2010 Oil Spill: Trajectory Projections Based on Ensemble Drifter Analyses*

Y.-L. Chang, L.-Y. Oey, F.-H. Xu, H.-F. Lu and A.FujisakiPrinceton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

* Chang, Oey, Xu, Lu & Fujisaki, 2011: 2010 Oil Spill - trajectory projections based on ensemble drifter analyses. Ocean Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s10236-011-0397-4. PDF Format; also available from:http://www.aos.princeton.edu/WWWPUBLIC/PROFS/publications.html

2010 Oil Spill in Gulf of Mexico

It may take 2~3 months to stop leaking

satellite image on May/24Photo by US coast guard

Method: simulated drifters

MODEL: Princeton Ocean Model• Resolution: 3~5km/5~10km• Location: accident site and 4 surrounding grid

points.• Time: Apr/21~• Frequency: Daily release, using 3 hourly data• Depth: surface/ 800m

Apr/21-Jun/20, 2-Month Ensemble Visitation Frequency + Uncertainty

Residence Time (days)

04/21

05/05

06/20

tracking

Z=-800m

Apr/21~Jun/20 (60days)