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China – A Healthcare Market with Sustainable Growth? Shanghai - March 14, 2012 Hanspeter Spek President Global Operations

2012 - China HC Investment Conference

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Page 1: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

China – A Healthcare Market with Sustainable Growth?

Shanghai - March 14, 2012

Hanspeter SpekPresident

Global Operations

Page 2: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

22

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation contains forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives, intentions and expectations with respect to future financial results, events, operations, services, product development and potential, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates", "plans" and similar expressions. Although Sanofi's management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Sanofi, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include among other things, the uncertainties inherent in research and development, future clinical data and analysis, including post marketing, decisions by regulatory authorities, such as the FDA or the EMA, regarding whether and when to approve any drug, device or biological application that may be filed for any such product candidates as well as their decisions regarding labeling and other matters that could affect the availability or commercial potential of such product candidates, the absence of guarantee that the product candidates if approved will be commercially successful, the future approval and commercial success of therapeutic alternatives, the Group's ability to benefit from external growth opportunities, trends in exchange rates and prevailing interest rates, the impact of cost containment policies and subsequent changes thereto, the average number of shares outstanding as well as those discussed or identified in the public filings with the SEC and the AMF made by Sanofi, including those listed under "Risk Factors" and "Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" in Sanofi's annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2011. Other than as required by applicable law, Sanofi does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information or statements.

Page 3: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

3

Agenda

Sanofi - Presence in China

Outlook on the HC Market in China

Strategy for Sustainable Growth in China

Page 4: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

4

Executing Successful Strategy to Reposition Sanofi

Deliver sustainable growth

and generate improved

shareholder returns

4

Adapt structure for future challenges and opportunities3

Pursue external growth opportunities2

Increase innovation in R&D1

4 Concentrate on Growth Platforms

4

Page 5: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

5

Sanofi Grew Sales in 2011 due to Genzyme Acquisition and Growth Platforms

2011

33,389m

2010

32,367m

2009

29,306m

2008

27,568m

Sales in EUR

+5.3% at CER

5(1) In 2008 and 2009, Merial Joint Venture sales were not consolidated by Sanofi(2) In 2010, excluding non-consolidated sales from Merial, Sanofi reported sales of €30,384m

(1) (1) (2)

Page 6: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

2009 201120102008

% of Total

42.7% 65.0%

Sales of Growth Platforms(1) & Genzyme in EUR

Sanofi Boosted Sales of its Growth Platforms and Significantly Reduced its Patent Cliff Exposure in 2011

(1) 2010 include sales of Merial. In 2008 and 2009, Merial Joint Venture sales were not consolidated by Sanofi(2) Lovenox® U.S., Plavix® Western EU, Taxotere® Western EU & U.S., Eloxatin® U.S., Ambien CR® U.S., Allegra® U.S., Aprovel® Western EU,

Xyzal® U.S., Xatral® U.S., Nasacort® U.S.; Eloxatin® U.S. market exclusivity expected through August 9, 2012.

20112009 20102008

6

% of Total

27.4% 9.4%

Sales of Key Genericized Products in EUR(2)

21,703m

11,783m

3,152m

7,565m

Page 7: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

77

20112008

3,071m

Diabetes Solutions

20112008

6,540m

Emerging Markets(1)

20112008

2,861m

HumanVaccines

20112008

1,203m

Consumer Health Care

20112008

Animal Health(2)

20112008

Innovative Products(3)

1,786m

Growth Platforms Are on Track to Deliver Sustainable Growth Beyond the Patent Cliff

(1) Including EUR347m from Genzyme in 2011(2) Merial Joint Venture sales were not consolidated by Sanofi in 2008(3) Multaq® and Jevtana®

10,133m

4,684m 3,469m

2,666m 2,030m

449m

CAGR +15.7%

CAGR +15.1%

CAGR +6.6%

CAGR +30.4%

CAGR +4.4%

Sales in EUR

Page 8: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

8

Greater China: Growing Contributor to Sanofi’s Leadership Position in Emerging Markets

