (‘CIL’) charging schedules. The study identifies that the OA is likely to generate significantly more homes than originally envisaged in the London Plan, with a total of 18,000 homes. This increase in housing provision will generate more revenue to fund infrastructure, but will itself increase demands for key social infrastructure.

The study identifies four phasing scenarios, the first of which is based on landowners’ current anticipated timescales for their developments, which updates the information adopted in Phasing Scenario 1 of the 2012 Phasing and Infrastructure study. The following three phasing scenarios build on the information provided by the landowners’, but adopt varying assumptions on potential smoothing to the absorption rate and delays to the delivery of schemes. This study identifies that market sentiment has improved markedly since the last study was undertaken. Consequently, landowners indicate that they anticipate both an increased level of development and faster absorption rate, potentially linked to the successful launch of the first phase of the Battersea Power Station development in Q1 of 2013. The fourth Phasing Scenario assumes a conservative position with respect to the phasing of delivery allowing for the largest number delays and smoothing of the absorption units by comparison to the ‘raw data’ provided in Phasing Scenario 1. For the purpose of this study the two councils and Transport for London (‘TfL’) agreed that Phasing Scenario 2 would be adopted to calculate the planning requirements (i.e. population calculations and infrastructure requirements etc.) whilst Phasing Scenario 4 was considered to be the appropriate delivery upon which to calculate the income likely to be secured from development towards the Northern Line Extension (NLE).

We then consider the timing of infrastructure, based on Phasing Scenario 2 and plot these requirements against likely flows of tariff, Section 106 and Borough CIL income derived from Phasing Scenario 4. On the basis of initial estimates of the amounts required for health, education and other infrastructure requirements, it is likely that there will be sufficient income after payments for NLE are deducted. However, the stakeholders will need to consider how short terms needs are met to address a significant population increase anticipated in 2016. Tax Increment Financing may play a role in addressing these cashflow issues subject to the establishment on an Enterprise Zone for the Area. It is also important to note that estimates of health care requirements are to be updated in 2014 following release of further 2011 Census data.

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The 2010 DIFS study for the Opportunity Area indicated that the infrastructure tariff would need to increase in 2016. The Boroughs will therefore need to consider increasing their CIL charging schedules to align with the enhanced levels of tariff from 2016 onwards, subject to viability.

The study recognises that the trajectory of development (and the infrastructure requirements that flow from this) is a snapshot based on current expectations of market conditions. Timescales for delivery could shift significantly over time. We therefore recommend that the Strategy Board re-visits the phasing and infrastructure requirements at regular intervals, as and when more detailed information becomes available, or when major changes occur.

It should be noted that the figures used in the study reflect current day values for CIL and Mayoral CIL calculations and agreed S106 figures reflect the sums as set out in the completed S106 agreements. In practice all figures would be index linked and in this regard there is scope for these figures to be slightly higher than those identified in this report.

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2 Introduction

2.1 Background

The London Plan identifies the Vauxhall Nine Elms Battersea, now referred to a Nine Elms Vauxhall (‘NEV’) as an Opportunity Area which is capable of delivering:

■ 16,000 new homes;

■ 300,000 sqm of employment space at Battersea Power Station (60,000 sqm of retail; 160,000 sqm offices and 80,000 sqm of other employment uses); and

■ 200,000 sqm of mixed employment use on other sites.

These objectives are set out in the ‘Vauxhall Nine Elms Battersea Opportunity Area Planning Framework’ (‘OAPF’) produced by the Greater London Authority (‘GLA’) with the support of Wandsworth and Lambeth Councils.

The GLA commissioned Roger Tym and Partners, Peter Brett Associates and GVA Grimley to undertake a ‘Development Infrastructure Funding Study’ (‘DIFS’) of the area, which reported in October 2010. The study detailed the infrastructure which would be required to support the quantum of development proposed; the funding required to support the delivery of that infrastructure; and how the funding could be secured.

The DIFS indicated that, subject to resolving a relatively modest funding gap (£55m - £77m), providing the funding to support the infrastructure should be feasible. However, the report identified that there are likely to be significant cash flow issues which will need to be addressed in order to support the delivery of infrastructure. Since the DIFS was completed, further information has become available on the proposed implementation and phasing of a number of major developments in the area.

The number of dwellings and non-residential floorspace in this report reflect the responses of developers received in the first half of 2013. The figures have not been updated to reflect subsequent applications or permissions, e.g. the changes in the allocation of floorspace at Battersea Power Station.

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Figure 2.1.1: Nine Elms Vauxhall Opportunity Area

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In order to manage and co-ordinate the development of the area, key stakeholders have established a NEV Strategy Board. Membership of the Board includes Wandsworth and Lambeth Councils, the Greater London Authority, Transport for London, the Homes and Communities Agency and major landowners in the area. This study was commissioned by Wandsworth Council on behalf of the Strategy Board. Its main purpose is to take forward the work of the DIFS and further inform the decisions which will need to be taken in relation to investment. The Strategy Board is particularly interested in

■ the potential forms of public sector investment;

■ cashflow issues;

■ implementation and phasing of development;

■ the delivery of infrastructure critical to the success of the area, including the Northern Line Extension;

■ other transport improvements including additional bus capacity

■ improvements to Battersea Park Station and Vauxhall Gyratory; and

■ delivery of affordable housing and community infrastructure, including new schools and health facilities.

In 2011 the Strategy Board commissioned BNP Paribas Real Estate to undertake a study to contribute to ensuring that the main issues in relation to the phasing of NEV development and the related issues of cashflow and gap funding identified in the DIFS were more fully understood. The study also sought address how financing issues might be addressed and in turn to inform the role the Boroughs, the HCA and registered provider partners could play in investing in or contributing to the NEV.

From the outset this work was intended to be an on-going assessment of the progress and requirements of the development planned of the area to ensure the informed and most efficient delivery of the regeneration of the NEV including the on-going assessment of the requirement/delivery of infrastructure

2.2 Study objectives

It is clear that there are significant challenges to development in the NEV, but also that there is significant potential for value capture and reinvestment over time. This study builds on the work undertaken by BNP Paribas Real Estate in the 2012 Phasing and investment Study as well as that undertaken as part of the DIFS. This update report seeks to address the following objectives:

1. gather up-to-date information from landowners/developers on their current proposals for the timing of implementation and phasing of their developments;

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2. evaluate issues that result from the landowners’ phasing proposals in terms of the market’s ability to absorb the units in a way that maintains values, and where necessary, indicating any amendments to phasing to ensure market viability;

3. identify the phasing of the infrastructure required to support development, based on the phasing indicated by the landowners (and taking account of any recommended amendments to the rate of delivery). This would include community infrastructure and school places. Determine the associated funding requirement over time;

4. identify any other potential issues arising from developer delivery plans that would impact on infrastructure delivery and assumptions, for example, any issues relating to when services need to be provided to support the new population, and the current phasing of developments which will provide those facilities;

5. assess the latest information on the timing of the likely funding streams, including that to be delivered by the Section 106 Tariff/CIL, taking account of the adopted charging schedules of the Mayor and Wandsworth, as well as the emerging Lambeth CIL Charging Schedule, and recommendations in relation to the timing of tariff/CIL payments arising from the developments.

2.2.1 Evolving requirements

As previously identified, the Project Steering Group concluded that the infrastructure requirements in the area will be more dynamic than was initially envisaged as the timing of infrastructure requirements and funding availability have the potential to change significantly as the landowners start to pro-actively work on their planning applications. This can be seen quite clearly when comparing the results of our 2012 Phasing and Investment study and this update, where the number of residential units projected for the area has increased from circa 16,000 to 18,000. More importantly, the economic uncertainties associated with significant reductions in public expenditure and the sovereign debt crisis in some Eurozone countries which significantly affected the housing market are seen to be starting to ease over the last three quarters of 2013, with emerging signs of market recovery and growth. In light of these issues, the Project Steering Group recognises that all versions of this Study will provide a perspective on the timing of infrastructure requirements at that point in time and are likely to change as the regeneration of the area progresses. Our Phasing Scenarios have been set up to allow for updating as more information becomes available.

2.3 NEV sites

The OAPF identifies 61 sites for development, 36 of which are located within Wandsworth and 25 are located within Lambeth. The major development sites (including Battersea Power Station, Royal Mail sorting office, Battersea Gas Holders, Covent Garden Market and the US Embassy site) are located within Wandsworth. The 25 sites in Lambeth are of a more modest scale. Table 2.3.1 lists the sites within each Borough.

