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Folli Follie Group Greece/ General Retailers Company update Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: “ESNR” <go> Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) Investment Research 8 June 2011 Buy 11.15 closing price as of 07/06/2011 13.80 14.60 vs Target Price: EUR Recommendation unchanged Target price: EUR Share price: EUR Reuters/Bloomberg HDFr.AT/FFGRP GA Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 29,063 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0.34 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 15.25 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 8.51 Abs. perf. 1 mth -14.0% Abs. perf. 3 mth -25.2% Abs. perf. 12 mth 3.4% Market capitalisation (EURm) 676 Current N° of shares (m) 61 Free float 49% Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12e Sales (m) 990 1,014 1,064 EBITDA (m) 193 213 229 EBITDA margin 19.5% 21.0% 21.5% EBIT (m) 172 191 206 EBIT margin 17.3% 18.8% 19.4% Net Profit (adj.)(m) 88 116 130 ROCE 10.5% 11.6% 12.2% Net debt/(cash) (m) 652 552 473 Net Debt Equity 1.2 0.8 0.6 Net Debt/EBITDA 3.4 2.6 2.1 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 5.5 5.3 5.9 EV/Sales 1.3 1.2 1.1 EV/EBITDA 6.7 5.7 4.9 EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.7 5.7 4.9 EV/EBIT 7.5 6.3 5.5 P/E (adj.) 7.6 5.8 5.2 P/BV 1.3 1.0 0.8 OpFCF yield 4.5% 10.1% 15.4% Dividend yield 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% EPS (adj.) 1.45 1.92 2.15 BVPS 8.73 11.52 13.51 DPS 0.00 0.10 0.10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 vvdsvdvsdy FOLLI FOLLIE GROUP Stoxx General Retailers (Rebased) Source: Factset Shareholders: Koutsolioutsos Dimitris 37%; ATEBank 8%; Fidelity International 6%; For company description please see summary table footnote Lower valuation on domestic macro woes; Buy rating remains on valuation grounds Following the release of 1Q 2011 results and the EGM approval of the EUR84.6m share capital increase, we have modified our forecasts and valuation model accordingly. We have factored in a weaker domestic environment and the impact of rising raw material prices (silver, gold) on the gross margin. As a result of the above, we have trimmed our EPS estimates by 2% in FY11 and set our target price at EUR13.80/share (vs. EUR14.60/share previously), which implies a 24% upside potential on current price levels. Excluding the rights issue proceeds and using the current number of shares, our target price is again set at EUR13.80/share. We stick to our ‘Buy’ rating on valuation grounds and the expected benefits from the strategic partnership with Fosun. 9 We reduced our revenue forecasts for FY11 and FY12 (by 1.1% and 1.9% respectively), mainly to reflect the impact of the new austerity measures and the operation of a new discount outlet village in Athens in June 2011 on the performance of the retail business in Greece. We now look for revenues of EUR1,014m for FY11 (+2.4% y-o-y) as the opening of new stores in the luxury segment and increased tourist inflows will more than offset the weakness in wholesale and retail activities this year. For 2012, we see revenues growing by 5.0% y-o-y to EUR1,064m due to the aggressive expansion of the luxury unit in China in cooperation with the new strategic investor and the positive impact of 2012 Olympic Games on Links of London’s sales. On the EBITDA front, we have reduced our FY11 forecasts by 1.8% to EUR213m to reflect lower revenues and elevated pressure on gross margins from increasing raw material prices (specifically gold and silver). The underlying margin is seen at 21% from 19.5% in 2010, as the synergies from the triple merger and some non-recurring costs that burdened FY10 profits, will improve profitability margins in FY11. Finally, net profits are seen standing at EUR112.9m (+35.5% y-o-y) in 2011, but 2.0% below our previous forecast, while we anticipate an 11% increase to EUR125.7m for 2012 (very close to our previous projections). 9 Folli Follie Group announced a weak set of financials for 1Q 2011, which however exceeded our estimates in all lines. Sales came in at EUR219.2m (-4.4% y-o-y), EBITDA stood at EUR43.5m (-19.9% y-o-y) and net income dropped 21.4% y-o-y to EUR22.9m (18.9% above our estimates). Despite the late timing of Easter, quarterly results revealed a deteriorating environment for the retail division in Greece, encouraging signs for the duty-free operation and pressure on the profitability of the luxury business due to rising raw material prices (gold, silver). 9 On May 19th, the management of Folli Follie (FF) signed a MoU with Fosun International Group, an agreement that among other is expected to assist Folli Follie expanding its presence in China. We are positively inclined on this strategic partnership given the prospects of the Chinese market (economic growth, rising living standards) and Fosun’s high financial capacity and access in distribution channels in China. However, we do not expect at this stage any financial benefits seen in 2011 as the two companies have not yet agreed on the scope of their partnership. Recall that on May 26 th , shareholders approved the terms of the share capital increase by EUR84.6m through the issue of 6,360,000 new common shares in favour of Fosun, which will hold a 9.5% stake in Folli Follie. Analyst(s): Dimitris Birbos +30 210 81 73 392 [email protected]

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Page 1: 20110608 Folli Follie Marfin Invest

Folli Follie Group Greece/ General Retailers Company update

Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: “ESNR” <go>

Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

Investment Research 8 June 2011

Buy

11.15 closing price as of 07/06/2011

13.80 14.60vs Target Price: EUR

Recommendation unchanged

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg HDFr.AT/FFGRP GA

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 29,063Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0.34Price high 12 mth (EUR) 15.25Price low 12 mth (EUR) 8.51Abs. perf. 1 mth -14.0%Abs. perf. 3 mth -25.2%Abs. perf. 12 mth 3.4%

Market capitalisation (EURm) 676Current N° of shares (m) 61Free float 49%

Key financials (EUR) 12/10 12/11e 12/12eSales (m) 990 1,014 1,064EBITDA (m) 193 213 229EBITDA margin 19.5% 21.0% 21.5%EBIT (m) 172 191 206EBIT margin 17.3% 18.8% 19.4%Net Profit (adj.)(m) 88 116 130ROCE 10.5% 11.6% 12.2%Net debt/(cash) (m) 652 552 473Net Debt Equity 1.2 0.8 0.6Net Debt/EBITDA 3.4 2.6 2.1Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 5.5 5.3 5.9EV/Sales 1.3 1.2 1.1EV/EBITDA 6.7 5.7 4.9EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.7 5.7 4.9EV/EBIT 7.5 6.3 5.5P/E (adj.) 7.6 5.8 5.2P/BV 1.3 1.0 0.8OpFCF yield 4.5% 10.1% 15.4%Dividend yield 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%EPS (adj.) 1.45 1.92 2.15BVPS 8.73 11.52 13.51DPS 0.00 0.10 0.10

