Upload
david4315
View
38.161
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
- 1 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
2011 NEW ZEALAND GENERAL ELECTION
ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BY ELECTORATE, AREA AND REGION
DECEMBER 2011
- 2 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
CONTENTS CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................... 3 2011 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 4 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2008 TO 2011 .......................................................................... 5 2011 PARTY VOTE BY REGION ...................................................................................................................... 6 2011 PARTY VOTE BY AREA .......................................................................................................................... 7 PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2008 – 2011 BY REGION ......................................................................................... 8 PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2008 – 2011 BY AREA .............................................................................................. 8 NATIONAL 2011 PARTY VOTE ........................................................................................................................ 9 NATIONAL 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................ 10 NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE .......................................................................................................... 11 NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................ 12 NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ............................................................................................. 13 NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ........................................................................... 14 NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ................................................................................. 15 NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ................................................................ 16 NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE .................................................................................. 17 NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE MARGINS ................................................................................................... 18 2011 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES ................................................................................................................. 19 LABOUR 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 20 LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................... 21 LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE ..................................................................................... 22 LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE ............................................................ 23 LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11................................................................................................. 24 LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 .................................................................................... 25 GREENS 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ............................................................................................... 26 GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11.................................................................................................... 27 NZ FIRST 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE .............................................................................................. 28 NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ................................................................................................ 29 CONSERVATIVE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE .................................................................................. 30 MAORI PARTY 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 31 MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ..................................................................................................... 32 MANA PARTY 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...................................................................................... 33 ACT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ....................................................................................................... 34 ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ........................................................................................................ 35 UNITED FUTURE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ................................................................................. 36 UNITED FUTURE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 .................................................................................. 37 RIGHT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (National/ACT/United Future) ................................................... 38 CENTRE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Conservative/Maori) ............................................................ 39 LEFT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Labour/Greens/NZ First/Mana) .................................................. 40 RIGHT – LEFT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ..................................................................................... 41 RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ..................................................................................................... 42 LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11 ........................................................................................................ 43 2011 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS ...................................................................................................................... 44
- 3 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
INTRODUCTION This document shows results for National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, Conservatives, Maori Party, Mana Party and ACT for the country, by region and area and for each of the 70 electorates. Generally each page has the electorates ranked in order from “best” to “worst” for that particular criterion. Electorates have been grouped into the five National Party Regions (plus a “Maori” Region) and also have been grouped into Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Provincial, and Rural areas so results can be compared for these groupings. Parties have also been grouped together for bloc analysis. The following definitions have been used:
R = Right = National + ACT + United Future C = Centre = Conservatives + Maori Party L = Left = Labour + Greens + NZ First + Mana (+ Progressive for 2008) R – L = Gap between votes for the right and the left parties Right parties are those who committed to a National-led Government. Centre parties are those who said they could support either National or Labour, and were not ruled out be either. Left parties are those who generally would not support a National-led Government. Note different definitions were used in my 2008 analysis, based on the different stances at the time. However in this document the above definitions have been used for both 2011 and 2008 so that any comparisons are valid. Inquiries or requests for further information are welcome. David Farrar 11 December 2011
- 4 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
2011 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS
Party Party Votes
% of all Party Votes
% of effective
party vote
Seat Entitlement
Electorate Seats
List Seats
Total Seats
National 1,058,638 47.31% 48.97% 59 41 18 59
Labour 614,936 27.48% 28.44% 34 23 11 34
Greens 247,370 11.06% 11.44% 14 0 14 14
NZ First 147,544 6.59% 6.82% 8 0 8 8
Maori 31,932 1.43% 1.48% 2 3 0 3
Mana 24,168 1.08% 1.12% 1 1 0 1
ACT 23,889 1.07% 1.10% 1 1 0 1
United Future 13,443 0.60% 0.62% 1 1 0 1
SUB-TOTAL 2,191,105 96.62% 100.00% 120 70 51 121
Conservative 59,236 2.65%
Legalise Cannabis
11,738 0.52%
Democrats 1,714 0.08%
Libertarianz 1,595 0.07%
Alliance 1,209 0.05%
TOTAL 2,344,566 100.00%
Right 1,095,970 46.75%
Centre 91,168 3.89%
Left 1,034,018 44.10%
R – L 163,160 6.96%
The four parliamentary parties of the left (Labour, Greens, NZ First and Mana) got 44.1%. The three of the right (National, ACT, United) got 46.7% and the two (incl. Conservatives who are not in Parliament) of the centre (Conservatives and Maori) got 3.9%. The wasted vote was 3.4% down from 6.6% in 2008. Conservatives were the highest of the parties that did not make it.
- 5 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2008 TO 2011
Party Party Vote
Change %
2011 Party
Vote %
2008 Party
Vote %
Electorate Vote
Change %
2011 Electorate
Vote %
2008 Electorate
Vote %
National +2.38% 47.31% 44.93% +0.71% 47.31% 46.60%
Labour -6.51% 27.48% 33.99% -0.10% 35.12% 35.22%
Greens +4.34% 11.06% 6.72% +1.53% 7.16% 5.63%
NZ First +2.52% 6.59% 4.07% +0.15% 1.84% 1.69%
Maori -0.96% 1.43% 2.39% -1.53% 1.81% 3.34%
Mana +1.08% 1.08% +1.37% 1.37%
ACT -2.58% 1.07% 3.65% -1.56% 1.43% 2.99%
United Future -0.21% 0.60% 0.87% -0.26% 0.87% 1.13%
Progressive -0.91% 0.91% -1.13% 1.13%
SUB-TOTAL -0.85% 96.62% 97.53% -0.82% 96.91% 97.73%
Conservatives +2.65% 2.65% +2.38% 2.38%
Others -1.75% 0.73% 2.48% -1.53% 0.73% 2.26%
TOTAL 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Right -0.47% 48.98% 49.45% -1.11% 49.61% 50.72%
Centre +1.69% 4.08% 2.39% 0.85% 4.19% 3.34%
Left -0.52% 46.21% 45.69% 1.82% 45.49% 43.67%
R – L -0.99% 2.77% 3.76% -2.93% 4.12% 7.05%
The gap between right and left narrowed by almost 1%. This was mainly due to the drop in support for ACT and increase in support for NZ First. The centre vote grew due to the Conservatives.
- 6 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
2011 PARTY VOTE BY REGION
Party Northern CNI LNI C/W Southern Maori
National 49.8% 54.0% 45.4% 51.0% 48.4% 8.6%
Labour 28.7% 20.3% 29.4% 25.1% 26.9% 41.0%
Greens 9.4% 9.2% 13.3% 12.9% 13.0% 10.3%
NZ First 5.9% 9.3% 5.9% 5.5% 6.0% 9.5%
Maori 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6%
Mana 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0%
ACT 1.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
United Future 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1%
Conservatives 2.8% 3.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 0.5%
Right 51.6% 56.0% 47.1% 52.6% 50.2% 8.9%
Centre 3.4% 4.2% 3.3% 3.0% 2.6% 16.1%
Left 44.5% 39.2% 49.0% 43.7% 46.1% 73.8%
R – L 7.1% 16.8% -1.8% 8.8% 4.1% -64.9%
The above figures are on the boundaries of the five National Party Regions. The seven Maori seats are treated as a de facto sixth Region to allow a cleaner comparison from Region to Region. National got over 50% in the CNI and C/W Regions. LNI was the lowest Region at 45.4% LNI Region is the best area for Labour at 29.4% followed by Northern at 28.7%. They are weakest in CNI at 20.3%. NZ First was strongest in CNI Region at 9.3% and the Maori seats at 9.5%. Maori and Mana parties were at or below 1% everywhere except the Maori seats where they got 15.6% and 13.0% of the party votes respectively ACT support is higher in Northern with 1.4%. Support for the Greens was best in LNI at 13.3%. United Future was lowest in Northern. Conservatives did best in the CNI Region. The gap between National and Labour for each Region was: Northern +21.1% CNI +33.7% LNI +16.0% C/W +25.8% Southern +21.5%
- 7 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
2011 PARTY VOTE BY AREA
Party Auckland Wgtn Chch Provincial Rural Maori
National 49.1% 41.1% 49.4% 48.3% 56.2% 8.6%
Labour 30.4% 32.1% 26.7% 26.8% 18.8% 41.0%
Greens 9.4% 17.2% 13.7% 10.9% 9.9% 10.3%
NZ First 5.4% 4.7% 5.3% 7.6% 7.7% 9.5%
Maori 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 15.6%
Mana 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0%
ACT 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 0.2%
United Future 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Conservatives 2.5% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 3.7% 0.5%
Right 50.7% 42.8% 50.7% 50.0% 58.3% 8.9%
Centre 3.1% 2.3% 2.6% 3.5% 4.2% 16.1%
Left 45.6% 54.3% 45.9% 45.7% 36.7% 73.8%
R – L 5.2% -11.5% 4.8% 4.3% 21.6% -64.9%
Auckland is defined as the 20 seats in greater Auckland stretching from Rodney in the North to Papakura in the South.
Wellington is the six seats South of and including Mana and Rimutaka.
Christchurch is the six seats wholly or mainly in Christchurch including Waimakariri and Port Hills.
Provincial are those 17 seats which have more than 50% of their population in minor cities such as Nelson, New Plymouth, Dunedin, Hamilton, Napier etc.
Rural are the 14 seats where less than 50% of the population live in a city. Labour is strongest in Wellington at 32.1% and weakest in rural NZ at 18.8% National is lowest in Wellington at 41.1% and highest in rural NZ at 56.2%. NZ First does very well in provincial and rural NZ and worst in Wellington, the only area they got under 5%. ACT is strongest in Auckland and rural NZ. Greens are very high in Wellington at 17.2%. United Future also strongest in Wellington. Conservatives did best in rural NZ. The gap between National and Labour for each area was: Auckland +18.6% Wellington +9.0% Christchurch +22.7% Provincial +21.5% Rural +37.4%
- 8 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2008 – 2011 BY REGION
Party Northern CNI LNI C/W Southern Maori
National +0.7% +1.4% +2.6% +6.0% +3.8% +1.1%
Labour -3.1% -7.0% -7.3% -9.6% -9.4% -9.1%
Greens +3.8% +3.7% +4.7% +4.6% +5.1% +6.4%
NZ First +2.4% +3.4% +2.2% +2.1% +2.4% +3.4%
Maori -0.1% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -13.3%
Mana +0.4% +0.4% +0.3% +0.2% +0.2% +13.0%
ACT -3.6% -2.6% -2.3% -2.0% -1.8% -0.3%
United Future -0.4% -0.2% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0.0%
Conservatives +2.8% +3.5% +2.6% +2.6% +2.2% +0.5%
Right -3.3% -1.4% -0.1% +3.8% +1.9% +0.8%
Centre +2.7% +3.2% +2.4% +2.4% +2.1% -12.8%
Left +2.8% -0.1% -1.0% -4.5% -2.7% 13.4%
R – L -6.2% -1.4% +0.9% +8.3% +4.6% -12.5%
National had the biggest increases in C/W. Labour’s biggest declines were in C/W and Southern Regions. The Greens picked up most support in LNI and Southern. In terms of the gap between right and left, Northern had it close by 6.2% while at the other end it grew by 8.3% in C/W.
PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2008 – 2011 BY AREA
Party Auckland Wgtn Chch Provincial Rural Maori
National +0.7% +3.1% +7.3% +2.4% +2.2% +1.1%
Labour -2.5% -7.5% -10.3% -8.0% -7.2% -9.1%
Greens +3.7% +5.4% +4.9% +4.4% +3.8% +6.4%
NZ First +2.2% +1.9% +2.1% +2.9% +2.7% +3.4%
Maori -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -13.3%
Mana +0.4% +0.4% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +13.0%
ACT -3.6% -2.1% -1.8% -2.1% -2.9% -0.3%
United Future 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Conservatives +2.5% +1.6% +2.2% +2.9% +3.7% +0.5%
Right -3.36% +0.6% +5.1% +0.1% -0.7% +0.8%
Centre +2.4% +1.4% +2.1% +2.7% +3.5% -12.8%
Left +3.2% -0.5% -5.6% -1.2% -1.2% 13.4%
R – L -6.5% +1.1% +10.7% +1.3% +0.5% -12.5%
National gained the most in Christchurch – 7.3% followed by 3.1% in Wellington, 2.4% in provincial NZ and 2.2% in rural NZ. Auckland had the least gain at 0.7%. Labour lost the most in Christchurch – a large 10.3%. They lost the least support in Auckland – only 2.5%. Greens did best in Wellington with a 5.4% increase in their vote, plus 6.1% up in Maori seats. The right-left margin increased by 10.7% in Christchurch and shrank by 6.5% in Auckland.
- 9 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL 2011 PARTY VOTE
1
Tamaki 24,338
2
Rodney 23,967
3
Epsom 23,725
4
Helensville 23,558
5
North Shore 23,113
6
Selwyn 23,086
7
Hunua 22,161
8
Waitaki 21,309
9
East Coast Bays 21,079
10
Bay of Plenty 20,853
11
Waimakariri 20,489
12
Pakuranga 20,471
13
Clutha Southland 20,020
14
Ilam 19,934
15
Tauranga 19,858
16
Rangitata 19,282
17
Taupo 19,003
18
Kaikoura 18,909
19
Waikato 18,875
20
Ohariu 18,764
21
Taranaki-King Country 18,759
22
New Plymouth 18,073
23
Wairarapa 18,046
24
Coromandel 18,021
25
Tukituki 17,935
26
Botany 17,749
27
Otaki 17,609
28
Whangarei 17,486
29
Northcote 17,263
30
Rangitikei 17,115
31
Hamilton East 17,085
32
Papakura 16,640
33
Napier 16,538
34
Northland 16,381
35
Rotorua 16,159
36
Invercargill 16,140
37
Nelson 16,016
38
West Coast Tasman 15,462
39
Rimutaka 15,364
40
Hamilton West 15,300
41
Whanganui 15,151
42
Wellington Central 15,128
43
East Coast 14,804
44
Maungakiekie 14,747
45
Palmerston North 14,577
46
Port Hills 14,532
47
Auckland Central 14,447
48
Wigram 14,357
49
Dunedin South 14,163
50
Mana 13,754
51
Hutt South 13,510
52
Christchurch East 13,252
53
New Lynn 13,211
54
Mt Roskill 12,781
55
Te Atatu 12,701
56
Waitakere 12,534
57
Christchurch Central 12,507
58
Rongotai 12,168
59
Mt Albert 12,102
60
Dunedin North 9,707
61
Manurewa 6,606
62
Manukau East 5,287
63
Mangere 3,592
64
Te Tai Tonga 2,631
65
Te Tai Tokerau 1,814
66
Tamaki Makaurau 1,569
67
Hauraki-Waikato 1,491
68
Te Tai Hauauru 1,421
69
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 1,091
70
Waiariki 1,068 Tamaki had the highest absolute party vote for National at 24,338 with Rodney second on 23,967. In total 13 electorates got a party vote over 20,000 – the same as 2008. 42 seats got a party vote over 15,000 and 59 seats had a party vote over 10,000. The median electorate was Rotorua on 16,159 votes and the worst electorates after the Maori seats were Mangere and Manukau East. The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage National got is seen as a more useful comparison. West Coast-Tasman in 38
th place had the highest party vote of the seats we contested (excluding Epsom
and Ohariu) but did not win. Conversely Auckland Central in 47th place had the lowest party vote of the
seats National did win.
- 10 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Helensville 65.8%
2
Epsom 64.5%
3
Tamaki 64.4%
4
Clutha Southland 62.9%
5
East Coast Bays 62.9%
6
Pakuranga 62.8%
7
Selwyn 62.6%
8
Hunua 62.6%
9
North Shore 62.2%
10
Rodney 62.2%
11
Botany 61.1%
12
Taranaki-King Country 60.4%
13
Waikato 60.0%
14
Ilam 58.3%
15
Bay of Plenty 57.6%
16
Waimakariri 56.9%
17
Taupo 56.3%
18
Kaikoura 55.4%
19
Waitaki 55.3%
20
Tauranga 54.2%
21
Rangitikei 53.9%
22
Rangitata 53.7%
23
New Plymouth 53.3%
24
Papakura 52.6%
25
Tukituki 52.6%
26
Northcote 52.3%
27
Coromandel 52.1%
28
Wairarapa 51.5%
29
Hamilton East 51.4%
30
Rotorua 51.3%
31
Whangarei 50.7%
32
Northland 50.1%
33
Invercargill 49.9%
34
East Coast 49.8%
35
Ohariu 49.6%
36
Napier 48.8%
37
Hamilton West 47.7%
38
Whanganui 47.6%
39
Otaki 46.8%
40
Christchurch East 46.1%
41
West Coast Tasman 45.8%
42
Nelson 45.4%
43
Rimutaka 44.7%
44
Christchurch Central 44.6%
45
Wigram 44.5%
46
Palmerston North 44.1%
47
Port Hills 43.7%
48
Maungakiekie 43.6%
49
Auckland Central 42.2%
50
Te Atatu 41.2%
51
Hutt South 41.0%
52
Waitakere 40.3%
53
Dunedin South 40.2%
54
Mana 40.0%
55
Mt Roskill 39.5%
56
New Lynn 39.2%
57
Wellington Central 38.4%
58
Mt Albert 36.7%
59
Rongotai 33.0%
60
Dunedin North 32.4%
61
Manurewa 26.1%
62
Manukau East 19.6%
63
Te Tai Tonga 14.9%
64
Mangere 14.4%
65
Te Tai Tokerau 9.2%
66
Tamaki Makaurau 8.4%
67
Hauraki-Waikato 8.3%
68
Te Tai Hauauru 7.8%
69
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 6.0%
70
Waiariki 5.7%
On a percentage basis Helensville had the best party vote for National at 65.8% followed by Epsom and Tamaki. 13 electorates (up from six in 2008) got over 60% party vote, and 32 electorates got over 50% party vote. 51 electorates got over 40% party vote. Christchurch East in 40
th place was the highest polling seat of those National did not win but contested.