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Table 2.3.1: NEV sites

Wandsworth sites Lambeth sites

Map ref Site name Map ref

Site name Map ref

Site name Map ref

Site name

1 49-59 Battersea Park Road 19 Market Towers 37 1 Wandsworth Road 55 Spring Gardens Railway Arch No 2

2 88 Kirtling Street 20 Metro Greehham 38 2-4 Tinworth Rd, 108-110 Vauxhall Wk 56 St George Tower, Albert Embankment

3 Battersea Gasholders 21 Met Police Warehouse 39 Albert Embankment Arch 57 Texaco Garage, 38-46 Albert Embkt

4 Battersea Power Station 22 Middle Wharf 40 Albert Embankment riverside sites 58 Vauxhall Island site

5 Battersea Studios 23 Milk Depot, 55 Sleaford St 41 Billboard site, Lambeth Road 59 Vauxhall Station Arches

6 Booker Cash and Carry 24 New Covent Gdn Market 42 80 South Lambeth Road 60 Vauxhall Tavern, 372 Kennington Ln

7 Brooks Court 25 New Covent Gdn Market 43 Cobalt Sq (Met Police HQ) 61 Warehouse, Lambeth High St

8 Cable and Wireless 26 New Covent Gdn Market 44 Crnr Wandsworth Rd and Wyvil Rd

9 Christies Auctioneers 27 Operational Land, Cringle St 45 Costa Brewing House

10 Coach Depot, Silverthorne Rd 28 Patcham Terrace 46 Fire Stn, 8 Albert Embankment

11 Cringle Dock 29 Securicor 47 81 Black Prince Road

12 Depot, Kirtling Street 30 Silverthorne Street 48 Hampton House

13 Filling Stn, 2 Battersea Pk Rd 31 Adj 103-125 Battersea Pk Rd 49 Miles St South & Cnr Wandsworth Rd

14 Govt Car Park 32 Sleaford St Industrial Estate 50 MPS Office building, 109 Lambeth Rd

15 Heathwell Pumping Stn 33 Royal Mail Sorting Office 51 Parry St East (Bondway South)

16 Ingate Place 34 Tidbury Ct, Stewarts Road 52 Sainsburys Nine Elms

17 Main Ballymore site 35 Tideway Industrial Estate, Kirtling St 53 South Lambeth Place Bondway North

18 Marco Polo House 36 US Embassy 54 Spring Gardens Railway Arch No 1

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Table 2.3.2: Sites included in study

Wandsworth sites Lambeth sites

Battersea Power Station and Goods Yard, Kirtling Street, SW8 Hampton House 20-22 Albert Embankment

Battersea Gasholders, Prince of Wales Drive, SW8 Prince Consort House -29 Albert Embankment, London, SE1

Marco Polo House, 346 Queenstown Road, SW8 2 -14 Tinworth Street and 108 -110 Vauxhall Walk AKA Spring Mews

Riverlight, Tideway Industrial Estate, Nine Elms, SW8 Island Site Vauxhall Cross

Market Towers, SW8 aka One Nine Elms 9 Bondway & 4-6 South Lambeth Place

Booker Cash and Carry, 41-49 Nine Elms Lane, SW8 and 49-59 Battersea Park Vauxhall Square Cap Gemini Site

Dairy Crest Milk Distribution Depot, 55 Sleaford Street, SW8 Keybridge House and Wyvil Road

Main Site, Ballymore, Ponton Road, SW8 (AKA Embassy Gardens) Nine Elms Sainsbury’s, Wandsworth Road

Cable and Wireless, Ballymore Site 6, Unit 2a, Battersea Park Road, SW8 Land at St George Wharf (Vauxhall Tower)

US Embassy, Nine Elms Lane, SW8 30-60 South Lambeth Road AKA Atlas House

Royal Mail Group Site, Ponton Road, SW8 Eastbury House

Government Car and Dispatch Agency, Ponton Road, SW8 Camelford House / Tintagel House, 87-92 Albert Embankment

Metropolitan Police Warehouse Garage, Ponton Road, SW8 5 and 21 Miles Street

Christies Auctioneers Depot, Ponton Road 143-161 Wandsworth Rd (Sky Gardens)

Covent Garden Market, Nine Elms Lane 10-20 Wyvil Road, SW8 2TG

Patcham Terrace (Network Rail Site) Battersea London Fire Brigade HQ, 8 Albert Embankment;

Securicor Site, 80 Kirtling Street, SW8 81 Black Prince Road (Parliament House);

Brooks Court, Kirtling Street, SW8 10 Albert Embankment (Wah Kwong House);

Tidbury Court, Stewarts Road, SW8 Texaco Garage, 38-46 Albert Embankment;

Lord Clyde, 90 Tyers Street

Bondway Commercial Centre, 69-71 Bondway

Queensborough House

1-18 Rudloph Place (to the rear of 66-70 South Lambeth Road)

10 Pascal Street, London, SW8 4SH

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2.4 Anticipated residential and commercial floorspace

In Table 2.4.1, we summarise the total number of anticipated residential units and commercial floorspace in the NEV.

Table 2.4.1: Residential units and commercial floorspace in NEV

Residential Lambeth Wandsworth VNEB OA

Total No Private units 2,785 12,564 15,349

Total No Affordable units 733 2,190 2,923

Total No Resi units 3,518 14,758 18,276

Hotel beds 1,021 704 1,725

Student beds 1,615 - 1,615

Other residential (including extra care and serviced apartments)

135 34,132 34,267

Commercial (square metres)

A1 retail 14,293 79,064 93,357

A2 financial and professional services 2,500 890 3,390

A3 restaurants and cafes 3,003 15,166 18,169

A4 drinking establishments - 1,365 1,365

B1 offices 54,280 238,063 292,343

B8 storage and distribution - 16,299 16,299

D1 non-residential institutions 6,440 29,327 35,767

D2 assembly and leisure 4,159 23,236 27,395

Other1 7,406 113,121 120,527

Total commercial floorspace 92,081 403,410 608,612

1 Replacement Covent Garden Market (59,983 sq m); Fire Station (2,787 sq m); River bus ticket office at BPS (245 sq m); Energy centre – Sainsbury's (779 sq m); new Underground Station (1,736 sq m); 2,000 sq m Cinema at Vauxhall Square; 104 sq m ‘residents facilities’ at Hampton House; US Embassy (51,350 sq m); Community Uses at Embassy Gardens (1,543 sq m) and other uses not yet defined.

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2.5 Early planning activity Within Wandsworth the Council has granted planning consent for a majority of the large sites, including Riverlight (formerly the Tideway Industrial Estate), American Embassy, Battersea Power Station (‘BPS’), Royal Mail, Marco Polo House, Embassy Gardens and New Covent Garden Market (‘NCGM’) sites and have signed Section 106 Agreements. Over the past year, both St James (Riverlight) and BPS have submitted applications to amend their proposed developments. In addition, we are aware that a new scheme comprising a much larger number of residential units is being developed for the NCGM site, which is due to be submitted in 2014. The questionnaire submitted by NCGM’s agents is based on the most recent proposals for the development of the site. Within Lambeth a number of sites benefit from planning consents, including the Sainsbury’s site (Wandsworth Road); Vauxhall Cross Island site; CLS site; Parliament House (81 Black Price Road); Wah Kwong House (10 Albert Embankment); Hampton House (20 Albert Embankment); Prince Consort House and Vauxhall Sky Gardens (143-161 Wandsworth Road). The Tower, One St George Wharf, the final phase of the St George Wharf development is also currently under construction, scheduled for completion in 2014. Schemes that are currently under consideration include Keybridge House.

2.6 Infrastructure requirements

The DIFS sets out the infrastructure required to support the new development planned for the NEV area, including education, healthcare, transport requirements including buses and improvements to stations, including Battersea Park.

Appendix 1 shows the cumulative and periodic costs of healthcare requirements associated with the additional population in the area resulting from new developments based on current population estimates. The tables identify both capital and revenue costs anticipated by the NHS. Capital costs are anticipated to be approximately £20.6m which excludes land and build costs (based on the assumption that any new space will be provided as ‘shell and core’). Revenue costs are approximately £114.5 million, which comprises delayed capitation funding (£110.7m) for commissioning additional primary and secondary healthcare services for the rapidly growing population in the area and new estate operating costs (£3.8 m), covering rent, capital charges, rates and service charges. It should be noted that the DIFS report assumes that S106 and CIL funding will only be used to contribute to capital costs, and that revenue costs will need to be absorbed by the providing bodies. The delayed increase in capitation funding by about 5 years means that the local healthcare economy would need to bear the cost of commissioning healthcare services used by the new residents without any increase in resources from central funds. During that period the local health economy has to provide premises for these additional services to meet new demands. Operating costs are not properly absorbed until the whole population associated with a particular site has taken up residence. The time lag between new residents moving in and the health economy receiving additional funding for their healthcare is likely to put pressure on existing services. Consideration will need to be given

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by the NHS to fund local health services which may require temporary financial support for additional revenue funding to ensure that services can be expanded to meet newly arising needs.