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vvdsvdvsdy

FOLLI FOLLIE GROUP Stoxx General Retailers (Rebased)

Source: Factset Shareholders: Koutsolioutsos Dimitris 37%; ATEBank

8%; Fidelity International 6%;

For company description please see summary table footnote

Lower valuation on domestic macro woes; Buy rating remains on valuation grounds

Following the release of 1Q 2011 results and the EGM approval of the EUR84.6m share capital increase, we have modified our forecasts and valuation model accordingly. We have factored in a weaker domestic environment and the impact of rising raw material prices (silver, gold) on the gross margin. As a result of the above, we have trimmed our EPS estimates by 2% in FY11 and set our target price at EUR13.80/share (vs. EUR14.60/share previously), which implies a 24% upside potential on current price levels. Excluding the rights issue proceeds and using the current number of shares, our target price is again set at EUR13.80/share. We stick to our ‘Buy’ rating on valuation grounds and the expected benefits from the strategic partnership with Fosun.

We reduced our revenue forecasts for FY11 and FY12 (by 1.1% and 1.9% respectively), mainly to reflect the impact of the new austerity measures and the operation of a new discount outlet village in Athens in June 2011 on the performance of the retail business in Greece. We now look for revenues of EUR1,014m for FY11 (+2.4% y-o-y) as the opening of new stores in the luxury segment and increased tourist inflows will more than offset the weakness in wholesale and retail activities this year. For 2012, we see revenues growing by 5.0% y-o-y to EUR1,064m due to the aggressive expansion of the luxury unit in China in cooperation with the new strategic investor and the positive impact of 2012 Olympic Games on Links of London’s sales. On the EBITDA front, we have reduced our FY11 forecasts by 1.8% to EUR213m to reflect lower revenues and elevated pressure on gross margins from increasing raw material prices (specifically gold and silver). The underlying margin is seen at 21% from 19.5% in 2010, as the synergies from the triple merger and some non-recurring costs that burdened FY10 profits, will improve profitability margins in FY11. Finally, net profits are seen standing at EUR112.9m (+35.5% y-o-y) in 2011, but 2.0% below our previous forecast, while we anticipate an 11% increase to EUR125.7m for 2012 (very close to our previous projections).

Folli Follie Group announced a weak set of financials for 1Q 2011, which however exceeded our estimates in all lines. Sales came in at EUR219.2m (-4.4% y-o-y), EBITDA stood at EUR43.5m (-19.9% y-o-y) and net income dropped 21.4% y-o-y to EUR22.9m (18.9% above our estimates). Despite the late timing of Easter, quarterly results revealed a deteriorating environment for the retail division in Greece, encouraging signs for the duty-free operation and pressure on the profitability of the luxury business due to rising raw material prices (gold, silver).

On May 19th, the management of Folli Follie (FF) signed a MoU with Fosun International Group, an agreement that among other is expected to assist Folli Follie expanding its presence in China. We are positively inclined on this strategic partnership given the prospects of the Chinese market (economic growth, rising living standards) and Fosun’s high financial capacity and access in distribution channels in China. However, we do not expect at this stage any financial benefits seen in 2011 as the two companies have not yet agreed on the scope of their partnership. Recall that on May 26th, shareholders approved the terms of the share capital increase by EUR84.6m through the issue of 6,360,000 new common shares in favour of Fosun, which will hold a 9.5% stake in Folli Follie.

Analyst(s): Dimitris Birbos +30 210 81 73 392 [email protected]

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Investment Case Chinese investor to facilitate expansion plans in China

On May 19th, the management of Folli Follie (FF) signed a MoU with Fosun International Group, an agreement that is expected to assist Folli Follie expanding its presence in China, among others. In particular, Fosun will support Folli Follie’s efforts to penetrate the fast growing Chinese luxury market in the following ways:

1) Brand awareness: Fosun is engaged in the mass media and advertising industry and can help FF to build its brand name in the country, while it operates one of the biggest online shops in China.

2) Distribution network: Fosun has an extensive network of jewellery shops while it has established cooperation with Bailian group, one of the largest retail groups in China, which operates department stores, shopping malls and convenience stores. Folli Follie could distribute its products (Folli Follie and Links of London brands) through these points of sale, while Fosun can provide access to premium Chinese customers.

The strategic cooperation between the two groups will also entail tourism and retail trade in Greece and specifically the attraction of Chinese tourists in the country. This incoming tourist flow will benefit duty free sales (Chinese are regarded as high-spenders tourists) as well as the luxury segment. Recall that Fosun acquired 9.5% of Club Med, which has also presence in Greece (three tourist resorts). FF stores can also operate within Club Med resorts.

The two companies will present more details of their partnership in June 2011, while teams from both parties will work on the business plan and ideas on how to benefit from this cooperation. For this reason, no insight was provided for the expansionary plans in China or the financial benefits (in sales and earnings terms) for Folli Follie.

Folli Follie will issue 6,360,000 new common nominal shares at EUR 13.30 (the total raised capital will amount to EUR 84.6m), with the preference right of the old shareholders cancelled, in favour of Fosun International. The company held an EGM on May 26th which approved the terms of the share capital increase. Following the completion of the share capital increase, Fosun will own a 9.5% stake in Folli Follie. The CEO of Folli Follie stated that the new equity capital will be channelled towards new investments and debt reduction.

We are positively inclined on this strategic partnership given the prospects of the Chinese market (economic growth, rising living standards) and Fosun’s high financial capacity and access in distribution channels in China. However, we do not expect at this stage any financial benefits seen in 2011 as the two companies have not yet agreed on the scope of their partnership.