Auckland Central in 49th place had the lowest party vote percentage of the seats National did win.
The median electorate is Ohariu on 49.6%. Apart from the Maori seats Mangere, Manukau East and Manurewa were worse for National on 14.4%, 19.6% and 26.1%.
- 11 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE
1
Helensville 26,011
2
Selwyn 24,963
3
Tamaki 24,837
4
Bay of Plenty 23,710
5
Waitaki 23,219
6
North Shore 22,709
7
Hunua 22,563
8
Tauranga 21,971
9
Clutha Southland 21,375
10
East Coast Bays 21,094
11
Taupo 20,934
12
Taranaki-King Country 20,842
13
Pakuranga 20,694
14
Rodney 20,253
15
Ilam 20,070
16
Whangarei 20,049
17
Kaikoura 19,961
18
Waikato 19,817
19
Rangitata 19,580
20
Tukituki 19,378
21
Otaki 19,151
22
Northcote 18,908
23
Coromandel 18,571
24
Hamilton East 18,505
25
Nelson 18,360
26
Rangitikei 18,284
27
Northland 18,188
28
Papakura 18,096
29
Wairarapa 17,881
30
Botany 17,780
31
New Plymouth 17,644
32
Napier 17,337
33
Invercargill 17,275
34
Rotorua 17,188
35
Waimakariri 16,787
36
Whanganui 16,743
37
Hamilton West 16,587
38
Maungakiekie 16,189
39
Auckland Central 15,038
40
Mana 14,093
41
East Coast 14,003
42
Rimutaka 13,885
43
Epsom 13,574
44
Waitakere 13,457
45
Palmerston North 13,240
46
West Coast Tasman 13,214
47
Dunedin South 12,669
48
Port Hills 12,640
49
Wigram 12,580
50
Wellington Central 12,460
51
Christchurch Central 12,064
52
New Lynn 11,809
53
Hutt South 11,003
54
Mt Roskill 10,635
55
Te Atatu 10,444
56
Christchurch East 10,225
57
Dunedin North 9,487
58
Rongotai 9,132
59
Mt Albert 8,695
60
Ohariu 6,907
61
Manurewa 6,351
62
Manukau East 3,561
63
Mangere 3,018
No surprise that Helensville had the highest electorate vote for National at 26,011 with Selwyn and Tamaki following. 16 (was 25 in 2008) National MPs managed attracted over 20,000 votes. The median electorate was Napier on 17,337 votes and the worst electorates (Maori seats were not contested) were Mangere and Manukau East. The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage National got is seen as a more useful comparison. Mana in 40
th place had the highest electorate vote of the seats National contested but did not win.
Conversely East Coast in 41st place had the lowest electorate vote of the seats National did win.
- 12 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Helensville 74.4%
2
Taranaki-King Country 69.6%
3
Selwyn 69.1%
4
Clutha Southland 68.8%
5
Tamaki 67.7%
6
Bay of Plenty 67.5%
7
Pakuranga 65.9%
8
Hunua 65.6%
9
East Coast Bays 65.0%
10
Waikato 64.9%
11
Botany 64.0%
12
Taupo 63.7%
13
North Shore 62.4%
14
Waitaki 61.4%
15
Tauranga 61.4%
16
Ilam 60.4%
17
Kaikoura 60.2%
18
Papakura 59.6%
19
Whangarei 59.2%
20
Rangitikei 58.9%
21
Northcote 58.5%
22
Tukituki 58.4%
23
Northland 57.5%
24
Hamilton East 57.1%
25
Rotorua 56.2%
26
Rangitata 55.8%
27
Coromandel 55.0%
28
Invercargill 54.6%
29
Whanganui 53.7%
30
Rodney 53.5%
31
New Plymouth 53.3%
32
Hamilton West 53.3%
33
Nelson 53.1%
34
Wairarapa 52.6%
35
Napier 52.1%
36
Otaki 51.6%
37
Maungakiekie 49.9%
38
East Coast 48.3%
39
Waimakariri 47.3%
40
Auckland Central 45.4%
41
Waitakere 44.7%
42
Christchurch Central 44.5%
43
Mana 42.0%
44
Rimutaka 41.7%
45
Palmerston North 41.1%
46
Wigram 40.3%
47
West Coast Tasman 39.9%
48
Port Hills 38.9%
49
Epsom 37.8%
50
Dunedin South 36.8%
51
Christchurch East 36.5%
52
New Lynn 36.2%
53
Te Atatu 35.4%
54
Hutt South 34.3%
55
Mt Roskill 33.9%
56
Wellington Central 32.5%
57
Dunedin North 32.4%
58
Mt Albert 27.5%
59
Manurewa 26.9%
60
Rongotai 25.4%
61
Ohariu 18.6%
62
Manukau East 14.2%
63
Mangere 12.6%
Helensville is the only National seat with over 70% of the vote – 74.4%. Following that are Taranaki-King Country and Selwyn. 17 seats (up two) had electorate votes of over 60% and 36 seats had an absolute majority of over 50%. Waitakere on 44.7% in 41
st place had the highest electorate vote percentage of any seat which National did not win.
Auckland Central in 40th place had the lowest percentage on 45.4% of a seat National did win.
National’s electorate vote percentage was lowest in Mangere, Manukau East, Ohariu and Rongotai.
- 13 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Christchurch East 10.4% 46.1% 35.7%
2
Selwyn 7.7% 62.6% 54.9%
3
Waimakariri 7.5% 56.9% 49.4%
4
Christchurch Central 7.0% 44.6% 37.6%
5
Wigram 6.6% 44.5% 37.9%
6
Port Hills 6.0% 43.7% 37.7%
7
Dunedin South 6.0% 40.2% 34.2%
8
Ilam 5.5% 58.3% 52.8%
9
Rangitata 5.1% 53.7% 48.6%
10
Tamaki 4.2% 64.4% 60.2%
11
North Shore 4.1% 62.2% 58.1%
12
Rimutaka 4.1% 44.7% 40.7%
13
Waitaki 3.9% 55.3% 51.4%
14
Te Tai Tonga 3.8% 14.9% 11.1%
15
Kaikoura 3.6% 55.4% 51.8%
16
Palmerston North 3.5% 44.1% 40.7%
17
Ohariu 3.3% 49.6% 46.3%
18
Mana 3.3% 40.0% 36.7%
19
Hutt South 3.2% 41.0% 37.8%
20
Rodney 3.2% 62.2% 59.0%
21
Pakuranga 3.1% 62.8% 59.7%
22
Dunedin North 3.0% 32.4% 29.4%
23
Clutha Southland 3.0% 62.9% 59.9%
24
Wellington Central 3.0% 38.4% 35.4%
25
Nelson 3.0% 45.4% 42.5%
26
Wairarapa 2.9% 51.5% 48.7%
27
New Plymouth 2.8% 53.3% 50.5%
28
Taupo 2.7% 56.3% 53.6%
29
Waikato 2.5% 60.0% 57.4%
30
Tukituki 2.4% 52.6% 50.2%
31
Invercargill 2.3% 49.9% 47.5%
32
Auckland Central 2.2% 42.2% 40.1%
33
East Coast 2.1% 49.8% 47.6%
34
Helensville 2.1% 65.8% 63.7%
35
Otaki 2.0% 46.8% 44.8%
36
Hunua 1.9% 62.6% 60.6%
37
Epsom 1.9% 64.5% 62.6%
38
Hamilton East 1.9% 51.4% 49.5%
39
Northcote 1.9% 52.3% 50.4%
40
Hamilton West 1.8% 47.7% 46.0%
41
West Coast Tasman 1.7% 45.8% 44.1%
42
Rongotai 1.6% 33.0% 31.4%
43
Napier 1.5% 48.8% 47.3%
44
Rangitikei 1.5% 53.9% 52.4%
45
East Coast Bays 1.5% 62.9% 61.4%
46
Whanganui 1.3% 47.6% 46.3%
47
Te Tai Hauauru 1.2% 7.8% 6.6%
48
Papakura 1.1% 52.6% 51.5%
49
Hauraki-Waikato 1.1% 8.3% 7.2%
50
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 1.1% 6.0% 4.9%
51
Maungakiekie 1.1% 43.6% 42.5%
52
Mt Albert 1.0% 36.7% 35.7%
53
Tamaki Makaurau 1.0% 8.4% 7.4%
54
Rotorua 0.9% 51.3% 50.3%
55
Taranaki-King Country 0.9% 60.4% 59.5%
56
Whangarei 0.6% 50.7% 50.0%
57
Coromandel 0.5% 52.1% 51.7%
58
Waiariki 0.2% 5.7% 5.5%
59
Tauranga -0.1% 54.2% 54.3%
60
Botany -0.1% 61.1% 61.2%
61
Te Tai Tokerau -0.2% 9.2% 9.3%
62
Te Atatu -0.3% 41.2% 41.5%
63
New Lynn -0.9% 39.2% 40.1%
64
Waitakere -0.9% 40.3% 41.2%
65
Bay of Plenty -1.1% 57.6% 58.7%
66
Northland -1.6% 50.1% 51.7%
67
Mangere -2.1% 14.4% 16.4%
68
Mt Roskill -2.6% 39.5% 42.1%
69
Manurewa -4.2% 26.1% 30.3%
70
Manukau East -4.6% 19.6% 24.2%
58 of 70 electorate increased the party vote. Chch East had the largest increase at 10.4%, followed by Selwyn at 7.7%, Waimakariri at 7,5% and Chch Central on 7.0%. The seat with the largest decreases for National were Manukau East, Manurewa and Mt Roskill. Nine seats had an increase of 5% or more, and 35 seats an increase of 2% or more. The median electorate was Otaki with an 2.0% increase.
- 14 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Te Tai Tonga 33.9% 14.9% 11.1%
2
Christchurch East 29.1% 46.1% 35.7%
3
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 23.0% 6.0% 4.9%
4
Te Tai Hauauru 18.9% 7.8% 6.6%
5
Christchurch Central 18.8% 44.6% 37.6%
6
Wigram 17.5% 44.5% 37.9%
7
Dunedin South 17.5% 40.2% 34.2%
8
Port Hills 15.9% 43.7% 37.7%
9
Hauraki-Waikato 15.6% 8.3% 7.2%
10
Waimakariri 15.1% 56.9% 49.4%
11
Selwyn 14.1% 62.6% 54.9%
12
Tamaki Makaurau 13.4% 8.4% 7.4%
13
Rangitata 10.5% 53.7% 48.6%
14
Ilam 10.4% 58.3% 52.8%
15
Dunedin North 10.4% 32.4% 29.4%
16
Rimutaka 10.1% 44.7% 40.7%
17
Mana 9.0% 40.0% 36.7%
18
Wellington Central 8.5% 38.4% 35.4%
19
Palmerston North 8.5% 44.1% 40.7%
20
Hutt South 8.5% 41.0% 37.8%
21
Waitaki 7.6% 55.3% 51.4%
22
Ohariu 7.2% 49.6% 46.3%
23
North Shore 7.1% 62.2% 58.1%
24
Tamaki 7.0% 64.4% 60.2%
25
Nelson 7.0% 45.4% 42.5%
26
Kaikoura 6.9% 55.4% 51.8%
27
Wairarapa 5.9% 51.5% 48.7%
28
New Plymouth 5.5% 53.3% 50.5%
29
Auckland Central 5.4% 42.2% 40.1%
30
Rodney 5.4% 62.2% 59.0%
31
Pakuranga 5.2% 62.8% 59.7%
32
Rongotai 5.2% 33.0% 31.4%
33
Taupo 5.1% 56.3% 53.6%
34
Clutha 5.1% 62.9% 59.9%
Southland
35
Invercargill 4.9% 49.9% 47.5%
36
Tukituki 4.7% 52.6% 50.2%
37
East Coast 4.5% 49.8% 47.6%
38
Otaki 4.5% 46.8% 44.8%
39
Waikato 4.4% 60.0% 57.4%
40
West Coast Tasman 3.9% 45.8% 44.1%
41
Hamilton West 3.8% 47.7% 46.0%
42
Hamilton East 3.8% 51.4% 49.5%
43
Northcote 3.7% 52.3% 50.4%
44
Helensville 3.3% 65.8% 63.7%
45
Waiariki 3.2% 5.7% 5.5%
46
Hunua 3.2% 62.6% 60.6%
47
Napier 3.2% 48.8% 47.3%
48
Epsom 3.1% 64.5% 62.6%
49
Mt Albert 2.8% 36.7% 35.7%
50
Rangitikei 2.8% 53.9% 52.4%
51
Whanganui 2.7% 47.6% 46.3%
52
Maungakiekie 2.6% 43.6% 42.5%
53
East Coast Bays 2.4% 62.9% 61.4%
54
Papakura 2.2% 52.6% 51.5%
55
Rotorua 1.8% 51.3% 50.3%
56
Taranaki-King Country 1.5% 60.4% 59.5%
57
Whangarei 1.3% 50.7% 50.0%
58
Coromandel 0.9% 52.1% 51.7%
59
Tauranga -0.2% 54.2% 54.3%
60
Botany -0.2% 61.1% 61.2%
61
Te Atatu -0.8% 41.2% 41.5%
62
Bay of Plenty -1.8% 57.6% 58.7%
63
Te Tai Tokerau -1.8% 9.2% 9.3%
64
New Lynn -2.2% 39.2% 40.1%
65
Waitakere -2.3% 40.3% 41.2%
66
Northland -3.0% 50.1% 51.7%
67
Mt Roskill -6.1% 39.5% 42.1%
68
Mangere -12.6% 14.4% 16.4%
69
Manurewa -13.8% 26.1% 30.3%
70
Manukau East -18.9% 19.6% 24.2%
The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote. As the Maori seats were on such a small base, they top the table. Next is Christchurch East which saw the party vote increase 29.1% relative to 2008.. The median increase was 4.9% in Invercargill.
- 15 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Epsom 16.0% 37.8% 21.8%
2
Wigram 9.7% 40.3% 30.7%
3
Selwyn 8.7% 69.1% 60.5%
4
Botany 7.8% 64.0% 56.2%
5
Mana 7.0% 42.0% 35.0%
6
East Coast Bays 6.9% 65.0% 58.1%
7
Taupo 5.7% 63.7% 57.9%
8
New Plymouth 5.1% 53.3% 48.2%
9
Rimutaka 4.6% 41.7% 37.1%
10
Tauranga 4.6% 61.4% 56.8%
11
Hamilton West 4.5% 53.3% 48.8%
12
Maungakiekie 4.3% 49.9% 45.5%
13
Pakuranga 4.3% 65.9% 61.6%
14
Waimakariri 4.2% 47.3% 43.0%
15
Christchurch Central 3.6% 44.5% 40.9%
16
Ilam 3.5% 60.4% 56.9%
17
Otaki 2.9% 51.6% 48.7%
18
Bay of Plenty 2.6% 67.5% 64.9%
19
Auckland Central 2.5% 45.4% 42.9%
20
Kaikoura 2.5% 60.2% 57.8%
21
Rotorua 2.3% 56.2% 53.9%
22
Dunedin South 2.0% 36.8% 34.7%
23
Tamaki 1.9% 67.7% 65.7%
24
Port Hills 1.7% 38.9% 37.1%
25
Dunedin North 1.7% 32.4% 30.6%
26
Wairarapa 1.6% 52.6% 51.0%
27
Waikato 1.5% 64.9% 63.4%
28
Waitaki 1.3% 61.4% 60.1%
29
Tukituki 1.2% 58.4% 57.2%
30
Hunua 1.2% 65.6% 64.4%
31
Taranaki-King Country 1.0% 69.6% 68.7%
32
Clutha 1.0% 68.8% 67.9%
Southland
33
Helensville 0.8% 74.4% 73.6%
34
North Shore 0.6% 62.4% 61.8%
35
Northcote 0.6% 58.5% 57.9%
36
Christchurch East 0.6% 36.5% 35.9%
37
Papakura -0.1% 59.6% 59.7%
38
Waitakere -0.2% 44.7% 44.9%
39
Manurewa -0.2% 26.9% 27.1%
40
Te Atatu -0.8% 35.4% 36.2%
41
Mt Albert -1.3% 27.5% 28.8%
42
Mangere -1.3% 12.6% 14.0%
43
Invercargill -1.4% 54.6% 56.0%
44
Hamilton East -1.5% 57.1% 58.6%
45
Northland -1.6% 57.5% 59.1%
46
Rangitata -2.1% 55.8% 57.9%
47
Palmerston North -2.4% 41.1% 43.5%
48
New Lynn -2.4% 36.2% 38.7%
49
Whanganui -2.6% 53.7% 56.3%
50
Mt Roskill -2.6% 33.9% 36.6%
51
Hutt South -2.9% 34.3% 37.2%
52
Rongotai -3.0% 25.4% 28.3%
53
Nelson -4.0% 53.1% 57.1%
54
East Coast -4.2% 48.3% 52.5%
55
Manukau East -4.3% 14.2% 18.4%
56
Wellington Central -5.0% 32.5% 37.5%
57
Whangarei -5.0% 59.2% 64.2%
58
West Coast Tasman -6.7% 39.9% 46.5%
59
Rangitikei -6.8% 58.9% 65.7%
60
Rodney -6.9% 53.5% 60.4%
61
Napier -7.6% 52.1% 59.7%
62
Ohariu -8.0% 18.6% 26.5%
63
Coromandel -8.0% 55.0% 63.0%
Epsom had the largest electorate vote increase at 16.0% followed by Wigram on 9.7% and Selwyn on 8.7%. The biggest increase for a seat National did not win after Wigram was Mana at 7.0% and Rimutaka on 4.6%. National increased the electorate vote % in 36 seats and had it drop in 27 seats. The median electorate was Clutha-Southland with a 1.0% increase. The largest drops were in Coromandel and Ohariu at 8.0% each, then Napier, Rodney and Rangitikei.