The development of new healthcare services is planned to be brought forward in three phases, with capital costs being incurred close to the beginning of each phase so that additional capacity which is available to meet needs in full by the end of that phase. The NHS is currently working to confirm the point at which local services can no longer absorb any additional demand for services in the absence of interim investment. We are advised that the NHS currently anticipate that this point will be reached by 2015. They have estimated that additional investment will be required in 2017 to enable sufficient capacity to be developed to absorb population growth. The last tranche of additional capacity needs to be made available in 2022 to meet the housing uptake through the third five year period and beyond. An indicative estimate of health care requirements is attached as Appendix 1. The NHS have advised that the interim 2015 requirement is based on an assumption that 630 square metres of additional floorspace will be required by 2015 because existing practices can absorb only 1,000 - 4,000 patients. Whilst these figures are based on the best available data they should be regarded with caution. In this respect, it should be noted that the NHS are due to refresh estimates of health care requirements in 2014 following release of 2011 Census data. This in turn is intended to inform the production of a commissioning strategy which will be the basis for further discussions on funding with NHS England, the Strategy Board and as appropriate the two Councils who are in receipt of tariff and CIL funding. The level of capital requirements is dependent on landlords providing “shell and core” facilities at the appropriate points in time. Should alternative methods of procurement of the health facilities be required the capital figure may be adjusted to cover the changed arrangements.

Given that there is still a degree of uncertainty around the requirements of new residents in the area, it is not clear at this stage whether health requirements will have increased since the previous Phasing Study was completed. Although the number of residential units has increased, this does not automatically result in additional healthcare requirements, if (for example) the composition of the residents who purchase units has changed. There is, however, considered to be a requirement for temporary health accommodation by 2016. With regards to education provision, the sites for new schools may also not be available in time so the boroughs may have to make provision by extending existing schools inside and just outside the NEV area. The cost of expanding an existing school in each borough by one form of entry, is estimated to be £3m per school. The boroughs will need to consider the changes proposed by developers in schemes as this could change the need for infrastructure timing. Earlier than anticipated delivery of units could mean that temporary solutions may need to be expanded to meet additional demand.

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The current position overall is that contributions from developers will be used towards the capital costs of community infrastructure only, where other funding sources are not sufficient or available. There is no provision made for revenue costs to be funded on either a temporary or permanent basis for social infrastructure and organisations will need to access other sources of funding to meet these requirements.

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3 Building a profile of delivery 3.1 Landowner questionnaire

An updated version of the 2011 questionnaire was distributed to all landowners to collect information to enable the councils to build a picture of anticipated timescales for delivery of residential and commercial floorspace across the NEV. A copy of the questionnaire is attached as Appendix 2. Landowners were briefed on the benefits of collecting this information both for the local authorities (i.e. to identify the timing of requirements for community and transport infrastructure and the timing of likely receipts from NEV tariff/CIL payments so that timely delivery could be planned for and any shortfalls in funding addressed) and for themselves (i.e. to ensure that the infrastructure required to support their developments is available at the appropriate time which will assist in the saleability of the units and to highlight any periods where development of units might exceed the market’s ability to absorb supply without adversely affecting value).

3.2 Phasing of developments

At this stage schemes are at different stages in the planning process and as such there is a varying level of information available on the sites. Some schemes have achieved planning consent and consequently have in place detailed phasing plans. This is compared to sites where applications are in outline only, or part-outline and part detailed and others still which are not even at application stage as yet. It is also important to recognise that on single phase schemes, the sales rate and the speed of absorption of different unit types will depend upon market conditions and marketing campaigns.

When completing the questionnaire, landowners were asked to exercise their judgement to predict the likely phasing of their developments. The responses therefore have to be viewed in this context and different types of landowners might be better placed to provide accurate predictions than others. For example, developer landowners are likely to be better placed to ‘read’ the market and provide a more accurate prediction on timing of their developments than other types of landowners. Non-developer landowners might need to secure vacant possession of their sites (if they are not the occupier) and then dispose of the site to a developer. There could be a significant variance between the length of time these processes are expected to take and the actual time taken.

It has been identified by the developer/landowner questionnaire responses that confidence in the market has improved since the last study was undertaken, particularly in light of the success of the first units to be offered on the Battersea Power Station site in Q1 of 2013, and as a result a more bullish view of take up of units has been taken put forward in the 2013 questionnaires.

3.3 Scheme composition

With many of the landowners only seeking outline planning permission and many more not yet at the planning stage, scheme composition (in terms of mix of residential units and commercial uses) is still evolving. Inevitably the quantum of development

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and the mix of uses that is eventually constructed may be different. Landowners were therefore requested to adopt a mid point between the following mixes:

■ a mix that generates the biggest number of larger units (but the smallest number of units overall) and

■ a mix that generates the biggest number of small units (and therefore generates the maximum number of units overall),

while taking account of the relevant Council’s policy on unit mix, density, etc.

3.4 Level and phasing of affordable housing

Where a scheme had not secured planning consent, landowners were asked to assume a level of affordable housing in line with the relevant Council’s approach for the NEV, i.e. 15% in Wandsworth with 70% rented and 30% intermediate housing or 40% in Lambeth with 70% rented and 30% intermediate housing.

Triggers for the delivery of affordable housing are typically agreed as part of the Section 106 negotiations, so many landowners had not yet established delivery triggers for their sites. If landowners had not yet established the triggers for their sites, they were asked to have regard to the relevant Council’s position, e.g. Wandsworth standard S106 agreements require that all the affordable housing is delivered prior to sale of 70% of the market housing (without prejudice to any future negotiations); while Lambeth would seek affordable housing delivery prior to 50% of market housing sales (without prejudice to any future negotiations). On multiple phase schemes, the landowners were advised to assume that the councils are likely to seek delivery of affordable housing in most phases.

3.5 The structure of the questionnaire

A sample questionnaire is attached as Appendix 2. It was distributed as a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, containing two sheets, titled ‘Questionnaire’ and ‘Development Phasing’.

3.5.1 Sheet 1 – Questionnaire

This sheet provides spaces for basic information about the status of the owner (i.e. developer, landowner etc) and site details (site name and address).

Landowners were asked to enter a known or estimated number of residential units and a known or estimated of commercial and other floorspace. Landowners were requested to break down the total number of residential units by unit type and by tenure (private, affordable rented and intermediate). We requested that the affordable housing percentage should have regard to the councils’ policy requirements, subject to viability. Landowners were asked exercise their own judgement on the overall percentage of affordable housing in their scheme if this had not yet been established.

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Landowners were also asked to provide a known or estimated amount of non-residential floorspace by planning use class, including any sui generis uses. If the use classes were not known at this stage, landowners were asked to provide their best estimates.

Finally, landowners were asked to provide an indication of the anticipated overall development programme for their sites, including timescales for planning application and permission; a broad timescale for construction; overall sales period; and period for commercial letting/sale. We requested developers/landowners considered this in the context of two Phasing Scenarios. The first being the NLE in operation by 2019 and the second Phasing Scenario by December 2022. Only three developers responded to this element of the questionnaire, with two of three identifying that there would be no change to their timescales and one identifying an extension to the sales period for the units in their development by two years from 2021 to 2023.

3.5.2 Sheet 2 – Development Phasing

On this sheet, landowners were asked to allocate the total quantum of residential units and commercial space on a quarterly basis to reflect the anticipated rate of occupation. The development phasing sheet runs from 2012 to 2043, thus running beyond the period over which the developments are likely to come forward, but reflecting the period identified in the pessimistic delivery of development in the 2012 study.

3.6 Responses to landowner questionnaire

Table 3.6.1 lists the responses received from landowners. Landowner members of the Strategy Board initially sent out copies of the questionnaire with an explanatory note. Council officers and landowner members of the Strategy Board sent out further reminders to landowners who had not responded by the initial deadline.

Further information on schemes identified with the asterisks in Table 3.6.1 is set out below.

* Information provided by Wandsworth Borough Council from calculations derived from their Site Specific Allocations Document and LB Lambeth Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment and historic planning applications (where appropriate) with BNPPRE assumptions to delivery applied. ** Information provided in questionnaire but no phasing undertaken – phasing based on BNPPRE assumptions using info available from developer. *** Information derived from planning application / pre-application and BNPPRE assumptions applied to delivery.

