2011 year of carbon price, says PMhttp://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/mp/8407606/2011-year-of-carbon-price-says-pm/Prime Minister Julia Gillard has vowed there will be nowhere to hide on carbon pricing with a firm and final decision next year.In a speech to the Council for the Economic Development of Australia in Sydney, Ms Gillard outlined an ambitious agenda for the remainder of her term, declaring 2011 a year of delivery and decision.She said Australians wanted their government to govern.Ms Gillard said the government had to decide a way of pricing carbon that was supported by a broad enough consensus to be legislated.She said the government's Climate Change Commission would carry out its task of bringing together expert opinion and public attitudes.As well, the Productivity Commission would publish advice on the measures being taken by trading partners and impacts of a carbon price on Australian international competitiveness.Ms Gillard said the multi-party climate change committee would meet increasingly regularly through the year."Expert papers are already being released publicly and discussed in the committee," she said."I promise you, no responsible decision maker will be able to say next year that they need more time or more information on climate change," she said."In 2011 there will be nowhere to hide."Ms Gillard said Australia had weathered the global downturn."Now in the recovery, we have to lift the speed limit of the economy," she said.Ms Gillard said the government needed to deliver fiscal consolidation and as the budget returned to surplus, economic capacity would be lifted through reforms to superannuation and company tax.She said 2011 would be the year of delivering high speed broadband and health reform."I intend for 2011 to be defined less by politics and more by government," she said."Australians do not face a federal election next year or the year after. Australians do not want their government to campaign. Australians want their government to govern. We are and we will."So 2011 will be a year of delivery and decision."

Professor Bob CarterJames Cook UniversityTownsville, Australia

Global Warming Policy Foundation

1 Carlton HouseLondon SW1Y 5DB

Nov. 30th, 2010

An alternative view of climate hazard: the basis for policy?

ICEHOUSE

COLD

~100 C

Diagram courtesy Alan Mix, Oregon State University

WARM

CONTEXT – is late 20th C temperature unusual?

The last 6 million years – ODP Sites, Central Pacific Ocean

CONTEXT – internal climate variability and multi-decadal oscillations

After Richard LindzenUS Congress, Nov. 2010

Raw data points

40 C

Averaged data points

Expanded scale

0.90 C natural

0.60 C human?

CONTEXT – internal climate variability

After Richard LindzenUS Congress, Nov. 2010

The thickness of the red line represents the range of the globalmean temperature anomaly over the last last century.

. …. and the  sea ice-cover of the north polar ocean will INCREASE.

• Over the next 10-20 years, Arctic air temperature will DECREASE …..

St. Petersburg Arctic & AntarcticResearch Institute

Long-term Arctic air temperature trend follows a ~60-year periodicity

I.E.Frolov, Z.M.Gudkovich, V.P.Karklin, Ye.G.Kovalev, V.M.Smolyanitsky

CONTEXT - human influence1. Warming (UHI)

Melbourne CBD

Australia

Hughes, W.S., 1991. The Australian record on global warming. Tasman Institute.

Western Australia: wheat belt

So what is the net humantemperature influence …. worldwide?

CONTEXT - human influence2. Cooling (land-use changes)

280

200

100

30 temperature contours

100

80

CONTEXT – horizontal (latitudinal) change in temperature

~180 C in 3000 km

~10 C /150 km

CONTEXT – vertical change in temperature

(moist) lapse rate = ~60 C/km

~60 C km

~0.60 C /100 m

So – take your dog for a morning walk up a 100 m high hill and the temperature will have changed as much as it did in the whole 20 th C.

CONTEXT: CO2 – levels through time

280 ppm (or even 390 or 560 ppm) indicates

CO2 starvation compared with the

geological past

Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1633-1644, 2007.

CONTEXT: NOBODY LIVES IN A “WORLD CLIMATE”

Climate hazards stem from LOCAL geographic setting

Is there then a REAL climate problem?

You bet.

HERE, THEN, IS THE REAL PROBLEM

http://www.news.com.au/gallery/0,23607,5037339-5006020-10,00.html

BLACK SATURDAY – February 7, 2009

47 inches of rain (1.2 m) in 7 days(more than 6 inches/day)

But are these WEATHER or

CLIMATE events?