2008

6.540m

8%

2007

6.280m

7% 9% 10%

10.133m

12%

2009 2010

9.075m

7.356m

2011

CAGR13%

Sanofi Sales in Emerging Markets (in EUR)

Greater China(1)

Other Emerging Countries

(1) Greater China: Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan

Page 9: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

699m

512m

374m

273m

9

Sanofi achieved Annual Sales in China of ~€1bn in 2011

200920082007 20112010

981m

CAGR38%

Total Sanofi Sales in China(1) (in EUR)

(1) Mainland China

Page 10: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

10

Sanofi Is Progressively Developing its Key Growth Platforms in China

12%

4%

Animal Health

Vaccines

12%

Pharmaceuticals

63% CHC9%

Diabetes

Breakdown of Sales in China(1) by Business

Total Sales EUR 981m

10

Vaccines

Pharmaceuticals

72%Diabetes

22%6%

2007 2011

Total Sales EUR 273m

(1) Mainland China

Page 11: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

11

Sanofi: Well Established in Greater China with a Fully Integrated Presence

Present since 1982

11 regional offices with ~7,000 employees in Greater China

Of which >4,000 sales force

Network of 6 manufacturing sites

Newly established CHC platform

Vaccines with local production

Animal Health with local production

Integration of Genzyme

Regional R&D platform

Shanghai HQ

Hong Kong

Taipei

Tianjin

Hangzhou

Beijing

Shenyang

Guangzhou

Wuhan

Chengdu

Wulumuqi

Nanjing

Shenzhen

Sanofi’s Presence in China

Regional officesManufacturing site Pharmaceuticals

Greater China offices

Tangshan

Manufacturing site Consumer Healthcare

Manufacturing site Animal Health (Merial)

Manufacturing site Vaccines

Nanchang

Jinan

Page 12: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

12

PFIZER

ASTRAZENECA

BAYER

JS. YANGZIJIANG FTY

ROCHE

KE LUN

SHANDONG QILU FTY

JS.L.Y.G. HENGRUI

HLJ. HAERBIN PHARM.

12

2010 December 2011(2)2009

Sanofi Has Grown Faster than its Peers in China and Ranked #2 in December 2011(1)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

PFIZER

ASTRAZENECA

BAYER

KE LUN

ROCHE

JS. YANGZIJIANG FTY

SHANDONG QILU FTY

JS.L.Y.G. HENGRUI

MSD

PFIZER

ASTRAZENECA

BAYER

JS. YANGZIJIANG FTY

KE LUN

ROCHE

SHANDONG QILU FTY

JS.L.Y.G. HENGRUI

NOVARTIS

(1) Ranked by sales value in LC RMB; IMS consulting group, 2011(2) IMS December 2011

Page 13: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

Portfolio to immunize pediatric and adult population in China

A broad offering with a strategic focus on Avian

A leading MNC(2) player in the OTC market through strategic acquisitions & Joint Venture

Addressing disease burden of 90m people with diabetes

13

The #1 brand in the ARB class by volume and value(1)

Branded oncology portfolio covers top cancer types in China

The #1 Pharmaceutical product in China

13

HumanVaccines

Consumer Health Care

Animal Health

A Broad Portfolio of Flagship Brands Across our Growth Platforms that Fits the Local Needs in China

DiabetesSolutions

(1) IMS December 2011; ARB – Angiotensin Receptor Blockers(2) MNC = Multi National Company

Page 14: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

14

Agenda

Sanofi - Presence in China

Outlook on the HC Market in China

Strategy for Sustainable Growth in China

Page 15: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

15

China: Main Macro Economic Indicators Point Toward Continued and Superior Growth

Population in 2011(1) 1.34bn

Estimated Real GDP Growth 2011-2016(2)

Healthcare Expenditures as % of GDP(3)

Middle-class and Affluent Population in 2015(4)

Estimated Pharma Market Growth 2010-2015(5)

7-8%

4.5-5%

52%

5.7

(1) China 2010 population census(2) IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011(3) WHO 2011, Global Health Expenditure Database; country data 2009(4) Annual house hold income > US$10,000; BCG and internal analysis(5) IMS consulting China 2015 study (Sept 2011)