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Table 3.6.1: Landowner responses

Wandsworth sites Response Lambeth sites Response

Battersea Power Station and Goods Yard, Kirtling Street, SW8 Yes Hampton House, 20-22 Albert Embankment Yes

Battersea Gasholders, Prince of Wales Drive, SW8 Yes Prince Consort House, 29 Albert Embankment, London: West End , SE1 7TJ No***

Marco Polo House, 346 Queenstown Road, SW8 Yes 2 -14 Tinworth Street and 108 -110 Vauxhall Walk (AKA Spring Mews) Yes

Riverlight, Tideway Industrial Estate, Nine Elms, SW8 Yes Island Site, Vauxhall Cross Yes

Market Towers, SW8 aka One Nine Elms Yes 9 Bondway & 4-6 South Lambeth Place Yes

Booker Cash and Carry, 41-49 Nine Elms Lane, SW8 and 49-59 Battersea Park Yes** Vauxhall Square Cap Gemini Site Yes

Dairy Crest Milk Distribution Depot, 55 Sleaford Street, SW8 Yes Keybridge House and Wyvil Road Yes**

Main Site, Ballymore, Ponton Road, SW8 (AKA Embassy Gardens) No*** Nine Elms Sainsbury’s, Wandsworth Road Yes

Cable and Wireless, Ballymore Site 6, Unit 2a, Battersea Park Road, SW8 No*** Land at St George Wharf (Vauxhall Tower) Yes

US Embassy, Nine Elms Lane, SW8 No*** 30-60 South Lambeth Road (AKA Atlas House) Yes

Royal Mail Group Site, Ponton Road, SW8 Yes Eastbury House, 30 - 34 Albert Embankment Yes

Government Car and Dispatch Agency, Ponton Road, SW8 Yes Camelford House / Tintagel House, 87-92 Albert Embankment No*

Metropolitan Police Warehouse Garage, Ponton Road, SW8 No* 5 and 21 Miles Street No*

Christies Auctioneers Depot, Ponton Road Yes 143-161 Wandsworth Rd (Sky Gardens) No***

Covent Garden Market, Nine Elms Lane Yes 10-20 Wyvil Road, SW8 2TG No***

Patcham Terrace (Network Rail Site) Battersea Yes*** London Fire Brigade HQ, 8 Albert Embankment; No*

Securicor Site, 80 Kirtling Street, SW8 Yes 81 Black Prince Road (Parliament House); No***

Brooks Court, Kirtling Street, SW8 Yes 10 Albert Embankment (Wah Kwong House); No***

Tidbury Court, Stewarts Road, SW8 Yes*** Texaco Garage, 38-46 Albert Embankment; No***

Lord Clyde, 90 Tyers Street No***

Bondway Commercial Centre, 69-71 Bondway No*

Queensborough House No***

1-18 Rudolph Place (to the rear of 66-70 South Lambeth Road) No***

10 Pascal Street, London, SW8 4SH No*

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3.7 Dealing with non-responses

As noted in Table 3.6.1, 25 landowners completed and returned a questionnaire in relation to the anticipated delivery of developments on their sites. This is an improvement from the response in 2011 when 17 landowners responded and BNP Paribas Real Estate considers this to be a reflection of the increased development activity in the area. These responses cover the bulk of the anticipated number of units expected to be developed in the NEV.

For sites where landowners had not responded, BNPPRE estimated the likely phasing of developments, using the following sources:

Submitted planning applications or planning permissions. These applications and permissions were identified through the following sources:

■ LB Lambeth and Wandsworth provided a list of sites for which they are aware of submitted and pre-applications and providing application references (to research the scheme’s submitted documentation on the Council’s online planning applications database), applicants’ agents and case officer details; and

■ BNPPRE’s knowledge of existing applications pending determination in the area; Sites identified in Wandsworth’s Site Specific Allocations Document for which LB Wandsworth have provided their understanding as to the number of units they will deliver.

■ Sites in LB Lambeth’s Strategic Housing Land Availability assessment, for LB Lambeth have identified some to have increases in the number of units likely to come forward given planning applications received on the sites in question.

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4 Phasing of development This section explains the origins of the data used to build up a comprehensive phasing plan across the NEV. We also outline the assumptions made in order to provide alternative phasing plans with a smoother rate of delivery. A table showing the breakdown of residential and commercial floorspace by scheme is provided as Appendix 3. Maps showing residential development by site for 2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 are attached as Appendix 4. There are four phasing plans, based on different assumptions. Phasing Scenario 1 is predominantly based on landowner responses to our questionnaire, with each respondent giving their views in isolation from other development activity in the NEV and in light of the BPS’s highly successful marketing campaign in Q1 of 2013. Where information on sites was not provided or is not available from a landowner assumptions have been made by BNPPRE using a range of sources including planning documents such as SHLAAs and Site Specific Allocations DPDs, pre-application advice, historic planning applications and the councils’ recommendations. This can be regarded as the optimistic phasing plan. Phasing scenario 2 assumes a slower rate of delivery on certain schemes after the initial peak to reflect the market’s ability to absorb units, while Phasing plan 3 builds in further smoothing and delays to development (representing a delay of around 6 months on Phasing Scenario 2). Phasing plan 4 assumes a slower rate of delivery i.e. further smoothing and delays to schemes in Phasing Scenario 3 and sits at the more cautious end of the range. Whilst it is difficult to predict the future, it is likely that phasing plans 2 and 4 provide the most likely basis for future iterations as planning and development intentions become clearer and as the model is updated. This study has adopted Phasing Scenario 2 for the purposes of modelling planning requirements i.e. population growth and the corresponding requirement for infrastructure and Phasing Scenario 4 has been adopted as to model the likely income that will be raised from schemes to deliver the NLE.

4.1 Phasing Scenario 1: based on landowner responses

The first phasing schedule relies upon the information and assumptions made by landowners, where received. This covers 18,276 residential units and 608,612 sq m of commercial/other floorspace. Where no phasing or the timing of delivery of the developments has been identified, we have made assumptions as to their likely delivery taking into consideration the likely time to work up a planning application; secure consent; discharging conditions etc. With regards to delivery of residential units we have assumed that 30% of units are occupied upon practical completion and the remaining units are occupied at a rate of circa five units per month thereafter. Information was obtained from the following sources:

21

■ Submitted/approved planning application. These applications were identified by:

■ LB Lambeth and Wandsworth provided a list of sites for which they are aware of submitted and pre-applications and

providing application references (to research the scheme’s submitted documentation on the Council’s online planning applications database), applicants’ agents and case officer details; and

■ BNPPRE’s knowledge of existing applications pending determination in the area; and

■ Sites in LB Lambeth’s Strategic Housing Land Availability assessment, for LB Lambeth have identified some to have increases in the number of units likely to come forward given planning applications received on the sites in question.

■ Sites identified in Wandsworth’s the Site Specific Allocations Document for which Wandsworth BC have provided their understanding as to the number of units they will deliver.

Many of the landowners of the sites identified in the LB Wandsworth ‘Site Specific Allocation Document’ are not currently working towards planning applications or redevelopment. Consequently, we have assumed that these sites will not be occupied until 2022.

A graph showing delivery of development in this phasing schedule is provided overleaf (figure 4.1).

22

Figure 4.1: Delivery of NEV development: Phasing Scenario 1

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23

4.2 Phasing Scenario 2

In the first sensitised phasing schedule, we have smoothed the market residential phasing of the larger development sites as set out in the table below. Full details of the treatment of each site for Phasing Scenario 2 is set out in the table in Appendix 5.

Site name No. units / month

Battersea Power Station 27 (Average)

Embassy Gardens 11 (Final Phase)

Gasholders 9

Vauxhall Square 8 (Second phase)

A graph showing delivery of development in this Phasing Scenario is provided later in this section (figure 4.2).

4.3 Phasing Scenario 3

For Phasing Scenario 3 we have incorporated further smoothing of sites from Phasing Scenario 2, which sought to smooth the schemes with the highest delivery of units i.e. BPS, Gasholders, Embassy Gardens & Vauxhall Square to ensure that the annual delivery did not exceed 1,750 units. We set out in the table below the schemes for which Phasing Scenario 3 further smoothed the occupation of residential units.

Site name No. units / month

& delays

Marco Polo House 8

Embassy Gardens 8

Hampton House 7

Vauxhall Square 8 (First Phase)

Riverlight 9 (2016 only)

Delays to specific schemes (8 Albert Embankment, Texaco, Bondway Commercial, BPS, Riverlight) were also incorporated into the phasing for Phasing Scenario 3 for a variety of reasons including:

■ likely delays to securing planning consent, for example, proposed development considered to be over development of site;

necessity to overcome loss of employment policies; on-going negotiations regarding affordable housing etc;

24

■ potential delays to the delivery of the Northern Line Extension;

■ landowners who are redeveloping their existing facilities as part of wider mixed-use developments experience delays to re-provision and/or relocation of their on-site operations;

■ delays to the delivery of the Site Specific Allocations sites identified by LB Wandsworth and SHLAA sites in Lambeth in order to smooth delivery of these sites to spread delivery do that they do not all come forward at the same time;

■ As a result of making changes to the timing of delivery of some schemes, the profile of commercial floorspace delivery has also changed from the phasing in Phasing Scenario 2.

Full details of the smoothing and delays applied to the specific sites are identified in Appendix 5.

A graph showing delivery of development in the Phasing Scenario is provided later in this section (figure 4.3).

4.4 Phasing Scenario 4

The final phasing scenario, Phasing Scenario 4, adopts the same maximum absorption rate of 1,750 units per annum as Phasing Scenario 3, however, seeks to further smooth the delivery of residential units and incorporate further delays to a few major schemes to take into account the volume of units being delivered at the same time by a number of key sites. These are as set out in the table below.

Site name Delays

Battersea Power Station

Phases smoothed and delayed between 1- 4 years

Gasholders Delivery delayed by 2 years

Royal Mail Delivery delayed by 2 years and data smoothed in line with 2012 questionnaire

Embassy Gardens 15 units per month (across 6 years)

A graph showing delivery of development in the Phasing Scenario is provided later in this section (figure 4.4) as full details of the treatment of all the sites in the study for Phasing Scenario 4 are set out in the table in Appendix 5.