Worst storm since 1703; 22 deaths; + Burns’ Day storm in Jan. 1990

GIANT STORM ANDREW, OCTOBER 16, 1987

UK

400 m

UNPREDICTABLE

UNPREVENTABLE

EARTHQUAKEWellington Fault

VOLCANICERUPTIONMt. Ruapehu

Climate changeSea-level rise

**************

are just the same!

EarthquakeVolcanic eruptionTsunamiLandslideStorm damageFloodingBushfire

NZ risk

Risk ofmajor costs

***

NEW ZEALAND NATURAL HAZARDS

5 out of the 9 hazards are climate-related events

NZGeoNet

(i) GeoNet is already world best practice – tailor-made to advise on longer term climate change hazard also; (ii) Next, one last thing

025000 Age (years before 1960)

WARM

COLD

HOLOCENE

LAST GREATGLACIATION

Younger Dryas

Greenland

Antarctica

Temperature differenceSummer 40 C, Winter 280 C

3 60

J. P. Steffensen et al., 2008. High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens inFew Years. www.sciencexpress.org / 19 June 2008 / Page 1/ 10.1126/science.1157707.*

ABRUPT, NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Map reconstructions after Broecker, W.S., 2006. Abrupt climate change revisited, Global and Planetary Change doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.06.01

Climate change, both warming and cooling,is a NATURAL HAZARD

on ALL time scales

ABRUPT NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGEis the dangerous hazard

IPCC U.K Govt.Aus. Govt.

*£1,200/family/yrNEW TAXES

$3,000/family/yrNEW TAXES

$-SquillionsPOWER & INFLUENCE

WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE AND WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR?

CO2 taxation will result in NO measurable climate effect. To finish - you often hear it said that climate change is a moral issue

*UK - Estimated initial costs of CO2 measures (“Climate Change Act”) is £18 billion/yr

POLICY: IPCC PLAN A – “STOP” GLOBAL WARMINGCost – Benefit Analysis

T-0.002o C

$60 billion/year

Corbis Bettmann, Borgen Project

“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that

good men do nothing”

(Edmund Burke, attributed)

Feckless: Lacking purpose or vitality; feeble or ineffective. Careless and irresponsible.

The opportunity cost of feckless spending on an ETS

Let’s finish by asking a really simple question ….

Will 2020 be ….like the Little Ice Age?

.………… Or, instead, the Mediaeval Warm Period?

• We need to prepare for either.

• No-one knows!

• Plan-A (IPCC) hasn’t worked, won’t work and can’t work.

What’s Policy Plan B?

Policy Plan B isADAPTATION

Read all about it here !

Brave; and futile1854

The world won’t be“saved” by Plan A(ETS: stop global warming)

(1016-1035)

Stupid; and futile

Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.

RATE of temperature changeover 100-yr intervals

LAST 5,000 YEARS

After NOAA, GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data, Alley, R.B., 2004

Is today’s rate of temperature change unusually high?

From the distribution of δ18О for the last 50,000 years from the GISP2 ice-core

+2.50

-

“Glacial” “Interglacial”(pre-industrial)

Slide after David Archibald, April, 2007The Present and Future of Climate

TODAY

Doubling CO2 from the pre-industrial level will cause a T increase of ~10 C.

70% of this theoretical rise in temperature has already occurred.

(window paint)

CLAIMED NATURAL RANGE

(from ice core data)

DOUBLING560

6. CUTTING CO2 EMISSIONS WILL CAUSE NO

MEASURABLE CHANGE IN FUTURE CLIMATE

The warming effect of extra CO2

TIMING OF INDUSTRIAL CO2 OUTPUT v. T-CHANGE

Little relationship existsbetween CO2 and T changeover the last 150 yrs

TEST 3

After: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

BC | AD

Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp. 552-554.

Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.

MediaevalWarm Period

RomanWarm Period

LittleIceAge

MinoanWarm Period

Late-20th CWarm Period

WARM

COLD

10 C

EgyptianOld Kingdom

(5&6 dynasties)Warm Period

Egyptian (Menes)1st Unified Kingdom

Warm Period

Is the magnitude of late 20th C temperature change unusual?

The last 5 thousand years – Greenland Ice Core

1. Warming since 16,000 yr BP

4. Stasis since 700 yr BP (Little Ice Age cycle)

5. Warming since 100 yr BP (recovery from LIA)

2. Cooling since 10,000 yr BP

3. Cooling since 2,000 yr BP (Christian Era)3

4

WARM

COLD

~100 C

After Davis, J.C. & Bohling, G.C., 2001, The search for pattern in ice-core temperature curves. AAPG Studies in Geology 47, 213-229.