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Folli Follie Group

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New set of forecasts We have reduced our revenue forecasts for FY11 and FY12 (by 1.1% and 1.9% respectively), mainly to reflect the impact of the new austerity measures on the performance of the retail business in Greece and the opening of a new discount outlet village in Athens in June 2011. In addition, we lowered our revenue estimates for the luxury operation (Folli Follie, Links of London) to take into account adverse FX rates (stronger euro) and a more conservative stance for the Japanese operation. On the other hand, the surprisingly robust performance of the duty free operation and especially the encouraging signs for the performance of the Greek tourism industry in 2011, make us more optimistic for the specific business. In particular, we look for revenues of EUR1,014m in FY11, up 2.4% y-o-y as the opening of the new stores in the luxury segment and the increased tourist inflows will more than offset the weakness in wholesale and retail activities. For 2012, we see revenues up 5.0% y-o-y to EUR1,064m due to Folli Follie’s aggressive expansion in China in cooperation with Fosun and the Olympic Games of London that are expected to boost Links of London’s sales (Links will design the jewellery collection of the Games).

In the luxury segment (Folli Follie and Links of London), we look for sales growth of 5.1% y-o-y in 2011 as the expansion of the distribution network will more than offset the weakening performance of the Japanese subsidiary. We estimate that the revenues from the luxury division (ex-Japan) will grow 10% y-o-y in 2011 due to the greater penetration in China and other Asian markets. The continuation of store expansion following the strategic partnership with Fosun and the Olympic Games that will be held in London are expected to fuel turnover growth in 2012 (+7.9% y-o-y). A stronger euro creates some concerns for the revenues of the export-oriented luxury unit. On the whole, we see luxury sales at EUR535m for 2011, jumping to EUR577m in 2012.

At the recent conference call, the management reiterated its optimism for the performance of the duty free operation on the back of the increased number of visitors and a more favourable mix (more high-spender tourists from Russia, Israel and Turkey). The travel retail unit pleasantly surprised us in 1Q 2011, while the positive effect of the operation of the three new duty-free gas stations in border crossings will be evident from 2Q 2011. For these reasons we upward revise our revenue estimates by 0.5% for 2011 to EUR284m (+10.5% y-o-y) and by 2.8% for 2012 to EUR310m (+9.1% y-o-y) for that division.

In relation to the retail and wholesale division (department stores and clothing/footwear), we expect a mid-single digit decrease in FY11 revenues on the back of: 1) the new fiscal measures in Greece that are expected to reduce disposable income and deteriorate consumer sentiment further, 2) the operation of a new discount outlet at Athens International Airport, very close to group’s ‘Factory Outlet’ department that is expected to grasp a material market share amid current economic circumstances and 3) the on-going protests against the government plans that will negatively impact the performance of Folli Follie’s flagship department store ‘Attica’. Specifically, we see department stores to record sales of EUR133m in 2011 (-7.4% y-o-y, 3.5% below our previous forecasts) and clothing/footwear division to post a 6.9% revenue drop to EUR126m (7.5% below our prior estimates). We view that 2012 will be another tough year for the retail/wholesale division as the new fiscal measures that will be adopted in the second half of 2011, will be fully reflected on consumer spending next year. In particularly, we see revenues from department stores down 4% y-o-y to EUR127.6m for 2012, while clothing/footwear sales are seen retreating by 6.6% y-o-y to EUR117.7m.

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Revenue forecasts 2011-2013

EUR m 2010 2011f New vs. Old 2012f New vs. Old 2013f New vs. OldJewellery - Watch - Accessories 508.8 535.0 0.0% 577.3 -0.6% 587.8 -0.2% y-o-y 6.3% 5.1% 7.9% 1.8% Travel retail 257.2 284.1 0.5% 310.0 2.8% 321.3 2.8% y-o-y -6.2% 10.5% 9.1% 3.6% Department stores 143.6 133.0 -3.5% 127.6 -7.7% 129.8 -7.8% y-o-y -6.0% -7.4% -4.0% 1.7% Clothing- Footwear 135.3 126.0 -7.5% 117.7 -13.3% 118.3 -13.7% y-o-y -1.5% -6.9% -6.6% 0.6% Other 7.0 7.5 0.0% 7.5 0.0% 7.5 0.0% y-o-y 391.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Eliminations -62.3 -71.9 -3.4% -76.2 -3.1% -77.8 -3.0% Total Revenues 989.6 1,013.7 -1.1% 1,064.0 -1.9% 1,086.9 -1.8% y-o-y -0.3% 2.4% 5.0% 2.1% Source: IBG, The company

On the profitability front, a better mix in travel retail (more visitors from non-EU countries) and the increase of the contribution of the high-margin Chinese market in the luxury segment will mitigate the pressure from increased raw material prices (gold and silver) and a worsening consumer sentiment in Greece. We forecast a slight drop of 40bps in the FY11 gross margin, which is seen at 50.0%, as a result of a weak 1Q 2011, while we look for a 70bps improvement in 2012 to 50.7%. Group’s gross profits are now seen at EUR507m (+1.7% y-o-y) in 2011 and EUR525m (+6.4% y-o-y) in 2012.

In relation to operating profits (EBITDA), the management reiterated its guidance for synergies amounting to EUR15m from the triple merger. Recall also that 2010 opex were augmented by one-off costs of EUR5.0m relating to the triple merger, the termination of an activity in retail and other expenses associated with marketing events. We assume a low-digit growth rate in selling (+2.1%) and administrative expenses (+3.0%) for 2011, while we have increased our forecasts on other income (from EUR30m to EUR36m), following their 10% increase in 1Q 2011. We now see group’s EBITDA at EUR213m in 2011 (+10.1% y-o-y), which is 1.8% below our previous forecast due to our conservative stance on revenues and gross margins. The respective margin is seen at 21% in 2011, up 150bps against last year, an improvement which is attributed to organic growth, cost synergies and non-recurring expenses recorded in 2010. In 2012, we expect EBITDA to grow by 7.8% to EUR229m on a respective margin of 21.6%.

Below the EBITDA line, we have marginally decreased our estimates on the depreciation expenses, while we keep intact our assumptions for the net financial results. Note that the group recorded net profits of EUR0.2m from investments in currency derivatives, when Folli Follie suffered losses of EUR14.m in 2010. The decrease of the statutory corporate tax rate to 20% in 2011 from 24% last year is driving the effective tax rate at 21.0% from 31.8% a year ago. Recall that Greek entities will pay a 10% special tax on the EBT of the previous year for 2011 and 2012. Finally, we look for minorities of EUR1.3m for 2011 (vs. EUR1.7m previously) due to the deteriorating performance of Attica Stores.

Taking all these into account, we end up with net profits of EUR112.9m for 2011 (2.0% below our previous forecasts) and EUR125.7m for 2012 (0.4% below our old estimate).