25

Figure 4.2: Delivery of NEV development: Phasing Scenario 2

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Figure 4.3: Delivery of NEV development: Phasing Scenario 3

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Figure 4.4: Delivery of NEV development: Phasing Scenario 4

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28

4.5 Comparison of 2013 and 2012 proposed development in NEV area

Our research has identified an increase in the number of residential units proposed to be developed in the NEV area of circa 2,000 units and 117,000 sq m of commercial/other floorspace in the interim period of the 2012 and 2013 phasing and investment studies (see Table 4.5.1 and Figure 4.5.2 below). This increase is attributed to developers seeking to develop more densely on sites than that originally envisaged and more information available on sites within the NEV area due to the market picking up over the last 12 months. This is a trend that will need to be monitored in future updates of the phasing study as this will ultimately have implications for the requirement of infrastructure in the area.

Table 4.5.1 Comparison of 2013 and 2012 commercial and other development NEV area

Commercial (sq m) Lambeth data (2012)

Wandsworth data (2012)

NEV Study (2012)

Lambeth data (2013)

Wandsworth data (2013)

NEV Study (2013)

Difference (sq m)

A1 retail 13,888 64,308 78,196 14,293 70,722 85,015 6,819

A2 financial and professional services

- 3,716 3,716 2,500 890 3,390 -326

A3 restaurants and cafes - 15,914 15,914 3,003 19,699 22,702 6,788

A4 drinking establishments - 650 650 - 1,365 1,365 715

B1 offices 33,674 192,688 226,362 54,280 233,061 287,341 60,979

B8 storage and distribution - 16,299 16,299 - 16,299 16,299 0

D1 non-residential institutions 298 17,288 17,586 6,440 40,646 47,086 29,500

D2 assembly and leisure 2698 34,948 37,646 4159 23,236 27,395 -10,251

Other 5,302 92,506 97,808 7,406 113,121 120,527 22,719

Total commercial floorspace 55,860 438,317 494,177 92,081 508,053 611,120 116,943

29

Figure 4.5.2 Comparison of 2013 and 2012 cumulative delivery of residential units in NEV area

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5 Income analysis 5.1 NEV Tariff

The NEV OAPF sets a range of tariffs for residential and commercial floorspace, relating to areas; an assumption on future growth in residential sales values and capital values; and the level of affordable housing provided. Table 5.1 below summarises the rates of tariff for each use class from 2010 to 2015 and then from 2016 to 2031. The OAPF does not uprate levels of tariff after 2016 and rates remain unchanged for a 15 year period. The DIFS notes that any uplift in tariff would need to take account of market conditions at the time the increase is proposed to take place. Furthermore, by 2016, both boroughs will have adopted their CIL charging schedules and any changes to CIL rates will need to be justified on the grounds of viability.

Source: DIFS

A differential tariff applies depending on the level of affordable housing to be provided; £20,000 to £40,000 per unit where 15% affordable housing is provided and £15,000 to £25,000 per unit where 40% affordable housing is provided. The differential between tariff levels is £15,000 per unit in the higher value zone and £5,000 per unit in the lower value zone to reflect a 25% change in affordable housing level. This allowance is very modest in comparison to the difference in value generated by a market housing unit in comparison to an affordable housing unit. Figure 5.0 below shows the two tariff zones. The tariff zones were based on the Opportunity Area boundary at the time of the DIFS report, whilst the boundary in Lambeth was subsequently amended, no significant development sites are located in the area which has been added to the OA.

31

Figure 5.0: tariff zones

Source: DIFS

5.2 Borough CILs

Wandsworth Council adopted their Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) Charging Schedule on 11 July 2012 (which became effective from 1st November 2012). From this point onwards they no longer use the DIFS tariff to calculate contributions towards infrastructure in the NEV area. They now charge a CIL tariff under the CIL Regulations 2010 (as amended). The rates charged by Wandsworth Council for development in the NEV area are as follows.

Type of development Nine Elms Residential Area A Nine Elms Residential Area B

Residential Development £575 per sq m £265 per sq m

Office (All B1a) or Retail (All A use classes) Development

£100 per sq m £100 per sq m

All other Development £0 per sq m £0 per sq m

32

The London borough of Lambeth is currently still using the DIFS tariff for the purposes of calculating contributions towards infrastructure in the NEV area. However Lambeth are in the final stages of preparing their Charging Schedule and are due to submit their draft Charging Schedule for examination imminently. The rates proposed by Lambeth for development in the NEV area are as follows.

Type of development Zone A – Waterloo and Vauxhall

Residential £265 per sq m

Hotel £250 per sq m

Office £125 per sq m

Large retail development £115 per sq m

Student accommodation £360 per sq m

It should be noted that CIL income calculations prior to the finalisation of schemes and grant of planning consent can only ever be considered to be the Council and BNP Paribas Real Estate’s best estimates given the inherent issues surrounding the calculation of CIL liable floorspace including deductions for existing floorspace, phasing, quantum of development’s floorspace estimated, affordable housing floorspace, etc. Under the CIL Regulations (as amended) 15% of borough CIL has to be allocated in accordance to the wishes of the neighbourhood (Neighbourhood CIL), in Lambeth the Council has chosen to allocate 25% of borough CIL to neighbourhoods. In addition councils may use up to 5% of borough CIL towards administrative costs. These allocations/cost could obviously have a significant impact on the amount of CIL available to fund strategic and necessary social infrastructure in the area.

We set out in table 5.2.1 below our calculations of the income based on our analysis of existing S106 agreements, current considerations of likely income to be secured from applications currently being determined and likely CIL calculations on future developments. It is important to note that these income estimates are based on current CIL and tariff rates only and do not factor in any potential increase at 2016. Given that any increases will need to take account of economic conditions at the time the increase is due to take effect, it would be imprudent at this stage to assume that the increase will be implemented.

We have also included calculated Mayoral CIL liabilities and future Mayoral CIL contributions from the development in the NEV area, which is a required from relevant development that has received planning permission from 1 April 2012 onwards. The Mayoral CIL liability in Lambeth is £35 per sq m and Wandsworth is £50 per sq m on all development (with the exception of health care, education and emergency facilities). It should be noted that where DIFS was calculated prior to the adoption of borough CILs, the Mayoral CIL level has been deducted from the DIFS liability to ensure the viable delivery of development sin the NEV area. Although included within this study it is highlighted that Mayoral CIL contributions is not directly available for funding the NLE or other infrastructure in the NEV area.

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Table 5.2.1 Income from Opportunity Area

Income Wandsworth Lambeth Total

DIFS/S106 £156,055,957 £33,446,214.62 £189,502,171.52

Borough CIL £85,825,089 £7,894,541.00 £93,719,630.00

Sub-total £241,881,046 £41,340,755.62 £283,221,801.52

Other S106 £219,215,000 £12,840,043.21 £232,055,043.21

Mayoral CIL £35,642,531 £11,197,189.38 £46,839,720.27

Total income £496,738,577 £65,377,988 £562,116,565

34

Despite more development projected for the area i.e. 18,000 new homes compared to 16,000, the amount of income has reduced from that estimated in the 2012 study. Reasons for this include the need to take into consideration discounting existing floorspace for CIL calculations and applications for schemes such as NCGM being considered after adoption of CIL. The DIFS report assumed that the tariff would be applied to the NCGM site before deductions are made from new commercial floorspace to account for the enabling costs/cross subsidy to the new market floorspace.

5.3 Income flow based on Phasing Scenario 2

Figures 5.3.1, 5.3.2 and 5.3.3 provide a summary of the income flow arising from the phasing of developments in Phasing Scenario 2 for Lambeth, Wandsworth and the two boroughs combined. The annual income flows are also provided in Appendix 6.

