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2012 World Pulpwood Study

Study Highlights:

How resources will be allocated to accommodate accelerated

global demand for pulp

What record pulpwood demand will mean for fiber prices,

investment/divestment in pulp, and international trade of wood

fiber

How the vast areas of high-yield plantation forests in South

America and Asia will satisfy announced capacity investment and

production targets for pulp

Which countries are most exposed to industry restructuring and

consolidation

How trade of wood fiber, pulp and paper will adjust to regional

costs and market developments

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Study provides a comprehensive outlook and analysis of primary pulpwood markets around

the globe.

RISI's World Pulpwood Study provides a unique overview of global pulpwood markets, detailing end-use

markets, production, demand, trade and prices of pulpwood fiber by country. The analysis provides

unique transparency, quantifying expected market developments and the implications for global regional

pulpwood prices and markets. The analysis includes assumptions detailed from stump to mill. This ten-

year outlook is the culmination of two years of work by a team of RISI economists and is the only study of

its kind available in the market today.

Real prices for pulpwood have been tracking downward for the last 15 years on a global-weighted basis.

At the same time the world's pulpwood supply potential has been rapidly expanding.

Barring a surge in global economic activity, price gains will likely be mixed as some regions invest heavily

in new pulp and paper capacity while other countries contend with low profit margins and forced closure.

Over the next ten years, pulpwood consumption in the mature economies of North America and Western

Europe will drift down from current levels. Meanwhile, Asia and Latin America will continue to be the growth

engines for global consumption of logs. As pulp markets shift toward developing regions, correlative

changes are expected to follow – such as shifts in species mix and desired log grades. These changes

evoke many questions, many of which will be answered in this study.

The World Pulpwood Study answers:

How resources will be allocated to accommodate accelerated global demand for pulp

What record pulpwood demand will mean for fiber prices, investment/divestment in pulp, and international trade of wood

fiber

How the vast areas of high-yield plantation forests in South America and Asia will satisfy announced capacity investment

and production targets for pulp

Which countries are most exposed to industry restructuring and consolidation

How trade of wood fiber, pulp and paper will adjust to regional costs and market developments

5/28/2015 2012 World Pulpwood Study

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The World Pulpwood Study includes:

Historical pulpwood log and chip price analysis

Provides global and regional perspectives, analyses and outlooks

Forecasted pulpwood log and chip prices for all major producing regions by species until 2021

Detailed regional supply profiles

Analysis of global pulpwood log and chip consumption and fiber furnish

Review of global pulpwood trade

Study Authors

Peter Barynin, Principle Economist, Timber, RISI

Peter Barynin is RISI's lead economist forecasting US and Canadian regional woodfiber prices for the

Timber Service. Prior to rejoining RISI, Peter was President of Resource Vision, a company specializing

in economic analysis of the forest sector. Peter also served as a Branch Manager for the Ontario Ministry

of Natural Resources' where he recommended and administered government financing of mill

reconfigurations. With the Ontario government, Peter also held the position of Timber Pricing Specialist,

setting the prices for all Crown timber sold from Ontario's 22 million acres of forestlands.

A large part of Peter's experience was as an economist with RISI. His specialties included global woodfiber issues,

natural resource modeling, international trade, corporate restructuring, competition analysis, timberland market structures

and biomass industries. Peter also taught at Harvard University, leading the curriculum in Environmental Economic

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Assessment Methodology in the Kennedy School of Government. Peter holds a Masters Degree in Economics from the

University of British Columbia, and a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree from Queen's University, Canada.

Waqas Ghouri, Timber Economist, RISI

Waqas Ghouri specializes in the analysis of timber and forest product markets. His accomplishments

include producing RISI's assessment of North America's biomass supply and the Global Wood Fiber

Database. Waqas writes regularly for RISI's World Timber Price Quarterly. His specialties include

econometrics, statistical modeling, regression analysis and price forecasting.

Before joining RISI, Waqas worked as a Research Associate at the International Finance Department,

University of Southern Illinois, Carbondale. He has taught finance at Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, and mathematics

at Lahore University of Management Sciences. Waqas holds a Masters Degree in Economics from Simon Fraser

University, Vancouver, and a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree in Economics and Mathematics from Lahore University of

Management Sciences, Pakistan.

Study Outline

Executive Summary

Executive Summary and Price Forecasts

Pulpwood Supply and Emerging Plantation Resources

Forest Industry Demand, Capacity and Production

Pulpwood Harvest Demand

Pulpwood Log and Chip Trade

Appendix A: Price Forecast Tables

Appendix B: Detailed Country Demand Tables – ONLY AVAILABLE VIA CORP SUB