DLP BRIEFING NOTE ON THE 2012 BASED SUB NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD

PROJECTIONS

Prepared by DLP Planning Ltd

27 February 2015

THE 2012 BASED SUB NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD

PROJECTIONS

Disclaimer DLP Consulting Group Ltd, and its constituent companies disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of matters outside the scope of this Report. This Report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence, is the property of DLP Consulting Group, and is confidential to the client, DLP Consulting Group Ltd accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties, to whom this report has been provided.

DLP Planning Ltd Bedford Bristol Cardiff Leeds London Milton Keynes Nottingham Rugby Sheffield

Summary

This Briefing Note from the Strategic Planning Research Unit (SPRU) of DLP Planning Ltd summarises the 2012 Sub National Household Projections (SNHP) for all districts in England. These projections will form the start point for the assessment of objectively assessed housing need (OAN) in supporting planning applications, appeals and promoting land in development plans.

It is important to note that while these projections will now form the start point of OAN they do not take into account:

• Measures to address the issue of affordability (increased access to home ownership and affordable housing);

• Known capacity issues in England’s major cites, which will increase demographic pressure for out migration into their hinterland(s)

• The requirements of the local economy in terms of integrating economic and housing strategies

In light of the above, for many local authorities these most recent projections will be lower than a policy compliant OAN.

Introduction

The 2012 SNHP were published today (27th February 2015).

The Planning Practice Guidance recognises that establishing the future need for housing is not an exact science, but that the household projections published by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) should provide the start point for estimating overall housing need.

The projections are ‘trend-based’ and indicate the number of additional households that would form if demographic trends continue. They are informed by both population projections and projected household representative rates, and are driven by assumptions on future levels of fertility, mortality, migration, and household formation. The projections convert the 2012 Sub National Population Projections (SNPP) figures into household units.

It is important to remember that these are projections and not forecasts and as such it is important to consider their implications with regard to the following issues.

Issue 1 – Household Formation

SPRU have used the 2012 SNPP Projections as the basis for our assessment work. Assuming these remain unchanged, the difference between SPRU’s conclusions and the new projections will be the household formation rates themselves. Central to this will be the debate as to how the projections have balanced the differing trends in household formation (longer term with most recent), e.g. the trend towards forming households later in life or formation of non-traditional households (3 unrelated adults living together).

This will continue to be an ongoing debate with regard to the type of housing market the country seeks for the future, and this may well have implications for the design of new housing as well as overall levels of provision.

The projections do not predict the impact that future policies, changing economic circumstances, or other factors might have on household formation rates, or overall housing requirements. Indeed, there are real concerns that the recession and the decline in economic activity associated with that has suppressed household formation. The inability of people

wanting to form new households to secure mortgages has also artificially reduced household formation rates. The increasing cost of housing has accelerated issues of affordability, particular in those housing markets where prices have most dramatically increased. With this in mind, the household projection based estimate of housing need may require adjustment to reflect these factors.

This formed a basis for the recent High Court judgement which confirmed the finding of the Warrington Plan unsound (Satnam Millennium Limited and Warrington Borough Council EWHC307) demonstrates how the requirement for affordable housing should be included in Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) as follows:

a) having identified the OAN for affordable housing, that should then be considered in the context of its likely delivery as a proportion of mixed market/affordable housing development; an increase in the total housing figures included in the local plan should be considered where it could help deliver the required number of affordable homes;

b) the Local Plan should then meet the OAN for affordable housing, subject only to the constraints referred to in the National Planning Policy Framework (the Framework), paragraphs 14 and 47.

Issue 2 – Migration

As stated above the 2012 SNPP have been available for modelling for some time. Assessment work undertaken by SPRU has shown that these projections are unlikely to reflect what will actually happen in the future. One of the main reasons for this is that many of the country’s major cities are unlikely to be able to accommodate the levels of household growth that is being attributed to them in these forecasts. This will result in increased pressure for migration out of these centres.