We note that our estimates implicitly call for stable FX rates and no gains/losses from FX derivatives, which means that a stronger euro and unforeseen losses from currency forward products represent a downside risk to our numbers.

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Folli Follie Group

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P&L forecasts 2011-2013

EUR m 2010 2011f (%) 2012f (%) 2013f (%) Revenues 989.6 1,013.7 2.4% 1,064.0 5.0% 1,086.9 2.1% Cost of sales 491.1 506.8 3.2% 524.6 3.5% 532.6 1.5% Gross profits 498.5 506.8 1.7% 539.5 6.4% 554.3 2.8% Gross margin (%) 50.4% 50.0% -40 bps 50.7% 70 bps 51.0% 30 bps Other Income 33.1 36.0 8.9% 36.0 0.0% 36.0 0.0% Administrative expenses 55.5 57.2 3.0% 58.9 3.0% 60.7 3.0% Selling costs 297.8 304.1 2.1% 319.2 5.0% 326.1 2.1% Other Expenses 6.6 6.0 -8.4% 6.0 0.0% 6.0 0.0% Synergies - 15.0 15.0 15.0 EBIT 171.7 190.5 11.0% 206.3 8.3% 212.6 3.0% EBIT Margin (%) 17.3% 18.8% 140 bps 19.4% 60 bps 19.6% 16 bps Depreciation 21.7 22.3 2.7% 23.0 3.2% 23.7 3.1% EBITDA 193.3 212.8 10.1% 229.3 7.8% 236.2 3.0% EBITDA Margin (%) 19.5% 21.0% 150 bps 21.6% 56 bps 21.7% 18 bps Net Financial Results -47.0 -43.4 -7.5% -42.2 -3.0% -39.8 -5.6% EBT 124.7 147.1 17.9% 164.2 11.6% 172.8 5.2% Income Tax 34.9 29.4 -15.8% 32.8 11.6% 34.6 5.2% % tax rate 28.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% One-off tax charge 4.7 3.5 -25.1% 4.4 24.6% 0.0 -100.0% Net income before minorities 85.1 114.2 34.2% 127.0 11.2% 138.2 8.8% Minorities 1.8 1.3 -28.8% 1.3 0.0% 1.5 15.4% EAT after minorities 83.3 112.9 35.5% 125.7 11.4% 136.7 8.8% Net margin (%) 8.6% 11.3% 270 bps 11.9% 67 bps 12.7% 78 bps Source: IBG, The company

The following table summarizes our forecast changes in the key P&L items for the period 2011-2013. The downward revision to our revenue forecasts is attributed to lower revenues from the domestic retail business (department stores, clothing/footwear), while the decrease in our estimates regarding operating and net profits for 2011 resulted from a lower gross margin due to increased raw material prices.

Forecast Changes for the period 2011-2013

EUR m 2011f 2012f 2013f Revenues New 1,014 1,064 1,087 Revenues Old 1,025 1,085 1,106 New vs. Old (%) -1.1% -1.9% -1.8% EBITDA New 212.8 229.3 236.2 EBITDA Old 216.7 231.6 238.6 New vs. Old (%) -1.8% -1.0% -1.0% Net Income New 112.9 125.7 136.7 Net Income Old 115.2 126.2 137.4 New vs. Old (%) -2.0% -0.4% -0.5% Source: IBG

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Folli Follie Group

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Valuation Following the release of 1Q 2011 results and the EGM approval of the EUR84.6m share capital increase, we have modified our forecasts and valuation model accordingly. We have factored in a weaker domestic environment and the impact of rising raw material prices (silver, gold) on the gross margin. As a result of the above, we have trimmed our EPS estimates by 2% in FY11 and set our target price at EUR13.80/share (vs. EUR14.60/share previously). Excluding the rights issue proceeds and using the current number of shares, our target price is again set at EUR13.80/share. We stick to our ‘Buy’ rating on valuation grounds and the expected benefits from the strategic partnership with Fosun.

DCF Valuation

Following the signing of a strategic partnership with the Chinese group Fosun International, we are using a 3-stage DCF model for the valuation of Folli Follie Group, since we anticipate fast growth for 2011-2013 and a moderate growth path for 2014-2015. In particular, we have developed explicit cash flow estimates for the period from 2011 to 2013, predicting rapid expansion in China, which will keep working capital needs at relatively high levels. For 2014-2015 we calculate FCF by using a 2.5% growth rate and use a discount rate of 10.5% and a perpetuity growth rate of 1.5%. Following management guidance, we reduced our capex assumption to EUR20m from EUR25m. We set working capital requirements at EUR67.7m for 2011 which will be another year of aggressive expansion and gradually reduce it as we assume better receivables collection. For the calculation of net debt we used our estimates for 2011, including the cash injection by Fosun (c. EUR85m) and stick to an estimated market value of EUR20m for minorities, very close to the book value presented in group’s IFRS statements.

Folli Follie Group - DCF Valuation

EUR m 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f Sales 1,013.7 1,064.0 1,086.9 EBIT 190.5 206.3 212.6 Less: Income Tax 29.4 32.8 34.6 Less: Special tax 3.5 4.4 0.0 Plus: Depreciation 22.3 22.8 23.4 Plus: Change in Provisions 0.5 0.0 0.0 Less: CAPEX 20.0 20.0 20.0 Less: (WC) 67.7 44.1 43.2 Less: Investment in Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow to the Firm 92.7 127.8 138.1 141.6 145.1 FCF Growth rate 2014-2015 (%) 2.5% 2.5% WACC 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% Time Distance from 31.03.2011 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 Discount Factor 0.93 0.84 0.76 0.69 0.62 PV of FCFF 2011-2015 86.0 107.3 104.9 97.2 90.2 Sum of PV of FCFF 2011-2015 485.5 Terminal Growth Rate (Perpetuity) 1.50% Terminal Value (Perpetuity) 1,012 Enterprise Value 1,498 Less: Net Debt / (Cash) 2011e 552.3 Less: Minorities (market value) 20.0 Equity Value 925 No of shares* 66.9 Target price 13.8 Source: IBG, * Number of shares after the share capital increase through the issue of 6,360,000 new common shares

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Folli Follie Group

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Our valuation model yields a target price of EUR13.80/share (vs. EUR14.60/share previously) for Folli Follie Group, which implies a 24% upside potential on yesterday’s closing price. Note that our new target price takes into account the issue of 6,360,000 new common shares in favour of Fosun. We maintain our ‘Buy’ recommendation on valuation grounds as well as group’s significant growth prospects outside Greece. Excluding the rights issue proceeds and using the current number of shares, our target price is again set at EUR13.80/share.