HOLOCENEPLEISTOCENE

0200040006000800010 00012 00014 00016 000

5

43

22

1

PART 1: CONTEXTPART 1: CONTEXTIs the Temperature Warming or Cooling?Is the Temperature Warming or Cooling?

Temperature trends from Greenland ice core data – the last 17,000 yearsTemperature trends from Greenland ice core data – the last 17,000 years

6. Stasis since 1998

6

nss

0.00

1.50

0.75

- 1.50

- 0.75

deg. C anomaly

1960 19801970 1990 2000

Lower atmosphere mean global temperature anomaly;radiosonde record, HadAT2

CO2 = 335 ppm in 1979

380 (+20%) in 2005 CO2 = 315 ppm in 1958

385 (+15%) in 2008

1958 2005

19792008

1980

1. GLOBAL TEMPERATURE WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE 20th C

SATELLITE

WEATHER BALLOON

2. Global Temperature 2002-2006 -- COOLING

4%

CO2 = 365 ppm in 1998

380

(i) As predicted (but NOT by the IPCC models); and (ii) not only not an unusual rate & magnitude, but actually no warming at all

Solar minimum is 1000+ days late

a. The rate of sea-level change is NOT accelerating

4a. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET

Av. = 1.6

Holgate, S.J. 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10.1029/2006GL028492.

Departure from thelong-term mean

b. The area of global ice cover is NOT in dangerous decline

4b. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET

c. The number/intensity of tropical storms is NOT increasing

4c. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET

Maue, R.N., 2009. Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L05805, doi:10.1029/2008GL035946.

The yearly amount of damage inflicted by hurricanes in the United States, 1900-2000 after normalizing for population growth, wealth, and inflation. (from Pielke, Jr., 2002).

The 5 climate datapoints of meteorology

Measurementerror

Station coverageerror

Bias error

T-Rex

• CO2 is a mild greenhouse gas.

THIS SCIENCE IS INDEED SETTLED:

The 6 most important facts are these

• Global temperature warmed slightly in the late 20th C.

• Global average temperature has declined since 1998; atmospheric CO2 has increased by 5% since 1998.

• Humans have an effect on local climate

• We live on a dynamic planet; ice volume, sea-level, storm intensity all change - ALL the time.

How on earth has it come about that ……. ?PAUSE 1

• 20th C warming was not unusual in either rate or magnitude

Australian political party funding Electoral Commission, 2002

Labor Party $35.6 million

Liberal Party $35.02 million

National Party $9.46 million

International environmental lobby groups

Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) US$487 million(46% individuals, 20% governments/aid agencies, 6% corporations)

Greenpeace US$272 million

4

How did all this happen - 2?

TOTAL

$80million

2002

“The task of climate change agencies is not to persuade by rational argument. ... Instead, we need to work in a more shrewd and contemporary way, using subtle techniques of engagement. ... The ‘facts’ need to be treated as being so taken-for-granted that they need not be spoken.”

“Ultimately, positive climate behaviours need to be approached in the same way as marketeers approach acts of buying and consuming. ... It amounts to treating climate- friendly activity as a brand that can be sold. This is, we believe, the route to mass behaviour change.”

How did all this happen - 4?

No conspiracy, but Nero is fiddling while Rome burns

Costs of the Carbon Dioxide Charade

(You pay: climate doesn’t notice)

Spain. Since 2000, each job created in the alternative energy industry has cost US $774,000 and been accompanied by the loss of 2.2 conventional jobs.

Western aid demanded of $300 billion by China/India ($1,900/yr/US family); and $267 billion by African countries.

USA. President Obama’s CO2 tax (“Cap ‘n Trade”) will initially cost approaching $2 trillion ($4,500 extra costs/family/yr).

Australia & NZ. CO2 taxation (“ETS”) will initially costabout $3,050 and $2,340 family/yr, respectively.

UK. Estimated initial costs of CO2 taxation (“Climate Change Act”) is £324-404 billion (£16,000-20,000/family/yr).