The result will be that the population projections underlying the new household projections are likely to underestimate the actual level of need in many locations as they will not reflect this increased future migration.

In response to this, SPRU have developed a methodology to model future needs in Housing Market Areas which are influenced by major urban areas with known levels of constraint.

Issue 3 - Economic Growth

Economic growth may have two impacts on the projections. First, increased income levels can increase household formation quicker than anticipated in the projections. Second, localised job growth can also influence housing demand. In response to this, it should be noted that Paragraph 158 of the Framework requires the integration of economic and housing strategies so this too can reflect future levels of housing need.

As with migration factors, SPRU has developed methodologies to model likely impacts of future job growth on the demand for housing within a location, and the new 2012 Household projections will be a new input into this analysis.

How to respond to these challenges in site promotion strategies

Assessment of housing requirements at the local level will most likely need to adjust the projections to reflect the consequences of past under delivery of housing. As these do not reflect unmet housing need, local planning authorities should take a view based on available evidence of the extent to which household formation rates are, or have been, constrained by supply. Changes made on local information need however, to be explained and justified on the basis of robust evidence.

The Framework (paragraph 158) also identifies that local plans must be based on up-to-date evidence about the economic, social and environmental characteristics and the prospects for the area, and as outlined above it is also important that strategies for housing, employment and other uses are integrated.

The release of the new information will provide a new basis for an objective evidence base for both plan making and development management processes.

The promotion of strategic housing sites under the Framework requires a sound evidence base in terms of both the OAN for housing and the supply of housing (five year land supply) as well as the economic impact of development.

DLP Planning Ltd – Strategic Planning and Research Unit

DLP Planning Ltd’s Strategic Planning and Research Unit (SPRU) are able to produce a range of projections to test various assumptions and scenarios for establishing future levels of housing provision. Reaching a conclusion over the OAN is only the first part of setting a housing requirement according to the Framework, and SPRU can also assist in assessing the following:

• modelling the impacts that different levels of house building may have on migration, population, labour force and commuting;

• Modelling housing need within housing market areas and identifying those neighbouring authorities who have a duty to co-operate in order to meet the wider housing needs (if these cannot be met within the boundaries of the single local authority); and

• Set out clearly the opportunities and risks associated with different levels of housing provision.

Whether supporting a proposed allocation, promoting an alternative allocation in an emerging development plan, or promoting a site though the development management process, it is essential that proposals are supported by a robust assessment of the level of housing need.

A comprehensive review of demographic and associated evidence provided by SPRU, to provide an OAN, is an essential piece of evidence. The output of this work also provides guidance on the appropriate level of housing provision for calculating the five year land supply.

SPRU has a proven track record of producing and presenting evidence on OAN and the economic benefits of housing development at both local plan Examinations and appeals and members of the SPRU have extensive experience of presenting their findings at Examinations and/or utilising the evidence base to argue for the appropriate level of housing within a district and the distribution of that housing.

Important Note

The summary of the projections over the next pages are households so an allowance will need to be made for properties that maybe vacant at the end of the plan period (i.e. for sale in probate etc.).