At current levels, we believe that investors are overlooking the growth prospects of the luxury units (Folli Follie brand and Links of London), especially after the strategic partnership with Fosun. The concerns vis-à-vis the Japanese operation, Greece’s negative economic outlook and group’s liquidity levels are the main reasons for the stock’s recent weak performance, in our view.

Sensitivity on DCF valuation We provide below a sensitivity analysis of our valuation results with respect to the discount rate and the perpetuity growth rate. Our sensitivity analysis yields a EUR11.90-EUR16.20 price range for Folli Follie Group.

DCF valuation sensitivity �– WACC and perpetuity rate (in EUR) Weighted Average Cost of Capital

10.0% 10.5% 11.0%

1.0% 14.20 13.00 11.90

1.5% 15.10 13.80 12.60

Terminal Growth rate

2.0% 16.20 14.80 13.50 Source: IBG

Peer Group Analysis

We present a comparison of Folli Follie’s valuation multiples against a selected sample of international peers that are active in luxury goods, retail trade and travel retail. Note that there is no quoted company directly comparable to Folli Follie due to its extensive scope of operations; therefore any comparison should be made with caution.

According to Factset data, Folli Follie trades 6.5x its 2011e net earnings, which indicates a deep discount against its peers. Compared to its luxury peers, Folli Follie trades at a 70% discount in terms of 2011e P/E, a gap that should be attributed to country-specific risks and the concerns on the group’s high leverage. In relation to Pandora which is also engaged in affordable luxury, we identify a 20% discount in terms of P/E 11e.

We believe that current valuation looks appealing given group’s growth prospects and especially the signing of a strategic agreement with Fosun International which is expected to facilitate market penetration in China.

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Folli Follie Group

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Peer Group Comparison

Luxury Mkt Cap P/E 11 P/E 12 EV/EBITDA 11 EV/EBITDA 12 LVMH 57,603 19.4 17.0 10.2 8.8 Hennes & Mauritz AB 41,482 22.2 18.9 13.7 11.7 Christian Dior S.A. 19,127 15.4 13.2 4.3 3.6 Hermes International S.C.A. 19,810 39.9 35.3 21.8 19.2 Swatch Group AG 17,445 17.0 15.0 10.1 8.6 PPR S.A. 14,852 14.0 12.0 8.3 7.1 Coach Inc. 11,968 20.7 18.1 11.7 10.2 Burberry Group PLC 6,407 22.1 18.9 12.4 10.3 Hugo Boss AG 4,114 18.1 16.0 10.6 9.3 Bulgari S.P.A. 3,674 40.4 30.2 20.3 16.9 Tod's S.p.A. 2,795 21.5 19.1 11.8 10.4 Pandora A/S 2,862 8.1 6.9 6.0 4.9 Weighted Average 21.4 18.5 11.7 10.0 Retailers Mkt Cap P/E 11 P/E 12 EV/EBITDA 11 EV/EBITDA 12 Gap Inc. 7,130 12.3 10.3 4.9 4.6 Marks & Spencer Group PLC 6,722 10.8 9.8 6.0 5.6 Kingfisher PLC 7,367 12.1 10.6 6.1 5.4 Next PLC 4,420 9.7 8.9 6.2 5.9 Foot Locker Inc 2,392 14.6 13.0 5.8 5.0 Home Retail Group PLC 1,900 11.5 10.7 4.2 4.2 Stockmann Oyj 1,478 31.5 17.2 13.6 10.5 Douglas Holding AG 1,461 16.0 13.8 5.4 5.0 Debenhams PLC 1,015 7.8 7.2 4.6 4.2 Gruppo Coin S.p.A. 900 10.9 8.3 4.8 3.9 Jumbo S.A. 668 8.5 8.1 5.6 5.2 Fourlis Holdings S.A. 242 17.3 12.8 8.6 7.4 Weighted Average 12.5 10.6 6.0 5.4 Travel Retail P/E 11 P/E 12 EV/EBITDA 11 EV/EBITDA 12 Dufry AG 2,300 17.2 13.9 9.3 7.6 Weight Averages P/E 11 P/E 12 EV/EBITDA 11 EV/EBITDA 12 Weighted Average Luxury 21.4 18.5 11.7 10.0 Weighted Average Retailers 12.5 10.6 6.0 5.4 Weighted Average Travel Retail 17.2 13.9 9.3 7.6 Average 17.0 14.3 9.0 7.7 Folli Follie 676 6.5 5.7 6.2 5.4 Premium / (Discount) -61.9% -60.0% -31.1% -28.9%

Source: IBG, Factset database, Data as of 07/06/2011

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1Q 2011 results overview Folli Follie Group announced a weak set of financials for 1Q 2011, which however exceeded our estimates in all lines. Sales came in at EUR219.2m (-4.4% y-o-y, +1.2% vs. IBG), EBITDA stood at EUR43.5m (-19.9% y-o-y, +11.4% vs. IBG) and net income dropped 21.4% y-o-y to EUR22.9m (18.9% above our estimates). Gross profits amounted to EUR106.8m (-8.7% y-o-y, 2.5% above our estimates) on a 48.7% margin vs. 51.0% in 1Q 2010.

Per division, the luxury unit (Folli Follie – Links of London) recorded sales of EUR114.3m (-1.1% y-o-y, we were expecting 2% growth), travel retail revenues increased by 1% to EUR39m (positive surprise against our numbers), while the revenues from department stores and retail/wholesale trade retreated by 7.4% and 19.6% respectively, to EUR33.7m and EUR30.4m respectively). Net debt shaped at EUR655m in 1Q11 vs. EUR652m.

Greek operations accounted to 48% of group revenues (vs. 49.2% in FY10), while the importance of Asian business (including Japan) is higher for the group representing 39.3% of total sales in the quarter (vs. 36.8% in 2010).