- 16 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Epsom 73.1% 37.8% 21.8%
2
Wigram 31.5% 40.3% 30.7%
3
Mana 19.9% 42.0% 35.0%
4
Selwyn 14.3% 69.1% 60.5%
5
Botany 13.9% 64.0% 56.2%
6
Rimutaka 12.4% 41.7% 37.1%
7
East Coast Bays 11.9% 65.0% 58.1%
8
New Plymouth 10.6% 53.3% 48.2%
9
Taupo 9.9% 63.7% 57.9%
10
Waimakariri 9.9% 47.3% 43.0%
11
Maungakiekie 9.5% 49.9% 45.5%
12
Hamilton West 9.2% 53.3% 48.8%
13
Christchurch Central 8.8% 44.5% 40.9%
14
Tauranga 8.1% 61.4% 56.8%
15
Pakuranga 6.9% 65.9% 61.6%
16
Ilam 6.2% 60.4% 56.9%
17
Otaki 6.0% 51.6% 48.7%
18
Dunedin South 5.9% 36.8% 34.7%
19
Auckland Central 5.8% 45.4% 42.9%
20
Dunedin North 5.6% 32.4% 30.6%
21
Port Hills 4.7% 38.9% 37.1%
22
Kaikoura 4.3% 60.2% 57.8%
23
Rotorua 4.2% 56.2% 53.9%
24
Bay of Plenty 4.0% 67.5% 64.9%
25
Wairarapa 3.2% 52.6% 51.0%
26
Tamaki 2.9% 67.7% 65.7%
27
Waikato 2.3% 64.9% 63.4%
28
Waitaki 2.2% 61.4% 60.1%
29
Tukituki 2.2% 58.4% 57.2%
30
Hunua 1.8% 65.6% 64.4%
31
Christchurch East 1.5% 36.5% 35.9%
32
Taranaki-King 1.4% 69.6% 68.7%
Country
33
Clutha Southland 1.4% 68.8% 67.9%
34
Helensville 1.0% 74.4% 73.6%
35
Northcote 1.0% 58.5% 57.9%
36
North Shore 1.0% 62.4% 61.8%
37
Papakura -0.2% 59.6% 59.7%
38
Waitakere -0.4% 44.7% 44.9%
39
Manurewa -0.9% 26.9% 27.1%
40
Te Atatu -2.2% 35.4% 36.2%
41
Invercargill -2.5% 54.6% 56.0%
42
Hamilton East -2.5% 57.1% 58.6%
43
Northland -2.7% 57.5% 59.1%
44
Rangitata -3.6% 55.8% 57.9%
45
Whanganui -4.6% 53.7% 56.3%
46
Mt Albert -4.7% 27.5% 28.8%
47
Palmerston North -5.6% 41.1% 43.5%
48
New Lynn -6.3% 36.2% 38.7%
49
Nelson -7.0% 53.1% 57.1%
50
Mt Roskill -7.2% 33.9% 36.6%
51
Hutt South -7.8% 34.3% 37.2%
52
Whangarei -7.8% 59.2% 64.2%
53
East Coast -8.0% 48.3% 52.5%
54
Mangere -9.7% 12.6% 14.0%
55
Rangitikei -10.4% 58.9% 65.7%
56
Rongotai -10.4% 25.4% 28.3%
57
Rodney -11.4% 53.5% 60.4%
58
Coromandel -12.7% 55.0% 63.0%
59
Napier -12.7% 52.1% 59.7%
60
Wellington Central -13.2% 32.5% 37.5%
61
West Coast Tasman -14.3% 39.9% 46.5%
62
Manukau East -23.1% 14.2% 18.4%
63
Ohariu -30.0% 18.6% 26.5%
The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote. Epsom had the largest relative change with a 73% increase, followed by Wigram, Mana and Selwyn. The median relative increase was TKC with a 1.4% relative increase.
- 17 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE
EV/PV EV PV
1
Bay of Plenty 117.1% 67.5% 57.6%
2
Nelson 117.0% 53.1% 45.4%
3
Whangarei 116.8% 59.2% 50.7%
4
Taranaki-King Country 115.2% 69.6% 60.4%
5
Northland 114.8% 57.5% 50.1%
6
Maungakiekie 114.4% 49.9% 43.6%
7
Papakura 113.2% 59.6% 52.6%
8
Tauranga 113.2% 61.4% 54.2%
9
Helensville 113.1% 74.4% 65.8%
10
Taupo 113.0% 63.7% 56.3%
11
Whanganui 112.9% 53.7% 47.6%
12
Northcote 111.9% 58.5% 52.3%
13
Hamilton West 111.6% 53.3% 47.7%
14
Hamilton East 111.1% 57.1% 51.4%
15
Waitaki 111.1% 61.4% 55.3%
16
Tukituki 111.1% 58.4% 52.6%
17
Waitakere 111.1% 44.7% 40.3%
18
Selwyn 110.4% 69.1% 62.6%
19
Otaki 110.2% 51.6% 46.8%
20
Rotorua 109.6% 56.2% 51.3%
21
Clutha Southland 109.4% 68.8% 62.9%
22
Invercargill 109.4% 54.6% 49.9%
23
Rangitikei 109.1% 58.9% 53.9%
24
Kaikoura 108.7% 60.2% 55.4%
25
Waikato 108.2% 64.9% 60.0%
26
Auckland Central 107.5% 45.4% 42.2%
27
Napier 106.8% 52.1% 48.8%
28
Coromandel 105.6% 55.0% 52.1%
29
Tamaki 105.1% 67.7% 64.4%
30
Mana 105.0% 42.0% 40.0%
31
Pakuranga 104.9% 65.9% 62.8%
32
Hunua 104.8% 65.6% 62.6%
33
Botany 104.7% 64.0% 61.1%
34
Rangitata 103.9% 55.8% 53.7%
35
Ilam 103.5% 60.4% 58.3%
36
East Coast Bays 103.4% 65.0% 62.9%
37
Manurewa 102.8% 26.9% 26.1%
38
Wairarapa 102.2% 52.6% 51.5%
39
North Shore 100.4% 62.4% 62.2%
40
New Plymouth 100.1% 53.3% 53.3%
41
Dunedin North 99.9% 32.4% 32.4%
42
Christchurch Central 99.8% 44.5% 44.6%
43
East Coast 97.0% 48.3% 49.8%
44
Rimutaka 93.2% 41.7% 44.7%
45
Palmerston North 93.2% 41.1% 44.1%
46
New Lynn 92.4% 36.2% 39.2%
47
Dunedin South 91.5% 36.8% 40.2%
48
Wigram 90.5% 40.3% 44.5%
49
Port Hills 89.1% 38.9% 43.7%
50
Mangere 87.7% 12.6% 14.4%
51
West Coast Tasman 87.0% 39.9% 45.8%
52
Rodney 86.1% 53.5% 62.2%
53
Te Atatu 86.1% 35.4% 41.2%
54
Mt Roskill 85.9% 33.9% 39.5%
55
Wellington Central 84.6% 32.5% 38.4%
56
Hutt South 83.6% 34.3% 41.0%
57
Waimakariri 83.1% 47.3% 56.9%
58
Christchurch East 79.2% 36.5% 46.1%
59
Rongotai 76.9% 25.4% 33.0%
60
Mt Albert 75.0% 27.5% 36.7%
61
Manukau East 72.2% 14.2% 19.6%
62
Epsom 58.6% 37.8% 64.5%
63
Ohariu 37.4% 18.6% 49.6%
This shows how National did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means the electorate vote was exactly equal to the party vote. Bay of Plenty just pipped Nelson as the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at 117%. This was followed by Whangarei and TKC at 117% and 115% respectively. Waitakere was the highest of the general electorate seats National did not win at 111%. The median seat was Hunua at 104.8%. The lowest ratio for a seat National did win was Waimakariri at 83.1%.
- 18 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NATIONAL 2011 ELECTORATE MARGINS
1
Helensville 21,066
2
Selwyn 19,451
3
Tamaki 17,786
4
Bay of Plenty 17,760
5
Tauranga 17,360
6
Hunua 16,797
7
Clutha Southland 16,168
8
North Shore 15,228
9
Taranaki-King Country 15,089
10
Rodney 15,083
11
East Coast Bays 14,641
12
Waikato 14,198
13
Waitaki 14,143
14
Taupo 14,115
15
Pakuranga 13,846
16
Ilam 13,312
17
Coromandel 12,740
18
Whangarei 12,447
19
Kaikoura 11,445
20
Northland 11,362
21
Botany 10,741
22
Papakura 9,890
23
Tukituki 9,660
24
Rangitikei 9,382
25
Northcote 9,379
26
Hamilton East 8,275
27
Rotorua 7,357
28
Wairarapa 7,135
29
Nelson 7,088
30
Rangitata 6,537
31
Invercargill 6,263
32
Otaki 5,231
33
Whanganui 5,046
34
East Coast 4,774
35
Hamilton West 4,418
36
New Plymouth 4,270
37
Napier 3,701
38
Maungakiekie 3,021
39
Auckland Central 717
40
Waimakariri 642
41
Christchurch Central 45
42
Waitakere - 11
43
Wigram - 1,500
44
Mana - 2,230
45
Epsom - 2,261
46
West Coast Tasman - 2,539
47
Port Hills - 3,097
48
Palmerston North - 3,285
49
Rimutaka - 3,286
50
Dunedin North - 3,489
51
Dunedin South - 4,175
52
Hutt South - 4,825
53
New Lynn - 5,190
54
Christchurch East - 5,334
55
Te Atatu - 5,416
56
Wellington Central - 6,376
57
Mt Roskill - 7,271
58
Ohariu - 7,450
59
Manurewa - 8,610
60
Rongotai - 9,047
61
Mt Albert - 10,021
62
Mangere - 15,159
63
Manukau East - 15,838
Please note this is the margin between the National Candidate and either the 2
nd place getter or the person
who won the seat. In some seats National came third or lower so the margin shown here is not necessarily the margin the seat was won by – that is on another table. John Key in Helensville has the largest majority at 21,066. In total National won 41 seats and have margins of over 10,000 in 21 of them and over 5,000 in a further 12. National’s most marginal seat is Christchurch Central on 45 votes, followed by Waimakariri and Auckland Central. There are no National held seats with a majority of between 1,000 and 3,000. So there are 33 quite safe seats, five reasonably safe seats and three distinctly marginal seats. In three seats the National candidate was more than 10,000 votes behind the winning candidate. In a total of 11 seats the National candidate was more than 5,000 votes behind the winning candidate. There are five seats (Waitakere, Wigram, Mana, Epsom and WCT) National lost by less than 3.000 votes.
- 19 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
2011 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES
Majority Party
1
Helensville 21,066 NAT
2
Selwyn 19,451 NAT
3
Tamaki 17,786 NAT
4
Bay of Plenty 17,760 NAT
5
Tauranga 17,360 NAT
6
Hunua 16,797 NAT
7
Clutha Southland 16,168 NAT
8
Manukau East 15,838 LAB
9
North Shore 15,228 NAT
10
Taranaki-King Country 15,089 NAT
11
Rodney 15,083 NAT
12
East Coast Bays 14,641 NAT
13
Waikato 14,198 NAT
14
Waitaki 14,143 NAT
15
Taupo 14,115 NAT
16
Pakuranga 13,846 NAT
17
Ilam 13,312 NAT
18
Coromandel 12,740 NAT
19
Whangarei 12,447 NAT
20
Kaikoura 11,445 NAT
21
Northland 11,362 NAT
22
Botany 10,741 NAT
23
Mt Albert 10,021 LAB
24
Papakura 9,890 NAT
25
Tukituki 9,660 NAT
26
Rangitikei 9,382 NAT
27
Northcote 9,379 NAT
28
Rongotai 9,047 LAB
29
Manurewa 8,610 LAB
30
Hamilton East 8,275 NAT
31
Rotorua 7,357 NAT
32
Mt Roskill 7,271 LAB
33
Wairarapa 7,135 NAT
34
Mangere 7,126 LAB
35
Nelson 7,088 NAT
36
Hauraki-Waikato 6,852 LAB
37
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 6,541 LAB
38
Rangitata 6,537 NAT
39
Wellington Central 6,376 LAB
40
Invercargill 6,263 NAT
41
Te Atatu 5,416 LAB
42
Christchurch East 5,334 LAB
43
Otaki 5,231 NAT
44
New Lynn 5,190 LAB
45
Whanganui 5,046 NAT
46
Hutt South 4,825 LAB
47
East Coast 4,774 NAT
48
Hamilton West 4,418 NAT
49
New Plymouth 4,270 NAT
50
Dunedin South 4,175 LAB
51
Napier 3,701 NAT
52
Dunedin North 3,489 LAB
53
Waiariki 3,296 MAO
54
Rimutaka 3,286 LAB
55
Palmerston North 3,285 LAB
56
Te Tai Hauauru 3,221 MAO
57
Port Hills 3,097 LAB
58
Maungakiekie 3,021 NAT
59
West Coast Tasman 2,539 LAB
60
Epsom 2,261 ACT
61
Mana 2,230 LAB
62
Wigram 1,500 LAB
63
Te Tai Tonga 1,475 LAB
64
Ohariu 1,392 UFNZ
65
Te Tai Tokerau 1,165 MANA
66
Tamaki Makaurau 936 MAO
67
Auckland Central 717 NAT
68
Waimakariri 642 NAT
69
Christchurch Central 45 NAT
70
Waitakere 11 LAB
National has the top seven majorities. Ross Robertson for Labour in Manukau East is the 8
th,
There are 23 majorities over 10,000 – 21 National, and two Labour. Of the nine majorities below 2,000 three are National held, three are Labour held, one is Maori Party held one is Mana held, and one is United held. The median majority is Nelson on 7,088.
