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2010 FIFA World Cup SAPIA readiness submission
19 May 2010
Presentation outline
Background to the petroleum industry Critical facts about the industry
Industry’s interdependence map
2010 FIFA World Cup readiness
Risk identified and mitigating steps
Transnet Strike – Current Scenario
Potential Impact of Transnet Strike – Worst Scenario
19 May 2010
Critical facts about the industry
The industry is interdependent and shares logistic facilities such as depots, pipelines and rail
Gauteng is the biggest market and will also host the majority of the games. It is critical for the industry to ensure un-interrupted supply for this market
60% of ORTIA jet fuel supply comes from Natref via a dedicated pipeline.
40% of RSA petrol and diesel supply is sourced from inland refineries and the balance from coastal refineries and imports.
Competition commission exemption was granted to allow enhanced logistic planning for the 2010 FIFA World Cup
The industry and DoE are working together through the Ministerial Task Team (MTT) and Logistics Planning Team (LPT) primarily focusing on jet fuel readiness and cooperation on logistics
19 May 2010
The South African liquid fuels Industry interdependence
TransnetPipelinesCrude Oil
Consumer
RefineryTankfarm
CoastalRefineries
RefineryTankfarm
InlandRefineries
StorageDepots
Retail stations
SCI Sasolburg
Secunda
SynfuelsTankfarm
Road tanker
PipelineDJP
(FinalProducts)
TransnetRail
Storage
Storage
Commercial customers
TransnetPipelines
Retail station tank
SBMSingle Buoy Mooring
(Isipingo)
Roadtanker
Storage
Petrol and Diesel Critical sites identified for SWC period Credit card acceptance at critical sites Expected throughput for period to increase by
10% July prices only to be changed on 2nd
Wednesday Additional trucks & drivers secured Depots facilities to be optimised around critical
feeder sites
2010 FIFA World Cup readiness
Jet Fuel 40% increase forecasted in jet fuel
demand Stock levels at ORTIA
19 May – 9.0 days (42 634 m³) Planned end of May – 9 days
Rail from coast Rail increased from 15 RTCs to 40
per day
22 Days to
Kickoff…
Refinery Readiness Refineries status
All Refineries fully operational Jet fuel - Daily injection – 3700 m³ through pipeline from
NatrefCritical plants and equipment identified and closely
monitored Planned stock levels – 7-9 days from May
Imports Products are imported to balance demand.
Shutdowns No planned shutdowns during world cup that will impact fuel
production
Risks identified and mitigating steps
Risk Impact Mitigation
Unplanned ORTIA Jet pipeline shutdown more than 5 days
Stock of Jet depleted to
critical level (less than 3 days
stock)
Likelihood very low and ability
to recover within 2 days
Capacity to build 5 more
days stock at Natref
Unplanned DJP pipeline shutdown more than 3 days
Depots will run dry between 2-
5 days
Gantry congestion at
refineries
Work with Transnet to effect
backup plans
Direct bridging by road to
critical customers
Critical sites running dry Disrupt World Cup logistics
plan and those of soccer fans
Additional trucks and drivers
appointed
Critical maintenance calls at
sites will be closed out
Timing is a crucial factor to effecting mitigation plans for 2010 SWC kick-offTiming is a crucial factor to effecting mitigation plans for 2010 SWC kick-off
Transnet Strike – Current ScenarioUpdate
Rail and Ports are impactedRail fed depots getting full (Tarlton, Rustenburg)Sporadic market stockouts, especially ex Rail supplied depotsRefinery depot gantries – heavily congested (Secunda, Sasolburg)
Prolonged Strike Activity implies:
Dealers will go into “panic mode” – fill up tanks (2005 industry experience relived)More stockouts at service stations and depotsRefineries may shut down due to tanks being fullSupply crisis, threatening country’s economy and the WC2010 event
19 May 2010
Potential impact of Transnet strike – Worst Scenario Assumptions • All Transnet services disrupted: Port, Pipelines & Rail
• Road movement – no impact
Market Refinery
Impact ORTIA empty after 9 days
Service stations will be empty after 3-6
days
Commercial customers also impacted after
2-7 days
Chemical industries highly affected
Eskom affected limited back-up for coal
World Cup severely impacted
Natref at reduced rate for 7 days, and then
shutdown
Total Synfuels shutdown after 5-7 days
Coastal refineries will operate at reduced rate to
complete shutdown
Significant additional costs
Safety impact due to higher risk during start up and
shutdowns of plants
Environmental impact due to flaring of chemical, etc.
Contingency plans Maximize pipe & RTC deliveries to ORTIA
while still operational
Consider tankering at other airports
Allocate supply per region with approval
from DoE ( Potential Market allocation)
Reduced rate to stay online longer
Recommendation Speedy resolution of the strike
Recovery Plans Continued tankering to build up ORTIA
stocks
Push all available final product at the coast
into DJP to Gauteng for SWC
Start up of plants as soon as possible and safely (4-
7 days)
Evaluate all crude and final product import plans
CONTACT INFORMATION:
Maurice RadebeChairman
Office Address: Shanghai House, 52 Wierda Road West, Wierda Valley, Sandton, South Africa
Tel: +27 (0)11 783 7664Fax: +27 (0)11 783 5400
Email: [email protected]
