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2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014

2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology Calendar Year Analysis Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

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Page 1: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

2013 Competitive OverviewJune 11, 2014

Page 2: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

2013 Competitive Update: Methodology

Calendar Year Analysis

Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Major Studios only

Ruled out highly inaccurate films

Sony numbers are “reported” for consistency

Kantar reported (10-15% under reported)

Data should ONLY BE USED DIRECTIONALLY

Page 3: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

2013 Studio Snapshot – Film Count & Genre Mix

Total Films: 14 Analyzed Films: 13

Total Films: 18Analyzed Films: 17

Total Films: 8Analyzed Films: 8

Total Films: 10Analyzed Films: 10

Total Films: 15 Analyzed Films: 11

Total Films: 16 Analyzed Films: 14

* All data is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported; outlier films not included

Adult31% (4)

Comedy15% (2)

Event23% (3)

Family / Animated

31% (4)

Ac-tion25% (2)

Adult13% (1)

Event37% (3)

Comedy25% (2)

Adult

20% (2)

Event

40% (4)

Family / Animated

30% (3)

Comedy10% (1)

Action17% (3)

Adult18% (3)

Comedy24% (4)

Tar-geted

17% (3)

Event24% (4)

Action27% (3)

Adult9% (1)

Com-edy

10% (1)

Tar-geted

27% (3)

Event18% (2)

Family / Animated

9% (1)

Adult

22% (3)

Comedy14% (2)

Event

21% (3)

Targeted 29% (4) Family /

Animated 14% (2)

Page 4: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

$MM

Media Spend

1011 814# of Films

Total B.O.

17

2013 Pre-Opening TV: Total Spend by Distributor

$1.86B $1.43B $1.71B $967M$1.14B

Se

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

523.3

321.1271.3 269.7 256.8

190.6

13

$1.06B

• All data is Kantar reported; outlier films not included

Page 5: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

$MM

Media Spend

2013 Pre-Opening TV: Average Spend Per Film

Ser0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

$30.8

$25.7 $24.7 $24.7 $23.8

$19.3

• All data is Kantar reported; outlier films not included

Page 6: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

2013 Pre-Opening: Average GRPS by Distributor

13 11 14108# of Films 17

WB Pmnt FOX/DW BV Univ Sony1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

21002,030

1,990

2,225

1,940

1,7651,705

1,955

$15.16 $13.24$11.10 $13.97$11.97 $11.30AVG CPP

Page 7: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

2013 Pre-opening: GRP Point Level Distribution

* All data is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported; outlier films not included

31% below 1800

12% below 1800

50% below 1800

40% below 1800

58% below 1800

65% below1800

Page 8: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Warner Bros Universal Disney Paramount Fox Sony

Prime/Sports 58% 41% 47% 45% 42% 36%Network Other 10% 11% 6% 2% 11% 7%Cable 30% 41% 38% 41% 42% 46%Spot TV 1% 3% 2% 5% 1% 6%Hispanic 1% 4% 7% 7% 4% 5%

2013 Studio Television Mix

• All data is Kantar reported; outlier films not included

Page 9: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

• For targeted genres, the disparity between Sony and competitive levels is less

* Genre information is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported. Historical averages above INCLUDE Sony.

Genre Averages vs 14/15 Plan Estimates

Page 10: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

• As BO increases, generally so do GRP levels

• For 14/15 planning, Sony is pacing 20-35% below competitive averages

* GRPs are Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported. Historical averages INCLUDE Sony.

Average GRPs By Box Office vs 14/15 Plan Estimates

Page 11: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Share of Voice (4th Qtr ‘14): Methodology

Primary focus on wide release films opening

on same weekend, week before & week after

Estimates for competitive grps based on

historical film comparisons- not a perfect

science

Averages EXCLUDE Sony films

Page 12: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

“The Equalizer” Share of Voice – Release 9/26/14

The Maze Runner11%

A Walk Among the Tomb-

stones14%

Dolphin Tale 216%

The Equalizer12%

The Boxtrolls21%

Gone Girl13%

Untitled NL Horror

14%

Timing Studio Film Release Date Est GRPs

1 Week BeforeFOX The Maze Runner 9/19/14 1,600UNI A Walk Among the Tombstones 9/19/14 2,000WB Dolphin Tale 2 9/19/14 2,300