- 20 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
LABOUR 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Mangere 71.8%
2
Manukau East 66.7%
3
Manurewa 57.4%
4
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 49.6%
5
Hauraki-Waikato 46.1%
6
Mt Roskill 43.6%
7
Te Tai Hauauru 42.0%
8
Tamaki Makaurau 41.5%
9
Te Atatu 38.9%
10
Te Tai Tonga 38.5%
11
Mana 37.8%
12
Waitakere 37.2%
13
Mt Albert 37.1%
14
New Lynn 37.0%
15
Maungakiekie 36.9%
16
Hutt South 35.7%
17
Waiariki 35.0%
18
Dunedin South 35.0%
19
Te Tai Tokerau 34.7%
20
Rongotai 34.2%
21
Palmerston North 33.9%
22
Dunedin North 33.8%
23
Rimutaka 33.1%
24
Christchurch East 31.7%
25
Wigram 30.6%
26
Otaki 29.6%
27
Christchurch Central 29.4%
28
Napier 29.3%
29
Hamilton West 29.1%
30
Invercargill 28.7%
31
Port Hills 27.6%
32
Whanganui 27.4%
33
Nelson 27.3%
34
West Coast Tasman 27.2%
35
Papakura 27.2%
36
Rangitata 27.0%
37
Wellington Central 26.6%
38
Ohariu 26.5%
39
New Plymouth 25.8%
40
Auckland Central 25.1%
41
Northcote 25.0%
42
Hamilton East 24.7%
43
Botany 24.5%
44
Tukituki 24.1%
45
East Coast 23.9%
46
Waimakariri 23.4%
47
Wairarapa 23.3%
48
Rotorua 22.0%
49
Waitaki 21.4%
50
Rangitikei 21.2%
51
Whangarei 20.3%
52
Taupo 20.3%
53
Kaikoura 19.9%
54
Ilam 19.2%
55
Pakuranga 18.6%
56
Coromandel 18.1%
57
Northland 17.6%
58
Tamaki 17.6%
59
East Coast Bays 17.2%
60
Waikato 16.4%
61
North Shore 16.2%
62
Clutha Southland 16.2%
63
Selwyn 16.1%
64
Hunua 16.1%
65
Taranaki-King Country 15.9%
66
Epsom 15.5%
67
Tauranga 15.0%
68
Helensville 14.3%
69
Bay of Plenty 13.7%
70
Rodney 13.4%
Mangere had the best party vote for Labour at 71.8% followed by Manukau East. Labour got over 50% party vote in just three seats, and over 40% in just 8 seats. In 25 seats they got over 30%, and in 29 seats under 25%. Their median seat was Papakura at 27.2%. The seat they did best in that National won was Maungakiekie at 36.9%. Wellington Central had the lowest party vote of any seat they won. It was 37
th with 26.6%, followed by WCT
and Port Hills.
- 21 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Manukau East 77.1%
2
Mangere 75.9%
3
Manurewa 63.3%
4
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 60.7%
5
Mt Albert 59.2%
6
Hauraki-Waikato 58.4%
7
Mt Roskill 57.1%
8
Christchurch East 55.5%
9
Te Atatu 53.8%
10
New Lynn 52.1%
11
Rimutaka 51.6%
12
Palmerston North 51.3%
13
Rongotai 50.5%
14
Hutt South 49.4%
15
Wellington Central 49.1%
16
Dunedin South 48.9%
17
Mana 48.6%
18
Port Hills 48.4%
19
West Coast Tasman 47.5%
20
Waimakariri 45.5%
21
Wigram 45.1%
22
Waitakere 44.8%
23
Christchurch Central 44.4%
24
Dunedin North 44.3%
25
Auckland Central 43.2%
26
Napier 41.0%
27
Te Tai Tonga 40.6%
28
Maungakiekie 40.6%
29
New Plymouth 40.4%
30
Hamilton West 39.1%
31
Whanganui 37.5%
32
Otaki 37.5%
33
Rangitata 37.1%
34
Te Tai Tokerau 37.1%
35
Tamaki Makaurau 35.1%
36
Ohariu 34.8%
37
Invercargill 34.8%
38
Nelson 32.6%
39
Rotorua 32.1%
40
East Coast 31.8%
41
Wairarapa 31.6%
42
Hamilton East 31.6%
43
Te Tai Hauauru 29.8%
44
Northcote 29.5%
45
Tukituki 29.3%
46
Rangitikei 28.7%
47
Papakura 27.0%
48
Kaikoura 25.7%
49
Botany 25.3%
50
Waiariki 24.5%
51
Waitaki 24.0%
52
Whangarei 22.4%
53
Pakuranga 21.8%
54
Northland 21.6%
55
Taupo 20.7%
56
North Shore 20.6%
57
Ilam 20.3%
58
East Coast Bays 19.9%
59
Taranaki-King Country 19.2%
60
Tamaki 19.2%
61
Waikato 18.4%
62
Coromandel 17.3%
63
Bay of Plenty 16.9%
64
Clutha Southland 16.8%
65
Hunua 16.8%
66
Selwyn 15.3%
67
Helensville 14.1%
68
Rodney 13.7%
69
Tauranga 13.2%
70
Epsom 10.4% Manukau East had the highest electorate vote for Labour at 77.1% followed by Mangere at 75.9%. Labour received over 50% of the EV in 13 seats. Their median seat was Tamaki Makaurau at 35.1%. Their lowest percentage for a seat which they won was Te Tai Tonga at 40.6%% and then Dunedin North at 44.3%. Conversely their best result in a seat they did not win was Waimakariri at 45.5%. Their worst seat was Epsom at 10.4% and then Tauranga with the candidate getting under 13.2%. In 21 seats their candidate got under 25%.
- 22 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE
EV/PV EV PV
1
Waimakariri 194.3% 45.5% 23.4%
2
Wellington Central 185.0% 49.1% 26.6%
3
Christchurch East 175.5% 55.5% 31.7%
4
Port Hills 175.2% 48.4% 27.6%
5
West Coast Tasman 174.4% 47.5% 27.2%
6
Auckland Central 172.1% 43.2% 25.1%
7
Mt Albert 159.6% 59.2% 37.1%
8
New Plymouth 156.5% 40.4% 25.8%
9
Rimutaka 155.7% 51.6% 33.1%
10
Palmerston North 151.5% 51.3% 33.9%
11
Christchurch Central 150.8% 44.4% 29.4%
12
Rongotai 147.8% 50.5% 34.2%
13
Wigram 147.4% 45.1% 30.6%
14
Rotorua 146.4% 32.1% 22.0%
15
New Lynn 140.9% 52.1% 37.0%
16
Napier 140.1% 41.0% 29.3%
17
Dunedin South 139.8% 48.9% 35.0%
18
Te Atatu 138.3% 53.8% 38.9%
19
Hutt South 138.3% 49.4% 35.7%
20
Rangitata 137.8% 37.1% 27.0%
21
Whanganui 136.8% 37.5% 27.4%
22
Wairarapa 135.8% 31.6% 23.3%
23
Rangitikei 135.3% 28.7% 21.2%
24
Hamilton West 134.1% 39.1% 29.1%
25
East Coast 133.3% 31.8% 23.9%
26
Ohariu 131.3% 34.8% 26.5%
27
Mt Roskill 131.1% 57.1% 43.6%
28
Dunedin North 130.9% 44.3% 33.8%
29
Kaikoura 129.5% 25.7% 19.9%
30
Mana 128.7% 48.6% 37.8%
31
Hamilton East 127.8% 31.6% 24.7%
32
North Shore 126.7% 20.6% 16.2%
33
Otaki 126.7% 37.5% 29.6%
34
Hauraki-Waikato 126.6% 58.4% 46.1%
35
Bay of Plenty 123.4% 16.9% 13.7%
36
Northland 122.7% 21.6% 17.6%
37
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 122.5% 60.7% 49.6%
38
Tukituki 121.4% 29.3% 24.1%
39
Invercargill 121.1% 34.8% 28.7%
40
Taranaki-King Country 120.5% 19.2% 15.9%
41
Waitakere 120.3% 44.8% 37.2%
42
Nelson 119.4% 32.6% 27.3%
43
Northcote 117.8% 29.5% 25.0%
44
Pakuranga 117.1% 21.8% 18.6%
45
Manukau East 115.6% 77.1% 66.7%
46
East Coast Bays 115.6% 19.9% 17.2%
47
Waitaki 112.1% 24.0% 21.4%
48
Waikato 111.9% 18.4% 16.4%
49
Whangarei 110.4% 22.4% 20.3%
50
Manurewa 110.2% 63.3% 57.4%
51
Maungakiekie 110.1% 40.6% 36.9%
52
Tamaki 109.3% 19.2% 17.6%
53
Te Tai Tokerau 107.1% 37.1% 34.7%
54
Ilam 106.1% 20.3% 19.2%
55
Mangere 105.7% 75.9% 71.8%
56
Te Tai Tonga 105.4% 40.6% 38.5%
57
Hunua 104.0% 16.8% 16.1%
58
Botany 103.5% 25.3% 24.5%
59
Clutha Southland 103.4% 16.8% 16.2%
60
Taupo 102.2% 20.7% 20.3%
61
Rodney 101.8% 13.7% 13.4%
62
Papakura 99.3% 27.0% 27.2%
63
Helensville 98.5% 14.1% 14.3%
64
Coromandel 95.8% 17.3% 18.1%
65
Selwyn 94.7% 15.3% 16.1%
66
Tauranga 87.6% 13.2% 15.0%
67
Tamaki Makaurau 84.6% 35.1% 41.5%
68
Te Tai Hauauru 71.0% 29.8% 42.0%
69
Waiariki 69.9% 24.5% 35.0%
70
Epsom 67.2% 10.4% 15.5%
This shows how Labour did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means the electorate vote was exactly equal to the party vote. Waimakariri is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at 194%. This was followed by Wellington Central and Christchurch East at 185% and 176% respectively. The median seat was Bay of Plenty at 123.4%. The lowest ratio was in Epsom at 67% and Waiariki at 70%.
- 23 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
LABOUR 2011 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE
EV/PV EV PV
1
Waimakariri 142.7% 45.5% 31.9%
2
Christchurch East 128.2% 55.5% 43.3%
3
Rimutaka 119.7% 51.6% 43.1%
4
Te Atatu 116.6% 53.8% 46.1%
5
Palmerston North 115.6% 51.3% 44.4%
6
West Coast Tasman 114.7% 47.5% 41.4%
7
New Plymouth 113.9% 40.4% 35.5%
8
Mt Roskill 112.3% 57.1% 50.9%
9
Manukau East 110.1% 77.1% 70.1%
10
Mt Albert 109.1% 59.2% 54.2%
11
Rangitata 106.1% 37.1% 35.0%
12
New Lynn 106.1% 52.1% 49.1%
13
Hauraki-Waikato 105.7% 58.4% 55.2%
14
Rotorua 105.3% 32.1% 30.5%
15
Napier 104.9% 41.0% 39.1%
16
Hutt South 103.6% 49.4% 47.7%
17
Whanganui 103.1% 37.5% 36.4%
18
Manurewa 103.1% 63.3% 61.4%
19
Wigram 103.1% 45.1% 43.8%
20
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 103.0% 60.7% 58.9%
21
Hamilton West 102.8% 39.1% 38.0%
22
Port Hills 102.5% 48.4% 47.2%
23
Dunedin South 100.6% 48.9% 48.6%
24
Mangere 100.3% 75.9% 75.7%
25
Christchurch Central 97.1% 44.4% 45.7%
26
Mana 96.2% 48.6% 50.5%
27
Otaki 95.6% 37.5% 39.2%
28
Wairarapa 95.5% 31.6% 33.1%
29
Invercargill 93.7% 34.8% 37.1%
30
Waitakere 93.6% 44.8% 47.8%
31
Rangitikei 93.6% 28.7% 30.6%
32
East Coast 92.3% 31.8% 34.5%
33
Wellington Central 90.6% 49.1% 54.3%
34
Auckland Central 90.2% 43.2% 47.9%
35
Pakuranga 87.8% 21.8% 24.8%
36
Botany 87.7% 25.3% 28.9%
37
Maungakiekie 87.5% 40.6% 46.4%
38
Tukituki 86.7% 29.3% 33.8%
39
Rongotai 86.6% 50.5% 58.4%
40
Hamilton East 86.3% 31.6% 36.6%
41
Te Tai Tokerau 85.7% 37.1% 43.3%
42
Ohariu 85.1% 34.8% 40.9%
43
Kaikoura 83.1% 25.7% 30.9%
44
Papakura 82.7% 27.0% 32.7%
45
Northcote 81.9% 29.5% 36.0%
46
Taranaki-King Country 79.5% 19.2% 24.2%
47
East Coast Bays 78.7% 19.9% 25.3%
48
Waikato 78.5% 18.4% 23.5%
49
Dunedin North 77.4% 44.3% 57.2%
50
North Shore 75.9% 20.6% 27.1%
51
Bay of Plenty 75.6% 16.9% 22.4%
52
Nelson 75.2% 32.6% 43.4%
53
Te Tai Tonga 74.7% 40.6% 54.3%
54
Taupo 74.5% 20.7% 27.8%
55
Northland 73.5% 21.6% 29.4%
56
Tamaki 72.9% 19.2% 26.4%
57
Hunua 72.9% 16.8% 23.0%
58
Whangarei 72.4% 22.4% 31.0%
59
Waitaki 72.1% 24.0% 33.3%
60
Tamaki Makaurau 68.5% 35.1% 51.2%
61
Clutha Southland 67.5% 16.8% 24.9%
62
Rodney 62.4% 13.7% 21.9%
63
Ilam 62.4% 20.3% 32.6%
64
Helensville 61.5% 14.1% 23.0%
65
Coromandel 58.8% 17.3% 29.4%
66
Te Tai Hauauru 56.1% 29.8% 53.2%
67
Waiariki 55.8% 24.5% 43.9%
68
Selwyn 55.4% 15.3% 27.6%
69
Tauranga 55.3% 13.2% 23.8%
70
Epsom 37.9% 10.4% 27.6%
In this table we compare the Labour electorate vote to the combined party vote for Labour and Greens. This removes the impact of Green voters who tactically voted for the Labour candidate to get a better idea of which Labour candidates attracted support beyond the main left party vote. Waimakariri is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the L/G party vote at 143%. This was followed by Christchurch East and Rimutaka at 128% and 120% respectively. In only 24 seats did the Labour candidate get more votes than the combined party vote for Labour and Greens. The median seat was Pakuranga at 88%. The lowest ratio was in Epsom at 38% and Tauranga at 55%.
- 24 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Mangere 10.2% 71.8% 61.6%
2
Manukau East 7.4% 66.7% 59.3%
3
Manurewa 5.2% 57.4% 52.2%
4
Mt Roskill 1.0% 43.6% 42.6%
5
Botany -0.7% 24.5% 25.2%
6
Papakura -2.1% 27.2% 29.3%
7
Waitakere -2.6% 37.2% 39.8%
8
Te Atatu -2.6% 38.9% 41.5%
9
Maungakiekie -2.7% 36.9% 39.5%
10
New Lynn -3.3% 37.0% 40.3%
11
Tamaki -3.6% 17.6% 21.2%
12
Hunua -3.6% 16.1% 19.7%
13
Pakuranga -3.7% 18.6% 22.3%
14
Helensville -4.1% 14.3% 18.5%
15
East Coast Bays -4.4% 17.2% 21.6%
16
Epsom -4.5% 15.5% 20.1%
17
Northcote -4.7% 25.0% 29.7%
18
North Shore -5.2% 16.2% 21.4%
19
Taranaki-King Country -5.2% 15.9% 21.2%
20
Mt Albert -5.5% 37.1% 42.6%
21
New Plymouth -5.6% 25.8% 31.4%
22
Hamilton East -6.1% 24.7% 30.8%
23
Waikato -6.1% 16.4% 22.6%
24
Mana -6.2% 37.8% 43.9%
25
West Coast Tasman -6.2% 27.2% 33.5%
26
Napier -6.3% 29.3% 35.6%
27
Rangitikei -6.3% 21.2% 27.5%
28
Hauraki-Waikato -6.4% 46.1% 52.6%
29
Bay of Plenty -6.5% 13.7% 20.2%
30
Hamilton West -6.5% 29.1% 35.6%
31
Palmerston North -6.8% 33.9% 40.7%
32
Ohariu -6.8% 26.5% 33.3%
33
Hutt South -7.1% 35.7% 42.8%
34
Rodney -7.2% 13.4% 20.6%
35
Otaki -7.4% 29.6% 37.0%
36
Northland -7.4% 17.6% 25.0%
37
Tauranga -7.6% 15.0% 22.6%
38
Ikaroa-Rawhiti -7.6% 49.6% 57.2%
39
Clutha Southland -7.7% 16.2% 23.9%
40
East Coast -7.8% 23.9% 31.7%
41
Rangitata -7.9% 27.0% 34.8%
42
Wairarapa -7.9% 23.3% 31.2%
43
Coromandel -7.9% 18.1% 26.0%
44
Tukituki -8.0% 24.1% 32.1%
45
Wellington Central -8.0% 26.6% 34.6%
46
Rotorua -8.1% 22.0% 30.0%
47
Whanganui -8.1% 27.4% 35.5%
48
Invercargill -8.1% 28.7% 36.9%
49
Rimutaka -8.2% 33.1% 41.3%
50
Tamaki Makaurau -8.2% 41.5% 49.7%
51
Whangarei -8.3% 20.3% 28.6%
52
Ilam -8.3% 19.2% 27.5%
53
Kaikoura -8.3% 19.9% 28.2%
54
Rongotai -8.5% 34.2% 42.7%
55
Te Tai Hauauru -8.6% 42.0% 50.7%
56
Waitaki -8.7% 21.4% 30.1%
57
Taupo -8.9% 20.3% 29.2%
58
Auckland Central -9.4% 25.1% 34.6%
59
Selwyn -9.5% 16.1% 25.6%
60
Port Hills -9.5% 27.6% 37.1%
61
Wigram -9.6% 30.6% 40.2%
62
Christchurch Central -10.0% 29.4% 39.4%
63
Dunedin North -10.4% 33.8% 44.2%
64
Waimakariri -10.5% 23.4% 33.9%
65
Nelson -10.5% 27.3% 37.8%
66
Waiariki -10.5% 35.0% 45.6%
67
Te Tai Tokerau -11.0% 34.7% 45.6%
68
Te Tai Tonga -11.1% 38.5% 49.6%
69
Dunedin South -11.8% 35.0% 46.7%
70
Christchurch East -13.6% 31.7% 45.3%
Labour lost party vote in 66 of 70 seats. They increased it in Mangere, Manukau East, Manurewa and Mt Roskill. Overall 13 seats had a party vote decrease of less than 5%, 34 seats had a decrease of or over 7.5% The median change was in Otaki on -7.4% Labour’s largest drops were Christchurch East, Dunedin South and Te Tai Tonga.