7. Carbon indulgences industry – moral piety

8. Big business & financiers – who seek planning certainty; CO2-trading is a ticket-clipper’s dream

THE COALITION OF WARMAHOLICSAlarmists and lobbyists for a CO2-trading system

1. Greens & NGOs (who started it) – power, influence

2. Governments & politicians – who seek election by winning the swinging voters in marginal seats

3. Bureaucracies (IPCC, AGO) – budget maintenance

4. Scientists - $10 billion in research funding annually

5. Church organisations – desperate for “relevance”

6. Alternative energy providers – rent seeking

9. Education system – remorseless environmental guilt awakening in children

10. The media (who relentlessly maintain the alarmism) - sells advertising, and makes them feel good

PAUSE 2

“Consensus is the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects;

CONSENSUS - 1

Margaret Thatcher, The Downing Street Years, p. 167.

the process of avoiding the very issues that have to be solved, merely because you cannot (otherwise) get agreement onthe way ahead”.

New Zealand’s current Global Warming Policy is based on sub-prime Science, sub-prime Economics and sub-prime Politics

New Zealand needs a cost-effective, middleground National Climate Policy to deal with ALL weather and climate hazards,based upon sound science, sensible precaution and prudent risk management (GCM computer modelling of climate is not predictive science)

THE TIME FOR HEAD-BUTTING BETWEEN THE IPCC AND INDEPENDENT SCIENTISTS IS LONG SINCE PAST.

Climate change must be recognized as similar to other unpredictable, unstoppable natural hazards - volcanos,earthquakes, tsunami, bushfires, sea-level change.

Adaptation to climate change is of the essence

Climate change policy:a failure of duty of care

PM – climate sceptics are “reckless and irresponsible”

• Climate change has multiple causes

WE AGREE ON THESE THINGS

• Humans cause local climate change. (so there must be a global effect; all that’s in doubt is its sign and magntiude)

• Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas.

• Global climate is a non-linear (chaotic) system. (So it is unpredictable)

• GCMs are useful heuristic, but not predictive, tools.

AND WE DISAGREE ON THESE

• There may be no warming since 1995/1979/1958/1940.

• The climate change we observe today results from natural forcings. (which is the null hypothesis and remains unfalsified)

• Climate sensitivity is between 0.3 and 1.3 deg. C.

• The AGW signal is unmeasurable (lost in the noise). (despite CO2 increases of 5%, 15% and >20%)

The science is settled …… there is a consensus that …..

Top-ten “reach for your gun” phrases

These arguments are used only to sidestep rational discussion; most often by doctrinaire persons who are bereft of scientific reasons for their beliefs.

He is paid by the fossil fuel industry …..

She works for a right wing/left wing think tank ……

He is just a climate sceptic; a contrarian …….

The Precautionary Principle says that …….

Human-caused global warming has already been demonstrated …..

The Kyoto Protocol is only a first (small) step …..

I understand climate change, let me explain ……

The “Pope” says so ……

When you hear one uttered, stop listening!

It’s just press irresponsibility (cf. smoking/lung cancer, HIV/aids) …..

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Important Disclaimer

This report relates to climate change scenarios based on computer modelling. Models involve simplifications of the real processes that are not fully understood.

Accordingly, no responsibility will be accepted by CSIRO or the QLD government for the accuracy of forecasts or predictions inferred from this report or for any person's interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in reliance on this report.

----------------------------------------------------------------------On the back of the title page, in bold.

Walsh, K. et al. 2002

CSIRO Atmospheric Research

"Climate Change in Queensland Under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions"Final Report 1997-2002, 84 pp.

(Starting Year for all calculations is 1979)

After Roy Spencer, UAH

0C/100 yr

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0

-0.4

1.5

Is today’s rate of temperaturechange unusually high?

Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica). Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977.

Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.

TODAYWARMERTHAN TODAY

COLDERTHAN

TODAY

Is the magnitude of late 20th C temperature change unusual?

The last 400 000 years – Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica

EVOLUTION OF POLAR BEARS

HOLOCENE

CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 1, Figure 1.3F PCM Simulations of Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Temperature Change

DOES THE PATTERN OF ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE MATCH THEORETICAL

PREDICTIONS OF GREENHOUSE WARMING?

TEST 6

RADIOSONDE DATA – NO GREENHOUSE SIGNAL

Will adhering to the Kyoto Protocolcause a significant reduction in warming?

6 years’grace

No. Kyoto will be utterly ineffectual in its climatic influence.