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Figure 5.3.1: Annual income - Lambeth (Phasing Scenario 2)

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36

Table 5.3.1: Annual income – Lambeth (Phasing Scenario 2)

2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 LBL - DIFS £33,446,214.62 £0 £0 £2,870,007 £3,352,674 £6,968,869 £3,454,917 £3,978,382 £2,732,782 £5,044,292 LBL - Borough CIL £7,894,541.00 £0 £0 £0 £0 £5,310,074 £928,100 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Mayoral CIL £11,197,189.38 £0 £0 £1,404,556 £1,451,000 £1,021,769 £4,814,891 £857,616 £692,551 £692,551 LBL - Other S106 £12,840,043.21 £115,952 £159,774 £979,881 £2,012,894 £2,122,976 £4,300,718 £273,944 £0 £287,500 LBL - Cumulative DIFS £0 £0 £2,870,007 £6,222,681 £13,191,550 £16,646,466 £20,624,848 £23,357,631 £28,401,923 LBL - Cumulative Borough CIL £0 £0 £0 £0 £5,310,074 £6,238,174 £6,238,174 £6,238,174 £6,238,174 LBL - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £0 £0 £1,404,556 £2,855,556 £3,877,325 £8,692,216 £9,549,832 £10,242,383 £10,934,934 LBL - Cumulative Other S106 £115,952 £275,726 £1,255,607 £3,268,502 £5,391,478 £9,692,196 £9,966,139 £9,966,139 £10,253,639 LBL - Cumulative total income £65,377,988.21 £115,952 £275,726 £5,530,170 £12,346,738 £27,770,426 £41,269,052 £46,378,994 £49,804,327 £55,828,670

2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 LBL - DIFS £33,446,214.62 £0 £0 £5,044,292 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Borough CIL £7,894,541.00 £0 £1,656,367 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Mayoral CIL £11,197,189.38 £0 £262,255 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Other S106 £12,840,043.21 £1,011,404 £0 £1,255,000 £320,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Cumulative DIFS £28,401,923 £28,401,923 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 LBL - Cumulative Borough CIL £6,238,174 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 LBL - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £10,934,934 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 LBL - Cumulative Other S106 £11,265,043 £11,265,043 £12,520,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 LBL - Cumulative total income £65,377,988.21 £56,840,074 £58,758,696 £65,057,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988

37

Figure 5.3.2: Annual income - Wandsworth (Phasing Scenario 2)

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WC - Cumulative total income

38

Table 5.3.2: Annual Income – Wandsworth (Phasing Scenario 2)

2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020

WC - DIFS/S106 £156,055,957.11 £3,135,451 £2,270,902 £9,754,768 £14,390,234 £20,840,888 £24,604,632 £4,003,892 £15,630,923 £18,194,923

WC - Borough CIL £85,825,089.00 £0 £0 £0 £13,717,449 £11,907,456 £1,897,395 £24,026,204 £11,013,102 £5,582,808

WC - Mayoral CIL £35,642,530.89 £0 £0 £15,364,410 £5,113,451 £2,191,845 £661,605 £7,734,150 £0 £1,152,738

WC - Other S106 £219,215,000.00 £150,000 £5,435,000 £19,020,000 £0 £21,020,000 £0 £17,760,000 £56,840,000 £20,485,000

WC - Cumulative DIFS/S106 £3,135,451 £5,406,352 £15,161,120 £29,551,355 £50,392,243 £74,996,874 £79,000,767 £94,631,690 £112,826,613

WC - Cumulative Borough CIL £0 £0 £0 £13,717,449 £25,624,905 £27,522,300 £51,548,504 £62,561,606 £68,144,414

WC - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £0 £0 £15,364,410 £20,477,861 £22,669,706 £23,331,311 £31,065,461 £31,065,461 £32,218,199

WC - Cumulative other S106 £150,000 £5,585,000 £24,605,000 £24,605,000 £45,625,000 £45,625,000 £63,385,000 £120,225,000 £140,710,000

WC - Cumulative total income £496,738,577.00 £3,285,451 £10,991,352 £55,130,530 £88,351,665 £144,311,854 £171,475,485 £224,999,732 £308,483,757 £353,899,226

2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030

WC - DIFS/S106 £156,055,957.11 £10,166,672 £15,254,672 £0 £10,176,000 £0 £0 £7,632,000 £0 £0 £0

WC - Borough CIL £85,825,089.00 £6,055,255 £8,435,614 £2,293,204 £896,602 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

WC - Mayoral CIL £35,642,530.89 £2,822,482 £0 £601,850 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

WC - Other S106 £219,215,000.00 £20,440,000 £26,470,000 £3,925,000 £23,745,000 £3,925,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

WC - Cumulative DIFS/S106 £122,993,285 £138,247,957 £138,247,957 £148,423,957 £148,423,957 £148,423,957 £156,055,957 £156,055,957 £156,055,957 £156,055,957

WC - Cumulative Borough CIL £74,199,669 £82,635,283 £84,928,487 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089

WC - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £35,040,681 £35,040,681 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531

WC - Cumulative other S106 £161,150,000 £187,620,000 £191,545,000 £215,290,000 £219,215,000 £219,215,000 £219,215,000 £219,215,000 £219,215,000 £219,215,000

WC - Cumulative total income £496,738,577.00 £393,383,635 £443,543,921 £450,363,975 £485,181,577 £489,106,577 £489,106,577 £496,738,577 £496,738,577 £496,738,577 £496,738,577

39

Figure 5.3.3: Total annual income (Phasing Scenario 2)

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40

5.4 Income flow based on Phasing Scenario 4

Figures 5.4.1, 5.4.2 and 5.4.3 provide a summary of the income flow arising from the most conservative Phasing Scenario of developments in this study. As before the annual income flows are also provided in Appendix 6.

Figure 5.4.1: Annual income - Lambeth (Phasing Scenario 4)

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41

Table 5.4.1: Annual Income – Lambeth (Phasing Scenario 4)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 LBL - DIFS £33,446,214.62 £0 £0 £2,870,007 £3,352,674 £5,408,869 £3,454,917 £5,538,382 £2,732,782 £5,044,292 LBL - Borough CIL £7,894,541.00 £0 £0 £0 £0 £751,823 £51,950 £1,640,875 £876,150 £2,917,376 LBL - Mayoral CIL £11,197,189.38 £0 £0 £1,404,556 £1,312,605 £192,094 £837,806 £1,113,256 £4,808,031 £1,266,586 LBL - Other S106 £12,840,043.21 £115,952 £159,774 £979,881 £2,012,894 £2,122,976 £3,408,218 £1,166,444 £0 £287,500 LBL - Cumulative DIFS £0 £0 £2,870,007 £6,222,681 £11,631,550 £15,086,466 £20,624,848 £23,357,631 £28,401,923 LBL - Cumulative Borough CIL £0 £0 £0 £0 £751,823 £803,773 £2,444,648 £3,320,798 £6,238,174 LBL - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £0 £0 £1,404,556 £2,717,161 £2,909,255 £3,747,061 £4,860,317 £9,668,348 £10,934,934 LBL - Cumulative Other S106 £115,952 £275,726 £1,255,607 £3,268,502 £5,391,478 £8,799,696 £9,966,139 £9,966,139 £10,253,639 LBL - Cumulative total income £65,377,988.21 £115,952 £275,726 £5,530,170 £12,208,343 £20,684,105 £28,436,996 £37,895,953 £46,312,916 £55,828,670

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 LBL - DIFS £33,446,214.62 £0 £0 £5,044,292 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Borough CIL £7,894,541.00 £0 £1,656,367 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Mayoral CIL £11,197,189.38 £0 £262,255 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Other S106 £12,840,043.21 £1,011,404 £0 £1,255,000 £320,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 LBL - Cumulative DIFS £28,401,923 £28,401,923 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 £33,446,215 LBL - Cumulative Borough CIL £6,238,174 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 £7,894,541 LBL - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £10,934,934 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 £11,197,189 LBL - Cumulative Other S106 £11,265,043 £11,265,043 £12,520,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 £12,840,043 LBL - Cumulative total income £65,377,988.21 £56,840,074 £58,758,696 £65,057,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988 £65,377,988

42

Figure 5.4.2: Annual income - Wandsworth (Phasing Scenario 4)

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43

Table 5.4.2: Annual Income – Wandsworth (Phasing Scenario 4)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 WC - DIFS/S106 £156,055,956.90 £3,135,451 £2,270,902 £7,210,768 £14,390,234 £23,384,888 £14,428,632 £4,003,892 £20,718,923 £10,566,032 WC - Borough CIL £85,825,089.00 £0 £0 £0 £7,778,366 £4,029,290 £7,836,478 £31,904,370 £11,013,102 £2,524,549 WC - Mayoral CIL £35,642,530.89 £0 £0 £15,364,410 £3,604,201 £682,595 £2,170,855 £9,243,400 £0 £575,708 WC - Other S106 £219,215,000.00 £150,000 £5,435,000 £19,020,000 £0 £21,020,000 £0 £0 £17,760,000 £36,400,000 WC - Cumulative DIFS/S106 £3,135,451 £5,406,352 £12,617,120 £27,007,354 £50,392,242 £64,820,874 £68,824,766 £89,543,689 £100,109,722 WC - Cumulative Borough CIL £0 £0 £0 £7,778,366 £11,807,656 £19,644,134 £51,548,504 £62,561,606 £65,086,155 WC - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £0 £0 £15,364,410 £18,968,611 £19,651,206 £21,822,061 £31,065,461 £31,065,461 £31,641,169 WC - Cumulative other S106 £150,000 £5,585,000 £24,605,000 £24,605,000 £45,625,000 £45,625,000 £45,625,000 £63,385,000 £99,785,000 WC - Cumulative total income £496,738,576.79 £3,285,451 £10,991,352 £52,586,530 £78,359,331 £127,476,104 £151,912,069 £197,063,731 £246,555,756 £296,622,046

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 WC - DIFS/S106 £156,055,956.90 £0 £10,163,563 £10,176,000 £7,622,672 £0 £10,176,000 £0 £0 £7,632,000 £2,544,000