Opening Week Sony The Equalizer 9/26/14 1,800Focus The Boxtrolls 9/26/14 3,000

1 Week After FOX Gone Girl 10/3/14 1,900NL Untitled NL Horror 10/3/14 1,975

The Maze Runner

A Walk Among the Tombstones

Dolphin Tale 2

The Equalizer The Boxtrolls Gone Girl Untitled NL Horror

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

Ave w/out Boxtrolls:

1,955

Average: 2,130

Page 13: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Gone Girl12%

Untitled NL Horror

13%

The In-terview

10%

Alex/Bad Day14%

The Judge14%

The Best of Me10%

Dracula Untold

12%

The Book of Life14%

Gone Girl

Untitled NL H

orror

The I

ntervie

w

Alex/B

ad Day

The J

udge

The B

est of M

e

Dracula

Untold

The B

ook of L

ife600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Average = 1,970

Timing Studio Film Release Date Est GRPs

1 Week Before FOX Gone Girl 10/3/2014 1,900NL Untitled NL Horror 10/3/2014 1,975

Opening WeekSony The Interview 10/10/2014 1,460DIS Alex/Bad Day 10/10/2014 2,100WB The Judge 10/10/2014 2,150

1 Week AfterREL The Best of Me 10/17/2014 1,550UNI Dracula Untold 10/17/2014 1,900FOX The Book of Life 10/17/2014 2,200

“The Interview” Share of Voice – Release 10/10/14

Page 14: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

“Fury” Share of Voice – Release 11/14/14

Interstellar22%

Big Hero 622%

Fury13%

Dumb and Dumber To

15%

Hunger Games8%

McFarland19%

Timing Studio Film Release Date Est GRPs

1 Week Before PAR Interstellar 11/7/14 2,300DIS Big Hero 6 11/7/14 2,400

Opening Week Sony Fury 11/14/14 1,345UNI Dumb and Dumber To 11/14/14 1,600

1 Week After LG Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt. 1 11/21/14 1,050DIS McFarland 11/21/14 2,000

Two films opening on Thanksgiving (2 wks after Fury) will also have SOV in our window:WB Horrible Bosses 2 11/26/14 2,000

FOX/DW The Penguins of Madagascar 11/26/14 3,800

Interstellar Big Hero 6 Fury Dumb and Dumber To

Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt. 1

McFarland500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

Average = 1,870

Ave w/out Hunger Games:

2,075

Page 15: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

“Annie” Share of Voice – Release 12/19/14

Inherent Vice6%

Exodus10%

Paddington11%

Annie9%

The Hobbit: Battle11%Night/Museum

13%

Cameron Crowe Un-

titled7%

Sequel to Hot Tub Time

Machine10%

Unbroken10%

Into the Woods11%

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

Average = 2,235

Timing Studio Film Release Date Est GRPs

1 Week BeforeWB Inherent Vice 12/12/14 (Ltd) 1,265FOX Exodus 12/12/14 2,100

WEIN Paddington 12/12/14 2,300

Opening WeekSony Annie 12/19/14 1,850WB The Hobbit: Battle/Five Armies 12/19/14 2,160FOX Night/Museum: Secret of Tomb 12/19/14 2,700

1 Week After

Sony Cameron Crowe Untitled 12/25/14 1,500PAR Sequel to Hot Tub Time Machine 12/25/14 2,000UNI Unbroken 12/25/14 2,100DIS Into the Woods 12/25/14 2,300

Average does NOT include Annie or Cameron Crowe (Sony) or Inherent Vice (ltd release)

Page 16: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Film Current Plan Incremental Ask Revised Totals

  Budget GRPs SPE Net $ Details Budget GRPs

           

           

The Equalizer $29,955 1,800 $2,300 Adds 150 GRPs to w/o 8/18 $32,255 1,950

      --Allows for an early frequency stunt 6 wks out    

      to get a jump on Walk Among Tombstones    

      & Gone Girl    

             

           

           

The Interview $24,955 1,460 $5,000 Adds 190 GRPs & Digital / Radio / OOH $29,955 1,650