- 25 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Wigram 30.0% 45.1% 15.1%
2
Mangere 23.5% 75.9% 52.4%
3
Rimutaka 12.3% 51.6% 39.3%
4
Manukau East 11.0% 77.1% 66.1%
5
Manurewa 9.3% 63.3% 54.0%
6
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 9.2% 60.7% 51.5%
7
Tamaki Makaurau 7.7% 35.1% 27.3%
8
Te Tai Tokerau 7.7% 37.1% 29.4%
9
Napier 7.1% 41.0% 33.9%
10
Wellington Central 7.0% 49.1% 42.2%
11
Hauraki-Waikato 5.9% 58.4% 52.5%
12
Tauranga 5.4% 13.2% 7.7%
13
Ohariu 4.9% 34.8% 29.9%
14
Auckland Central 4.7% 43.2% 38.5%
15
Palmerston North 4.5% 51.3% 46.8%
16
Botany 4.3% 25.3% 21.1%
17
West Coast Tasman 3.9% 47.5% 43.7%
18
Christchurch East 2.6% 55.5% 52.9%
19
East Coast Bays 2.1% 19.9% 17.8%
20
Waitakere 1.9% 44.8% 42.8%
21
New Lynn 1.8% 52.1% 50.3%
22
Port Hills 1.7% 48.4% 46.7%
23
Waimakariri 1.4% 45.5% 44.1%
24
Mt Roskill 1.3% 57.1% 55.8%
25
Bay of Plenty 0.9% 16.9% 16.1%
26
Rangitata 0.9% 37.1% 36.3%
27
Maungakiekie 0.7% 40.6% 39.8%
28
Christchurch Central 0.5% 44.4% 43.8%
29
Te Tai Hauauru 0.4% 29.8% 29.4%
30
Te Atatu 0.4% 53.8% 53.4%
31
Pakuranga 0.2% 21.8% 21.6%
32
Hutt South 0.1% 49.4% 49.3%
33
Papakura -0.1% 27.0% 27.1%
34
Whanganui -0.1% 37.5% 37.6%
35
Mt Albert -0.1% 59.2% 59.3%
36
East Coast -0.2% 31.8% 32.0%
37
Taranaki-King Country -0.3% 19.2% 19.6%
38
Hamilton East -0.4% 31.6% 32.0%
39
Kaikoura -0.7% 25.7% 26.4%
40
Rangitikei -0.7% 28.7% 29.4%
41
Wairarapa -0.8% 31.6% 32.4%
42
Nelson -0.9% 32.6% 33.5%
43
Whangarei -0.9% 22.4% 23.4%
44
Hunua -1.1% 16.8% 17.8%
45
Te Tai Tonga -1.2% 40.6% 41.8%
46
Northcote -1.5% 29.5% 31.0%
47
Tamaki -1.5% 19.2% 20.7%
48
Rongotai -1.9% 50.5% 52.4%
49
Invercargill -2.0% 34.8% 36.8%
50
Helensville -3.0% 14.1% 17.1%
51
Epsom -3.1% 10.4% 13.6%
52
Dunedin South -3.4% 48.9% 52.3%
53
North Shore -3.4% 20.6% 24.0%
54
Ilam -3.8% 20.3% 24.1%
55
Mana -4.5% 48.6% 53.1%
56
Waikato -4.5% 18.4% 22.9%
57
Clutha Southland -4.7% 16.8% 21.5%
58
Hamilton West -4.8% 39.1% 43.9%
59
Rodney -5.1% 13.7% 18.8%
60
Coromandel -5.2% 17.3% 22.5%
61
Tukituki -5.7% 29.3% 35.0%
62
Rotorua -6.4% 32.1% 38.5%
63
Waiariki -7.3% 24.5% 31.8%
64
New Plymouth -7.5% 40.4% 47.9%
65
Northland -7.6% 21.6% 29.2%
66
Otaki -7.7% 37.5% 45.2%
67
Waitaki -8.0% 24.0% 32.1%
68
Dunedin North -8.4% 44.3% 52.6%
69
Selwyn -14.5% 15.3% 29.8%
70
Taupo -18.7% 20.7% 39.4%
Labour’s increased the electorate vote in 32 seats. The biggest were Wigram, Mangere, Rimutaka and Manukau East. The median change was Mt Albert on -0.1% (from 2008) Labour lost EV in 38 seats. The biggest drops were 18.7% in Taupo, 14.5% in Selwyn, 8.4% in Dunedin North and 8.0% in Waitaki.
- 26 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
GREENS 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Wellington Central 27.7%
2
Rongotai 24.2%
3
Dunedin North 23.4%
4
Auckland Central 22.8%
5
Port Hills 19.6%
6
Mt Albert 17.2%
7
Christchurch Central 16.3%
8
Nelson 16.0%
9
Te Tai Tonga 15.8%
10
Ohariu 14.4%
11
West Coast Tasman 14.2%
12
Dunedin South 13.6%
13
Ilam 13.4%
14
Wigram 13.2%
15
Mana 12.8%
16
New Lynn 12.2%
17
Epsom 12.0%
18
Hutt South 12.0%
19
Waitaki 11.9%
20
Hamilton East 11.9%
21
Northland 11.8%
22
Christchurch East 11.7%
23
Selwyn 11.4%
24
Coromandel 11.4%
25
Te Tai Hauauru 11.2%
26
Kaikoura 11.1%
27
Northcote 10.9%
28
North Shore 10.9%
29
Whangarei 10.6%
30
Waitakere 10.6%
31
East Coast 10.6%
32
Palmerston North 10.5%
33
Rimutaka 10.0%
34
Wairarapa 9.8%
35
Napier 9.8%
36
Tamaki Makaurau 9.7%
37
Tukituki 9.7%
38
New Plymouth 9.7%
39
Otaki 9.6%
40
Maungakiekie 9.5%
41
Rangitikei 9.4%
42
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 9.4%
43
Hauraki-Waikato 9.1%
44
Whanganui 9.0%
45
Hamilton West 8.8%
46
Waiariki 8.8%
47
Tamaki 8.8%
48
Tauranga 8.8%
49
Bay of Plenty 8.7%
50
Clutha Southland 8.6%
51
Helensville 8.6%
52
Te Tai Tokerau 8.6%
53
Rotorua 8.6%
54
Waimakariri 8.5%
55
Rodney 8.5%
56
Invercargill 8.4%
57
Taranaki-King Country 8.2%
58
East Coast Bays 8.1%
59
Rangitata 8.1%
60
Taupo 7.6%
61
Mt Roskill 7.3%
62
Te Atatu 7.2%
63
Waikato 7.0%
64
Hunua 6.9%
65
Pakuranga 6.2%
66
Papakura 5.5%
67
Botany 4.4%
68
Manurewa 3.9%
69
Mangere 3.8%
70
Manukau East 3.4%
The Greens again did exceptionally well in Wellington achieving 27.7% in Wellington Central (beating Labour in the party vote) and 24.2% in Rongotai. Also above 20% was Dunedin North and Auckland Central. In nine seats they got over 15%, and in 33 seats, over 10%. Their median seat was Napier on 9.8%. This is less than their average of 11.1% so their stronger seats drags them up considerably. Their worst seats were Manukau East and Mangere. They were below 5% in four seats.
- 27 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Te Tai Tonga 8.6% 15.8% 7.2%
2
Te Tai Hauauru 7.6% 11.2% 3.5%
3
Dunedin North 7.6% 23.4% 15.8%
4
Auckland Central 7.3% 22.8% 15.5%
5
Rongotai 7.2% 24.2% 17.0%
6
Wellington Central 7.1% 27.7% 20.6%
7
Nelson 6.6% 16.0% 9.4%
8
Wigram 6.2% 13.2% 6.9%
9
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 6.2% 9.4% 3.2%
10
Waiariki 6.2% 8.8% 2.7%
11
Mt Albert 6.2% 17.2% 11.0%
12
Hauraki-Waikato 5.9% 9.1% 3.2%
13
Port Hills 5.8% 19.6% 13.8%
14
Tamaki Makaurau 5.7% 9.7% 4.0%
15
Dunedin South 5.6% 13.6% 8.0%
16
Ohariu 5.3% 14.4% 9.1%
17
Ilam 5.2% 13.4% 8.2%
18
Epsom 5.1% 12.0% 6.9%
19
Te Tai Tokerau 5.1% 8.6% 3.5%
20
Christchurch Central 5.1% 16.3% 11.2%
21
Waitaki 4.9% 11.9% 7.0%
22
Hamilton East 4.7% 11.9% 7.2%
23
Whangarei 4.6% 10.6% 6.0%
24
New Lynn 4.5% 12.2% 7.6%
25
Christchurch East 4.5% 11.7% 7.2%
26
Northland 4.4% 11.8% 7.3%
27
Mana 4.4% 12.8% 8.4%
28
Hutt South 4.3% 12.0% 7.7%
29
Napier 4.3% 9.8% 5.5%
30
Northcote 4.2% 10.9% 6.7%
31
East Coast 4.2% 10.6% 6.4%
32
North Shore 4.2% 10.9% 6.6%
33
Tauranga 4.2% 8.8% 4.6%
34
Invercargill 4.2% 8.4% 4.3%
35
Waitakere 4.2% 10.6% 6.5%
36
Kaikoura 4.1% 11.1% 7.0%
37
Wairarapa 4.1% 9.8% 5.7%
38
Maungakiekie 4.0% 9.5% 5.5%
39
Rimutaka 4.0% 10.0% 5.9%
40
Rangitikei 4.0% 9.4% 5.4%
41
Palmerston North 4.0% 10.5% 6.5%
42
East Coast Bays 4.0% 8.1% 4.1%
43
Otaki 4.0% 9.6% 5.6%
44
Selwyn 3.9% 11.4% 7.5%
45
Rangitata 3.8% 8.1% 4.2%
46
Bay of Plenty 3.8% 8.7% 4.9%
47
Coromandel 3.8% 11.4% 7.6%
48
Hamilton West 3.8% 8.8% 5.1%
49
Helensville 3.7% 8.6% 4.9%
50
Whanganui 3.7% 9.0% 5.3%
51
Tukituki 3.6% 9.7% 6.0%
52
Rotorua 3.6% 8.6% 5.0%
53
Clutha Southland 3.5% 8.6% 5.1%
54
Hunua 3.5% 6.9% 3.4%
55
Tamaki 3.5% 8.8% 5.3%
56
West Coast Tasman 3.3% 14.2% 10.9%
57
Rodney 3.3% 8.5% 5.2%
58
Taranaki-King Country 3.3% 8.2% 5.0%
59
Te Atatu 3.2% 7.2% 4.0%
60
New Plymouth 3.2% 9.7% 6.4%
61
Waikato 3.1% 7.0% 3.9%
62
Taupo 3.0% 7.6% 4.5%
63
Waimakariri 3.0% 8.5% 5.4%
64
Mt Roskill 3.0% 7.3% 4.3%
65
Pakuranga 2.6% 6.2% 3.6%
66
Papakura 2.5% 5.5% 3.0%
67
Botany 2.0% 4.4% 2.4%
68
Mangere 1.8% 3.8% 2.0%
69
Manurewa 1.7% 3.9% 2.2%
70
Manukau East 1.6% 3.4% 1.8%
The Greens gained support in all 70 seats. Their biggest increases were two of the Maori seats at and then Dunedin North and Auckland Central. Overall 20 seats had a party vote increase of over 5%. The median increase was Waitakere on 4.2%. The smallest increases were the three South Auckland seats.
- 28 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NZ FIRST 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Tauranga 14.9%
2
Bay of Plenty 12.6%
3
Coromandel 11.0%
4
Waiariki 10.9%
5
Rotorua 10.6%
6
Tamaki Makaurau 10.4%
7
Northland 10.2%
8
Te Tai Tokerau 9.9%
9
Hauraki-Waikato 9.8%
10
Whangarei 9.7%
11
Whanganui 9.5%
12
Te Tai Tonga 8.8%
13
East Coast 8.5%
14
Papakura 8.5%
15
Taupo 8.4%
16
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 8.3%
17
Otaki 8.1%
18
Waikato 8.1%
19
Te Tai Hauauru 7.9%
20
Wairarapa 7.8%
21
Hamilton West 7.7%
22
Hunua 7.4%
23
Manurewa 7.4%
24
Rangitikei 7.3%
25
Taranaki-King Country 7.3%
26
Dunedin South 7.2%
27
Rodney 7.0%
28
Invercargill 6.8%
29
Te Atatu 6.7%
30
Kaikoura 6.6%
31
Waitakere 6.5%
32
Manukau East 6.3%
33
New Plymouth 6.3%
34
Christchurch East 6.3%
35
Rimutaka 6.3%
36
New Lynn 6.2%
37
Wigram 6.0%
38
Hutt South 6.0%
39
Waimakariri 5.9%
40
Mangere 5.9%
41
Tukituki 5.9%
42
Rangitata 5.8%
43
West Coast Tasman 5.7%
44
Dunedin North 5.7%
45
Pakuranga 5.7%
46
Palmerston North 5.7%
47
Northcote 5.6%
48
Napier 5.6%
49
Nelson 5.4%
50
Hamilton East 5.4%
51
Waitaki 5.2%
52
Maungakiekie 5.2%
53
Christchurch Central 5.0%
54
East Coast Bays 4.9%
55
Clutha Southland 4.9%
56
North Shore 4.9%
57
Mana 4.8%
58
Port Hills 4.8%
59
Selwyn 4.7%
60
Mt Roskill 4.7%
61
Helensville 4.6%
62
Mt Albert 4.5%
63
Rongotai 4.4%
64
Botany 4.4%
65
Auckland Central 4.1%
66
Ilam 4.0%
67
Ohariu 3.9%
68
Tamaki 3.8%
69
Wellington Central 2.9%
70
Epsom 2.6% Seven seats got into double digits for NZ First. In total 53 out of 70 seats had NZ First over the 5% threshold. Their median seat was Rimutaka at 6.3%. Their lowest support was in central city seats such as Epsom and Wellington Central – at 2.6% and 2.9%.