Data for this graph is online at <http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/jhm/AGW/Loehle/>

(required: 20 dates over 2000 year period)

GRIP borehole T; pollen; Mg/Ca;del-18O; lake diatoms; speleothems

Is the magnitude of late 20th C temperaturechange unusual (last 2000 yr, global average)?(last 2000 yr, global average)?

TEST 2e

Mediaeval WP Little Ice Age

A 2000-YEAR GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION BASED ON NON-TREE RING PROXIES

BUT WHAT ABOUTTHE LAST 500 YRS?

HOLOCENE-RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE7,500 yr of record from Scots pines, Finnish Lapland

CLIMATE FROM THE 7639-YEAR UNBROKEN SCOTS PINE TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY FOR FINNISH LAPLANDKari Mielikäinen et al., 7th International Conference on Dendrochronology, June 11-17, 2006, Beijing, China

2500 yrCalendar chronology

Climate change, both warming and cooling,is a NATURAL HAZARD

SCIENCE PART 2

In ice cores, changes inT precede changes in

CO2 by ~800-2000 yrs.

CO2 does NOT forcetemperature at the G/I scale

1 mm

DOES CO2 LEAD OR LAGTEMPERATURE CHANGE?

DOME CICE CORE

ANTARCTICA

10 ka 20 ka

TEST 5

SOME BALANCE ON CO2 -- PLANT STOMATA

Short-term variationsin abundance

280 ppm probablyNOT the interglacial

maximum.

Wheat 60%Legumes 62%Other cereals 70%Fruits 33%Tuber crops 67%Vegetables 51%

CO2 fertilization(x2)Increases the mean

food crop yieldsas follows:

OTHER BENEFITS OF CARBON

DIOXIDEFertilization effect1885-2007

Fertilization fordoubling to600 ppm

WHAT IS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY - CO2 v. TEMPERATURE

~ 1 C warming0

About6 C

warming

0

Graph provided by Willis Eschenbach – University of Chicago, MODTRANS

Comparison of trends in surface air temperature and ocean heat content

-- 1.1 deg. C increase for CO2 doubling

-- Atmospheric time constant for CO2 is ~5 yrs

3.0

4.5

2.0

Equilibrium sensitivity given as increase in global mean surfacetemperature that would result from sustained doubling of atmospheric CO2

After Schwartz, S., 2007, Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system.Journal of Geophysical Research, in press.

2.1

0.1

1AR 2AR 3AR 4AR

Is Extreme Weather really Increasing?

Ref: “Availability and Affordability of Insurance Under Climate Change: A Growing Challenge for the U.S.”, December 2005, Mills et al. Commissioned by CERES.

Natural disasters of all causes, including non-weather-related events.

Lucia Liljegren at The Blackboard - http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/ipcc-projections-overpredict-recent-warming/

ALL THAT THE IPCC HAS LEFT IS THEMODELS, AND THEY SAY ……

Empirical Predictions of Future ClimateBased on the last 140 years of surface temperature data

(i) Here’s why it’s idiocy; (ii) context; (iii) what does it predict?

Steve McIntyre Michael Mann

3. UNIVERSITY

The hockey-stickMichael Mann & co-authors

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/UN_open_letter.pdf

The letter details some of the serious science misrepresentations in the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers, calls attention to the outdated nature of some IPCC conclusions, and shows that balanced economic analyses do not support measures to restrict energy consumption for the purpose of diminishing CO2 emissions.

The signatories explain further that the current UN approach of curbing CO2 emissions is likely to increase human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it - because attempts to drastically cut CO2 emissions will seriously slow development.

IS THIS ALL A SECRET!

103 signatories, including: President, World Federation of Scientists – ZICHICHIDirector of a national research funding agency (Australian Research Council) – AITKINDirector General of a comprehensive national research agency (NZ DSIR) – KEARLaureate of the UNEP Global 500 environmental program – BRYSONRecipient of Mills Medal in Cloud Physics (Royal Meteorological Society) – AUSTINRecipient of Chapman Medal (Royal Astronomical Society of London) - AKASOFU Recipient of Meisinger and Charney Awards (American Meteorological Soc.) – LINDZEN Recipient of the Max Planck Medal – DYSONDistinguished Emeritus Professors – 24 in total

Warm WarmCold

-150 -125 -100 -75 -50 -25 0 +25

TodayLast

Interglacial 2°C warmer than today - with

Hippopotamus inhabiting the River Thames

Last Interglacial125,000 years BP

Key findings from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WMO UNEPR.K. Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC; Director-General, TERI