      TV: Increases Prime & breadth/freq in Cable    

      Digital: Increases YouTube & Social    

      Radio: Deeper mkt & station list    

      OOH: Add'l freq in LA & 6-wk flight    

             

           

           

Fury $28,455 1,345 $5,500 Adds 455 GRPs throughout plan $33,955 1,800

      --Increases weight in all dayparts to be more in    

      line with competitive levels    

             

           

           

Annie $34,095 1,850 $3,500 Adds 150-200 GRPs & Radio $37,595 2,000 - 2,050

      --Increases overall TV weight w/more breadth    

      --Allows for early-out stunt    

             

4Q’14 Incremental Media Budget Submissions

Page 17: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

APPENDIX

Page 18: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Fox 14 Films Total 13 Films Analyzed Total CY Box Office: $1.06B

Adult31% (4)

Comedy15% (2)

Fam/Animated31% (4)

Event23% (3)

FILM RELEASE DATE

OW (MM)

LIFETIME (MM) GRPS

Turbo 7/17 $21 $83 3,948The Croods 3/22 $44 $187 3,525

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty 12/25 $13 $58 2,622Epic 5/24 $36 $108 2,327

Walking With Dinosaurs 12/20 $7 $36 2,206

The Heat 6/28 $39 $160 2,186Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters 8/7 $14 $69 2,059

The Wolverine 7/26 $53 $133 1,996Broken City 1/18 $8 $20 1,922

A Good Day To Die Hard 2/14 $25 $67 1,778The Counselor 10/25 $8 $17 1,628The Internship 6/7 $17 $45 1,455

Runner Runner 10/4 $8 $19 1,304

The Book Thief 11/8 $0 $21 522

Average GRPs: 2,225

* All data is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported

Page 19: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Warner Bros.

Action17% (3)

Adult18% (3)

Comedy24% (4)

Targeted17% (3)

Event24% (4)

18 Films Total 17 Films Analyzed Total CY Box Office: $1.86B

FILM RELEASE DATE

OW (MM)

LIFETIME (MM) GRPS

Jack The Giant Slayer 3/1 $27 $65 2,609We're the Millers 8/7 $26 $150 2,388

Pacific Rim 7/12 $37 $102 2,339Gangster Squad 1/11 $17 $46 2,259Grudge Match 12/25 $7 $30 2,151

Gravity 10/4 $56 $272 2,126The Great Gatsby (2013) 5/10 $50 $145 2,106

Bullet to the Head 2/1 $4 $9 2,08942 4/12 $27 $95 2,079

Man of Steel 6/14 $117 $291 2,004Prisoners 9/20 $21 $61 1,974

Beautiful Creatures 2/14 $8 $19 1,962The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug 12/13 $74 $257 1,921

The Conjuring 7/19 $42 $137 1,887The Incredible Burt Wonderstone 3/15 $10 $23 1,813

The Hangover Part III 5/23 $42 $112 1,685Getaway 8/30 $5 $11 1,111

Her 12/18 $0 $25 471

Average GRPs:2,030

* All data is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported

Page 20: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Paramount

Action25% (2)

Adult13% (1)

Comedy25% (2)

Event37% (3)

8 Films Total 8 Films Analyzed Total CY Box Office: $967MM

FILM RELEASE DATE

OW (MM)

LIFETIME (MM) GRPS

G.I. Joe: Retaliation 3/28 $41 $123 2,581

Star Trek Into Darkness 5/16 $70 $229 2,435

World War Z 6/21 $66 $202 2,392

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters 1/25 $20 $56 1,908

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues 12/18 $27 $127 1,752

Pain and Gain 4/26 $20 $50 1,750

The Wolf of Wall Street 12/25 $18 $117 1,633

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa 10/25 $32 $102 1,472

Average GRPs: 1,990

* All data is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported

Page 21: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Buena Vista 10 Films Total 10 Films Analyzed Total CY Box Office: $1.71B

Adult20% (2)

Comedy10% (1)

Fam/Animated30% (3)

Event40% (4)

FILM RELEASE DATE

OW (MM)