- 29 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Tauranga 4.8% 14.9% 10.1%
2
Coromandel 4.7% 11.0% 6.3%
3
Tamaki Makaurau 4.6% 10.4% 5.9%
4
Whanganui 4.4% 9.5% 5.1%
5
Bay of Plenty 4.4% 12.6% 8.3%
6
Hauraki-Waikato 4.4% 9.8% 5.5%
7
Rotorua 4.2% 10.6% 6.3%
8
Northland 3.8% 10.2% 6.4%
9
Whangarei 3.5% 9.7% 6.2%
10
Invercargill 3.4% 6.8% 3.4%
11
Hamilton West 3.4% 7.7% 4.3%
12
Papakura 3.4% 8.5% 5.1%
13
Taupo 3.3% 8.4% 5.1%
14
Te Tai Tonga 3.2% 8.8% 5.6%
15
Waiariki 3.1% 10.9% 7.8%
16
Wigram 3.1% 6.0% 3.0%
17
Hunua 3.0% 7.4% 4.4%
18
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 2.9% 8.3% 5.4%
19
Waitakere 2.9% 6.5% 3.6%
20
Manurewa 2.8% 7.4% 4.5%
21
Waikato 2.8% 8.1% 5.3%
22
Taranaki-King Country 2.8% 7.3% 4.5%
23
Te Tai Hauauru 2.7% 7.9% 5.2%
24
Tukituki 2.7% 5.9% 3.2%
25
East Coast 2.7% 8.5% 5.8%
26
Manukau East 2.6% 6.3% 3.7%
27
Otaki 2.6% 8.1% 5.5%
28
New Lynn 2.6% 6.2% 3.6%
29
Dunedin South 2.6% 7.2% 4.6%
30
Te Atatu 2.6% 6.7% 4.2%
31
Mangere 2.6% 5.9% 3.3%
32
Hutt South 2.5% 6.0% 3.5%
33
Northcote 2.5% 5.6% 3.2%
34
Rodney 2.4% 7.0% 4.5%
35
Te Tai Tokerau 2.4% 9.9% 7.4%
36
Nelson 2.4% 5.4% 3.0%
37
Christchurch 2.3% 6.3% 3.9%
East
38
Dunedin North 2.3% 5.7% 3.4%
39
Wairarapa 2.3% 7.8% 5.6%
40
Botany 2.3% 4.4% 2.1%
41
New Plymouth 2.3% 6.3% 4.0%
42
Maungakiekie 2.2% 5.2% 3.0%
43
Pakuranga 2.2% 5.7% 3.5%
44
Rangitikei 2.2% 7.3% 5.1%
45
Rimutaka 2.2% 6.3% 4.1%
46
East Coast Bays 2.1% 4.9% 2.8%
47
Port Hills 2.1% 4.8% 2.8%
48
Hamilton East 2.1% 5.4% 3.3%
49
Helensville 2.1% 4.6% 2.5%
50
Rangitata 2.0% 5.8% 3.8%
51
Clutha Southland 2.0% 4.9% 2.9%
52
Kaikoura 2.0% 6.6% 4.6%
53
Waimakariri 2.0% 5.9% 4.0%
54
Rongotai 1.9% 4.4% 2.5%
55
North Shore 1.9% 4.9% 2.9%
56
West Coast Tasman 1.9% 5.7% 3.8%
57
Napier 1.9% 5.6% 3.7%
58
Mt Roskill 1.9% 4.7% 2.8%
59
Mana 1.9% 4.8% 3.0%
60
Mt Albert 1.9% 4.5% 2.7%
61
Christchurch Central 1.8% 5.0% 3.1%
62
Ohariu 1.8% 3.9% 2.1%
63
Auckland Central 1.8% 4.1% 2.3%
64
Selwyn 1.7% 4.7% 3.0%
65
Palmerston North 1.6% 5.7% 4.0%
66
Waitaki 1.6% 5.2% 3.6%
67
Ilam 1.5% 4.0% 2.4%
68
Wellington Central 1.3% 2.9% 1.5%
69
Tamaki 1.3% 3.8% 2.5%
70
Epsom 1.2% 2.6% 1.5%
NZ First gained party vote in all 70 seats. Their biggest increase was Tauranga and Coromandel. The median increase was Te Tai Tokerau at 2.4% Their smallest increase was Epsom at 1.2%.
- 30 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
CONSERVATIVE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Rodney 6.4%
2
Northland 5.2%
3
Whangarei 4.2%
4
Rangitikei 4.2%
5
Bay of Plenty 4.1%
6
Tauranga 4.1%
7
Waikato 4.1%
8
Coromandel 3.9%
9
Taranaki-King Country 3.8%
10
Tukituki 3.8%
11
Kaikoura 3.8%
12
Wairarapa 3.8%
13
East Coast Bays 3.7%
14
Hunua 3.7%
15
Taupo 3.7%
16
Pakuranga 3.5%
17
Helensville 3.5%
18
Hamilton East 3.4%
19
Napier 3.4%
20
Waimakariri 3.3%
21
Whanganui 3.2%
22
Otaki 3.2%
23
Hamilton West 3.2%
24
West Coast Tasman 3.2%
25
Clutha Southland 3.1%
26
Papakura 3.1%
27
East Coast 3.0%
28
Palmerston North 3.0%
29
Rotorua 3.0%
30
Waitaki 2.9%
31
Rimutaka 2.8%
32
Te Atatu 2.8%
33
Nelson 2.7%
34
Botany 2.7%
35
New Lynn 2.6%
36
Northcote 2.5%
37
Selwyn 2.5%
38
Mt Roskill 2.4%
39
Waitakere 2.4%
40
Rangitata 2.4%
41
Wigram 2.4%
42
Manurewa 2.3%
43
North Shore 2.2%
44
Christchurch East 2.1%
45
Ilam 2.1%
46
Hutt South 2.0%
47
Invercargill 2.0%
48
New Plymouth 2.0%
49
Mana 1.8%
50
Christchurch Central 1.7%
51
Maungakiekie 1.7%
52
Ohariu 1.7%
53
Port Hills 1.6%
54
Mt Albert 1.6%
55
Mangere 1.6%
56
Tamaki 1.5%
57
Dunedin South 1.5%
58
Manukau East 1.5%
59
Dunedin North 1.4%
60
Epsom 1.1%
61
Rongotai 1.1%
62
Auckland Central 0.8%
63
Wellington Central 0.7%
64
Te Tai Tonga 0.7%
65
Te Tai Tokerau 0.5%
66
Tamaki Makaurau 0.5%
67
Hauraki-Waikato 0.4%
68
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.4%
69
Te Tai Hauauru 0.4%
70
Waiariki 0.3% Conservative’s highest party vote was in Rodney where Colin Craig stood – at 6.4%. Northland at 5.2% is the only other seat in which they broke the 5% threshold. They got over 3% party vote in 29 seats. Their median seat was New Lynn on 2.6%. The Maori seats were their worse seats followed by Wellington Central and Auckland Central.
- 31 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
MAORI PARTY 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Waiariki 21.2%
2
Te Tai Hauauru 21.1%
3
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 15.0%
4
Tamaki Makaurau 14.4%
5
Te Tai Tonga 13.5%
6
Hauraki-Waikato 13.1%
7
Te Tai Tokerau 11.2%
8
Auckland Central 1.6%
9
Rotorua 1.3%
10
East Coast 1.1%
11
Northland 0.8%
12
Rangitikei 0.8%
13
Tukituki 0.8%
14
Whanganui 0.7%
15
Wellington Central 0.7%
16
Rongotai 0.7%
17
Taranaki-King Country 0.7%
18
Taupo 0.7%
19
Mana 0.7%
20
Manurewa 0.6%
21
Maungakiekie 0.6%
22
Te Atatu 0.6%
23
Wairarapa 0.6%
24
Whangarei 0.6%
25
Napier 0.6%
26
New Plymouth 0.6%
27
North Shore 0.6%
28
Hutt South 0.6%
29
Waikato 0.6%
30
Epsom 0.6%
31
Bay of Plenty 0.6%
32
Hamilton West 0.6%
33
Hamilton East 0.6%
34
Papakura 0.6%
35
Otaki 0.6%
36
Rimutaka 0.6%
37
Northcote 0.6%
38
Waitakere 0.5%
39
Mangere 0.5%
40
Ohariu 0.5%
41
Hunua 0.5%
42
Mt Albert 0.5%
43
Helensville 0.5%
44
Tamaki 0.5%
45
Palmerston North 0.5%
46
Invercargill 0.5%
47
Ilam 0.5%
48
Tauranga 0.5%
49
Christchurch Central 0.5%
50
Manukau East 0.5%
51
Nelson 0.5%
52
New Lynn 0.4%
53
Wigram 0.4%
54
Coromandel 0.4%
55
Kaikoura 0.4%
56
West Coast Tasman 0.4%
57
Clutha Southland 0.4%
58
Dunedin North 0.4%
59
Port Hills 0.4%
60
East Coast Bays 0.4%
61
Mt Roskill 0.4%
62
Selwyn 0.4%
63
Rodney 0.4%
64
Waitaki 0.4%
65
Rangitata 0.3%
66
Pakuranga 0.3%
67
Dunedin South 0.3%
68
Christchurch East 0.3%
69
Botany 0.3%
70
Waimakariri 0.3%
As expected the Maori Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation though ranging from 21.2% in Waiariki to 11.2% in Te Tai Tokerau. Their next best seats were Auckland Central and Rotorua on 1.6% and 1.3%. In only 10 seats did they get over 1% Their median seat was Otaki on 0.6%. Their worst seats were Waimakariri, Botany, Chch East and Dunedin South on 0.3%.
- 32 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Auckland Central 0.7% 1.6% 0.9%
2
Pakuranga 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%
3
Rangitata 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%
4
Helensville 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
5
Epsom 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%
6
Clutha Southland 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
7
North Shore 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%
8
Tamaki 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
9
East Coast Bays 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
10
Hunua 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
11
Botany 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%
12
Ilam 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
13
Selwyn 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
14
Nelson -0.1% 0.5% 0.5%
15
Maungakiekie -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
16
Tauranga -0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
17
Invercargill -0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
18
Northcote -0.1% 0.6% 0.6%
19
Mt Roskill -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
20
Tukituki -0.1% 0.8% 0.9%
21
Wairarapa -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
22
Bay of Plenty -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
23
Waimakariri -0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
24
Rodney -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
25
Dunedin South -0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
26
Wigram -0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
27
Rangitikei -0.1% 0.8% 0.9%
28
Kaikoura -0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
29
Waikato -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
30
New Plymouth -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
31
Wellington Central -0.1% 0.7% 0.9%
32
Waitaki -0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
33
Napier -0.2% 0.6% 0.8%
34
Rimutaka -0.2% 0.6% 0.7%
35
Ohariu -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
36
West Coast Tasman -0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
37
Christchurch Central -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
38
Palmerston North -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
39
Te Atatu -0.2% 0.6% 0.8%
40
Christchurch East -0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
41
Waitakere -0.2% 0.5% 0.8%
42
Rongotai -0.2% 0.7% 0.9%
43
Taupo -0.2% 0.7% 0.9%
44
Hutt South -0.3% 0.6% 0.8%
45
Mt Albert -0.3% 0.5% 0.8%
46
New Lynn -0.3% 0.4% 0.7%
47
Otaki -0.3% 0.6% 0.8%
48
Dunedin North -0.3% 0.4% 0.7%
49
Port Hills -0.3% 0.4% 0.7%
50
Whanganui -0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
51
Whangarei -0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
52
Coromandel -0.3% 0.4% 0.7%
53
Taranaki-King Country -0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
54
Papakura -0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
55
Hamilton East -0.4% 0.6% 1.0%
56
Mana -0.4% 0.7% 1.0%
57
East Coast -0.4% 1.1% 1.4%
58
Mangere -0.4% 0.5% 1.0%
59
Hamilton West -0.5% 0.6% 1.1%
60
Rotorua -0.5% 1.3% 1.8%
61
Manukau East -0.5% 0.5% 1.0%
62
Manurewa -0.6% 0.6% 1.3%
63
Northland -0.7% 0.8% 1.5%
64
Te Tai Tonga -8.8% 13.5% 22.3%
65
Te Tai Hauauru -9.7% 21.1% 30.8%
66
Ikaroa-Rawhiti -11.9% 15.0% 26.9%
67
Waiariki -14.1% 21.2% 35.3%
68
Tamaki Makaurau -14.2% 14.4% 28.6%
69
Hauraki-Waikato -14.6% 13.1% 27.7%
70
Te Tai Tokerau -19.6% 11.2% 30.8%
The Maori Party increased their vote in Auckland Central only. Their median decrease was Ohariu on -0.2%. Their biggest decrease was Te Tai Tokerau on -19.6%.
- 33 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
MANA PARTY 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Te Tai Tokerau 24.5%
2
Waiariki 16.6%
3
Tamaki Makaurau 13.7%
4
Hauraki-Waikato 11.2%
5
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 9.6%
6
Te Tai Hauauru 8.2%
7
Te Tai Tonga 5.9%
8
Northland 1.3%
9
Rotorua 1.0%
10
Mangere 1.0%
11
Manukau East 0.9%
12
Manurewa 0.9%
13
East Coast 0.8%
14
Auckland Central 0.7%
15
Whangarei 0.7%
16
Wellington Central 0.6%
17
Dunedin North 0.6%
18
Mt Albert 0.6%
19
Waitakere 0.6%
20
Rongotai 0.5%
21
Te Atatu 0.5%
22
Papakura 0.5%
23
Mana 0.5%
24
New Lynn 0.4%
25
Taupo 0.4%
26
Maungakiekie 0.4%
27
Hutt South 0.4%
28
Hamilton West 0.4%
29
Christchurch Central 0.4%
30
Tukituki 0.3%
31
Northcote 0.3%
32
Port Hills 0.3%
33
Waikato 0.3%
34
Palmerston North 0.3%
35
Tamaki 0.3%
36
West Coast Tasman 0.3%
37
Hamilton East 0.3%
38
Taranaki-King Country 0.3%
39
Coromandel 0.3%
40
Bay of Plenty 0.3%
41
Botany 0.2%
42
Epsom 0.2%
43
Napier 0.2%
44
Whanganui 0.2%
45
Rimutaka 0.2%
46
Christchurch East 0.2%
47
Wairarapa 0.2%
48
Otaki 0.2%
49
New Plymouth 0.2%
50
Hunua 0.2%
51
Wigram 0.2%
52
Mt Roskill 0.2%
53
Rangitikei 0.2%
54
Invercargill 0.2%
55
Ohariu 0.2%
56
East Coast Bays 0.2%
57
Nelson 0.2%
58
Dunedin South 0.2%
59
Helensville 0.2%
60
North Shore 0.2%
61
Tauranga 0.2%
62
Ilam 0.2%
63
Clutha Southland 0.2%
64
Rodney 0.2%
65
Selwyn 0.1%
66
Waitaki 0.1%
67
Kaikoura 0.1%
68
Pakuranga 0.1%
69
Waimakariri 0.1%
70
Rangitata 0.1%
As expected the Mana Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation though ranging from 24.5% in Te Tai Tokerau to 5.9% in Te Tai Tonga. Their next best seats were Northland and Rotorua on 1.3% and 1.0%. In only 10 seats did they get over 1%. They got below 0.5% in 47 seats. Their median seat was Tamaki on 0.3%. Their worst seats were Rangitata and Waimakariri on 0.1%.
- 34 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
ACT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Epsom 2.6%
2
Tamaki 2.4%
3
Waikato 1.9%
4
North Shore 1.9%
5
Clutha Southland 1.8%
6
Pakuranga 1.8%
7
Whangarei 1.7%
8
Botany 1.6%
9
Northland 1.6%
10
East Coast Bays 1.6%
11
Rangitikei 1.5%
12
Taranaki-King Country 1.5%
13
Northcote 1.5%
14
Tukituki 1.5%
15
Hunua 1.5%
16
Helensville 1.4%
17
Coromandel 1.4%
18
Wairarapa 1.3%
19
Invercargill 1.2%
20
Rodney 1.2%
21
Maungakiekie 1.2%
22
Auckland Central 1.2%
23
Wellington Central 1.2%
24
Taupo 1.2%
25
Tauranga 1.2%
26
Bay of Plenty 1.2%
27
Ilam 1.2%
28
Waitaki 1.1%
29
Kaikoura 1.1%
30
Whanganui 1.1%
31
Mt Roskill 1.1%
32
Napier 1.1%
33
Papakura 1.0%
34
Hamilton East 1.0%
35
New Plymouth 1.0%
36
Rangitata 1.0%
37
New Lynn 1.0%
38
East Coast 0.9%
39
Mt Albert 0.9%
40
Selwyn 0.9%
41
Hamilton West 0.9%
42
Te Atatu 0.9%
43
Rotorua 0.9%
44
Waitakere 0.8%
45
West Coast Tasman 0.8%
46
Christchurch Central 0.8%
47
Hutt South 0.8%
48
Ohariu 0.8%
49
Palmerston North 0.7%
50
Port Hills 0.7%
51
Nelson 0.7%
52
Dunedin North 0.7%
53
Rimutaka 0.7%
54
Otaki 0.7%
55
Rongotai 0.6%
56
Wigram 0.6%
57
Manurewa 0.6%
58
Dunedin South 0.6%
59
Waimakariri 0.5%
60
Manukau East 0.5%
61
Mana 0.5%
62
Christchurch East 0.4%
63
Mangere 0.3%
64
Te Tai Tokerau 0.2%
65
Hauraki-Waikato 0.2%
66
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.2%
67
Te Tai Tonga 0.2%
68
Tamaki Makaurau 0.2%
69
Waiariki 0.1%
70
Te Tai Hauauru 0.1% Act’s highest party vote was in Epsom where John Banks stood – at 2.8%. They got over 1.2% party vote (enough for a second MP) in 18 seats. Their median seat was New Plymouth on 1.0%. The Maori seats were their worse seats followed by Mangere, Christchurch East and Mana.