Sacramento, California Air Resources Board, 27th June 2008

Remember – IPCC set up to investigate human-caused warming – (i) warming at alarming rate, magnitude; (ii) caused by CO 2; (iii) will go on doing so

TheBalancedFree Press

1989 20011987

2006 2007

2008

4b. WORLD MAGAZINES & PRESS

“WHILE the debate among scientists about climate change continues, it is unimaginable to conclude otherwise than that the pumping of a massive amount of carbon into the atmosphere is damaging our planet and potentially endangering future generations”.

The Australian Oct. 28, 2006

5e. A JOB IN BIG BUSINESS?

Lysenkoism (USSR, 1930s-1960s)

Claus, G. & Bolander, K., 1977, Ecological Sanity, David McKay, New York.

Trofim Lysenko, and Soviet science, rejected the “dangerous Western concepts” of Mendelian genetics and Darwinian evolution. They preferred Lamarckian views of the inheritance of acquired characteristics; for instance, that cows could be trained to give more milk and their offspring would then inherit this trait.

1. Necessity to demonstrate the practical relevanceof science to the needs of society (ARC box – CRCs etc.)

2. Amassing of anecdotal evidence to show the “correctness” of the concept as a substitute for causal proof (Gore film; incessant NGO activity)

3. Manipulating data to support the cause, which is seen as a higher truth (Mann Hockey Stick; CCSP; IPPC)

4. Ideological zeal, such that dissidents are silenced as “enemies

of the truth” (attacks on sceptics; the 5 Rules of Propaganda)

“The essence of propaganda consists in winning people over to an idea so sincerely, so vitally, that in the end they succumb to it utterly and can never again escape from it.” 

Joseph Goebbels, 3rd ReichMinister of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda

THE FIVE RULES OF PROPAGANDA

1. Simplification: reducing all data to a simple confrontation between 'Good and Bad', 'Friend or Foe'.

2. Ad homination: discrediting criticism or opposition by use of crude personal smears and parodies.

3. Transfusion: manipulating theconsensus values of the target audience for one's own ends.

4. Popularisation: presenting one's viewpoint as the unanimous opinion of all right-thinking people: use of star-performers, social pressure, and 'psychological contagion‘ to convince waverers.

5. Repetition: endlessly repeating the same messages in different ways.

Amended after Norman Davies "Europe: A History"

Over the last 100 years there has been an increase of ~100 ppm in the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.

http:www.co2science.org/subject/p/summaries/population.htm Between 1950 and the early 1990s, world population X2.2, food production X2.71970-2000 saw a 15% per capita increase in fodd consumption

BENEFITS OF CARBON DIOXIDE

Projected warming from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 by 2100

After Roy Spencer - http://www.weatherquestions.com/Global-warming-natural-PDO.htm

Mr Justice BartonUK High Court

McCulloch, M. et al., 2003, Coral record of increased sediment flux to the inner Great Barrier Reef since European settlement. Nature 421, 727-730.

DROUGHT

End of LIA

Temperature curve, last 10,500 years Greenland Ice Core

Holocene Climatic Optimum

Steve McIntyre Michael Mann

3. UNIVERSITY

The hockey-stickMichael Mann & co-authors

The needed response is NOT global; it needs to be tailored to the appropriate region

Nations each require their own “EMA” or “HazNet”

NATURAL climate change is the REAL danger; it demands preparation for AND a planned response

HYPOTHETICAL human-caused climate change, should it occur, is automatically accommodated

BUT

THE ESSENCE

Illustration: Gerrit van der Lingen, 2008

W. Gong, and Z. Hao (2006), A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03702, doi:10.1029/2005GL024804.

NOBODY LIVES IN A “WORLD CLIMATE”

Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1633-1644, 2007.

Desert

Equatorial

Grassland

Temperate

Tropical

Climate hazards stem from LOCAL geographic setting

30 knots

S windchange

N wind

WindSpeed

(knots)

50

25

0

N

S

E

N

W

WindDir’n

Remember, bushfires, storms and landslides are going to continue to occur in 2020 - either way.

Plan B MUST be adaptation to climate changeas it happens (hazard precaution; GeoNet).

THEEND

Science reality

Virtual reality

Socio-political reality

The way forward