WC - Borough CIL £85,825,089.00 £7,325,527 £10,223,601 £2,293,204 £896,602 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

WC - Mayoral CIL £35,642,530.89 £3,062,156 £337,356 £601,850 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

WC - Other S106 £219,215,000.00 £17,760,000 £0 £20,440,000 £2,725,000 £20,440,000 £26,470,000 £3,925,000 £23,745,000 £3,925,000 £0

WC - Cumulative DIFS/S106 £100,109,722 £110,273,285 £120,449,285 £128,071,957 £128,071,957 £138,247,957 £138,247,957 £138,247,957 £145,879,957 £148,423,957

WC - Cumulative Borough CIL £72,411,682 £82,635,283 £84,928,487 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089 £85,825,089

WC - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £34,703,325 £35,040,681 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531 £35,642,531

WC - Cumulative other S106 £117,545,000 £117,545,000 £137,985,000 £140,710,000 £161,150,000 £187,620,000 £191,545,000 £215,290,000 £219,215,000 £219,215,000

WC - Cumulative total income £496,738,576.79 £324,769,729 £345,494,249 £379,005,303 £390,249,577 £410,689,577 £447,335,577 £451,260,577 £475,005,577 £486,562,577 £489,106,577

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 WC - DIFS/S106 £156,055,956.90 £0.00 £0.00 £7,632,000.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

WC - Borough CIL £85,825,089.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

WC - Mayoral CIL £35,642,530.89 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

WC - Other S106 £219,215,000.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

WC - Cumulative DIFS/S106 £148,423,956.90 £148,423,956.90 £156,055,956.90 £156,055,956.90 £156,055,956.90 £156,055,956.90 £156,055,956.90 £156,055,956.90 £156,055,956.90 £156,055,956.90

WC - Cumulative Borough CIL £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00 £85,825,089.00

WC - Cumulative Mayoral CIL £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89 £35,642,530.89

WC - Cumulative other S106 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00 £219,215,000.00

WC - Cumulative total income £496,738,576.79 £489,106,576.79 £489,106,576.79 £496,738,576.79 £496,738,576.79 £496,738,576.79 £496,738,576.79 £496,738,576.79 £496,738,576.79 £496,738,576.79 £496,738,576.79

44

Figure 5.1.3: Total annual income (Phasing Scenario 4)

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45

6 Timing of infrastructure requirements and funding 6.1 NLE contributions

Under the terms of the agreement between the boroughs and TfL/GLA, the following contributions are required to be paid by the boroughs, subject to receiving the same amounts from developers:

Table 6.1.1: Amounts due to be paid to TfL for NLE (amounts subject to indexation)

Source Wandsworth Lambeth Total

BPS contribution £199,700,000* N/A £199,700,000

CIL and DIFS S106 £59,000,000 £7,300,000 £66,300,000

Totals £258,700,000 £7,300,000 £266,000,000

* excluding expenditure on the TWAO previously incurred by Treasury Holdings and LBW. Total BPS contribution £203m including previously incurred expenditure.

The agreement in respect of BPS is that the NLE will take 100% of all s106 payments received for each Phase, other than £4.3m (plus indexation) to be retained by Wandsworth for each of Phase 4 and Phase 6. This agreement is supported by a direct commercial agreement between TfL and the BPS developer that ensures that the s106 payments will be paid by longstop dates (generally two years after the currently proposed occupation dates), irrespective of whether the development milestones in the s106 have been triggered.

In respect of NEV developments other than BPS, the agreement between the boroughs and TfL is that the NLE takes a fixed schedule of contributions, totaling £59m from Wandsworth and £7.3m from Lambeth (in 2012/13 prices), but subject to a cap of 72.2% of the actual amount collected by each borough (72.2% being the original NLE allocation in the DIFS). The calculation mechanism for both the NLE contribution and the cap are cumulative, with 2012/13 as the base year. If the cap is reached in a particular year and hence the actual NLE contribution is lower than the amount specified in the fixed schedule, the underpayment is added to the NLE contribution for the subsequent year, under the cumulative mechanism.

This approach - a fixed schedule of NLE contributions, but subject to a cap equal to a fixed percentage of the actual amount of s106/CIL collected – was developed in order to prioritise the payment of NLE debt service by the GLA in the years during and immediately following construction, but once this need has been met, to maximize the availability of funding for other infrastructure. The percentage cap ensures that the boroughs only make NLE contributions to the extent that they receive s106 and CIL funding.

46

It is important to note that the amount of CIL available for meeting NLE payments and other community infrastructure requirements is potentially reduced by 15% which reflects the requirement for devolving funds to neighborhoods (Lambeth has decided to devolve 25% of CIL receipts to neighbourhoods). In addition, an additional 5% of the remaining amount can be used to cover administration costs. The agreement between TfL and the boroughs is clear that the NLE contributions set out above are net of any such deductions, i.e. the amounts shown are not to be reduced further on account of such deductions. Clearly the impact of the requirement to devolve CIL receipts to neighbourhoods CIL could be partially or completely mitigated if the neighbourhood prioritises expenditure on items that are assumed to be funded by DIFS, e.g. schools, community and health facilities.

Figures 6.1.1 and 6.1.2 plot anticipated DIFS and Borough CIL income in Wandsworth against the cumulative NLE contributions due under the agreement (excluding BPS). The current trajectory of income results in a higher amount collected in each year than the amounts stated in the NLE agreement. Figures 6.1.3 and 6.1.4 plot the same data for schemes in Lambeth. The corresponding amounts are shown in the tables following the charts.

47

Figure 6.1.1: Cumulative payments to TfL compared to capped payments in the NLE agreement - Wandsworth (Phasing Scenario 2)

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Table 6.1.1: Cumulative payments to TfL compared to capped payments in the NLE agreement - Wandsworth (Phasing Scenario 2)

31/03/2013 31/03/2014 31/03/2015 31/03/2016 31/03/2017 31/03/2018 31/03/2019 31/03/2020 31/03/2021 31/03/2022 31/03/2023

Cumulative S106 5.41 15.16 43.27 76.02 102.52 130.55 157.19 180.97 197.19 220.88 223.18

Cumulative TFL payment - - 2.79 7.02 18.29 25.94 31.15 38.83 46.72 51.51 52.27

31/03/2024 31/03/2025 31/03/2026 31/03/2027 31/03/2028 31/03/2029 31/03/2030 31/03/2031 31/03/2032 31/03/2033

Cumulative S106 234.25 234.25 234.25 241.88 241.88 241.88 241.88 241.88 241.88 241.88

Cumulative TFL payment 53.59 54.30 55.11 56.69 57.15 57.51 57.51 57.51 57.96 58.52

49

Figure 6.1.2: Cumulative payments to TfL compared to capped payments in the NLE agreement - Wandsworth (Phasing Scenario 4)

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Table 6.1.2: Cumulative payments to TfL compared to capped payments in the NLE agreement - Wandsworth (Phasing Scenario 4)

31 Mar 13 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar 16 31 Mar 17 31 Mar 18 31 Mar 19 31 Mar 20 31 Mar 21 31 Mar 22 31 Mar 23

Cumulative S106 5.41 12.62 34.79 62.20 84.47 120.37 152.11 165.20 172.52 192.91 205.38

Cumulative TFL payment - - 2.79 7.02 18.29 25.94 31.15 38.83 46.72 51.51 52.27

31 Mar 24 31 Mar 25 31 Mar 26 31 Mar 27 31 Mar 28 31 Mar 29 31 Mar 30 31 Mar 31 31 Mar 32 31 Mar 33

Cumulative S106 213.90 213.90 224.07 224.07 224.07 231.71 234.25 234.25 234.25 241.88

Cumulative TFL payment 53.59 54.30 55.11 56.69 57.15 57.51 57.51 57.51 57.96 58.52

51

Figure 6.1.3: Cumulative payments to TfL compared to capped payments in the NLE agreement - Lambeth (Phasing Scenario 2)

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Table 6.1.3: Cumulative payments to TfL compared to capped payments in the NLE agreement - Lambeth (Phasing Scenario 2)

31 Mar 13 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar 16 31 Mar 17 31 Mar 18 31 Mar 19 31 Mar 20 31 Mar 21 31 Mar 22 31 Mar 23

Cumulative gross DIFS S106 and CIL receipts - 2.87 6.22 18.50 22.88 26.86 29.60 34.64 34.64 36.30 41.34

Cumulative TFL payment - 1.04 2.09 3.13 4.17 5.21 6.26 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30

31 Mar 24 31 Mar 25 31 Mar 26 31 Mar 27 31 Mar 28 31 Mar 29 31 Mar 30 31 Mar 31 31 Mar 32 31 Mar 33

Cumulative gross DIFS S106 and CIL receipts 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34

Cumulative TFL payment 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30

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Figure 6.1.4: Cumulative payments to TfL compared to capped payments in the NLE agreement – Lambeth (Phasing Scenario 4)

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Table 6.1.4: Cumulative payments to TfL compared to capped payments in the NLE agreement – Lambeth (Phasing Scenario 4)

31 Mar 13 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar 16 31 Mar 17 31 Mar 18 31 Mar 19 31 Mar 20 31 Mar 21 31 Mar 22 31 Mar 23

Cumulative S106 - 2.87 6.22 12.38 15.89 23.07 26.68 34.64 34.64 36.30 41.34

Cumulative TFL payment - 1.04 2.09 3.13 4.17 5.21 6.26 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30

31 Mar 24 31 Mar 25 31 Mar 26 31 Mar 27 31 Mar 28 31 Mar 29 31 Mar 30 31 Mar 31 31 Mar 32 31 Mar 33

Cumulative S106 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34 41.34

Cumulative TFL payment 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30

55

Figures 6.1.5 and 6.1.6 provide an indication of the annual DIFS (S106) and CIL income that will remain available for funding non-NLE requirements after the NLE payments have been deducted. Both of these figures are based on Phasing Scenario 4. These figures relate to DIFS Section 106 and CIL only and exclude other Section 106 payments.