- 35 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
2
Waiariki -0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
3
Te Tai Hauauru -0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
4
Te Tai Tokerau -0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
5
Hauraki-Waikato -0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
6
Te Tai Tonga -0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
7
Tamaki Makaurau -0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
8
Mangere -0.8% 0.3% 1.1%
9
Manukau East -1.1% 0.5% 1.6%
10
Wigram -1.2% 0.6% 1.9%
11
West Coast Tasman -1.3% 0.8% 2.2%
12
Rongotai -1.3% 0.6% 2.0%
13
Invercargill -1.5% 1.2% 2.7%
14
Dunedin South -1.5% 0.6% 2.1%
15
Dunedin North -1.5% 0.7% 2.3%
16
Christchurch East -1.6% 0.4% 1.9%
17
East Coast -1.6% 0.9% 2.6%
18
Port Hills -1.6% 0.7% 2.4%
19
Tauranga -1.7% 1.2% 2.9%
20
Nelson -1.8% 0.7% 2.5%
21
Bay of Plenty -1.8% 1.2% 2.9%
22
Rotorua -1.8% 0.9% 2.6%
23
Manurewa -1.8% 0.6% 2.4%
24
Rimutaka -1.9% 0.7% 2.6%
25
Mana -1.9% 0.5% 2.4%
26
Otaki -1.9% 0.7% 2.6%
27
Christchurch Central -1.9% 0.8% 2.7%
28
Kaikoura -2.0% 1.1% 3.1%
29
Whanganui -2.0% 1.1% 3.1%
30
Palmerston North -2.0% 0.7% 2.7%
31
Hutt South -2.0% 0.8% 2.8%
32
Waimakariri -2.0% 0.5% 2.5%
33
Clutha Southland -2.1% 1.8% 3.9%
34
Whangarei -2.1% 1.7% 3.8%
35
New Plymouth -2.2% 1.0% 3.2%
36
Te Atatu -2.3% 0.9% 3.2%
37
Mt Roskill -2.3% 1.1% 3.4%
38
Taupo -2.3% 1.2% 3.5%
39
Waitaki -2.5% 1.1% 3.6%
40
Waitakere -2.6% 0.8% 3.4%
41
Northland -2.6% 1.6% 4.2%
42
Mt Albert -2.6% 0.9% 3.5%
43
Napier -2.6% 1.1% 3.7%
44
Ohariu -2.7% 0.8% 3.4%
45
Ilam -2.7% 1.2% 3.8%
46
New Lynn -2.7% 1.0% 3.7%
47
Rangitata -2.7% 1.0% 3.8%
48
Selwyn -2.8% 0.9% 3.7%
49
Wellington Central -2.8% 1.2% 4.0%
50
Rangitikei -2.8% 1.5% 4.3%
51
Hamilton West -2.8% 0.9% 3.7%
52
Tukituki -2.9% 1.5% 4.4%
53
Auckland Central -3.0% 1.2% 4.1%
54
Coromandel -3.0% 1.4% 4.4%
55
Hamilton East -3.1% 1.0% 4.1%
56
Botany -3.2% 1.6% 4.8%
57
Wairarapa -3.2% 1.3% 4.5%
58
Maungakiekie -3.3% 1.2% 4.5%
59
Taranaki-King Country -3.6% 1.5% 5.1%
60
Epsom -3.7% 2.6% 6.2%
61
Northcote -3.8% 1.5% 5.3%
62
East Coast Bays -4.1% 1.6% 5.7%
63
Waikato -4.5% 1.9% 6.5%
64
Papakura -5.0% 1.0% 6.1%
65
Helensville -5.3% 1.4% 6.7%
66
Rodney -5.4% 1.2% 6.6%
67
Pakuranga -5.4% 1.8% 7.2%
68
North Shore -5.6% 1.9% 7.5%
69
Tamaki -5.6% 2.4% 7.9%
70
Hunua -6.8% 1.5% 8.2%
ACT lost support in every seat. Their smallest decreases were the Maori seats as there was less vote to lose. The median drop was New Plymouth on 2.2% Seven seats had a drop of over 5% with the largest being Hunua which dropped 6.8%.
- 36 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
UNITED FUTURE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Ohariu 1.8%
2
West Coast Tasman 1.4%
3
Taranaki-King Country 1.1%
4
Rimutaka 1.0%
5
Nelson 1.0%
6
Taupo 0.9%
7
East Coast 0.9%
8
Kaikoura 0.9%
9
Hutt South 0.9%
10
Rangitata 0.9%
11
Waitaki 0.8%
12
Rangitikei 0.8%
13
Rotorua 0.8%
14
Invercargill 0.8%
15
Clutha Southland 0.8%
16
Hamilton East 0.8%
17
Wigram 0.8%
18
Waikato 0.8%
19
Ilam 0.7%
20
Hamilton West 0.7%
21
Otaki 0.7%
22
Selwyn 0.7%
23
Coromandel 0.7%
24
Mana 0.7%
25
Wairarapa 0.7%
26
Wellington Central 0.7%
27
Tukituki 0.6%
28
Palmerston North 0.6%
29
Dunedin North 0.6%
30
Napier 0.6%
31
Rongotai 0.6%
32
Northcote 0.6%
33
Waimakariri 0.6%
34
Bay of Plenty 0.6%
35
Tauranga 0.6%
36
Christchurch East 0.6%
37
Christchurch Central 0.5%
38
Dunedin South 0.5%
39
Whangarei 0.5%
40
North Shore 0.5%
41
Hunua 0.5%
42
Port Hills 0.5%
43
Pakuranga 0.5%
44
Northland 0.5%
45
Helensville 0.5%
46
New Plymouth 0.5%
47
Whanganui 0.4%
48
East Coast Bays 0.4%
49
Papakura 0.4%
50
Tamaki 0.4%
51
Waitakere 0.4%
52
Rodney 0.4%
53
Te Atatu 0.4%
54
Mt Roskill 0.4%
55
Maungakiekie 0.4%
56
New Lynn 0.4%
57
Mt Albert 0.3%
58
Botany 0.3%
59
Epsom 0.3%
60
Te Tai Tonga 0.2%
61
Manurewa 0.2%
62
Auckland Central 0.2%
63
Mangere 0.2%
64
Hauraki-Waikato 0.2%
65
Manukau East 0.2%
66
Te Tai Hauauru 0.1%
67
Waiariki 0.1%
68
Te Tai Tokerau 0.1%
69
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.1%
70
Tamaki Makaurau 0.1% United’s highest party vote was in Ohariu where Peter Dunne stood – at 1.8%. Second was West Coast-Tasman at 1.4% They got 1.0% party vote or higher in just 5 seats. Their median seat was Tauranga on 0.6%. Six of the Maori seats were their worse seats followed by Manukau East, Mangere and Auckland Central
- 37 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
UNITED FUTURE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Taranaki-King Country 0.3% 1.1% 0.8%
2
West Coast Tasman 0.2% 1.4% 1.2%
3
Taupo 0.1% 0.9% 0.8%
4
Waitaki 0.1% 0.8% 0.7%
5
Tukituki 0.1% 0.6% 0.5%
6
Clutha Southland 0.1% 0.8% 0.8%
7
Te Tai Tonga 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
8
Te Tai Hauauru 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
9
Hauraki-Waikato 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
10
Wairarapa 0.0% 0.7% 0.7%
11
Napier 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%
12
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
13
Rangitata 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
14
Waiariki 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
15
Rotorua 0.0% 0.8% 0.8%
16
Kaikoura 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
17
Te Tai Tokerau 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
18
Coromandel -0.1% 0.7% 0.7%
19
Tamaki Makaurau -0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
20
Nelson -0.1% 1.0% 1.1%
21
Invercargill -0.1% 0.8% 0.9%
22
Waikato -0.1% 0.8% 0.9%
23
Tauranga -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
24
Bay of Plenty -0.1% 0.6% 0.7%
25
Christchurch Central -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
26
Whangarei -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
27
New Plymouth -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
28
Whanganui -0.2% 0.4% 0.7%
29
Northland -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
30
Dunedin South -0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
31
Wigram -0.2% 0.8% 1.0%
32
Auckland Central -0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
33
Rongotai -0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
34
Otaki -0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
35
Waitakere -0.3% 0.4% 0.7%
36
Manukau East -0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
37
East Coast Bays -0.3% 0.4% 0.7%
38
Mt Albert -0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
39
Helensville -0.3% 0.5% 0.8%
40
Rangitikei -0.3% 0.8% 1.1%
41
Dunedin North -0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
42
Waimakariri -0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
43
Hunua -0.3% 0.5% 0.8%
44
Wellington Central -0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
45
Tamaki -0.4% 0.4% 0.8%
46
Epsom -0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
47
Rodney -0.4% 0.4% 0.8%
48
Botany -0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
49
Christchurch East -0.4% 0.6% 0.9%
50
Northcote -0.4% 0.6% 1.0%
51
Hamilton West -0.4% 0.7% 1.1%
52
Papakura -0.4% 0.4% 0.8%
53
Rimutaka -0.4% 1.0% 1.4%
54
Port Hills -0.4% 0.5% 0.9%
55
Manurewa -0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
56
Ohariu -0.4% 1.8% 2.2%
57
Selwyn -0.5% 0.7% 1.1%
58
New Lynn -0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
59
North Shore -0.5% 0.5% 0.9%
60
Mt Roskill -0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
61
Te Atatu -0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
62
Pakuranga -0.5% 0.5% 1.0%
63
Hutt South -0.5% 0.9% 1.4%
64
Hamilton East -0.6% 0.8% 1.4%
65
Palmerston North -0.6% 0.6% 1.2%
66
Mana -0.6% 0.7% 1.3%
67
Ilam -0.7% 0.7% 1.4%
68
Mangere -0.7% 0.2% 0.9%
69
Maungakiekie -0.7% 0.4% 1.1%
70
East Coast -1.3% 0.9% 2.2%
United Future gained votes in 17 seats, with the largest gains being Taranaki-King Country and West Coast-Tasman. The median drop was Waitakere on -0.3% Seven seats had a drop of over -0.5% with the largest being East Coast which dropped 1.3%.
- 38 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
RIGHT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (National/ACT/United Future)
1
Helensville 67.6%
2
Epsom 67.4%
3
Tamaki 67.2%
4
Clutha Southland 65.5%
5
Pakuranga 65.1%
6
East Coast Bays 64.9%
7
North Shore 64.6%
8
Hunua 64.5%
9
Selwyn 64.3%
10
Rodney 63.7%
11
Botany 63.1%
12
Taranaki-King Country 63.0%
13
Waikato 62.7%
14
Ilam 60.2%
15
Bay of Plenty 59.4%
16
Taupo 58.4%
17
Waimakariri 58.0%
18
Kaikoura 57.4%
19
Waitaki 57.2%
20
Rangitikei 56.3%
21
Tauranga 56.0%
22
Rangitata 55.5%
23
New Plymouth 54.7%
24
Tukituki 54.7%
25
Northcote 54.3%
26
Coromandel 54.2%
27
Papakura 54.1%
28
Wairarapa 53.5%
29
Hamilton East 53.2%
30
Rotorua 52.9%
31
Whangarei 52.9%
32
Northland 52.2%
33
Ohariu 52.1%
34
Invercargill 51.9%
35
East Coast 51.6%
36
Napier 50.4%
37
Hamilton West 49.4%
38
Whanganui 49.1%
39
Otaki 48.2%
40
West Coast Tasman 48.0%
41
Nelson 47.1%
42
Christchurch East 47.0%
43
Rimutaka 46.4%
44
Wigram 46.0%
45
Christchurch Central 45.9%
46
Palmerston North 45.5%
47
Maungakiekie 45.2%
48
Port Hills 44.9%
49
Auckland Central 43.6%
50
Hutt South 42.7%
51
Te Atatu 42.5%
52
Waitakere 41.5%
53
Dunedin South 41.3%
54
Mana 41.1%
55
Mt Roskill 41.0%
56
New Lynn 40.6%
57
Wellington Central 40.2%
58
Mt Albert 37.9%
59
Rongotai 34.2%
60
Dunedin North 33.7%
61
Manurewa 27.0%
62
Manukau East 20.3%
63
Te Tai Tonga 15.3%
64
Mangere 14.9%
65
Te Tai Tokerau 9.5%
66
Hauraki-Waikato 8.7%
67
Tamaki Makaurau 8.6%
68
Te Tai Hauauru 8.1%
69
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 6.2%
70
Waiariki 5.9%
Helensville at 67.6% had the highest right vote followed by Epsom. 14 seats in total had a right vote over 60% and 36 seats had a right vote of over 50%. The median electorate was East Coast on 51.6%. 13 seats had a right vote of below 40%. The lowest electorates after the Maori seats and South Auckland were Dunedin North, Rongotai and Mt Albert. The seat with the highest right party vote that Labour won was West Coast-Tasman at 48.0%. The seat with the lowest right party vote that National won was Auckland Central at 43.6%.
- 39 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
CENTRE 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Conservative/Maori)
1
Waiariki 21.5%
2
Te Tai Hauauru 21.4%
3
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 15.4%
4
Tamaki Makaurau 15.0%
5
Te Tai Tonga 14.2%
6
Hauraki-Waikato 13.5%
7
Te Tai Tokerau 11.7%
8
Rodney 6.7%
9
Northland 6.0%
10
Rangitikei 5.0%
11
Whangarei 4.8%
12
Bay of Plenty 4.7%
13
Waikato 4.7%
14
Tauranga 4.6%
15
Tukituki 4.6%
16
Taranaki-King Country 4.5%
17
Wairarapa 4.4%
18
Coromandel 4.3%
19
Taupo 4.3%
20
Rotorua 4.3%
21
Hunua 4.3%
22
Kaikoura 4.2%
23
East Coast Bays 4.1%
24
East Coast 4.1%
25
Helensville 4.0%
26
Hamilton East 4.0%
27
Napier 4.0%
28
Whanganui 3.9%
29
Pakuranga 3.9%
30
Hamilton West 3.8%
31
Otaki 3.8%
32
Papakura 3.6%
33
West Coast Tasman 3.6%
34
Clutha Southland 3.5%
35
Palmerston North 3.5%
36
Waimakariri 3.5%
37
Te Atatu 3.4%
38
Rimutaka 3.3%
39
Waitaki 3.2%
40
Nelson 3.2%
41
Northcote 3.0%
42
New Lynn 3.0%
43
Botany 3.0%
44
Waitakere 3.0%
45
Manurewa 2.9%
46
Selwyn 2.8%
47
North Shore 2.8%
48
Mt Roskill 2.8%
49
Wigram 2.8%
50
Rangitata 2.7%
51
Hutt South 2.6%
52
Ilam 2.6%
53
New Plymouth 2.6%
54
Invercargill 2.5%
55
Auckland Central 2.5%
56
Christchurch East 2.4%
57
Mana 2.4%
58
Maungakiekie 2.4%
59
Christchurch Central 2.2%
60
Ohariu 2.2%
61
Mangere 2.1%
62
Mt Albert 2.1%
63
Port Hills 2.1%
64
Tamaki 2.0%
65
Manukau East 1.9%
66
Rongotai 1.8%
67
Dunedin South 1.8%
68
Dunedin North 1.8%
69
Epsom 1.7%
70
Wellington Central 1.4%
The combination of Conservatives and Maori as centre parties may seem strange but they were the only two parties saying they could support either National or Labour, and in turn not ruled out by either. After the Maori seats Rodney is next highest with 6.7% for centre parties, followed by Northland and Rangitikei. The median electorate was Palmerston North on 3.5% The lowest electorates for the centre were Wellington Central and Epsom.
- 40 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
LEFT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Labour/Greens/NZ First/Mana)
1
Mangere 82.5%
2
Te Tai Tokerau 77.6%
3
Manukau East 77.3%
4
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 76.8%
5
Hauraki-Waikato 76.3%
6
Tamaki Makaurau 75.3%
7
Waiariki 71.4%
8
Manurewa 69.6%
9
Te Tai Hauauru 69.4%
10
Te Tai Tonga 69.0%
11
Dunedin North 63.5%
12
Rongotai 63.4%
13
Mt Albert 59.3%
14
Wellington Central 57.8%
15
Dunedin South 55.9%
16
Mana 55.9%
17
New Lynn 55.8%
18
Mt Roskill 55.8%
19
Waitakere 54.8%
20
Hutt South 54.0%
21
Te Atatu 53.4%
22
Auckland Central 52.7%
23
Port Hills 52.4%
24
Maungakiekie 52.0%
25
Christchurch Central 51.0%
26
Palmerston North 50.3%
27
Wigram 50.0%
28
Christchurch East 49.8%
29
Rimutaka 49.6%
30
Nelson 49.0%
31
Otaki 47.5%
32
West Coast Tasman 47.4%
33
Whanganui 46.1%
34
Hamilton West 46.1%
35
Ohariu 45.0%
36
Napier 44.9%
37
Invercargill 44.2%
38
East Coast 43.8%
39
Hamilton East 42.2%
40
Rotorua 42.1%
41
New Plymouth 42.0%
42
Northcote 41.9%
43
Papakura 41.7%
44
Whangarei 41.3%
45
Wairarapa 41.2%
46
Rangitata 40.9%
47
Northland 40.9%
48
Coromandel 40.7%
49
Tukituki 40.0%
50
Tauranga 38.8%
51
Waitaki 38.7%
52
Rangitikei 38.1%
53
Waimakariri 37.9%
54
Kaikoura 37.6%
55
Ilam 36.7%
56
Taupo 36.6%
57
Bay of Plenty 35.3%
58
Botany 33.5%
59
Selwyn 32.5%
60
North Shore 32.1%
61
Waikato 31.8%
62
Taranaki-King Country 31.7%
63
Hunua 30.6%
64
Pakuranga 30.6%
65
Epsom 30.4%
66
East Coast Bays 30.4%
67
Tamaki 30.4%
68
Clutha Southland 29.9%
69
Rodney 29.0%
70
Helensville 27.8%
Mangere at 82.5% had the highest left vote followed by Te Tai Tokerau and Manukau East. 27 seats in total had a left vote over 50%. The median electorate was Ohariu on 45.0%. 21 seats have a total left vote of under 40%. The lowest electorates were Helensville, Rodney and Clutha-Southland, all under 30%.