LIFETIME (MM) GRPS

Planes 8/9 $22 $90 2,585

Monsters University 6/21 $82 $268 2,142

Frozen 11/27 $67 $398 2,087

The Lone Ranger 7/3 $29 $89 2,030

Oz The Great & Powerful 3/8 $79 $235 1,975

Saving Mr. Banks 12/20 $9 $83 1,951

Iron Man 3 5/3 $174 $409 1,716

Thor: The Dark World 11/8 $86 $206 1,696

The Fifth Estate 10/18 $2 $3 1,676

Delivery Man 11/22 $8 $31 1,518

Average GRPs: 1,940

* All data is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported

Page 22: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Universal 15 Films Total 11 Films Analyzed Total CY Box Office: $1.43B

Average GRPs: 1,765

Action27% (3)

Adult9% (1)

Comedy10% (1)

Fam / Animated9% (1)

Tar-geted27% (3)

Event18% (2)

FILM RELEASE DATE

OW (MM)

LIFETIME (MM) GRPS

Despicable Me 2 7/3 $84 $368 3,2132 Guns 8/2 $27 $76 2,195

Oblivion 4/19 $37 $89 1,907Identity Thief 2/8 $35 $135 1,898

Fast & Furious 6 5/24 $97 $239 1,855Rush 9/27 $10 $27 1,568

47 Ronin 12/25 $10 $38 1,478RIPD 7/19 $13 $34 1,455

About Time 11/8 $5 $15 1,387Kick-Ass 2 8/16 $13 $29 1,278

The Best Man Holiday 11/15 $30 $71 1,166Jurassic Park 3D 4/5 $35 $45 1,186

Purge 6/7 $34 $64 879Riddick 9/6 $19 $42 735Mama 1/18 $28 $72 459

* All data is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported

Page 23: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

FILM RELEASE DATE

OW (MM)

LIFETIME (MM) GRPS

Cloudy 2 9/27 $34 $118 2,487Smurfs 2 7/31 $18 $71 2,307

Captain Phillips 10/11 $26 $107 2,011Grown Ups 2 7/12 $42 $134 1,991

Zero Dark Thirty 1/11 $24 $96 1,974Elysium 8/9 $30 $93 1,704

White House Down 6/28 $25 $73 1,673This is the End 6/12 $21 $101 1,646

After Earth 5/31 $28 $61 1,610American Hustle 12/20 $19 $150 1,474

The Mortal Instruments 8/21 $9 $31 1,373The Call 3/15 $17 $52 1,270

Evil Dead (2013) 4/5 $26 $54 1,201Carrie 10/18 $16 $35 1,185

Battle of the Year 9/20 $5 $9 931One Direction: This is Us 8/30 $16 $29 563

Sony 16 Films Total 14 Films Analyzed Total CY Box Office: $1.14B

Adult22% (3)

Comedy14% (2)

Fam/Ani-

mated14% (2)

Tar-geted29% (4)

Event21% (3)

Average GRPs: 1,705

* All data is Kantar reported – typically 10-15% under reported

Page 24: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Ebiquity Audit: Methodology

Audit of 6 films – national media only Approach looks to capture both cost & quality

Ebiquity utilizes a cost pool for portion of analysis (3 other studios, all info is confidential so unable to confirm which studios participate).

For quality metrics, able to use a broader spectrum of comparative films (similar target audience, time of year).

Focuses on one target audience per film. Does NOT measure promotional added value.

Page 25: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Ebiquity Audit Results

Cost discounts: -16 Overall vs Ebiquity studio

pool of costs

Quality index: 101 Grps vs Goal (92) Flighting (107) Targeting (100) Top Programs / Network Prime (103) Average Cable Rating (99) Reach (104) Position in Pod (100)

OVERALL “STRETCH” SCORE: 19

Stretch Comparisons- Studio A: 13, Studio B: 12 & Studio C: 2

Page 26: 2013 Competitive Overview June 11, 2014. 2013 Competitive Update: Methodology  Calendar Year Analysis  Competitive GRP and Spending Analysis for TV

Ebiquity Audit Results

Ebiquity calculates the value of the “cost discounts” combined with “quality” of the buys for a total additional value of….

$19.47 million*

*Based upon measured $101.7 Mil investment = 19%