Key highlights of 1Q11 financial results

EUR m 1Q:11 1Q:10 y-o-y Jewellery - Watch - Accessories 114.4 115.7 -1.1% Travel retail 39.0 38.7 0.8% Department stores 33.8 36.5 -7.4% Clothing- Footwear 30.4 37.8 -19.6% Other 1.6 0.7 128.6% Revenues 219.2 229.4 -4.4% COGS 112.4 112.5 -0.1% Gross Profit 106.8 116.9 -8.7% Gross Margin 48.7% 51.0% -220 bps Other Income 10.1 9.1 10.9% Administrative Expenses 12.8 11.8 8.8% Selling Costs 65.7 64.0 2.7% Other Expenses 0.8 1.4 -44.5% EBIT 37.6 48.8 -23.1% EBIT Margin 17.1% 21.3% -420 bps Depreciation 6.0 5.5 8.5% EBITDA 43.5 54.3 -19.9% EBITDA Margin 19.8% 23.7% -380 bps Net Financial Results -11.1 -11.2 - EBT 26.4 37.6 -29.7% Income Tax 3.3 7.9 -57.9% Special tax contribution 0.0 0.0 Net Profit before minorities 23.1 29.7 -22.2% Minorities 0.2 0.6 - Net profit after minorities 22.9 29.1 -21.4% Net margin 10.4% 12.7% -220 bps Source: IBG, The company

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The luxury unit (Folli Follie and Links of London brands) recorded revenues of EUR114.4m (-1.1% y-o-y) in 1Q 2011, negatively affected by the Easter period. Gross profits fell 7.4% to EUR63.9m on a respective margin of 55.9% (vs. 59.6% last year) due to increased raw material costs. Accordingly, EBITDA settled at EUR26.6m, down 30.2% y-o-y. According to management, Links of London recorded sales of EUR20m (+14% y-o-y on our numbers). The luxury unit contributed 52% of total sales and 61% of group’s EBITDA in 1Q 2011.

Revenues from the travel retail trade were slightly up (+0.8% y-o-y) to EUR39.0m in 1Q 2011 despite a 4% drop in traffic. Gross profits dropped 1.9% y-o-y to EUR20.5m, while the respective margin deteriorated by 150bps to 52.6% in the quarterly. Operating profitability shaped at EUR13.4m (+50.6% y-o-y) with the respective margin reaching 34.2% in 1Q 2011 from 23.2% last year. The positive surprise on the EBITDA is attributed to higher ‘other income’ (from EUR4.4m in 1Q10 to EUR8.3m in 1Q11).

Department stores (Attica departments & Factory Outlets) recorded sales of EUR33.8m (-7.4% y-o-y), which seems rather resilient given the impact of the late timing of Easter this year and the strikes in the center of Athens. On the positive side, EBITDA was flat at EUR2.5m and therefore the margin improved to 7.3% from 6.7% a year ago.

Finally, the retail and wholesale division delivered revenues of EUR30.4m (-19.6% y-o-y) and EBITDA of EUR1.5m (-70.6% y-o-y), negatively affected by the deteriorating consumer sentiment in Greece and the early Easter celebration last year. We highlight the sharp drop in the EBITDA margin in 1Q 2011 (4.9% vs. 13.4% last year).

1Q 11 financial performance per division

EUR m Jewellery - Watch -

Accessories Travel Retail Department

Stores Retail /

Wholesale Other Sales 114.4 39.0 33.8 30.4 1.6 y-o-y -1.1% +0.8% -7.4% -19.6% 141.1% Gross profits 63.9 20.5 9.6 12.6 0.24 y-o-y -7.4% -1.9% -10.9% -27.1% - Margin 55.9% 52.6% 31.7% 41.5% 14.9% Ebitda 26.6 13.4 2.5 1.5 -0.4 y-o-y -30.2% 50.6% 1.2% -70.6% - Margin 23.2% 34.2% 7.3% 4.9% -21.4% Source: IBG, The company

On the whole, we point out the positive surprise from the travel retail business (despite lower traffic) and the satisfactory performance of the luxury segment given the negative environment in Japan and the later celebration of Easter this year, while the operation of the gas stations will positively affect group’s performance from 2Q11.

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Conference call highlights The key points of Folli Follie’s conference call are summarized below:

• The management highlighted that 1Q11 results are not comparable to those in the respective period of 2010 due to the later Easter celebration this year, the first negative signs of the disastrous earthquake in Japan and the pressure in raw material prices in the luxury business, adding that Folli Follie brand did well in a quite difficult environment.

• Capex will reach EUR20m in 2011, while synergies of c. EUR2.5m were achieved in 1Q11. The management reiterated its guidance for total synergies of EUR15m in 2011.

• The CEO appeared very optimistic for the performance of travel retail throughout 2011 given the strong performance in April and May and the quality of tourism (high spender tourists from Russia, Israel and Turkey), pointing to an EBITDA margin of 30-32% for the year.

• The management attributed the weak performance of retail operations (department stores, clothing/footwear) to Easter and the strikes that affected the trading in the center of Athens. Revenues showed some improvement in April-May against 1Q 11, but the environment remains difficult for the retail business.

• Regarding the performance of the luxury business in April and May, the management revealed that there is acceleration in revenues (with the exception of Japan) and pressure from increased raw material prices. The company disclosed that it will scale down the Japanese operation to preserve its margins and focus on the Chinese market.

• The management did not provide any guidance for 2011, mentioning that it will come back with some estimates with the announcement of 2Q11 results.

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Folli Follie Group: Summary tables PROFIT & LOSS (EURm) 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013eSales 937 993 990 1,014 1,064 1,087Cost of Sales & Operating Costs -746 -793 -796 -801 -835 -851Non Recurrent Expenses/Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EBITDA 191 199 193 213 229 236EBITDA (adj.)* 191 199 193 213 229 236Depreciation -19.1 -21.9 -21.7 -22.3 -22.8 -23.4EBITA 172 178 172 191 206 213EBITA (adj)* 172 178 172 191 206 213Amortisations and Write Downs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EBIT 172 178 172 191 206 213EBIT (adj.)* 172 178 172 191 206 213Net Financial Interest -43.1 -31.6 -35.1 -40.4 -39.2 -36.8Other Financials 0.8 11.8 -11.9 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Non Recurrent Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings Before Tax (EBT) 130 158 125 147 164 173Tax -30.4 -42.5 -39.6 -32.9 -37.2 -34.6Tax rate 23.4% 27.0% 31.8% 22.4% 22.7% 20.0%Discontinued Operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Minorities -22.3 -1.8 -1.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5Net Profit (reported) 77 113 83 113 126 137Net Profit (adj.) 77 121 88 116 130 137