>8%

5%

52%

17.3%

Page 16: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

16

(1) Health care expenditure reflects the total expenditure on medical and health care services, which includes government expenditure, social expenditure and individual cash expenditure. –

(2) WHO 2011: ‘Total expenditure on health as % of Gross National Product’ (GDP): U.S. = 15.8%; Germany = 10.5%; Brazil = 8.4% (3) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Finance

The 2009 - 2011 Healthcare Reform Has Led to a Significant Increase in Healthcare Investment

Health Care Expenditure(1, 2, 3)

HC expenditure as % of GDP

Significant Incremental Healthcare Investment(3)

Original plan

866503

320

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

162,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 2009

5.1%

2005

4.7%

2001

4.6%

1997

4.1%

RMB bn

850 RMB bn

Updated report 1,134 RMB bn

Investment into county healthcare system, both infrastructure and

insurance

1,720

2009-2011:

8.4%

10.5%

15.8%

5.1%

Page 17: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

17

Key Health Care

Reform Activities

(1) NDRL = National Reimbursement Drug List; PRDL = Provincial Reimbursement Drug List

The 2009 - 2011 Healthcare Reform Has Resulted in Opportunities as well as Challenges

Expansion of basic medical insurance coverage

Improving medical infrastructure vs. rural

Providing better access to basic healthcare services

Price erosion for NRDL/PRDL(1)

listed products

Implementation of payment reform by the government

ChallengesOpportunities

Page 18: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

1. Urban Basic Medical Insurance ; 2. Urban Citizen Medical System; 3. Rural Citizen Medical SystemNote: 1 US$ = 6.8 RMBSource: MOH; China infobank; Literature research; BCG analysis (2011)

2008 2011 2015E

815m 821m 822m

14 29 49

Covered population

Premium per capita (US$)

2008 2011 2015E

200m 243m 315m

208 282 489

2008 2011 2015E

117m 257m 297m

18 44 79

Total fund size is expected to increase sharply over the next years

US$bn

Government Aims To Broaden and Deepen Public Healthcare Insurance Coverage

18

UBMI(1) UCMS(2) RCMS(3)

2

11

24

12

24

40

4269

154

+77%

+108% +65%

+28%

+124%

+18%

Page 19: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

Price Regulation Impact Varies between Product Categories

19

EDL products

Off-patent RDL products (Non-EDL)

Patented products

Premium eliminated for MNC drugs

NEDL likely to be expanded and expected to include ~500 additional drugs and 50-80% price reduction estimated for MNC drugs impacted

Pending negotiating mechanism may pose pressure on high-price patented products

Current premium of off-patent originator products (non-EDL) may be reduced over next 2-5 years

MNC(1) drug category Price adjustment

Source: BCG (2011); Internal analysis

(1) MNC = Multi National Company(2) EDL = Essential Drug List; RDL = Reimbursement Drug List

Page 20: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

Healthcareinstitution type

MNC drugcategory

City Hospitals

County Hospitals

Community Healthcare Center/Township Health

Center

EDLOff-patentRDL, non-EDL

Patented

Market Segmentation to Address Price Regulation

Current MNC portfolio

Shifting portfolio focus to

innovative drugs

Expanding coverage for

mature products

Monitoring EDL/BHS(2) policy

evolution & implementation

1

2

3

20Source: BCG (2011); Internal analysis

(1) MNC = Multi National Company(2) BHS = Basic Healthcare Station

Page 21: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

Population of Middle Class and Affluent Expected to Increase Drastically

1%

<1%

21%

7%

54%

9%

3%

27%

34%

23%

1%

25%

19%

10%

35%

4%

8%

Note: Household annual income of Poor: <$3,000, Aspirant: $3,000 - $5,000, Emerging middle: $5,000 - $10,000, Middle class: $10,000 - $15,000, Lower affluent: $15,000 - $25,000, Upper affluent: >$25,000Source: EIU, BCG analysis (2011)