- 41 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
RIGHT – LEFT 2011 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE
1
Helensville 39.9%
2
Epsom 37.0%
3
Tamaki 36.8%
4
Clutha Southland 35.6%
5
Rodney 34.7%
6
East Coast Bays 34.5%
7
Pakuranga 34.4%
8
Hunua 33.9%
9
North Shore 32.5%
10
Selwyn 31.8%
11
Taranaki-King Country 31.3%
12
Waikato 30.8%
13
Botany 29.6%
14
Bay of Plenty 24.1%
15
Ilam 23.5%
16
Taupo 21.8%
17
Waimakariri 20.1%
18
Kaikoura 19.8%
19
Waitaki 18.6%
20
Rangitikei 18.2%
21
Tauranga 17.1%
22
Tukituki 14.7%
23
Rangitata 14.6%
24
Coromandel 13.5%
25
New Plymouth 12.8%
26
Papakura 12.4%
27
Northcote 12.4%
28
Wairarapa 12.4%
29
Whangarei 11.6%
30
Northland 11.4%
31
Hamilton East 11.0%
32
Rotorua 10.8%
33
East Coast 7.9%
34
Invercargill 7.7%
35
Ohariu 7.1%
36
Napier 5.5%
37
Hamilton West 3.3%
38
Whanganui 3.0%
39
Otaki 0.6%
40
West Coast Tasman 0.6%
41
Nelson -1.9%
42
Christchurch East -2.8%
43
Rimutaka -3.2%
44
Wigram -4.1%
45
Palmerston North -4.8%
46
Christchurch Central -5.0%
47
Maungakiekie -6.8%
48
Port Hills -7.5%
49
Auckland Central -9.1%
50
Te Atatu -11.0%
51
Hutt South -11.3%
52
Waitakere -13.3%
53
Dunedin South -14.6%
54
Mana -14.8%
55
Mt Roskill -14.8%
56
New Lynn -15.2%
57
Wellington Central -17.5%
58
Mt Albert -21.4%
59
Rongotai -29.1%
60
Dunedin North -29.8%
61
Manurewa -42.6%
62
Te Tai Tonga -53.7%
63
Manukau East -57.0%
64
Te Tai Hauauru -61.3%
65
Waiariki -65.5%
66
Tamaki Makaurau -66.7%
67
Hauraki-Waikato -67.6%
68
Mangere -67.7%
69
Te Tai Tokerau -68.1%
70
Ikaroa-Rawhiti -70.6%
Helensville had the largest margin between the vote for the right and the left at 39.9%. They are followed by Epsom and Tamaki. 17 seats have a greater than 20% gap, and 40 seats (out of 70) have the right with more votes than the left. In 30 seats the left got more votes than the right, In 21 of those seats, by more than 10%. The median electorate was Ohariu with the right 7.1% ahead of the left. The seven Maori seats and South Auckland are most favourable to the left with party vote margins of over 40%. The seat with the highest right-left margin Labour won was West Coast-Tasman at +0.6%. The seat with the lowest right-left margin that National won was Auckland Central at -9.1%.
- 42 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Christchurch East 8.4% 47.0% 38.6%
2
Wigram 5.2% 46.0% 40.8%
3
Waimakariri 5.1% 58.0% 52.9%
4
Christchurch Central 4.9% 45.9% 41.0%
5
Selwyn 4.5% 64.3% 59.7%
6
Dunedin South 4.2% 41.3% 37.1%
7
Port Hills 3.9% 44.9% 40.9%
8
Te Tai Tonga 3.4% 15.3% 12.0%
9
Rangitata 2.3% 55.5% 53.2%
10
Ilam 2.2% 60.2% 58.1%
11
Rimutaka 1.8% 46.4% 44.6%
12
Kaikoura 1.6% 57.4% 55.9%
13
Waitaki 1.6% 57.2% 55.7%
14
Dunedin North 1.2% 33.7% 32.6%
15
Nelson 1.1% 47.1% 46.0%
16
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 1.1% 6.2% 5.2%
17
Clutha Southland 1.0% 65.5% 64.5%
18
Te Tai Hauauru 1.0% 8.1% 7.1%
19
Palmerston North 0.9% 45.5% 44.6%
20
Invercargill 0.8% 51.9% 51.1%
21
Mana 0.7% 41.1% 40.4%
22
Hauraki-Waikato 0.7% 8.7% 8.0%
23
Hutt South 0.7% 42.7% 42.0%
24
West Coast Tasman 0.6% 48.0% 47.4%
25
Taupo 0.5% 58.4% 57.9%
26
New Plymouth 0.4% 54.7% 54.3%
27
Tamaki Makaurau 0.4% 8.6% 8.2%
28
Ohariu 0.2% 52.1% 51.9%
29
Waiariki 0.1% 5.9% 5.8%
30
Rongotai 0.0% 34.2% 34.2%
31
Wellington Central -0.1% 40.2% 40.4%
32
Otaki -0.2% 48.2% 48.4%
33
Wairarapa -0.3% 53.5% 53.9%
34
Tukituki -0.4% 54.7% 55.1%
35
Te Tai Tokerau -0.5% 9.5% 10.0%
36
East Coast -0.8% 51.6% 52.4%
37
Rotorua -0.9% 52.9% 53.8%
38
Whanganui -0.9% 49.1% 50.0%
39
Auckland Central -1.1% 43.6% 44.7%
40
Napier -1.1% 50.4% 51.5%
41
Hamilton West -1.5% 49.4% 50.8%
42
Rangitikei -1.6% 56.3% 57.9%
43
Whangarei -1.6% 52.9% 54.5%
44
Tamaki -1.7% 67.2% 68.9%
45
Hamilton East -1.8% 53.2% 55.0%
46
Mt Albert -1.9% 37.9% 39.8%
47
North Shore -1.9% 64.6% 66.5%
48
Tauranga -1.9% 56.0% 57.9%
49
Epsom -2.1% 67.4% 69.5%
50
Waikato -2.1% 62.7% 64.8%
51
Taranaki-King Country -2.4% 63.0% 65.4%
52
Northcote -2.4% 54.3% 56.7%
53
Rodney -2.6% 63.7% 66.3%
54
Coromandel -2.6% 54.2% 56.8%
55
Pakuranga -2.8% 65.1% 67.8%
56
Bay of Plenty -2.9% 59.4% 62.3%
57
East Coast Bays -2.9% 64.9% 67.8%
58
Maungakiekie -3.0% 45.2% 48.1%
59
Te Atatu -3.1% 42.5% 45.6%
60
Helensville -3.5% 67.6% 71.2%
61
Mangere -3.5% 14.9% 18.4%
62
Botany -3.7% 63.1% 66.8%
63
Waitakere -3.8% 41.5% 45.3%
64
New Lynn -4.1% 40.6% 44.6%
65
Papakura -4.3% 54.1% 58.4%
66
Northland -4.3% 52.2% 56.6%
67
Hunua -5.2% 64.5% 69.7%
68
Mt Roskill -5.4% 41.0% 46.4%
69
Manukau East -6.0% 20.3% 26.3%
70
Manurewa -6.4% 27.0% 33.4%
The largest increase in right vote was Christchurch East at 8.4% and then Wigram at 5.2%. The top five increases are all in or by Christchurch. Next after that was Dunedin South. 30 of 70 electorates had an increase in the party vote for the right. The median change was Te Tai Tokerau on -0.5% The largest drops in support for the right was Manurewa, Manukau East, Mt Roskill and Hunua – all over 5% drops.
- 43 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 08 TO 11
Change 2011 2008
1
Te Tai Tokerau 20.7% 77.6% 56.9%
2
Tamaki Makaurau 15.5% 75.3% 59.8%
3
Waiariki 15.3% 71.4% 56.2%
4
Mangere 14.9% 82.5% 67.6%
5
Hauraki-Waikato 14.8% 76.3% 61.5%
6
Manukau East 11.2% 77.3% 66.2%
7
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 10.9% 76.8% 65.9%
8
Te Tai Hauauru 9.8% 69.4% 59.6%
9
Manurewa 9.5% 69.6% 60.1%
10
Te Tai Tonga 6.1% 69.0% 63.0%
11
Mt Roskill 5.2% 55.8% 50.5%
12
Waitakere 4.3% 54.8% 50.5%
13
Papakura 3.5% 41.7% 38.1%
14
New Lynn 3.4% 55.8% 52.4%
15
Botany 3.1% 33.5% 30.4%
16
Maungakiekie 3.0% 52.0% 48.9%
17
Te Atatu 2.9% 53.4% 50.5%
18
Hunua 2.6% 30.6% 28.0%
19
Mt Albert 2.4% 59.3% 57.0%
20
Epsom 1.6% 30.4% 28.8%
21
Bay of Plenty 1.5% 35.3% 33.8%
22
Northcote 1.5% 41.9% 40.4%
23
Helensville 1.3% 27.8% 26.4%
24
Northland 1.3% 40.9% 39.5%
25
East Coast Bays 1.2% 30.4% 29.2%
26
Tauranga 1.0% 38.8% 37.8%
27
Tamaki 1.0% 30.4% 29.4%
28
North Shore 0.7% 32.1% 31.4%
29
Pakuranga 0.5% 30.6% 30.1%
30
Hamilton West 0.5% 46.1% 45.6%
31
Taranaki-King Country 0.5% 31.7% 31.2%
32
Rongotai 0.4% 63.4% 62.9%
33
Wellington Central 0.4% 57.8% 57.4%
34
Hamilton East 0.4% 42.2% 41.9%
35
Coromandel 0.2% 40.7% 40.5%
36
Rotorua 0.1% 42.1% 42.0%
37
Mana -0.2% 55.9% 56.1%
38
Ohariu -0.2% 45.0% 45.3%
39
Auckland Central -0.3% 52.7% 53.0%
40
Whanganui -0.5% 46.1% 46.7%
41
Waikato -0.5% 31.8% 32.4%
42
New Plymouth -0.6% 42.0% 42.6%
43
Napier -0.7% 44.9% 45.6%
44
East Coast -0.7% 43.8% 44.5%
45
Hutt South -0.8% 54.0% 54.9%
46
Whangarei -0.9% 41.3% 42.2%
47
Rangitikei -0.9% 38.1% 39.0%
48
Dunedin North -0.9% 63.5% 64.4%
49
Invercargill -1.2% 44.2% 45.4%
50
West Coast Tasman -1.6% 47.4% 49.0%
51
Otaki -1.7% 47.5% 49.2%
52
Rodney -1.8% 29.0% 30.8%
53
Wairarapa -2.1% 41.2% 43.2%
54
Nelson -2.1% 49.0% 51.1%
55
Palmerston North -2.1% 50.3% 52.4%
56
Tukituki -2.2% 40.0% 42.2%
57
Clutha Southland -2.7% 29.9% 32.6%
58
Rimutaka -2.7% 49.6% 52.3%
59
Rangitata -2.8% 40.9% 43.7%
60
Taupo -2.9% 36.6% 39.5%
61
Ilam -2.9% 36.7% 39.6%
62
Kaikoura -2.9% 37.6% 40.6%
63
Waitaki -3.0% 38.7% 41.7%
64
Port Hills -3.9% 52.4% 56.3%
65
Dunedin South -4.6% 55.9% 60.5%
66
Christchurch Central -4.8% 51.0% 55.8%
67
Selwyn -5.6% 32.5% 38.0%
68
Wigram -5.8% 50.0% 55.8%
69
Waimakariri -6.4% 37.9% 44.3%
70
Christchurch East -8.6% 49.8% 58.4%
The largest increase in left vote were five of the Maori seats, plus Mangere and Manukau East. They all went up by over 10%, with Mana making an impact there. 36 of 70 electorates had an increase in the party vote for the left. The median change was Coromandel on +0.2% The largest drops in support for the left was the Christchurch seats and Dunedin South.
- 44 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
2011 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS
1
Wellington Central 39,372
2
Rodney 38,563
3
Waitaki 38,541
4
Ohariu 37,828
5
Tamaki 37,782
6
Otaki 37,633
7
North Shore 37,181
8
Rongotai 36,879
9
Selwyn 36,851
10
Epsom 36,769
11
Tauranga 36,620
12
Bay of Plenty 36,177
13
Waimakariri 36,016
14
Rangitata 35,931
15
Helensville 35,809
16
Hunua 35,411
17
Nelson 35,267
18
Dunedin South 35,251
19
Wairarapa 35,021
20
Coromandel 34,564
21
Whangarei 34,512
22
Mana 34,425
23
Rimutaka 34,333
24
Auckland Central 34,206
25
Ilam 34,169
26
Kaikoura 34,128
27
Tukituki 34,098
28
New Plymouth 33,932
29
Napier 33,907
30
Maungakiekie 33,831
31
West Coast Tasman 33,766
32
Taupo 33,747
33
New Lynn 33,685
34
East Coast Bays 33,535
35
Port Hills 33,282
36
Hamilton East 33,249
37
Palmerston North 33,038
38
Northcote 33,030
39
Mt Albert 32,999
40
Hutt South 32,914
41
Northland 32,665
42
Pakuranga 32,595
43
Invercargill 32,355
44
Mt Roskill 32,330
45
Wigram 32,230
46
Hamilton West 32,049
47
Whanganui 31,858
48
Clutha Southland 31,831
49
Rangitikei 31,731
50
Papakura 31,621
51
Rotorua 31,517
52
Waikato 31,467
53
Waitakere 31,118
54
Taranaki-King Country 31,038
55
Te Atatu 30,835
56
Dunedin North 29,965
57
East Coast 29,743
58
Botany 29,034
59
Christchurch East 28,749
60
Christchurch Central 28,026
61
Manukau East 26,960
62
Manurewa 25,277
63
Mangere 25,007
64
Te Tai Tokerau 19,782
65
Waiariki 18,807
66
Tamaki Makaurau 18,648
67
Ikaroa-Rawhiti 18,262
68
Te Tai Hauauru 18,188
69
Hauraki-Waikato 17,893
70
Te Tai Tonga 17,629 Wellington Central again had the highest number of valid voters at 39,372 followed by Rodney and Waitaki. The median electorate was Port Hills with 33,282 votes. The mean was 31,964. After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland and then Christchurch Central.
- 45 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
2011 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS
NAT LAB GRE NZF CON MAO MAN ACT UF
1st 56 14
2nd
7 55 2 5 1
3rd
1 1 51 12 1 4
4th
0 13 55 1 1
5th
1 3 3 58 1 3 1
6th
5 1 3 4 4 44 9
7th
9 16 6 12 27
8th
41 6 8 15
9th
1 48 3 18
This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1
st, 2
nd, 3
rd etc. in the party vote. This is out of the
seven parliamentary parties plus NZ First only. National won the party vote in 56 of the 70 seats, was 2
nd in 7 and 3
rd to 6
th or the seven Maori seats.
Labour won the party vote in 14 seats and was 2
nd in 55 seats. In Wellington Central they came third.
The Greens were 2
rd in 2 seats and 3rd in 51 seats. Median placing was 3
rd.
NZ First were 3
rd in the party vote in 12 seats Median placing was 4th.
Conservatives were 5
th in 58 seats. Median placing was 5th.
The Maori Party were 2
nd in five seats. Median placing was 8
th.
Mana was 2
nd in one seat and 3
rd in 4 seats, Median placing was 9
th.
ACT were 5
th in 3 seats. Median placing was 6
th.
United Future were 5
th in 3 seats. Median placing was 7
th.
- 46 -
2011 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]
2011 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS
NAT LAB GRE NZF CON MAO MAN ACT UF
1st 41 23 3 1 1 1
2nd
21 44 1 2 2
3rd
1 3 53 7 2 2 2
4th
6 18 26 3 9 3
5th
5 22 5 19 5
6th
2 1 2 6 16 6
7th
2 1 3 5
8th
1 2 This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1
st, 2
nd, 3
rd etc. in the electorate vote. This is out
of the parliamentary parties (and Conservatives) only. National won the electorate vote in 41 seats, was 2
nd in 21 of them and 3
rd in one seat (Ohariu-Belmont).
Labour won the electorate vote in 23 of the 70 seats, was 2
nd in 44 seats and 3
rd in three seats (Epsom,
Rodney and Waiariki). The Greens were 3
rd in 53 seats.
NZ First were 3
rd in seven seats.
The Maori Party won three Maori seats, were 2
nd in two others and 3
rd in the remaining two.
Mana won one seat, were 2
nd in two seats, 3
rd in two seats and 4
th in three seats (including Manukau East).
Conservatives were 2
nd in one seat (Rodney) and 3
rd in two further seats (Botany and Pakuranga).