Summary of 2012 Sub National Household Projections

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

County Durham

UA 1,475 1,212

Darlington UA 221 181

Hartlepool UA 238 178

Middlesbrough

UA 270 248

Northumberland

UA 743 580

Redcar and

Cleveland UA 187 101

Stockton-on-Tees

UA 649 528

Tyne and Wear

(Met County) 3,127 2,738

Gateshead 507 427

Newcastle upon

Tyne 807 770

North Tyneside 859 751

South Tyneside 409 343

Sunderland 546 448

Blackburn with

Darwen UA 283 247

Blackpool UA 140 166

Cheshire East UA 1,162 950

Cheshire West

and Chester UA 688 525

Halton UA 329 235

Warrington UA 978 826

Cumbria 844 607

Allerdale 150 99

Barrow-in-Furness 46 8

Carlisle 235 195

Copeland 92 51

Eden 127 99

South Lakeland 194 155

Greater

Manchester (Met

County) 10,123 9,179

Bolton 992 892

Bury 581 516

Manchester 2,273 2,123

Oldham 717 639

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Rochdale 461 419

Salford 1,328 1,214

Stockport 907 832

Tameside 844 768

Trafford 905 877

Wigan 1,113 900

Lancashire 2,993 2,537

Burnley 72 50

Chorley 521 430

Fylde 245 219

Hyndburn 103 79

Lancaster 319 305

Pendle 245 193

Preston 302 297

Ribble Valley 155 121

Rossendale 233 195

South Ribble 322 257

West Lancashire 191 140

Wyre 286 251

Merseyside (Met

County) 3,620 3,064

Knowsley 294 233

Liverpool 1,380 1,238

Sefton 645 533

St. Helens 574 450

Wirral 727 610

East Riding of

Yorkshire UA 1,085 902

Kingston upon

Hull, City of UA 618 538

North East

Lincolnshire UA 279 220

North Lincolnshire

UA 542 457

York UA 785 735

North Yorkshire 1,535 1,322

Craven 141 127

Hambleton 219 164

Harrogate 395 355

Richmondshire 77 58

Ryedale 129 116

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Scarborough 183 167

Selby 390 333

South Yorkshire

(Met County) 4,073 3,706

Barnsley 865 756

Doncaster 667 559

Rotherham 671 569

Sheffield 1,869 1,822

West Yorkshire

(Met County) 8,111 7,731

Bradford 1,845 1,793

Calderdale 867 784

Kirklees 1,512 1,394

Leeds 2,790 2,796

Wakefield 1,096 964

Derby UA 988 928

Leicester UA 1,187 1,160

Nottingham UA 936 1,053

Rutland UA 109 106

Derbyshire 2,650 2,258

Amber Valley 409 343

Bolsover 233 195

Chesterfield 237 193

Derbyshire Dales 237 209

Erewash 409 363

High Peak 314 262

North East

Derbyshire 268 217

South Derbyshire 542 475

Leicestershire 2,345 2,154

Blaby 281 238

Charnwood 780 752

Harborough 414 361

Hinckley and

Bosworth 375 331

Melton 184 159

North West

Leicestershire 273 248

Oadby and

Wigston 39 65

Lincolnshire 2,772 2,531

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Boston 301 268

East Lindsey 414 399

Lincoln 230 243

North Kesteven 466 398

South Holland 441 416

South Kesteven 597 527

West Lindsey 324 280

Northamptonshire 3,256 3,047

Corby 391 373

Daventry 303 267

East

Northamptonshire 315 310

Kettering 470 431

Northampton 1,164 1,081

South

Northamptonshire 323 304

Wellingborough 291 280

Nottinghamshire 2,753 2,406

Ashfield 462 386

Bassetlaw 369 299

Broxtowe 375 345

Gedling 378 352

Mansfield 277 242

Newark and

Sherwood 432 364

Rushcliffe 459 418

Herefordshire,

County of UA 742 632

Shropshire UA 1,075 887

Stoke-on-Trent

UA 471 434

Telford and

Wrekin UA 495 404

Staffordshire 2,497 2,091

Cannock Chase 313 255

East Staffordshire 479 435

Lichfield 357 299

Newcastle-under-

Lyme 257 232

South

Staffordshire 241 180

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Stafford 424 349