0.7

1.6

3.7

27.2

78.6

202.6

Number of households (in million)

<1% 4.9

12.2

34.3

136.3

107.2

91.0

32.6

79.8

107.4

152.1

41.5

18.8

Upper affluent Lower affluent Middle class Emerging middle Aspirant Poor

21

2015E20102005Number of households (in million) Number of households (in million)

Page 22: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

22(1) IMS consulting, China 2015 study (September 2011)

China to Become a Trillion RMB Pharma Market by 2015

Projected China Market Growth(1)

Growth (%)

600

1,000

200

02015

17.3%

2013

17.7%

2012

17.7%

2011

17.1%

0.0

RMB bn

1,400

400

800

1,200

2014

17.3%

Market growth driven by increasing demand in Cities and Counties

Market growth also driven by increasing “middle class”

Impact from healthcare policies to reduce drug prices will continue

China is projected to generate 27% of the world’s pharmaceutical market growth over 2011-2015

10.0

20.0

610718

845

991

1,162

China will be the 2nd largest Pharmaceutical market by 2015(1)

Page 23: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

23

Agenda

Sanofi - Presence in China

Outlook on the HC Market of China

Strategy for Sustainable Growth in China

Page 24: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

China: Major Trends by 2015

Customers

Innovation

Talent and labor force

Local competition

Small group of customers concentrated in developed coastal areas

Most local companies do not prioritize innovation and MNCs are reluctant to localize innovation

Recruitment is easy, wage increase is moderate, and compensated by improved productivity

Larger customer groups, spread across China, with most growth coming from inland areas

Local companies restricted to low-end segment not threatening MNCs' leadership

Local companies and MNCs respectively invest in and localize innovation thanks to a support of "indigenous innovation"

Challenge to recruit and retain talent, acceleration of wage not compensated by productivity improvement

Partly thanks to government policies, local companies become present in mid / premium segment

More generally applicable More industry specific

Sources: Literal research; BCG analysis (2011) 24

2015Before 2010

Page 25: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

China: Market Demands A Highly Dynamic Development of Set-Up

Fast responding organization setup

Speed and agility to respond to the dynamic China market

Overall Strategy

Different and new needs of new customers (e.g. mid- market)

Address new middle class

Product portfolio customization

Innovative way to approach inland / rural area

New sales & distribution strategy and structure to reach wide-spread customers

Go-to-marketadvantage development

Localize R&D activities

Expansion to inland China to reduce costs of labor, land, and capital

Sustainable stakeholder management

Public-Private Partnerships

JV partners

Talent management

Localization and footprint expansion

Source: BCG analysis (2011)

New and increasing customer segments

25

Requirement for localized innovation

Increasing labor cost

Shortage of talent

Strengthened local competitors

Page 26: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

+20%

Explore different portfolio optionsFaster growth of County hospital and

Basic Healthcare Station (BHS) markets due to HC reform

China: Changing Market Structure Opens up Different Options

0

20

40

60

80

CountyHospitals +25%

BHS +24%

2015e

70

35 (50%)

16 (23%)

19 (27%)

2008

City Hospitals +17%

19

11 (60%)

3 (18%)

Bn USD

CAGRCity hospitals

County hospitals

County Healthcare

Center/Township

Healthcare Center

EDLOff-patentRDL, non-EDL

Patented

Lower price to

play in EDL

MNCs leverage

their mature products and

acquire portfolio to broaden

Innovative drugs

Source: BCG analysis (2011); Internal analysis 26

MNC's traditional ‘home market’

4 (22%)

Page 27: 2012 - China HC Investment Conference

27

Solid historical presence and fully-integrated structure

Strong socio-economic drivers underpinning growth

Well-suited portfolio for China’s medical needs (Rx, CHC, Vaccines, Diabetes, Animal Health, Genzyme)

Growing position in Diabetes by maximizing the value of the entire portfolio

Increasing access to new market segments at the county level

Significant investments in local production facilities serving all Growth Platforms and accelerated investment in R&D

Industry lead in talent attraction, development and retention

Sanofi Is Poised to Sustain Significant Growth in China