Figure 6.1.5: DIFS (S106) and CIL funding available for non-NLE requirements (Wandsworth)

(5.00)

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

(5.00)

5.00

15.00

25.00

35.00

45.00

55.00

65.00

No

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TfL

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Non-NLE S106 and CIL (RHS)

Cumulative amount paid to GLA (LHS)

56

Table 6.1.5: DIFS (S106) and CIL funding available for non-NLE requirements (Wandsworth)

31 Mar 13 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar 16 31 Mar 17 31 Mar 18 31 Mar 19 31 Mar 20 31 Mar 21 31 Mar 22 31 Mar 23 Anticipated DIFS/S106 receipts (net) 5.41 7.21 22.17 27.41 22.27 35.91 31.73 13.09 7.33 20.39 12.47 Capped payment to TFL - - 2.79 4.24 11.26 7.66 5.20 7.68 7.89 4.79 0.76 Amounts available for other infrastructure 5.41 7.21 19.38 23.18 11.00 28.25 26.53 5.41 (0.56) 15.59 11.71

31 Mar 24 31 Mar 25 31 Mar 26 31 Mar 27 31 Mar 28 31 Mar 29 31 Mar 30 31 Mar 31 31 Mar 32 31 Mar 33 Anticipated DIFS/S106 receipts (net) 8.52 - 10.18 - - 7.63 2.54 - - 7.63 Capped payment to TFL 1.32 0.71 0.81 1.57 0.47 0.36 - - 0.45 0.56 Amounts available for other infrastructure 7.20 (0.71) 9.36 (1.57) (0.47) 7.27 2.54 - (0.45) 7.08

57

Figure 6.1.5: DIFS (S106) and CIL funding available for non-NLE requirements (Lambeth)

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

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(£

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Non-NLE S106 and CIL (RHS)

Cumulative amount paid to GLA (LHS)

58

Table 6.1.5: DIFS (S106) and CIL funding available for non-NLE requirements (Lambeth)

31 Mar 13 31 Mar 14 31 Mar 15 31 Mar 16 31 Mar 17 31 Mar 18 31 Mar 19 31 Mar 20 31 Mar 21 31 Mar 22 31 Mar 23 Anticipated DIFS/S106 receipts - 2.87 3.35 6.16 3.51 7.18 3.61 7.96 - 1.66 5.04 Capped payment to TFL - 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 - - - Amounts available for other infrastructure - 1.83 2.31 5.12 2.46 6.14 2.57 6.92 - 1.66 5.04

31 Mar 24 31 Mar 25 31 Mar 26 31 Mar 27 31 Mar 28 31 Mar 29 31 Mar 30 31 Mar 31 31 Mar 32 31 Mar 33 Anticipated DIFS/S106 receipts - - - - - - - - - - Capped payment to TFL - - - - - - - - - - Amounts available for other infrastructure - - - - - - - - - -

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6.2 Funding for non-NLE requirements

The boroughs have worked with the relevant agencies to estimate health and education requirements based on available population projections and phasing of developments. These requirements are summarised in Table 6.2.1. It is also important to note that estimates of health care and education requirements are to be updated in 2014 following release of 2011 Census data.

Table 6.2.1: Non-NLE infrastructure requirements (£ millions)

Infrastructure requirement 2012 – 2017 2018 – 2022 2023 – 2027 2028 – 2033

Total Wandsworth Lambeth Wandsworth Lambeth Wandsworth Lambeth Wandsworth Lambeth

Non NLE transport £61.25 £6.28 £0.27 £8.38 £0.28 £0.38 £1.42 £33.17 £11.06

Highways works £55.36 £9.17 £9.60 £4.21 £0.40 £0.00 £6.12 £25.86 £0.00

Education £67.40 £27.88 £0.00 £21.92 £7.00 £0.00 £0.00 £10.60 £0.00

Health £4.98 £1.64 £1.64 £0.85 £0.85 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Open space £13.48 £3.28 £0.00 £7.10 £2.36 £0.00 £0.75 £0.00 £0.00

Community £7.68 £0.00 £0.00 £2.06 £1.45 £1.03 £2.42 £0.72 £0.00

Emergency services £3.15 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £2.36 £0.79 £0.00 £0.00

Employment £0.70 £0.45 £0.00 £0.25 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Utilities £1.81 £0.49 £0.00 £1.32 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Administration £2.50 £2.01 £0.49 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00

Total requirements £218.32 £51.21 £12.00 £46.08 £12.34 £3.77 £11.50 £70.35 £11.06 Non-NLE funding available over period

£327.42 £97.89 £24.27 £53.81 £27.19 £74.00 £6.62 £43.65 £0.00

Funding remaining for other community infrastructure

£46.67 £15.26 £7.73 £14.85 £70.23 -£4.88 -£26.71 -£11.06

(PLEASE NOTE: TABLE 6.2.1 IS SUBJECT TO REVIEW)

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7 Summary and conclusions Updated information from landowners indicates that the NEV OA will experience a higher volume of residential development with a faster delivery rate than was anticipated in the 2012 Phasing and Investment Study. Landowners now anticipate delivering 18,276 residential units, compared to 16,000 identified in the OAPF. A faster anticipated delivery of schemes will require earlier delivery of social and other infrastructure to support the new community that will be created. Buses, public realm, employment, health care and education requirements are likely to be the most pressing requirements. There is further work to be undertaken to establish an updated position with regards to health and education needs in light of the 2011 Census which will become available in 2014. It will then be necessary to review the position with regards to the amount of funding required compared to non-NLE funding that will be available.

Since the last Phasing and Investment Study was undertaken, funding arrangements for the NLE have been confirmed, including first call on a proportion of CIL and Section 106 receipts (in addition to the bulk of the S106 contribution being made by BPS). The priority for NLE funding will necessarily reduce the funds that remain to deliver social and other infrastructure. However, our analysis indicates that as they are currently modelled, there is likely to be sufficient income after NLE payments have been made to deliver the most immediate requirements for new schools and healthcare should they be required However, further work will be required in relation to planning for short term need as funds may be needed to be allocated in the next year to ensure provision is provided for first significant expansion in the population of the area in 2016. Clearly the market has potential to change over time and the boroughs should continue to keep the capacity of the market to absorb new development under review.

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Appendix 1 Indicative estimate of health care requirements

62

Table 1: Cumulative health care requirements

5 years to 2017 10 years to 2022 15 years to 2027

Cumulative population increase 10,631 25,907 33,962

Cumulative space requirement (square metres) 630 4,320 6,300

Cumulative capital cost (fit out) £1,179,990 £7,449,140 £10,538,280

Cumulative Capital cost (set-up) @ £1,600 per sqm £1,008,000 £6,912,000 £10,080,000

Total capital cost £2,187,990 £14,361,140 £20,618,280

Annual operating (running) costs @ £600 per sqm £378,000 £2,592,000 £3,780,000

Revenue (commissioning costs) £24,793,609 £78,134,771 £110,667,534

Table 2: Requirements by 5 year phase

By 5 year phase 5 years to 2017 10 years to 2022 15 years to 2027

2012-2017 2017-2022 2022-2027

Population increase 10,631 15,276 8,055

Space requirement (square metres) 630 sq. m. 3,690 sq m. 1,980 sq m.

Capital cost (fit out) £1,179,990 £6,269,150 £3,089,140

Capital cost (set-up) @ £1,600/m2 £1,008,000 £5,904,000 £3,168,000

Total capital cost £2,187,990 £12,173,150 £6,257,140

Annual operating (running) cost @ £600/m2 £378,000 £2,214,000 £1,118,000

Revenue (commissioning costs) £24,793,609 £53,341,161 £32,532,764

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Appendix 2 Landowner questionnaire

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Appendix 3 Commercial and residential floorspace by scheme

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Appendix 4 NEV maps analysing population growth in Scenario 2

66

Appendix 5 Assumptions applied to individual sites for each scenario

67

Appendix 6 Tables and graphs showing analysis of income

68