Staffordshire

Moorlands 193 152

Tamworth 234 189

Warwickshire 2,231 2,042

North

Warwickshire 163 153

Nuneaton and

Bedworth 472 426

Rugby 491 455

Stratford-on-Avon 499 437

Warwick 606 571

West Midlands

(Met County) 10,094 9,958

Birmingham 4,280 4,279

Coventry 1,895 1,835

Dudley 629 601

Sandwell 1,340 1,317

Solihull 599 611

Walsall 807 762

Wolverhampton 544 552

Worcestershire 1,611 1,427

Bromsgrove 280 277

Malvern Hills 212 208

Redditch 222 181

Worcester 390 320

Wychavon 313 281

Wyre Forest 195 160

Bedford UA 909 869

Central

Bedfordshire UA 1,674 1,512

Luton UA 1,148 1,074

Peterborough UA 991 890

Southend-on-Sea

UA 826 796

Thurrock UA 813 800

Cambridgeshire 3,018 2,766

Cambridge 268 319

East

Cambridgeshire 604 547

Fenland 468 439

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Huntingdonshire 759 654

South

Cambridgeshire 918 807

Essex 6,137 5,974

Basildon 671 645

Braintree 731 668

Brentwood 301 310

Castle Point 282 273

Chelmsford 699 641

Colchester 912 833

Epping Forest 634 672

Harlow 324 340

Maldon 233 214

Rochford 263 255

Tendring 567 642

Uttlesford 519 482

Hertfordshire 5,805 5,712

Broxbourne 365 387

Dacorum 718 695

East Hertfordshire 832 768

Hertsmere 569 575

North

Hertfordshire 717 688

St Albans 674 648

Stevenage 386 380

Three Rivers 466 476

Watford 552 533

Welwyn Hatfield 525 561

Norfolk 3,604 3,317

Breckland 578 522

Broadland 428 394

Great Yarmouth 392 362

King’s Lynn and

West Norfolk 498 474

North Norfolk 385 367

Norwich 584 540

South Norfolk 739 658

Suffolk 2,780 2,584

Babergh 288 262

Forest Heath 337 314

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Ipswich 569 517

Mid Suffolk 433 384

St Edmundsbury 369 349

Suffolk Coastal 471 448

Waveney 313 310

Inner London 23,222 21,211

Camden 1,443 1,292

City of London 105 90

Hackney 1,952 1,796

Hammersmith and

Fulham 420 452

Haringey 2,184 1,952

Islington 1,957 1,710

Kensington and

Chelsea 139 247

Lambeth 2,008 1,838

Lewisham 2,194 2,100

Newham 2,680 2,244

Southwark 2,275 2,072

Tower Hamlets 3,055 2,740

Wandsworth 1,439 1,417

Westminster 1,371 1,262

Outer London 33,200 31,895

Barking and

Dagenham 1,549 1,507

Barnet 3,026 2,843

Bexley 1,047 1,088

Brent 1,723 1,556

Bromley 1,635 1,738

Croydon 2,401 2,327

Ealing 2,134 1,961

Enfield 2,395 2,310

Greenwich 1,759 1,635

Harrow 1,514 1,417

Havering 1,197 1,306

Hillingdon 1,799 1,783

Hounslow 2,152 1,897

Kingston upon

Thames 1,085 1,053

Merton 1,374 1,270

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Redbridge 2,232 2,114

Richmond upon

Thames 1,106 1,089

Sutton 1,379 1,345

Waltham Forest 1,695 1,656

Bracknell Forest

UA 595 519

Brighton and

Hove UA 1,314 1,248

Isle of Wight UA 531 515

Medway UA 1,400 1,270

Milton Keynes UA 1,621 1,468

Portsmouth UA 802 775

Reading UA 472 487

Slough UA 949 866

Southampton UA 803 836

West Berkshire

UA 559 510

Windsor and

Maidenhead UA 645 626

Wokingham UA 757 660

Buckinghamshire 2,128 2,000

Aylesbury Vale 1,000 895

Chiltern 200 226

South Bucks 320 322

Wycombe 609 557

East Sussex 2,404 2,461

Eastbourne 444 473

Hastings 372 373

Lewes 509 523

Rother 428 459

Wealden 651 633

Hampshire 5,101 4,752

Basingstoke and

Deane 987 852

East Hampshire 450 417

Eastleigh 573 507

Fareham 435 398

Gosport 281 271

Hart 246 234

Havant 352 355

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

New Forest 690 693

Rushmoor 303 271

Test Valley 315 297