CASH FLOW (EURm) 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013eCash Flow from Operations before change in NWC 118 135 125 136 148 160Change in Net Working Capital -85.1 -79.7 -94.8 -67.7 -44.1 -43.2Cash Flow from Operations 32.8 55.4 29.9 68.0 104 117Capex -47.9 -29.3 -23.2 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0Net Financial Investments -30.7 17.1 -18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Free Cash Flow -45.8 43.3 -11.5 48.0 84.4 96.8Dividends -23.5 -14.5 -4.1 0.0 -6.0 -6.0Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs) -9.4 -6.3 -3.8 52.3 0.6 0.8Change in Net Debt -79 22 -19 100 79 92NOPLAT 129 133 130 152 165 170

BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm) 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013eNet Tangible Assets 297 303 307 303 298 294Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodwill) 363 361 358 360 362 363Net Financial Assets & Other 21.1 26.8 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3Total Fixed Assets 681 691 705 703 700 697Net Working Capital 409 478 580 648 692 735Net Capital Invested 1,090 1,168 1,285 1,351 1,392 1,432Group Shareholders Equity 376 441 544 713 834 965o/w own Shareholders Equity 261 427 529 698 818 950Net Debt 655 633 652 552 473 381Provisions 9 14 14 14 14 14Other Net Liabilities or Assets 50 81 75 71 71 71Net Capital Employed 1,090 1,168 1,285 1,351 1,392 1,432GROWTH & MARGINS 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013eSales growth 32.7% 5.9% -0.3% 2.4% 5.0% 2.1%EBITDA (adj.)* growth 21.0% 4.4% -3.0% 10.1% 7.7% 3.0%EBITA (adj.)* growth 19.5% 3.2% -3.3% 11.0% 8.3% 3.0%EBIT (adj)*growth 19.5% 3.2% -3.3% 11.0% 8.3% 3.0%Net Profit growth 5.8% 56.9% -27.1% 32.3% 11.8% 5.1%EPS adj. growth -27.1% 32.3% 11.8% 5.1%DPS adj. growth +chg 0.0% 0.0%EBITDA margin 20.4% 20.1% 19.5% 21.0% 21.5% 21.7%EBITDA (adj)* margin 20.4% 20.1% 19.5% 21.0% 21.5% 21.7%EBITA margin 18.3% 17.9% 17.3% 18.8% 19.4% 19.6%EBITA (adj)* margin 18.3% 17.9% 17.3% 18.8% 19.4% 19.6%EBIT margin 18.3% 17.9% 17.3% 18.8% 19.4% 19.6%EBIT (adj)* margin 18.3% 17.9% 17.3% 18.8% 19.4% 19.6%

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Folli Follie Group: Summary tables RATIOS 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013eNet Debt/Equity 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4Net Debt/EBITDA 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.1 1.6Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest) 4.4 6.3 5.5 5.3 5.9 6.4Capex/D&A 251.1% 133.9% 107.0% 89.9% 87.7% 85.6%Capex/Sales 5.1% 2.9% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8%NWC/Sales 43.7% 48.2% 58.6% 63.9% 65.0% 67.6%ROE (average) 33.2% 35.1% 18.4% 19.0% 17.2% 15.5%ROCE (adj.) 12.1% 11.7% 10.5% 11.6% 12.2% 12.2%WACC 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%ROCE (adj.)/WACC 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2

PER SHARE DATA (EUR)*** 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013eAverage diluted number of shares 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6EPS (reported) 1.87 1.37 1.86 2.07 2.26EPS (adj.) 1.99 1.45 1.92 2.15 2.26BVPS 7.06 8.73 11.52 13.51 15.68DPS 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10

VALUATION 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013eEV/Sales 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0EV/EBITDA 8.1 7.4 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.4EV/EBITDA (adj.)* 8.1 7.4 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.4EV/EBITA 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.3 5.5 4.9EV/EBITA (adj.)* 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.3 5.5 4.9EV/EBIT 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.3 5.5 4.9EV/EBIT (adj.)* 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.3 5.5 4.9P/E (adj.) 7.1 7.6 5.8 5.2 4.9P/BV 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7Total Yield Ratio 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%EV/CE 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7OpFCF yield 4.1% 6.5% 4.5% 10.1% 15.4% 17.3%OpFCF/EV 2.1% 3.8% 2.3% 5.6% 9.3% 11.3%Payout ratio 0.0% 5.4% 4.8% 4.4%Dividend yield (gross) 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

EV AND MKT CAP (EURm) 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011e 12/2012e 12/2013ePrice** (EUR) 13.2 14.1 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.2Outstanding number of shares for main stock 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6Total Market Cap 800 852 664 676 676 676Net Debt 655 633 652 552 473 381o/w Cash & Marketable Securities (-) -73.1 -119 -134 -194 -233 -285o/w Gross Debt (+) 728 752 786 746 706 666Other EV components 94 -13 -25 -20 -20 -20Enterprise Value (EV adj.) 1,549 1,472 1,292 1,207 1,128 1,037Source: Company, Marfin Analysis estimates.

Notes* Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj) or EBIT (adj.)= EBITDA (or EBITA or EBIT) +/- Non Recurrent Expenses/Income**Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years***EPS (adj.) diluted= Net Profit (adj.)/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs. EPS (reported) = Net Profit reported/Avg DIL. Ord. (+ Ord. equivalent) Shs. Sector: General Retailers/Specialty retailingCompany Description: Folli Follie is a diversified group active in the design, production and distribution of affordable luxury brands(watches, jewellery, other accessories), travel retail trade and wholesale and retail trade. Following an aggressive expansion strategy inthe previous years, Folli Follie brand has obtained presence in 24 countries with more than 400 points of sale, while the acquisition ofLinks of London helped Folli Follie to put its foothold in UK and USA. The group is engaged in travel retail trade through Greece’s dutyfree operator monopoly Hellenic Duty Free Shops (HDFS) and wholesale and retail trade in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria.

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ESN Recommendation System The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.

The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in short: B, A, H, R, S).

Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.

Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

• Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next 12 months time horizon

• Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon

• Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon.

• Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon

• Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next 12 months time horizon

• Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock

• Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

History of ESN Recommendation System Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage.

Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow.

• Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months)

• Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below:

BEFORE

-15% 0% 5% 15%SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY

TODAY

-10% 0% 10% 20%SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY

BEFORE

-15% 0% 5% 15%SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY

BEFORE

-15% 0% 5% 15%SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY

TODAY

-10% 0% 10% 20%SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY

TODAY

-10% 0% 10% 20%SELL REDUCE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY

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Disclosure Appendix The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Investment Bank of Greece, which is regulated by the Bank of Greece (License No: 52/2/17.12.99) and by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. Investment Bank of Greece has not entered any agreement with the subject companies for the execution of this analysis. This report is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. In producing its research reports, members of Investment Bank of Greece research department may have received assistance from the subject company(ies) referred to in this report. Any such assistance may have included access to sites of the issuers, visits to certain operations of the subject company(ies), meetings with management, employees or other parties associated with the subject company(ies) and the handing by them of historical data regarding the subject company(ies) (financial statements and other financial data), as well as of all publicly available information regarding strategy and financial targets. Investment Bank of Greece research personnel are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement of travel expenses from site visits to subject companies. It should be presumed that the author(s) of this report, in most cases, has had discussions with the subject company(ies) to ensure factual accuracy prior to publication. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Investment Bank of Greece or one of its affiliates or persons connected with it may from time to time buy and sell securities referred herein. Although Investment Bank of Greece does not set a predetermined frequency for publication, if this is a fundamental research report, it is the intention of Investment Bank of Greece to provide research coverage of the subject company(ies), including in response to news affecting this issuer, subject to applicable quiet periods and capacity constraints. Investment Bank of Greece may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. Investment Bank of Greece does and seeks to do business with companies covered in their research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firms may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Securities referred to in this research report are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. This report is intended for professional investors only and it is not to be reproduced or copied or reprinted or transmitted for any purpose without permission. We certify that this report has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy and guidelines. According to Investment Bank of Greece policies, the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece is bound by confidentiality, with the exception of data allowed to be published in accordance with the applicable laws. Investment Bank of Greece relies on information barriers to control the flow of information in one or more areas within Investment Bank of Greece organization. The communication between the Analysis Department of Investment Bank of Greece and the other departments of the aforementioned company is restricted by Chinese Walls set between the different departments, so that Investment Bank of Greece can abide by the provisions regarding confidential information and market abuse.

Analyst Certification The following analysts: Dimitris Birbos hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities contained in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The analysts mentioned above who prepared this report have the below mentioned financial interests in the companies covered in this report……none……

Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Company The information and opinions in this report were prepared by INVESTMENT BANK of GREECE, which is member of the Athens Exchange S.A. and regulated by the Bank of Greece (License No: 52/2/17.12.99) and by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. The compensation of the research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report may depend on various factors such as quality of work, stock picking, client feedback and overall firm profitability. Stock Ratings You should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in the research report. Moreover, you should carefully read the entire research report to obtain a clear view of the analyst’s opinions and not infer its contents from the rating alone.

Marfin Analysis Research Rating Distribution Data current as of 03/06/2011

Buy Accumulate Hold Reduce Sell Marfin Analysis Total Coverage 46% 19% 31% 4% 0% % of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients 0% 4% 8% 0% 0% Note that we have suspended our rating on 1 company

Retail 33% 33% 33% 0% 0% % of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

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Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies 1. As of the date mentioned on the first page of this report, Investment Bank of Greece (or any of its affiliated companies) owns 5% or more of a class of common equity securities in the following companies mentioned in this report: Vivartia, Attica Group, Blue Star Ferries, Hygeia Group, SingularLogic

2. As of the date mentioned on the first page of this report, the following subject companies mentioned in this report own 5% or more of a class of common equity securities of Investment Bank of Greece (or any of its affiliated companies): Marfin Popular Bank 3. Investment Bank of Greece acts as a market maker for the following securities of the subject companies mentioned in this report: Alpha Bank, ATEbank, Bank of Cyprus, Coca Cola Hellenic, EFG Eurobank, Ellaktor, GEK TERNA, Hellenic Exchanges, Hellenic Postbank, Intralot, Mytilineos, National Bank, OPAP, OTE, Piraeus Bank, PPC

4. Within the last 12 months, Investment Bank of Greece has provided advisory services to the following companies mention in this report: Hellenic Postbank 5. Within the last 12 months, Investment Bank of Greece had a contractual relationship or have received compensation for financial advisory services from the following subject companies mentioned in this report: Vivartia, GEK TERNA, Hellenic Postbank, Motor Oil, Euroline, Interinvest, Vivere, Hygeia Group

Rating History 1. 24/05/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 14.60 2. 18/04/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 14.60 3. 29/03/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 15.40 4. 11/01/2011 Buy, Target Price EUR 15.40 (Re-initiation of coverage)

Risks to our forecasts and valuation

• Exposure to emerging markets: The company has presence in developing markets with embedded higher FX fluctuations, while the management uses derivatives for hedging purposes that may generate unforeseen losses.

• Weak macroeconomic environment in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria: Current economic downturn in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria has a negative impact on retail spending, impacting the financial performance of the retail arm.

• High dependence of the duty free operation on tourist inflows that is out of the management’s controls.

• Volatile tax legislation: Our forecasts and valuation are heavily dependent on any unforeseen changes in the tax legislation (VAT, corporate taxation, extraordinary taxes due to the Greece’s urgent fiscal needs).

• Inherent business risks in wholesale activities that relate to the discontinuation of distribution agreement.

• Highly competitive environment within the luxury goods markets which command for continuous focus on product innovation.

• High gearing ratio: The company is quite leveraged which raise concern for its liquidity.

Additional disclosures 1. Additional note to our U.S. readers: This document may be distributed in the United States solely to “major US institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each person that receives a copy, by acceptance thereof, represents and agrees that he/she will not distribute or otherwise make available this document to any other person.

2. All prices and valuation multiples are based on the closing of ATHEX’s last session prior to the issue of this report, unless otherwise indicated.

3. Our research reports are available upon request at www.ibg.gr, on Bloomberg’s IBGR and ESNR functions and on Thomson Reuters website.

4. Additional information is available upon request.

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Folli Follie Group Greece General Retailers

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Banca Akros S.p.A. Viale Eginardo, 29 20149 Milano Italy Phone: +39 02 43 444 389 Fax: +39 02 43 444 302

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CM - CIC Securities 6, avenue de Provence 75441 Paris Cedex 09 France Phone: +33 1 4016 2692 Fax: +33 1 4596 7788

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NCB Stockbrokers Ltd. 3 George Dock, Dublin 1 Ireland Phone: +353 1 611 5611 Fax: +353 1 611 5781

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