Winchester 471 456

Kent 7,437 7,115

Ashford 715 650

Canterbury 562 606

Dartford 595 568

Dover 391 365

Gravesham 464 445

Maidstone 925 837

Sevenoaks 487 482

Shepway 481 475

Swale 863 800

Thanet 693 695

Tonbridge and

Malling 637 603

Tunbridge Wells 624 589

Oxfordshire 2,183 2,109

Cherwell 582 528

Oxford 340 392

South Oxfordshire 411 398

Vale of White

Horse 408 377

West Oxfordshire 442 413

Surrey 4,898 4,837

Elmbridge 375 409

Epsom and Ewell 378 375

Guildford 542 499

Mole Valley 348 350

Reigate and

Banstead 917 869

Runnymede 408 399

Spelthorne 477 492

Surrey Heath 243 232

Tandridge 414 422

Waverley 464 455

Woking 333 335

West Sussex 4,035 4,003

Adur 263 284

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Arun 750 779

Chichester 531 537

Crawley 592 575

Horsham 638 590

Mid Sussex 660 636

Worthing 600 601

Bath and North

East Somerset UA 441 454

Bournemouth UA 903 909

Bristol, City of UA 2,028 1,895

Cornwall UA 2,381 2,164

Isles of Scilly UA -9 -8

North Somerset

UA 1,115 1,032

Plymouth UA 514 490

Poole UA 641 632

South

Gloucestershire

UA 1,139 1,029

Swindon UA 1,297 1,190

Torbay UA 432 410

Wiltshire UA 1,811 1,634

Devon 2,836 2,678

East Devon 530 537

Exeter 395 384

Mid Devon 310 286

North Devon 274 266

South Hams 200 183

Teignbridge 477 442

Torridge 352 317

West Devon 298 264

Dorset 1,232 1,261

Christchurch 195 210

East Dorset 259 277

North Dorset 179 177

Purbeck 96 102

West Dorset 355 347

Weymouth and

Portland 148 147

Gloucestershire 2,522 2,330

Area

2015 -

2020 avg

per

anum

2012 -

2037 avg

per

annum

Cheltenham 496 464

Cotswold 269 265

Forest of Dean 269 234

Gloucester 619 568

Stroud 457 428

Tewkesbury 412 372

Somerset 2,144 1,953

Mendip 429 391

Sedgemoor 527 486

South Somerset 610 540

Taunton Deane 498 449

West Somerset 81 87

If you require more information or would like to discuss the issues mentioned in further detail please contact:

Bedford 4 Abbey Court Fraser Road Priory Business Park Bedford MK44 3WH T 01234 832 740 Bristol Unit 1 Blenheim Court Beaufort Office Park Woodlands Bradley Stoke Bristol BS32 4NE T 01454 410 380 Cardiff Sophia House 28 Cathedral Road Cardiff CF11 9LJ T 029 2064 6810 East Midlands The Old Vicarage Market Street Castle Donington DE74 2JB T 01332 856971 Leeds Princes Exchange Princes Square Leeds LS1 4HY T 0113 280 5808 London 1st Floor 3 More London Riverside London SE1 2RE T 020 3283 4142

A summary of matters that the DLP Consulting Group provide services for follows: Strategic Planning Research Unit Objective Assessment of Housing Needs Objective Assessment of Employment Needs Five Year Land Supply DLP Planning Consultants Planning Applications and Appeals Public Consultation Development Promotion Development Plan Representations Land Searches Project Management Minerals and Waste Planning Conservation Area/Listed Building Negotiation Enforcement Retail Impact Analysis Renewable Energy Planning and Delivery Discharge of Planning Conditions DLP Environment Ltd Strategic Environmental Assessments Sustainability Appraisals Environmental Impact Assessments If you would like to receive a brochure providing more detail of the service provided by the DLP Consulting Group, please contact any of the offices listed on the left and below.

Milton Keynes Midsummer Court 314 Midsummer Boulevard Milton Keynes MK9 2UB T 01908 440015 Sheffield Ground Floor V1 Velocity Building Tenter Street Sheffield S1 4DE T 0114 228 9190